You Got Hurt By The Strong Baht, But Are You Ready For The Next Surprise…Inflation?

[ExpatOilWorker]

I have more important things to worry about, like getting this goddam rubber band off my 25 bht. breakfast!

Depending on your skill set and learning ability, that bag of breakfast could be worth 50 baht before you master the rubber band technic.

[Thailand1977]

Bring it on, my next house in the UK just got cheaper.

Post #7,

Also, put your money into assets that are more likely to rise with

inflation. I think property is a good bet at the moment, especially in

the UK and USA.

Me too, hence my intent to buy another property in the Uk this summer, anyone got any better ideas, I am all ears.

This is Thaivisa where the most financially savvy people on the planet who only ever make profitable investment congregate .... no doubt someone will be along in a moment to give you a minimum 25%PA growth tip.

IMHO Property maybe OK if you're in it for the long haul, ie 20 years, as it used to be, but with QE and 0.5% interest rates for almost 5 years along with First Buy and the endless other govt props prices have stagnated or dropped in all parts of Britain except certain parts of the South.

What happens when one of these props is no longer viable?

Also its an illiquid asset that is easily taxed, or could easily have its tax exemptions removed.

So, you can't afford to buy property. Some can, and now is a great time to invest in property in the UK. Of course, you have to pick a good location. Prime London up over 50% in 3 years. Sounds like a pretty good return to me.

There are always people like you saying why now is the wrong time, blah, blah, blah. But there are always people like you saying that. In the meantime, others are making money. Property is as good an investment as any at the moment. Certainly better than holding cash. Property tends to rise with inflation, but cash just disappears into nothing.

What tax exemptions are you talking about that could be removed? UK property doesn't have any that I can think off.

Where would you invest? Don't knock others if you can't make any sensible suggestions yourself. Sitting scared and holding cash isn't really an option.

No i cant afford to pay 200K for a 50m2 house in SE England im not that rich or stupid, i am waiting for one of the props i mentioned to be taken out the equation, but as im getting a whopping 3% return on my money this is more then id get if i bought a depreciating asset.

But i congratulate you on being so wealthy at this moment, but are you buying with cash or using the banks money to do so? besides if i had a spare 200K id start a business and employ people .. im not a parasite who'd prefer to be part of the scam to keep young British families as renters forever more ... clearly you are.

The tax breaks i talk of, are allowing B2L landlords to offset rental income against mortgages aswell as goods purchased for the place, and effectively claim that renting a house is some kind of business ... the government is. financially screwed and they will take money from the easiest places and they dont come much easier than rental property.

PS Yes 5 years ago would have been good to buy london property if one was to sell, but are you going to tell me you knew QE and 0.5% aswell as the endless props to the market were going to be put in place? Im of the opinion the ponzi scam cant go on for much longer and i admit i was wrong to think it'd go on past 2008 you see i am the one person on here who hasnt played the rigged market to perfection. But if id bought the correct numbers on the lottery at the weekend id have made a 5 million percent profit isnt hindsight a wonderful thing.

Edited May 2, 2013 by Thailand1977

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Bring it on, my next house in the UK just got cheaper.

Post #7,

Also, put your money into assets that are more likely to rise with

inflation. I think property is a good bet at the moment, especially in

the UK and USA.

Me too, hence my intent to buy another property in the Uk this summer, anyone got any better ideas, I am all ears.

This is Thaivisa where the most financially savvy people on the planet who only ever make profitable investment congregate .... no doubt someone will be along in a moment to give you a minimum 25%PA growth tip.

IMHO Property maybe OK if you're in it for the long haul, ie 20 years, as it used to be, but with QE and 0.5% interest rates for almost 5 years along with First Buy and the endless other govt props prices have stagnated or dropped in all parts of Britain except certain parts of the South.

What happens when one of these props is no longer viable?

Also its an illiquid asset that is easily taxed, or could easily have its tax exemptions removed.

Many properties in Florida are worth less than they were 20 years ago.

I'm sure other parts of the west are in a similar situation.

[Robert2006]

Robert2006, on 02 May 2013 - 01:16, said:

yoshiwara

Head in the sand, I would imagine you’re so blinded by your psychological gold-bug mental block you missed the move up on this investment class. I didn’t read anyone expressing here that buying gold at any price level was a wise move.

Gold might have been a dead loss for 25 years but it’s sure done well over the last 10 years or am I wrong? What’s the matter don’t you like to make money? I guess not if it has anything to do with gold. These are different economic conditions this isn’t 1980 its 2013.

You’ve got some perverse chip on your shoulder about gold, I’m no gold-bug I follow trends I don’t give a hoot what the investment class is, you would have to be hopeless not to recognize commodity prices were going to rise in the face

of all this money creation.

Once you have acknowledged that gold goes up and gold goes down then it is another asset to be traded. That is a reasonable place to be (ie trading ETFs and so on). And that is to be distinguished from the gold bugs going all in because the end of the world is approaching and all other assets are doomed and thinking gold coins are the way to protect against a cruel, cruel, world. Personally I don't like any asset that doesn't generate income (except art) and particularly one whose price doesn't rest on fundamentals and subject to wild swings. Yes its 2013. Me? My poison of choice has been Hong Kong property and some would argue that that has had its wild swings and dodgy fundamentals as well. But I do like the income so I go along for the ride and life is a little interesting there.

I guess we do have some common ground; the majority of my investment base is real estate and the income streams they generate. I will always have the bulk of my assets in real estate, I’m not really concerned with the swings in the properties values because I’m not selling, with those investments I’m primarily concerned with maintaining the cash flows.

I know many people that listened to individuals like you frightening them out of gold investing; I don’t see how you can defend your advice it’s been proven that you were 100% wrong, it’s been one of the best moves any investor could have made over the last 10 years. Gold may not produce an income stream but the capital gain sure has been nice, wouldn’t you say? If someone came in

late and bought high then yes they got hurt, timing is a key factor in any investment.

Are you familiar with the fact that there has never been a fiat currency that has lasted more than 40 years in the history of the world? The US canceled the convertibility of the dollar to gold in 1971 that was 42 years ago. The world’s reserve currency the USD is 100% fiat it derives its value from central bank control and government regulation, it’s a fancy looking piece of paper. This is not end of the world, the sky is falling, dooms day prediction rhetoric from some gold bug, these are facts. I’m not saying the USD will become worthless but the most extensively held currency in the world is indisputably under pressure and that will cause inflation of hard assets which is exactly what it has done.

Historical cycles typically repeat themselves and history shows that investing in hard assets is a long-established method to protect against currency devaluation and the type of economic conditions that exist today. Central banks and governments can

render a currency worthless but they can’t make your real estate in Hong Kong worthless, they can’t make your art worthless and they can’t make gold worthless, hard assets always have a value.

I’m retired and it’s nice not working but at times like this I wish I had not retired so early. If I were buying right now and I’m not my portfolio is established my positions entered into many years ago, I’d be buying silver at 60/1 not gold or the top tier gold and silver mining shares, they are incredibly inexpensive right now. It sure would be nice to have 5,000 ounces of silver tucked away for the next 10 years and see what happens.

[davejones]

Bring it on, my next house in the UK just got cheaper.

Post #7,

Also, put your money into assets that are more likely to rise with

inflation. I think property is a good bet at the moment, especially in

the UK and USA.

Me too, hence my intent to buy another property in the Uk this summer, anyone got any better ideas, I am all ears.

This is Thaivisa where the most financially savvy people on the planet who only ever make profitable investment congregate .... no doubt someone will be along in a moment to give you a minimum 25%PA growth tip.

IMHO Property maybe OK if you're in it for the long haul, ie 20 years, as it used to be, but with QE and 0.5% interest rates for almost 5 years along with First Buy and the endless other govt props prices have stagnated or dropped in all parts of Britain except certain parts of the South.

What happens when one of these props is no longer viable?

Also its an illiquid asset that is easily taxed, or could easily have its tax exemptions removed.

So, you can't afford to buy property. Some can, and now is a great time to invest in property in the UK. Of course, you have to pick a good location. Prime London up over 50% in 3 years. Sounds like a pretty good return to me.

There are always people like you saying why now is the wrong time, blah, blah, blah. But there are always people like you saying that. In the meantime, others are making money. Property is as good an investment as any at the moment. Certainly better than holding cash. Property tends to rise with inflation, but cash just disappears into nothing.

What tax exemptions are you talking about that could be removed? UK property doesn't have any that I can think off.

Where would you invest? Don't knock others if you can't make any sensible suggestions yourself. Sitting scared and holding cash isn't really an option.

No i cant afford to pay 200K for a 50m2 house in SE England im not that rich or stupid, i am waiting for one of the props i mentioned to be taken out the equation, but as im getting a whopping 3% return on my money this is more then id get if i bought a depreciating asset.

But i congratulate you on being so wealthy at this moment, but are you buying with cash or using the banks money to do so? besides if i had a spare 200K id start a business and employ people .. im not a parasite who'd prefer to be part of the scam to keep young British families as renters forever more ... clearly you are.

The tax breaks i talk of, are allowing B2L landlords to offset rental income against mortgages aswell as goods purchased for the place, and effectively claim that renting a house is some kind of business ... the government is. financially screwed and they will take money from the easiest places and they dont come much easier than rental property.

PS Yes 5 years ago would have been good to buy london property if one was to sell, but are you going to tell me you knew QE and 0.5% aswell as the endless props to the market were going to be put in place? Im of the opinion the ponzi scam cant go on for much longer and i admit i was wrong to think it'd go on past 2008 you see i am the one person on here who hasnt played the rigged market to perfection. But if id bought the correct numbers on the lottery at the weekend id have made a 5 million percent profit isnt hindsight a wonderful thing.

I did the same as you. I started a business buying and renting properties. And yes, I employ people - estate agents, lawyers, plumbers, electricians, cleaners, etc. I'm providing a much needed service. London is a city with a transient population. Those people want to rent, as I did in the first few years I lived in London. Without rental properties, no-one in the UK would be able to move to find work. You have no idea. Maybe you should take your wrath out on all the councils and housing associations who rent out property. According to you, these are stopping families from buying. Not everyone wants to buy. You're probably poor because you're too frightened to invest in anything. Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

[kimbathewhitelion]

I just love these fear-mongering wind-up headlines all a variation on the 'If the world ends tomorrow have you got enough tins of spam in the larder?' They are all without exception the standard junk purloined from websites flogging the buy gold narrative. Thinly disguised advertising. Be warned.

No doubt the Baht is higher, the western currencies diving, governments self destructing....fear tactics are owned by government & corporation. See what you want, not by media or others opinions, but spend the time to research yourself thru what remains as transparent truth.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

From the period shortly before WW1 until about 1950, property values went down in most of the European countries.

Many large landholders lost everything they owned. Long-term it depends which term you pick.

One pandemic that kills 30% of the wests population would really harm your property price projections.

[bifftastic]

Bring it on, my next house in the UK just got cheaper.

Post #7,

Also, put your money into assets that are more likely to rise with

inflation. I think property is a good bet at the moment, especially in

the UK and USA.

Me too, hence my intent to buy another property in the Uk this summer, anyone got any better ideas, I am all ears.

There are places I wouldn't buy with a bargepole.

You wouldn't get much for a bargepole anyway.

[Zolt]

If anything, one of the bigger problems to world economies right now is not enough inflation.

[yoshiwara]

Robert2006, on 02 May 2013 - 01:16, said:

yoshiwara

Head in the sand, I would imagine you’re so blinded by your psychological gold-bug mental block you missed the move up on this investment class. I didn’t read anyone expressing here that buying gold at any price level was a wise move.

Gold might have been a dead loss for 25 years but it’s sure done well over the last 10 years or am I wrong? What’s the matter don’t you like to make money? I guess not if it has anything to do with gold. These are different economic conditions this isn’t 1980 its 2013.

You’ve got some perverse chip on your shoulder about gold, I’m no gold-bug I follow trends I don’t give a hoot what the investment class is, you would have to be hopeless not to recognize commodity prices were going to rise in the face

of all this money creation.

Once you have acknowledged that gold goes up and gold goes down then it is another asset to be traded. That is a reasonable place to be (ie trading ETFs and so on). And that is to be distinguished from the gold bugs going all in because the end of the world is approaching and all other assets are doomed and thinking gold coins are the way to protect against a cruel, cruel, world. Personally I don't like any asset that doesn't generate income (except art) and particularly one whose price doesn't rest on fundamentals and subject to wild swings. Yes its 2013. Me? My poison of choice has been Hong Kong property and some would argue that that has had its wild swings and dodgy fundamentals as well. But I do like the income so I go along for the ride and life is a little interesting there.

I guess we do have some common ground; the majority of my investment base is real estate and the income streams they generate. I will always have the bulk of my assets in real estate, I’m not really concerned with the swings in the properties values because I’m not selling, with those investments I’m primarily concerned with maintaining the cash flows.

I know many people that listened to individuals like you frightening them out of gold investing; I don’t see how you can defend your advice it’s been proven that you were 100% wrong, it’s been one of the best moves any investor could have made over the last 10 years. Gold may not produce an income stream but the capital gain sure has been nice, wouldn’t you say? If someone came in

late and bought high then yes they got hurt, timing is a key factor in any investment.

Are you familiar with the fact that there has never been a fiat currency that has lasted more than 40 years in the history of the world? The US canceled the convertibility of the dollar to gold in 1971 that was 42 years ago. The world’s reserve currency the USD is 100% fiat it derives its value from central bank control and government regulation, it’s a fancy looking piece of paper. This is not end of the world, the sky is falling, dooms day prediction rhetoric from some gold bug, these are facts. I’m not saying the USD will become worthless but the most extensively held currency in the world is indisputably under pressure and that will cause inflation of hard assets which is exactly what it has done.

Historical cycles typically repeat themselves and history shows that investing in hard assets is a long-established method to protect against currency devaluation and the type of economic conditions that exist today. Central banks and governments can

render a currency worthless but they can’t make your real estate in Hong Kong worthless, they can’t make your art worthless and they can’t make gold worthless, hard assets always have a value.

I’m retired and it’s nice not working but at times like this I wish I had not retired so early. If I were buying right now and I’m not my portfolio is established my positions entered into many years ago, I’d be buying silver at 60/1 not gold or the top tier gold and silver mining shares, they are incredibly inexpensive right now. It sure would be nice to have 5,000 ounces of silver tucked away for the next 10 years and see what happens.

Being reliant on timing on a volatile asset with no income stream is not really my idea of fun. But I can see the attractions of trading to some. Again, trading and timing if you can get it right OK, but place of safety no. You really need to make up your mind which camp to be in. The second one is poisonous The one gold trader I listen to is Dennis Gartman of the Gartman letter. He has his head screwed on IMHO. And stay with the property.

[BlackJack]

I read the other day that the earths molten center is actually hotter than the sun and so

i reckon its gonna blow sooner than the CGF 2 or 3

and so spend and enjoy yourself

Time for a sundowner

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Historical cycles typically repeat themselves and history shows that investing in hard assets is a long-established method to protect against currency devaluation and the type of economic conditions that exist today. Central banks and governments can

render a currency worthless but they can’t make your real estate in Hong Kong worthless, they can’t make your art worthless and they can’t make gold worthless, hard assets always have a value.

What if we are just starting the historic cycle where gold and silver stay static for the next 25 years?

Not much point of owning any then, is there!

I think I can spot a 400 year period where gold went nowhere.

(It's peak value appears to have been in 1492, and it's lowest value in 1919)

Edited May 2, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[davejones]

Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

From the period shortly before WW1 until about 1950, property values went down in most of the European countries.

Many large landholders lost everything they owned. Long-term it depends which term you pick.

One pandemic that kills 30% of the wests population would really harm your property price projections.

Yes, that's very true. But there's no point worrying about things like that that I have no control over. I prefer to invest as I see fit now. If a pandemic kills 30% we'll all be in deep trouble, so no point worrying. But it has crossed my mind. Bound to happen soon or later. But that's life. At the end of the day, I'll still have properties. Rental incomes will be much lower, but then so will my costs. The price of everything will collapse.

[davejones]

Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

From the period shortly before WW1 until about 1950, property values went down in most of the European countries.

Many large landholders lost everything they owned. Long-term it depends which term you pick.

One pandemic that kills 30% of the wests population would really harm your property price projections.

How can you lose everything if you own large pieces of land? You still have the land, even if it's worth less than it used to be. e.g. I buy land for $1 million but a few years later it's only worth $500K. So, I still have $500K worth of land.

Another way to look at it is that it's better to be rich for a while and then get wiped out, than to be poor forever because you're afraid to invest just-in-case. If there's a pandemic that wipes out 30%, all investments will go down. So what's the solution - keep all your cash under your bed?

Edited May 2, 2013 by davejones

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

From the period shortly before WW1 until about 1950, property values went down in most of the European countries.

Many large landholders lost everything they owned. Long-term it depends which term you pick.

One pandemic that kills 30% of the wests population would really harm your property price projections.

How can you lose everything if you own large pieces of land? You still have the land, even if it's worth less than it used to be. e.g. I buy land for $1 million but a few years later it's only worth $500K. So, I still have $500K worth of land.

Another way to look at it is that it's better to be rich for a while and then get wiped out, than to be poor forever because you're afraid to invest just-in-case. If there's a pandemic that wipes out 30%, all investments will go down. So what's the solution - keep all your cash under your bed?

Very few people own land outright, land tax and failure to pay loan instalments can result in losing everything.

If you buy your land for $1M using a $900K bank loan, what are you going to do when your land is worth $500K and you owe $900K.

If the worst comes to the worst, local assets beat asset half a world away.

(One of the reasons I'm against owning gold and silver on paper, better to have metals under your bed)

If the 30% pandemic hits, best investment is in lead, lead bullets for the gun under your bed.

Edited May 2, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[Thailand1977]

This is Thaivisa where the most financially savvy people on the planet who only ever make profitable investment congregate .... no doubt someone will be along in a moment to give you a minimum 25%PA growth tip.

Bring it on, my next house in the UK just got cheaper.

Post #7,

Also, put your money into assets that are more likely to rise with

inflation. I think property is a good bet at the moment, especially in

the UK and USA.

Me too, hence my intent to buy another property in the Uk this summer, anyone got any better ideas, I am all ears.

IMHO Property maybe OK if you're in it for the long haul, ie 20 years, as it used to be, but with QE and 0.5% interest rates for almost 5 years along with First Buy and the endless other govt props prices have stagnated or dropped in all parts of Britain except certain parts of the South.

What happens when one of these props is no longer viable?

Also its an illiquid asset that is easily taxed, or could easily have its tax exemptions removed.

So, you can't afford to buy property. Some can, and now is a great time to invest in property in the UK. Of course, you have to pick a good location. Prime London up over 50% in 3 years. Sounds like a pretty good return to me.

There are always people like you saying why now is the wrong time, blah, blah, blah. But there are always people like you saying that. In the meantime, others are making money. Property is as good an investment as any at the moment. Certainly better than holding cash. Property tends to rise with inflation, but cash just disappears into nothing.

What tax exemptions are you talking about that could be removed? UK property doesn't have any that I can think off.

Where would you invest? Don't knock others if you can't make any sensible suggestions yourself. Sitting scared and holding cash isn't really an option.

No i cant afford to pay 200K for a 50m2 house in SE England im not that rich or stupid, i am waiting for one of the props i mentioned to be taken out the equation, but as im getting a whopping 3% return on my money this is more then id get if i bought a depreciating asset.

But i congratulate you on being so wealthy at this moment, but are you buying with cash or using the banks money to do so? besides if i had a spare 200K id start a business and employ people .. im not a parasite who'd prefer to be part of the scam to keep young British families as renters forever more ... clearly you are.

The tax breaks i talk of, are allowing B2L landlords to offset rental income against mortgages aswell as goods purchased for the place, and effectively claim that renting a house is some kind of business ... the government is. financially screwed and they will take money from the easiest places and they dont come much easier than rental property.

PS Yes 5 years ago would have been good to buy london property if one was to sell, but are you going to tell me you knew QE and 0.5% aswell as the endless props to the market were going to be put in place? Im of the opinion the ponzi scam cant go on for much longer and i admit i was wrong to think it'd go on past 2008 you see i am the one person on here who hasnt played the rigged market to perfection. But if id bought the correct numbers on the lottery at the weekend id have made a 5 million percent profit isnt hindsight a wonderful thing.

I did the same as you. I started a business buying and renting properties. And yes, I employ people - estate agents, lawyers, plumbers, electricians, cleaners, etc. I'm providing a much needed service. London is a city with a transient population. Those people want to rent, as I did in the first few years I lived in London. Without rental properties, no-one in the UK would be able to move to find work. You have no idea. Maybe you should take your wrath out on all the councils and housing associations who rent out property. According to you, these are stopping families from buying. Not everyone wants to buy. You're probably poor because you're too frightened to invest in anything. Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

That isnt a business, its part of creating rental serfdom for ordinary Brits, propped up by a corrupt political and banking system and extreme socialism.

The list of employed people you mention would still exist as pipes would have been blocked whether you bought them or not.

You were born at the right time and have rode the property bubble, good luck to you but you need to get it into your thick head you need socialism to survive.

What makes me smile is with all your wealth the best you could do was go to Thailand and buy women, your mother must be so proud.

I am trying to highlight the fact that your ilk see themselves as these high flying entrepreneurs, when your property is 100% reliant on extreme socialist policies that have never been seen before to stop you ending up on your backside.

[Robert2006]

Robert2006, on 02 May 2013 - 01:16, said:

yoshiwara

Head in the sand, I would imagine you’re so blinded by your psychological gold-bug mental block you missed the move up on this investment class. I didn’t read anyone expressing here that buying gold at any price level was a wise move.

Gold might have been a dead loss for 25 years but it’s sure done well over the last 10 years or am I wrong? What’s the matter don’t you like to make money? I guess not if it has anything to do with gold. These are different economic conditions this isn’t 1980 its 2013.

You’ve got some perverse chip on your shoulder about gold, I’m no gold-bug I follow trends I don’t give a hoot what the investment class is, you would have to be hopeless not to recognize commodity prices were going to rise in the face

of all this money creation.

Once you have acknowledged that gold goes up and gold goes down then it is another asset to be traded. That is a reasonable place to be (ie trading ETFs and so on). And that is to be distinguished from the gold bugs going all in because the end of the world is approaching and all other assets are doomed and thinking gold coins are the way to protect against a cruel, cruel, world. Personally I don't like any asset that doesn't generate income (except art) and particularly one whose price doesn't rest on fundamentals and subject to wild swings. Yes its 2013. Me? My poison of choice has been Hong Kong property and some would argue that that has had its wild swings and dodgy fundamentals as well. But I do like the income so I go along for the ride and life is a little interesting there.

I guess we do have some common ground; the majority of my investment base is real estate and the income streams they generate. I will always have the bulk of my assets in real estate, I’m not really concerned with the swings in the properties values because I’m not selling, with those investments I’m primarily concerned with maintaining the cash flows.

I know many people that listened to individuals like you frightening them out of gold investing; I don’t see how you can defend your advice it’s been proven that you were 100% wrong, it’s been one of the best moves any investor could have made over the last 10 years. Gold may not produce an income stream but the capital gain sure has been nice, wouldn’t you say? If someone came in

late and bought high then yes they got hurt, timing is a key factor in any investment.

Are you familiar with the fact that there has never been a fiat currency that has lasted more than 40 years in the history of the world? The US canceled the convertibility of the dollar to gold in 1971 that was 42 years ago. The world’s reserve currency the USD is 100% fiat it derives its value from central bank control and government regulation, it’s a fancy looking piece of paper. This is not end of the world, the sky is falling, dooms day prediction rhetoric from some gold bug, these are facts. I’m not saying the USD will become worthless but the most extensively held currency in the world is indisputably under pressure and that will cause inflation of hard assets which is exactly what it has done.

Historical cycles typically repeat themselves and history shows that investing in hard assets is a long-established method to protect against currency devaluation and the type of economic conditions that exist today. Central banks and governments can

render a currency worthless but they can’t make your real estate in Hong Kong worthless, they can’t make your art worthless and they can’t make gold worthless, hard assets always have a value.

I’m retired and it’s nice not working but at times like this I wish I had not retired so early. If I were buying right now and I’m not my portfolio is established my positions entered into many years ago, I’d be buying silver at 60/1 not gold or the top tier gold and silver mining shares, they are incredibly inexpensive right now. It sure would be nice to have 5,000 ounces of silver tucked away for the next 10 years and see what happens.

Being reliant on timing on a volatile asset with no income stream is not really my idea of fun. But I can see the attractions of trading to some. Again, trading and timing if you can get it right OK, but place of safety no. You really need to make up your mind which camp to be in. The second one is poisonous The one gold trader I listen to is Dennis Gartman of the Gartman letter. He has his head screwed on IMHO. And stay with the property.

I’m not a trader I have not touched an element of my portfolio in over 8 years, I buy into trends and the same trends are still in place. I have cash flow from real estate, with that equity and the cash flow it produces I could lose everything else and my life

would not change a bit. My gold positions were purchased at multiples below the current $1,400 price.

I understand it’s nice to have income streams but capital gains are nice as well. If I take my gold capital gain over the years and divide it by the months I’ve owned, it’s significant. It is currently an unrealized gain as I have not sold yet but those are the risks in those types of investments. I do like the tax advantages I get with real estate but I like my gold capital gain as well.

Silver is much more volatile than gold and unquestionably more of a gamble that’s why I don’t own any but I like the fundamentals and I’ve always wanted some. I never bought any because I wanted a solid base established before I would accept a higher

element of risk.

But today 5,000 ounces of silver costs around $100k USD not a lot of money for me “if” I was still working but I’m not so it a mute issue, I can’t roll the dice.

Nonetheless I have a solid base coving me now, at this point I can accept that type of risk, and if I had the extra $100k I would buy five 1,000 ounce bars. I believe the potential exists for an explosive revaluation of that commodity.

[mccw]

I just love these fear-mongering wind-up headlines all a variation on the 'If the world ends tomorrow have you got enough tins of spam in the larder?' They are all without exception the standard junk purloined from websites flogging the buy gold narrative. Thinly disguised advertising. Be warned.

You’re kidding right? Either that or you’ve seriously damaged your brain with too much drinking. Every major economic power iscreating money at a pace never before seen in world history. There is no question there is inflation and it is going to get worse. You joke of gold buyers, are you daft? Gold was $427 in 2005 but I guess in your world that’s not considered inflation. Maybe if I could find an 8 year chart detailing the price of Chang beer you’d better be able to comprehend the concept of inflation. Better informed minds will be thinking about the obvious outcome of all this money creation and make plans to deal with it the best way they can.

I'm glad you mentioned gold in 2005 because in $US it was exactly the same as it was 25 years earlier in 1980. And if anybody had held gold during those 25 years it would have been a disaster both for inflation and decline in real value (given that gold produces zero returns). Moral of that story? Do not believe any charlatan selling the story that gold is a permanent place of safety. They are either slyly selective with their periods or blindly copying junk from websites they barely understand.

What is your beef with gold? Gold’s like any other commodity/investment the trend now is currency debasement so commodities will benefit, commodity cycles usually last 15-20 years. We live in Asia and gold is traditionally how the east saves their money, I’ll bet you wish you bought some in 2005; can you divide $427 by $1,455? Oh I forgot gold does not produce a return, go back and drink another beer.

Gold is not like any other commodity/investment. Even the gold bugs don't argue that one. No industrial use and no price based on 'usage'. I will say it again. Gold was a dead loss for over 25 years between 1980 and 2005. A total dead loss which lost over 50% of its value. The real value of a dollar at the end of that period. The argument against gold is not that one shouldn't trade it. Buy, sell, no problem. Some guys did very well indeed selling before the current heavy, very heavy drop and maybe they are trading back in right now. Good work. No the argument is fundamentally against the charlatans who are selling the myth to buy gold at all times at all levels. The same charlatans saying buy all the way down from 1930. It is a broken record of fraudulent claims epitomised by your and others studied refusal to respond to the 1980-2005 data. Heads in the sand. There is no better place than Thailand for a gathering of gold bug wise-guys telling the newbies how it really is. Or rather isn't. Bottoms Up!

Your right to say 1980 to 2005 was terrible from the perspective a trader looking for returns.

Your wrong to say any one holding gold or purchasing it through that period is doing terrible; I'm sure most of that was bought and held for reserve purposes and it served its purpose perfectly- springing in to action as the world system was about to break down, balancing the losses in stocks or property. Now the price maybe over inflated due to fear; I don't know; but the reason to hold it as an insurance remains. Buying at today's or almost any price is still justifiable if you don't hold enough or feel you need more insurance based on the view of risks one sees. If the banking system collapse / mass bail in / hyper inflation or other extreme scenario came to pass then it serves its purpose as a tradable, transportable, concealable, commodity/ money. Not every use of funds must be allocated to making more and more money; it's perfectly reasonable to have stores of wealth which just sit there for a rainy day or just in case scenarios.

You can see all the Jews, Iranians, Lebanese etc etc in London who have managed to escape various extreme events in their countries. Most were the ones able to escape and set up in Saftey in another land due to having physical transportable assets like cash on hand, gold, jewlry and art and such. If system goes bonkers you can't rely on being able to cash in shares, stocks, bonds, withdraw cash from banks or sell or transport real estate. The point is you have something of value remaining, even you get half what you paid for it it is still worth it because half is still better than zero!

[54321]

I don't get this - if you are in Thailand and the baht is getting stronger, thats going to make items like oil and other imports relatively cheaper, so a big dampener on Thai inflation.

If your sky is falling in hypothesis is true, then more money will flow into Thailand (and Australia, NZ and one or two other safe havens) making the baht even stronger, and thus imports even cheaper.

So I guess the answer to your question is - stay in Thailand.

No you dont get it.

[yoshiwara]

Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

From the period shortly before WW1 until about 1950, property values went down in most of the European countries.

Many large landholders lost everything they owned. Long-term it depends which term you pick.

One pandemic that kills 30% of the wests population would really harm your property price projections.

Yes, that's very true. But there's no point worrying about things like that that I have no control over. I prefer to invest as I see fit now. If a pandemic kills 30% we'll all be in deep trouble, so no point worrying. But it has crossed my mind. Bound to happen soon or later. But that's life. At the end of the day, I'll still have properties. Rental incomes will be much lower, but then so will my costs. The price of everything will collapse.

In 2002 there was the SARS scare in Hong Kong. Colleagues were cancelling trips to Hong Kong due to health infection worries. Prices of property at that moment in time were extremely cheap and if I had been in a position to buy or even think about it then I would have made a lot of money indeed (at least more than a few years later). There was an opportunity and opportunities tend not to hang around. There is a limited time window. It wasn't the end of the world. They who only live on Planet Eventually, life passes them by and fearful of a world that has spooked them to the point of organising their existence around a fantasy of having to run away with a bag of coins to get them to Patagonia or wherever. Edited May 2, 2013 by yoshiwara

[rgs2001uk]

Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

From the period shortly before WW1 until about 1950, property values went down in most of the European countries.

Many large landholders lost everything they owned. Long-term it depends which term you pick.

One pandemic that kills 30% of the wests population would really harm your property price projections.

How can you lose everything if you own large pieces of land? You still have the land, even if it's worth less than it used to be. e.g. I buy land for $1 million but a few years later it's only worth $500K. So, I still have $500K worth of land.

Another way to look at it is that it's better to be rich for a while and then get wiped out, than to be poor forever because you're afraid to invest just-in-case. If there's a pandemic that wipes out 30%, all investments will go down. So what's the solution - keep all your cash under your bed?

Very few people own land outright, land tax and failure to pay loan instalments can result in losing everything.

If you buy your land for $1M using a $900K bank loan, what are you going to do when your land is worth $500K and you owe $900K.

If the worst comes to the worst, local assets beat asset half a world away.

(One of the reasons I'm against owning gold and silver on paper, better to have metals under your bed)

If the 30% pandemic hits, best investment is in lead, lead bullets for the gun under your bed.

If you buy your land for $1M using a $900K bank loan, what are you going to do when your land is worth $500K and you owe $900K.

Its only a paper loss, you only lose if you sell, keep making the payments and ride out the storm.

Saw it in the Uk in the '90s, people who should never have been given mortgages jumping on the bandwagon for fear of being left behind.

I bought a house for 30k it went to 60k I sold for 45k, did I lose 25% or did I make 50%?

[rgs2001uk]

Bring it on, my next house in the UK just got cheaper.

Post #7,

Also, put your money into assets that are more likely to rise with

inflation. I think property is a good bet at the moment, especially in

the UK and USA.

Me too, hence my intent to buy another property in the Uk this summer, anyone got any better ideas, I am all ears.

This is Thaivisa where the most financially savvy people on the planet who only ever make profitable investment congregate .... no doubt someone will be along in a moment to give you a minimum 25%PA growth tip.

IMHO Property maybe OK if you're in it for the long haul, ie 20 years, as it used to be, but with QE and 0.5% interest rates for almost 5 years along with First Buy and the endless other govt props prices have stagnated or dropped in all parts of Britain except certain parts of the South.

What happens when one of these props is no longer viable?

Also its an illiquid asset that is easily taxed, or could easily have its tax exemptions removed.

Many properties in Florida are worth less than they were 20 years ago.

I'm sure other parts of the west are in a similar situation.

I'm sure other parts of the west are in a similar situation.

You are probably correct, however its all about location.

Something as simple as a post code (zip code for our American friends) can make all the difference, a house on the same street 500 yards down the road can be worth less than an identical house up the road.

Google the NHS lottery code, or schooling to see what applies.

[yoshiwara]

Your right to say 1980 to 2005 was terrible from the perspective a trader looking for returns.

Your wrong to say any one holding gold or purchasing it through that period is doing terrible; I'm sure most of that was bought and held for reserve purposes and it served its purpose perfectly- springing in to action as the world system was about to break down, balancing the losses in stocks or property. Now the price maybe over inflated due to fear; I don't know; but the reason to hold it as an insurance remains. Buying at today's or almost any price is still justifiable if you don't hold enough or feel you need more insurance based on the view of risks one sees. If the banking system collapse / mass bail in / hyper inflation or other extreme scenario came to pass then it serves its purpose as a tradable, transportable, concealable, commodity/ money. Not every use of funds must be allocated to making more and more money; it's perfectly reasonable to have stores of wealth which just sit there for a rainy day or just in case scenarios.

You can see all the Jews, Iranians, Lebanese etc etc in London who have managed to escape various extreme events in their countries. Most were the ones able to escape and set up in Saftey in another land due to having physical transportable assets like cash on hand, gold, jewlry and art and such. If system goes bonkers you can't rely on being able to cash in shares, stocks, bonds, withdraw cash from banks or sell or transport real estate. The point is you have something of value remaining, even you get half what you paid for it it is still worth it because half is still better than zero!

Well a 50 year old buying in 1980 would have had a thoroughly disasterous retirement reliant on gold.

25 years is enough time to be dead before your investment recovers.

My point is that it is a risky asset and doubly so without income returns.

Retirement is all about income, not re-runs of wartime movies in your head.

[utalkin2me]

Cigarettes are cheap, beers not expensive, who cares about the rest?

You forgot women

Women follow with the beers.... if you buy enough of them anyway.... you know, you got one of the "cool", "in" tables.

[yoshiwara]

If you buy your land for $1M using a $900K bank loan, what are you going to do when your land is worth $500K and you owe $900K.

Its only a paper loss, you only lose if you sell, keep making the payments and ride out the storm.

Saw it in the Uk in the '90s, people who should never have been given mortgages jumping on the bandwagon for fear of being left behind.

I bought a house for 30k it went to 60k I sold for 45k, did I lose 25% or did I make 50%?

Re the land, since you are underwater you are at risk if you cannot make the payments as many Americans discovered when they lost their jobs.

Re the house unless you are cashing out or downsizing, or raising a loan against valuation, then the gain is nominal.

[rgs2001uk]

^^^^, as I look back over the years, two things stick out, my student days, and the UK property market of the late '80s early '90s, cash is king.

I remember people throwing the house keys through the letter boxes and walking away, shafted when interest rates almost doubled overnight, driven by an arrogant UK chancellor who tried to keep parity with the DM or ERM.

I have mentioned on here before, the first house I bought cost 3 times the average wage for the area, the same house now has quadrupled in value and will now cost 7 times the average wage for the area.

I dont look at snapshots in time, I tend to take a long term view, say 15 or 20 years down the road and average out house prices over that period.

How many are going to be left behind?

[mccw]

Property doesn't generally depreciate over the long-term. Add in the rental income, and it hardly ever depreciates. I'm very happy to be a stupid person who bought some small apartments in London years ago. Better to be stupid and have money, then to be clever and poor. I almost feel sorry for you.

From the period shortly before WW1 until about 1950, property values went down in most of the European countries.

Many large landholders lost everything they owned. Long-term it depends which term you pick.

One pandemic that kills 30% of the wests population would really harm your property price projections.

Yes, that's very true. But there's no point worrying about things like that that I have no control over. I prefer to invest as I see fit now. If a pandemic kills 30% we'll all be in deep trouble, so no point worrying. But it has crossed my mind. Bound to happen soon or later. But that's life. At the end of the day, I'll still have properties. Rental incomes will be much lower, but then so will my costs. The price of everything will collapse.

In 2002 there was the SARS scare in Hong Kong. Colleagues were cancelling trips to Hong Kong due to health infection worries. Prices of property at that moment in time were extremely cheap and if I had been in a position to buy or even think about it then I would have made a lot of money indeed (at least more than a few years later). There was an opportunity and opportunities tend not to hang around. There is a limited time window. It wasn't the end of the world. They who only live on Planet Eventually, life passes them by and fearful of a world that has spooked them to the point of organising their existence around a fantasy of having to run away with a bag of coins to get them to Patagonia or wherever.

You don't put 100% of your money in life insurance do you? Same with gold and the other assets I'm talking about above. Its just a small percentage as a reserve, an insurance.

I have the largest % for income generation and another % for capital increase speculation, another % cash in bank for turn over and another % cash for easily jump on opportunities like the ones you mention. You must be a bit of a simpleton to only be able to conceptualise an all or nothing approach. This problem of yours keeps resurfacing again and again despite most forum gold holders telling you on numerous occasions they only hold some % of total net worth in gold, some for speculation, some for insurance but I don't think I ever heard anyone advocate 100% all in on PMs

[yoshiwara]

mccw, on 02 May 2013 - 23:28, said:

You don't put 100% of your money in life insurance do you? Same with gold and the other assets I'm talking about above. Its just a small percentage as a reserve, an insurance.

I have the largest % for income generation and another % for capital increase speculation, another % cash in bank for turn over and another % cash for easily jump on opportunities like the ones you mention. You must be a bit of a simpleton to only be able to conceptualise an all or nothing approach. This problem of yours keeps resurfacing again and again despite most forum gold holders telling you on numerous occasions they only hold some % of total net worth in gold, some for speculation, some for insurance but I don't think I ever heard anyone advocate 100% all in on PMs

Not so fast Batman. The problem lies within the gold bug position which is 'all-in' and rubbishes all other assets as worthless as we 'inevitably' approach financial Doomsday and variations therof on this theme. Gold is 'special' and provides the key to the promised land of freedom, wealth and triumph over the 'bankster conspiracy'. You know the drill. There are no half-way houses. None of the forum gold bug advocates come on here and say that we should be holding 10% in gold, 40% in property, 30% equity and so on. No, it is Gold Vs The Rest. However, when gold stumbles, the former true believers emerge from the ruins of the gold bunker declaring that they weren't really 'all-in', 'only held it for insurance' and best of all 'sold it two weeks/two months/two years ago'. Then, when the dust has cleared and the all-clear has sounded (in their heads and in the price) they are back to their old tricks again and the show goes on. Now why do we have to put up with this charade? It is because those who proletise the gold bug position and talk the talk, don't necessarily walk the walk and baulk at the reality of doing what they say should be done when there is action to be taken. The prattle is as much to gee themselves up as it is to lambast the rest of us. One thing is for sure and that is these guys continue to argue the 'true believer' position when they can though it is amusing for the rest of us when the cult members are discovered walking off in the opposite direction from the set script. Very human. Edited May 3, 2013 by yoshiwara

[Thailand1977]

^^^^, as I look back over the years, two things stick out, my student days, and the UK property market of the late '80s early '90s, cash is king.

I remember people throwing the house keys through the letter boxes and walking away, shafted when interest rates almost doubled overnight, driven by an arrogant UK chancellor who tried to keep parity with the DM or ERM.

I have mentioned on here before, the first house I bought cost 3 times the average wage for the area, the same house now has quadrupled in value and will now cost 7 times the average wage for the area.

I dont look at snapshots in time, I tend to take a long term view, say 15 or 20 years down the road and average out house prices over that period.

How many are going to be left behind?

Its a generation of under 40s who now have to pay 6-7 times the average wage, so only many millions have been left behind.

Their vote will be fought for and the current predicament of propping up bubble prices will end, or the markets will eventually do something about it. Socialism only works for so long.

Or is British labour going to compete with the rest of the world who have let the bubbles burst with the highest property prices in the developed world, thus making their pay packets needing to be higher .... I don't think so!

Edited May 3, 2013 by Thailand1977

[chiang mai]

Given the choice I wonder which that age group would favour most, inheriting the accumulated welath of their parents or popping the housing buble and inheriting nothing, perhaps the complainers are simply people with poor parents, dunno.