Warning On Rice Policy A Wake-Up Call For Thai Govt

[apetley]

It could be argued that no money has been lost since the government still own some (most) of the rice. If you buy 1000 mangos at 100 baht each then sell 999 at 1 Baht each you have not made a loss until you sell the final mango.

 

Unless all your mangoes go rotten before you sell them ..... or the price drops to less than you paid.

Pro government people say none of the rice is rotten.  Anti government people think all of the rice is rotten.  So tell us; what percent of the rice in storage is rotten and not able to be sold?

Nobody knows but a recent news article, Bloomberg?, reported that 20% of a shipment to Ivory Coast was rotten.

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[iancnx]

i sure hope they dont get that 2.2trillion loan it would be a disaster,,you know it dont you,,,,

And it will be a disaster for Thailand if they don't improve infrastructure NOW.

[chiangmaikelly]

If they don't how much rice is in storage and what it is worth how do they know what the loss is?

Your analogy was flawed because they aren't growing rice and storing it, they are buying rice at more than it is worth, storing it with associated costs and depreciation of value as it deteriorates.

In that business model there is no upside, it's ALL loss. You continue to push that it is important to quantify that loss, difficult to do because of the many factors involved. Figures of hundreds of billions of baht are thrown about, everybody expects the losses will be huge, but that's alright because we don't know EXACTLY how huge? Get a grip.

This government has no legal right to WASTE taxpayers' funds. That is called accountability, and it's about time they were held accountable.

I agree with you but how much? How much rice is in storage and what is it worth? You don't know how much the government has spent on the rice scheme. If you do tell us. It is not how much has been spent. It is how much has been spent less the value of the rice in storage and sold under the scheme.

If I told you THB345,987,375,832.55 would you be happy? I doubt that figure is correct, I doubt the current government has any real idea - in fact they are telling so many lies, issuing so many rubbery figures, obfuscating and self-deceiving that the real figure probably never will be known. IT IS IRRELEVANT.

If it is THB100 billion is that acceptable? 200 billion? 300 billion? Just how much tax money is a government allowed to waste, and continue to waste?

There is a difference between theft and grand theft for a reason. Is inflation 3% or 10%. If it is 3% the government has doen a good job; if it is 10% we get a new government.

[OzMick]

agree with you but how much? How much rice is in storage and what is it worth? You don't know how much the government has spent on the rice scheme. If you do tell us. It is not how much has been spent. It is how much has been spent less the value of the rice in storage and sold under the scheme.

If they don't how much rice is in storage and what it is worth how do they know what the loss is?

Your analogy was flawed because they aren't growing rice and storing it, they are buying rice at more than it is worth, storing it with associated costs and depreciation of value as it deteriorates.

In that business model there is no upside, it's ALL loss. You continue to push that it is important to quantify that loss, difficult to do because of the many factors involved. Figures of hundreds of billions of baht are thrown about, everybody expects the losses will be huge, but that's alright because we don't know EXACTLY how huge? Get a grip.

This government has no legal right to WASTE taxpayers' funds. That is called accountability, and it's about time they were held accountable.

If I told you THB345,987,375,832.55 would you be happy? I doubt that figure is correct, I doubt the current government has any real idea - in fact they are telling so many lies, issuing so many rubbery figures, obfuscating and self-deceiving that the real figure probably never will be known. IT IS IRRELEVANT.

If it is THB100 billion is that acceptable? 200 billion? 300 billion? Just how much tax money is a government allowed to waste, and continue to waste?

There is a difference between theft and grand theft for a reason. Is inflation 3% or 10%. If it is 3% the government has doen a good job; if it is 10% we get a new government.

THB 100 billion equates to massive theft/mismanagement/incompetence. Hopefully we get a new government.

If they insist on persisting with this theft/mismanagement/incompetence, hopefully we get a new government immediately - by whatever means necessary.

[khunken]

If they don't how much rice is in storage and what it is worth how do they know what the loss is?

Why don't you read some of the other posts on this thread & you would have your answer.

Why don't you quote it? I read the other posts. It's not there.

Go and Google it then.

Methinks you're just trying to divert attention from PTP incompetence & corruption.

[chiangmaikelly]

THB 100 billion equates to massive theft/mismanagement/incompetence. Hopefully we get a new government.

If they insist on persisting with this theft/mismanagement/incompetence, hopefully we get a new government immediately - by whatever means necessary.

See that is where I can't agree with you. I am old fashioned. If the rice scheme ends up costing billions and worse is proved that the money did not get to farmers then I think the democratic process will/should provide a new government. I could never agree with your comment of "whatever means necessary." I believe in elections.

Edited June 6, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[chiangmaikelly]

If they don't how much rice is in storage and what it is worth how do they know what the loss is?

Why don't you read some of the other posts on this thread & you would have your answer.

Why don't you quote it? I read the other posts. It's not there.

Go and Google it then.

Methinks you're just trying to divert attention from PTP incompetence & corruption.

If you are talking to me, it's not there. If it is quote it.

[thaicbr]

 

 

 

If they don't how much rice is in storage and what it is worth how do they know what the loss is? 

 

 

Why don't you read some of the other posts on this thread & you would have your answer.

Why don't you quote it? I read the other posts.  It's not there. 

Go and Google it then.

 

Methinks you're just trying to divert attention from PTP incompetence & corruption.

If you are talking to me, it's not there.  If it is quote it. 

You must have an extremely bad memory. As you seem to never remember what you have read. I take it from your previous posts that you read the Bangkok post and by being on this forum you read the Nation.. I would also surmise that you are suitably internet savvy to use Google. If all the above is correct your in the same boat as most of us.

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[OzMick]

THB 100 billion equates to massive theft/mismanagement/incompetence. Hopefully we get a new government.

If they insist on persisting with this theft/mismanagement/incompetence, hopefully we get a new government immediately - by whatever means necessary.

See that is where I can't agree with you. I am old fashioned. If the rice scheme ends up costing billions and worse is proved that the money did not get to farmers then I think the democratic process will/should provide a new government. I could never agree with your comment of "whatever means necessary." I believe in elections.

I believe there are fairies at the bottom of my garden. if they start stealing my strawberries I would have no problem using insecticide on them.

[chiangmaikelly]

If they don't how much rice is in storage and what it is worth how do they know what the loss is?

Why don't you read some of the other posts on this thread & you would have your answer.

Why don't you quote it? I read the other posts. It's not there.

Go and Google it then.

Methinks you're just trying to divert attention from PTP incompetence & corruption.

If you are talking to me, it's not there. If it is quote it.

You must have an extremely bad memory. As you seem to never remember what you have read. I take it from your previous posts that you read the Bangkok post and by being on this forum you read the Nation.. I would also surmise that you are suitably internet savvy to use Google. If all the above is correct your in the same boat as most of us.

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If it is so easy to find why don't one of you guys post it instead of flaming me.

[khunken]

^^ No: 67

No, I'm talking to the wall - I just happened to use your repetitive post.

Go and look it up yourself.

[chiangmaikelly]

^^ No: 67

No, I'm talking to the wall - I just happened to use your repetitive post.

Go and look it up yourself.

I already said it is not there. No one has ever posted it. I looked it up. Not there.

[khunken]

^^ No: 67

No, I'm talking to the wall - I just happened to use your repetitive post.

Go and look it up yourself.

I already said it is not there. No one has ever posted it. I looked it up. Not there.

Well if it can't be found on Google & the government doesn't know - there's your answer: no one knows.

Now have you anything to contribute to the thread?

[EyesWideOpen]

Maybe this really is the cloud with the silver lining. As every savvy expat predicted early on, this rice scam will certainly end in a trail of tears, with mind boggling losses to the government. With the Moodys opinion on Thai debt being pretty low, I suspect Thailand will have a hard time raising the 2.2 trillion baht to refill the feeding trough for more looting. So hopefully the government will not be able to financially enslave the Thai people for generations to pay off that 2.2 trillion baht.R

Regarding the value of the rotting rice, in essence the clock is ticking. I am no rice expert, but am pretty sure that within a span of so many years, the value will be........wait for it........ 0 So as the Thai government tries to flog off its rotten rice, the reputation of Thailand, formerly the rice export champion of the world, will now change to the rotten rice hub of the world, making future rice sales far more difficult as no one will trust the quality of the rice.

And the final silver lining ?? Hopefully the fall of the PTP government.Although from what I read, Thais are most worried about the price of eggs, rather than the convoluted rice scam and the pending 2.2 trillion baht refill of the feeding trough.....

Edited June 6, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[moe666]

In the past few months I have travelled from Chiang Mai to Hua Hin and from Chiang Mai to Plok, khoen Kaen, Surin, Pattaya, Bangkok and back to Chiang Mai. Along the way I have passed many rice storage facilities and the rice is piled in buildings and in the open air as high as 10 meters high. The stench is beyond description I would not want to live near one of these facilities because of the smell. For the government not to know the condition and quality of what they have spent billions on is criminal.

Between Khoen Kaen and Surin there was rice stored in a football field sized area in heaps about 2 to 5 meters in height there were puddles of water scattered in the area as well as a white power piled around as well, this looked like a dumping area as opposed to a storage areas that are usually on concrete slabs. Good luck to these folks getting a handle on this situation as it appears to be a total mess

Wow! Did you get any photo's?

No just riding by on my way to some where else, but it is there stacked up in the weather.

[moe666]

In the past few months I have travelled from Chiang Mai to Hua Hin and from Chiang Mai to Plok, khoen Kaen, Surin, Pattaya, Bangkok and back to Chiang Mai. Along the way I have passed many rice storage facilities and the rice is piled in buildings and in the open air as high as 10 meters high. The stench is beyond description I would not want to live near one of these facilities because of the smell. For the government not to know the condition and quality of what they have spent billions on is criminal.

Between Khoen Kaen and Surin there was rice stored in a football field sized area in heaps about 2 to 5 meters in height there were puddles of water scattered in the area as well as a white power piled around as well, this looked like a dumping area as opposed to a storage areas that are usually on concrete slabs. Good luck to these folks getting a handle on this situation as it appears to be a total mess

Be careful what you see, Nathawut might have you arrested for spying. He earlier threatened a Dem MP to have him arrested for visiting a storage facility.

Its top secret...

Not much snooping needed the ones I have ridden by along the road some on main roads some on small rual roads

[ratcatcher]

PM's Office Minister Nivatthamrong Boonsongpaisal

Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom,

Two Boonsongs = One Boondoggle

"A boondoggle is a project that is considered a useless waste of both time and money, yet is often continued due to extraneous policy motivations."

Yes, that about sums it up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boondoggle_(project)

[smedly]

and a boonsong doggle dandy - could be a song in there somewhere lol

[Thai at Heart]

The amazing thing is that they really have no idea where it stands. None. Yet it's big enough to break them as it's all borrowed from a government owned bank which can't afford the loss.

They can't answer a simple straightforward question about where it all stands because no one knows.

It's possible that they "can't" answer because a lot has been stolen both money and rice.

I have an oil well. I put all the oil that I have pumped from the well into storage. Is the oil in storage worth the price of oil when I put it into storage or the price today or the price in 6 months? I have a rice farm. I put all the rice grown into storage. Is the rice worth the price of rice when I put it into storage or the price today or the price in 6 months?

In good storage the rice won't rot for a number of years even if the storage is not so good it will be OK for a couple of years.

What are you doing comparing oil to rice? Oil doesn't rot or get infested by rats.

Your analogy might be a little bit relevant if all the rice was on good storage. It isn't.

Gee, Whybother read my post! I wrote, "In good storage the rice won't rot for a number of years even if the storage is not so good it will be OK for a couple of years."

That would be long term climatically controlled storage. Thailand isn't traditionally in that business. They are in the rice selling business.

They have nowhere near enough high quality storage.

[kimamey]

In the past few months I have travelled from Chiang Mai to Hua Hin and from Chiang Mai to Plok, khoen Kaen, Surin, Pattaya, Bangkok and back to Chiang Mai. Along the way I have passed many rice storage facilities and the rice is piled in buildings and in the open air as high as 10 meters high. The stench is beyond description I would not want to live near one of these facilities because of the smell. For the government not to know the condition and quality of what they have spent billions on is criminal.

Between Khoen Kaen and Surin there was rice stored in a football field sized area in heaps about 2 to 5 meters in height there were puddles of water scattered in the area as well as a white power piled around as well, this looked like a dumping area as opposed to a storage areas that are usually on concrete slabs. Good luck to these folks getting a handle on this situation as it appears to be a total mess

Be careful what you see, Nathawut might have you arrested for spying. He earlier threatened a Dem MP to have him arrested for visiting a storage facility.

Its top secret...

Is that true? ...that he threatened a Dem MP for visiting a storage facility. Where are all the worlds decent investigative journalists when you need them?

It is also funny that these buffoons are stating that Moody's are completely wrong. This is team Shiniwatra that had export figures at 10.8% when it should have been 2.8% and budgets 100% over the amount needed because of a typing error. I guess the team of global economic specialists who have worked the worlds financial markets for decades are all wrong. I bet they're having some laughs over coffee today.

To be fair the credit rating agencies didn't get it so right with the mortgage related securities before the financial crisis. Mind you I think I'd still trust them more than this government.

[GentlemanJim]

The amazing thing is that they really have no idea where it stands. None. Yet it's big enough to break them as it's all borrowed from a government owned bank which can't afford the loss.

They can't answer a simple straightforward question about where it all stands because no one knows.

It's possible that they "can't" answer because a lot has been stolen both money and rice.

I have an oil well. I put all the oil that I have pumped from the well into storage. Is the oil in storage worth the price of oil when I put it into storage or the price today or the price in 6 months? I have a rice farm. I put all the rice grown into storage. Is the rice worth the price of rice when I put it into storage or the price today or the price in 6 months?

In good storage the rice won't rot for a number of years even if the storage is not so good it will be OK for a couple of years.

The price of a commodity, rice in this case, is worth what the buyer will pay upon taking control of same. There does not seem to be a rice shortage in Asia nor on the world market, so its basically a buyer market. The buyer determines the quanity, quality and when/how he takes delivery. Realistlly Thai rice in storage is woth nothing and unlike oil, is subject to spoilage. Add the high cost of storage (800 baht/month/ton reported by one official), and its better to compare the rice program to any commodity that generates zero income, is subject to spoilage, theft, etc while real profit potential is dropping at an alarming rate due to unrecoverable cost, when/if the commodity is purchased in the future.

Changmaikelly the rice is rotting and is being contaminated by rats urine and feaces. The 15000 baht ton of rice that is stored for one year is now a 24600 baht ton of rice and if it was stored for 2 years it has cost 34200 baht. Yes that is 34600 Baht at pure cost!!! 34600 baht when world rice is at 7000 baht, selling at 34600 baht would only break even. If they can sell it in 2 years it would at best go for a fifth of its cost to the tax payers of this country. As siapout suggests the rice will likely be sold for much less than that, maybe for a sixth or seventh the cost to the tax payer.

Now if any trader I know came up with a plan to buy commodities with investors money and sell them 2 years down the line for 15% of their value, he would not last two minutes. What has occurred is totally shocking, made even more so by the fact that nobody knows how much or at what true cost. Get that! A budget of 500 Billion and nobody is counting! Is it starting to sound preposterous enough yet? There is a guy in jail for 50 years in the US for coming up with a scam that was not even as good and as blatant as this.

When team Shinawatra have stolen enough they will use the money to buy the next election, giving those in the North AND South 1000 baht each, all from the coffers of the Thai treasury. Then will come the Thailand version of Cambodia with it's new President. It's brilliant really, but criminally brilliant. You have really thought about what it is you support haven't you?

This is a scandal of such gravity that I find it amazing that red apologists can still try and defend it. Still with any luck, Moody's, Standard and Poor and Fitch are about to piss all over the PTP bonfire.

[tingtongfarang]

I may be wrong but i imagine thailands moldy rice sittuation would make many people in the rice import sector very suspicious even when buying so called new crops, Is there any easy way to know the age of rice recieved apart from it being rotten?

Edited June 6, 2013 by tingtongfarang

[rubl]

Rice still in stock = no loss (yet). That's interesting logic.

BTW:
June 6: The Vietnamese government has asked the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) to appoint businesses to buy one million tons of rice from the farmers in the second phase of the rice reserve program in 2013 to prevent a crash in prices once the harvest of the summer-autumn rice crop in the Mekong Delta peaks this month. The VFA chairman said that the procurement of rice will take place during June 15 to July 31, 2013.
http://cambodiariceexporters.org/en/news/rice-news/593/.html

[kimamey]

If they don't how much rice is in storage and what it is worth how do they know what the loss is?

Your analogy was flawed because they aren't growing rice and storing it, they are buying rice at more than it is worth, storing it with associated costs and depreciation of value as it deteriorates.

In that business model there is no upside, it's ALL loss. You continue to push that it is important to quantify that loss, difficult to do because of the many factors involved. Figures of hundreds of billions of baht are thrown about, everybody expects the losses will be huge, but that's alright because we don't know EXACTLY how huge? Get a grip.

This government has no legal right to WASTE taxpayers' funds. That is called accountability, and it's about time they were held accountable.

I agree with you but how much? How much rice is in storage and what is it worth? You don't know how much the government has spent on the rice scheme. If you do tell us. It is not how much has been spent. It is how much has been spent less the value of the rice in storage and sold under the scheme.

I would have thought it was obvious that this would incur a loss. If it didn't then it wouldn't be needed.

The idea was to pay farmers more than they would get normally so increasing their income. This in itself is not such a bad idea as it should increase their disposable income. Unfortunately it seems as if a lot of this money hasn't gone to poor farmers at all. A lot would appear to have gone to the millers. If this is the case then the scheme isn't working. The storage has to be paid for as well and if that is privately owned then the warehouse owners may be doing well also.

This was never going to be anything other than a loss but it's the amount of loss and the apparent lack of information that is worrying. If it were going really well you can bet the government would be giving all the figures they could.

[chiangmaikelly]

Rice still in stock = no loss (yet). That's interesting logic.

When you make a car it has a new car shelf life of a couple of years. Rice is grown and a car is assembled. Both are carried in inventory and not considered a loss to the dealer. It is not logic it is accounting. You can debate the value of the product but not the fact that it is carried in inventory until sold.

[thaicbr]

Rice still in stock = no loss (yet). That's interesting logic.

 

When you make a car it has a new car shelf life of a couple of years.  Rice is grown and a car is assembled.  Both are carried in inventory and not considered a loss to the dealer.  It is not logic it is accounting.  You can debate the value of the product but not the fact that it is carried in inventory until sold. 

True. No one really disputes that. But change the analogy to you grow rice and buy it for 30% more than market value. You assembly a car for 30% more than market. Then keep in stock for 2-5 years. The car devalues by say 50% (or possibly goes up depending on car) and the rice devalues by 50% but unlike the car it also rots because it's organic and that's it's nature so lose another 30%.

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[GentlemanJim]

Rice still in stock = no loss (yet). That's interesting logic.

When you make a car it has a new car shelf life of a couple of years. Rice is grown and a car is assembled. Both are carried in inventory and not considered a loss to the dealer. It is not logic it is accounting. You can debate the value of the product but not the fact that it is carried in inventory until sold.

All well and good when your rice has been processed, milled and put in vacuum packed containers. Lying in open warehouses, bulldozed into piles of hundreds of tons and free to the ravages of insects, vermin, birds. Much of the rice is not processed which will have a 6 month maximum shelf life before rotting. But hey, you can still sit in the two year old car and drive it away. There is a slight difference between a car and a foodstuff that needs to be kept in clean conditions, and it WILL rot making it unfit for human consumption. It is 'accounting' such as you suggest that is fooling farmers and certain members of the government into thinking this is all a great program.

[GentlemanJim]

Rice still in stock = no loss (yet). That's interesting logic.

When you make a car it has a new car shelf life of a couple of years. Rice is grown and a car is assembled. Both are carried in inventory and not considered a loss to the dealer. It is not logic it is accounting. You can debate the value of the product but not the fact that it is carried in inventory until sold.

True. No one really disputes that. But change the analogy to you grow rice and buy it for 30% more than market value. You assembly a car for 30% more than market. Then keep in stock for 2-5 years. The car devalues by say 50% (or possibly goes up depending on car) and the rice devalues by 50% but unlike the car it also rots because it's organic and that's it's nature so lose another 30%.

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And please do not forget the fact that the rice is costing 800 baht per ton per month to store. That is an extra 9600 baht per ton for every year of storage. How are those costs going to be recouped?

[metisdead]

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed. As well as being in violation of fair use policy, it was copy and pasted from another forum, which would not be allowed anyway.

[Robby nz]

There are so many other costs involved G J each one in its self may me minor but when they are all added up they will be a fair bit per ton.

Then multiply that by 18 million.

For instance:

Power

Fuel

cartage

security

labor to move the stuff

insecticides, pesticides, fungicides , assuming they are used.