Thai politics: Turning point seems to be close, but what will it bring?

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Turning point seems to be close, but what will it bring?
ATTAYUTH BOOTSRIPOOM

BANGKOK: -- AFTER ALMOST four months in a political vacuum, the situation on Bangkok's streets appears to be nearing a climax - leaving the big question of how this ongoing conflict will end and whether it will be good or bad for the country.

There have been some clear signals the end is approaching. The government has stepped up its counterattacks against the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC). The anti-government group has failed to oust the Pheu Thai-led administration of Yingluck Shinawatra, although it managed to mobilise several thousand supporters in its three mass rallies since last November. Its campaign called for reforms before the next election.

The PDRC's ongoing "Bangkok shutdown" rally, which began on January 13, again has failed to cause a severe impact on the government, which opted at first not to use force on the protesters. However, protest sites were attacked repeatedly with gunfire and explosions, mostly at night, and the authorities blamed a mysterious "third party" - despite, in some cases, the suspected assailants being recorded on security cameras carrying out their attacks.

The government persists in portraying itself as adhering to the democratic way and the principles of change through election, while painting the protesters as undemocratic, particularly after the PDRC boycotted the February 2 election.

However, approaches have been changing after the government's Centre for Maintaining Peace and Order (CMPO), led by caretaker Labour Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, began its campaign to reclaim the protest sites on Valentine's Day.

Another such operation on Tuesday at the Phan Fah Lilat Bridge led to clashes between crowd-control police and protesters. Five people were killed, including both protesters and police. A separate operation at the Energy Ministry was completed successfully as police managed to seize back the ministry compound and arrested more than 100 protesters.

Somkiat Pongpaiboon, a PDRC leader who was arrested and detained during Tuesday's police operation near Government House, said he was freed shortly afterwards by three anonymous "men in black" after the police were attacked.

Chalerm, who heads the CMPO, said police operations to reclaim protest sites would continue - which could mean more violence and victims and lead the government into an impasse.

Also, the National Anti-Corruption Commission has found grounds to press charges against caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra for alleged negligence and dereliction of duty over the government's controversial rice-subsidy scheme. This may result in criminal prosecution and impeachment proceedings if the anti-graft agency is unhappy with her explanation. The prime minister will be suspended from duty if the anti-graft agency formally indicts her - another factor that could push the government into a corner.

With the CMPO's use of force and the legal problems facing the prime minister, an end of some sort could be at hand. However, it is difficult to predict whether such a conclusion will be favourable or damaging to Thailand.


-- The Nation 2014-02-20

[jollyman]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

[Ricardo]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

So fire Chalerm, for disobeying your direct orders, not to use force against the protesters ?

[noitom]

When you get to the fork in the road, take it. All is clear in Thailand. No need to be concerned.

[huanga]

Drama#1 - red shirts (protagonists) & yellow shirts (antagonists)

Drama#2 - yellow shirts (protagonists) & red shirts (antagonists)

Drama#3 - repeat of #1

Drama#4 - repeat of #2

Thai politics is just like the everyday Thai drama on TV. The theme (self greed) is always the same and the only variables are the actors. Turning point is just the last episode of this particular drama and soon another new drama will start with a brand new cast, but the theme will not change.

Want a change? Change the script then! Easier said than done!

Edited February 20, 2014 by huanga

[Brian67]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

she's gonna need divine intervention me thinks

[chainarong]

There is no turning point for Thailand, there seems denial in some quarters, that hate in the community is rampant, it is either red or yellow, there will be no turning point, just a continued haze of hate hanging over Thailand, flare - ups will be the norm, especially if the PTP continue on their corrupt money miss- managed way

[Scamper]

The situation is indeed coming to a head for all the reasons pointed out in this article and more. Chalerms's defiance yesterday of the Civil Court's order not to use violent dispersal of the protests - is likely the definitive factor. Never before has a cabinet minister - or anyone invested with so much power - issued such a blanket defiance of a court ruling. By so doing, Chalerm has set himself above the law. Having said that, the Civil Court's ruling stands, and if Chalerm defies that ruling by use of violent dispersal, the army may very well step in in defense of the court's ruling. The Civil Court has given the army a means to judge if a line has been crossed. But that notwithstanding, the courts are proceeding, and the administration - now caught in a cul-de-sac political vacuum from which there is no path out - has nowhere to go.

[Briggsy]

The Army will kill a not insignificant number of people on the streets of Bangkok. Traditionally that is how all Thai power struggles end. Thais love their tradition and tend to stick to what they know. The Army is already out on the street actively involved in firefights but not yet in an official capacity. Denials of involvement to the press, both domestic and international, however incredible, are still the order of the day.

[Suriya4]

What will in bring?

The collapse of the Shin empire.

No Shin = No Corruption

[tezzainoz]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

set up your government in Chaing Mai

so another government can be set up in Bangkok

then the two of you can see who is the best government

and the people can get back to being happy again

[h90]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

So fire Chalerm, for disobeying your direct orders, not to use force against the protesters ?

Well she isn't in the position to fire anyone. The boss sits in Dubai and rumors say he ordered force.

[PREM-R]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

[djjamie]

Good luck Suthep. Don't let the thugs get their way.

[h90]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

[soalbundy]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

she's gonna need divine intervention me thinks

That wont be possible,Buddha has moved to the peace and stability of the Central African Republic

[PREM-R]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

You believe what Suthep says? You quote 1 to 1.5 years Maximum for the unelected government, but who can remove them if they decide to stay? Can't you just hear them making their speeches in 1 to 1.5 years, "The time is not yet right for elections", "We are not yet finished with our campaign against corruption", "We need more time to complete our task, for the good of the nation" etc.

[soalbundy]

What will in bring?

The collapse of the Shin empire.

No Shin = No Corruption

you jest of course,after this debacle only the names of the recipients will change. Nothing sets a Thai's heart aflame more than the sight of a 1000 Baht banknote looking for a new owner.

[soalbundy]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

You believe what Suthep says? You quote 1 to 1.5 years Maximum for the unelected government, but who can remove them if they decide to stay? Can't you just hear them making their speeches in 1 to 1.5 years, "The time is not yet right for elections", "We are not yet finished with our campaign against corruption", "We need more time to complete our task, for the good of the nation" etc.

Wont happen,foreign investment would dry up,more mayhem on the streets. It would be a case of press reset button and start the game anew.

[Centrum]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

So fire Chalerm, for disobeying your direct orders, not to use force against the protesters ?

Yingbadluck never given direct order in her life. Think you mean the Dubai Dumbo.

Outtaluck is taking orders from the Dubai Demon. He is many things but dumb isn't one of them. I am not a TS supporter but he has outsmarted his opponents at every turn and it is fair to concede that. Until the Dems get their act together and try and win the hearts and minds of the electorate, Taksin and PT will be way ahead of the pack. The ' born to rule' days are over guys. Get used to it.

The 'born to rule' days are certainly being challenged and may well be over, but you're being naive if you think that Thaksin and his puppets are going to get their way.

What has long been overdue is the awakening and maturing of the disenfranchised country folk. Hopefully the rice scam will wisen them up to realise that Thaksin has scammed them as much as the hated elite in Bangkok, and they will finally create political foundations built on honest performance as politicians, (and in the meantime tar and feather the likes of Kwanchai, Jatuporn, Arisaman and Nattawut for being toadies in the pay of Thaksin while pretending to care about the country folk).

The present phase has succeeded in making government by the PTP nigh on impossible. Almost everyone agrees that an alternative solution is needed, and that solution won't include a Thaksin nominee.

I think the real 'smarties' here have been the military. They have kept their distance and are therefore above criticism and yet their side is standing strong.

The outcome of the situation may hang on the NACC rice scam case. Yingluck and co may be forced to resign, ungracefully but against their will, and that will calm things down for the moment.

[Yunla]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

With the greatest respect to you and your political beliefs, I would consider that Yingluck let a thug have his way four years ago when she was pressganged into running for PM.

In my humble view, she never wanted this job. As exhibit A in my case I would present how sick and tired TV posters are of hearing Thaksin whining and crying and feeling sorry for himself all the time, if we are sick of it how do you think Yingluck must feel after hearing Thaksin sobbing on her shoulder for decades. She has been bombarded by his miserable ego constantly and finally she started to believe him, probably as a way to retain her sanity. I don't think for an instant that she wanted to be PM, she spent the last four years avoiding Parliament whenever possible, and just following orders and trying to avoid getting too much of the filth on her own hands. I think she is a victim of Thaksin, an arch dominator figure with a serious martyr complex, and however much of his self-indulgent wailing we have endured in the press, you can be sure that Yingluck has had to listen to it in private a trillion times more, in stereo and 3D.

That said, if I were in her shoes (I'd sell them!) I would have told him to get stuffed as soon as the more heavyweight corrupt and harmful government policies started to arrive via SKYPE. She is not blameless, but underlying it is that she is a victim of this hulking runaway ego who is living in his own private desert mirage somewhere.

Edited February 20, 2014 by Yunla

[I knew this would happen]

What will in bring?

The collapse of the Shin empire.

No Shin = No Corruption

[BeforeTigers]

The Civil Court has given the army a means to judge if a line has been crossed.

Very good point.

[Goat Roper]

The situation is indeed coming to a head for all the reasons pointed out in this article and more. Chalerms's defiance yesterday of the Civil Court's order not to use violent dispersal of the protests - is likely the definitive factor. Never before has a cabinet minister - or anyone invested with so much power - issued such a blanket defiance of a court ruling. By so doing, Chalerm has set himself above the law. Having said that, the Civil Court's ruling stands, and if Chalerm defies that ruling by use of violent dispersal, the army may very well step in in defense of the court's ruling. The Civil Court has given the army a means to judge if a line has been crossed. But that notwithstanding, the courts are proceeding, and the administration - now caught in a cul-de-sac political vacuum from which there is no path out - has nowhere to go.

Don't worry, iLerm will never go against court orders. He is a coward and full of BS and is all talk. His spewing of BS is all for show for his boss the Dubai Dandy. iLerm is for the most part inert and nothing more than a noise maker.

[rogerdee123]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

You believe what Suthep says? You quote 1 to 1.5 years Maximum for the unelected government, but who can remove them if they decide to stay? Can't you just hear them making their speeches in 1 to 1.5 years, "The time is not yet right for elections", "We are not yet finished with our campaign against corruption", "We need more time to complete our task, for the good of the nation" etc.

Wont happen,foreign investment would dry up,more mayhem on the streets. It would be a case of press reset button and start the game anew.

I agree .. they've done the transition thing before here ... Annand's govt was a transition one I believe .... the plan/schedule was followed .. elections followed ... back to normal

[Ned]

So the army steps in ......kills some more reds when they protest in the streets ..... another but more draconian military constitution........an appointed leader .....Sound familiar? Then what?? The hatred goes on and on and on. People are jailed for saying certain things about certain people....and the hatred intensifies. An election in five or so years and the same overwhelming result. Then what? Hopeless.

[phantomfiddler]

Good luck Suthep. Don't let the thugs get their way.

Right on, Jamie !!

[JAG]

So the army steps in ......kills some more reds when they protest in the streets ..... another but more draconian military constitution........an appointed leader .....Sound familiar? Then what?? The hatred goes on and on and on. People are jailed for saying certain things about certain people....and the hatred intensifies. An election in five or so years and the same overwhelming result. Then what? Hopeless.

It is. The only way is to accept the results of fair elections, and allow parliamentary democracy to play out.

I happen to think that Thailand's electoral system is pretty fair, and produces a reasonable representation of the electorates wishes. I'm less sure (and know less) about its parliament. If it needs reform(I suspect it does) then that reform must come from within. It will not come from a corrupt politician bellowing abuse and threats on the streets, demanding the replacement of an elected government by an appointed council, and using a mob which includes a significant proportion of hired thugs to prevent an election

Nor will it come from using courts and commissions filled with opponents of the current government to dismiss the government.

As I said, elections, and abide by the results.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited February 20, 2014 by JAG

[Cnxforever]

The Army will kill a not insignificant number of people on the streets of Bangkok. Traditionally that is how all Thai power struggles end. Thais love their tradition and tend to stick to what they know. The Army is already out on the street actively involved in firefights but not yet in an official capacity. Denials of involvement to the press, both domestic and international, however incredible, are still the order of the day.

So why do you think then the army is not out yet in an official capacity? Are people here really that naive and think this is about is about red and yellow shirts?

This is about some people very high up fighting for survival - and they will take the country down with them if they have to - they have nothing to loose!

Prayuth is between a rock and a hard place - if he chooses the wrong side now he is finished - he is torn between being loyal to his old bosses who are behind these demonstrations - and something we can not talk about here.

And the reason the army is not out yet is not because of what you think - have you ever heard about unit 904?? Prayuth knows if he faces armed resistance his soldiers will run nobody will want to die for his and his ex bosses political ambitions!

[The Deerhunter]

What will in bring?

The collapse of the Shin empire.

No Shin = No Corruption

Silly equation. Corruption is endemic in the LOS. Just getting rid of the Shins will help but that alone will not get rid of corruption. It will take changes to the laws, possibly the constitution, manpower, willpower & serious penalties that will deter people from major corruption. There needs too be a definition of the size of the corruption scams that are to be targeted and then realistic sentences need to be imposed to reduce the attraction of "the brown paper bag!!!!"

I am in favour of elections, but damn it, when idiots keep re-electing the fox to have the key to the hen house, you have to think outside the square for a bit. Stupidity is repeating the same mistake & expecting a different outcome.