Jump to content

Little chance the Thai govt will put off Sunday's election


webfact

Recommended Posts

Getting enough MPs to open parliament will be a nightmare. Not only do 28 constituencies have no candidate, another 21 only have one, and that candidate must get 20% of the total electorate in the area to win, not just 20% of those who voted that day.

It may well be hard to find enough officials to run the polling stations in the south- by law they must come from that area.

Advance voting- what happens to all the voters who couldn't vote on Sunday? By law their votes cannot be included, the polling station will have to apply for 'an exception' and run the poll another day if the EC agree.

It's a tangled mess already, I can't see parliament opening easily and by then Yingluck could well be facing impeachment.

Additionally in 1 candidate constituencies even IF they pass the 20% rule, they must also pass an additional test. They must beat the "no vote" numbers as well.

As crazy as it sounds, the PTP had already a few ideas:

1 ) fill up the missing MPs with party list MPs. No joke, one of the PTP MPs told so. Which would brake a couple of laws and the constitution, and seems even for the PTP too crazy. But who knows.

2 ) by elections. By concentrating a large police force on just a few places they may get it step by step. Sure braking a few laws but not as big as 1 ).

3 ) Which was often discussed....have a complete chaos on the election day and stage a kind of coup themself.

In the 3rd round of voting the 20% rule (and the more than "no votes") gets thrown out and it is winner take all. BUT they still have to have elections in each and every constituency to seat the party-list MP's.

There is no way around that. ALL votes in the country are tallied to decide how many MP's are assigned from each party.

Note-- Yingluck is not running in a constituency and instead is a party-list candidate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 73
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Quote "While 55,243 voters registered for advance voting, 38,093 - or 68.96 per cent - turned up to vote. "

Which is a surprisingly high turnout considering that those 55,243 voters knew they could be subjected to harassment, intimidation and violence from a mob hell-bent on preventing them from voting. That percentage is not much different from general election turnout in the UK.

Strange numbers in the article but there are some facts you need to know.

1) 2.16 MILLION voters signed up for advanced voting.

2) 22% voted

3) 22% of polling stations were closed.

4) approx 800k that signed up for advanced voting were from BKK.

5) Voting is compulsory in Thailand

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

LAW AND ORDER!???

There hasn't been any law and order, or even comprehension of what that term means, in this country for hundreds of years.

The only way to ESTABLISH law and order is to follow the rules that are written in the constitution.

And, under those rules, at this point, they will not be able to seat a government due to the political interference that has already happened in the election process.

So, the only way forward is to try those who have committed crimes interfering with the electoral process, and follow the rules to schedule an election without interference, and enforce the law...

Oh... wait... TIT.

My bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Law and order has already failed here. That is one of the big contributing factors to the lack of democracy. Try and remember you are talking about a caretaker government elected by largest minority in a election which was the result of actions of bullies and armed thugs. A political party openly "advised" and heavily influenced if not "run" by a convicted criminal fugitive; dominated by people who have served bans for corruption. A party that publicly defies the law themselves, as do their rivals.

Many of the candidates standing in the new election, including those on party lists, are facing an array of corruption probes. So many may find themselves banned or even imprisoned.

Complete farce. The whole lot of them,

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

icommunity, on 28 Jan 2014 - 14:08, said:
Jasun, on 28 Jan 2014 - 09:13, said:
Costas2008, on 28 Jan 2014 - 08:13, said:

What kind of Democracy is that, when only one party is competing and will be elected without any opposition?

What is the good of a totalitarian government like that?

Singapore.

one party competing???

Send from my Mobile

I'm so sorry....forgot to mention the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

Not only in UK, they got a branch in Thailand also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My first coup, we had very little media reports. the 2006, we had Thai visa etc. and lots was out in the open.

This time we have twitter, instagram and the ability to share pics more quickly and easily. The pics are really making the difference. Empty rally sites, marches with 200 zigzagging down Silom with the mob running down the footpath cheering it on so it looked like people had come out in numbers. Strangles voters, etc. etc. Brave ladies braving the mob to vote..

For anybody wanting to postopone the election (Suthep and his miserable Peoples Poodle Party) here is a map of the country showing in Blue where voting passed off normally on Sunday and in red, where the fascists struck and their ally from last time,

Peoples mass uprising my backside. Please, look how small Bangkok is. Bangkok... is not thailand - so lets get Suthep in jail to rot.

BfDClBtIMAAMPQt.jpg

Edited by pipkins
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting enough MPs to open parliament will be a nightmare. Not only do 28 constituencies have no candidate, another 21 only have one, and that candidate must get 20% of the total electorate in the area to win, not just 20% of those who voted that day.

It may well be hard to find enough officials to run the polling stations in the south- by law they must come from that area.

Advance voting- what happens to all the voters who couldn't vote on Sunday? By law their votes cannot be included, the polling station will have to apply for 'an exception' and run the poll another day if the EC agree.

It's a tangled mess already, I can't see parliament opening easily and by then Yingluck could well be facing impeachment.

Additionally in 1 candidate constituencies even IF they pass the 20% rule, they must also pass an additional test. They must beat the "no vote" numbers as well.

As crazy as it sounds, the PTP had already a few ideas:

1 ) fill up the missing MPs with party list MPs. No joke, one of the PTP MPs told so. Which would brake a couple of laws and the constitution, and seems even for the PTP too crazy. But who knows.

2 ) by elections. By concentrating a large police force on just a few places they may get it step by step. Sure braking a few laws but not as big as 1 ).

3 ) Which was often discussed....have a complete chaos on the election day and stage a kind of coup themself.

In the 3rd round of voting the 20% rule (and the more than "no votes") gets thrown out and it is winner take all. BUT they still have to have elections in each and every constituency to seat the party-list MP's.

There is no way around that. ALL votes in the country are tallied to decide how many MP's are assigned from each party.

Note-- Yingluck is not running in a constituency and instead is a party-list candidate.

We dwell too much on the Law.

It was drafted by the Coup backers and designed to thwart Governments they did not like.

Fact. The law can be changed and the Quorum lowered and re-sits... Well, if they reall don't want election in the South, so be it.

The law could and should be ignored and the drafters and protectors of it CC and EC disbanded and new law drafted.

Not the sort of Reform we are hearing screamed from the stage at night, but it's a reform that would do more good for the country even than Suthep's impending arrest.

These meetings all over town now are just to keep the mob moving around. They'll pounce soon as they return to base... One day soon and I see this as a tactic. Move them around and spread them thin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So to get this right the PTP stated they won't acknowledge the CC's ruling saying the "court's ruling was not clear and therefore could not be applied in practice" You could have spelt it out to the PTP and they would have said "We don't understand what your talking about"

​The cherry on the cake however is that the PTP state that irrespective of whether the EC endorse them or not they will claim victory if they get the majority.

So after ignoring a CC ruling and not acknowledging the EC not endorsing them after the vote count they will claim legitimacy.

And this arrogance and lack of respect for the law is BEFORE they have even won the election.

Thank God they are their own worst enemies. NACC will make light work of them and be assured the NACC will follow the rule of law when deciding the fate of the regime leaders.

The Law. The PTP's greatest enemy.

"I don't understand what you are talking about"

PTP has been very careful to follow the law as it is dictated in the Constitution, What arrogance and lack of respect for the law? if the court found a way to postpone the election in the Constitution, you can bet your sweet bibbi they would have ruled to postpone the election.

The constitution does not give anyone the right to postpone a election, it is the Constitutional court function to interpret the law, not to write it!

The Court ruled it was possible to postpone an election, depending on the mutual agreement of the EC and PTP, PM Yingluck offered the protesters and the Democrats a way she would agree to postpone the election,They rejected it!

Lets have that election and may the best woman win!

Cheers

Edited by kikoman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone who looks through the numbers revealed in this article sees a picture of utter chaos. Thaksin's cousin, Surapong doesn't. He sees a 90 % success ! But everyone else looking at these statistics sees something else. The parliament can only open if it is 95 % filled. If the advance polling were the election itself, it would be 78 % filled, and that is only under the presumption that the 22 constituencies with only one candidate would get at least 20 % of the vote and exceed the " no " votes cast, and under the assumption that there were no other proceedings and charges of electoral infractions. That's a pretty big " if " ! 78 % filled. That is the current reality, and that reality may very well be the rosiest result of the election. The bottom line is that eight provinces and 28 constituencies will be blank spaces. Parliament is only allowed 25. So the Yingluck administration's zeal on having the election seems bizarre at best, as it will permanently strip them of all power. No court in the land will grant a perpetual caretaker administration legislative power.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Meanwhile.....under Yingluck's leadership,

-Thailand slipped 18 positions on the global corruption index from 84-102th position last year.

-If people wouldn't have started their protest, thousands of corruption cases would have be canceled including amnesty for Thaksin

-THB 780,000,000,000 is spend on buying rice and still no money for the farmers.

I think it is clear that Yingluck had a completely different notion about law and order. And it's fairly clear who are the bullies and thugs jacky.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone who looks through the numbers revealed in this article sees a picture of utter chaos. Thaksin's cousin, Surapong doesn't. He sees a 90 % success ! But everyone else looking at these statistics sees something else. The parliament can only open if it is 95 % filled. If the advance polling were the election itself, it would be 78 % filled, and that is only under the presumption that the 22 constituencies with only one candidate would get at least 20 % of the vote and exceed the " no " votes cast, and under the assumption that there were no other proceedings and charges of electoral infractions. That's a pretty big " if " ! 78 % filled. That is the current reality, and that reality may very well be the rosiest result of the election. The bottom line is that eight provinces and 28 constituencies will be blank spaces. Parliament is only allowed 25. So the Yingluck administration's zeal on having the election seems bizarre at best, as it will permanently strip them of all power. No court in the land will grant a perpetual caretaker administration legislative power.

Elections are pushed through by the Shin clan out of personal reason. They want to show the world that many people still support them regardless of the crimes they commit. A few billions of tax money (election budget) spend for person benefits. All in line with how the Shin clan runs this country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yingluck is pinning all her hopes on this election to claim legitimacy.

As mentioned, it will be much harder for the protesters to shut down polling stations as there are so many more compared to last Sunday.

Ironically, all the ex Democrat MPs must vote to ensure their right to run in the next election. So we will have the scenario of ex Democrat MPs going to polling stations to vote in the south that are closed.

By law, they will have to register a complaint they were unable to vote even though they have boycotted the election!

So if Yingluck wins is she really going to embark on a series of reforms and then dissolve Parliament again, notwithstanding the imminent impeachment probe looming over her by the NAAC?

She doesnt need the poll for legitimacy. She already has legitimacy.

If Suthep and his people council come to power, will it include members of Puea Thai? Surely not.

That means that all the voters who voted for the party that got the most votes in the last election will be stripped of their voice.

Will Suthep make reforms when he comes to power? He and Abhisit were in power for 3 yeara and did absolutely no reforms. Why only the urge for reforms when you are not in power? He has proven that when he has power, he will not make any reforms once already. Why believe him now?

This is about grabbing power, not about reforms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Yes get the great master back to Thailand

Lets return to the old days of mass murder and curruption

The Boss will look after his obediant servants

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the only thing that matters to the government is that they cling to power for the next 180 days to allow the amnesty bill to pass into law

thaksin will then be wiped clean, he can return to thailand and politics and be PM again

as a convicted criminal he cannot

nothing else matters to him

Are you sure he has the guts to come back to Thailand? Could be his last stupid decision ...

There is only 1 important thing here

Get the great master back to Thailand

Lets return to the old days of mass murder and curruption

The Boss will look after his obediant servants

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My first coup, we had very little media reports. the 2006, we had Thai visa etc. and lots was out in the open.

This time we have twitter, instagram and the ability to share pics more quickly and easily. The pics are really making the difference. Empty rally sites, marches with 200 zigzagging down Silom with the mob running down the footpath cheering it on so it looked like people had come out in numbers. Strangles voters, etc. etc. Brave ladies braving the mob to vote..

For anybody wanting to postopone the election (Suthep and his miserable Peoples Poodle Party) here is a map of the country showing in Blue where voting passed off normally on Sunday and in red, where the fascists struck and their ally from last time,

Peoples mass uprising my backside. Please, look how small Bangkok is. Bangkok... is not thailand - so lets get Suthep in jail to rot.

BfDClBtIMAAMPQt.jpg

A bit of background for you from the 1992 coup. Thaksin became a very very dear friend of General Suchinda after the 1992 coup. Never told the General he was undemocratic. Never ran off to the UN or sent letters to the American president saying this is not fair. Why? He became a billionaire after that coup that he supported. He loved that coup. Embraced it like a mother to their first born child. Suckled the proverbial milk off that teat till it was bone dry.

Some would have you try to forget that inconvenient truth. It does not help their agenda. They say they are all about democracy, but love coups when it allows them to makes billions. All about democracy, but hate coups when it removes their ability to make billions, all about democracy yet ignore the majority regarding amnesty, love democracy yet manipulate a narrow supporter base mirroring a dictator, support democracy, but have an unelectable running the show.

That map above is a stark reminder that the tiny little red dot in the middle is where the majority of tax payers are that are paying for the the vast area in blue. It is also a stark reminder that the only principle of democracy that one side adheres too is elections after highlighting the above.

It is not frustrating for the UDD that the brutal terrorist uprising in 2010 was funded by coup money in 1992. What's frustrating is that Suthep supporters wish the UDD supporters could see that.

Again it is not frustrating that the UDD supporters only adhere to one principle of democracy, elections, because that is the only principle they face. Voting is compulsory. They have no choice but to be exposed to that principle. The others? Nahh, they don't care. Give em 40% above market value and they are happy. Don't give em 40% above and they won't vote for the PTP. They have said as much in the last 3 days after 3 broken promises by the PTP. (I don't mean the broken promise by the ex Deputy PM, Chalerm about him being beheaded if Thaksin isn't home by January the 1st either). There are so many broken promises I need to spell out which one I even mean! Loyalty? If the DEMS offered 41% above they would have won the election. Thankfully they hold the countries fiscal discipline in higher regard than winning elections. NOW that is a sacrifice Jaturporn would never understand!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting enough MPs to open parliament will be a nightmare. Not only do 28 constituencies have no candidate, another 21 only have one, and that candidate must get 20% of the total electorate in the area to win, not just 20% of those who voted that day.

It may well be hard to find enough officials to run the polling stations in the south- by law they must come from that area.

Advance voting- what happens to all the voters who couldn't vote on Sunday? By law their votes cannot be included, the polling station will have to apply for 'an exception' and run the poll another day if the EC agree.

It's a tangled mess already, I can't see parliament opening easily and by then Yingluck could well be facing impeachment.

The law will change as per the PM's wishes

All can not be done with the law that says she cannot

at the nest election is will reverse and the Thai people have had there say so the law does not reflect the wants of the people

You can not con all the people all the time

But the PTP believe you can con the masses most of the time

with lies and promises they never intend to keep

for proof just look at the last 3 years

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everybody keeps blubbering about elections in the name of Democracy.

What kind of Democracy is that, when only one party is competing and will be elected without any opposition?

What is the good of a totalitarian government like that?

So they can pass any law to suit their own interests and their own pockets?

Dont give me the excuse that they act for the good of this country.

They never did, not only the last 2.5 years with Yingluck but well before with her brother in charge.

Im also amazed with the foreign powers supporting elections in Thailand.

Their people would have never allowed this charade to take place in their own country.

Posters, call Sutherp, undemocratic leading a mob of hooligans.

At least the man was brave enough to stand against the ignorance and arrogance of this government.

May be it would be much better for the foreign powers and us foreigners living in Thailand to keep quiet and wish the Thai people a better Democratic future.

There is not only one party competing. There is only one main party that is not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The elections on the 2nd are futile. There is no way that it will be able to seat a gov't.

If we look at last Sunday, 22% were shut down leaving 78% open. yet only 22% of those registered actually voted. A clear signal that Surapong was not being factual when he stated that because 66 provinces voted it meant the majority were in favor of the elections.

Already they will be unable to seat the party-list candidates (that is 125 out of 500 that cannot be seated) and w/o 95% there can be no gov't..

...somebody has been doing their homework.

you will not make many friends here by telling the truth

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The elections on the 2nd are futile. There is no way that it will be able to seat a gov't.

If we look at last Sunday, 22% were shut down leaving 78% open. yet only 22% of those registered actually voted. A clear signal that Surapong was not being factual when he stated that because 66 provinces voted it meant the majority were in favor of the elections.

Already they will be unable to seat the party-list candidates (that is 125 out of 500 that cannot be seated) and w/o 95% there can be no gov't..

Why do you not also say.

The Thai Constitution says that the caretaker government will remain the caretaker government until the new parliament is formed.

The EC has to keep running by-elections in any seat where the vote was unsuccessful, and keep doing it over and over again until someone is elected in that area.

After the initial vote the 20% requirement does not matter, so in the end 1 vote for 1 person is enough to win them the seat in by elections if they are held over and over.

So the election PROCESS which has commenced and will further move along on Feb 2nd IS NOT FUTILE and will, eventually, leads to 95% of seats filled through by-elections.

That is the LAW, that is the CONSTITUTION. Elections must proceed unless there is a National Emergency as defined in the written Thai Constitution.

All in my opinion of course.

Your opinion is likely not correct, but it might be.The assumption that an election can go on indefinitely until it is final is very likely flawed. IMO it is clearly flawed in that the vacuum will cause irreparable harm to the country.

the fact that by the time your scenario is finished much of the party list and ministers along with many MP's and some senators are likely to be DQ'd makes your scenario even more tenuous.

It won't be a "judicial coup" that holds Yingluck accountable for her position as chairman of the rice policy, and failure to provide the oversight that would have prevented a bogus G2G sale. It will be, as you would say, the LAW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Was that your opinion in 2010 when the red shirts were using terrorism to push for early elections?

the same as now by the yellow shirts

Whats this B/S about yellow shirts is that the only protest group you know of ??? get out more my friend, ask around, you will find pink-blue-white-and many other coloured shirts among the protest.

Think you have the idea from the minority of posters, who think the majority have got it all wrong.

Yes I agree, so many TV members have re created the yellow shirts as they not want to believe Thais can think for them selves

1) Thet that Taskin is still the rightful owner of Thailand, as he conned people in believing his lies

2) Thinking that any one who does not agree with the first line must be a yellow shirt

My thai wife's hates the yellow shorts and so do all her friends, as they come from Issan, but they are in Bkk protesting

So explain please how this fact is logical under your statement

Even thogh I have made time statement time after time, No one ever want to reply with a logical answer

This is 2014, if the Red shiirts are the majority or not I can not say

but if you and your many tv buddies open your eyes you will see they are carrying the Thai Flag not a yellow one

and there beliefs

"

"Thais agains corruption

But that is hard to argue with so you reinvent the Yellow shirts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My first coup, we had very little media reports. the 2006, we had Thai visa etc. and lots was out in the open.

This time we have twitter, instagram and the ability to share pics more quickly and easily. The pics are really making the difference. Empty rally sites, marches with 200 zigzagging down Silom with the mob running down the footpath cheering it on so it looked like people had come out in numbers. Strangles voters, etc. etc. Brave ladies braving the mob to vote..

For anybody wanting to postopone the election (Suthep and his miserable Peoples Poodle Party) here is a map of the country showing in Blue where voting passed off normally on Sunday and in red, where the fascists struck and their ally from last time,

Peoples mass uprising my backside. Please, look how small Bangkok is. Bangkok... is not thailand - so lets get Suthep in jail to rot.

BfDClBtIMAAMPQt.jpg

My wife and all her Thai friend will be right behind you

You will be the one to do it, will you not, your not just hot air are you

And of coarse your not biased so Taskin will be beside him into the court room for judgment

sorry are you saying you want to be judge and jury as well

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So to get this right the PTP stated they won't acknowledge the CC's ruling saying the "court's ruling was not clear and therefore could not be applied in practice" You could have spelt it out to the PTP and they would have said "We don't understand what your talking about"

​The cherry on the cake however is that the PTP state that irrespective of whether the EC endorse them or not they will claim victory if they get the majority.

So after ignoring a CC ruling and not acknowledging the EC not endorsing them after the vote count they will claim legitimacy.

And this arrogance and lack of respect for the law is BEFORE they have even won the election.

Thank God they are their own worst enemies. NACC will make light work of them and be assured the NACC will follow the rule of law when deciding the fate of the regime leaders.

The Law. The PTP's greatest enemy.

"I don't understand what you are talking about"

PTP has been very careful to follow the law as it is dictated in the Constitution, What arrogance and lack of respect for the law? if the court found a way to postpone the election in the Constitution, you can bet your sweet bibbi they would have ruled to postpone the election.

The constitution does not give anyone the right to postpone a election, it is the Constitutional court function to interpret the law, not to write it!

The Court ruled it was possible to postpone an election, depending on the mutual agreement of the EC and PTP, PM Yingluck offered the protesters and the Democrats a way she would agree to postpone the election,They rejected it!

Lets have that election and may the best woman win!

Cheers

written by a self proclaimed constitutional lawyer

Wow we are all save we now have a Mesiah

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My first coup, we had very little media reports. the 2006, we had Thai visa etc. and lots was out in the open.

This time we have twitter, instagram and the ability to share pics more quickly and easily. The pics are really making the difference. Empty rally sites, marches with 200 zigzagging down Silom with the mob running down the footpath cheering it on so it looked like people had come out in numbers. Strangles voters, etc. etc. Brave ladies braving the mob to vote..

For anybody wanting to postopone the election (Suthep and his miserable Peoples Poodle Party) here is a map of the country showing in Blue where voting passed off normally on Sunday and in red, where the fascists struck and their ally from last time,

Peoples mass uprising my backside. Please, look how small Bangkok is. Bangkok... is not thailand - so lets get Suthep in jail to rot.

BfDClBtIMAAMPQt.jpg

My wife and all her Thai friend will be right behind you

You will be the one to do it, will you not, your not just hot air are you

And of coarse your not biased so Taskin will be beside him into the court room for judgment

sorry are you saying you want to be judge and jury as well

It might be tiny, but over 10% of Thailand's population are registered residents, plus those who are on a blue book elsewhere.

Edited by Mosha
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The elections just not going to happen...

If they do there will be no result that could allow a government to form, better YL concede and cancel the elections now rather than prolong the agony.

Take a long holiday with big brother.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now with the 50 election directors in BKK having resined, I am having a hard time seeing any scenario where the elections are not annulled and new elections called. http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/bangkoks-50-election-directors-resign/#

How about this... The election is on. It was fine on Suday in 66 provinces and if you see the map of the affected area, all the red is pretty much confined to Suthep and his henchmen.

Him and his thugs may think they control the south... But they got an ass kicking in Pattani. Not seen any of the leaders that far down south.

BfD4OWrCcAA6jQr.jpg

Edited by pipkins
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...