Where is the baht going in the next few months?

[DavidMavec]

The baht is now at 44.1 to the EUR, from around 37 within the past six months. I know this is difficult to predict, but could anyone give me an educated idea of where the baht is going (especially to the EUR) in the next few months?

Thanks.

[davejones]

It's always gone up and down, so I fully expect this trend to continue forever.

[surangw]

the bath is currently circuling the drain

[DavidMavec]

the bath is currently circuling the drain

Good time to transfer money in?

Anyone who actually knows about this stuff is welcome to reply :-).

Thanks!

[Lefty]

Just flip a coin, that will be as accurate as any reply.

Lefty

[Skint]

I would do it this week, no reason other than it was better than last week.

[SpokaneAl]

I suppose one could argue that the political issues have, in part, caused the baht to drop which means that if those same issues truly are beginning to dissipate, then the baht could rise.

However this is much like making prognostications on the various stock markets - every now and then some one will get it right and live off that glory for as long as possible.

I agree with the other poster - if you like that the exchange rate has improved from a few weeks ago, why wait. Again like the markets, it is a bit of a fools game to think that we can time the highs and lows perfectly.

[smooth expat]

If interest rates keep going up in the US as they are expected to do, the Baht will definitely fall. If you look at the charts, the Baht is following interest rates closely.

[crazykopite]

In my dreams down the plug hole but that will not be allowed to happen would be very happy to see it reach 60 to the pound sterling but would not complain at 55 problem is it fluctuates daily even hourly but hey it is nice to dream.

[Copa]

We have a GB£ account with the bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri) and we transfer money from the UK in GB£ every few months. NatWest charge £22 irrespective of the amount.

When we see the exchange rate going up (you can check this online and it is the T/T telegraphic transfer rate that applies to this account), we withdraw money.

[janpharma]

Due to political implications the baht went down quickly; taken in order too the weak economy results and a lack of tourists visiting Thailand, the baht will probably not recover that soon. Will it go down more? As the dollar still is going down, the baht might follow. However, if you could change now you will gain upto 15% compared to 2 years ago.

[GMajor]

Just my 2 cents but I think that looking at the overall trend from websites like XE.com might give a good indication of your risk tolerance.

THB to EUR.tiff

[Asiantravel]

When I read these kinds of headlines It's a bit worrying.

" Charnvit Kasetsri, a former rector at Thammasat, said Thailand was facing anarchy. "

Because in another country which is going through the same political crisis right now as here, their currency is looking grim

http://www.businessinsider.com/risk-of-ukraine-currency-crisis-2013-12

[Svadhistana]

Just flip a coin, that will be as accurate as any reply.

Lefty

People used flipping a coin to take decision sooner or later lost all their coins.

[lounger]

2 quick answers.

1) Certain major events (!) would send the baht down. The problem here is timing.

2) Medium term in the absence of (1) I would guess the baht will strengthen as a consequence of global money printing and Thailand's dev economy natural strength. Say in a few months...

Copa had good strategy for reducing bank charges. Transfer £ into Thailand thereby saving the 2% translation ( exchange ) fee currently charged by Uk banks

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Leung Falang]

Hot money coming in and out of Thai stock market provide lots of ups and downs short term as does the political situation, but over the long haul, the THB (Thai Baht) has been strengthening until April of this year. The Thai stock market tripled over the last 4 1/2 years but fell like a rock in May of this year. Likely the market going down dropped the Baht due to money leaving the country.

With a poor political situation driving the economy down, seems like this chart continues, ie, weaker baht. Good for those of us whose income is in $ as long as we don't have property to sell.

Edited December 11, 2013 by Leung Falang

[superdome]

Thai baht WILL go through the floor....as it did in 1997

[PeterSmiles]

the bath is currently circuling the drain

Good time to transfer money in?

Anyone who actually knows about this stuff is welcome to reply :-).

Thanks!

I offer crystal ball readings at 5 Euro each . Please hurry before the price goes up.

[Pinot]

I've been bringing in $'s and putting it in Thai banks at 3.5%. At 32 baht to the $, I think it's a good investment.

[PeterSmiles]

When I read these kinds of headlines It's a bit worrying.

" Charnvit Kasetsri, a former rector at Thammasat, said Thailand was facing anarchy. "

Because in another country which is going through the same political crisis right now as here, their currency is looking grim

http://www.businessinsider.com/risk-of-ukraine-currency-crisis-2013-12

Just my 2 cents but I think that looking at the overall trend from websites like XE.com might give a good indication of your risk tolerance.

THB to EUR.tiff

http://forecasts.org/exchange-rate/thai-baht-exchange-rate.htm

So according to that forcast the US dollar currently trades at 62 Baht ?

[al007]

In july 2004 one got around 76 batt for one pound, by april 2013 it had changed to only 42, the thai stock market has dropped some 17% plus this year

When the rate recovered to 50 I bought enough batt for six months and at 51 I bought again for six months, I was happy at the time with those deals and continue to feel the same

Whilst this political uncertainty continues as well as the countries increased borrowing the chances are we will see the rate to the major currencies move in our favor

Many international investors have been cashing out of batt investments which has further hurt the exchange rate, if I were going to need batt in the next year I would maybe buy now, but otherwise wait

The wworld credit rating companies are watching thailand very carefully

Of course one could always go to gold, safe haven or not, then do we stay in dollars, sterling or swiss francs

Al007

[sawadee1947]

hmmmh, it's not easy to answer concerning the EURO. All depends on economy in Europe, Germany in particular, and the political development in Thailand which is uncertain.

The economy in Europe is increasing, so I would give the Baht not such a big chance to recover. Around 41-42 Baht I would expect all year round, at last up to March. after elections. If Yingluck will win, what might happen, the Baht will be weak, because brainless people like Suthep will not give up and hold Thailand in unstability.

[elliottm]

the bath is currently circuling the drain

Good time to transfer money in?

Anyone who actually knows about this stuff is welcome to reply :-).

Thanks!

Why not? per above replies there is no right or wrong answer (and anyone that could predict would be a market-beating billionaire). Purely based on exchange movements I am worth 1m baht more since March/April.

The flip side is it will be worth less should you need to transfer back to your home country while it's down and you can search threads on here where constraints have been encountered transferring out of the Kingdom.

I locked in 300k at 52 for GBP last week (transfer rate, no charges (HiFX) - Bkk Bk fees remove the gain on their TT rate at 300-500k). If it weakens further I may transfer again although at such amounts I'm fiddling at the margins - I prefer not to have too many eggs in the same basket, what about when the dream ends ?

Edited December 11, 2013 by elliottm

[Suradit69]

In my dreams down the plug hole but that will not be allowed to happen would be very happy to see it reach 60 to the pound sterling but would not complain at 55 problem is it fluctuates daily even hourly but hey it is nice to dream.

"...but that will not be allowed to happen..."

Who exactly would "not allow" it?

Any country that tries to manipulate its own currency exchange rate, short of pegging it to some other currency, rarely manages to accomplish much beyond the very short term. There are too many factors involved domestically and internationally for Thailand to "not allow" a rise or fall in the baht using traditional measures like interest rates or investment controls.

"In my dreams down the plug hole ..."

You might end up with more baht in your hand, but a prolonged large drop in the baht would soon mean most anything you buy would quickly cost more baht.

Edited December 11, 2013 by Suradit69

[Berkshire]

While I understand why the OP would ask such a question--as we would all love to know--it's still hysterical. Surely the OP knows how to take a wild guess. Because his guess has the same probability of being accurate as any other guesses on here.

[chiang mai]

Thai baht WILL go through the floor....as it did in 1997

[Jasun]

Political unrest doesn't equal a weaker baht. Take a look at what happened in 2006-2007 following the coup and in the lead up to the election. Quite the opposite.

[chiang mai]

In fact, BOT does appear to be spending around USD 1 bill of their foreign reserves on something, perhaps on currency stabilization.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

[Suradit69]

In fact, BOT does appear to be spending around USD 1 bill of their foreign reserves on something, perhaps on currency stabilization.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

"...perhaps on currency stabilization."

Don't see anything there to support that conclusion. Usually if a central bank enters the currency market they'll advertise the fact because the publicity is a psychological benefit. No point in doing it secretly.

Edited December 11, 2013 by Suradit69

[A1Str8]

Nobody knows.