Current Political Divide and the Longer Term Consequences for Expats

[iancnx]

Reading another thread, many are wondering what could happen to our (Expat) long term future here in Thailand.

Some Thais may not want us here, even those (hearsay) who might be amongst the highest echelons of society. But at the end of the day I would imagine the math simply doesn't add up. Take our foreign currency daily investments out of the equation, together with bank deposits, and inevitable foreigner condo sales resulting in considerable outflows of foreign currency, I don't see how the books will balance (leaving aside the huge current domestic deficits and debt). Then of course we move onto the much higher stakes of foreign companies closing down and the effect that would have on the local economies, and local employment, not to mention the loss of revenue in tax.

Without us the country will collapse, though I have no doubt Asian tigers will be ready to fill the void in due course, and for this reason future immigration policy may well be selective!

Throwing all of us out is Inconceivable in my view. If you are married and have biological families here I think you are safe. If you are retired be prepared to be asked for more cash to be deposited. If you are here on a dodgy visa suggest you have an exit plan. If you are a teacher and you are well respected, fully qualified and are adding value, you may be asked to stay. 'Other' so called teachers who are frankly taking the p1ss I suggest you consider an exit plan. The New Ministry of Education in the New Order (whenever that may be) will have no choice but to wipe the slate clean and start again, and freeloaders together with the 'agents' may well be looking for an easier option elsewhere.

Just interested what others think? I have only been here 8 years, so my knowledge is limited. It would add value if posters state how long they have been here and which visa they have, to get a better flavour of opinion. Keep the Red/Yellow debate for the other threads. This is not politically inspired in any way.

[wym]

Then why even bring up the "current political divide" or even suggest big changes are coming?

I think nothing that affects us will change any faster than it's been changing over the past few decades.

And I think you're way off, exaggerating our economic contributions. Sure MNCs are important, but even they are not THAT important.

We individual teachers, sexpats and retirees aren't even a drop in the bucket, and in fact TPTB would see our money flows to upcountry villages as a negative not positive at all, sure they'd be happy to see us go but we're not important enough to bother with they'll just continue to tolerate us, eventually what we're here for will get unaffordable for us and the wealthier Asians will have the place to themselves.

Edited February 17, 2014 by wym

[iancnx]

Well I think everyone would acknowledge that change is around the corner irrespective of what party win what. The current political divide is the driver for change any which way.

I'm not sure there are any stats that indicate how important expat investment is. Hence my asking for views.

For example

if there are a 1000 guys out there similar to me (20k per annum) then total expenditure in thai would be £20 million

If there are 100,000 guys out there similar to me then total expenditure in thai would be £2 billion

That's just the retirees daily spend.

Not such a small amount perhaps.

[Kitsune]

I thought we were not supposed to talk politics outside the news forum ?

[iancnx]

I thought we were not supposed to talk politics outside the news forum ?

Was not aware of that. The thread here http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/704896-red-shirt-supporters-destroy-anti-govt-movement-stage/?p=7448538 started the off topic debate on this subject. Mods?

This thread is not politically inspired whatsoever.

Edited February 17, 2014 by iancnx

[hellodolly]

The last line is

"This is not politically inspired in any way"

Hog wash if it wasn't for the current political situation you wouldn't have posted it.

As far as I am concerned it will make no difference to me. I am a retiree which means I am bringing in over 65,000 baht a month and I have the papers to prove it. It works out to ballpark $26,000 a year and that is just the minimum. My papers show a lot more than that. I have been here for 8 years.

The government will not be that concerned with me. How ever at $20,000 a year they may as they do pick up on medical bills from some in that category. I would look for a tightening up in that area no matter who wins and rightly so.

Of course there are those who don't want us here. But I do not believe it makes a rat's ass difference to most of the Thai's.

Kind of like when they build a huge Mosque here in Chiang Mai area. A friend of mine went and watched therm every day for about three hours. He had a walker that he could sit in. A lot of the workers were Muslims and I asked him if they excepted him and he said about two or three didn't but the rest either didn't care or became friends with him. He knew about some of the problems they had at home and they gladly explained what they were doing as he had been a white collar worker all his life.

What do I see for the future Higher prices the same as in the rest of the world and a tightening up on medical. The rest same same. Maybe in ten years they may ask for proof of more income. Hopefully eliminate the 90 day reporting in order to streamline immigration.

Reminds me of when I was living in Vancouver Canada and we had a large influx of Chinese and Indians. We used to complain about them why don't they learn English and the way they drive and other things about their culture. Yet we never said they should go back to where they came from. In that point we accepted them.

What would happen if we pulled out all are investments in the country and the day to day living expenses. No big deal they would go back to there old Thai culture which worked very well for them. It is only are influence telling them it is wrong they should all have a house, a car, a fancy phone and TV', computers and all the rest of the things we consider part of the western culture. That we who live here in Thailand have turned are back on and rather than go back to it we change them to be like us. I will be long dead before it is done and in the mean time I am going to enjoy the difference.

I guess you have figured out now that I do not suffer under a persecution complex.

[Ricardo]

Well I think everyone would acknowledge that change is around the corner irrespective of what party win what. The current political divide is the driver for change any which way.

I'm not sure there are any stats that indicate how important expat investment is. Hence my asking for views.

For example

if there are a 1000 guys out there similar to me (20k per annum) then total expenditure in thai would be £20 million

If there are 100,000 guys out there similar to me then total expenditure in thai would be £2 billion

That's just the retirees daily spend.

Not such a small amount perhaps.

Just to point out that, due to the 'multiplier-effect', that number ought to be several times larger.

The money we spend, then goes round-and-round within the economy, generating more wages & taxes & sales for locals.

Many of us also support more-than-one other person directly, which would also increase our relative worth, to the Thai economy.

Not that I'd ever expect any internal decision to take due account of us farangs, of course.

[wym]

Well I think everyone would acknowledge that change is around the corner irrespective of what party win what. The current political divide is the driver for change any which way.

I completely disagree. Even if there is a change of government, just like back home this hardly changes anything in the day-to-day reality of life at the grass roots level, it's all just window dressing.

Even if there is a popular armed uprising (very slight chance IMO), once things settle down they will go back to normal.

I'm not sure there are any stats that indicate how important expat investment is. Hence my asking for views.

For example

if there are a 1000 guys out there similar to me (20k per annum) then total expenditure in thai would be £20 million

If there are 100,000 guys out there similar to me then total expenditure in thai would be £2 billion

That's just the retirees daily spend.

Not such a small amount perhaps.

The only accurate stats would be for true investment, at the MNC level, nothing to do with the small-beer farang consumption spending you're talking about.

The fact is most of this ends up supporting people at the lower end of the economic spectrum, often rural poor families.

This is NOT a positive for TPTB here but a negative.

But again, we're not important enough for them to take any notice one way or the other.

Perhaps one day they'll get tired of us and the way we behave here and toss us out.

But IMO that's unlikely and certainly nothing to do with the causes of the current instability.

[Rooo]

I thought we were not supposed to talk politics outside the news forum ?

I thought we were not supposed to talk politics outside the news forum ?

Was not aware of that. The thread here http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/704896-red-shirt-supporters-destroy-anti-govt-movement-stage/?p=7448538 started the off topic debate on this subject. Mods?

This thread is not politically inspired whatsoever.

In answer to these 2 posts, here is the warning, it does not say no discussion outside News forum, it is specifically directed at General.

Policy In General Regarding Thailand Election/Political Discussions

As a result of the great increase in posts about politics in Thailand, we are requesting that members keep political discussion confined to threads already open in theThailand News Forum.

Non-political topics in General which are hijacked with political arguments will see posts removed without further notice.

Members who cannot comply with our request will risk a posting suspension.

Thanks for your understanding and participation on Thaivisa.

Thaivisa moderating team

[Thai at Heart]

Calm down. It might get interesting, but it isn't going to get any more restrictive

The immigration and investment laws are about as restrictive as they could be and no one got seriously put off yet.

You have to give away 51% of your company and get treated like a pariah by immigration already. How bad could it get?

Give away 75% and have to employ 20 thais to get your work.permit?

[Estrada]

I have been doing business here for 32 years and lived here for 20 years. There is no change to the way Thai politics is carried out. One party gets in and then the opposition immediately tries to get them out due on the basis that they are the most corrupt Government ever. The opposition then gets in power and then the ousted party immediately tries to get the new opposition out. Chulalongkorn University carried out a study from 1960 to 1990 and found that the "leakage" from Government contracts was between 20 to 40%. In 1999 they also produced a report on corruption scandals during Suthep's time as an MP, which included a Government Rice Subsidy Scheme in which the rice farmers were cheated.

Nothing has changed and there is nothing to worry about for foreigners who live or holiday here.

[Lancelot]

When you are back home, how often do you think about the Thai expats and tourists in your country? I think its about the same for most Thais here

No one can accurately predict the future; however I don't fore see a concerted effort to either expel or retain we expats. Frankly my dear, the Thais don't give a damn

[qdinthailand]

stupid talk! TL;DR

[Suradit69]

Some Thais may not want us here ...

Without us the country will collapse ...

[CIHUAHUA]

Don't worry, the Thais are not going to tell us to leave. They don't want to lose their Songkran targets.

[iancnx]

Interested to see that the perception of some is that £20,000 per annum pension is merely "small beer farang consumption spending"

I should have thought baht 90,000 per month expenditure, with no debt to service, was quite a high contribution to Thailand generally, though, without the stats of how many it is difficult to quantify.

Any other thoughts?

[wym]

It's not significant except to those we help, and they are usually not even considered worthy to mop the floors of TPTB I'm talking about, as I said they'd rather see the rural poor kept in their place, not waltzing around with foeigners.

And you seemed to be conflating this SPENDING with "international investment", my point being one's got nothing to do with the other, if they kicked out the 99% of residents here not associated with MNCs, the real investment inflow wouldn't be at all affected.

Next you'll be saying they wouldn't dare ever enforce nominee PLCs fraudulently holding Thai land in resort areas because prices would plummet and a few corrupt officials would get egg on their face. . .

Now that's actually one thing I COULD see happening, relatively minor hiccup in the big picture but would be funny, som nam na. . .

And yes, that's definitely a low income by US standards, with a few kids would put you at the official poverty line.

Edited February 18, 2014 by wym

[realenglish1]

I don't understand this speculation. First, the protests have nothing to do with Expats. No one is really protesting our existence. Secondly our financial contributions in Thai society are substantial and in large part support the Condo rental and purchase community.

I don' t see any substantial change as we are not in the mix as far as the government is concerned . This is all about money and internal politics.

This is not a
"Chicken Little " Scenario

[VegasVic]

Well I think everyone would acknowledge that change is around the corner irrespective of what party win what. The current political divide is the driver for change any which way.

I'm not sure there are any stats that indicate how important expat investment is. Hence my asking for views.

For example

if there are a 1000 guys out there similar to me (20k per annum) then total expenditure in thai would be £20 million

If there are 100,000 guys out there similar to me then total expenditure in thai would be £2 billion

That's just the retirees daily spend.

Not such a small amount perhaps.

Just to point out that, due to the 'multiplier-effect', that number ought to be several times larger.

The money we spend, then goes round-and-round within the economy, generating more wages & taxes & sales for locals.

Many of us also support more-than-one other person directly, which would also increase our relative worth, to the Thai economy.

Not that I'd ever expect any internal decision to take due account of us farangs, of course.

Ricardo, You are quite correct about the multiplier effect, for every Dollar (Pound, Euro, Yen ect.) that an expat or tourist brings into the Kingdom and spends it generates around a $5-$6 increase to the GNP! Right now Thailand is in a bit of a precarious situation given that Burma is opening up and Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia (not to mention India) are competing not only for tourist Dollars but for foreign investment as well. It would be hard to imagine that Thailand would go back to an isolationist existence after they have enjoyed such an explosion in their economy over the past few decades, however this fascist nut suthep does give me pause Once the dust settles I would imagine everything will remain much the same, after all Thailand does have one of the more restrictive immigration policies in place already

[VegasVic]

Well I think everyone would acknowledge that change is around the corner irrespective of what party win what. The current political divide is the driver for change any which way.

I'm not sure there are any stats that indicate how important expat investment is. Hence my asking for views.

For example

if there are a 1000 guys out there similar to me (20k per annum) then total expenditure in thai would be £20 million

If there are 100,000 guys out there similar to me then total expenditure in thai would be £2 billion

That's just the retirees daily spend.

Not such a small amount perhaps.

Just to point out that, due to the 'multiplier-effect', that number ought to be several times larger.

The money we spend, then goes round-and-round within the economy, generating more wages & taxes & sales for locals.

Many of us also support more-than-one other person directly, which would also increase our relative worth, to the Thai economy.

Not that I'd ever expect any internal decision to take due account of us farangs, of course.

Ricardo, You are quite correct about the multiplier effect, for every Dollar (Pound, Euro, Yen ect.) that an expat or tourist brings into the Kingdom and spends it generates around a $5-$6 increase to the GNP! Right now Thailand is in a bit of a precarious situation given that Burma is opening up and Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia (not to mention India) are competing not only for tourist Dollars but for foreign investment as well. It would be hard to imagine that Thailand would go back to an isolationist existence after they have enjoyed such an explosion in their economy over the past few decades, however this fascist nut suthep does give me pause alt=rolleyes.gif width=20 height=20> Once the dust settles I would imagine everything will remain much the same, after all Thailand does have one of the more restrictive immigration policies in place already alt=wai2.gif width=20 height=20>

Should read GDP not GNP

[hellodolly]

Calm down. It might get interesting, but it isn't going to get any more restrictive

The immigration and investment laws are about as restrictive as they could be and no one got seriously put off yet.

You have to give away 51% of your company and get treated like a pariah by immigration already. How bad could it get?

Give away 75% and have to employ 20 thais to get your work.permit?

I am confused now. I thought you could only own 49% of the company. How is it you came to own all of it. You had to in order to give 51% away.

It must be a very lucrative thing for you or you would not have brought it to this country.

[thailiketoo]

Two expats on the corner 1942 Thailand. John, what's up. Hear the news? Thailand declared war on the Yanks and the Brits.

Ohhh not good. Don't worry. It's just a Thai war thingy. I think they are just trying to get money to build new condos Bangkok.

OK cool. Stay away from railroad bridges though. Ya, gotcha you there bro.

[wym]

Oh ya, that's comparable. . .

Look, these are barely significant protests much less "riots", a tea party compared to an average Saturday night in any major city back home.

The actual coup didn't even shut down the schools for more than a day or two, the floods were just a minor inconvenience for most even in Bangkok.

All it's done is disrupt traffic flows and the economy. Shuffle the deck chairs a bit and things go back to normal, as in SNAFU and life goes on.

Done.

[thailiketoo]

Oh ya, that's comparable. . .

Look, these are barely significant protests much less "riots", a tea party compared to an average Saturday night in any major city back home.

The actual coup didn't even shut down the schools for more than a day or two, the floods were just a minor inconvenience for most even in Bangkok.

All it's done is disrupt traffic flows and the economy. Shuffle the deck chairs a bit and things go back to normal, as in SNAFU and life goes on.

Done.

My point was that WWII when Thailand fought America and Britain and Australia and India that only caused a minor disruption for 3 years. So these political hiccups are not much to worry about.

[wym]

I would have thought Allied nationals would've had a hard time for those 3 years. . .

[thailiketoo]

I would have thought Allied nationals would've had a hard time for those 3 years. . .

Depends. Some of the POW's were hidden in a palace downtown Bangkok and lived like royalty. It was still Thailand and who you know is more important than just about anything except how much you pay.

[Robby nz]

The only thing that I can see as making any difference would be if the army took over (god forbid)

For the way I see it there would be an armed rebellion from all side that would in probably degenerate into civil war, something like the south.

Utter lawlessness and farang would be an easy target

I would not want to live in something like that.

[thailiketoo]

The only thing that I can see as making any difference would be if the army took over (god forbid)

For the way I see it there would be an armed rebellion from all side that would in probably degenerate into civil war, something like the south.

Utter lawlessness and farang would be an easy target

I would not want to live in something like that.

The army took over about 80 years ago and still is in control as far as I know. Haven't you noticed when anyone wants to cut the military budget or put control of the military in civilian hands there is another coup?

[marcusd]

Robby. I am on a retirement visa switching to non imm b.. Business. I don't need to but I am.

I have a Thai company fully supported by total foreign money or 9 Thais have no jobs. Double normal Thai wages.

U was doing a BOI company. 3 months ago HUGE ASSISTANCE. now ZERO. I was told, 3 a week are leaving Chiang Mai. I was told currently government policy is they don't want us as they want ooorr uneducated people easier to control,

Their own officials told me this.

As my cash is all in overseas banks and i only transfer what I need week to week there is no risk.

To answer you BOI is Board if Investment. For foreigners. So things ARE getting worse and if this mob stays it will become harder in all retirees and expats

Marcusd. Via tapatalk

[marcusd]

The only thing that I can see as making any difference would be if the army took over (god forbid)

For the way I see it there would be an armed rebellion from all side that would in probably degenerate into civil war, something like the south.

Utter lawlessness and farang would be an easy target

I would not want to live in something like that.

Call me and I will explain. If army takes over we will be safer. I have this from up high

Marcusd. Via tapatalk