Anti “secession” banner emerges in Phitsanulok

[zakk9]

I must agree with the military...it is rebellion. How would the poor north survive without the intelligent people?.

Rice is a large part of Thai gdp but look how many people it takes and the return on investment?. Very poor indeed.

And only Chiang Mai is wealthy.

And who would gave the brains in this new north to run the country?

What a joke.

Marcusd. Via tapatalk

Not to say that they could survive, but there is a huge wealth transfer from the north and north east every year to bangkok.

Every company of any size in the country administers itself in bangkok and thus pays its vat and such there. Thus skews the GDP of bangkok up. If local authorities could levy more local taxes on businesses it would reduce this transfer to bangkok.

The wealth creation of bangkok versus the rest of the country is not as disproporionate as it appears.

Most of the industrial wealth is created in Rayong, Chonburi and the provinces surrounding Bangkok.

[pkspeaker]

if support for PT is sinking then crises over, the democrats can just run and win the election; but no one believes that the support for PT is now so low, as to effect their hold on power democratically, they won the last election in a landslide which means they will at least 'win' any election that takes place in the next 1or2 years

[Dogmatix]

Let them knock themselves out and try this. The North would probably end up begging to be a part of Burma and Isaan could go back to being a part of Laos again.

Agriculture including rice (and many other products) is actually only 10% if GDP but occupies over 30% of the work force. So it is hugely inefficient. The taxpayers' money that has been squandered (including the govt's bad debts) on rice production in two years is equivalent to around 3% of GDP and the only result to show is the destruction of Thailand's rice export competitiveness that will take years to recover, if ever.

If they form their own state(s) in the North and the Northeast ruled by Chinese and Southerner dictators (Jatuporn, Nattawut, Veera, Thida etc are all Southerners), Bkk and the South can let their rice rot and import what they need from India and Vietnam - better quality and lower prices.

Yea and the Suthep people will eat palm oil and rubber instead of rice and could drink red bull instead of water!

Cheers

There is rice production in the central plains (some of which would be part of Bkk and the South) and below Bkk in Petchburi and Ratchburi. Surplus rice requirements could be imported from Vietnam, India and North/Northeast but at global prices and international quality, not B15-20 per ton for substandard product. Thaksin could play whatever games he likes with his rotting rice mountain then.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Dogmatix

[LevelHead]

"hardcore red shirts declared to secede the country’s north and northeast regions to establish what they called “Isan-Lanna” state"

Like I said in an earlier thread. A landlocked "Isan-Lanna" state bordering with the landlocked metropolis of the PDR Lao would be nothing short of a economical dust bowl. The north are kidding themselves if they think they can get by without commerce hub Bangkok, the resource rich southern provinces and those other provinces bordering the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman sea.

Why would it be landlocked ? Lots of access to the sea from Chonburi all the way to the Cambodian border.

The north and central provinces generate pretty much most of Thailands GDP.

The north generates pretty much all of Thailands electrical power.

The north controls all the water flows through the country.

A seperated North/Central "Lanna/Isaan" block would have all the electrical power, all the labour, all the water and generate loads of money.

Without the Central/North block Bangkok and the south would have NO water, NO electrical power, pretty much NO labour - and soon all the factories would move out of Bangkok/South.

This is why Bangkok and the South get so upset about talk of a divide - they offer nothing and live of off the North/Central area's. power generation, water flows, crops, GDP generation etc...

All in my opnion of course.

They talk about Lanna plus Isan. Central Thailand is not a part of that. Neither is Chonburi. They would have no access to the sea, very little industry and the least productive agricultural areas.

I think you are not on the ball here in regards to what has been discussed in many places.

Take a look at the map on the link below :

http://www.correntewire.com/random_observations_on_the_situation_in_thailand

That map shows the often of late dsicussed split. A northern red coloured "Siam". A middle bit Bangkok and the South being "Thailand" and then the problem area in the south.

From that you can see the North/Central area has all the power generation, all the agri-land, all the GDP generation, all the water and all the labour.

Bangkok and the South would be pretty much useless, just some Palm Oil and Rubber sold to Bangkok traders to sell on - if they had an electricity and of course any water and indeed any labour ?

Of course this is being discussed purely as a discussion point, nobody is saying it will happen or has to happen.

All of course is just opinon and discussion.

Also interesting to cross reference the map on the link with a map of where 2014 Feb 2nd elections were successul and also the last election results. You will find the 3 maps similar in many ways.

[kittosoft]

Both side will suffer for the next 5/10 years. A sudden lost of labours in the south /central area. A sudden increase in jobless ppl in the nuea/issan area. Plus lots of families are separated.... hope it never happens

[Thai at Heart]

Let them knock themselves out and try this. The North would probably end up begging to be a part of Burma and Isaan could go back to being a part of Laos again.

Agriculture including rice (and many other products) is actually only 10% if GDP but occupies over 30% of the work force. So it is hugely inefficient. The taxpayers' money that has been squandered (including the govt's bad debts) on rice production in two years is equivalent to around 3% of GDP and the only result to show is the destruction of Thailand's rice export competitiveness that will take years to recover, if ever.

If they form their own state(s) in the North and the Northeast ruled by Chinese and Southerner dictators (Jatuporn, Nattawut, Veera, Thida etc are all Southerners), Bkk and the South can let their rice rot and import what they need from India and Vietnam - better quality and lower prices.

Tourism is supposedly only 8% of GDP but employees another 15%.

All this stuff could be solved if local governments could impose more local taxes. The rice/sugrmar/paper is grown and processed in isaan but the export invoice is generated in bangkok.

Rayong should be the richest town in thailand by a very long way but it definitely isn't. This endless patronage to bangkok can and should be stopped.

[zakk9]

Rice production is totally irrelevant other than to keep people occupied, as has been shown by the ongoing crisis. The rice can be imported for lower prices than what it costs to grow it in Thailand. To include Eastern Seabord and the provinces around Bangkok in a Lanna-Isan state is also impossible. The owners of the industry, foreign as well as local, in those areas are not supporting the reds to put it mildly, and would move to other provinces sooner rather than later, leaving few industrial work opportunities.

[zakk9]

Let them knock themselves out and try this. The North would probably end up begging to be a part of Burma and Isaan could go back to being a part of Laos again.

Agriculture including rice (and many other products) is actually only 10% if GDP but occupies over 30% of the work force. So it is hugely inefficient. The taxpayers' money that has been squandered (including the govt's bad debts) on rice production in two years is equivalent to around 3% of GDP and the only result to show is the destruction of Thailand's rice export competitiveness that will take years to recover, if ever.

If they form their own state(s) in the North and the Northeast ruled by Chinese and Southerner dictators (Jatuporn, Nattawut, Veera, Thida etc are all Southerners), Bkk and the South can let their rice rot and import what they need from India and Vietnam - better quality and lower prices.

Tourism is supposedly only 8% of GDP but employees another 15%.

All this stuff could be solved if local governments could impose more local taxes. The rice/sugrmar/paper is grown and processed in isaan but the export invoice is generated in bangkok.

Rayong should be the richest town in thailand by a very long way but it definitely isn't. This endless patronage to bangkok can and should be stopped.

There are several reasons why money isn't ending up in Rayong. One is that many of the companies are registered in Bangkok. Another is that many of the companies, particularly the largest ones, are foreign and have tax benefits under BOI regulations. A third is that most of the workers come from other parts of Thailand, mainly Isan, and don't spend much in Rayong, but send money home every month. A fourth is that tax levels are far too low on Thailand. Add to that a big portion of corruption, and you have a formula for slow development.

Look at Pattaya also. The city should be flooded with money, but they don't even have proper public hospital capacity for its citizens, no public buses, no main buss station...

Edited February 28, 2014 by zakk9

[nong38]

"hardcore red shirts declared to secede the country’s north and northeast regions to establish what they called “Isan-Lanna” state"

Like I said in an earlier thread. A landlocked "Isan-Lanna" state bordering with the landlocked metropolis of the PDR Lao would be nothing short of a economical dust bowl. The north are kidding themselves if they think they can get by without commerce hub Bangkok, the resource rich southern provinces and those other provinces bordering the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman sea.

And that says everything about the brains behind this idea and the mental capacity of the people who voted the last government in, they got what they deserved a bunch of dim wits.

[wolf5370]

An assumption being made is that following a split, Northerners working in the South would go "home". This is unlikely for the majority I would think - temporary/migrant workers, sure, but people working in hotels, bars, hospitals, factories, etc - why would they give up a job to go "home" to joblessness, especially when there is a possibility that jobs will be even easier to come by and possibly better paid as a result, to stay?

In all honestly, it's academic really, the military would never allow such a spilt any way so it is just a thought experiment.

I have said before when civil war was mentioned, there are more ways to skin a cat. Itb would be far better to devolve rather than break up - that keeps the ASEAN membership, currency, Monarchy, GDP etc all the same. Just shift all local matter to regional parliaments - and make up a central parliament from equal numbers of those MPs for national topics (such as federal law, military, immigration, BoT/SET related, central taxes, national police (FBI like for federal laws only), national ceremonies etc, and regional budgets) - split off (taxes/health/education/local trade/bi-laws/local courts/regional policing/Aggriculture/planning/local budget/etc). Then all are represented by the people they want at both a local and national level and the economy stays intact.

[kikoman]

Let them knock themselves out and try this. The North would probably end up begging to be a part of Burma and Isaan could go back to being a part of Laos again.

Agriculture including rice (and many other products) is actually only 10% if GDP but occupies over 30% of the work force. So it is hugely inefficient. The taxpayers' money that has been squandered (including the govt's bad debts) on rice production in two years is equivalent to around 3% of GDP and the only result to show is the destruction of Thailand's rice export competitiveness that will take years to recover, if ever.

If they form their own state(s) in the North and the Northeast ruled by Chinese and Southerner dictators (Jatuporn, Nattawut, Veera, Thida etc are all Southerners), Bkk and the South can let their rice rot and import what they need from India and Vietnam - better quality and lower prices.

Tourism is supposedly only 8% of GDP but employees another 15%.

All this stuff could be solved if local governments could impose more local taxes. The rice/sugrmar/paper is grown and processed in isaan but the export invoice is generated in bangkok.

Rayong should be the richest town in thailand by a very long way but it definitely isn't. This endless patronage to bangkok can and should be stopped.

There are several reasons why money isn't ending up in Rayong. One is that many of the companies are registered in Bangkok. Another is that many of the companies, particularly the largest ones, are foreign and have tax benefits under BOI regulations. A third is that most of the workers come from other parts of Thailand, mainly Isan, and don't spend much in Rayong, but send money home every month. A fourth is that tax levels are far too low on Thailand. Add to that a big portion of corruption, and you have a formula for slow development.

Look at Pattaya also. The city should be flooded with money, but they don't even have proper public hospital capacity for its citizens, no public buses, no main buss station...

There is no need for public bus company in Pattaya, as that is the easiest town to go anywhere in the city with a minimum of waiting for transportation! The only reason a public bus system would improve road condition is Pattaya is to deal with its congested traffic and rid the city of an large unnecessary fleet of baht buses.

Funny a few months ago when I was there in Pattaya I arrived and departed Pattaya at the main Bus station!

Cheers

[Thai at Heart]

Let them knock themselves out and try this. The North would probably end up begging to be a part of Burma and Isaan could go back to being a part of Laos again.

Agriculture including rice (and many other products) is actually only 10% if GDP but occupies over 30% of the work force. So it is hugely inefficient. The taxpayers' money that has been squandered (including the govt's bad debts) on rice production in two years is equivalent to around 3% of GDP and the only result to show is the destruction of Thailand's rice export competitiveness that will take years to recover, if ever.

If they form their own state(s) in the North and the Northeast ruled by Chinese and Southerner dictators (Jatuporn, Nattawut, Veera, Thida etc are all Southerners), Bkk and the South can let their rice rot and import what they need from India and Vietnam - better quality and lower prices.

Tourism is supposedly only 8% of GDP but employees another 15%.

All this stuff could be solved if local governments could impose more local taxes. The rice/sugrmar/paper is grown and processed in isaan but the export invoice is generated in bangkok.

Rayong should be the richest town in thailand by a very long way but it definitely isn't. This endless patronage to bangkok can and should be stopped.

There are several reasons why money isn't ending up in Rayong. One is that many of the companies are registered in Bangkok. Another is that many of the companies, particularly the largest ones, are foreign and have tax benefits under BOI regulations. A third is that most of the workers come from other parts of Thailand, mainly Isan, and don't spend much in Rayong, but send money home every month. A fourth is that tax levels are far too low on Thailand. Add to that a big portion of corruption, and you have a formula for slow development.

Look at Pattaya also. The city should be flooded with money, but they don't even have proper public hospital capacity for its citizens, no public buses, no main buss station...

That is exactly what I said. The money and wealth doesn't stay where it is created. It filters inexorably to bangkok.

Its like watching Starbucks in Europe export all its profit to Switzerland.

[Scamper]

This is an unprecedented situation. The minister of the interior was attending a UDD rally where secession was championed. The rally also called for readiness for an armed rebellion. The minister didn't admonish the leaders or the crowd. Far from it. Any other member of the administration would be called immediately to the prime minister's office ( wherever that is ) and sacked. But instead, the minister of labour, the head of CMPO, and who knows what else - shirks it off as mere rhetoric. Oh really ? Care to bet what the arena of red shirts thought ? That they were " just kidding " ? If the UDD were in opposition, it would be dangerous enough, but for them to be government is profoundly disturbing. From that same rally stage, the UDD attacked the independent agencies and called for the elimination of them. That is now the active campaign of the UDD. Yingluck is sworn to uphold the constitution. She is sworn to uphold a constitution that empowers the independent agencies. She is sworn to protect them. She has a constitutional duty to dress the UDD down, and to tell them to disembark from their calls to secession and to their attack on the legal checks and balances of the rule of law.

[kimamey]

"hardcore red shirts declared to secede the country’s north and northeast regions to establish what they called “Isan-Lanna” state"

Like I said in an earlier thread. A landlocked "Isan-Lanna" state bordering with the landlocked metropolis of the PDR Lao would be nothing short of a economical dust bowl. The north are kidding themselves if they think they can get by without commerce hub Bangkok, the resource rich southern provinces and those other provinces bordering the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman sea.

Let them!!! And when it does become an economic dust bowl, we'll see just how much the Shinawatras love them by putting their hands trotters in their pockets to help them.

Not a penny.

Thanks for that. I have to live here. Might make land cheaper I suppose but then there's the problem of currency. How would that work?

Then again I doubt very much that any of this has been thought through as it's just ranting.

[kikoman]

An assumption being made is that following a split, Northerners working in the South would go "home". This is unlikely for the majority I would think - temporary/migrant workers, sure, but people working in hotels, bars, hospitals, factories, etc - why would they give up a job to go "home" to joblessness, especially when there is a possibility that jobs will be even easier to come by and possibly better paid as a result, to stay?

In all honestly, it's academic really, the military would never allow such a spilt any way so it is just a thought experiment.

I have said before when civil war was mentioned, there are more ways to skin a cat. Itb would be far better to devolve rather than break up - that keeps the ASEAN membership, currency, Monarchy, GDP etc all the same. Just shift all local matter to regional parliaments - and make up a central parliament from equal numbers of those MPs for national topics (such as federal law, military, immigration, BoT/SET related, central taxes, national police (FBI like for federal laws only), national ceremonies etc, and regional budgets) - split off (taxes/health/education/local trade/bi-laws/local courts/regional policing/Aggriculture/planning/local budget/etc). Then all are represented by the people they want at both a local and national level and the economy stays intact.

I tend to agree with you that hopefully civil war does not visit Thailand, but if the powers that be in Bangkok come up with a solution that does not again invalidate the Northern vote in 2011, as that will cause a reaction that would involve a one way street to civil war.

You state the military would not allow such a break up. in the newspaper the other morning that we are not allowed to quote, the commander of the Army stated there was a split developing within the ranks of the military, because of the rumors that the military was helping the PDRC, and rumors that military personal was responsible for the grenade attacks on the police and that pro government supporters within the Army were upset.

The common practise of the rich is to buy deferment of their son's from having to fulfill their service obligations and the fact that the reds live in the most populous areas in the country. That the average conscript in the service are Northern rural soldiers who would not follow orders to attack your own!

So that leaves more of a reason to crack down on the protest and set up an election for Thai's to pick their own leader by the power of the vote.

The military will be forced to make that decision if they do not want a civil war, we do not need a civil war in Thailand!

[OutToGetYou]

"hardcore red shirts declared to secede the country’s north and northeast regions to establish what they called “Isan-Lanna” state"

Like I said in an earlier thread. A landlocked "Isan-Lanna" state bordering with the landlocked metropolis of the PDR Lao would be nothing short of a economical dust bowl. The north are kidding themselves if they think they can get by without commerce hub Bangkok, the resource rich southern provinces and those other provinces bordering the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman sea.

Why would it be landlocked ? Lots of access to the sea from Chonburi all the way to the Cambodian border.

The north and central provinces generate pretty much most of Thailands GDP.

The north generates pretty much all of Thailands electrical power.

The north controls all the water flows through the country.

A seperated North/Central "Lanna/Isaan" block would have all the electrical power, all the labour, all the water and generate loads of money.

Without the Central/North block Bangkok and the south would have NO water, NO electrical power, pretty much NO labour - and soon all the factories would move out of Bangkok/South.

This is why Bangkok and the South get so upset about talk of a divide - they offer nothing and live of off the North/Central area's. power generation, water flows, crops, GDP generation etc...

All in my opnion of course.

You know nowt, especially geography.

Chonburi or any coastal waters would never be part of the northern dust bowl area. They would be hundreds of KM from the nearest sea port.

The electricity generating boards that own all the authorities that generate electricity are located in Bangkok. Bangkok and the south actually generate enough electricity for Bangkok and the south. The North and Northeast are actually a major burden on consumption requiring top ups from Myanmar and Laos. The south would not buy any electricity from the north on principal and they would simply become self sufficient if ever needed.

Plus the electrical grid in the north would simply deteriorate because of lack of expertise in the north. Especially under a shin government.

The north does NOT generate anywhere near as much GDP as the south, in fact Bangkok on its own generates more of the GDP than the entire thaksinland could ever hope... In fact the Thaksinland area has been a massive drain on GDP year in and year out. Once trade is cut off between the two sides, within 12 months the north would be in huge recession and the south will boom.

Labour???

The labour will stay where they are, where the money is. That's if the south allows them to work there. ASEAN 2015 will cure any labour problems and will see much more skilled and efficient workers than the lazy isaans... why do you think the south has more migrant workers in construction than Thais???

All in all, your theories are totally flawed from end to end.

The major damage is that the north will have no access to the sea posts and will be in the same boat as Nepal because of its land locked status, and prices will rocket.

Don't bother mentioning rice.... we already have 18 million tonnes of the stuff. With enough wealth to import as much as we need. Most other stuff such as pineapples, coconuts, palm oil, seafood and fruit is in abundance in the south. We don't need yours thanks. But you may need ours.

[wolf5370]

An assumption being made is that following a split, Northerners working in the South would go "home". This is unlikely for the majority I would think - temporary/migrant workers, sure, but people working in hotels, bars, hospitals, factories, etc - why would they give up a job to go "home" to joblessness, especially when there is a possibility that jobs will be even easier to come by and possibly better paid as a result, to stay?

In all honestly, it's academic really, the military would never allow such a spilt any way so it is just a thought experiment.

I have said before when civil war was mentioned, there are more ways to skin a cat. Itb would be far better to devolve rather than break up - that keeps the ASEAN membership, currency, Monarchy, GDP etc all the same. Just shift all local matter to regional parliaments - and make up a central parliament from equal numbers of those MPs for national topics (such as federal law, military, immigration, BoT/SET related, central taxes, national police (FBI like for federal laws only), national ceremonies etc, and regional budgets) - split off (taxes/health/education/local trade/bi-laws/local courts/regional policing/Aggriculture/planning/local budget/etc). Then all are represented by the people they want at both a local and national level and the economy stays intact.

I tend to agree with you that hopefully civil war does not visit Thailand, but if the powers that be in Bangkok come up with a solution that does not again invalidate the Northern vote in 2011, as that will cause a reaction that would involve a one way street to civil war.

You state the military would not allow such a break up. in the newspaper the other morning that we are not allowed to quote, the commander of the Army stated there was a split developing within the ranks of the military, because of the rumors that the military was helping the PDRC, and rumors that military personal was responsible for the grenade attacks on the police and that pro government supporters within the Army were upset.

The common practise of the rich is to buy deferment of their son's from having to fulfill their service obligations and the fact that the reds live in the most populous areas in the country. That the average conscript in the service are Northern rural soldiers who would not follow orders to attack your own!

So that leaves more of a reason to crack down on the protest and set up an election for Thai's to pick their own leader by the power of the vote.

The military will be forced to make that decision if they do not want a civil war, we do not need a civil war in Thailand!

Yes agreed - it has been quite worrying, especially the Naval involvement - though of course the military services themselves are distancing themselves from the individuals.

With respect to conscriptions, I was talking to some Thai lads a little while back. They came from a village near the Laos border, somewhat east of where we were, Chiang Mai (in Nan I guess). They were both going back to take part in the [conscript] lottery - but told me they would not be conscripted. When I asked why, they said their village was always oversubscribed, so all the tickets in the lottery were safe. Apparently, the boys could earn more money and get a career with the army, if they volunteered, and that always surpassed the village requirement. They said it was the same in most of the villages. So, it would seem that not only the conscripts are mostly from the poor, but many of the serving regulars too.

As to cracking down - I think after 2010 and the fallout from that, the military have had their hands tied. They are caught between a rock and a hard place. Thaksin's familial nepotism upset the upper echelons of the military and intervened with their way of doing things, especially promoting and putting forward new top brass. There is no love for PTP there I fear, but the ranks, well who knows. They may not be subject to the same rhetoric they would be back home on the farm, but they mostly still have family back there. If the Reds are to be believed, and over 90 deaths goes someway to "prove" it, they had little problem opening up on the Reds from their villages back then; and if latest reports are to be believed, they are managing to find recruits to protect the PDRC and even attack the Reds again.

Duty is a strange thing in the military - it can take away the necessity for your own beliefs (or at least compartmentalise them off to the background) - training is such that and order is an order and is to be followed first and thought about after, if at all. That training works - and always has - its how battlefields exist and how good men have been part of atrocities the world over.

[kikoman]

This is an unprecedented situation. The minister of the interior was attending a UDD rally where secession was championed. The rally also called for readiness for an armed rebellion. The minister didn't admonish the leaders or the crowd. Far from it. Any other member of the administration would be called immediately to the prime minister's office ( wherever that is ) and sacked. But instead, the minister of labour, the head of CMPO, and who knows what else - shirks it off as mere rhetoric. Oh really ? Care to bet what the arena of red shirts thought ? That they were " just kidding " ? If the UDD were in opposition, it would be dangerous enough, but for them to be government is profoundly disturbing. From that same rally stage, the UDD attacked the independent agencies and called for the elimination of them. That is now the active campaign of the UDD. Yingluck is sworn to uphold the constitution. She is sworn to uphold a constitution that empowers the independent agencies. She is sworn to protect them. She has a constitutional duty to dress the UDD down, and to tell them to disembark from their calls to secession and to their attack on the legal checks and balances of the rule of law.

It kind of late for the opposition to start thinking of upholding the constitution when they have failed to abide by the constitution up to this point!

Also the Independent agencies you are talking about have not been so independent, and their findings are not unbiased, always on the anti government side and do not forget the Red Shirts are also peaceful protesters and the government is no allowed to disburse their protest, which by now is part of the rule of law in Thailand, a ruling made by its highest court in the land!

No! the government is not responsible for any action or words, associated with the Red Shirts that now fall into the category of "Peaceful Protesters".

Somehow to the anti government supporters those shoes do not fit very well when they are on another's foot and the socks are red!

Cheers

Edited February 28, 2014 by kikoman

[wolf5370]

This is an unprecedented situation. The minister of the interior was attending a UDD rally where secession was championed. The rally also called for readiness for an armed rebellion. The minister didn't admonish the leaders or the crowd. Far from it. Any other member of the administration would be called immediately to the prime minister's office ( wherever that is ) and sacked. But instead, the minister of labour, the head of CMPO, and who knows what else - shirks it off as mere rhetoric. Oh really ? Care to bet what the arena of red shirts thought ? That they were " just kidding " ? If the UDD were in opposition, it would be dangerous enough, but for them to be government is profoundly disturbing. From that same rally stage, the UDD attacked the independent agencies and called for the elimination of them. That is now the active campaign of the UDD. Yingluck is sworn to uphold the constitution. She is sworn to uphold a constitution that empowers the independent agencies. She is sworn to protect them. She has a constitutional duty to dress the UDD down, and to tell them to disembark from their calls to secession and to their attack on the legal checks and balances of the rule of law.

It kind of late for the opposition to start thinking of upholding the constitution when they have failed to abide by the constitution up to this point!

Also the Independent agencies you are talking about have not been so independent, and their findings are not unbiased, always on the anti government side and do not forget the Red Shirts are also peaceful protesters and the government is no allowed to disburse their protest, which by now is part of the rule of law in Thailand, a ruling made by its highest court in the land!

No! the government is not responsible for any action or words, associated with the Red Shirts that now fall into the category of "Peaceful Protesters".

Somehow to the anti government supporters those shoes do not fit very well when they are on another's foot and the socks are red!

Cheers

How so biased? They also threw out the Dems claim to overthrow the election - seems to me their rulings have been pretty fair. They want real evidence and not just rumour to place an order, that is reasonable and one would hope true of any civilised democratic judiciary. The present Government cut a lot of corners, and made the mistake of going into caretaker mode before finalising loans and other budgets, thereby disabling them from doing so until a new government is formed - this is the coalitions fault, not the EC/CC. Most likely bad advise, but that is the position they put themselves in. One has to go on more than the press headlines of charges dismissed, or case thrown out, to understand why - Tarit made a lot of impromptu and rushed cases through the courts that got slapped down because he had not prepared them suitably and had no real evidence other than his word. That results in looking like the courts are in favour of the opposition (including PDRC in "opposition" there - i.e. against the current Gov., not in a party political sense) - however, one could also say that the Dems lost 100% of their submissions in the same time period.

[RubbaJohnny]

The merits of the case depend on the context

If viewed as an amuputation,rebellion or following a conflict its a lose lose.

However an amicable negotiated seperation occured when Czechoslovakia seperated into two states.

I very much doubt local passions have the negotiating skills to achieve a mutually agreeable resolution when we witness the violent lengthy squabble over a garden sized unproductive patch at Preah Vear.

Who would get the Pichit Oil Fields the Water form the dams,who would inherit the rice debts etc?

In the UK the same debate is happening over Scotland in a democratic way.

If we look at most divisions of people ethnically same have produced varying results theUS rebelion seems popular with the rebels.

Korea Vietnam Germany Sudan a mixed bag.

I think many would just like to remove all the politicians offshore to Koh Corruption and allow the good to rebuild a damaged nation,restore trust,eradicate corruption, ensure state employees in uniform or not work for the Commonwealth.

Plan B a big bordello for scammers,impunity,lawless streets,mobs blocking airports,highways and passport offices.

[otherstuff1957]

All of this talk of succession is not going to go anywhere, but if it did, where would the border be?

Here is a map showing how provinces went in the 2011 election:

As you can see, this border would be quite irregular with '3rd parties' having a big say in how big the two factions would be. However, this real political picture is not this clear. Here is a map showing the province with strong majorities in Red and Blue and the mixed result provinces in Gray:

So, how would the 'mixed provinces' go? It would be hard to predict, but this results of the 2007 Constitution referendum might give us a clue:

I strongly suspect that the '3rd parties' in central Thailand would prefer to be part of the Kingdom of Thailand rather than the Republic or Issan-Lanna

Edited February 28, 2014 by otherstuff1957

[zakk9]

Useful maps. Thank you for posting.

[webfact]

Phayao and Chiang Rai police remove “secession” banners



BANGKOK: -- A large banner advocating secession of the country to establish an independent state was placed at a pedestrian overpass in Mae Lao district of Chiang Rai province today but was later removed.

The banner which reads “This country has no justice. Let’s divide and establish Lanna state,” was fixed to the side of the overpass on the Chiang Rai-Phayao road in front of Pakodam market in Mae Lao district.

After being alerted by residents, the police came to inspect and remove it.

The police suspected the banner was fixed by unknown number of people at night and were investigating who are responsible.

Same banner was also found at a pedestrian overpass in front of Central Plaza department store in Chiang Rai. It was later removed by the police.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/phayao-chiang-rai-police-remove-secession-banners/


-- Thai PBS 2014-02-28

[wolf5370]

I think it may be a misnomer to base the divide along directly political lines. In the unlikely occurrence of a split, there would be more than mere politics - stronger ties - familial and cultural. People up North, even in areas not so Red, have a strong Lanna cultural pride. People living along the Cambodian border, south of Issan proper, will likely feel closer to Issan than Bangkok and may well be fed up with the crap that lands on their door step each year thanks to arguments over the front garden to a Cambodian temple! People in the South may see it an a way out of potential central control (places that are self money making machine and not apt to share - Phuket/Krabi/Hua Hin perhaps/Islands maybe), and of course the deep South might be easily swayed with devolved Government or some such semblance of self rule or possibility of a referendum on self rule. This is also assuming the people would even get to vote where the line was drawn and not just haggled over by the MPs and other interested parties at the table.

//EDIT: Typo: The people will certainly not a get a "COTE" but they may get a "VOTE"

Edited February 28, 2014 by wolf5370

[Mosha]

Let them knock themselves out and try this. The North would probably end up begging to be a part of Burma and Isaan could go back to being a part of Laos again.

Agriculture including rice (and many other products) is actually only 10% if GDP but occupies over 30% of the work force. So it is hugely inefficient. The taxpayers' money that has been squandered (including the govt's bad debts) on rice production in two years is equivalent to around 3% of GDP and the only result to show is the destruction of Thailand's rice export competitiveness that will take years to recover, if ever.

If they form their own state(s) in the North and the Northeast ruled by Chinese and Southerner dictators (Jatuporn, Nattawut, Veera, Thida etc are all Southerners), Bkk and the South can let their rice rot and import what they need from India and Vietnam - better quality and lower prices.

Yea and the Suthep people will eat palm oil and rubber instead of rice and could drink red bull instead of water!

Cheers

Wettest parts of Thailand are in the South. Do you think they couldn't build reservoirs?

[wolf5370]

Let them knock themselves out and try this. The North would probably end up begging to be a part of Burma and Isaan could go back to being a part of Laos again.

Agriculture including rice (and many other products) is actually only 10% if GDP but occupies over 30% of the work force. So it is hugely inefficient. The taxpayers' money that has been squandered (including the govt's bad debts) on rice production in two years is equivalent to around 3% of GDP and the only result to show is the destruction of Thailand's rice export competitiveness that will take years to recover, if ever.

If they form their own state(s) in the North and the Northeast ruled by Chinese and Southerner dictators (Jatuporn, Nattawut, Veera, Thida etc are all Southerners), Bkk and the South can let their rice rot and import what they need from India and Vietnam - better quality and lower prices.

Yea and the Suthep people will eat palm oil and rubber instead of rice and could drink red bull instead of water!

Cheers

Wettest parts of Thailand are in the South. Do you think they couldn't build reservoirs?

They had reservoirs - they build housing estates on seven of them. However, water will not be an issue - and to protect against flood they could even damn main rivers on entering Thailand (from Lanna), causing problems North.

Such games would help no one.

[AleG]

I would suggest to those fantasizing about the idea of splitting Thailand to put down the box of Kleenex and start thinking with their other head... but it would be in vain.

People with the necessary lack of foresight and morals to cherish such an idea are beyond help.

[metisdead]

A post with messed up quotes has been removed as well as the replies. Somebody needs to learn how to use the quote functions properly.

[Mosha]

A post with messed up quotes has been removed as well as the replies. Somebody needs to learn how to use the quote functions properly.

The current quote function sucks. The old one was far better.

[culicine]

Let's see how long their little land-locked country lasts....