Thai politics: Turning point seems to be close, but what will it bring?

[Jingthing]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

Which thugs?

[The Deerhunter]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

For all the criticism Suthep gets he's is doing a remarkable job. He remains the undisputed figurehead of a many headed organisation united to a common cause. Getting rid of the worst corruption problem the country has had in at least living memory. Somehow he is representing a consortium of hopeful Absolute Monarchists, ambitious Democrats, earnest political anti-corruption reformers, reasonable anti-Thaksinites and a covey of rabid anti-Thaksinites, (plus other splinter special interest groups). He will not even know who some of these supporters are really playing for, but they wont make it to the top of the heap. The combined movement has been remarkably peaceful over the last 2 months. Yes, Red- trolls compare the body count from 2010 before you post. He has laid down his conditions (see above) and they sound workable to me. I said workable, Not immediately democratic but this country doesn't do Democracy very well yet, does it? Why not give his peace plan a chance? Could it be worse than the last several years that have almost bankrupted the country?????

[englishoak]

The Army will kill a not insignificant number of people on the streets of Bangkok. Traditionally that is how all Thai power struggles end. Thais love their tradition and tend to stick to what they know. The Army is already out on the street actively involved in firefights but not yet in an official capacity. Denials of involvement to the press, both domestic and international, however incredible, are still the order of the day.

So why do you think then the army is not out yet in an official capacity? Are people here really that naive and think this is about is about red and yellow shirts?

This is about some people very high up fighting for survival - and they will take the country down with them if they have to - they have nothing to loose!

Prayuth is between a rock and a hard place - if he chooses the wrong side now he is finished - he is torn between being loyal to his old bosses who are behind these demonstrations - and something we can not talk about here.

And the reason the army is not out yet is not because of what you think - have you ever heard about unit 904?? Prayuth knows if he faces armed resistance his soldiers will run nobody will want to die for his and his ex bosses political ambitions!

Aye very true, Prayuth I would think will be ticking off the days until his retirement with a very sweaty palm.

In the end. There can be only one.

[Suriya4]

What will in bring?

The collapse of the Shin empire.

No Shin = No Corruption

Silly equation. Corruption is endemic in the LOS. Just getting rid of the Shins will help but that alone will not get rid of corruption. It will take changes to the laws, possibly the constitution, manpower, willpower & serious penalties that will deter people from major corruption. There needs too be a definition of the size of the corruption scams that are to be targeted and then realistic sentences need to be imposed to reduce the attraction of "the brown paper bag!!!!"

I am in favour of elections, but dam_n it, when idiots keep re-electing the fox to have the key to the hen house, you have to think outside the square for a bit. Stupidity is repeating the same mistake & expecting a different outcome.

[Hulkster]

The turning point will be when the democrats, yellow shirts, suthep, courts, army, and most importantly their Sino-Thai backers pulling the strings (and other persons I dare not mention) finally get what they want which is denying government to the democratically elected PTP. They all want the old power structure where it was their snouts in the trough. Corruption is bad only when they don't benefit.

This will the turning point.

At this point get the next flight out of Bangkok.

Bangkok is going to burn when the red shirts arrive en masse.

This arrogant Bangkok elite think they can live in a bubble where their decisions don't have any bad consequences. You can't throw money at this and make it go away.

The red shirts will fight this to the death because whether rightly or wrongly they will view this as nothing short as another coup orchestrated by the Bangkok elite against the rural poor.

We saw in 2010 how relatively easy it was to burn a shopping mall down. They will want nothing short of total vengeance if they're denied their democratically elected government.

[heybruce]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

He made what clear? What proposals did he offer to eliminate corruption? He could have at least recommended the basics; All politicians, civil servants and military personnel in management or purchasing positions must publicly declare all assets and sources of income, all government contracts to be awarded in transparent competitive bidding, all contractors paid by the government make public their records showing where government money is spent, etc. These are the kind of impediments to corruption used in comparatively clean governments.

Regarding vote buying, what is he going to eliminate? Petty vote buying for petty local positions may be happening, but nobody has presented evidence that vote buying on a scale to influence national positions has occurred. The closest they've come to specific accusations of vote buying is in equating populist policies with vote buying. If that's vote buying then every democratic government is guilty of it. In Thailand 72% of government spending takes place in Bangkok (http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/05/10/thailand-public-finance-management-review-report). Since this is the base of the Democrats support, that makes the Democrats the most flagrant vote buyers of all.

[heybruce]

"Born to rule" is being used without being properly credited. It comes from the Banyon column of the Jan 11, 2014 of "The Economist" in which he wrote:

"Thailand could also do with a new constitution. The current one no longer works. The political system has broken and no one can see the way to devise a new one. The main opposition group, the Democrat Party, should contemplate a name change: to the “anti-Democrats”, perhaps, or the catchier “Born to Rule!”. It is boycotting next month’s election not because it would be unfair (though it might be), but because it would lose. It has not won a general election for more than two decades. Its supporters in the south are outnumbered by those in the north and north-east of the country, who keep on voting in proxies for Thaksin Shinawatra, an exiled former prime minister. The forces that the Born to Rules represent, including much of Thailand’s traditional elite, find this impossible to accept. They are openly campaigning for what amounts to dictatorship, though they do not call it that. Democracy has not worked for the Democrats."

The point of the column is that young democracies don't become mature democracies unless elections are fair and the losers accept the outcome of elections, learn from the experience and try do a better job of appealing to the voters in the next election. While Thailand's elections haven't been perfect they have generally reflected the preference of the majority of voters. The Democrats need to accept this.

I know what the response will be: "Thaksin is corrupt", "Yingluck is a puppet", "Suthep is a hero". Accusations don't solve the problem. Until all parties in Thailand respect the outcome of elections it will never develop into a mature democracy with stable government.

[cocopops]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

He made what clear? What proposals did he offer to eliminate corruption? He could have at least recommended the basics; All politicians, civil servants and military personnel in management or purchasing positions must publicly declare all assets and sources of income, all government contracts to be awarded in transparent competitive bidding, all contractors paid by the government make public their records showing where government money is spent, etc. These are the kind of impediments to corruption used in comparatively clean governments.

Regarding vote buying, what is he going to eliminate? Petty vote buying for petty local positions may be happening, but nobody has presented evidence that vote buying on a scale to influence national positions has occurred. The closest they've come to specific accusations of vote buying is in equating populist policies with vote buying. If that's vote buying then every democratic government is guilty of it. In Thailand 72% of government spending takes place in Bangkok (http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/05/10/thailand-public-finance-management-review-report). Since this is the base of the Democrats support, that makes the Democrats the most flagrant vote buyers of all.

The most charitable explanation I can come up with is that it's not purely about reform of the law but also a purge of PT loyalists from the civil service and other branches of government. Perhaps that's necessary. I imagine many supporters of the protests would see it as a legitimate goal.

If it were simply about reform of the law, then it's hard to see why the details haven't been made available. You do not need to control the government in order to come up with a set of proposals for legal reform...

[heybruce]

Some Thai visa members have such blind hatred of the Shins that they seem to have lost perspective on what will come next. Suthep, hardly a paragon of virtue, has offered nothing other than “reform” and that those who will enact this reform will be “good people”. Shin haters, take a step back and ask yourselves who will provide the checks and balances for these ‘good people’. They will be the government, there will be no opposition, they have offered no indication as to what their agenda will be, there has been no time line for this change to take place, there will be no way for the public to remove them ‘from office’, how can this be acceptable to anyone?

With regards to corruption, well anyone who was here pre-2001 will know that corruption was already alive and well in Thailand, Thaksin did not invent corruption. Do you really think that ‘the people who own Thailand’, the people who put Suthep forward for his ‘crusade’ are going to change their ways? Put aside your hatred of the Shins and ask yourself, will an unelected government, with no opposition, with an undisclosed manifesto and an unrestricted time line, be better than an elected government that can be removed at the ballot box every four years. Be Careful What You Wish For!

No he made it very clear:

Reforms to reduce corruption and get rid of vote buying for 1-1.5 years MAXIMUM.

Than all the members of this government will get banned for 5 years from politics (to prevent that they abuse their position).

He himself will stop with politics..so no one will have to worry about him getting dictator.

And as you worry about no opposition: You noticed if this elections would be declared as legal, we would have the Shin clan without opposition. Having them for 4 years you can be sure there won't be any opposition in future...and no independence courts.

So with all your worries about the Suthep plan.....everything will be worse if the Shins win.

He made what clear? What proposals did he offer to eliminate corruption? He could have at least recommended the basics; All politicians, civil servants and military personnel in management or purchasing positions must publicly declare all assets and sources of income, all government contracts to be awarded in transparent competitive bidding, all contractors paid by the government make public their records showing where government money is spent, etc. These are the kind of impediments to corruption used in comparatively clean governments.

Regarding vote buying, what is he going to eliminate? Petty vote buying for petty local positions may be happening, but nobody has presented evidence that vote buying on a scale to influence national positions has occurred. The closest they've come to specific accusations of vote buying is in equating populist policies with vote buying. If that's vote buying then every democratic government is guilty of it. In Thailand 72% of government spending takes place in Bangkok (http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/05/10/thailand-public-finance-management-review-report). Since this is the base of the Democrats support, that makes the Democrats the most flagrant vote buyers of all.

The most charitable explanation I can come up with is that it's not purely about reform of the law but also a purge of PT loyalists from the civil service and other branches of government. Perhaps that's necessary. I imagine many supporters of the protests would see it as a legitimate goal.

If it were simply about reform of the law, then it's hard to see why the details haven't been made available. You do not need to control the government in order to come up with a set of proposals for legal reform...

What right does a member of the losing party have to purge the government of supporters of the winning party? That's not how democracy works.

The "misconduct" charge levied against over 300 PM's and senators is that they voted to change the constitution, which is not a crime in any other democracy that I know of. Even if it is illegal in Thailand, I consider it an insignificant crime compared to leading a lawless street mob attempting to shut down the government.

A point I should have added to my original post: Bangkok receiving 72% of government spending represents a decline. According to the online edition of The Economist when Thaksin first took office 90% of Thailand's government spending occurred in Bangkok. Thaksin shifted spending to the poor areas and reduced Bangkok's share of the budget to 75% http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21595453-both-sides-stand-must-back-down-or-risk-their-countrys-disintegration-way-out. This explains why he is so popular in the north and northeast and why Bangkok's traditional elite loath him. This also explains why the Democrats can't win a fair democratic election; they can't offer additional spending in Thailand's still undeserved areas where the majority of the voters live without further reducing Bangkok's still bloated share of government money, and Bangkok is their base of support.

If the Shinawatra's are removed from politics the Democrats still won't be able to win. The huge imbalance if government spending that Thaksin took advantage of still exists, and someone else will use this opening. Hopefully someone much more competent than Yingluck, and someone will be allowed to work without dealing with street mobs.

[3NUMBAS]

more disobedience , more fighting ,more demos ,more aggravation ,more of the same because the disenfranchised and BKK elite will just keep on fighting.

the poor of thailand have no chance to better themselves against the greedy swines who want the lot for themselves

[The Deerhunter]

The Civil Court has given the army a means to judge if a line has been crossed.

Very good point.

And as much as the army's job should be to protect the nation from external threats, I hate to say it but I trust them more than the BIB.

[heybruce]

The Civil Court has given the army a means to judge if a line has been crossed.

Very good point.

And as much as the army's job should be to protect the nation from external threats, I hate to say it but I trust them more than the BIB.

Assuming the next coup will be bloodless is optimistic, and assuming all will be well afterwards is naive. I posted this on another topic:

Check out the article "Not a vote for the generals" in the April 23, 2007 edition of The Economist at www.economist.com. The 1997 constitution was written to create stronger political parties and end the weak, short lived coalition governments. The 2006 coup toppled a long serving (by Thailand standards) prime minister that kept winning elections. The military junta that followed wrote the current constitution with the intent of weakening democratic institutions, which led to the current mess. Still think a military coup is a good idea?

If so, consider this; the 2006 coup took place before social media and internet capable smartphones were ubiquitous, and was very carefully planned and executed to prevent the military from fracturing and fighting itself. In addition, one consequence of corruption in the military is that the rich and middle class buy draft exemptions for their sons, resulting in a military based on a conscripted force of young men from poor families, many of them redshirt supporters. All those young soldiers with smartphones means that dissension in the ranks caused by a coup could be quickly disseminated and lead to rebellion in the ranks. If that happens it's difficult to see where it will lead, but it won't be good for Thailand.

The generals realize all this and don't want to take the risk. I think Suthep is trying to cause enough chaos in the streets of Bangkok to force a military coup. If so, he is playing a very dangerous game.

[Mister Fixit]

Good luck Yingluck Don't let the Thugs get their way

set up your government in Chaing Mai

so another government can be set up in Bangkok

then the two of you can see who is the best government

and the people can get back to being happy again

Better still, set up your Thai Government in Dubai. There's already one there ...

[AbuBacon]

Far off the mark. This will go on for a very long time. Hope your business is robust because its going to sting where it really hurts. Thai or farang... Hard times ahead for all....

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