Thai junta chief faces some big decisions

[webfact]

AFTER COUP
Junta chief faces some big decisions
THE NATION

Prayuth may need to retire as army chief before becoming interim PM

BANGKOK: -- THE National Council for Peace and Order has instructed its legal panel to make a change to the proposed interim Charter to prevent a "power overlap" between the interim government and the NCPO, a source said yesterday.

The provision in question gives the NCPO authority over the interim government. However, legal experts have pointed out that this would lead to implementation problems, because some NCPO members are also expected to be Cabinet ministers.

"If the NCPO rules against a Cabinet decision on some issues, the administration will run into a legal snag,'' the source said.

The Charter drafters have been assigned to present drawbacks and advantages of the interim government having absolute control in running the country juxtaposed against the NCPO being in charge of the government, especially in matters that affect national security.

If the NCPO's legal team is able solve legal complications arising from the power overlap, the interim Cabinet is expected to be made up of three groups - military top brass who are NCPO members; people handpicked by NCPO chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha and other NCPO leaders; and specialists such as technocrats.

It is likely Prayuth will be the PM in the interim government to ensure the NCPO accomplishes its missions, analysts have said.

Since many believe Prayuth, as NCPO chief, should be held accountable for the success or failure of the national reform process, there has been little opposition to the speculated move.

However, there is a knot that the NCPO has to unravel. If Prayuth becomes PM, will he continue to double as Army chief?

The interim Cabinet is sure to be formed before September 30, when Prayuth is due to retire as Army chief.

So, he has three options: One, is that he extends his term as Army chief to have absolute power. Under this scenario he would simultaneously hold three posts - PM, NCPO chief and Army chief.

However, it is expected that this could create an "undercurrent" in the Army because four high-ranking officials are vying for the military's top post - and they would lose that chance.

The second possibility involves Prayuth retiring and appointing his most trusted aide to be Army chief while he would continue as NCPO chief and PM to balance his power.

This option would also likely ruffle feathers in the military but it is believed Prayuth could handle the situation.

The last option would involve Prayuth retiring as Army chief and also stepping down as NCPO boss to allow the country's 29th prime minister to steer the country using the NCPO's roadmap to democracy. This is the least likely scenario unless the NCPO amends the interim charter stipulate that the junta does not command the government.

All three possibilities point to Prayuth as the most likely person to take the post of interim PM. But with the unpredictability of Thai politics, a source close to the NCPO said General Prawit Wongsuwan, the former defence minister, was also high on the list to be PM.

Prayuth has said the interim charter could be promulgated this month. The proposed document, made up of about 46 articles, identifies the National Legislative Assembly's roles and acquisition of power.

It is expected the NCPO would appoint 200 members to the assembly and that it would have the capacity to write and revamp current laws, draft a new charter and vote for the PM. The assembly chairman would nominate the PM for royal endorsement.

The proposed charter would also identify the process used to select the Cabinet and the qualifications that Cabinet members must have. It is expected the Cabinet would have no more than 36 members and could include state officials.

The reform council is likely to comprise 250 members, including one from each of the 77 provinces. The rest would be specialists picked from various professional groups such as the legal fraternity, plus civil administration, natural resources and the environment. Professional bodies would either select members or a selection panel would do it.

The reform council would have to draw up national reforms in accordance with proposals from the Reconciliation Centre for Reforms, which is gathering information from villages across the country. The council will also heed suggestions from a reform panel chaired by Defence secretary General Surasak Kanjanarat.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Junta-chief-faces-some-big-decisions-30237883.html


-- The Nation 2014-07-07

[terryp]

i believe this is when the real troubles could start, thaksin and his gang have gone very quiet as they know sept will be the start of a very different ncpo

[siampolee]

Prayuth in reality has to take the position .

There at this moment in time cannot be any remote possibilty of any political figure from whatever political persusion being placed in the position of Prime Minister.

The matter is delicate and as I have said for a long time Thailand needs an interim period ( my feeling is some two years) in which to re-establish a somewhat cleaner political, civil legal and far less corrupt society.

We are not in my lifetime anyway, nor my childrens either for that matter likely to see corruption swept away, it will always be with us to a lesser degre as it is in every other national society in our world.

The second possibility involves Prayuth retiring and appointing his most trusted aide to be Army chief while he would continue as NCPO chief and PM to balance his power.

The above scenario in my view would be the best way to go,

Thailand is at a crossroads politically and socially, the route taken in the very near future will decide the future of Thailand and its peoples.

Which road is the right road?

Indeed a vexing question.

Edited July 7, 2014 by siampolee

[smutcakes]

I hope when/if Prayuth stands aside or down as army chief, he refrains from cronyism and his successor is someone there on performance rather than him just passing it to a close 'aide' or one of his buddies in the same regiment which is whats been happening the last few times.

Practice what you preach boys.

[Bender]

yes this couragous general and thailand do have two big problems they have to deal with.

He has to decide quickly, if the next PM, should have a few hundreds percent salary raise...

And also he has to decide if the next PM, should should get an amnesty for any previous wrongdoing...

But actually he is too busing counting missing rice.

[lostsoul49]

I don't give a damn who it is as long as they get the job done and continue with the success it has already been up to now... I really don't care if it is Prayuth's wife, as long as everything stays on track. I am loving all these news stories that are casting a big net slowly but surely over all these corrupt idiots Thailand has had to suffer for years.

Can't wait till they start reforming the police.

[noitom]

The most important decision he has to make is who is accountable for all of his decisions in a year, two three and on? By the way, has he announced his succession plan in the event that he has a heart attack and drops dead, becomes incapacitated..etc? The future accountability is a big issue.

[DiamondKing]

i believe this is when the real troubles could start, thaksin and his gang have gone very quiet as they know sept will be the start of a very different ncpo

Yes correct but no suprise is it, when anyone who opposes this happy happy time while under a Military Coup will be arrested and detained so its not really a surprise the opposition to this coup is remaining quiet and biding their time until they can actually have an opinion and a say in what actually happens in this country without fear or intimidation and arrest.

The way this thing is going, I am sure the NCPO will instruct all Thais they are only allowed to vote the way they are told to, else face arrest because lets face it they have voted 2 times already adn their vote meant nothing so this is probably the best way forward.

At least we are all Happy Happy Happy and don't have a say in this

[Robby nz]

He should not be interim PM, he should stay on as army chief until his retirement and not interfere with the normal process of choosing his successor .

He should stay on as head of NCPO after he retires as army chief.

Then when the time comes he should either form or join a political party and stand in the general election as a constituency candidate with the understanding he would be MP of a democratically elected Government if the party he represented won the election.

[ebean001]

First step is the hopeful removal of martial law. This will help the junta show they can manage the situation and the 'new' government can also manage with freedom to the people. that should be the firsdt step to see how things shake out.

[rickirs]

So long as the Thai Military has the power to overthrow the government and/or to create law, veto or amend any legislation the government enacts without review or approval, any of the three junta options regarding the future form of an elected government will only create a "faux" democracy. At best Thais will be governed by a benevolent dictatorship. I'm not commenting on whether a dictatorship is good or bad, but it would be a hypocrisy to hide it under the candy wrapper of "democracy."

[fab4]

THE National Council for Peace and Order has instructed its legal panel to make a change to the proposed interim Charter to prevent a "power overlap" between the interim government and the NCPO, a source said yesterday.
The provision in question gives the NCPO authority over the interim government. However, legal experts have pointed out that this would lead to implementation problems, because some NCPO members are also expected to be Cabinet ministers.

As stated in the OP the most likely scenario (the other two scenarios having been discounted) will be that prayuth steps down as army chief yet remains head honcho of the NCPO and becomes the interim PM

"The second possibility involves Prayuth retiring and appointing his most trusted aide to be Army chief while he would continue as NCPO chief and PM to balance his power".

Surely that means that there will still be a conflict of interest as the NCPO will have authority over the government, i.e prayuth as head of NCPO telling prayuth as PM what the interim government can and cannot do, under the guise of "National Security". So it has the same effect as the first option,

"One, is that he extends his term as Army chief to have absolute power. Under this scenario he would simultaneously hold three posts - PM, NCPO chief and Army chief."

but he doesn't have to worry about internal splits in the army, because the army chief post isn't up for grabs.

So same result - Not quite absolute Power, but good enough.

Now a bit further down the line and presumably looking towards a real civilian government being elected, the interim constitution has to be changed to remove this clause otherwise the NCPO forever remains as a higher authority than the government, in the "interests of National Security". Who is likely to be PM of the interim government which has to make a decision on this amendment or at the very least will have the final decision on the makeup of the the body charged with drawing up the new constitution (shades of 2006/2007)?

Excuse my cynicism, but if that isn't a conflict of interest what is?

Edited July 7, 2014 by fab4

[Oziex1]

I don't give a damn who it is as long as they get the job done and continue with the success it has already been up to now... I really don't care if it is Prayuth's wife, as long as everything stays on track. I am loving all these news stories that are casting a big net slowly but surely over all these corrupt idiots Thailand has had to suffer for years.

Can't wait till they start reforming the police.

Catching the corrupt idiots is good news, ensuring new ones don't enter the void is the real task.

[toybits]

Riding on the back of a Tiger. Can't really get off the beast can you? A problem of their own making is a problem they should deal with themselves. Although, they will probably just try for an "easy way out" - if there ever was one.

[tingtongteesood]

yes this couragous general and thailand do have two big problems they have to deal with.

He has to decide quickly, if the next PM, should have a few hundreds percent salary raise...

And also he has to decide if the next PM, should should get an amnesty for any previous wrongdoing...

But actually he is too busing counting missing rice.

Gen. Prayuth is not counting rice, his subordinates are. But glad you admitted that there is rice missing, admitting there is a problem is the first step to curing it....

[Carrerakiss]

It's a shame that possibly the best solution, number one, isn't really possible because four high ranking army officers would have their noses put out of joint because they missed the chance for the top job.

Seems a little bit selfish at the time when, supposedly, everyone is putting aside the personal vested interests (be it in democracy, politics or business) in favour of the good of the country.

I'm not really sure why there is a rush for an interim government, after all, if you're going to have a junta, might as well make it a good one and let it have as much time as it wants to do what it thinks is necessary. I suppose it's all to do with the retirement of the big General and the need for him to personally continue to oversee things. But surely he isn't a one man team?

[marcusd]

Why not prayuth remain and extend his tenure as head of NCPO and appoint a PM? problem solved

Sent from my RM-892_apac_laos_thailand_219 using Tapatalk

[Bernard Flint]

Prayuth in reality has to take the position .

There at this moment in time cannot be any remote possibilty of any political figure from whatever political persusion being placed in the position of Prime Minister.

The matter is delicate and as I have said for a long time Thailand needs an interim period ( my feeling is some two years) in which to re-establish a somewhat cleaner political, civil legal and far less corrupt society.

We are not in my lifetime anyway, nor my childrens either for that matter likely to see corruption swept away, it will always be with us to a lesser degre as it is in every other national society in our world.

The second possibility involves Prayuth retiring and appointing his most trusted aide to be Army chief while he would continue as NCPO chief and PM to balance his power.

The above scenario in my view would be the best way to go,

Thailand is at a crossroads politically and socially, the route taken in the very near future will decide the future of Thailand and its peoples.

Which road is the right road?

Indeed a vexing question.

The only road is a democratic 1 man 1 vote way. The only problem is how can thais trust anybody at the moment, they are all crooks

[rethaier]

It will take a lot longer than 2 short years for true reform to become a reality. First we need a new generation of polititians that have different ethics and moral values. Elections from the existing party members will just have Thailand back to corruption as usual in a very short span of time unless the army maintains control of the governement as overseers to ensure the corrupt polititians keep their nasty heads down. Some very severe laws and punishments need to be enacted but the enforcement of those laws cannot be left in the hands of those same individuals. China has the right idea, if you steal the peoples money in any way, no matter how small the amount, or knowingly let someone else do it you die. So that means civil servants do their job without bribes, police fines (100%) go to the state coffers, educational qualifications and positions are earned on merit not bought, the list is endless.

[Bakseeda]

yes this couragous general and thailand do have two big problems they have to deal with.

He has to decide quickly, if the next PM, should have a few hundreds percent salary raise...

And also he has to decide if the next PM, should should get an amnesty for any previous wrongdoing...

But actually he is too busing counting missing rice.

Another waste of good words...!! God love us..!!!!!

[ratcatcher]

Prayuth in reality has to take the position .

There at this moment in time cannot be any remote possibilty of any political figure from whatever political persusion being placed in the position of Prime Minister.

The matter is delicate and as I have said for a long time Thailand needs an interim period ( my feeling is some two years) in which to re-establish a somewhat cleaner political, civil legal and far less corrupt society.

We are not in my lifetime anyway, nor my childrens either for that matter likely to see corruption swept away, it will always be with us to a lesser degre as it is in every other national society in our world.

The second possibility involves Prayuth retiring and appointing his most trusted aide to be Army chief while he would continue as NCPO chief and PM to balance his power.

The above scenario in my view would be the best way to go,

Thailand is at a crossroads politically and socially, the route taken in the very near future will decide the future of Thailand and its peoples.

Which road is the right road?

Indeed a vexing question.

The only road is a democratic 1 man 1 vote way. The only problem is how can thais trust anybody at the moment, they are all crooks

On that basis, it would seem that some crooks are better than others.

[ratcatcher]

What everyone forgets ,is that soon something that cannot be discussed will happen ,then what then?

I am sure the good General has made contingency plans for any major future events that will affect the Kingdom. That is why he is in charge and not the former First Family of the Shin tribe..

[Bakseeda]

Prayuth in reality has to take the position .

There at this moment in time cannot be any remote possibilty of any political figure from whatever political persusion being placed in the position of Prime Minister.

The matter is delicate and as I have said for a long time Thailand needs an interim period ( my feeling is some two years) in which to re-establish a somewhat cleaner political, civil legal and far less corrupt society.

We are not in my lifetime anyway, nor my childrens either for that matter likely to see corruption swept away, it will always be with us to a lesser degre as it is in every other national society in our world.

The second possibility involves Prayuth retiring and appointing his most trusted aide to be Army chief while he would continue as NCPO chief and PM to balance his power.

The above scenario in my view would be the best way to go,

Thailand is at a crossroads politically and socially, the route taken in the very near future will decide the future of Thailand and its peoples.

Which road is the right road?

Indeed a vexing question.

The only road is a democratic 1 man 1 vote way. The only problem is how can thais trust anybody at the moment, they are all crooks

Bernard , how long have you been here, this current situation was caused by 1 man , 1 vote... In Thailand that cannot be the way forward for the time being. The whole of Issan and the North of Thailand will, and do vote for who they are told to vote for by the village and town headmen. Its society there. Before this coup every headman in that area was given one million bahts minimum every year by PTP. So , who do you think the peoples were going to vote for. In those areas the peoples are bombarded by Red TV and Red Radio, and the Red Propaganda machine. They do not know what the truth is. Now is the time to disband that mechanism and allow all parties and candidates for any party to canvass where they like. It will take time and as I saw in another post as in China, any person in a public job, should be severely dealt with if found guilty of corruption and fraud. And if in a position of power, should be stripped of all assets and prison for a long time.. make them think twice about lining their pockets.

[sae57]

So long as the Thai Military has the power to overthrow the government and/or to create law, veto or amend any legislation the government enacts without review or approval, any of the three junta options regarding the future form of an elected government will only create a "faux" democracy. At best Thais will be governed by a benevolent dictatorship. I'm not commenting on whether a dictatorship is good or bad, but it would be a hypocrisy to hide it under the candy wrapper of "democracy."

Sadly, that's pretty much how things have been since 1932, save maybe six months in the 70s. Anti-Thaksin as I am, I have to say that the junta's suppression of freedom of expression is too reminiscent of TS's time on the tin pot throne. Remember, it took Europe hundreds of years to create functioning democracies.

--S

[sae57]

Bakseeda

"The whole of Issan and the North of Thailand will, and do vote for who they are told to vote for by the village and town headmen. Its society there. Before this coup every headman in that area was given one million bahts minimum every year by PTP."

Nonsense. I am also a guava living in a redshirt village in a very redshirt area of Roiet. The million baht revolving is not given to the mayor--but lent to villagers (BTW, Abhisit upped it to a million five) and was a disaster as implemented. People vote for who the want. Our mayor is committed redshirt. His wife and two of his siblings are committed yellow (using the term loosly) & there are other yellows who feel that TS's policies have wrecked the local culture & trapped families in cycles of debt. Certainly red propaganda and loyalty to the "patron" TS who poured cash in "out of his own pocket" have swayed elections towards PTP, but it's not on the orders of mayors (nor due to vote buying).

--S

[Thailand]

Lots of jobs for the boys coming soon.

They are all enjoying the current situation and will be loathe to let go, most certainly in the short to medium term.

[metisdead]

A post with veiled speculation on HM the King has been removed, please note the text in bold red font below:

NCPO: All suspects in lese majeste cases, national security cases, violators of NCPO orders will face court martial

Due to the fluid situation in Thailand and the pressure being placed on the media, Thaivisa will temporarily impose strict limitations on any comments that can be construed as being negative about the imposition of Martial Law or the Coup. Posters will also not be permitted to make references to the royal family.

It is the hope of Thaivisa that this will be a temporary situation. Thaivisa will continue to monitor the situation and it is our wish that in a short while we will be able to less strict in the policy concerning posting. Posts contravening the policy will be removed without notice.

Please exercise extreme care in your posts. The same rules applies to Facebook, Twitter and other social media. Your cooperation is greatly appreciated.

Thaivisa Forum guidelines/rules: http://www.thaivisa....tion=boardrules

Thaivisa Forum Admin

[SiggiCM]

Gen. Prayuth and his colleges from the junta break thai constitution and law and should be punished what is written in the thai law for this treason, lifetime prison or death, this is the punishment by thai law,

all the TV members who support this general may be you are born in the wrong century you should live at the time of Musselini, Hitler, Stalin aso

this are all (for you) heroes who said that they will do the best for the people and make them happy,

why you not move to China or North Korea if you like this kind of goverment?

people are arrested for eating a sandwich. for reading a book what is published 50 years ago, for wearing T-shirts with words like democracy.

the TV members who support this kind of regime i really wish to get in he mills of this regime and then we will see how happy you are.

What the junta made util today?

arrest people who do not have the same thinking,

made the people clear you go to prison if you stay for your rights as human,

Censorship of the media,

did they accused 1 person of the old goverment for a crime? did they made any action against the high rollers in corruption?

no for sure not because they are their supporters, the part of the elite who are in the same boat with the army, what army general

get fined for all the corruption inside the army, buying weapons, supply?

but very important: give the people some free tickets for cinema

If you are wondering why people in the north and Isan vote for the former goverment, because they tried to make something for them,

dont let them live without rights and future, I not say that they made it good or correct, but not like the elite of bangkok and the Army who suck out this country nearly 80 years

Edited July 7, 2014 by SiggiCM

[BestBitterPhuket]

If the reforms are successful and yields results, he will have the thai peoples backing, even if he is in a double role. Thailand needs to copy Singapore's model of success, which was pragmatism through HONEST authoritarian rule. It is no better way.

Why can't Thailand issue an international arrest warrant for Thaksin through Interpol? That's what other countries are doing when reign in their fugitives. We can understand why the last government didn't do it, but I can't understand why Abishit didn't.

[dukebowling]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Prayuth in reality has to take the position .

There at this moment in time cannot be any remote possibilty of any political figure from whatever political persusion being placed in the position of Prime Minister.

The matter is delicate and as I have said for a long time Thailand needs an interim period ( my feeling is some two years) in which to re-establish a somewhat cleaner political, civil legal and far less corrupt society.

We are not in my lifetime anyway, nor my childrens either for that matter likely to see corruption swept away, it will always be with us to a lesser degre as it is in every other national society in our world.

The second possibility involves Prayuth retiring and appointing his most trusted aide to be Army chief while he would continue as NCPO chief and PM to balance his power.

The above scenario in my view would be the best way to go,

Thailand is at a crossroads politically and socially, the route taken in the very near future will decide the future of Thailand and its peoples.

Which road is the right road?

Indeed a vexing question.

Crossroads? More like a well traveled road that keeps circling back to where they started.

The only way to change the road is to uphold a governments constitution and let politicians complete their terms.

Edited July 7, 2014 by dukebowling