Hope Vs. Fact

[swissie]

Let's face it: A large number of farangs are dependent on their monthly money transfers from Europe/US etc... None of them like the strenghtening of the Bht against "Western-Currencies".

As I gather, most farangs here are in the believe, that this is a temporary phenomenon and "western-currencies" will "snap back" against the Bht eventually.

I disagree. Western-Economies are in a downward spiral, very much opposed to Asian-Economies. Such happenings are ALWAYS reflected in exchange-rates. And more: This is a long term trend and is detached from small daily exchange-rate fluctuations. And if finally the chinese are forced to adjust their artificially low exchange-rate upwards against the Dollar, this will take all other asian-currencies in toe (upwards, of course).

The Point: If the "bounce-back" of Western-Currencies never happens and the opposite occurs = The Bht gains another 10 to 25 % within the next 5 years ?!?

I think that such a scenario should be part of any farangs future plans concerning his stay in Thailand. Food for thaught.

Cheers.

[StreetCowboy]

Did you check the Yuan - dollar exchange rate

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=2Y

The exchange rate might stay the same, or go one way or another, but whatever happens to the exchange rate, a greater rate of development in Thailand will result in price rises in Thailand compared to Western countries.

C'est la vie, as you would say in England. Everybody loves to focus on the exchange rate, because its easy to track and draw pretty graphs, but the exchange rate is the effect, not the cause.

SC

[Phronesis]

Topic already discussed here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/624884-are-you-part-of-the-farang-detritus-layer/

[StreetCowboy]

Topic already discussed here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/624884-are-you-part-of-the-farang-detritus-layer/

Except Swissie does it in a pleasant and sympathetic manner without abusing his fellow posters and making himself look like an obnoxious fellow.

[soi41]

Topic already discussed here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/624884-are-you-part-of-the-farang-detritus-layer/

Except Swissie does it in a pleasant and sympathetic manner without abusing his fellow posters and making himself look like an obnoxious fellow.

Oh no not another "postmaster" judging his fellow posters and their way of posting.

I think that the OP of the other thread was more straight and honest. Maybe not PC according to some, but IMO a better thread!

[Neeranam]

StreetCowboy, on 22 Apr 2013 - 21:12, said:

Phronesis, on 22 Apr 2013 - 21:05, said:

Topic already discussed here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/624884-are-you-part-of-the-farang-detritus-layer/

Except Swissie does it in a pleasant and sympathetic manner without abusing his fellow posters and making himself look like an obnoxious fellow.

I agree - certainly food for thought.

BTW, What kind of pie is that? - looks fair fine.

[yourauntbob]

Until the "west" figures out how to get out of the financial mess they put themselves in, the exchange rate is going to continue on its recent trend. Right now the only solution being offered is to monetize the debt. This means they continually print more money to pay off old debts. The more supply of anything (including currencies) the lower the value.

[StreetCowboy]

Until the "west" figures out how to get out of the financial mess they put themselves in, the exchange rate is going to continue on its recent trend. Right now the only solution being offered is to monetize the debt. This means they continually print more money to pay off old debts. The more supply of anything (including currencies) the lower the value.

Why would the Western countries want to stabilise the exchange rate? A declining currency brings in inflation, allowing wages and costs to drop i real terms without the loss of face of direct cuts (fiscal drag etc). What this inflation does is it robs creditors for the benefit of debtors. Unfortunate, for those who are living on their savings, unless those savings are invested as equity in productive assets.

SC

[Fgis]

Yes but we can still expect a big shxt disaster or war to happen here or something global in Asia thanks to north Korea maybe ? Then Euro will get better... lets hope !

[smokie36]

Yup...the Baht has been high for a couple of years. We are all doomed.

[robblok]

Soon English teachers will have more money as pensioners with their fixed income. Then the English teachers can bash the pensioners. now that would be a thing to see.

[Kitsune]

Soon English teachers will have more money as pensioners with their fixed income. Then the English teachers can bash the pensioners. now that would be a thing to see.

I doubt this

As Euro/Us economy declines, unemployed people rush to SEA to find work, flooding the market, so salaries are declining too

[theblether]

I don't know what the fixation is about other people's money, get on with your own life.

Incidentally OP, the US recently accepted that the Yuan had appreciated markedly against the dollar over the last few years, to my recollection the figure was around 20 odd percent. It caused some jaws to drop among lazy US politicians who up to that point were enjoying a bit of China bashing, then again I'm too lazy to go get the links to back up my argument so who am I to talk.

[theblether]

Soon English teachers will have more money as pensioners with their fixed income. Then the English teachers can bash the pensioners. now that would be a thing to see.

I doubt this

As Euro/Us economy declines, unemployed people rush to SEA to find work, flooding the market, so salaries are declining too

I'm away for a lie down.

Actually I'll be a hypocrite and go start a poll.

Edited April 23, 2013 by theblether

[robblok]

Soon English teachers will have more money as pensioners with their fixed income. Then the English teachers can bash the pensioners. now that would be a thing to see.

I doubt this

As Euro/Us economy declines, unemployed people rush to SEA to find work, flooding the market, so salaries are declining too

I'm away for a lie down.

Actually I'll be a hypocrite and go start a poll.

Was just having a bit of fun here as the English teachers are always bashed, so it would have been some nice revenge if it happened.

Myself I am also hit by the exchange rate but its out of my control, plus i make more then enough to cover it. Also i can increase income.. that is a bit hard if your on a fixed old age pension. I know of one guy that will have to leave the country because of the exchange rate and the fixed income. Its a shame but it will happen.

[theblether]

Soon English teachers will have more money as pensioners with their fixed income. Then the English teachers can bash the pensioners. now that would be a thing to see.

I doubt this

As Euro/Us economy declines, unemployed people rush to SEA to find work, flooding the market, so salaries are declining too

I'm away for a lie down.

Actually I'll be a hypocrite and go start a poll.

Was just having a bit of fun here as the English teachers are always bashed, so it would have been some nice revenge if it happened.

Myself I am also hit by the exchange rate but its out of my control, plus i make more then enough to cover it. Also i can increase income.. that is a bit hard if your on a fixed old age pension. I know of one guy that will have to leave the country because of the exchange rate and the fixed income. Its a shame but it will happen.

I wasn't having a go at you robblok, I can see the humour in your post.

There seems to be a subset that are salivating at the financial pain others are feeling, and they're preparing to feast on the torture still to come. It's not very pleasant you know.

There is only one statistic that interests me in regards to people's financial status here in LOS, I'll start the poll now.

[moe666]

I don't know what the fixation is about other people's money, get on with your own life.

Incidentally OP, the US recently accepted that the Yuan had appreciated markedly against the dollar over the last few years, to my recollection the figure was around 20 odd percent. It caused some jaws to drop among lazy US politicians who up to that point were enjoying a bit of China bashing, then again I'm too lazy to go get the links to back up my argument so who am I to talk.

YOU ARE THE BLETHER

[robblok]

@theblether

Yes there are people who really enjoy the pain of others, not a good thing at all. Like i said I know someone who has to leave Thailand because of the exchange rate and that is sad. I heard his story and talked with him as he needed someone to talk to. In his case an ex wife with a grudge and the exchange rate done him in. Its sad indeed

And I know you were not having a go at me, just tried to explain my post as it was made in jest and a bit of reality as English teachers do get bashed a lot. Some of my friends are English teachers nothing wrong with that.

[lovelomsak]

I am fairly certain as far as the thai baht and other currencies are concerned that it is just about at the leveling point right now. The American dollar has reached the rate of 28 baht to the dollar and this is where it will settle for the long term.It may go lower in the near future but will return to 28 in 4 to 5 months and from then on remain fairly constant. I cannot say for certain what will happen with European currencies but feel they will stabilize also at close to the rate you see now.

[tullynagardy]

As I`ve posted several times before (and need to be careful to avoid getting it deleted). The upward movement in the Thai economy is almost certain to come to an end sooner rather than later, and the baht will weaken with it. This is because -

1) Thailand is in the midst of a credit bubble, similar to Ireland and Spain 10 years ago. Money for cars and homes is far to easy to get, with little thought as to if you can pay it back or not. This has actually been highlighted by banks already with credit restrictions starting to be implemented in some areas. This bubble will soon burst.

2) Since its move from absolute monarchy just 80 years ago Thailand has had an astonishing 18 coups. It is simply inconceivable there wont be another soon.

3) A certain event I cannot mention will trigger point 2.

In short hand the upward movement of the baht relies on a stable political and economic background. Thailand hasnt had this in the 80 years of its existence (since it changed its name from Siam) so god knows why all you people think it will now.

[Beetlejuice]

Some years ago, there were several ways to escape the home countries and live a more prosperous and better quality life abroad.

Many of us had the best of both worlds, having the benefit of much lower living expenditure in Thailand and Western based higher incomes. This is why Thais used to believe that all farangs were rich, because in fact expats who obtained their incomes from abroad were on a much higher income bracket than the average Thais. An ordinary working class person in the West could be transformed into a high level middle class member of society here in Thailand.

But this is all changing. The banks, financial institutions and Governments have been busy ensuring that no one will ever make gains and escape the systems. It`s a sort of balancing act that no matter where we go, our financial situations will be mostly the same as if we back home and then progressively becoming poorer over a period of time.

This trend means that year by year we will need to find ever increasing amounts of our Western currencies to buy our Thai bahts and afford our living expenditures. We will continue making cut backs until the time arrives that we are no longer able to financially maintain ourselves here. And sadly, this is the way the situation appears to be heading.

I have retired in Thailand, now in my late 50s and still doing all right. But I do have serious concerns as to what my circumstances maybe within the few years if inflation continues to rise at this alarming rate and the bank interest and exchange rates fail to budge in the right direction.

I believe that the future in Thailand is now basically according to how fate decides which why it will go. What I do know for sure, is that for the present it is impossible to make any long term plans for the future here, most being, on a hope and a prayer.

Edited April 23, 2013 by Beetlejuice

[roamer]

As I`ve posted several times before (and need to be careful to avoid getting it deleted). The upward movement in the Thai economy is almost certain to come to an end sooner rather than later, and the baht will weaken with it. This is because -

1) Thailand is in the midst of a credit bubble, similar to Ireland and Spain 10 years ago. Money for cars and homes is far to easy to get, with little thought as to if you can pay it back or not. This has actually been highlighted by banks already with credit restrictions starting to be implemented in some areas. This bubble will soon burst.

2) Since its move from absolute monarchy just 80 years ago Thailand has had an astonishing 18 coups. It is simply inconceivable there wont be another soon.

3) A certain event I cannot mention will trigger point 2.

In short hand the upward movement of the baht relies on a stable political and economic background. Thailand hasnt had this in the 80 years of its existence (since it changed its name from Siam) so god knows why all you people think it will now.

Yes and that is only in Thailand. The idea that a region where China is the dominant power, facing evermore internal dissent, increasingly distrusted by its neghbours for it's territorial ambitions, is somehow going to emerge smoothly through uncharted waters is highly suspect to say the least.

And should things progress as you think they might, then it can only be a question of time before exporting economies find they are no longer competitive. I would say that is a very fine balance at present.

Topic title was Hope v Fact. How about this for a fact, over 70% of China's rich and privileged have either left or are planning to leave, doesn't seem like they have the same faith in Asia as the OP has.

Edited April 23, 2013 by roamer

[NeverSure]

As I`ve posted several times before (and need to be careful to avoid getting it deleted). The upward movement in the Thai economy is almost certain to come to an end sooner rather than later, and the baht will weaken with it. This is because -

1) Thailand is in the midst of a credit bubble, similar to Ireland and Spain 10 years ago. Money for cars and homes is far to easy to get, with little thought as to if you can pay it back or not. This has actually been highlighted by banks already with credit restrictions starting to be implemented in some areas. This bubble will soon burst.

2) Since its move from absolute monarchy just 80 years ago Thailand has had an astonishing 18 coups. It is simply inconceivable there wont be another soon.

3) A certain event I cannot mention will trigger point 2.

In short hand the upward movement of the baht relies on a stable political and economic background. Thailand hasnt had this in the 80 years of its existence (since it changed its name from Siam) so god knows why all you people think it will now.

[StreetCowboy]

.... How about this for a fact, over 70% of China's rich and privileged have either left or are planning to leave, doesn't seem like they have the same faith in Asia as the OP has.

That's a great fact, and one that I would have been proud to have made up myself, except that the supporting evidence may prove difficult to fabricate

[bangkokburning]

The only thing Thailand will be able to provide new arrivals that seek western lifestyle here is a warm climate, a pretty beach and a potential companion.

At these thb levels western food is every bit as expensive and more so as back home

Housing can be cheaper, a small pad - but that is ill suited for retirees. So you are looking at 20k minimum for a nice 1 bedroom.

Medical...no insurance for you!

Automobile related - same as home save for insurance.

Entertainment - bar fines aside, alcohol in bats and pubs is about the same as in the US.

Alcohol in general is more expensive in Thailand.

The situation with the THB will not appreciably change. Thailand is between a rock and hard place.

Better to stay in your home country and enjoy a long holiday during the cool season. Long holidays dont require any committment to anywhere as well. You are free to travel to other countries.

[topt]

As I`ve posted several times before (and need to be careful to avoid getting it deleted). The upward movement in the Thai economy is almost certain to come to an end sooner rather than later, and the baht will weaken with it. This is because -

1) Thailand is in the midst of a credit bubble, similar to Ireland and Spain 10 years ago. Money for cars and homes is far to easy to get, with little thought as to if you can pay it back or not. This has actually been highlighted by banks already with credit restrictions starting to be implemented in some areas. This bubble will soon burst.

2) Since its move from absolute monarchy just 80 years ago Thailand has had an astonishing 18 coups. It is simply inconceivable there wont be another soon.

3) A certain event I cannot mention will trigger point 2.

In short hand the upward movement of the baht relies on a stable political and economic background. Thailand hasnt had this in the 80 years of its existence (since it changed its name from Siam) so god knows why all you people think it will now.

At first glance all very rational arguments. However as someone pointed out in another thread how much effect was there on the baht when the airport was closed due to the occupation and more recently with the red shirt occupation of Central Bangkok and all the ensuing issues and then the flooding? It may have blinked but it certainly did not derail it.

It has been illogical to me and as Beetle Juice said makes it very difficult to plan effectively.

[Stradavarius37]

As I`ve posted several times before (and need to be careful to avoid getting it deleted). The upward movement in the Thai economy is almost certain to come to an end sooner rather than later, and the baht will weaken with it. This is because -

1) Thailand is in the midst of a credit bubble, similar to Ireland and Spain 10 years ago. Money for cars and homes is far to easy to get, with little thought as to if you can pay it back or not. This has actually been highlighted by banks already with credit restrictions starting to be implemented in some areas. This bubble will soon burst.

2) Since its move from absolute monarchy just 80 years ago Thailand has had an astonishing 18 coups. It is simply inconceivable there wont be another soon.

3) A certain event I cannot mention will trigger point 2.

In short hand the upward movement of the baht relies on a stable political and economic background. Thailand hasnt had this in the 80 years of its existence (since it changed its name from Siam) so god knows why all you people think it will now.

Funny - when I arrived in Thailand in 2003 the baht was at 41-42 to 1US. 10 years is a a mighty long bubble.....lol Should I hold my breath?

[morrobay]

On Bloomberg last nite there was a topic called : ' Is It Time To Get Out Of Emerging Markets ' I missed the discussion but the concensus to my understanding is that the foreign inflows into assets in Thailand are main reason that Baht has appreciated beyond fundamentals. So if there is a reversal then baht should depreciate. Hope this is a fact.

Edited April 24, 2013 by morrobay

[tullynagardy]

As I`ve posted several times before (and need to be careful to avoid getting it deleted). The upward movement in the Thai economy is almost certain to come to an end sooner rather than later, and the baht will weaken with it. This is because -

1) Thailand is in the midst of a credit bubble, similar to Ireland and Spain 10 years ago. Money for cars and homes is far to easy to get, with little thought as to if you can pay it back or not. This has actually been highlighted by banks already with credit restrictions starting to be implemented in some areas. This bubble will soon burst.

2) Since its move from absolute monarchy just 80 years ago Thailand has had an astonishing 18 coups. It is simply inconceivable there wont be another soon.

3) A certain event I cannot mention will trigger point 2.

In short hand the upward movement of the baht relies on a stable political and economic background. Thailand hasnt had this in the 80 years of its existence (since it changed its name from Siam) so god knows why all you people think it will now.

Funny - when I arrived in Thailand in 2003 the baht was at 41-42 to 1US. 10 years is a a mighty long bubble.....lol Should I hold my breath?

I suspect you either missed the point, or more likely, don`t understand the point I was making

Edited April 24, 2013 by tullynagardy

[tullynagardy]

On Bloomberg last nite there was a topic called : ' Is It Time To Get Out Of Emerging Markets ' I missed the discussion but the concensus to my understanding is that the foreign inflows into assets in Thailand are main reason that Baht has appreciated beyond fundamentals. So if there is a reversal then baht should depreciate. Hope this is a fact.

It already is!!! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/baht-falls-for-third-day-on-speculation-authorities-to-intervene.html