Why is Yingluck not going to Washington?

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Why is Yingluck not going to Washington?
Kavi Chongkittavorn
Washington

BANGKOK: -- Since becoming the country's first woman prime minister two years ago, Yingluck Shinawatra has travelled near and far, taking 36 overseas trips as of last week, costing the taxpayers a total of Bt69 million.

Unfortunately, she has not yet visited Washington - the ultimate trip. In fact, she might not be able to make it granted the current state of Thai politics and the mess she is currently entangled in.

Unless Thai-US relations get a quick fix from their top leaders, Yingluck's US trip is not in the pipeline. Some explanations for this are:

First, Thailand is no longer the only ally the US has to court, as in the past. The Thai establishment, especially the military, still acts pretty much without realising that a Thai-US alliance exists on paper only. The US has new friends, who behave and act like more than allies, willing to cooperate and enter into strategic arrangements without fear. Myanmar and Vietnam are two good examples. They are new US strategic partners. Their diplomats to Washington meet US officials more often than do the Thais, whose ambassadors keep changing.

Second, sad but true, there is simply no value-added to having Yingluck visit Washington now or in the future. Besides photo opportunities, there are no outstanding issues to take up. If there is any serious issue, such as the expanded use of U-tapao, a Royal Thai Navy airfield, it has been politicised and long undermined on the ground already.

The Thai government has been pressing the US Embassy in Bangkok for an official invitation for quite some time. It is not coming any time soon. For now, bilateral meetings are possible among the corridors of major meetings at the UN General Assembly, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, East Asia Summit and the Asean-US Summit. Leaders from Myanmar and Vietnam did not take long to secure White House invitations, because they were important to the US re-balancing effort. Their leaders are smarter; just read their joint statements and compare them to the one in November that Yingluck and Obama produced when he dropped by for 16 hours. The differences are stark.

Third, Thailand still has two prime ministers. Policy-makers in Washington are perplexed and at times confused. Being the world's first prime minister by Skype living in exile, Thaksin has made the rounds of the Beltway and around the world as the virtual Thai prime minister. After all, he controls his sister's agenda. Whenever she displays a bit of her political or diplomatic finesse, her brother will tweet to tell the world he is still in charge. The visa-free agreement between Montenegro and Thailand was a case in point following's Thaksin personal agenda. Who is travelling to Montenegro these days, if ever? Only Thaksin's cronies and cohorts.

No wonder the Yingluck government came out with a strong statement last week to support the US-Russia agreement to get rid of Syria's chemical weapons. Washington is pleased with Bangkok's first and strongest-ever endorsement of the UN in nearly 15 years. It was hoped the action would help secure Yingluck's invitation.

Fourth, since 2006, no Thai leaders have made an official visit to the US. It does not augur well for the 180-year-old friendship. A visit by her would be great to mark the occasion. That is still not sufficient to send an invitation. Over half the ASEAN leaders have visited the White House (Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Myanmar) to meet with US President Barack Obama. At the moment, the only reminder that the two countries are old buddies are photos of HM the King's visit to the US in the 1960s, which is the longest-lasting symbol of Thai-US ties. They adorn any US-Thai joint exhibition abroad and at home.

Fifth, truth be told, the Thai-US alliance is under-utilised. Almost all countries in the region have made adjustments following the policy of re-balancing in Asia announced in November 2011. The Thai military is still groping in the dark as to what exactly they want out of their stalled alliance. The long-standing two-plus-two framework comprising the joint meeting between officials of the Defence and Foreign ministries has not yet been carried out. Without any long-term strategic planning, the region's oldest ally would remain irrelevant. As it turns out, the much-heralded annual Thai-US military exercise, Cobra Gold, benefits the US and invited US partners more than the Thais, who have repeatedly failed to take advantage of this unique exercise for the past three decades.


-- The Nation 2013-09-23

[noitom]

Like any relationship, Thais squander and double cross.

[Pimay1]

After the display put on by Yingluck when Obama was here I expect Michelle has told Obama in no uncertain terms "don't even think about it, she ain't coming here"

[monkey4u]

Oh No

Dont tell me She who must be obeyed will be in parliment on 1 or 2 occassions in the near future

[jaidam]

This would be Yingluck's first ever trip to America in her life would it not?

[ChrisY1]

Quite a good article....highlights the issues that Thailand has with the US....almost indicating that the US doesn't trust the Thai political situation with YL being a proxy PM.....which is a crazy way to run a country and a shame that the PTP cannot see, or maybe more to the point, don't want acknowledge.

[jaltsc]

Sixth, she would be expected to speak English since she has a degree from an American University

[Mosha]

Pay back for the NASA weather study debacle?

[NongKhaiKid]

This may be a blessing in disguise as imagine the embarrassment for Thailand when the major news outlets in the US showed footage of YL being asked a question then giggling and legging it.

[ggold]

Third, Thailand still has two prime ministers. Policy-makers in Washington are perplexed and at times confused. Being the world's first prime minister by Skype living in exile.

This is the main reason, Oh and by the way he is a criminal, NOT a first minister, so maybe that is the real reason!

[dcutman]

Third, Thailand still has two prime ministers. Policy-makers in Washington are perplexed and at times confused. Being the world's first prime minister by Skype living in exile.

Have to admit, this could get a bit confusing. "Boss!... you spelled the first name wrong on the invitation, again".

[bigbamboo]

They've already got Sarah Palin.

[blackman]

i am thinking she dare'nt go

look what happened when her brother went...

[soi41]

If Myanmar and Vietnam are examples for how US are choosing their allies, with a lack of democracy and a very sad human rights record, maybe Thailand should consider themselves happy, not to be among "the chosen ones"??

Why do Thailand need the "approval" of the US in any context ?

[LuckyLew]

She does not want to go to USA .. she heard prada and hermes are over priced

[Baerboxer]

If Myanmar and Vietnam are examples for how US are choosing their allies, with a lack of democracy and a very sad human rights record, maybe Thailand should consider themselves happy, not to be among "the chosen ones"??

Why do Thailand need the "approval" of the US in any context ?

It has nothing to with approval at the country level. It is about trying to present an "invitation" to Washington as further evidence of the credibility of Yingluck and her regime. "See President Obama has invited her for serious and meaningful talks". Her PR machine would make the most of this. Could also been seen as tacit support for Thailand's desire to get a seat on the UN Security Council.

No doubt she could visit her old University and receive another honorary doctorate as a distinguished alumni too.

The American Obama administration see the reality of who really runs the country. They can't invite a criminal fugitive for an "official" visit (although they did give him a visa earlier). Pointless inviting his proxy.

[IMA_FARANG]

The U.S. doesn't have any "long term friends" they have "allies".

Allies are like disposable diapers .... nappies to you Brits..... you need them when your in a pile of s--t, but you get rid of them when they are of no longer of any use.

Right now Thailand is in that category .... not useful.

Or like the saying goes, "That's very nice darling, but exactly what have you done for me lately?"

Bottom line: right now the U.S. has enough problems on it's own, they don't need more "friends" to cause them problems.

Edited September 23, 2013 by IMA_FARANG

[upena]

A better question is why YS isn't going to the UN instead she is sending Surapong

[ratcatcher]

After the display put on by Yingluck when Obama was here I expect Michelle has told Obama in no uncertain terms "don't even think about it, she ain't coming here"

Michelle is a wise woman with sharp claws.

[LomSak27]

....

almost indicating that the US doesn't trust the Thai political situation with YL being a proxy PM.....which is a crazy way to run a country and a shame that the PTP cannot see, or maybe more to the point, don't want acknowledge

.

You are really trying a little too desperatly to tie this to PTP

Abhisit was given the same treatment, which is what countries do who are friends but nothing more, no matter if PTP or Dems are running the show - Oh, obviously they did not like Thaksins post 9/11 antics (he just needed to be polite, nothing more) that likely was matched with the dems and people in green having a coup when Thaksin was in New York - that made a lot of friends

[americaninbangkok]

Insightful article.

Mr. Smith went to Washington. At first, he was a bumbling fool. But by the end, he had learned to play the game and came out on top.

Has Yingluck learned to play the game? If not, she may want to steer clear of DC. Maybe use her visa-free access to Montenegro instead.

[aTomsLife]

Thailand's ever strengthening relationship with China is also a factor, I'm sure. Thailand is a small player on the world stage, regardless of how they see themselves. And Thailand thinking it's in a position to play China off the U.S. and vice versa to increase its own standing in the region and on the world stage is a joke.

Love it or hate it, the U.S.'s pivot to Asia is about increasing strength and influence in the region. The U.S. will be hesitant to enter into partnerships and share information with Thailand. The Thais have demonstrated time and again a tendency to change sides, and go with those who they see being the 'winner'. Surely, they'd secretly share intel with China if it led to vastly increasing the wealth and/or power of some Thai official or government party.

[Emdog]

You guys ever try to get a visa to USA for Thai woman??? enough said.

[NeverSure]

Thailand's ever strengthening relationship with China is also a factor, I'm sure. Thailand is a small player on the world stage, regardless of how they see themselves. And Thailand thinking it's in a position to play China off the U.S. and vice versa to increase its own standing in the region and on the world stage is a joke.

Love it or hate it, the U.S.'s pivot to Asia is about increasing strength and influence in the region. The U.S. will be hesitant to enter into partnerships and share information with Thailand. The Thais have demonstrated time and again a tendency to change sides, and go with those who they see being the 'winner'. Surely, they'd secretly share intel with China if it led to vastly increasing the wealth and/or power of some Thai official or government party.

This.

[travelman]

After reading the post. I can draw out an assumption that present Thai PM is merely a puppet.

[MarkCyr]

Excellent article, excellent analysis and very well written. Kudos to The Nation for better-than-usual content (albeit produced abroad)

[Mosha]

You guys ever try to get a visa to USA for Thai woman??? enough said.

Ad at the foot of my page, guarantees a successful spouse visa to the USA 555

[virtualtraveller]

Basically, it's a photo-op to launder the Sinawatra image, Washington knows that, and they'll want a lot in return, and they don't need Thaksin's money. So, what is Yingluck offering...?

[Mosha]

To answer the question the OP asks.

America doesn't want your rice, nor do they wish to talk about it.

[Scott]

Historically, the real power in Thailand has not been with the government. The US government takes greater stock in keeping good relations with the Thai military. Although the PM hasn't been given an official invitation to the US, I wonder how many generals have been to Washington and how many high ranking US military have been to Thailand in the past year?