Post-coup diplomacy and the money trail

[Lite Beer]

EDITORIAL
Post-coup diplomacy and the money trail
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- West deploring Thailand's "setback" is just half the story

Thailand's diplomatic relations appear to have changed dramatically since the May 22 coup. The United States, European Union and Australia condemned the power seizure and, to varying degrees, downgraded relations with Bangkok. While many Thais view the coup as a gamble, realising there is no guarantee that much-desired political reform will be delivered under military rule, countries that are responding with strong-handed measures might be taking risks too - if they want Thailand as an international partner.

Bangkok has been pushed toward China thanks to Western condemnation of the coup, a stark contrast to Beijing's empathy. How much closer Thailand and China will be in the months to come, when the National Council for Peace and Order still holds sway, remains to be seen. On the one hand, Thailand's strong Western ties are long established, and trade relations are not easy to turn around. On the other hand, it's clear that the fresh estrangement involves not just the Thai generals but also a sizeable portion of the Thai public, who could have influence over the country's diplomatic direction.

Appeals for understanding and sympathy have flowed in a constant stream on newspaper opinion pages, the social media and even from the junta itself. There are extremely angry words, too. Both pleading and anger have long been part of the history of Thai-Western relations. The resentment is rooted in the perceived threats to political and economic interests on both sides.

With their effective information-gathering mechanisms, it's unlikely that the Western countries concerned do not realise the scale of Thai bitterness and anger. That they have pressed on regardless, seeking to ostracise Thailand, has inflamed negative feelings here further. Rightly or wrongly, Western nations have taken sides in the Thai conflict. Whether their position is dictated by democratic principles or economic interests, or both, it's a gamble all the same.

Why are so many Thais upset with the West's reaction? For three reasons: because the coup halted violence that looked like it could escalate into something worse; because this is a Thai problem for Thais to solve in their own way (however painful "the cure"); and, of course, because of a lingering mistrust of Western "motives". Many Thais simply feel they are being punished for trying to solve a problem that was threatening to get badly out of hand.

China has not turned a deaf ear to our complaints. While Western sympathies have tipped toward one side of the Thai conflict, Beijing has simply demonstrated that it understands why Thailand has come to this point. For that, Thais can be thankful. And because of that, Thailand's foreign-relations horizon is looking quite intriguing.

But, in the final analysis, oil and other valuable resources hold more sway over relations between countries than the ideologies espoused by their governments. Thailand's post-coup diplomacy might have as much to do with the energy sector as the fact that the country's democracy is "taking a break". Foreign relations are largely business-driven nowadays, which means smiles, anger, criticism or downgrading of military cooperation can often be merely a sideshow.

Democratic norms are often invoked among diplomats, meaning they tend to overuse and overvalue "democracy" as a concept. What's happening in the case of Thailand? Those still relying on textbook ideology for answers could get a better understanding by following the money trail.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Post-coup-diplomacy-and-the-money-trail-30237761.html

-- The Nation 2014-07-05

[shirtless]

I would hardly say Australia and the USA governments are in a position to comment they are both woeful administrations and really have no idea what is going on in Thailand.

[ramrod711]

. We have no lasting friends, no lasting enemies, only lasting interests. Winston Churchill

Sad but true, if Thailand is expecting sympathy in their quest to restore peace and happiness they will be disappointed. The perceived best interests of the U S and any other country come first, as they should. That is not to say that they are always correct in their assessment of their best interests.

[jaidam]

Is it possible that the US government does not understand they have bankrupted their country, and made the US less relevant to world politics going forward than outer Mongolia ? When China recalls their loans, Barraco Barner will be hot on the blower to Prayuth(and other Asian leaders) begging to borrow some dosh. So he had better keep on the general's good side.

[londonthai]

sadly, thailand doesn't have much oil and gas, it's not a middle east, so maybe it's about democracy and human rights? The west can live without thailand, it's bananas and papaya, and production of hard drives can be moved anywhere else in asia. Thailand can't live without foreign tourists, rice and agricultural products export.

but no, we will fight our position in global capitalism with more jingoistic nationalistic propaganda and posturing, how great and rich our glorious country is. And thai diplomacy with getting palls with chinese and cambodian generals

Edited July 5, 2014 by londonthai

[iphad]

The OP I'm sure will have many posters commenting on how Thailand is corrupt,nothing will change ,the Thai won't accept blame,they have to be part of the World & play by the Rules etc.

But the reality in my opinion is exactly as the OP has said it is.

The West, especially the US has a relatively long history as allies to Thailand but.......

Thailand sees the US as "fine weather friends" since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis & more so since the 2006 Thai Military Coup....... whereas China has been supportive.

[noitom]

China is coming for those Thai women, chickens, and rice.

[crusader79]

Is it possible that the US government does not understand they have bankrupted their country, and made the US less relevant to world politics going forward than outer Mongolia ? When China recalls their loans, Barraco Barner will be hot on the blower to Prayuth(and other Asian leaders) begging to borrow some dosh. So he had better keep on the general's good side.

"When China recalls their loans." Clearly you have no understanding of why trillions of Treasuries have been bought and how those markets work. Nor that two-thirds of China's wealthy have or are planning to emigrate, with the U.S. as first choice of destination. What does that suggest about the future?

[BSJ]

When it comes to many in the USA, it's....."YOU CAN"T HANDLE THE TRUTH!"

[selftaopath]

Perhaps some of the West's reactions to the coup is ignorance on how corrupt Thailand has become. And maybe it's ignorance how it has effected individuals, and seems to be sanctioned by recent Thai governments. Or maybe it is inconceivable that recent governments can and did so much damage to its own country and people for their own personal gains. Or maybe many in the West can not fathom that a military coup seems to be "the only way" to right this deplorable situation know as Thailand's way of being self serving (corrupt) to those who are influential and powerful at the expense of the poor/illiterate/uneducated and weak?

[londonthai]

Perhaps some of the West's reactions to the coup is ignorance on how corrupt Thailand has become. And maybe it's ignorance how it has effected individuals, and seems to be sanctioned by recent Thai governments. Or maybe it is inconceivable that recent governments can and did so much damage to its own country and people for their own personal gains. Or maybe many in the West can not fathom that a military coup seems to be "the only way" to right this deplorable situation know as Thailand's way of being self serving (corrupt) to those who are influential and powerful at the expense of the poor/illiterate/uneducated and weak?

come on, the military coup for the interest of poor and not the rich elite, who want's more control over the workers?

it's the poor, who elected their government, that's why it had to go

[FangFerang]

Overly simplistic reporting at best, based on saving face.

How would ASEAN react to a snuggly relationship between China and Thailand react? ASEAN members are almost unilaterally contending with China over their individual sovereignties in the S China Sea.

And the whole basis of the piece, that SO many Thais are angry at the West...is baseless. A staged protest against American oil companies with a whopping hundred paid attendees does not a social trend make.

Worst of all, there are no harsh sanctions currently under force from the West. If one reads between the lines it is a clear message "Do what you want. As long as you're not slaughtering each other and elections come back, there is no problem, really."

The West is obligated to wave a banner and sing a song called "Democracy At Any Cost" but one can tell when a politician is lying. It's whenever their lips are moving.

[Prbkk]

Thailand will NEVER take responsibility for its own failings. The 1997 crisis was , for years, referred to here as " the IMF crisis", even though the genesis of it ( and the ripple effect throughout Asia) was the failure of the Thai elite and military to manage the economy, the currency and to control corruption. FAIL. FAIL. FAIL.

Now we see the same xenophobic response, no one understands us, we're different. Progress in resolving these endemic problems is contingent of first recognising that they are home grown, not caused by anyone else. ...the nasty west forced us to turn to China. What pathetic crap.

[timewilltell]

Thais are severely hampered by the nationalistic nonsense they are brainwashed with. I have seen several articles trumpeting how Thailand 'will show' the West a lesson and fight back by not selling them their prawns or rice or whatever. A typical response from (supposedly) educated people who write this tosh that mirrors the thinking of your average Thai 'man in the street'

One might expect an understanding, even at some lower intellectual level, that Thailand in the grand scheme of things is largely insignificant. The GDP for instance of the US and a EU combined runs around 35 trillion USD compared to Thailand's 385 thousand - about 1% in comparative terms. China, Japan and Australia total around 14 trillion. World GDP is around 75 trillion, so in world terms Thailand contributes less than 0.5%.

If you look at exports, Thailand's top exports are Computers, Refined Oil, Automobiles, Rubber and Integrated Circuits, four of those five dominated by Foreign Investment rather than 'home grown' industries. Thailand is HUGELY reliant on foreigners and the investment by foreign companies the majority of which are from the US and EU and Japan. If it were not for the foreigners Thais seem to like to sneer at, then it does not take much to see where Thailand would be.

If you want an ASEAN comparable look at Singapore, granted benefiting hugely from the influence on it by the British prior to its independence, providing it with language, justice and governmental benefits that have set the foundations for the place it is today. That tiny place has a population of around 3 million in around 800 sq. kilometers of land, zero natural resources really yet produces around 75% of the GDP of Thailand with its 66 million people and HUGE natural resources. The average Singaporean thus produces approximately 15 times your average Thai with little to no land resources or natural resources to contribute.

It is a massive disparity and rather exposes the myth of how Great Thailand and Thais are compared to what they are taught and what their egos delude themselves with. I guess one day the eyes will open and reality will dawn, but not while the people are brainwashed into believing they are something they are not. In the mean time the nation should graciously accept the good fortune of foreign investment and concerning itself with eradicating corruption, revamping the education system completely, and getting its people working not only more efficiently but more innovatively.

When you consider the advances made in the last 30 years even, they are massive. In the same time what has Thailand done? It has improved significantly through courting foreign investment but that is a veneer to what is needed which is for Thais to be educated so they can achieve their full potential. Thais are born no more stupid than any other person so it is all a result of social (in all aspects) ill conditioning that leaves them near the bottom of the pile. Every person deserves an opportunity and the nation should be striving to provide the best it can. It will not do so by expectorating at the nations and Economic partners that provide its sustenance but rather by self-examination and an understanding and acceptance of its own problems. Therein lies enlightenment!

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

[pookiki]

Certainly western powers are no saints when it comes to manipulating global politics. However, I think there is a basic understanding of the mechanics of Thai politics. In western democracies, the military is subservient to the elected government and it's main duty is to respond to issues of national defense. The differences in Thailand are obvious and glaring.

[h90]

I would hardly say Australia and the USA governments are in a position to comment they are both woeful administrations and really have no idea what is going on in Thailand.

They know well what is going on....specially with some doggy Oil and Gas contracts.

And the USA really don't care about democracy....themself in a 2 party system, supporting the lovely democracy in Saudi Arabia and former supporter of the democratic Pol Pot.

[h90]

Thailand will NEVER take responsibility for its own failings. The 1997 crisis was , for years, referred to here as " the IMF crisis", even though the genesis of it ( and the ripple effect throughout Asia) was the failure of the Thai elite and military to manage the economy, the currency and to control corruption. FAIL. FAIL. FAIL.

Now we see the same xenophobic response, no one understands us, we're different. Progress in resolving these endemic problems is contingent of first recognising that they are home grown, not caused by anyone else. ...the nasty west forced us to turn to China. What pathetic crap.

And don't forget that 1997 crises were made by the same player that still holds power and are close to Thaksin (Chavalit now PTP leader, etc etc).

[love1012]

sadly, thailand doesn't have much oil and gas, it's not a middle east, so maybe it's about democracy and human rights? The west can live without thailand, it's bananas and papaya, and production of hard drives can be moved anywhere else in asia. Thailand can't live without foreign tourists, rice and agricultural products export.

but no, we will fight our position in global capitalism with more jingoistic nationalistic propaganda and posturing, how great and rich our glorious country is. And thai diplomacy with getting palls with chinese and cambodian generals

Thailand can get its support from Asia from China, from India, from Japan from ASEAN countries - it does NOT need the west or its meddling Shinawatra propaganda. Tourism from the West is 3% of GDP - it can replace that easily. Bananas and papaya was a stupid insulting comment and one that shows you have no grasp of the real economic forces in South East Asia. Another sour grape post because your criminal element have been taken to of the picture and for some reason you don't like it. Well tough - whether the Shin owned media in US and UK like it or not - the REAL power in our country has put things right and if the west doesn't like it - it can as you say "take a running jump at itself"!

[antimedia]

sadly, thailand doesn't have much oil and gas, it's not a middle east, so maybe it's about democracy and human rights? The west can live without thailand, it's bananas and papaya, and production of hard drives can be moved anywhere else in asia. Thailand can't live without foreign tourists, rice and agricultural products export.

but no, we will fight our position in global capitalism with more jingoistic nationalistic propaganda and posturing, how great and rich our glorious country is. And thai diplomacy with getting palls with chinese and cambodian generals

But it is the Hub of Hubs.

[patricev]

Thais are severely hampered by the nationalistic nonsense they are brainwashed with. I have seen several articles trumpeting how Thailand 'will show' the West a lesson and fight back by not selling them their prawns or rice or whatever. A typical response from (supposedly) educated people who write this tosh that mirrors the thinking of your average Thai 'man in the street'

...

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Whoaa! Quite a master piece. Nothing to disagree with other than to wonder: Did you really type all this on a iPad?

[ubonjoe]

A post containing a personal attack and replies to it have been removed.

[baboon]

If Thailand did decide to cosy up with China, what exactly would be the big deal in the grand scheme of things?

[klauskunkel]

Extrapolating on the OP, I come up with a more subtle reason why the "Western Democracies" are condemning the coup so much:

It's not really about Thailand, but about the perception of Democracy. Let's look at the prime example, as always the US...It's not quite a real Democracy anymore, is it? Conceived nearly 250 years ago, it has undergone many changes and evolved with the times, but is policy made by Senators, Congressman, President who are supposed to represent the American people, or is policy "suggested" to those lawmakers by corporations and "special interest groups"? And these suggestions are accompanied by "incentives"... So, 'democracy' is a label that fits many different situations, if you look at it closely.

Now comes Thailand, a democracy with it's own flavor...and it has a military coup that aims to clean up and reboot the democratic system. Wow, the West is in shock, no wrong, not the West, but the Western Governments are in shock - why? Maybe they don't want the coup makers to succeed, maybe they don't want an example of a country trying to get rid of it's own government's corruption, maybe it's bad for "business as usual", maybe they don't want their own people to take note and start questioning things outside the controlled and established framework of "checks and balances", maybe they have reason to be concerned...

Questioning things is important, questioning the status quo is more important, questioning those that can influence the way you live is the most important. There are no stupid questions.

Disclaimer: this is a fictional piece and no governments were hurt by its writing.

[gemguy]

Thais are severely hampered by the nationalistic nonsense they are brainwashed with. I have seen several articles trumpeting how Thailand 'will show' the West a lesson and fight back by not selling them their prawns or rice or whatever. A typical response from (supposedly) educated people who write this tosh that mirrors the thinking of your average Thai 'man in the street'

One might expect an understanding, even at some lower intellectual level, that Thailand in the grand scheme of things is largely insignificant. The GDP for instance of the US and a EU combined runs around 35 trillion USD compared to Thailand's 385 thousand - about 1% in comparative terms. China, Japan and Australia total around 14 trillion. World GDP is around 75 trillion, so in world terms Thailand contributes less than 0.5%.

If you look at exports, Thailand's top exports are Computers, Refined Oil, Automobiles, Rubber and Integrated Circuits, four of those five dominated by Foreign Investment rather than 'home grown' industries. Thailand is HUGELY reliant on foreigners and the investment by foreign companies the majority of which are from the US and EU and Japan. If it were not for the foreigners Thais seem to like to sneer at, then it does not take much to see where Thailand would be.

If you want an ASEAN comparable look at Singapore, granted benefiting hugely from the influence on it by the British prior to its independence, providing it with language, justice and governmental benefits that have set the foundations for the place it is today. That tiny place has a population of around 3 million in around 800 sq. kilometers of land, zero natural resources really yet produces around 75% of the GDP of Thailand with its 66 million people and HUGE natural resources. The average Singaporean thus produces approximately 15 times your average Thai with little to no land resources or natural resources to contribute.

It is a massive disparity and rather exposes the myth of how Great Thailand and Thais are compared to what they are taught and what their egos delude themselves with. I guess one day the eyes will open and reality will dawn, but not while the people are brainwashed into believing they are something they are not. In the mean time the nation should graciously accept the good fortune of foreign investment and concerning itself with eradicating corruption, revamping the education system completely, and getting its people working not only more efficiently but more innovatively.

When you consider the advances made in the last 30 years even, they are massive. In the same time what has Thailand done? It has improved significantly through courting foreign investment but that is a veneer to what is needed which is for Thais to be educated so they can achieve their full potential. Thais are born no more stupid than any other person so it is all a result of social (in all aspects) ill conditioning that leaves them near the bottom of the pile. Every person deserves an opportunity and the nation should be striving to provide the best it can. It will not do so by expectorating at the nations and Economic partners that provide its sustenance but rather by self-examination and an understanding and acceptance of its own problems. Therein lies enlightenment!

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Hey...you have said what I have been saying for 27 years while living here in Thailand.

Love the place in many aspects but the mentality of the Thais in general and all too often is......."amusing" ...would be a good choice of words.

They really love themselves and everything Thai while constructive criticism from outsiders is commonly rejected by way of believing foreigners do not understand the Thai people and Thai ways so no need to listen and learn.

With that common mentality amongst the Thais I can only surmise the nation will always suffer their own self inflicted demise.

[NeverSure]

Is it possible that the US government does not understand they have bankrupted their country, and made the US less relevant to world politics going forward than outer Mongolia ? When China recalls their loans, Barraco Barner will be hot on the blower to Prayuth(and other Asian leaders) begging to borrow some dosh. So he had better keep on the general's good side.

Good God. The US doesn't have any "loans" from the Chinese. The Chinese hold US dollars in the form of bonds so that they can buy and sell in international trade. No one will accept Chinese currency. The dollar is the international unit of trade and even Thailand has a lot of US dollars in reserve for that purpose.

Where do people get this crap? China buys US dollars because it has to, and suddenly it is rich. China's debt and economy is falling and dangerous. China is about to careen into the tank.

The US irrelevant to whom? What is the topic of the OP?

The US is the second largest buyer of Thailand's exports, and running the US off would bankrupt Thailand.

And you are so educated that you think the US is "less relevant than Mongolia."

Keep up your wishful thinking. The US debt as a percentage of GDP is far less than Japan's, less than China's counting China's shadow banking system, and not very much more than the UK's. The US has by far the world's biggest economy so the numbers will always look big.

[gemguy]

Is it possible that the US government does not understand they have bankrupted their country, and made the US less relevant to world politics going forward than outer Mongolia ? When China recalls their loans, Barraco Barner will be hot on the blower to Prayuth(and other Asian leaders) begging to borrow some dosh. So he had better keep on the general's good side.

Good God. The US doesn't have any "loans" from the Chinese. The Chinese hold US dollars in the form of bonds so that they can buy and sell in international trade. No one will accept Chinese currency. The dollar is the international unit of trade and even Thailand has a lot of US dollars in reserve for that purpose.

Where do people get this crap? China buys US dollars because it has to, and suddenly it is rich. China's debt and economy is falling and dangerous. China is about to careen into the tank.

The US irrelevant to whom? What is the topic of the OP?

The US is the second largest buyer of Thailand's exports, and running the US off would bankrupt Thailand.

And you are so educated that you think the US is "less relevant than Mongolia."

Keep up your wishful thinking. The US debt as a percentage of GDP is far less than Japan's, less than China's counting China's shadow banking system, and not very much more than the UK's. The US has by far the world's biggest economy so the numbers will always look big.

The USA has competition for sure while the country is struggling in some aspects but most people do not have any idea just how much economic clout the USA has while the manufacturing base is so diversified and huge it is mind boggling.

A good way to begin to understand the American economy is by way of reviewing such publications as the Thomas Directory , A to Z listing of USA manufacturers and product suppliers and services based in the USA.

Nothing short of Amazing.

You can commonly pick one product...such as Titanium, for example, while the list of manufactures of Titanium based products and product suppliers goes on and on while a large percent of the company listings manufacture products or supply related services that no other country in the world provides.

Everything and anything is there making for the largest diversified economy in the world.

The country may be mismanaged by the government in many respects but the country is not about to fail.

China...ha...probably 80% of what China now produces are products coming from industries that they copied....while many of those products and industries originated in the USA long ago.

Cheap labor will not sustain a robust economy for ever.

[fab4]

But you can always rely on ASEAN to watch your back. In fact the visiting army general from Myanmar has just praised the Thai junta for their "military intervention", and they should know. There's a touching (well, more like hugging) picture of the Thai Supreme Commander and his Burmese counterpart in the other paper online.

[gemguy]

But you can always rely on ASEAN to watch your back. In fact the visiting army general from Myanmar has just praised the Thai junta for their "military intervention", and they should know. There's a touching (well, more like hugging) picture of the Thai Supreme Commander and his Burmese counterpart in the other paper online.

Yeah........that was taken just before the 2 buddies went on a drinking and girly bar hopping romp to solidify their friendship and like minded mentality....ha ha

[NeverSure]

Is it possible that the US government does not understand they have bankrupted their country, and made the US less relevant to world politics going forward than outer Mongolia ? When China recalls their loans, Barraco Barner will be hot on the blower to Prayuth(and other Asian leaders) begging to borrow some dosh. So he had better keep on the general's good side.

Good God. The US doesn't have any "loans" from the Chinese. The Chinese hold US dollars in the form of bonds so that they can buy and sell in international trade. No one will accept Chinese currency. The dollar is the international unit of trade and even Thailand has a lot of US dollars in reserve for that purpose.

Where do people get this crap? China buys US dollars because it has to, and suddenly it is rich. China's debt and economy is falling and dangerous. China is about to careen into the tank.

The US irrelevant to whom? What is the topic of the OP?

The US is the second largest buyer of Thailand's exports, and running the US off would bankrupt Thailand.

And you are so educated that you think the US is "less relevant than Mongolia."

Keep up your wishful thinking. The US debt as a percentage of GDP is far less than Japan's, less than China's counting China's shadow banking system, and not very much more than the UK's. The US has by far the world's biggest economy so the numbers will always look big.

The USA has competition for sure while the country is struggling in some aspects but most people do not have any idea just how much economic clout the USA has while the manufacturing base is so diversified and huge it is mind boggling.

A good way to begin to understand the American economy is by way of reviewing such publications as the Thomas Directory , A to Z listing of USA manufacturers and product suppliers and services based in the USA.

Nothing short of Amazing.

You can commonly pick one product...such as Titanium, for example, while the list of manufactures of Titanium based products and product suppliers goes on and on while a large percent of the company listings manufacture products or supply related services that no other country in the world provides.

Everything and anything is there making for the largest diversified economy in the world.

The country may be mismanaged by the government in many respects but the country is not about to fail.

China...ha...probably 80% of what China now produces are products coming from industries that they copied....while many of those products and industries originated in the USA long ago.

Cheap labor will not sustain a robust economy for ever.

Spot on. You nailed it. Good job.

[Morch]

I would hardly say Australia and the USA governments are in a position to comment they are both woeful administrations and really have no idea what is going on in Thailand.

Always a good laugh to read posts like this one.

The USA and Australia, sure, what would they know about Thailand ? Not as if they're expats who post on TVF.

Clearly, the USA and Australia make all of their decisions based upon academic papers, high level embassy reports

that are out of touch with the "real" Thailand. To imagine they have no idea about the lay of the land, and probably too

a much better degree than most posters (myself certainly included) is a preposterous, if common, point of view.

I think that the USA, EU and Australia reactions to the coup were over the top, yes. Totally unreasonable, no.

That the current storm in a teacup will pass is nothing short of guaranteed, editorial articles in The Nation notwithstanding.