Civil War in Thailand? Anyone else afraid?

[Ulic]

I'm going to guess you are American.

Personally I am about a 1000 times more scared every time I hop on my scooter

which I do every day than I am of civil war. I find the corruption in Thai politics

and the political unrest more interesting than scary. I look forward to seeing how

the corruption gets cleaned up and how many years/decades it takes.

[mrfaroukh]

Not scared as I am not in Thailand at the moment.

[ThomasBird67]

Wouldn't be the first time a bloody civil war has broken out in this part of the world. All the elements are in place for one. They cannot keep overturning the results of an election without there eventually being consequences. This scenario has played out many times in other countries in the past and almost never has a happen ending. Those of you just brushing it off and dismissing the current crisis as nothing are fools. Thailand is at a serious crossroads right now and you better wake up to whats going on around you. After 7 years I finally got my wife and kids out of Thailand and couldn't be happier I did.

[nakhonandy]

Everybody seems to be panicking.

In the end it will sort itself out.

Been there done it bought the tee shirt.

Thais will sort their own mess out, it is not for us to intervene, we are meerly guests.

[90dayz]

Wouldn't be the first time a bloody civil war has broken out in this part of the world. All the elements are in place for one. They cannot keep overturning the results of an election without there eventually being consequences. This scenario has played out many times in other countries in the past and almost never has a happen ending. Those of you just brushing it off and dismissing the current crisis as nothing are fools. Thailand is at a serious crossroads right now and you better wake up to whats going on around you. After 7 years I finally got my wife and kids out of Thailand and couldn't be happier I did.

This. Exactly what I've been trying to imply. Shit can't go on tug o' war forever. There has to be an end to this cul-de-sac.

Edited January 9, 2014 by 90dayz

[farang000999]

People are very much underestimating the possibility for chaos in Thailand. I recommend reading the things Andrew Sullivan has written on the subject and to read the Wikileaks available on the subject.

[Jip99]

Wouldn't be the first time a bloody civil war has broken out in this part of the world. All the elements are in place for one. They cannot keep overturning the results of an election without there eventually being consequences. This scenario has played out many times in other countries in the past and almost never has a happen ending. Those of you just brushing it off and dismissing the current crisis as nothing are fools. Thailand is at a serious crossroads right now and you better wake up to whats going on around you. After 7 years I finally got my wife and kids out of Thailand and couldn't be happier I did.

You must check under the bed every night !

I do not believe that there is enough passion (numerically or in strength of feeling) on opposing sides to create that spark and impetus for civil war.

Thais fighting Thais with the intensity we have seen in the Middle East etc, I don't think so.

[farang000999]

Civil war is not likely but mass rioting and violence in Bangkok, a ramped up 2010 is certainly a real possibility if there is a coup.

The more extreme possibilities is the military being split and picking sides because the opposition is appearing weaker and weaker every year. They have been trying to manage Thaksin for seven years now and he keeps winning every election. This might create temptations for those who know they will never be at the front of the line in an opposition controlled country to switch sides. You also don't know how many pockets Thaksin has been lining in the military.

[mmh8]

not worried about it, wil be interesting to watch certainly, would not put ones person in the middle of it mind

[beautifulthailand99]

No civil war. There will be a negotiated solution to this , probably before Monday. Gen Prayuth is very astute and certainly does not want to end his (fixed) term with the country in chaos and bloodshed. He will broker some kind of deal with the PM, election to proceed but with reform and another election within a year, Suthep will retire, a form of amnesty will be approved ( including Thaksin , Abhisit, military). New parties will be formed....with more national focus/policies. YL could become ambassador to UN. Someone else will be PM and try to get the basket case economy back together.

No civil war, no violence, .....I hope

I sincerely hope your panglossian view of the world pans out - but as they say hope for the best prepare for the worst.

[Boxclever]

They'll bicker on for years. But as far as central and northern Thais are concerned, they've got more in common than not. There's always a 'middle path'. There's probably more of a divide in the south, based on religion not politics.

One thing that will unite the south, and I mean all the south. Is their hatred of all things Shinawatra, especially the one "in exile".

Did you know the Thai word for South is Thaksin?

[Fullstop]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

[geriatrickid]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

Or those who have experienced civil conflict before.

Once you see the mangled bodies, the dead kids, the limbs, the blood and the destruction, you remember.

You also remember the events that led up to such carnage.

Talk to some of the Thais who have served in the south and you will quickly understand what "Thais" are capable of.

Humans can revert to a primitive state rather quickly.

[Konini]

Has anty one else got a windows 7 thatt has no spell checker. Sorry about the spelling.

Next time are in a text box - either to type an email or a reply here, doesn't matter which, right click with your mouse and go to Spell-checker options in Chrome, or in Firefox make sure Check Spelling has a tick next to it. Not sure about other browsers, but the option should be similar just different words.

[AYJAYDEE]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

Or those who have experienced civil conflict before.

Once you see the mangled bodies, the dead kids, the limbs, the blood and the destruction, you remember.

You also remember the events that led up to such carnage.

Talk to some of the Thais who have served in the south and you will quickly understand what "Thais" are capable of.

Humans can revert to a primitive state rather quickly.

just think back to what the khmers did to each other in the last decades. it can happen here easily

[Konini]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

Famous last words

Seriously though, several aeons ago I studied politics and can say quite confidently that sooner or later the whole country will blow. It may be 10 years or 20 years or 30 years away, but eventually the majority of people will say enough is enough when it comes to both the rampant corruption that goes on totally unchecked by seemingly everyone in authority (from the politicians leading by example right down to the teachers in government schools not going their job properly so that they can charge for private lessons) and also to being ruled by a relatively small group of almost feudal 'elite's.

I doubt many political scholars would disagree with that. It's just a matter of when the people decide that they've had enough. It appears unlikely that it will be in the near future, but we're dealing with human emotions so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it comes along a lot sooner than largely expected.

Not fear-mongering or taking sides, just the opinion of an interested outsider.

[ExpatJ]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

Famous last words

Seriously though, several aeons ago I studied politics and can say quite confidently that sooner or later the whole country will blow. It may be 10 years or 20 years or 30 years away, but eventually the majority of people will say enough is enough when it comes to both the rampant corruption that goes on totally unchecked by seemingly everyone in authority (from the politicians leading by example right down to the teachers in government schools not going their job properly so that they can charge for private lessons) and also to being ruled by a relatively small group of almost feudal 'elite's.

I doubt many political scholars would disagree with that. It's just a matter of when the people decide that they've had enough. It appears unlikely that it will be in the near future, but we're dealing with human emotions so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it comes along a lot sooner than largely expected.

Not fear-mongering or taking sides, just the opinion of an interested outsider.

completely disagree. EVERY country goes through periods of intense corruption as it develops, the vast majority clean up as they develop without 'blowing up' - in 10- 20 yrs time Thailand will have far better governance systems in place to prevent corruption than now so things will only improve.

If you want to see corruption on a far more ingrained scale- just cross the border of thailand to one of its neighbors.

[IDL]

I'm neither pro nor anti any of the parties; though I do have a loathing for a certain family, as they have too longer history of manipulating things/people. Whoever gets in, others wont like it. Be it the powerful people on one side or the other, they will still attempt to line their own pockets before considering the nation's well being.

I personally don't foresee a civil war, largely for the reasons mentioned about the culture being too lazy and not committed enough to fight for a cause till the end, but also because these people just need something to 'flap' about. Strangely, the ole nugget "Jai yen-yen", (that I've heard said to so many foreigners) only really applies for those few people/moments when everything is going swimmingly well. Otherwise, it's each for their own.

[Issangeorge]

Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election.

What a brillant idea you should have told her about it.

I know the present government was legally elected.

Can yiou explain how in a democracy 48% wins.

48% telling 52% what to do.

I await your explanation.

Thailand is a Parliamentary Democracy, if more than two parties are involved, very seldom does the winning party have more than 50% of the vote. In Canada's last election the winning party (Conservative) had less than 40% of the vote. In the US election in 1992 when three people were running Clinton won with 43% of the vote. In the US election in 2000 when again more than two people were running George W Bush won with 47.9% of the vote and Al Gore lost with 48.4% of the vote and the US say they are a democracy. In elections anything can happen.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ X using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Fullstop]

So it just the "Family" is it?. O.K, Lets put a Thai Visa A-Team together and take 'em out. Sorted.

[Berkshire]

So it just the "Family" is it?. O.K, Lets put a Thai Visa A-Team together and take 'em out. Sorted.

Funny. But I'm not sure how a herd of whinging/whining farangs is going to solve anything.

[Theoutsider]

Na. me dumb falang me no nothing.

[Theoutsider]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

Or those who have experienced civil conflict before.

Once you see the mangled bodies, the dead kids, the limbs, the blood and the destruction, you remember.

You also remember the events that led up to such carnage.

Talk to some of the Thais who have served in the south and you will quickly understand what "Thais" are capable of.

Humans can revert to a primitive state rather quickly.

Run to the jungle.

[thailiketoo]

So it just the "Family" is it?. O.K, Lets put a Thai Visa A-Team together and take 'em out. Sorted.

If you had five Thai Visa guys and gave them a bomb 4 would want to bomb America!

[driedmango]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

you don't gotta be afraid to want to get out of a civial war or total abandonment of law and the collapse of the food network and stuff dude, alot of people are little hotel rooms, taking money out at ATMS and don't really feel like being in the middle of this.. maybe your brave but I would take my risks on a little dingy in a storm in the ocean, maybe you wouldn't feel comforatable in that.

[thailiketoo]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

you don't gotta be afraid to want to get out of a civial war or total abandonment of law and the collapse of the food network and stuff dude, alot of people are little hotel rooms, taking money out at ATMS and don't really feel like being in the middle of this.. maybe your brave but I would take my risks on a little dingy in a storm in the ocean, maybe you wouldn't feel comforatable in that.

You do know that Thailand has made it through 4 wars without what you have written happening?

[farang000999]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

Famous last words

Seriously though, several aeons ago I studied politics and can say quite confidently that sooner or later the whole country will blow. It may be 10 years or 20 years or 30 years away, but eventually the majority of people will say enough is enough when it comes to both the rampant corruption that goes on totally unchecked by seemingly everyone in authority (from the politicians leading by example right down to the teachers in government schools not going their job properly so that they can charge for private lessons) and also to being ruled by a relatively small group of almost feudal 'elite's.

I doubt many political scholars would disagree with that. It's just a matter of when the people decide that they've had enough. It appears unlikely that it will be in the near future, but we're dealing with human emotions so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it comes along a lot sooner than largely expected.

Not fear-mongering or taking sides, just the opinion of an interested outsider.

Especially with the internet and being able to access media from outside of Thailand and see what the rest of the world is living like and wondering "Why do some people have 4million baht cars but I eat MAMA noodles 3x a day?...

And more specifically... that thing that the opposition rallies so furiously around... that idea... it won't last forever.

[thailiketoo]

The only people who'd be afraid are Thailand novices and Drama Queens.

Famous last words

Seriously though, several aeons ago I studied politics and can say quite confidently that sooner or later the whole country will blow. It may be 10 years or 20 years or 30 years away, but eventually the majority of people will say enough is enough when it comes to both the rampant corruption that goes on totally unchecked by seemingly everyone in authority (from the politicians leading by example right down to the teachers in government schools not going their job properly so that they can charge for private lessons) and also to being ruled by a relatively small group of almost feudal 'elite's.

I doubt many political scholars would disagree with that. It's just a matter of when the people decide that they've had enough. It appears unlikely that it will be in the near future, but we're dealing with human emotions so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it comes along a lot sooner than largely expected.

Not fear-mongering or taking sides, just the opinion of an interested outsider.

Especially with the internet and being able to access media from outside of Thailand and see what the rest of the world is living like and wondering "Why do some people have 4million baht cars but I eat MAMA noodles 3x a day?...

And more specifically... that thing that the opposition rallies so furiously around... that idea... it won't last forever.

I believe Thailand was exposed to Western style and standards when movies became a major source of entertainment around 1928.

[farang000999]

Sure, but they are much more educated now and can also examine the function and rules of government in other countries versus their own and are more willing to challenge the caste system than in 1928.

[Theoutsider]

To the previous post, have you not read or heard about the many surveys conducted across Thailand that document an average of upwards of 70 percent of Thais who believe various forms of corruption are OK so long as they benefit in some way?

That's just one example.

For those of us who work here, in certain professions, these types of realisations are quite important and telling.

Thats most not entirely.