Thai army chief cautions nation may 'collapse' as violence escalates

[george]

Thai army chief cautions nation may 'collapse' as violence escalates

by Apilaporn VECHAKIJ

BANGKOK, February 24, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's army chief warned Monday the country risks "collapse" unless it pulls back from escalating violence after attacks in recent days left three children dead in the kingdom's worst political unrest since 2010.

Twenty-one people have now been killed and more than 700 wounded in violence linked to almost four months of anti-government demonstrations.

Protesters want to unseat Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and dilute the influence on Thai politics of her billionaire brother Thaksin, a former premier who lives in exile to avoid jail in Thailand for corruption.

A brother and sister, aged four and six respectively, and a 59-year-old woman died after a grenade attack on Sunday afternoon on a busy Bangkok shopping district.
Police said the grenade was fired into the crowd by unknown attackers from an M79 shoulder-held launcher.

They said an officer also died on Monday, nearly a week after being shot in the head in a gunbattle with protesters in Bangkok's historic heart, a stone's throw from the city's backpacker zone, which killed five others -- including another policeman.

Attacks have mainly been mounted in Bangkok, although a drive-by shooting late Saturday on a protest rally in the eastern province of Trat killed a five-year-old girl.

The current unrest is the most severe in the bitterly divided kingdom since protests by Thaksin-allied "Red Shirts" against a previous government in 2010 sparked clashes and a military crackdown that left more than 90 people dead.

"As days go by, there will be more violence until it cannot be controlled," army chief Prayut Chan-O-Cha warned in a rare televised live speech.

"If losses continue, the country will collapse for sure and nobody will win or lose," he said.
Prayut urged reconciliation and talks. He said troops are "ready to do their duty" but "do not want to use force and weapons to unnecessarily fight with the Thai people".
He did not elaborate.

Supporters of Thaksin have accused the demonstrators of trying to incite the military to seize power again, in a country which has seen 18 successful or attempted coups since 1932.

The army chief's comments are closely scrutinised for signs of possible intervention.

- Violence 'hard to control'-

The head of the government's security response to the protests also predicted more unrest.

"From now on violence will keep happening, for sure, so anyone who is not involved in the protests should not go to them," said Labour Minister Chalerm Yubamrung. "I accept that it is hard to control."

The government says it has been hamstrung by a court ruling last week banning it from using force to disperse peaceful protesters.

Authorities say semi-automatic weapons fired at them last week indicate the protesters have heavily armed support, while television footage has shown apparent protesters firing handguns in clashes.

The shocking deaths of the three children over the weekend earned swift condemnation from UN chief Ban Ki-Moon. Prime Minister Yingluck labelled them "terrorist acts".

The UN children's fund UNICEF also urged protesters to keep children away from the rallies, which have for many weeks been treated as boisterous family occasions.

Yingluck spent Monday inspecting local produce in a province 150 kilometres (90 miles) east of Bangkok, in a move seized on by her opponents as a sign she is on the run.

But a government spokeswoman told AFP she would return to Bangkok by the evening.

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, who as deputy premier at the time oversaw the 2010 crackdown on the

Red Shirts, said the government bore responsibility for the weekend violence.

"We use peaceful tactics... in past four months, we have never created any violence," he told a rally.

Hatred for Thaksin drives the anti-government movement. Protesters allege he uses Yingluck as a proxy to run the government and has fostered widespread corruption, including buying elections wins for the Shinawatra family.

They want to topple Yingluck and install an unelected "people's council" to run the country to oversee loosely-defined reforms, before new elections are held in around a year to 18 months.

But Thaksin and his sister enjoy strong support in the rural north and northeast and are expected to have swept a snap poll called at the start of the month in a failed bid to defuse the turmoil.

The Red Shirts have vowed to defend the government, but have have so far refrained from coming onto the streets.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-02-24

[IAMSOBAD]

Coup Coup CA Chu... name that familiar tune of Thailand.

This time I for one welcome green shirts.

T.I.T.

[Noi657]

A coup seems to be the only way forward! The two squabbling kids need a good hard slap!

[Bkkbound]

Then do what you have to General, take charge, bang some heads together... let the civil servants do the job of running the country,the politics can be dealt with later

[TVGerry]

When the general speaks, everyone gets nervous. But if the violence does escalate, the army will intervene to prevent the nation from 'collapsing'. So a coup seems likely.

On another note, it was nice of AFP to mention Yingluck. I'm glad the PM is serving the country in it's time of need by inspecting produce.

[EyesWideOpen]

If this conflict sadly evolves into long term protracted civil war, myself and I suspect

a whole lot of other people will be out of here in short order. If the military is considering

stepping in ( that is a joke if you do not know Thai history) , they should do it soon.

With enough bloodshed on both sides, positions will be hardened, and then there is

no fix...

[wave]

A coup seems to be the only way forward! The two squabbling kids need a good hard slap!

A coup is definitely not the way forward.

The army are completely hamstrung by the present situation.

They fear that if they leave the barracks that they may face a very real insurgency that they may not be able to control.

The reference to to not wanting to "have to fight Thai people" pretty much confirms this.

This latest statement is possibly directed more at PDRC rather than RS/UDD.

I wouldn't be totally surprised (after much deal making and hand-ringing) to see the Army coming out in support of the Government.

Edited February 24, 2014 by wave

[DrTuner]

I wonder if the coup will be done in the same slow motion as the whole show has been. It would take the soldiers two weeks to move 10m.

Just bring it on already, it's gotten boring.

[RubbaJohnny]

It won't be for shortage of generals

"The Thai military now has more than 1,750 flag officers (generals and admirals), a bloated number for a military of its size. Many of these officers - perhaps most - do not perform duties commensurate with their rank and many literally have no job at all. What they do have, however, is the rank, high salary and status among the rank and file that comes with the position of a flag officer

In 2011 USA withbases worlwide a war in Afghanistan managed to struggle by with 312,

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/5920:the-pentagons-biggest-overrun-way-too-many-generals

Booming happy safe Costa Rica has none but does have democracy coffee that is not three in one sadly it hasn't managed how to rent its daughters to old foreigners or become a hub of scams

A country that has not fought a war in living memory has twice as many generals as public libraries

http://www.kc.tsukuba.ac.jp/assets/files/030219a.pdf

The fact that it has chosen to stand back so far is remarkabe achievement.

Edited February 24, 2014 by RubbaJohnny

[Bkkbound]

A coup seems to be the only way forward! The two squabbling kids need a good hard slap!

A coup is definitely not the way forward.

The army are completely hamstrung by the present situation.

They fear that if they leave the barracks that they may face a very real insurgency that they may not be able to control.

The reference to to not wanting to "have to fight Thai people" pretty much confirms this.

This latest statement is possibly directed more at PDRC rather than RS/UDD.

I wouldn't be totally surprised (after much deal making and hand-ringing) to see the Army coming out in support of the Government.

I doubt very much the army are hamstrung, they are rightly wary of the international implications, the internal matters will be dealt with swiftly and ruthlessly, Taksins thugs would evaporate overnight once they realise the money tap has been turned off. As per the last coup, there will be flowers and smiles on the streets in response. The key to the next coup is taking out the shins properly.

[Jingthing]

Come on folks.

Coup vs. civil war.

Is that really a hard choice?

IF there is any hope at all of a peaceful compromise, PERHAPS stronger threats of a coup might scare both sides into action. Personally I wouldn't bet on that but the army chief is right, Thailand is heading down a black hole.

Edited February 24, 2014 by Jingthing

[DrTuner]

The amount of Generals in the army correlates with the number of golf courses. Thailand's got plenty. Is there a country left on the planet that doesn't have bloated public sectors ?

[HD 205]

Come on folks.

Coup vs. civil war.

Is that really a hard choice?

IF there is any hope at all of a peaceful compromise, PERHAPS stronger threats of a coup might scare both sides into action. Personally I wouldn't bet on that but the army chief is right, Thailand is heading down a black hole.

This was always going to end in a coup, judicial or otherwise. It was the goal of Suthep and the 'democrats' from day one.

Every court judgement has been against the caretaker government, not allowing the police to arrest people etc.

It's an absolute shame that a portion of the country would rather watch it crumble than to accept that in order for democracy to be achieved, your side can't always be in charge.

[Jingthing]

You can't blame only one side.

On the PTP side, they could have diffused the Thaksin connection controversy by simply divorcing themselves to a greater degree from Thaksin.

Does the PM have to be a close relative or an obvious puppet?

Thaksin has been MASSIVELY DIVISIVE for this country.

I also agree the opposition side is not pro democratic.

But how any westerner loves EITHER side is beyond me!

Edited February 24, 2014 by Jingthing

[Trembly]

It won't be for shortage of generals

"The Thai military now has more than 1,750 flag officers (generals and admirals), a bloated number for a military of its size. Many of these officers - perhaps most - do not perform duties commensurate with their rank and many literally have no job at all. What they do have, however, is the rank, high salary and status among the rank and file that comes with the position of a flag officer

In 2011 USA withbases worlwide a war in Afghanistan managed to struggle by with 312,

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/5920:the-pentagons-biggest-overrun-way-too-many-generals

Booming happy safe Costa Rica has none but does have democracy coffee that is not three in one sadly it hasn't managed how to rent its daughters to old foreigners or become a hub of scams

A country that has not fought a war in living memory has twice as many generals as public libraries

http://www.kc.tsukuba.ac.jp/assets/files/030219a.pdf

The fact that it has chosen to stand back so far is remarkabe achievement.

The forced retirements started last year. The glut of flag and field officers are due in part to the circumstances of the 60's and 70's, when Thailand's standing army was considerably larger and there was more than one officers' academy.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[HD 205]

You can't blame only one side.

On the PTP side, they could have diffused the Thaksin connection controversy by simply divorcing themselves to a greater degree from Thaksin.

Does the PM have to be a close relative or an obvious puppet?

Thaksin has been MASSIVELY DIVISIVE for this country.

I also agree the opposition side is not pro democratic.

But how any westerner loves EITHER side is beyond me!

But how any westerner loves EITHER side is beyond me!

Me too!

Thaksin has been massively divisive but you can't just blame one side for that either.

[wave]

A coup seems to be the only way forward! The two squabbling kids need a good hard slap!

A coup is definitely not the way forward.

The army are completely hamstrung by the present situation.

They fear that if they leave the barracks that they may face a very real insurgency that they may not be able to control.

The reference to to not wanting to "have to fight Thai people" pretty much confirms this.

This latest statement is possibly directed more at PDRC rather than RS/UDD.

I wouldn't be totally surprised (after much deal making and hand-ringing) to see the Army coming out in support of the Government.

I doubt very much the army are hamstrung, they are rightly wary of the international implications, the internal matters will be dealt with swiftly and ruthlessly, Taksins thugs would evaporate overnight once they realise the money tap has been turned off. As per the last coup, there will be flowers and smiles on the streets in response. The key to the next coup is taking out the shins properly.

I would be very surprised to see flowers and smiles this time round.

The dynamic of the current situation bears little resemblance to 2006 or 2010

The Army would have come out already if it was able to reach consensus internally but clearly it has not.

There are far to many variables this time for it to confidently act "swiftly and ruthlessly" and any attempt to do so may quite possibly precipitate a full blown civil war.

The Army has good reason to fear such an outcome as it could ultimately compromise it's historically privileged position.

[JohnThailandJohn]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

[Tokay]

This is not rocket science. There will be a military coup. Then the generals will eventually fight it out as greed and power is too tempting for them to sit idol and watch others around them reap the benefits of long term control, and there will simply be too many chefs in the kitchen.

[HD 205]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

[TVGerry]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

I don't think it was.

If they hadn't gotten rid of him, he would consolidated his power and right now, he probably would control the judiciary and the military also. That's everyone. And then Thailand would have joined the ranks of the Phillipines, Zimbabwe, Russia, South Sudan, among others. Countries who voted a dictator into power. This country would have been so screwed up. Scary thing is, there's still a chance of that happening if the Shinawatras get their way.

[HD 205]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

I don't think it was.

If they hadn't gotten rid of him, he would consolidated his power and right now, he probably would control the judiciary and the military also. That's everyone. And then Thailand would have joined the ranks of the Phillipines, Zimbabwe, Russia, South Sudan, among others. Countries who voted a dictator into power. This country would have been so screwed up. Scary thing is, there's still a chance of that happening if the Shinawatras get their way.

But, they haven't got rid of him.

That's part of my point.

I think people exaggerate Thaksin's aspirations, sometimes comparing him to the likes of Hitler.

He didn't need to control everything, as he already had the strongest democratic mandate in Thai history! (AFAIK)

I don't think anyone could argue that the military doesn't need some sort of stronger regulation and not have so much power also.

Edited February 24, 2014 by HD 205

[JohnThailandJohn]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

While he clearly had his faults and believe his goal was to be the ultimate life long leader of Thailand there would have been much less ugly ways to deal with the issue. Not to mention, he did a lot for folks in Bangkok during his time including the MRT and new Airport. Most of these people who get overly passionate and go from not wanting to kill a bug to cheering when a cop is blown up are not really effected directly much at all by which side is in power. Although I think the rice scam was bad, I actually can relate to the people in the North being more passionate as many more are directly impacted by who is in power (many free handouts vs. not so many).

I am just not sure anything can really change when closing down roads and things like hate speech and storming or blocking access to government buildings can be considered peaceful way of protesting and is often rewarded, especially when it goes on for weeks or months. On the other hand, I don't think the heavy handed tactics used in some places in the west to silence protesters is right either. Has to be somewhere in the middle.

[TVGerry]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

I don't think it was.

If they hadn't gotten rid of him, he would consolidated his power and right now, he probably would control the judiciary and the military also. That's everyone. And then Thailand would have joined the ranks of the Phillipines, Zimbabwe, Russia, South Sudan, among others. Countries who voted a dictator into power. This country would have been so screwed up. Scary thing is, there's still a chance of that happening if the Shinawatras get their way.

But, they haven't got rid of him.

That's part of my point.

Well if that's the problem with bloodless coups unfortunately.

[Bkkbound]

A coup seems to be the only way forward! The two squabbling kids need a good hard slap!

A coup is definitely not the way forward.

The army are completely hamstrung by the present situation.

They fear that if they leave the barracks that they may face a very real insurgency that they may not be able to control.

The reference to to not wanting to "have to fight Thai people" pretty much confirms this.

This latest statement is possibly directed more at PDRC rather than RS/UDD.

I wouldn't be totally surprised (after much deal making and hand-ringing) to see the Army coming out in support of the Government.

I doubt very much the army are hamstrung, they are rightly wary of the international implications, the internal matters will be dealt with swiftly and ruthlessly, Taksins thugs would evaporate overnight once they realise the money tap has been turned off. As per the last coup, there will be flowers and smiles on the streets in response. The key to the next coup is taking out the shins properly.

I would be very surprised to see flowers and smiles this time round.

The dynamic of the current situation bears little resemblance to 2006 or 2010

The Army would have come out already if it was able to reach consensus internally but clearly it has not.

There are far to many variables this time for it to confidently act "swiftly and ruthlessly" and any attempt to do so may quite possibly precipitate a full blown civil war.

The Army has good reason to fear such an outcome as it could ultimately compromise it's historically privileged position.

You attach far too much importance to the notion that the red shirts will react, its just won't happen, they have a lot of thugs who are in reality police officers doing the shins bidding.. there will be no civil war, there is no force other than the police capable of any sort of co-ordinated response and we all know how inept they are. The failure of the 2006 coup was not dealing a death blow to the Shins ambitions, this time round the delay may well just be a matter of giving him enough rope to finally put him and the country out of its misery.

[HD 205]

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

I don't think it was.

If they hadn't gotten rid of him, he would consolidated his power and right now, he probably would control the judiciary and the military also. That's everyone. And then Thailand would have joined the ranks of the Phillipines, Zimbabwe, Russia, South Sudan, among others. Countries who voted a dictator into power. This country would have been so screwed up. Scary thing is, there's still a chance of that happening if the Shinawatras get their way.

But, they haven't got rid of him.

That's part of my point.

Well if that's the problem with bloodless coups unfortunately.

Besides the implication of wishing death upon the man (little extreme!) - I don't think they should've gotten rid of him by coup at all.

They got rid of him by coup because they knew his party would win again in the election, that's why the coup was staged just a couple of months before the confirmed general election was to take place.

That's corruption.

[wave]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

I don't think it was.

If they hadn't gotten rid of him, he would consolidated his power and right now, he probably would control the judiciary and the military also. That's everyone. And then Thailand would have joined the ranks of the Phillipines, Zimbabwe, Russia, South Sudan, among others. Countries who voted a dictator into power. This country would have been so screwed up. Scary thing is, there's still a chance of that happening if the Shinawatras get their way.

But, they haven't got rid of him.

That's part of my point.

Absolutely.

If anything the 2006 coup has strengthened Thaksins position.

TRT's popularity was already waning by 2006 and it was looking unlikely they would have been able to win a majority.

The massive failure of the last coup has brought us to today and we are looking at joining the ranks of Syria, Ukraine and Egypt.

[Bkkbound]

Besides the implication of wishing death upon the man (little extreme!) - I don't think they should've gotten rid of him by coup at all.

They got rid of him by coup because they knew his party would win again in the election, that's why the coup was staged just a couple of months before the confirmed general election was to take place.

That's corruption.

A man responsible for thousands of extrajudicial murders under his war on drugs campaign, the death penalty is the lawful punishment in Thailand.

[HD 205]

Besides the implication of wishing death upon the man (little extreme!) - I don't think they should've gotten rid of him by coup at all.

They got rid of him by coup because they knew his party would win again in the election, that's why the coup was staged just a couple of months before the confirmed general election was to take place.

That's corruption.

A man responsible for thousands of extrajudicial murders under his war on drugs campaign, the death penalty is the lawful punishment in Thailand.

There was a lot of hard talk from Thaksin during that time, I agree and I am totally against him for that, the WOD in Thailand has always sickened me.

Do you hold those who pulled the trigger responsible or those in power who advocated the war on drugs?

[Bkkbound]

Besides the implication of wishing death upon the man (little extreme!) - I don't think they should've gotten rid of him by coup at all.

They got rid of him by coup because they knew his party would win again in the election, that's why the coup was staged just a couple of months before the confirmed general election was to take place.

That's corruption.

A man responsible for thousands of extrajudicial murders under his war on drugs campaign, the death penalty is the lawful punishment in Thailand.

There was a lot of hard talk from Thaksin during that time, I agree and I am totally against him for that, the WOD in Thailand has always sickened me.

Do you hold those who pulled the trigger responsible or those in power who advocated the war on drugs?

I hold Taksin responsible for unleashing the forces that created such havoc, murder and misery on thousands of families. He is a man that lied and bribed his way into power even in his first election 'victory', someone even blew up his plane in Don Muang on one occasion. He has never united Thailand, consolidating power through division, corruption , threats and bullshit. Thailand deserves better, the thai people deserve better, he offers nothing but self enrichment and trouble.