Danger of civil war: Prayuth

[whoisyourdaddy]

What civil war

Most Thai's could not care less who is in control or what happens as long as it does not affect them.

This protests being going on for months, see many Thai's worried or complaining?

Few thousand from each side may want to have a fight, while millions could not care less and want to get on with their lives.

They keep talking about Chiang mai being a strong hold of Red shirts, well why is it millions who live there, do not come out?! may be because they simply do not care.

My cook is "red shirt" all the way, yet he would never go to any rally or join any demonstration even when offered money.

Maid was offered 800 per day to join in BKK and also refused.

[mogoso]

Bring in the U.N. to monitor voting , indicates to the rest of the world that Thai's cannot be trusted, they better believe it ,they can't be trusted , I am referring here to the supposed ruling jack asses that run the country , as for a civil war , only time will tell , CIC Gen Prayuth has the situation on board, however any further escalation of violence will involve the military, others will not stand by and watch the country disintegrate before their eye's.

I have less faith and more distrust in the U.N. than any Thai solution

[SICHONSTEVE]

Sums it up really.

Surapong says he want Ban Ki Moon to mediate (get involved and try to arbitrate) - fair enough, but the goes on to say "I think that he will agree with us". What a dimwit he is!!

Then he wants him to sort out the election fiasco and RUN them for Thailand!!! incredible.

[Ricardo]

"Meanwhile, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul turned to the United Nations for possible help with Thailand's impasse". I thought big brother Thaksin once said "The U.N. is not my father".

He also famously said "Democracy Is Not Our Aim".

But perhaps "true-democracy" is different, or he's had a new thought, since then ?

For example, that they're all just useful postures or tools, to be abandoned once they're no-longer useful, like the rice-farmers ?

But that would be cynical !

Edited February 27, 2014 by Ricardo

[pmugghc]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

Many of your issues were discussed in this topic: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/702671-sound-of-ticking-time-bombs-is-getting-louder-for-yingluck/

I think the 'journalist' is wrong in his 1st March date (he probably thinks February has 31 days) and I agree that the 30 days expires on the 3rd/4th March.

At that point, power passes to the National Assembly but there are two problems: firstly, the House of Reps has not convened so only the Senate gets to vote on the next step; and, comically, even the Senate can't seem to vote because over half its members step down on the 1st March due to the elections on the 30th!

The National Assembly then has up to 30 days to come up with a solution, which would be the selection of an interim government to replace the current caretaker gov. They don't have to wait the full 30 days, but given the senatorial election I'm not sure if the remaining selected senators can act by themselves. the Senate also has a 50% quorum for voting, so I suspect they have to wait for the new batch of senators to be seated.

That then takes us to 3rd April. All senatorial bums will be on seats and a decree submitted for a new interim gov. This assumes that nobody messes with the senatorial election process! Then that would be a constitutional black hole.

I don't think a government can exist without any executive, so assume the caretaker gov will remain in place until the interim gov is installed.

I'm not sure this is 100% correct but is my best estimate of the near future

Thanks for those answers. But if we assume the following scenario:

1) House of reps don't get 475 valid MPs so they can't function

2) The senate vote end of March gets enough senators to function

3) Then the power is with the senate. 4) Now they can appoint a PM. Does that PM have to come from the elected MPs even if the MPs are less than 475?

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[SICHONSTEVE]

> I don't think a government can exist without any executive, so assume the caretaker gov will remain in place until the interim gov is installed.

> I'm not sure this is 100% correct but is my best estimate of the near future

I believe this is the strategy (for Thai values of 'strategy') which has been mutually agreed upon by the PTP government and the military. This approach gives the PTP an out, because they can stop riding the tiger without the loss of face associated with quitting, while simultaneously avoiding a coup. This is a win-win scenario for the PTP and for the establishment.

This is why Prayuth has sounded much more statesmanlike and less blustery in his recent public pronouncements. The PTP government and the military are triangulating towards this outcome.

The caretaker government must step down on March 4th so Yingluck will be the same as my wife and will hold as much power over the country as she has on this day (in the capacity of a Thai civilian) - only my wife is not about to gain a criminal record!!

Edited February 27, 2014 by SICHONSTEVE

[BestBitterPhuket]

There will be civil war if the sides don't respect the rules?

What rules because for 10years its all been made up on the hoof.

The rules in question are those that forbids the poor and working class to speak up against the elite. Those rules are not respected any more.

[soalbundy]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

Google it, never ask a Thai the time of day or the day of the month,if they don't know they will make up an answer,the one they think you want to hear, as the song goes...."it aint necessarily sooooo"

[thaimat]

"Meanwhile, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul turned to the United Nations for possible help with Thailand's impasse". I thought big brother Thaksin once said "The U.N. is not my father".

Thaksin did tell the UN Commission on Human Rights, when they asked him about the "extra-judicial killing" of 1700 people, to "mind their own business".

[focus27]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

Google it, never ask a Thai the time of day or the day of the month,if they don't know they will make up an answer,the one they think you want to hear, as the song goes...."it aint necessarily sooooo"

Sadly that's so true!

I learnt quickly to let the wife or girlfriend ask the question; she listens to the answer while I watch their face to see if they know <deleted> they're talking about.

The first phrase they should teach at ESL classes is "I don't know."

[hansnl]

UN should not intervene , it is not they're country or responsibility .

What does matter is that the government should not have rigged votes , a reform should take place since most of the parties are very influenced by bribes from Thaksin Regime .

"... it is not they're country..."

The UN has no country, it has countries that are members.

And one of it's job is to intervene between countries and sometimes factions within countries.

Thailand IS a member of the UN.

As to the english:

They're and international group, their job is to make peace more easily maintained.

And jokingly he said: They are very succesful doing that, are they not?

[ChrisY1]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

So I take it, here on Thai Visa every one has a comment

but know one knows the rules

are we not worse than the Thais we complain about something we know nothing about

maybe when the farang overseas wake up I will get plenty of answers to my questions

Correct...not too many Farang DO know the rules and regulations of Thailand...not too many Thais do either!

This is a forum, and TV members comment on here because it is a forum....everyone has views.

I suggest you do some research and find the answers yourself.

[focus27]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

Many of your issues were discussed in this topic: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/702671-sound-of-ticking-time-bombs-is-getting-louder-for-yingluck/

I think the 'journalist' is wrong in his 1st March date (he probably thinks February has 31 days) and I agree that the 30 days expires on the 3rd/4th March.

At that point, power passes to the National Assembly but there are two problems: firstly, the House of Reps has not convened so only the Senate gets to vote on the next step; and, comically, even the Senate can't seem to vote because over half its members step down on the 1st March due to the elections on the 30th!

The National Assembly then has up to 30 days to come up with a solution, which would be the selection of an interim government to replace the current caretaker gov. They don't have to wait the full 30 days, but given the senatorial election I'm not sure if the remaining selected senators can act by themselves. the Senate also has a 50% quorum for voting, so I suspect they have to wait for the new batch of senators to be seated.

That then takes us to 3rd April. All senatorial bums will be on seats and a decree submitted for a new interim gov. This assumes that nobody messes with the senatorial election process! Then that would be a constitutional black hole.

I don't think a government can exist without any executive, so assume the caretaker gov will remain in place until the interim gov is installed.

I'm not sure this is 100% correct but is my best estimate of the near future

Thanks for those answers. But if we assume the following scenario:

1) House of reps don't get 475 valid MPs so they can't function

2) The senate vote end of March gets enough senators to function

3) Then the power is with the senate. 4) Now they can appoint a PM. Does that PM have to come from the elected MPs even if the MPs are less than 475?

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Just a note, section 117 says that elected senators who step down before an election are still in office until a new senator has been elected. This means the Senate doesn't have to wait the full 30 days to install an interim gov.

Regarding interim ministers not being MPs, I'm sure they'll find a way round that, in their typically contorted fashion. In the end it will all need to specified in any emergency or royal decree.

So... not many days to go, and why are the newspapers banging the war drum when things could change dramatically once the constitutional dust settles? Yeah, I know, TIT.

[hgma]

we live in peace in the north east....and want to continue to do so.

We are NOT afraid of troops, police or coloured shirts.....

WE ARE AFRAID OF ROGUE ELEMENTS ON BOTH SIDES TAKING 'MATTERS IN THEIR OWN HANDS'

That's all.

Have a nice day.

[Cnxforever]

Prayuth just trying to get into the news again!

What civil war? - a few streets in Bangkok!

The rest of Thailand is Suthep-free - without any problems!

There are multiple more people dying on Thailand roads every year - than what is happening now with a few nutcases killing each other - and sadly innocent bystanders - in Bangkok - we don't even need to start to talk about the murders that happen every day in this country!

The army is helpless in the far south since years because they are more concerned with playing politics and business than doing their job!

Thousands of innocent people including women and children have been slaughtered and the carnage goes on day after day - and nobody cares - especially not the army - are Bangkok Thai's lives worth more than others???

Instead of talking to the press Prayuth should tell the gangster from the south to go home!

Suthep has no authority over anybody but behaves like he runs the "country" controlling a few road blocks in Bangkok.

The rest of Thailand does not give a damn about him Mr. Prayuth! Would you rather disenfranchise millions of Thais than to tell this gangster to go home?

Organize meetings between protestor's representatives and the government to have their voice heard as well - but not that idiot Suthep he is unacceptable - see what they can agree on and move from there. Organize new elections and let the Thai people decide who they want to govern them!

Anything else will lead to chaos and will never be accepted by most Thais - but maybe that's what the army wants? When there is conflict then the money keeps rolling into their corrupt pockets again - any excuse will do!!!

[Zappo]

The army at several occasions talked about a possible civil war. I believe they are doing this to pave the way for a coup. Then they can say "We rescued the country".

I personally do not see a civil war any way close and perhaps a coup is the best way for now to stop this madness. It is not a good thing but things look to escalate into something more evil.

[Fullstop]

We are all suffering from the conflict.

I'm not.

[NHT]

Most countries go forward, Thailand is going backwards rapidly.

A violent, biting dog, you can teach. A Thai, you can't!

Why?

Because a dog uses its senses. A Thai, their "arrogance"!

[NHT]

We are all suffering from the conflict.

I'm not.

Then hit the next pub, and celebrate!

[falangadang]

The army appears to be on the move.

Yesterday I saw 2 convoys of trucks including troops and some artillery moving from Chiangmai city along the Chiangmai - Lampang Superhighway at around 11 to 11.30am.

There was also a road block where they were checking all trucks traveling south,

As far as the army remaining neutral in a civil war. That will work only up to a point and then they'd need to take sides.

We didnt see any nuetral armed forces in the American Civil War, Vietnam, Korea etc.

Sooner or later it comes down to 1 side verses another!

[The Deerhunter]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

I believe she ha until 04 March to FORM A GOVERNMENT which is a subtle but different state from having an election. She has had the election but is at this stage not able to form a government out of it. Which of course was the aim of the protesters.

[SICHONSTEVE]

"Meanwhile, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul turned to the United Nations for possible help with Thailand's impasse". I thought big brother Thaksin once said "The U.N. is not my father".

Thaksin did tell the UN Commission on Human Rights, when they asked him about the "extra-judicial killing" of 1700 people, to "mind their own business".

The drugs war claimed 2,500 people (at least 1,400 completely innocent civilians), Tak Bai about 100, 2010 another 91 so you are approximately 1,000 short actually - not that that would matter one jot to Thaksin!!!

[The Deerhunter]

The military are already on the streets of Bangkok in large numbers, he is clearly giving the Shins the option to step aside before the deployed troops move to the next stage in which they implement court orders and impose a change of PM and take out the key red shirt leaders. Are we hours away from the decisive move.?

well well surprise surprise.... the end game. This is what the plan was from the first minute Yingluck was elected.

These bast*rds will never rest until they're back in power.

First it was the airport sit in then it was Suthep and his bunch of 1000 baht a day protesters.

the military can't make it too obvious like last time... so they have to pretend they're going to stop a civil war.

How can a few thousand paid protesters cause a civil war?

Simple, throw a few grenades into the crowd. Block people from going about their lawful duties.

Suthep is a paid puppet for the big Bangkok families. The OLD MONEY.

And all you twits believe Suthep and his mob will suddenly morph into a corruption free government?

Come on you don't really believe that do you?

Silly silly.

The military coming out won't stop a civil war - it will start one!

Suthep is a paid puppet for the big Bangkok families. The OLD MONEY.

Yes and the Reds are paid puppets of The Shins who represent a different branch of OLDER MONEY than the Bangkok nouveau riche industrialists that everyone likes to blame..

[SICHONSTEVE]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

I believe she ha until 04 March to FORM A GOVERNMENT which is a subtle but different state from having an election. She has had the election but is at this stage not able to form a government out of it. Which of course was the aim of the protesters.

She cannot form a government!! How can she do this when she has not been elected?

Her caretaker role must end on March 4th and then she is the same as anyone else In Thailand ie: nothing more than a Thai civilian!!

Edited February 27, 2014 by SICHONSTEVE

[mobiryder]

Lol shinawatra dismisses her/his own Reds? Lolllol

[siampolee]

BANGKOK: -- People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) leader Suthep Thaugsuban strongly blasted special security center’s head Chalerm Yoobamrung for saying that a statement by key red-shirt leaders’ to secede the country as just a political rhetoric.

Suthep said declaration made on the red-shirt rally stage in Nakhon Ratchasima province last Sunday to secede the country and establish “Isan Lanna” (Northeast-North) state is a serious threat to national security and blatantly violates Article 1 of the Constitution which states that Thailand is a single and united state that cannot be divided.

Violation of this article is subject to death penalty, he said.

He said such serious declaration of the secession of the country was made in front of ruling Phey Thai party leader Charupong Ruangsuwan, also caretaker interior minister, and other key leaders of the red-shirt who included Nattawut Saikur and Jatuporn Prompan.

The quote above I fear does give rise and in fact bestows credibility to those comments and statements by Prayuth.

When one views and hears such statements as made by the Red Shirt leadership at a rally yesterday the more one is inclined to believe that which Prayuth is saying is far more a true fact as opposed to a speculative rhetoric.

[kikoman]

Anti government posters keep (beating the dead horse of corruption) The NACC found no corruption on Yingluck at all, what other reason is behind the "Negligence" charge, There is a world of difference in a Corruption charge and a Negligence charge.

The only way out of this mess the military allowed to happen, is a free, transparent election overseen by the UN., to guarantee all have a right to vote their belief, I for one have always stated that whoever is the will of the majority of Thai voters, Which party wins, I will live with.

Hopefully the country will not have to under go a civil war to reach that free and transparent election, as It is the only viable way out of the current crises!

Cheers

[HUAHIN62]

The military are already on the streets of Bangkok in large numbers, he is clearly giving the Shins the option to step aside before the deployed troops move to the next stage in which they implement court orders and impose a change of PM and take out the key red shirt leaders. Are we hours away from the decisive move.?

Read the article in todays Bloomberg. Basically the army can't intervene until there are widespread killings. The RTA leadership are under pressure of the soldiers and middle ranks not to take sides. The general knows if he takes the side of the protesters unfairly the army will split and we will have a civil war or coup on behalf of TS. The situation differs from 2006/08 and its much more dangerous. If the courts use a judicial coup like in 2008 we will see massive protest from the red shirts and BKK will be the site. If the army should act like in 2010 against these foreseen red shirt protest, we will have an insurgency war from the north (plus the south). There is only one way out - negotiations.

[HUAHIN62]

Anti government posters keep (beating the dead horse of corruption) The NACC found no corruption on Yingluck at all, what other reason is behind the "Negligence" charge, There is a world of difference in a Corruption charge and a Negligence charge.

The only way out of this mess the military allowed to happen, is a free, transparent election overseen by the UN., to guarantee all have a right to vote their belief, I for one have always stated that whoever is the will of the majority of Thai voters, Which party wins, I will live with.

Hopefully the country will not have to under go a civil war to reach that free and transparent election, as It is the only viable way out of the current crises!

Cheers

The problem is that Suthep/Dems will never allow the UN to oversee an election, because if they should lose the election and the UN declared it free and fair the myth of vote buying would disappear. The UN can however be used to facilitate negotiations which lays out a political roadmap. This road map could be a government of national unity (based on parliamentary number as before 2nd February elections), this government must identify and implement reforms needed before an election (18 months to 24 months needed). This followed by an election supervised by international monitors. Afterwards a new government of unity is set up to implement the other agreed reforms over the next 4 years. I would also like to see this government of unity rewriting the constitution and that a new constitution is brought to the people in a referendum. By rewriting the constitution in such away that minority views are protected, many of the issues that led to these protests could be taken care of. Hope it makes sense.

[kikoman]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

I believe she ha until 04 March to FORM A GOVERNMENT which is a subtle but different state from having an election. She has had the election but is at this stage not able to form a government out of it. Which of course was the aim of the protesters.

She cannot form a government!! How can she do this when she has not been elected?

Her caretaker role must end on March 4th and then she is the same as anyone else In Thailand ie: nothing more than a Thai civilian!!

Her caretaker role will not end as the elected PM of Thailand, she can only be voted out of office or Impeached.

Any other form of Judicial Coup will have dire consequences for the nation of Thailand, the general has announce in yesterdays newspaper, that there is concern within the military, by the pro government supporters in the military of the rumors heard all over the country about the military, attacking the Police to protect the Protesters.

The action of the police arresting two navy seals that admitted as being hired by PDRC as security guards, as this is the second armed navy seal team to be arrested in Bangkok, as the military units in Bangkok are unarmed and who rules of engagement at the moment do not allow deadly force.

Only enforces the pro government members of the Military, that the military high command is lying about their active participation, as armed mercenaries hired by PDRC. Could cause a public rift within the ranks of the military!

Cheers

Edited February 27, 2014 by kikoman