Pm Thaksin Resigns

[Plus]

People somehow forget that the elections weren't fare and free and Thaksin is certainly not a DEMOCRATICALLY elected leader.

Many of those millons who were paid or told to vote won't give a toss if he resigned.

There are no demonstrations of any kind to protest his resignation or protest against PAD or anything at all.

Caravan of the Poor went to TRT's headquarters on Phetburi, and in my own estimate there were hardly a thousand people - I passed it twice. And we know Caravan's protests are sponsored by TRT itself. Newin Chidchob, to be exact.

Thais love for TRT is overrated.

[tettyan]

Democracy has now started in Thailand?!

I don't think so.

What has been continued was that city people dominate over upcountry people, that the votes of upcountry folks are not worth anything. Just please analyse the last 5 years. Have city people led by an elite split from the ruling TRT (and the powers of the PAD are nothing else) demonstrated after the drug war killings? No.

After Tak Bai? No.

What brought them to the streets en masse was the shin corp sale. Nothing else, only money. Human rights, an essential part of democracy, has not brought anyone of the PAD and their supporters to the streets, and also played only a minor role during the demonstrations. We farang might be enraged about those gross human rights violations, but you won't find many Thais on both vocal sides of the fence who care much about that.

What happens here during this discussion on the web board between mainly farang is that most interprete the present situation from a western, or a Thai middle class background, and globalised set of ideals. What seems to me completely forgotten that this country here has far more than half of the population stuck in abject poverty, and all that goes with this sort of poverty. Their experience of life is far removed from anything modern, behind their daughter's mobiles is an archaic society. Those people had with TRT the first time a political party that at least played lip service to their needs, and actually did something for them.

From their viewpoint, the rich city people took their votes away. The question here is not if Thaksin was an "evil" man, but that a huge sector of Thai society, that only with TRT and Thaksin first experienced the power of their vote, has been shown that their vote is worth nothing when city people, as they view the demonstrators, do force through demonstration their elected PM out.

Thaksin was not brought down by elections, he was brought down by city based demonstrations, and that is all those rural poor supporting Thaksin will remember. Democracy in Thailand is only in its infancy, and more important than an autocratic, but elected PM, is that the whole population takes part in the experiment of democracy. After the de facto resignation of Thaksin the upcountry population supporting him will not for a very long time put any trust into democracy anymore. This might turn out far more harmful to Thailand's future development than a continued rule of Thaksin.

What makes the situation even worse is that the two most powerful men of the PAD - Sondhi and Chamlong - do not exactly come from any democratic background either. Sondhi is a crony capitalist, and Chamlong a Buddhist fundamentalist from a staunchly militaristic nationalist background. Both never carried any respect whatsoever in the countryside.

So far, no other party available has any history or track record of working for the rural poor in Isaarn and the North. They have hardly any support there outside the city centres, no grass roots organisation, no support under the population there. During the recent trouble they have not managed to make any headway in those areas either. Therefore i have certain doubts that they will make the necessary changes in order to get those rural poor to their side.

The endresult will be that large sectors of the rural population have not learned the necessary lesson that a populist PM is in the long run not beneficial for them. That means that a few years down the line, the next one, maybe even worse than Thaksin will be coming up again.

Democracy in Thailand has experienced a huge set back right now.

I couldn't have said it any better.

Looking at the election results by constituency, what strikes me is that the way each constituency voted distirbingly correlates with "haves" vs "have-nots". Other than BKK and the South, the No vote topped TRT in the Eastern Seaboard, a region quite well-off by Thai standards, in 11 of 16 constituencies. The No vote also did well in the Amphur Muangs (District 1) of many central provinces. In the north, the No vote topped TRT in only 3 of 75 districts. But the most glaring result is in the northeast, where the No vote exceeded TRT votes in only ONE constituency. That constituency was Nakhon Ratchasima's District 1, which is basically the heart of Thailand's second-largest city, hardly representative of the region.

Is Thai politics headed for the class-warfare model?

[hammered]

People somehow forget that the elections weren't fare and free and Thaksin is certainly not a DEMOCRATICALLY elected leader.

Many of those millons who were paid or told to vote won't give a toss if he resigned.

There are no demonstrations of any kind to protest his resignation or protest against PAD or anything at all.

Caravan of the Poor went to TRT's headquarters on Phetburi, and in my own estimate there were hardly a thousand people - I passed it twice. And we know Caravan's protests are sponsored by TRT itself. Newin Chidchob, to be exact.

Thais love for TRT is overrated.

Your last sentence is certainly true for the many farming villages in the northern region where my wife has family. In many he is liked by a majority and hated by a minority. In others he is hated by a majority and liked by some. The one thing that holds true is the intensity of the dislike by those who hold it is far stronger than the intensity of those who like him.

Another thing that has been missed in this elction is that some TRT MPs are liked and doing a good job. These manage to get votes even from Thaksin's enemies. The whole thing is a lot more complicated than a referendum on Thaksin.

[Plus]

the way each constituency voted distirbingly correlates with "haves" vs "have-nots"

Perhaps it's the access to information, especially Internet. Sondhi's Manager is/was most populat Thai news website, I think.

Another reason is that "haves" are less likely to be bought, while "have nots" will vote for Satan himself very cheaply.

Will it turn into a class warfare? Not likely. If Democrats can come up with acceptable 30-baht paracetamol sheme reform and show the way out of the endless cycle of cheap loans, people will vote for them.

One thing Thaksin really taught them - they can vote for policies, not for individuals (as long as policies come from Thaksin).

Problem is Democrat's party isn't sophisticated enough or isn't professional enough to compete head on with Thaksin's TRT in terms of policies and PR. They had lots of time to catch up, though. And it's not unimaginable that they can attract large TRT factions with all their know-how in their camp.

The ball is Demos court really. All they need is to hit it back - their opponents are lying belly up on the grass.

[sriracha john]

People somehow forget that the elections weren't fare and free and Thaksin is certainly not a DEMOCRATICALLY elected leader.

Many of those millons who were paid or told to vote won't give a toss if he resigned.

There are no demonstrations of any kind to protest his resignation or protest against PAD or anything at all.

Caravan of the Poor went to TRT's headquarters on Phetburi, and in my own estimate there were hardly a thousand people - I passed it twice. And we know Caravan's protests are sponsored by TRT itself. Newin Chidchob, to be exact.

Thais love for TRT is overrated.

If that's the case, then the BMA should send Newin a bill.

Evening news reported what a horrible mess was left in Chatuchak park after the "Caravan" group departed their "ideal village mock-up", or whatever it was touted as. Garbage and refuse were left all over the place and will require a big clean-up. Footage showed trash strewn all over and in the beautiful ponds and grounds that were occupied.

[Plus]

I've typed a long post about the Caravan, but then I realised - this topic isn't going anywhere and should be closed.

Thaksin resigned, he let Chidchai to take over and is going to England for a week or two.

Nothing new can be said about it anymore.

[ColPyat]

Colonel, if you know Thailand well, you will know Thaksin is unique, in that he has a war chest big enough to buy up most people, plus a gift for forming populist policies without any scruples as to the consequencies.

It would be difficult to find someone with deep enough pockets to replace him.

You constantly refer to the poor loving him, your experience of the 30 baht scheme must be unique because none of my relatives have ever received anything from it.

The 1 village, one million baht- most people could only borrow 10,000 baht a head, at 10 % interest, their children could send them more.

Thaksin at the village At Samart, just handing out money like a feudal lord, no 'teaching a man how to fish', sickening public relations.

No TRT MP ever dare cross Thaksin, the CTX scandal, etc, 'everybody raise their hands, Suriya, he must be innocent'.

Before Thaksin, Chavalit with his New Inspiration party promised an 'Issan green', Amnuay Wirawan, ex-finance Minister even started a party for a while, Thaksin is not the first, and won't be the last, to promise to end poverty in Issan.

The problem in Issan is education, in the south you don't have to buy votes, when Thaksin made his remarks last year in Trang,'chopping pork is easy', he enraged the southerners, and what did he get? one MP out of 53.

But I have hope, education is spreading in Issan, the young are working in Bangkok, Chonburi, Ayuttaya, hard work and long hours, but they're getting experience away from the kanman.

One of the worst things about Thaksin, which perhaps farangs cannot really grasp, has been is intimidation of the media, especially TV.

After 1992's overthrow of Suchinda, ITV was born and there were many intelligent programmes of public affairs, Thaksin stopped all that, dismissing any dissent on TV, banning programmes, regarding newspapers, he threatened to withold advertisements, either for governmental ministries or for AIS, if any opposing views were expressed.

The poor will survive Thaksin, and one day they will stand on their own feet, not depend on a CEO!

Colonel, if you understand Thai well enough, you will know the PAD frequently talk about development of communities, to describe them as only an urban elite is misleading.

Displeasure with Thaksin has been building up for a long time, and the sale to to Themasak was the fuse to light the fire for the middle class, why Thaksin could not see that, I don't understand.

Regarding the drug war, 95% of the population approved of the extra judicial killings.

Yes, the vast majority of Thais have approved of the extra judical killings, and that includes most of the PAD leaders and followers as well. Which is particularly important in the context of them trying to have more democracy in Thailand. The upholding of human rights and the rule of law is one of the basic pillars of democracy.

We do not disagree with what you accuse Thaksin of.

Regading the 30 Baht scheme, it depends where you are based. In Bangkok and surrounding it does not work that well yet, but where it is needed most, upcountry, it does work amazingly well, even though it is notoriously underfunded. For example, regarding AIDS, you have large numbers of infected from Bangkok registering upcountry as the do not get into the Bangkok qutoas, but upcountry hospitals to not care much about quotas. I do know of hospitals upcountry who even supply non Thais with free medication under the 30 Baht scheme.

And, it is better than what you had before.

You say that the poor one day will stand on their own feet. But who helps them making the first steps? Just talking about "community development" is easy. I have heard all the theories since the day i came to Thailand. But nobody has done it. None of the parties, not the democrats as well, have done any sustantial improvements. The gap between the relatively wealthy mainly urban based middle classes and the rural poor is ever increasing.

Given, Thaksin's programs were mostly populist, and in the long term extremely damaging. Such his easy loan schemes (there were more than just the relatively harmless 1 mio. baht scheme, far worse was the change in legislation that allowed holders of Sor Por Kor 401 land titles to give those titles as collateral for sometimes stupid amounts), or his large scale argo schemes.

But, he managed to get the poor sectors to not only trust into him, but into the sythem. From their viewpoint, they had a PM that cared about them. From their viewpoint, he was ousted by a city elite over their heads.

Did they make a mistake to put their trust into Thaksin? From my viewpoint - yes, they made a mistake. But they can't be patronised forever, democracy means also that people have to learn their own lessons from their own mistakes. Right now, they have only learned that they don't count as much as the rich city people. That is a lesson they have learned many times already. They have not learned that they put their hopes and trust in the wrong man.

How do you propose to get those people, the rural poor, back into democracy? In an emerging democracy as Thailand is, one of the possibly biggest mistakes has been done, and that, i fear will have far worse long term consequences than a few more years of Thaksin. Thaksin has already done the worst he could.

A lesson i personally learned for me during the last couple of months, is to seperate my personal emotions from analysing the political situation. Yes, i despise Thaksin, mainly though for the reasons Thais don't care much about, like the killings in the drugwar, and tak Bai.

But it became more and more obvious to me, that the worsening class divisions are far more destructive to Thailand's emerging democracy than a continued rule of Thaksin. Yes, i know, Thaksin played the class card from the beginning. But the PAD has also used the same tactics by mainly appealing to what the urban based middle classes want. This will have dire consequences.

The South is a different situation. Firstly, the southern people are economically better of than the rural poor in the North and Isaarn. And the are staunchly democrat. They know that the deomcrats do develop the South more than other parts of the country.

I am under no illusion that apart from Chuan, and maybe now Abhisit and Korn, most Democrat leaders are as corrupt as anybody else in the game of politics. Rmember the Sor Por Kor 401 scandal in Phuket, that brought the first Chuan government down?

I have not seen yet that any political party, or the PAD, came up with any feasable alternative they can present to the rural poor. They talk about the constitution, corruption (as long as it is not their own ), and transparancy.

But that matters little if you have no, or hardly no land, when your family collapses, your daughters are in prostitution, and your sons only wait for the money their sisters send upcountry.

[lukamar]

I've been reading this thread without making comment.

Some of you seem to look at the poll numbers and read things into it that may not be there.

If you throw out the numbers from the last general election where TRT had a nation wide landslide and if you look at the numbers from the Jan 6 2001 election you will see that spoiled ballots ranged from 8.6 to 10% not that different than April 2, 2006.

Also, in 2001, the TRT received 32.14% of the popular vote in the remaining partied received 45.8% if you extrapolate that out to this election the ratio lowers for the opposition/no vote, if anything the opposition/No Vote actually have lost ground in the last 5 years.

Thaksin resigning is just another political move on his part to effectively take him out of the mix for the by-elections and possibly the next elections opening the door to the TRT gaining even more seats than they have now.

Another thing you all seem to have neglected to take into account is that Thaksin made promises thorough the election but was very careful not to make statements that would pull the party into those announcements. The new PM will not be held to the promises made by the former PM, like elections in 15 months.

2001 election stats

[ColPyat]

Looking at the election results by constituency, what strikes me is that the way each constituency voted distirbingly correlates with "haves" vs "have-nots".

Very true. A lot of people forget that the rural areas have extremely strict class divisions as well between rich and poor.

[TAWP]

The major difference is at what level they will sell their votes.

[ColPyat]

The major difference is at what level they will sell their votes.

Most people "sell" their votes, one way or the other. The vast majority of humans anywhere in the democratic world vote for the one they personally get most out of. Be it the international business man who votes for the party that gives him tax breaks, but does save at social security, or the shift worker that votes for the one who he feels supports the unions the best.

It is rather sad, that the rural poor in Thailand have been consistently reduced to the point that the only thing they get out of a politician is 200 or 500 baht. From their viewpoint, at least TRT has given that, and the first almost free healthcare, and access to cheap loans.

If you think that the other parties here don't buy votes, then you have not been here long enough, or you are completely blind.

Edited April 6, 2006 by ColPyat

[TAWP]

Getting stuck in a loan-trap isn't 'cheap loan'.

It's just another loan-trap.

What the poor [rural] needs isn't money, it's knowledge what to do with them. As has been proven again and again.

And once again you fail to comprehend what others type. That all parties buy votes have been continually aknowledged by many. Unlike some, many of us aren't one-eyed.

Edited April 6, 2006 by TAWP

[ColPyat]

What the poor [rural] needs isn't money, it's knowledge what to do with them. As has been proven again and again.

Yeah, Einstein, can you tell me any single political party in Thailand ever has seen any importance to give those poor folks that sort of knowledge?

I reckon, if that would have happened, we would not be right now here debating about the merits of Thaksin and his polpulist policies, wouldn't we? And, as the talk about educating the poor folks has been around before Thaksin was born, and not much has really happened since, i have certain doubts that this will happen in the foreseeable future. Talk is easy.

[lukamar]

What the poor [rural] needs isn't money, it's knowledge what to do with them. As has been proven again and again.

I'm guessing you have not spent much time with the rural poor. They can't put food on the table directly with knowledge, it will help in the long run if it is put forward as good agricultural training, irrigation projects, medical and sound marketing for their products. What they need is money to feed their families, knowledge based on the thoughts of a group of people in Bangkok, who share none of their day to day problems is the last thing they need. It's hard to relate with the poor if you are making as much in a month as they are in a year or more and it's hard for them to relate to you as well.

There is a rift between the rich and the poor, now more than ever, and thankfully the poor hold the balance of power, because of their numbers, otherwise they would be ignored.

[Anon999]

"Doctor" for receiving a PhD from a university in America yet possesses abilities in English that are surpassed by a typical Prathom 2 public school student.

Probably best if we just all referred to him by the title that he prefers himself, "Maew"

There are native English speakers who have abilities in English that are dreadful, however, it does not necessarily prevent them from being successful in business.

As you are obviously so well educated maybe being less cynical would be a good place to start.

hi...

yes its easy to condemn... just wonder what Mr john does for a living or indeed what he has ever achieved....

amarka

It's particularly easy to condemn someone when they've done so many things to be condemned for.

What I have achieved is that I have managed to go through life without being responsible for the murder of 2,300 people in one situation and the deaths of 1,300 people in another.

Quite a remarkable achievement, eh?

Your answer has nothing whatsoever to do with my original post or the comment by 'amarka' about what you HAVE achieved. Try answering my observation on your inappropriate comment about his ENGLISH abilities just for a start. Maybe you do not have an answer?

Furthermore from your reply I guess you were there to corroborate the death tolls or maybe you just believe everything you hear or read from the media?

Edited April 6, 2006 by Anon999

[Anon999]

Sriracha john I forgot to mention your reply smacked of the self righteous.

Edited April 6, 2006 by Anon999

[asd]

Democrat celebrates 60th anniversary

The Democrat Party celebrates the 60th anniversary of its establishment Thursday.

Former Democrat MPs and leading party members attended the celebration at the party head office.

Leading members of other parties also attended the celebration, including Chat Thai Party deputy leader Somsak Prissanananthakul and Chat Thai director Nikorn Jamnong.

Former Thai Rak Thai party-list MP Pramual Rujanaseri and Nakhon Ratchasima senatorial candidate Pornthep Tejapaiboon also attended the event.

----------------------------------------------------------

Abhisit says Thaksin may play puppet master role

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva Thursday voiced concern that outgoing Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would play the role of puppet master over the next prime minister.

Thaksin expressed the concern while making a speech at a ceremony to commemorate the 60th anniversary of Democrat Party's establishment.

Abhisit said it would be good for the country if Thaksin decided to take a break from politics for the situation to ease out.

But, he said, it would pose great danger to the democracy if Thaksin decided to step aside so that he could control the new prime minister from behind the scene.

"Thaksin may step away so that he can have power over the prime minister. He will create a special status, which will pose great danger to democracy because he will have power without having to take any responsibility," Abhisit said.

Abhisit said the people and civil servants had to rise against the Thaksin regime and would not allow Thaksin to control the power from behind the scene.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/

----------------------------------------------------------

Abhisit Vejjajiva (born 3 August 1964), Thai politician, has been leader of the opposition Democrat Party since February 2005. He is a central figure in the current crisis in Thai politics, leading a boycott of the 2 April election called by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Abhisit was born to Thai parents in Newcastle-upon-Tyne in the United Kingdom. After graduating from Eton College, he enrolled at Oxford University, where he graduated with a Bachelor's degree (first class honours) in Philosophy, Politics and Economics and a Master's degree in economics. He also received his Bachelor's degree in law from Ramkamhaeng University, Thailand.

After graduation, he taught economics at Thammasat University and Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. He is married to dentist Pimpen Sakuntabhai. They have two children.

Abhisit started his career in politics in 1992 as a Democrat MP for Bangkok. He was reelected to the same seat in 1995 and 1996.

In the elections of 2001 and 2005, he was returned to parliament as a Party List MP for the Democrat Party. During his political career, he has served as Democrat Party spokesman, Government spokesman, Deputy-Secretary to the Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Chairman of the House Education Affairs Committee and Minister to the Prime Minister's Office.

----------------------------------------------------------

[sriracha john]

"Doctor" for receiving a PhD from a university in America yet possesses abilities in English that are surpassed by a typical Prathom 2 public school student.

Probably best if we just all referred to him by the title that he prefers himself, "Maew"

There are native English speakers who have abilities in English that are dreadful, however, it does not necessarily prevent them from being successful in business.

As you are obviously so well educated maybe being less cynical would be a good place to start.

hi...

yes its easy to condemn... just wonder what Mr john does for a living or indeed what he has ever achieved....

amarka

It's particularly easy to condemn someone when they've done so many things to be condemned for.

What I have achieved is that I have managed to go through life without being responsible for the murder of 2,300 people in one situation and the deaths of 1,300 people in another.

Quite a remarkable achievement, eh?

Your answer has nothing whatsoever to do with my original post or the comment by 'amarka' about what you HAVE achieved. Try answering my observation on your inappropriate comment about his ENGLISH abilities just for a start. Maybe you do not have an answer?

Furthermore from your reply I guess you were there to corroborate the death tolls or maybe you just believe everything you hear or read from the media?

I'm sorry, but I did construct a serious, lengthy reply to your original post, but unfortunately it never made it to posting due to the long server outage that hit TV that day... and thus is lost for good.

I do admit that when TV returned and I read amarka's superfluous add-on... I simply combined the two for my above terse response, which regrettably addresses her post more so than yours. As I'm neither the subject of the thread nor the leader of this nation, my career and my achievements are of no one’s concern but my own.

To address your original comment, I would agree. There are indeed quite a number of successful business people that struggle with English, but far fewer of them possess PhD’s. It’s such a grueling process, no matter what the subject matter is, and people that have lesser skills in their English ability tend to not finish that process. My bone of contention with Thaksin is really not in that he struggles with English, that’s a very universal experience when anyone is dealing with a second language. It is the grandiose, pompous way he flaunts his “Dr.” title and his habit of interjecting English into his Cabinet meetings, speeches, etc. (usually incorrectly, btw), again in a flamboyant attempt to show off his learned background. This has not gone unnoticed by the Thai people themselves and is mockingly included in the current hit song, “Square-face Man.”

As for your second round of comments, I would tend to believe what has been reported world-wide by every press report generated on the subject. If you have news articles that indeed describe that the 2,300 Drug War murders DIDN’T occur or that 1,300 people HAVEN’T died in the South, I would be very much interested in reading them.

In the meantime, as the saying goes… a picture can be worth a thousand words:

Situation 1

Situation 2

As the initiator of the first one and the leader of this nation for the severe deterioration of second one, the responsibility for both lay “squarely” at his feet.

[sriracha john]

Sriracha john I forgot to mention your reply smacked of the self righteous.

I'm sorry if it came across that way... murderous thugs have that effect on me.

[tettyan]

The voting numbers don't back up any over-simplification of the analysis of the results. It goes far deeper than BKK versus upcountry, city versus rural, etc.

What is prevalent throughout the numbers is the unprecedented number of invalidated ballots in every district that has reported results. If we are to accept the idea that these were intentionally invalidated by the voters themselves (and I've not really read any other reasons for it's occurrence from either the media or the EC), then what that reveals is an incredible amount of frustration and anger directed towards the previous ruling party. As mentioned earlier, they are more of a "no vote" than the actual "no votes" themselves.

These unprecedented numbers totaled almost 2 million votes nationwide and numbered up to the tens of thousands per individual districts in both the North and the Northwest. If Thaksin is so well loved in these areas, (some would have us believe it's to the point of his being universally loved and hero-worshipped by all in these areas of Thailand), the number of these extreme forms of displaying displeasure and disillusionment with the previous ruling party, by intentionally invalidating one's ballot, contradict that notion.

Obviously there is much dissent in the North and the Northwest towards Thaksin and his TRT policies. He is NOT unconditionally loved by ALL the people residing in these areas.

These ballots with their ridiculing writings and angry, sarcastic drawings, etc. say to Thaksin, not only do we NOT love you... we despise you to the very core.

Rhetoric telling us he is loved is one thing, but the actual numbers of not only the dissatisfied but the extremely dissatisfied voters are another.

Certainly.. in the end Thaksin’s party did win these districts... but by no means were these wins not without vast numbers of people that thought it best for the previous ruling party to end.

The manner in which they displayed this displeasure was in the strongest possible manner they could have taken.

For the benefit of you all, I have been working on the numbers.

Througout the country, the NO vote topped TRT in 116 out of 400 districts. If the opposition had run unified in the election and we assume that NO votes represent votes that would have gone to the opposition's unity candidate, in the constituency segment, we would have had 284 TRT MPs vs 116 opposition. For party list, if we assume that both NO votes and invalid ballots were for the opposition, that gives us 62 TRT seats vs 38 for the opposition. Ahhh... but you may say that if Chart Thai had actually run, they would have picked up more party list votes from TRT in Suphan Buri. Fair enough. Let's assume then that TRT would have won 60 party list seats vs 40 for the opposition. So including the constituencies, that gives a total of 344 TRT MPs vs 156 for the opposition.

But Sriracha John asks "what about the large number of spoiled ballots in the constituencies?". We can't just assume that all the spoiled votes would have gone to the opposition - people spoil their votes for a number of reasons, but anecdotal evidence suggests that many spoiled their ballots out of protest. Fair enough, so let's assume that in constituencies where the NO vote combined with spoiled ballots exceeds the TRT candidate's total by 5000 votes, the opposition would have won the seat. These conditions are met in 14 constituencies througout the country. So the total comes to 328 for TRT vs 172 for the opposition.

Ahh... but one more thing. TRT votes topped no votes in almost all the districts where there was a Chart Thai or Mahachon incumbent. Had these two parties run candidates, it would have been reasonable for them to keep the seats out of the hands of TRT. OK then, I'm going to assume that all Chart Thai and Mahachon incumbents would have won. I will even hand all four constituencies in Phichit, the home of Mahachon leader Sanan, to the opposition (even though they didn't win them last time). That leaves 307 seats for TRT vs 193 for the opposition. By Thai standards, that's still a landslide victory. In fact, the second biggest in Thai history, after Thaksin's feat last year.

I've done all I can to spin the numbers the opposition's way, but the sad reality is that Thaksin still would have won in a free and fair election.

Edited April 7, 2006 by tettyan

[Tolley]

marshbags said

"The nice thing is democracy has now changed for ever after this, thanks to all the people who took part in the demonstrations.

We can be satisfied for now on what has been achieved, in my humble opinion of course."

You have a very strange notion of democracy.

The fact is that the TRT party won this election and the last one as well. They are the democratically elected government.

Who they choose as leader is of course up to the party to decide.

Undoubtedly Thaksin has some serious questions to answer but the demonstrators and the oppostion have no legitimate claim to government unless they are duely elected by the people.

Most Thai people still believe that TRT is the best option regardless of what question marks hang over Thaksin.

You are of course welcome to your view Tolley.

Thai politics have changed if you care to look back on the events both before and after these demonstrations for democracy and freedom.

The TRT party will never again under estimate the will of all Thai people to have a say without fear of continual censorship, lack of transparency, fair elections, the right to speak and all the other things that where engrained by Thaksin and his party of self enriching colleagues.

If you think things will revert back to this then you must have been somewhere else for the last few weeks.

Democracy is about freedom, change, classlesness and tolerance to all and this has now started to happen in Thailand. " I repeat started "

Thanks to the changes in the mind set of the past and violent intervention of all who spoke out, people will not allow dictatorial rule to continue out of fear.

If Thaksin ever proves he is innocent of abusing his powers and position and returns to politics even he will no longer take society as a whole for granted and again you should know this.

Therefore democratically Thailand has changed forever and you,d better believe it. " Read Began to change "

O.K. so things will take time, but look at the broader picture here and the implications of the last few weeks...... please.

Regarding electing the TRT everyone knows the methods they use in getting the votes, just look at all the intimidational tactics they used this time.

Even though they where the only party standing the polling stations did their best to intimidate the no voters while at the same time blackmailing the Moo Bans with their threats to withdraw benefits from the people in need in places like the North East.

This is the old TRT style and typical again of their hierachy that hopefully will begin to change for the benefit of all no matter what their status in life is.

This was their pledge when they got elected the first time and the party was formed, remember.

Even now Thaksin is continually working behind the scenes and minipulatilng/ pulling strings, you only need to look at who is to act as his replacement.

The factions within the party know this full well and will hopefully apply the pressure to change the perception of how they wish to take themselves forward by electing someone else independant of any ties with Thaksins Thailand.

Let us hope for the sake of Thailands future this is their intentions/aim.

marshbags

I don't believe anything has fundamentally changed so if you can stop your flag waving for a moment let's examine the facts.

Some of the intelligensia aided by the middle class have decided they have had enough of Thaksin and his style of leadership. The opposition has been quick to align themselves with this anti Thaksin movement.

A look at the pedigrees of the opposition leaders does not reveal any real change in the status quo of Thai politics and is no cause for optimism.

Until there are wide ranging infrastructure reforms and the rooting out of entrenched cronyism and corruption Thailand is doomed to follow the same path it now travels.

Look at the Phillipines and you will see many similarities with Thailand. The people get fed up with their leaders and force them out. There is a wave of optimism as the new guard takes over and then things settle down and the whole process is repeated again.

Why?

Because of institutionalised corruption, rampant cronyism, lack of transparency in government, lack of due legal process etc.

So until there is fundamental reforms regardless of who comes to power nothing much is really going to change in Thailand.

[Jai Dee]

Mr. Bhokin says Thai Rak Thai Party is completely sincere in its work

The Deputy Leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party, Mr. Bhokin Bhalakula (โภคิน พลกุล), stressed that his party is completely sincere in it’s strive for political reform, and stated hat the party is not trying to buy time to gain popularity.

Even though many groups many consider the current constitutional changes a hindrance to executive monitoring, especially of Dr. Thaksin and his ruling party, Mr. Bhokin stated that his party is completely sincere in its work. He added that there may be changes to the process used to examine the work of the prime minister, as the original system required two out of five votes from the Parliament, or about 200 representatives in favor of, an impeachment of the prime minister. Mr. Bhokin said that this system may be revised to one out of five votes, or about 100 representatives in favor of the impeachment.

Mr. Bhokin added that the Thai Rak Thai Party is ready to aid other candidates in their parliamentary elections in order to conduct a fair election.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 07 April 2006

[Jai Dee]

PAD asserts their victory over Dr. Thaksin

The coordinator of the People's Alliance for Democrary (PAD), Mr. Suriyasai Katasila (สุริยะใส กตะศิลา), stated the PAD's recent protest at Sanam Luang on April 6th was meant to declare the group's victory.

The PAD coodinator stated that the group's purpose in continuing their protest in Sanam Luang was to declare their first victory, and to point out the stance that they have towards the current political situation in which the Prime Minister has resolved to abstain from present political activities. Mr. Suriyasai stated that the group will be moving towards its second political reform work, and asserts that the group's recent protest in Sanam Luang was not to put political pressure on the nation, but to fight for democracy.

The PAD conducted a speech stating their stance towards Dr. Thaksin and their planned political reform at 9 PM on April 6th, which was concluded at 2 AM on April 7th.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 07 April 2006

[marshbags]

Quote by Siripon:-

Regarding the drug war, 95% of the population approved of the extra judicial killings.

…………………………………………………………………………………………..............................................

....

I,m not sure if this response is going off topic but I need to offer mine to your observation which I know is totally off the mark and is born out of not being in touch with true sentiment.

Let,s be honest about the extinction of the small time dealers, it was an exercise by the suppliers to silence them and keep their own identities safe.

It was “ murder most foul and included many, many innocents “

Another non democratic action instigated by Thaksin to garner support and to pathetically enhance his reputation through this inhumane action.

History will judge his true achievements while holding the premiers position.

These evil people rank of politicians, police ect. and some pu yai among them,

I,ll separate the last group to include those not connected to the first two.

No one has sympathy for drug related convictions and just punishment but this was not just.

Again I repeat the " Guilty " suppliers are the ones that should have suffered the death sentence and extermination, not most of the victims of this infamous action.

Of course the guilty dealers need to be punished while the addicts need help also.

But murdered for the silence of the identities of the above groups of who not one has been killed/ punished. ????????????????????????????????? come on now........................

Also as an additional observation that is confirmed today.

The 30 baht health scheme much heralded by the TRT and it,s supporters was not their idea and was politically hijacked from medical academics as noted by the Nation today.

Taken from the full article is the following excerpt :-

Quote:-

Scheme needs name change

In the second part of a series, The Nation talks to a founder of the universal healthcare scheme to find out what adjustments are needed for it to survive.

Many people believe that if you want to change your fate, you should start by changing your name. Dr Sanguan Nitayarumphong does not think of himself as particularly superstitious, but he still believes a good way to de-politicise the Bt30 health scheme is perhaps to give it a new name.

"Perhaps, it should simply be known as the 'universal healthcare' scheme," said Sanguan, referring to his brainchild health security scheme that was adopted by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as a flagship policy of his Thai Rak Thai Party five years ago.

Go to [ http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/04/07...es_30001188.php[/url ] for the full article.

This only reiterates what most people have been saying for a long time now and for the TRT to claim otherwise in their manifesto prior to elections is just another lie.

Not much credit to Thaksin for this concept which he only adopted for political gain then, eh.

marshbags

Edited April 7, 2006 by marshbags

[micky]

Democrat leader, Abhist, said that Thaksin may play puppet master role.

His statement does not carry water and is most unfounded.

He is no historian. He does not study political history and he

knows nothing about world history, other than Thailand.

Once a new PM takes over, the former PM is history.

As a classical saying, ' The war is over '.

I personally think that Abhist is too young and his knowledge of world

politics is only limited to Thailand only.

Democracy is something very new to Thailand. Assuming a new Government

takes over. Then a certain group does not like the new PM. Then history will

repeat again....... take it to the streets and scream till the cows come home.

Wake up Thailand. Do not put personal vendetta into politics.

Let the voters decide. That is what true democracy is all about.

[Jai Dee]

EC calls on voters in 39 constituencies to exercise the 2nd voting rights

The Election Commission has called on eligible voters in the 39 constituencies throughout the country which have to hold by-elections to exercise their voting rights again on April 23rd.

EC Deputy Spokesperson Ruangrote Jomsueb (เรืองโรจน์ จอมสืบ) said there will be no advance voting for the by-elections. Those who have registered to use their rights outside their domicile are requested to return to respective localities to exercise their rights.

By-elections will be held in Constituency 3 of Nonthaburi, and those constituencies where there was single candidate who failed to win at least 20 percent of the electorate requirement in Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan and most of the southern provinces.

The EC said it hopes to gain full cooperation from voters, the result of which will yield the full parliamentary seats of 500, thus enabling the House of Representatives to convene as scheduled.

Mr. Ruangrote commented however that voters who cannot go back for the polls on April 23rd will not be regarded as losing their voting rights because they have already informed of the change of voting sites.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 07 April 2006

[Jai Dee]

EC chief calling on public not to tear voting ballots as the action was detrimental to democracy

The chairperson of the Election Commission (EC), Mr. Wassana Phermlarp (วาสนา เพิ่มลาภ), is calling on the public not to tear voting ballots, as the action would destroy democracy. In the meantime, the election result in Samut Sakhon Province is proving to be a problem due to the number of ballots not matching the number of voters.

EC Chief Wassana revealed after inspecting the 3rd constituency in Samutsakorn to investigate on the matter, saying that the election result can not yet be declared for the particular constituency due to the mismatch. He said time would be required for the inspection, but the result should be confirmed before the by-election. He said that it should be known by Monday whether a new round of tallying would have to be carried out.

As for the rally in parts of the south, for people to tear up voting ballots, the EC Chief said the law will have to be cited. However, he is urging that people refrain from offering such encouragement.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 07 April 2006

[Miaow]

Sriracha john I forgot to mention your reply smacked of the self righteous.

I'm sorry if it came across that way... murderous thugs have that effect on me.

So, does that mean you spend as much time on American forums? Heard there are quite a few disgruntled Americans wanting to oust G.W. Bush and reinstore democracy there too...

Not to mention electoral fraud and extra judicial killings...Or media control...Didn't Thaksin study in the States? Sorry, just couldn't resist that one

[Sandstone Art]

micky,

Democrat leader, Abhist, is not just echoing his personal sentiment. It is a very obvious thing to 'know' even before such things happen.

If Thaksin is the head of TRT , don't you think he still has considerable 'weight' in the saying of eg new policies etc?

If the new PM is from TRT, he will still be ranked below Thaksin in the party. What does this shows?

There is no personal vendetta for Abhist to gain against Thaksin. But I do not rule out others for wanting their personal vendetta from the EX-PM He had made too many enemies

[lukamar]

That leaves 307 seats for TRT vs 193 for the opposition. By Thai standards, that's still a landslide victory. In fact, the second biggest in Thai history, after Thaksin's feat last year.

I've done all I can to spin the numbers the opposition's way, but the sad reality is that Thaksin still would have won in a free and fair election.

A landslide is the 460 TRT to 1 Opposition in this elections outcome, even if the other parties can/will run in the by elections and win all vacant 39 seats. It's hard to spin those numbers into a kind of a TRT loss.