What would likely happen to the Yingluck government Wednesday May 7, 2014?

[george]

What would likely happen to the Yingluck government Wednesday May 7, 2014?
By Asiancorrespondent.com

Tomorrow afternoon [Wednesday], the Court will issue its decision regarding the Thawil transfer case. Matichon has outlined 4 possible outcomes per the graphic below:



Below is a rough summary:

1. Yingluck is removed, but the current Cabinet survives intact and we wait for the election

2. Yingluck is removed together with the Cabinet in office at the time of the Thawil decision [so non-Thawil which includes Pongthep] Cabinet Ministers continue as the surviving Cabinet and we wait for an election

3. Yingluck and entire Cabinet is removed which leads to a political vacuum

4. Only Yingluck is removed, but the Court doesn’t apply Section 181 and instead applies Section 172 and allows Senate to take place of House of Representative and to choose a new PM.

Full story: http://asiancorrespondent.com/122409/what-is-the-likely-court-decision-tomorrow-regarding-the-tawil-transfer/

Source: Asiancorrespondent.com 2014-05-06

[angsta]

They can't let the cabinet stay as well. They want them all out like last time. Fake leaders. No democracy. Bangkok elite get to rule until the reds rise up again.

The only thing that is guaranteed is that they won't have an election.

[Sunderland]

Thailand no have PM. Thailand no need government. Thailand happy happy.

[JesseFrank]

option 5 : Yingluck and the entire cabinet are removed, but since they have announced already that they will not recognize the court ruling, they just carry on as if nothing happened.

[The stuttering parrot]

Demroracy is the worst form of government!

Except for all the others!

[h90]

They can't let the cabinet stay as well. They want them all out like last time. Fake leaders. No democracy. Bangkok elite get to rule until the reds rise up again.

The only thing that is guaranteed is that they won't have an election.

Well the court follows the law. That the cabinet is evil is true but they can't remove the people not involved.

[h90]

Demroracy is the worst form of government!

Except for all the others!

yes but Thaksin isn't democracy

[lemonjelly]

let's start a book.... I go for no. 1.

[h90]

option 5 : Yingluck and the entire cabinet are removed, but since they have announced already that they will not recognize the court ruling, they just carry on as if nothing happened.

very possible

[Scamper]

There are a myriad of possibilities as to where the court could go. It seems that among the strongest is the possibility where Yingluck and the entire cabinet could be removed, and the power of nominating a prime minister given to the Senate - something that the constitution clearly allows. At that point, there would be a rush to elect a Senate speaker and nominate a prime minister by Saturday - when the present session of the Senate closes. Of course, if this option was taken, then Thaksin's influence would effectively be over.

[WhizBang]

There are a myriad of possibilities as to where the court could go. It seems that among the strongest is the possibility where Yingluck and the entire cabinet could be removed, and the power of nominating a prime minister given to the Senate - something that the constitution clearly allows. At that point, there would be a rush to elect a Senate speaker and nominate a prime minister by Saturday - when the present session of the Senate closes. Of course, if this option was taken, then Thaksin's influence would effectively be over.

Not really, he would mobilize his red mob to burn and loot the country. Remember what happened in 2010. That was just the warm up.

[FangFerang]

The reds are going to win the next election, whenever it is finally allowed to occur. That isn't a good or bad thing, it's just inevitable. Like all nations, Thais reserve the right to fork up their country as they see fit.

Sharing power, at the crux and unsolved problem in western countries too, does not seem to be in anyone's vocabulary here or abroad.

[Morch]

I'm just enjoying the thought of all them politicians (from both sides) not getting a good night's sleep.

Not like they're working for the money they get, but at least getting a bit stressed out for once. Plus time zone difference with Dubai must be a pain too - bonus!.

No idea if they'll actually remove her from office, guilty or not. Seems like the constitution is hard rock one instance, than gets rubbery on the next.

Seriously doubt there will be anything close to the "civil war" threats, if she's made to resign, though. Some violence, yes, pretty sure. Hotheads and extremists need to be kept in line. So far, every time they got dissolved or whatever, they gave a lot of lip, but at the end cleared the premises. Hope they'll stick with this tradition if the court rules against them.

More curious about PDRC's reaction if court says she can stay on. They do have the NACC rice thing as backup, so maybe will just wait, but would still be interesting to see how they'll treat the court in such an event.

[bigbamboo]

This being Thailand my money's on Yingluck goes shopping as the court delays it's decision for two weeks.

[rabas]

Demroracy is the worst form of government!

Except for all the others!

The same guy said:

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter

-- Winston Churchill

[Arkady]

The 4 scenarios in the diagram were lifted from Matichon by Bangkok Pundit (a red leaning intellectual). However, in an April 3 article http://asiancorrespondent.com/121268/what-happens-to-the-cabinet-if-yingluck-is-removed/ Bangkok Pundit argued in favour of another scenario. He accepted that under Article 182.7 the entire cabinet should be removed if the PM is removed for an offence under Article 268 (the wrongful dismissal of Thawil for direct or indirect gain for herself, her party or for others) and cited the example of the Samak cabinet that was removed at the same time as Samak. He pointed out that in the case of Somchai's removal as PM the cabinet was not dismissed because Somchai was removed as a result of the disolution of the Palang Prachachon Party of which he was an executive, not due to an offence under Article 268. On the other hand Bangkok Pundit argued that Yingluck and her cabinet couldn't be removed because they have already left office following the dissolution of Parliament (despite continuing to enjoy much of the trappings of office). That seems to be what Yingluck was saying in court - that she and her cabinet can't be removed again and will therefore continue to wield power on the basis that they are out of office.

Bangkok Pundit seems to have forgotten is earlier arguments and now thinks that a solution that removes Yingluck but leaves either the entire cabinet or the parts of it is possible. Perhaps he is now going along with Matichon on the basis he assumes the judges will come up with whatever ruling they feel serves "the elite" without reference to the Constitution or whatever compromise they feel appropriate. The scenario that he mentions as suggested by The Nation seems more likely than any of Matichon's - the entire cabinet being removed and the Senate being tasked to elect a new PM. There isn't anything in the Constitution that allows the rest of the cabinet or parts of it to stay on, if the PM is removed under Article 268. The court is also unlikely to leave a complete vacuum, or if they do, they will be facing urgent petitions from various parties as to what to do next and will be confronted with a defiant ex-caretaker cabinet that refuses to leave office which might force them to file criminal charges for contempt of court. Perhaps swift criminal convictions and prison sentences for contempt of court for the cabinet will be the only way to remove them, if they refuse to go. Even if they are sentenced to just one day in prison, they will be banned from politics for 5 years. The two Thaksin lawyers who delivered 2 million baht to the Supreme Court concealed in a doughnut box were sentenced to 6 months for contempt of court and had to serve all of it.

Tomorrow afternoon will be interesting.

[Publicus]

For cabinet ministers a contempt of court citation and a few days in the slammer along with a five year prohibition from politics isn't going to mean much when you're going to get kicked out of the country forever and your assets indiscriminately seized. So the government may lock itself in fairly tightly.

If this were about corruption Suthep would have lost his assets and so would have his land scam pals in Phuket.

It also becomes unmistakably clear Abhisit's pointed proposal was a drop dead offer and I'm sure the government and PTP recognized it as such from the outset. Hence the civil disobedience letter to PTP.

Neither Suthep nor the reds were ready for this to occur yesterday and today so it will take another 48 to 72 hours to see how things begin to shake out and whether movements of large numbers of people and/or troops begin to happen.

Edited to add the question of who is expecting the judges to meet their own time to convene and make their pronouncements? Noon wuz it? I think it's going to be a no lunch day.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Publicus

[roamer]

Of course in another country with an independent judiciary a not guilty verdict would also be possible.

[Skywalker69]

This being Thailand my money's on Yingluck goes shopping as the court delays it's decision for two weeks.

Bet she happy to leave, "The man in the sand" can´t force her to be PM any longer.

[anteater]

It seems that the ammart judges are set to send this country to perdition. Some pro-ammart people on this forum complain about what the reds did in 2010, but of course much more serious was what the military did *to* the reds in 2010, with the military assault using overwhelming force; and similar retribution has been going on against the forces of the left for decades.

Yet, one might ask, what did the Army do to the yellows when they took over the airport and Government House in 2008 etc? Nothing. And what do the police and military do to the PDRC when they illegally block streets in Bangkok and block elections in 2014? Nothing.

Clearly the PDRC are the most criminal group in the history of Thailand, yet because their leaders such as Suthep cannot be arrested proves that they are being supported (in their insurgency against the legitimate elected government) by the highest powers in the land.

Thailand is going down the drain, it seems to me, because the PDRC is out of control, and no-one can act against these anti-democratic crooks. This proves that Thailand is still a sub-developed country.

Edited May 6, 2014 by anteater

[smedly]

all of the cabinet removed - airports locked down to stop cabinet doing a runner - senate elects new PM - current cabinet plus DSI and police heads under house arrest - redshirt leaders arrested - team investigates were the Thai peoples billions have gone - jail time for those involved - army steps in to maintain order - reforms take place including massive reform of the police.................

[Torkmada]

I'm glad to see the BangokPundit finally made an appearance here.

Better than all the garbage from The Nation.

Everything…….every…single….thing that the Pundit writer is supported by facts and links.

The Nation has a lot to learn from this journalist (as do the TVF yellows).

[Torkmada]

all of the cabinet removed - airports locked down to stop cabinet doing a runner - senate elects new PM - current cabinet plus DSI and police heads under house arrest - redshirt leaders arrested - team investigates were the Thai peoples billions have gone - jail time for those involved - army steps in to maintain order - reforms take place including massive reform of the police.................

None of this will happen.

As soon as the first item is attempted (removal of the cabinet) all hell is going to break loose.

The anti-democrats simply cannot win.

The only questions how many people are they willing to kill before they accept their inevitable defeat.

[JAG]

all of the cabinet removed - airports locked down to stop cabinet doing a runner - senate elects new PM - current cabinet plus DSI and police heads under house arrest - redshirt leaders arrested - team investigates were the Thai peoples billions have gone - jail time for those involved - army steps in to maintain order - reforms take place including massive reform of the police.................

......appointed government continues to rule indefinitely no sign of any intention to hold an election, civil disobedience on the rise in North and Issaan, army becomes increasingly reluctant to apply force outside of Bangkok, possibly large scale desertion or even mutiny amongst conscripts, government writ no longer runs outside Bangkok, tourism collapses, economy enters a recessionary spiral.

Just thought I would finish the scenario off for you mate. But hey, Mark will be prime minister for life, and the economic collapse will mean that the girls will be cheaper, so for a lot of Falangs things will be looking up!

[noitom]

And the Thai drama continues to unfold. The Thais remain in their state of total self absorption and over inflated sense of self importance.

[moonao]

I'm glad to see the BangokPundit finally made an appearance here.

Better than all the garbage from The Nation.

Everything…….every…single….thing that the Pundit writer is supported by facts and links.

The Nation has a lot to learn from this journalist (as do the TVF yellows).

beat me to it. glad to see bangkok pundit on here, and hope to see more in the future.

[TimCM]

all of the cabinet removed - airports locked down to stop cabinet doing a runner - senate elects new PM - current cabinet plus DSI and police heads under house arrest - redshirt leaders arrested - team investigates were the Thai peoples billions have gone - jail time for those involved - army steps in to maintain order - reforms take place including massive reform of the police.................

Unfortunately, no real reform can happen until the whole military is reformed. Otherwise reform is just a word used to justify the grab for power and the money that comes with it

[tezzainoz]

In Thailand there are those who want freedom to give their opinions and their political policies any where in the country

In Thailand there are those who want a dictator democracy by only allowing what they believe in to be said

On T VF we have similar points of view by many members

Today is the day of decision, and nothing we say will make any difference

No matter what the court decides there will be those who will party and those that will hate

but in the end Thais need to learn from todays judgment

and many members on TVF as well

to do what you can for Thalland

Not Thailand do what is best for you

[Eric Loh]

Most international news reported on this day of reckoning and called it another judiciary coup by the establishment. They can see that our courts have again been compromised and partisan.

[binjalin]

Most international news reported on this day of reckoning and called it another judiciary coup by the establishment. They can see that our courts have again been compromised and partisan.

well it's the Chang in the room

even ardent yellow fellow's cannot claim this is not a judicial coup - every leader in all democratic countries can remove their Security Chief as they see fit - even if the replacement choice is unwise

it would be a good idea if they allowed the Pm to replace as he/she thinks fit BUT the replacement has to go through a committee (as in the US) tat scrutinizes the PM's choice

but to say the PM has no authority to choose the Security Chief and remove someone they do not trust is absurd