For Pheu Thai, replacing Yingluck is not an option

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EDITORIAL
For Pheu Thai, replacing Yingluck is not an option
The Nation

House dissolution seems far more practical than making her resign

BANGKOK: -- If not Yingluck Shinawatra, then who? This is the question haunting the Pheu Thai Party right now. From being a heroine ushered onto centre stage in a highly romanticised manner, Yingluck has seen her popularity plunge as fast as it initially skyrocketed. The amnesty push, according to a host of non-partisan commentators, was a political blunder on a scale rarely seen. Her innocent and conciliatory image had shielded her from accusations she was her older brother's "puppet", but the scandalous rush to pass a bill that would absolve him (even albeit along with his political enemies) has stripped her of that immunity.

Polls indicate that few people believed Yingluck when she vowed to bury the amnesty agenda. Although some protesters have returned home, the dents to her image could turn out to be permanent. A juxtaposition of incidents has made it difficult to take her pledge seriously, meaning she's got a lot more to do to convince the growing number of doubters. The just-ended censure debate did not help that cause.

First came the leaked audio clip in which Thaksin discussed a legislative and executive plan to bring him home. Then an amnesty bill that had not originally included him was altered to do so. Last but not least, the Pheu Thai-dominated House of Representatives rammed the revamped bill through after just one day of debate - or opposition protest, to be exact. Through all of this, Yingluck tried to stay aloof. She began by insisting that amnesty had nothing to do with the government, only to take a dramatic and questionable U-turn by finally saying the government was "withdrawing" the bill.

If Yingluck is a "puppet", she has not done a good job in the role. If she is not a puppet, she is bad at proving so. Being Thaksin's sister has made her task difficult, of course. But that doesn't mean a bill advocated by her party and paving the way for him to return home a free man had to be rushed through Parliament at an hour when much of Thailand was sleeping.

While Yingluck's political "innocence" was winning hearts, attacks ricocheted off her without fail. Now, scepticism has eaten into her image and the previously harmless ridicule by rivals is taking a bigger and bigger toll. She is politically bruised and obviously anxious, prompting speculation that her brother might have to prop somebody else up in her place.

The question is who. The other influential Shinawatra sibling, Yaowapa Wongsawat, has always been mentioned as a replacement candidate, but switching from Yingluck to her would be a drastic change. Yaowapa is far more confrontational, and certainly doesn't command as much public adoration as the incumbent.

Will Somchai Wongsawat, Yaowapa's husband and a former prime minister, be brought back? Though he doesn't seem confrontational, his active involvement with the red shirts would certainly bring him more torrid times as premier. Suvarnabhumi Airport was taken over by protesters while he was at the country's helm in late 2008 - and that was at a time when Thai politics was not nearly as complex or super-heated.

Any other candidate deemed closely associated with the Shinawatras would face big trouble. Giving the highest executive post to an ally of Pheu Thai is also unthinkable. The late Samak Sundaravej was as far as Thaksin would go when it came to a non-Shinawatra at the country's helm. It's unimaginable for the prime minister's post to be handed on a plate to, say, Banharn Silapa-archa.

The national impasse seems to have brought Pheu Thai to a major impasse of its own. Can Yingluck continue? That's a big question, but the bigger ones are "If not House dissolution, then what?" and "If not her, then who?"


-- The Nation 2013-11-30

[Thait Spot]

They have painted themselves into a corner from which there is no escape

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[JRSoul]

".......prompting speculation that her brother might have to prop somebody else up in her place."

Is it so unimaginable that Thailand's politics might not include Thaksin? Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.

[Mampara]

I think that they don't want to replace her because she is never there, so they can do what they want, when they want, and how they want, without obtaining consent. hence the disgruntled public.

[chainarong]

For the PTP options are running out, these sort of home made political parties, set up for no more reason than the ego trip of the rich , control of the Country and it's people , seem to run a tried and true course, lose momentum ,then collapse, interest wanes with the voters, promises are believed in the beginning, then fade with the dreams of what might have been , the PTP have achieved very little in it's time in power, but have caused the country to be plunged into a political unstable void, that will take good leaders to recover from , the major obstacle to be resolved, lives in Dubai.

[ramrod711]

Will Somchai Wongsawat, Yaowapa's husband and a former prime minister, be brought back?

Terrific choice! the public are adamant that the Thaksin regime must go, so bring back the guy that said Thaksins return is long overdue. What a maroon.

[petedk]

I think that they don't want to replace her because she is never there, so they can do what they want, when they want, and how they want, without obtaining consent. hence the disgruntled public.

Suthep mentioned in his speech last night that she was planning to go to Russia today. I find that really hard to believe that a PM would leave the country in times of a crisis like this.

I mentioned that to my Thai friend and he told me that the Thai social media are saying that she is going away because something is about to happen and then she can deny having anything to do with it.

I take this with a pinch of salt but knowing Yingluck anything could happen.

[roamer]

".......prompting speculation that her brother might have to prop somebody else up in her place."

Is it so unimaginable that Thailand's politics might not include Thaksin? Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.

I don't think that many of us who have witnessed Thailand's political scene over many years would believe that the removal of the Thaksin family would result in:

" Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.".

Thailand is a deeply polarised society, Thaksin may well have been the catalyst for that but its naive in the extreme to think that the removal of the family will quell the unrest in the nation.

[petedk]

There are so many threads going on that it is difficult to know where to post, but I just read in the Bangkok Post an article about "some military officers who support the government have become alarmed" because troops from outside Bangkok have been ordered to move to military bases near Bangkok.

He doessn't know why they have been sent to Bangkok.

[h90]

Will Somchai Wongsawat, Yaowapa's husband and a former prime minister, be brought back?

Terrific choice! the public are adamant that the Thaksin regime must go, so bring back the guy that said Thaksins return is long overdue. What a maroon.

Why not Yaowapa?

[Sunderland]

There are so many threads going on that it is difficult to know where to post, but I just read in the Bangkok Post an article about "some military officers who support the government have become alarmed" because troops from outside Bangkok have been ordered to move to military bases near Bangkok.

He doessn't know why they have been sent to Bangkok.

Since troops seemed incapable of defending the gates of an army base against some whistling protesters yesterday, it is hardly surprising that some people in the military have no idea what is going on. Please remember that there are some 'generals' who have their lucrative businesses to take care of ahead of doing anything to protect the country or its people.

I wonder if any 'serious' political reform would also see a reduction in the number of people in elevated positions within the military and police services, who are appointed as generals or similar high rank, who have been accused by some people of making personal fortunes through corrupt business channels.

[JoeThePoster]

Will Somchai Wongsawat, Yaowapa's husband and a former prime minister, be brought back?

Terrific choice! the public are adamant that the Thaksin regime must go, so bring back the guy that said Thaksins return is long overdue. What a maroon.

Why not Yaowapa?

Thai silk industry would have to double their output overnight.

[rametindallas]

T\

Dr. Thaksin will be back in Thailand in fewer than 170 days if this government can avoid House dissolution during that time. Changing PM will not affect the 'blanket' amnesty bill. Without new elections, the protests will not have changed Dr. Thaksin's plans one iota and everyone would have protested for no gain. The ONLY way to kill the 'blanket' amnesty bill is to dissolve the current government and have new elections. Even if Dr. Thaksin gets to form the new government, that new government will have to introduce a new amnesty bill in the face of an aroused and awakened electorate. Dr. Thaksin would be back at square one.

Sent from my Transformer Prime TF201 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[wayned]

I think that they don't want to replace her because she is never there, so they can do what they want, when they want, and how they want, without obtaining consent. hence the disgruntled public.

Suthep mentioned in his speech last night that she was planning to go to Russia today. I find that really hard to believe that a PM would leave the country in times of a crisis like this.

I mentioned that to my Thai friend and he told me that the Thai social media are saying that she is going away because something is about to happen and then she can deny having anything to do with it.

I take this with a pinch of salt but knowing Yingluck anything could happen.

Taksin was out of the country during the coup in 2005!

[Thainy Tim]

If not Yingluck Shinawatra, then who?

Obvious really.

[ratcatcher]

Will Somchai Wongsawat, Yaowapa's husband and a former prime minister, be brought back?

Terrific choice! the public are adamant that the Thaksin regime must go, so bring back the guy that said Thaksins return is long overdue. What a maroon.

Why not Yaowapa?

Apparently Yingluck was grilled in Parliament last week with minimal outcome.

I imagine Yaowappa at some point would be 'flame broiled'.

[Bakseeda]

".......prompting speculation that her brother might have to prop somebody else up in her place."

Is it so unimaginable that Thailand's politics might not include Thaksin? Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.

I don't think that many of us who have witnessed Thailand's political scene over many years would believe that the removal of the Thaksin family would result in:

" Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.".

Thailand is a deeply polarised society, Thaksin may well have been the catalyst for that but its naive in the extreme to think that the removal of the family will quell the unrest in the nation.

But it sure would go a long way to help...!

[wayned]

Taksin was out of the country during the coup in 2005!

Correction:

2006, not 2005. Even though the keys have numbers on them my memory is getting so short that from the time I reach to hit the key until my finger hits it I sometimes forget which one I should push! oh well!

[Baerboxer]

T\

Dr. Thaksin will be back in Thailand in fewer than 170 days if this government can avoid House dissolution during that time. Changing PM will not affect the 'blanket' amnesty bill. Without new elections, the protests will not have changed Dr. Thaksin's plans one iota and everyone would have protested for no gain. The ONLY way to kill the 'blanket' amnesty bill is to dissolve the current government and have new elections. Even if Dr. Thaksin gets to form the new government, that new government will have to introduce a new amnesty bill in the face of an aroused and awakened electorate. Dr. Thaksin would be back at square one.

Sent from my Transformer Prime TF201 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I think you're right. Thaksin will not allow his sister to resign either of her positions or dissolve the house and call an election. He needs the amnesty bill rammed through as it exists. He must now gamble that the protesters run out of steam and are not so impassioned to act all over again when Yingluck lies once more and sends the bill for Royal assent once the time is up. Ram the Senate and 2.2 trillion loans through and he's back, clean slate, with much reduced checks and balances and a massive new war chest, to do with as he pleases. Then he will start to get everything ready for his next major move, which can only happen when other events beyond his control happen. But, he's working dammed hard to make sure he's ready for when that does occur.

KY can only do as she's told. Offers of talks, negotiations, requests to stop protesting are all simply to buy time until the amnesty bill can be made live again. Thaksin has no intentions of losing - the prize is much too big,

[tonneke breda]

No worries, some friends of the boss have requested to beheaded by the end of this year, so a few Thaksin aides left over

[EyesWideOpen]

Will Somchai Wongsawat, Yaowapa's husband and a former prime minister, be brought back?

Terrific choice! the public are adamant that the Thaksin regime must go, so bring back the guy that said Thaksins return is long overdue. What a maroon.

Why not Yaowapa?

What a great idea, Thaksin clone number 4 or 5 ? Am losing track now....... So a tougher non shopping

version of Yingluck will solve all the problems?

[Crushdepth]

Time to wheel the fat sister out, let's get that one over with quickly. Then we can try the little creep.

[blumenkraft]

Yeah - you go girlfriend.

[JRSoul]

".......prompting speculation that her brother might have to prop somebody else up in her place."

Is it so unimaginable that Thailand's politics might not include Thaksin? Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.

I don't think that many of us who have witnessed Thailand's political scene over many years would believe that the removal of the Thaksin family would result in:

" Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.".

Thailand is a deeply polarised society, Thaksin may well have been the catalyst for that but its naive in the extreme to think that the removal of the family will quell the unrest in the nation.

You misuse the term "catalyst". A catalyst enables a reaction without taking part in it. Thaksin, by paying propagandists to spread misinformation and then financing the red movement, is part and parcel of Thailand's problems. Without his use of the reds for his own gratification and glorification, provoking false differences, the polarisation would not exist, anywhere near its current extent.

Edited November 30, 2013 by JRSoul

[tingtongteesood]

The troops are being positioned ready for a crackdown. Since aa great many of the anti government protestors live in and close to Bangkok, on that day, everyone should just go home. As soon as the army leave, back to the streets, and repeat as necessary....

[Crushdepth]

Stupid article, you could replace her with an Elmo doll and some batteries. 'I am unaware of that', 'I wasn't there', 'the government is not responsible' and 'I am not a puppet'.

[virtualtraveller]

If this is what people spontaneously sign up to in the streets of Bangkok (not bussed in or paid) just from the amnesty bill, imagine if Thaksin set food in Thailand. They would be back on the streets and some! No, no, this has been a game changer for the Shinawatras, they may manage to survive for now but they are mortally wounded, they won't get an absolute majority at the next election, they likely won't get their 2 trillion and they won't regain the popularity she enjoyed when she was new. It's difficult to say where this will all end up but Thaksin's dream of coming home on his terms is dead. Yingluck has proved to be a disaster as Thaksin's clone and I"m wondering how much longer Peua Thai MPs are going to put up with this ridiculous suicidal arrangement.

[Yunla]

I think you would have to search far and wide to find somebody to replace Yingluck.

Not everybody has the talent to play 'Tetris' while being filmed during sombre VIP state funerals. It takes real skill to pull that off.

Also it is a special gift for an adult to be able to sit in a photo-OP classroom of six-year olds, and to just blend in seamlessly with the other happy simple childish grins.

Also, Autocues don't just read themselves, you know. Not everyone can do it with the right mix of glitzy bling and goofy charm.

I'm gonna miss you Yingluck. I will send you a fruit-basket.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Yunla

[MikeOboe57]

Stupid article, you could replace her with an Elmo doll and some batteries. 'I am unaware of that', 'I wasn't there', 'the government is not responsible' and 'I am not a puppet'.

...and of course "Ka".

[roamer]

".......prompting speculation that her brother might have to prop somebody else up in her place."

Is it so unimaginable that Thailand's politics might not include Thaksin? Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.

I don't think that many of us who have witnessed Thailand's political scene over many years would believe that the removal of the Thaksin family would result in:

" Most of the country's problems could be solved in a heartbeat.".

Thailand is a deeply polarised society, Thaksin may well have been the catalyst for that but its naive in the extreme to think that the removal of the family will quell the unrest in the nation.

You misuse the term "catalyst". A catalyst enables a reaction without taking part in it. Thaksin, by paying propagandists to spread misinformation and then financing the red movement, is part and parcel of Thailand's problems. Without his use of the reds for his own gratification and glorification, provoking false differences, the polarisation would not exist, anywhere near its current extent.

I used the tern "catalyst" correctly. A catalyst participates in a reaction without being changed by it.