Time Is Running Out for Thailand's Embattled Government
By Bruce Einhorn

(Bloomberg) Will they or won’t they? Thais are waiting to hear whether elections scheduled for Feb. 2 will take place as planned. Embattled Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra wants them to take place; the country’s Election Commission wants a postponement because of widespread opposition from critics of Yingluck and her exiled brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The country’s Constitutional Court ruled Jan. 24 that the election can be delayed and that both the prime minister and the Election Commission have the power and responsibility to set a new date “if holding the election as scheduled will create serious damage to the country,”

Regardless of whether the election takes place in February or later, chances are Yingluck’s days as prime minister are numbered. “The current political deadlock should eventually lead to the fall of this government,” Pimpaka Nichgaroon, head of research in Bangkok for Thanachart Securities, wrote in a report published Wednesday.

While the crisis may drag on for a few more weeks, Pimpaka expects a resolution by the end of March. “We assign the highest probability to military intervention followed by court cases in bringing down the government and a slim chance of the caretaker administration returning as a functional government in the next election.”

Full story: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-24/time-is-running-out-for-thailands-embattled-government

-- BloombergBusinessweek 2014-01-25

Pimpaka Nichgaroon

Does she have an insight into the army? Itsa safe bet I guess that there will be a coup.

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

When the music sops the person holding the parcel will have to do a very un-Thai thing, make a decision. In this case there are two holding the parcel, YL and the EC.

The Constitutional Court tossed this hot issue back by saying the election could be postponed it did not say it has to be / must be / even should be.

YL will want it to go ahead and the EC does not so what next and who will prevail ? I honestly can't see the two sides reaching a reasonable accommodation, I'm sure the election will go ahead and prove nothing.

It just doesn't look good.

When the music sops the person holding the parcel will have to do a very un-Thai thing, make a decision. In this case there are two holding the parcel, YL and the EC.

The Constitutional Court tossed this hot issue back by saying the election could be postponed it did not say it has to be / must be / even should be.

YL will want it to go ahead and the EC does not so what next and who will prevail ? I honestly can't see the two sides reaching a reasonable accommodation, I'm sure the election will go ahead and prove nothing.

It just doesn't look good.

If anything the dems might get accused of sabotaging democracy.

What's in a name huh. The democrats who don't play democracy.

When the music sops the person holding the parcel will have to do a very un-Thai thing, make a decision. In this case there are two holding the parcel, YL and the EC.

The Constitutional Court tossed this hot issue back by saying the election could be postponed it did not say it has to be / must be / even should be.

YL will want it to go ahead and the EC does not so what next and who will prevail ? I honestly can't see the two sides reaching a reasonable accommodation, I'm sure the election will go ahead and prove nothing.

It just doesn't look good.

If anything the dems might get accused of sabotaging democracy.

What's in a name huh. The democrats who don't play democracy.

Mai Khao Jai, not same countlee me.

I've always been suspicious of any party, country etc that uses words like democrat, democratic or peoples' etc. For example Lao PDR, Peoples Republic of China, North Korea and various countries in Africa and elsewhere. They couldn't be more opposite than the name implies.

"Sorry" for a somewhat "jadded" outlook, but what will it really matter. Does anyone really expect Thailand to change much? I don't. This "way" corruption/me me me/lack of responsibility is ingrained in the current culture. Q. Can cultures change? A. Sure. But will this one? Hope so, but doubt it.

#slashWristsNow. You buggers are depressing!

"Sorry" for a somewhat "jadded" outlook, but what will it really matter. Does anyone really expect Thailand to change much? I don't. This "way" corruption/me me me/lack of responsibility is ingrained in the current culture. Q. Can cultures change? A. Sure. But will this one? Hope so, but doubt it.

I'm afraid you are right and it's not helped by a national defeatist attitude.

A decade agoIi had a lovely, well educated GF from a rural area who would happily discuss issues with me that she would think twice about raising in front of her family.

Acknowledging faults here she would always say that's how it is and nothing will change it. If I questioned that she slipped into the mode that the elite want, people like her are ' little ' people who cannot change anything because they couldn't, wouldn't or wouldn't be allowed to. One of her favourite lines was " the government does not want the people to be educated ".

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

Whatever the opinion of this Pimpaka Nichgaroon, head of research in Bangkok for Thanachart Securities is, he obviously has not consulted the electoral majority...or who will emerge as such after this election...But then one must put this political prognosticator in context...The PAD-Dem's are always trying to project their agenda outside themselves...As if coming from sources outside their own has more meaning. This applies to their penchant for using ostensibly public opinion Polls, referencing any groups they organize as pretend extensive 'networks', and applying monikers seemingly unassociated with themselves.....The UDD/RS disparagingly refer to them as "different groups-same faces'.....Giving airtime to this hopeful PAD-Dem sympathizer Pimpaka and his wishful thinking, doesn't fool anyone and has no more meaning than any other PAD-Dem pontificator....Yingluck has such powerful electoral support that any attempt to dislodge her would be treated as a quasi-coup....Especially after a resounding electoral victory, should that occur. If PAD-Dem's think they can fiddle with the majority electorate like that, they don't appreciate the extent to which these people have been politicized.

There will be an election in the next few months. Elements of PTP will win it, probably in coalition/unity with some of the more rational people from other parties. Then rebuilding will start and growth will return.

There will be an election in the next few months. Elements of PTP will win it, probably in coalition/unity with some of the more rational people from other parties. Then rebuilding will start and growth will return.

I hope you are right, especially about the rational part.

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

Excellent Post, all summed up in one.

The only way I can see more of a cure than a band-aid is for there to be charter amendments requiring a super-majority for amendments to the charter, with a similar requirement for large expenses and other issues both sides are perpetuating.

Compromise and shared power are not in the vocabulary at present.

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

No, they don't want a gov't that isn't corrupt. It is well understood that the country and culture accepts corruption. It's a matter of who gets to be corrupt. Those lower down on the social scale can only hope to be higher up and get their slice of the spoils. Years ago, people accepted their place in life and their yearning for the benefits would happen in another life, maybe.

Thailand is the home of the original Trickle Down theory of economics. If I vote for the person who can steal the most, it will trickle down to me.

Time Is Running Out for Thailand's Embattled Government

WRONG, time is just working in favor of Thaksin. No matter the result, Thaksin will get his way somehow and Suthep and co. are running deeper and deeper into Thaksin's trap.

In the end Thaksin wins, Pheu Thai acts, Yingluck can finally travel to Hawaii,... and the show and corruption business as usual will go on... wanna bet???

What bugs me about Suthep's protest movement is that the rice scheme is clearly in difficulty, the fuel subsidies are running at impossible levels and sooner or later the populist policies look doomed to fail.

Rice farmers are angry with the government.

Even the weather has turned cold.

Why isn't the Democrat party prepared to wait it out until the next scheduled election date? Do they fear that even with so much going against PPP/TRT/PT they still can't win an election democratically?

Frankly if I were eligible to vote I still wouldn't bother with any of this lot. Perhaps that is why votes are so easy to buy.

When the music sops the person holding the parcel will have to do a very un-Thai thing, make a decision. In this case there are two holding the parcel, YL and the EC.

The Constitutional Court tossed this hot issue back by saying the election could be postponed it did not say it has to be / must be / even should be.

YL will want it to go ahead and the EC does not so what next and who will prevail ? I honestly can't see the two sides reaching a reasonable accommodation, I'm sure the election will go ahead and prove nothing.

It just doesn't look good.

If anything the dems might get accused of sabotaging democracy.

What's in a name huh. The democrats who don't play democracy.

Mai Khao Jai, not same countlee me.

I've always been suspicious of any party, country etc that uses words like democrat, democratic or peoples' etc. For example Lao PDR, Peoples Republic of China, North Korea and various countries in Africa and elsewhere. They couldn't be more opposite than the name implies.

Phua Thai

Thai rak Thai

Mmmmmmm.

I think not

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

If it wasn't Yingluck (or another Shin relative) the election would be taking place without problems.

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

And many people want their right to protest to be respected.

And many people know that a return of the shin machine and the 'get very rich very quickly club' with more rice scam etc., and with more serious raping of the common wealth of all Thai people, will just cause a continuation of the whole problem with more protests and possibly more deaths, etc.

And many people know that none of these problems will stop until there is serious reform, not managed / controlled by the shin machine, then an election but of course within a reasonable time

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

No, they don't want a gov't that isn't corrupt. It is well understood that the country and culture accepts corruption. It's a matter of who gets to be corrupt. Those lower down on the social scale can only hope to be higher up and get their slice of the spoils. Years ago, people accepted their place in life and their yearning for the benefits would happen in another life, maybe.

Thailand is the home of the original Trickle Down theory of economics. If I vote for the person who can steal the most, it will trickle down to me.

I disagree. I think that those corruption surveys that they carried out a couple of year ago, and a couple of years before that, would get very different results if they were repeated today.

Almost 50% of the population back then, said that they accepted corruption as long as they were not directly affected. Well, what is now clear, is that so many people are being directly affected, none more so than the likes of the rice/rubber farmers, but also anyone who is affected by the sharp increases in the CPI, so that includes anyone who needs to buy bread, milk, eggs, vegetables, etc.

I believe that the Thai nation has become much more interested and involved in politics as a direct result of the corruption of the current (now caretaker) government, and they wish to see an end to such deep-rooted corruption, especially as their household debt levels have risen sharply, despite TS assuring them that they would "become rich" under his leadership.

I envisage the emergence of a new party which will shun the remnants of the PTP, whose influence in Thai politics is clearly set to rapidly wane. The influence of the outspoken red shirts who have attempted to stir up support for the Shin government will also fade, as will their unilateral declarations of "red villages" where no-one is permitted to speak out against their doctrine.

As an aside, many of these red shirt will, of course, need to run and hide, essentially because once the dust has settled, reforms have been put in place, and free and fair elections have taken place, I can imagine many of the crimes that were to have been whitewashed by the Amnesty Bill being revisited, including the burning of Bangkok in 2010.

I truly hope that this new party can recognise the need to align itself with the less extreme factions of other parties - there are a lot of them out there - and that will mean there is no need for them to even consider the PTP. The PTP has not only reneged on its promises to farmers, etc., but also to its coalition partners, so it will be a simple matter to draw them away from involvement with those who have lied to them before, and have them join forces (in a political sense) against them.

I really do think that the PTP is at the end of its days, and if YL were to recognise this, she would completely ignore the string-pulling that her brother continues to engage in, and do what she actually wants to do, which is to resign...!

There seems no way out for the people of Thailand. There may be a winner and/or a loser, but it won't be for the benefit of the Thai people. Whoever ends up in the PM post by either election or appointment will inherit a real mess.

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Such a powerful rebuttal "of all points" of the argument on your part.

Apart from name calling, your suggestion that everything that anyone (with a different perspective to yours) has to say is "weak and false" and "no-one is buying it", what do you actually have to offer to the discussion that might be described as constructive?

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

If it wasn't Yingluck (or another Shin relative) the election would be taking place without problems.

It won't. Samak Sundaravet was not relative but longterm thai politican. It will never stop Democrats and their angry mob allies.

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Hey moonao, your wrong, every word bluespunk wrote is obvious and correct.

Why is it so difficult to see that a tree is a tree?

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Such a powerful rebuttal "of all points" of the argument on your part.

Thanks

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Hey moonao, your wrong, every word bluespunk wrote is obvious and correct.

Why is it so difficult to see that a tree is a tree?

*sigh*... you really need to try harder. that was much too obvious.

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Whatever suthep wants (I assume that's who you refer to when you talk of power grabs) the fact is my points are neither false nor weak.

The people protesting have had enough of PT's corrupt practices. You might not like it, not want to admit to it, refuse to see it but the fact is PT by their actions have caused this mess.

Personally I think the protests should have ended when the election was called, I don't like suthep, but I can see why the protestors are angry, PT have been a disaster for the rice industry and generally a malaise for Thailand. They need to change their ways if they are not to drag Thailand further down into economic failure.