What's up with the sugar craze?

[farmerkevin]

Where I live, in the heart of Isaan, everybody seems to be getting into sugar cane lately. Why? The sugar price is on a downward path. Is ethanol in play? Does the Thai government subsidize sugar?

We're being offered 2500 baht per rai (per year) to rent out our land for sugar. Minimum 2 years and they would pay everything up-front. And apparently without putting things on paper. If we can offer them other land, we would get 100 baht per rai commission. What's up?

[silva]

Actually sugar price is up this year

[farmerkevin]

Actually sugar price is up this year

About 12% down on my chart.

[ttwitt]

history

http://www.futuresbuzz.com/sugarlt.html

current futures price

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/agriculture/

current news

http://search1.bloomberg.com/search/?content_type=all&page=1&q=sugar

"Four of 10 people surveyed expect raw sugar to fall next week and three were bullish. The commodity slid 16 percent to 16.42 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York this year.

By Nicholas Larkin - Jul 5, 2013 2:38 PM GMT+0800"

"“The news in Pakistan is bringing the market down,” Michael Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida, said in a telephone interview. “We have these surpluses, and demand is decreasing, not increasing. It is going to be really tough for the sugar market to work through its long-term supply.”By Marley DelDuchetto - Jul 2, 2013 11:17 PM GMT+0800"

looks to me like rent and run with your cash

but there is also this hormone thing see http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/650609-sugarcane/

early adopters may make a profit b4 the price crashes big time. i however know nothing at all about sugar or farming.

Edited July 5, 2013 by ttwitt

[silva]

Actually sugar price is up this year

About 12% down on my chart.

Well I am going by my sugar cane & what I got however what would I know

[farmerkevin]

Actually sugar price is up this year

About 12% down on my chart.

Well I am going by my sugar cane & what I got however what would I know

If you grow sugar cane yourself, maybe you could shed some light on the 2,500 baht per rai being offered (see OP). Does that number make sense to you?

[silva]

Actually sugar price is up this year

About 12% down on my chart.

Well I am going by my sugar cane & what I got however what would I know

If you grow sugar cane yourself, maybe you could shed some light on the 2,500 baht per rai being offered (see OP). Does that number make sense to you?

last harvest gross per rai was sixteen.thousand two hundred bt per rai

[silva]

Actually sugar price is up this year

About 12% down on my chart.

Well I am going by my sugar cane & what I got however what would I know

If you grow sugar cane yourself, maybe you could shed some light on the 2,500 baht per rai being offered (see OP). Does that number make sense to you?

There is a shortfall for Thai needs of 200mil tons of sugar the government are encouraging farmers to grow cane. The price you have been offered makes sence as cost per rai is on average three thousand six hundred per rai .That is a total cost start to finish per year.However if I was to rent I would insist on a three year agreement as cane gives three years of crops then replaced with new cane.

[farmerkevin]

Thanks, silva. Very helpful comments. I've been told 2 or 3 years depends on soil quality; so it would be a 2y with an option on a 3rd year.

[Canada]

more like 3 with an option of 4

[silva]

Thanks, silva. Very helpful comments. I've been told 2 or 3 years depends on soil quality; so it would be a 2y with an option on a 3rd year.

I think as canada has said they will want at least three years. I have been buying land for the last three years , Nobody will sell untill they have had that third crop harvested . Then it needs the old out new planted which means extra expence of plants tractor for that year.

Hope this helps , I have tried this year to rent land but couldn't get one rai wanted as much as two hundred rai .Alas that little plan was shelved ,I managed to buy thirty rai with a deal to buy another forty of the same guy at the end of his third crop early next year but renting just wasn't happening ,still looking though

[farmerkevin]

Thanks, silva. Very helpful comments. I've been told 2 or 3 years depends on soil quality; so it would be a 2y with an option on a 3rd year.

I think as canada has said they will want at least three years. I have been buying land for the last three years , Nobody will sell untill they have had that third crop harvested . Then it needs the old out new planted which means extra expence of plants tractor for that year.

Hope this helps , I have tried this year to rent land but couldn't get one rai wanted as much as two hundred rai .Alas that little plan was shelved ,I managed to buy thirty rai with a deal to buy another forty of the same guy at the end of his third crop early next year but renting just wasn't happening ,still looking though

We've got 27 rai farming land up for sale in Roi-Et. That's the one I plan to rent out now for sugar, as I go crazy from all these Thai calling and saying that for sure they will buy it and eventually they don't even bother to come to see it. Or they come up with some kind of scam where they say they have set up a fund that will buy the land and cheaply rent out to poor farmers.... two weeks later they call to say we have to wait a little for the money, but ion the mean time they can sell us 'black gold' from Laos that we could resell to N-Korea at a huge profit. OMG.

We want to sell (or rent out) the 27 rai, as we recently bought a house 140km away and so it will be difficult to monitor/manage it ourselves. Should anybody be interested to buy or rent, send me a private message.