Time is running out for Thailand's embattled government

[scorecard]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

If it wasn't Yingluck (or another Shin relative) the election would be taking place without problems.

It won't. Samak Sundaravet was not relative but longterm thai politican. It will never stop Democrats and their angry mob allies.

Well yes that was the pimple on the shin pumpkin and a poor choice by the dear leader. He should known that samak would be

his own man, and quickly was his own man, ignoring the 'line', highly corrupt (fire engines comes to mind) and ignoring the law.

Another poor decision by the paymaster, but note, somchai (his BIL) then came into the puppet seat.

[chrisrazz]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

No, they don't want a gov't that isn't corrupt. It is well understood that the country and culture accepts corruption. It's a matter of who gets to be corrupt. Those lower down on the social scale can only hope to be higher up and get their slice of the spoils. Years ago, people accepted their place in life and their yearning for the benefits would happen in another life, maybe.

Thailand is the home of the original Trickle Down theory of economics. If I vote for the person who can steal the most, it will trickle down to me.

I disagree. I think that those corruption surveys that they carried out a couple of year ago, and a couple of years before that, would get very different results if they were repeated today.

Almost 50% of the population back then, said that they accepted corruption as long as they were not directly affected. Well, what is now clear, is that so many people are being directly affected, none more so than the likes of the rice/rubber farmers, but also anyone who is affected by the sharp increases in the CPI, so that includes anyone who needs to buy bread, milk, eggs, vegetables, etc.

I believe that the Thai nation has become much more interested and involved in politics as a direct result of the corruption of the current (now caretaker) government, and they wish to see an end to such deep-rooted corruption, especially as their household debt levels have risen sharply, despite TS assuring them that they would "become rich" under his leadership.

I envisage the emergence of a new party which will shun the remnants of the PTP, whose influence in Thai politics is clearly set to rapidly wane. The influence of the outspoken red shirts who have attempted to stir up support for the Shin government will also fade, as will their unilateral declarations of "red villages" where no-one is permitted to speak out against their doctrine.

As an aside, many of these red shirt will, of course, need to run and hide, essentially because once the dust has settled, reforms have been put in place, and free and fair elections have taken place, I can imagine many of the crimes that were to have been whitewashed by the Amnesty Bill being revisited, including the burning of Bangkok in 2010.

I truly hope that this new party can recognise the need to align itself with the less extreme factions of other parties - there are a lot of them out there - and that will mean there is no need for them to even consider the PTP. The PTP has not only reneged on its promises to farmers, etc., but also to its coalition partners, so it will be a simple matter to draw them away from involvement with those who have lied to them before, and have them join forces (in a political sense) against them.

I really do think that the PTP is at the end of its days, and if YL were to recognise this, she would completely ignore the string-pulling that her brother continues to engage in, and do what she actually wants to do, which is to resign...!

I think you're talking about the wrong party. The Dems days are numbered, this current crisis truly demonstrates what they are about. The people are not as stupid as they arrogantly claim. A new party needs to emerge without the elitist baggage the Dems carry, and, without the cronyism and corruption of the PTP/Thaksin. This will be the way to defeat Thaksin/Shin political dominance. A coup now, in whatever form, will only repeat the cycle, or even worse, erupt into a nationwide violent conflict.

[sms747]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Unfortunately too many just want their votes to be paid for, that's part of the problem. Most say the are against corruption but just cannot say no to it when they are getting something

[khunsiam]

Whatever the opinion of this Pimpaka Nichgaroon, head of research in Bangkok for Thanachart Securities is, he obviously has not consulted the electoral majority...or who will emerge as such after this election...But then one must put this political prognosticator in context...The PAD-Dem's are always trying to project their agenda outside themselves...As if coming from sources outside their own has more meaning. This applies to their penchant for using ostensibly public opinion Polls, referencing any groups they organize as pretend extensive 'networks', and applying monikers seemingly unassociated with themselves.....The UDD/RS disparagingly refer to them as "different groups-same faces'.....Giving airtime to this hopeful PAD-Dem sympathizer Pimpaka and his wishful thinking, doesn't fool anyone and has no more meaning than any other PAD-Dem pontificator....Yingluck has such powerful electoral support that any attempt to dislodge her would be treated as a quasi-coup....Especially after a resounding electoral victory, should that occur. If PAD-Dem's think they can fiddle with the majority electorate like that, they don't appreciate the extent to which these people have been politicized.

so true! "Illusory division" was part of the strategy the PAD-Dem's planned about 8 months ago, the people who told me about the upcoming "Occupy"-inspired uprising never mentioned Suthep at that time, I

guess he wasn't even in the picture as "leader" yet.

[tominbkk]

Yingluck two days ago: "There is absolutely no legal way we can postpone the election. It must go through and there is no way to postpone it".

Yingluck this morning: "We will postpone the election if you stop protesting and revealing how corrupt PTP is. Please please promise to do this and we will postpone the election!"

Gotta love her ability to lie so boldly!

[ChrisY1]

Time Is Running Out for Thailand's Embattled Government

WRONG, time is just working in favor of Thaksin. No matter the result, Thaksin will get his way somehow and Suthep and co. are running deeper and deeper into Thaksin's trap.

In the end Thaksin wins, Pheu Thai acts, Yingluck can finally travel to Hawaii,... and the show and corruption business as usual will go on... wanna bet???

With the influence that Thaksin holds over the government and many of the senate members....I think you're right.

There's too much for him to lose with failure.....it would mean another round of people buying....not that it would bother him, but there may be less Shins in the next parliament.....that would affect his influence.

[Mr Yim]

Assuming Suthep were to get his way, what do you think would happen next?

Do you think the people from the North and Isaan will embrace the changes that will be made in favour of Sutheps buddies.

I very much doubt whether Suthep and his backers have thought about the consequences and how they would deal with them, other than passing the buck to the military.

Regarding the disquiet of the rice farmers, I believe many blame the protestors in Bangkok for the non payment.

[khunsiam]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Hey moonao, your wrong, every word bluespunk wrote is obvious and correct.

Why is it so difficult to see that a tree is a tree?

it's not a real tree, it's a fata morgana of a tree.

[zydeco]

There will be an election in the next few months. Elements of PTP will win it, probably in coalition/unity with some of the more rational people from other parties. Then rebuilding will start and growth will return.

I hope you are right, especially about the rational part.

Nobody would object to this development, were it actually possible. But as long as the rice policy remains in place, the term "rational" as applied to PTP or its offshoots will be entirely elusive. Same for all the mulit-trillion baht "infrastructure" projects, which, without fully transparent oversight, will be the largest hog feeding trough in SE Asian history. Somebody actually needs to come out and tell the truths about these boondoggles. Oversight? Rationality? Efficiency? Public Good? Ever going to happen?

[GeorgeO]

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Such a powerful rebuttal "of all points" of the argument on your part.

Thanks

Ahh, once again, very clever. I see what you did there .. you quoted half of my response in an attempt to provide support for your argument...whilst ignoring the remainder of my response which showed that you have nothing to offer on the subject!!

So I'm guessing you still have nothing constructive to say on the matter...?!

[love1012]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

You mean the bosses in the red shirt villages will again buy and threaten and bully the vote for Thaksin? I think the demonstrators on the streets are the only ones that want their vote respected. .....and they rightly refuse to cast it untill it has more options than to be given to a wanted criminal!!

[iancnx]

There will be an election in the next few months. Elements of PTP will win it, probably in coalition/unity with some of the more rational people from other parties. Then rebuilding will start and growth will return.

I really have to admire your optimism. I am not sure their are any elements of the PTP that have the credentials to run the country; if the Shin are expelled it will undoubtedly create a vacuum leaving the PTP with at best partially educated and wholly unqualified MPs.

The Dems have probably had their day as well. I suspect many of those supporting the Bangkok shutdown are not Dems at all but are simply ordinary people who really do want a Thailand re-start.

When the election finally comes I see a brand new party evolving, I believe this is the only way forwards, and certainly the ONLY way to reconcile the wrongs (corruption and human rights abuses) of so many many years past.

I understand the Suthep and Abhisit haters as I understand the PTP and Shin haters. It's got to be out with the old and in with the new and only a middle way will succeed in breaking the perpetual cycle of Thai political deadlock. How do we get there? Well a council of the people, professionals, academics, business leaders and students together with minority participation from the military and all parties. It would also be smart to have international input to the process in some form. Maybe some ASEAN expertise to keep things on course.

A big ask. But this is the aspiration of millions of Thais. I suspect if an election is fought with a new emerging party, the voter turnout will sky rocket.

I fear the path outlined though is fraught with difficulty and more blood will be spilt until the military make the final move and put a framework in place to allow and empower the formation of a peoples council.

[Lupatria]

One may think every of LOS’s elections in the past created serious damage to the country

[iancnx]

Blue sky commentary in English live right now.... For those interested

[pipkins]

Blue sky commentary in English live right now.... For those interested

Cheaper than a lobotomy I suppose.

Meanwhile in the real world Thai Fascist uprising gets slammed in in the media. NY time did a great job today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/world/asia/thai-constitutional-court-says-election-can-be-postponed.html?_r=0

Key quote there is that CC trying to make laws rather than interperet them.

“The power to postpone elections does not exist in any part of the Thai Constitution at all,” Mr. Pornson said on Thai television. “The court itself is trying to establish this power.”

Serious media as the Economist also ran article last year about Country Splitting.

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21594989-thailands-very-unity-now-under-threat-you-go-your-way-ill-go-mine

Straits times reports dangers of Red Gathering in Phatum Thani. http://www.stasiareport.com/the-big-story/asia-report/thailand/story/radical-%E2%80%9Cred-shirt%E2%80%9D-no-fan-thai-government-20140124

All very serious issues and very good chance of problems on this scale if Suthep managed to grab the reins of power.

Not a good idea to read them as some people mention Thaksin in a good light, and Ko Tee says he does not like the Government or UDD. So this is indeed an angry movement that is gathering pace.

Nobody but Suthep and his miss guided mob, think that a Coup or Peoples Council will succeed... Nobody serious anyway. meanwhile, enjoy entreching your view points with Bluesky. It saves you reading anything interesting or informative.

Usual flames don't alter the facts in these media sources.

Edited January 25, 2014 by pipkins

[animatic]

What bugs me about Suthep's protest movement is that the rice scheme is clearly in difficulty, the fuel subsidies are running at impossible levels and sooner or later the populist policies look doomed to fail.

Rice farmers are angry with the government.

Even the weather has turned cold.

Why isn't the Democrat party prepared to wait it out until the next scheduled election date? Do they fear that even with so much going against PPP/TRT/PT they still can't win an election democratically?

Frankly if I were eligible to vote I still wouldn't bother with any of this lot. Perhaps that is why votes are so easy to buy.

The things you list show what they haven't waited to rally.

Why let the whole thing collapse when you can run off the buggers earlier and save something.

The populist policies are NOW, this moment bankrupting the government ,

and the Rice Farmers not getting paid shows this in a way the rice farmers and others can understand.

Fuel is going to be an issue too before the delayed election comes up, when they can't get loans to

pay the fuel subsidies, that seems on the horizon too.

Cold means heat needed, and electric bills mounting and people in need of help they won't get.

This is a perfect storm brewing and the government keeps blinking as Sutheps rally's don't stop.

[animatic]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Hey moonao, your wrong, every word bluespunk wrote is obvious and correct.

Why is it so difficult to see that a tree is a tree?

When the woodchopper is paying your bills to talk the villagers out of their forest land?

Edited January 25, 2014 by animatic

[iancnx]

Blue sky commentary in English live right now.... For those interested

Cheaper than a lobotomy I suppose.

Meanwhile in the real world Thai Fascist uprising gets slammed in in the media. NY time did a great job today.

Serious media as the Economist also ran article last year about Country Splitting.

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21594989-thailands-very-unity-now-under-threat-you-go-your-way-ill-go-mine

Straits times reports dangers of Red Gathering in Phatum Thani. http://www.stasiareport.com/the-big-story/asia-report/thailand/story/radical-%E2%80%9Cred-shirt%E2%80%9D-no-fan-thai-government-20140124

All very serious issues and very good chance of problems on this scale if Suthep managed to grab the reins of power.

Not a good idea to read them as some people mention Thaksin in a good light, and Ko Tee says he does not like the Government or UDD. So this is indeed an angry movement that is gathering pace.

Nobody but Suthep and his miss guided mob, think that a Coup or Peoples Council will succeed... Nobody serious anyway. meanwhile, enjoy entreching your view points with Bluesky. It saves you reading anything interesting or informative.

Usual flames don't alter the facts in these media sources.

Lol. You clearly are not for listening. Blue sky in English is reaching out to the foreign media who to date has only been fed by the governments lies and Thaksin's American PR company. When the reporting becomes more balanced, you get ready for the shift in international opinion. If you are educated you cannot honestly believe the one sided drivel coming out of the states?

[pipkins]

What bugs me about Suthep's protest movement is that the rice scheme is clearly in difficulty, the fuel subsidies are running at impossible levels and sooner or later the populist policies look doomed to fail.

Rice farmers are angry with the government.

Even the weather has turned cold.

Why isn't the Democrat party prepared to wait it out until the next scheduled election date? Do they fear that even with so much going against PPP/TRT/PT they still can't win an election democratically?

Frankly if I were eligible to vote I still wouldn't bother with any of this lot. Perhaps that is why votes are so easy to buy.

The things you list show what they haven't waited to rally.

Why let the whole thing collapse when you can run off the buggers earlier and save something.

The populist policies are NOW, this moment bankrupting the government ,

and the Rice Farmers not getting paid shows this in a way the rice farmers and others can understand.

Fuel is going to be an issue too before the delayed election comes up, when they can't get loans to

pay the fuel subsidies, that seems on the horizon too.

Cold means heat needed, and electric bills mounting and people in need of help they won't get.

This is a perfect storm brewing and the government keeps blinking as Sutheps rally's don't stop.

they havn't run the buggers off though have they.

They are hiding under the bed showing the world what craven cowards they are.

Looking now like an election will take place at sometime, which puts the dems back out in the cold where they belong. Minority party for the rest of their existence and we hope now that any moderates or free thinkers in the party can set up anew and let Abhisit and Korn wither on the vine with Suthep.

Just like Pitak Siam... It's fizzling out and the backers are having second thoughts. This was PDRC spokesman to the press. We need the money from the Royalties as backers are reluctant to put more money in in case we do not succeed. That from Brother No 2 Akanant.. The skinny weasly one with glasses .. think that is his name

[scorecard]

Yingluck two days ago: "There is absolutely no legal way we can postpone the election. It must go through and there is no way to postpone it".

Yingluck this morning: "We will postpone the election if you stop protesting and revealing how corrupt PTP is. Please please promise to do this and we will postpone the election!"

Gotta love her ability to lie so boldly!

Agree, another example of no hesitation to be un-truthful and just keep saying what she / they would like the situation to be, knowing full well that are untruthful.

All fodder for the reform movement.

'Reform' is obviously an umbrella work with many arms and legs. One 'reform' I / many would to see is that the situation after reform generates a new party / parties, all with highly capable, honest, non-corrupt people who respect the law and who don't 'play with the truth'.

[animatic]

Constitutions typically limit powers, they also list powers, but don't list all possible powers.

So if a power to act is not specifically proscribed in a constitution it can bee seen to not be over-ruled.

[davejones]

When the music sops the person holding the parcel will have to do a very un-Thai thing, make a decision. In this case there are two holding the parcel, YL and the EC.

The Constitutional Court tossed this hot issue back by saying the election could be postponed it did not say it has to be / must be / even should be.

YL will want it to go ahead and the EC does not so what next and who will prevail ? I honestly can't see the two sides reaching a reasonable accommodation, I'm sure the election will go ahead and prove nothing.

It just doesn't look good.

If anything the dems might get accused of sabotaging democracy.

What's in a name huh. The democrats who don't play democracy.

Mai Khao Jai, not same countlee me.

I've always been suspicious of any party, country etc that uses words like democrat, democratic or peoples' etc. For example Lao PDR, Peoples Republic of China, North Korea and various countries in Africa and elsewhere. They couldn't be more opposite than the name implies.

Not forgetting the USA Democrat Party. Now that is laughable.

[pattayaorganic]

When the music sops the person holding the parcel will have to do a very un-Thai thing, make a decision. In this case there are two holding the parcel, YL and the EC.

The Constitutional Court tossed this hot issue back by saying the election could be postponed it did not say it has to be / must be / even should be.

YL will want it to go ahead and the EC does not so what next and who will prevail ? I honestly can't see the two sides reaching a reasonable accommodation, I'm sure the election will go ahead and prove nothing.

It just doesn't look good.

If anything the dems might get accused of sabotaging democracy.

What's in a name huh. The democrats who don't play democracy.

Mai Khao Jai, not same countlee me.

I've always been suspicious of any party, country etc that uses words like democrat, democratic or peoples' etc. For example Lao PDR, Peoples Republic of China, North Korea and various countries in Africa and elsewhere. They couldn't be more opposite than the name implies.

Don't forget United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship...

[Bluespunk]

When the music sops the person holding the parcel will have to do a very un-Thai thing, make a decision. In this case there are two holding the parcel, YL and the EC.

The Constitutional Court tossed this hot issue back by saying the election could be postponed it did not say it has to be / must be / even should be.

YL will want it to go ahead and the EC does not so what next and who will prevail ? I honestly can't see the two sides reaching a reasonable accommodation, I'm sure the election will go ahead and prove nothing.

It just doesn't look good.

If anything the dems might get accused of sabotaging democracy.

What's in a name huh. The democrats who don't play democracy.

Mai Khao Jai, not same countlee me.

I've always been suspicious of any party, country etc that uses words like democrat, democratic or peoples' etc. For example Lao PDR, Peoples Republic of China, North Korea and various countries in Africa and elsewhere. They couldn't be more opposite than the name implies.

Don't forget United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship...

Oh, if only I could. Edited January 25, 2014 by Bluespunk

[bigbamboo]

This country is such a political basket case just now that who knows what will happen tomorrow let alone next week.

Now where's my friendly neighbourhood fortune teller......?

[Scamper]

A good article from Bloomberg. In this article it summarizes about as well as any foreign publication at the moment what are the likely outcomes. Indeed, the Yingluck administration will fall - with the most likely scenario - quietly through the courts. Although there are a number of clear routes to the disbanding of the administration, the most potent is likely the rice scheme scandal, with center stage being occupied by the smokescreen rice export deal to China that was a complete ruse on the part of the administration in a desperate bid to juggle the books and free money. All the army has to do is wait for the courts. If the election is held on February 2, there will not be a quorum. And if the administration seeks to delay the election, there is not a court in the land that will grant them legislative powers in the interim. There is no existing provision for a perpetual caretaker administration that has the power of the purse, let alone the power to issue an emergency decree.

[Benmart]

#slashWristsNow. You buggers are depressing!

Depression is a state of mind.

[SantiSuk]

The Constitutional Court's ruling that the election can be postponed is not a done deal yet. A documentary on the Thai crisis on Channel News Asia yesterday included a piece form a Thai legal expert who said that there was no doubt in his mind that the law did not permit the courts to call for a postponement. He added that, even if elections are stymied in certain constituencies there is legal provision for re-holding ballots in those particular constituencies at a later date.

Of course, I have no idea whether that legal analyst is flawed or biased, but it will be interesting to see whether the Court's ruling is challenged by Pheu Thai. Probably not if PT has already rushed to a compromise counter-proposal which acknowledges that there are circumstances in which they would postpone the election.

Channel News Asia's analysis, which was reasonably balanced IMO, concluded that whatever happens and whether or not the flawed Thaksin regime is driven out, the ruling elite/middle classes of Thailand can no longer ignore the new order of politics in Thailand whereby the rural masses are politicised and want to/will exercise their vote. They also noted that there seems to be a tendency to replace the military as the former agent for restoring power (albeit temporarily) to the old regime with a politicised judicial system.

[jerome2]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

Excellent Post, all summed up in one.

Burn the Reichtag ,Suthep

[Baerboxer]

I doesn't matter in the long run. Whether it's Yingluck or someone else, whenever the next election takes place, they will be voted in. The people want their vote to be respected and not to be bullied.

Correct. However the people also want a govt that rules in a legitimate manner, that does not intimidate opponents and the judiciary, that is not more concerned about their own interests (and that of their DL) than those of the country, that does not use the law as a weapon with the DSI as its attack dog, that is not prepared to bankrupt a bank to maintain a criminally inept rice policy, that is not nepotistic, corrupt and incompetent.

People need to have their vote respected but they also need a govt that respects them. PT fails in all these areas, unless they change their ways they will remain unfit to govern.

That's a weak and false (on all points) justification. Your fooling no one here... well... maybe some TV members. Internationally and domestically, no one is buying it.

Why don't you just be honest and call it for what it is, a power grab ?

Ah, so this is what's meant by the expression of "The dog's <deleted>".

Can you take each of the points you claim to be false and explain what makes you believe them to be false and the supporting material? Thought not.

Bloomberg, Moody's, IMF, - all warn about the ludicrous rice scheme, supporting Khun Bluespunk's comment. Perhaps you can enlighten us all on how you reached your conclusion that they are all false?

Edited January 25, 2014 by Baerboxer