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Visa crackdown and property prices


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Property is = to demand and supply. Too many buildings coming up means increase in prices is = bubble

FORTUNATELY the market as a whole will not allow some stubborn property owners to succeed by demanding higher rent if the supply for the same type of property increases...

UNFORTUNATELY, if a whole global league of "big shots" in the City, at Wall Street and related places, in collusion with governments (partly knowingly, partly (hopefully...) unknowingly) gang up and play the market out of pure greed, then we are all out of luck, then anything can happen, as we all witnessed.

MORE UNFORTUNATELY, the vast majority of these "players" got all away with it, just a few million richer, each... Compared to that level of corrupt criminality (that's how I call if markets are played with by special interest groups out of pure greed), compared to that Thailand looks very "cute and civilised"... We (the western "developed" economies) lost "a little bit of face" and credibility to be able to criticise all what is otherwise in fact wrong in Thailand (sorry for straying off topic, or maybe not!?)

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How many tourist-visa runners own property? Zero.

False.... under 50 year old age ( I don't worked, I dont leartn thai, I had no thai wife... I was just a long term tourist: Only relax and spending my money ) no any other options to stay in the country for longer time, than the 3 entry tourist visa ( visa runs ) Now it seems illegal, despite the law says it is still legal.... BTW I own 3 condo and planned to buy a 4th... Under the new " visa lottery " I changed my mind...

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I was planning to buy a condo and stay for 3-6 months using

Visa runs so this will affect me.

How long can I stay under the new visa rules?

all explained here... The law did not change, it is just applied now... means...

1. NO VISA RUNS - get a tourist visa in your country which allows you to stay 60 days and which you can extend for another 30 days at immigration in Thailand (means, max 90 days). Be able to show a return ticket when you come, make things smoother

2. if you want to immediately add another 60/90 days immediately after the first 90 days then you are at risk of being refused if immigration senses you might be a "visa runner". You must be prepared to make clear that you are NOT a visa runner (have return ticket, have funds, have a job/family outside Thailand, whatever makes your case). If you only stay 3 months in a row, then back home for the next three months and come here again after a "decent gap" since your last 60/90 days (in particular if you show again a return ticket) that should keep you safe.

All NO problem for what you describe as long as you avoid being seen as a "visa runner" or being seen as staying in Thailand long term (> 6 months in a year) under a "tourist banner". 1 and 2 above will avoid making that impression and should keep you safe and well here.

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I am so glad Thailand is finally making it hard for the the trailer trash types to stay long term in line with other neighboring countries. We want more quality not quantity. Its high time we clean the place of foreign crap that have brought down the name of the country.

Edited by peterchin
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I was planning to buy a condo and stay for 3-6 months using

Visa runs so this will affect me.

How long can I stay under the new visa rules?

all explained here... The law did not change, it is just applied now... means...

1. NO VISA RUNS - get a tourist visa in your country which allows you to stay 60 days and which you can extend for another 30 days at immigration in Thailand (means, max 90 days). Be able to show a return ticket when you come, make things smoother

2. if you want to immediately add another 60/90 days immediately after the first 90 days then you are at risk of being refused if immigration senses you might be a "visa runner". You must be prepared to make clear that you are NOT a visa runner (have return ticket, have funds, have a job/family outside Thailand, whatever makes your case). If you only stay 3 months in a row, then back home for the next three months and come here again after a "decent gap" since your last 60/90 days (in particular if you show again a return ticket) that should keep you safe.

All NO problem for what you describe as long as you avoid being seen as a "visa runner" or being seen as staying in Thailand long term (> 6 months in a year) under a "tourist banner". 1 and 2 above will avoid making that impression and should keep you safe and well here.

The law not changed, it would be still legal.... but the visa lottery deny it. No any written law deny the triple entry tourist visa runs.

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I am so glad Thailand is finally making it hard for the the trailer trash types to stay long term in line with other neighboring countries. We want more quality not quantity. Its high time we clean the place of foreign crap that have brought down the name of the country.

Who are the " we " ? Are you the farang governor of thailand ? Time to visit a professional mental help clinic...

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It may affect rentals in a few places like Pattaya and Phuket, but on a big picture scale/Thailand as a whole farang ownership or rental of properties in Thailand is a drop in the bucket...this crackdown will just make that drop a tiny bit smaller.

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It may affect rentals in a few places like Pattaya and Phuket, but on a big picture scale/Thailand as a whole farang ownership or rental of properties in Thailand is a drop in the bucket...this crackdown will just make that drop a tiny bit smaller.

yes, it's a "niche"... but for those in these "niches" it will be a problem... All these "tourists" who are kicked out now don't spend a lot of money individually, I guess most dont have the money to spend a lot, but collectively they still represent not a small amount of cash which is now missing in many local Thai business owner's pocket. Almost each of the one's kicked out now had have to rent a motorbike or a car, rent some apartment/room, do the laundry, get some food (not to forget the drinks and "the fun"....).

Many small/mid Thai business owners depended on those kind of customers (in areas like Phuket, Samui, Hua Hin, Pattaya, etc...). Also some properly registered and official farang businesses cater for a farang community which is being kicked out now... we will see a lot of very unhappy (local) faces along the way the "cleaning up" road... That's inevitable, unfortunately... Let's just not pretend it is "business as usual"... in some "hot spots" it will cause havoc...

Edited by TTom911
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Visa runners also spend their 30, 40, 50,000 / month in the economy, and if they are no longer here, neither is their money which is is cycled and recycled throughout the community; this will make a difference to the businesses which they frequented and the businesses which received it from them as well.

The smiles which will now be on the faces of all of the Cambodian businesses and landlords will have come from the Thai faces.

And or, there will be a lot more students on ed visas.

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Won't make any difference. Most foreigners that buy property have visas to stay here. Those doig visa runs generally don't buy property. There are exceptions of course, but this affects very few people.

Admitted, I also don't have a crystal bowl either , but most replies along the lines "it has no effect" are very simplistic and naive, I believe. Things are a little more complex:

1. MANY Thais who buy property as "investment" are over-indebted. They buy on loans and in a high property price level.

2. in places, like Phuket and other areas which will see an exodus of "long-term tourists", the rental market will get a serious hit with large numbers of "tourists" having to leave because of the new visa handling

3. this will get a lot of these over-indebted Thai property owners who need the rental income to pay their monthly dues into trouble. As said, many are financially on the edge already; even more so with "under-the-table revenues" under attack...

4. the logic consequence would be that there will be quite a few emergency sales in some places, which WILL hit the property price for some sort of properties ("mid-quality", not so much on the hight end, I guess)

5. It will also affect the rate by which properties under development will be snapped up (again, mostly for "mid-quality" properties, not so much on the hight end, I guess)

6. As I hear from some banks, no surprise, they get stricter on property mortgage approvals already, which of course also reduces the buyer market, which will affect the property price level

7. All in all, I believe this will be in some significant parts of the market a bigger problem than portrayed here. It will be a "cooling of a bubble" in some segments of the market", and we saw how that tastes ...

Yes, it's simplistic, but not naive. No need to make a simple situation into something complicated. The fact is that the visa changes won't affect many people. Yes, they'll be less renting, but a tiny fraction of the rental market. So tiny that it's insignificant. There are already tens of thousands of empty properties and it doesn't seems to have pushed prices down. A few more won't make any difference. Most Thais I know or have spoken to about property buy with cash if they are investing. I was looking at a condo in Bangkok the other day and the owner said I could rent or buy. I asked why she;d want to sell, as teh condo was quite new. She said she had around 15 condos so it was ok to sell some occasionally. She said that generally she preferred to have money in property than in cash. And that is what I see with lots of Thais. They have bought with cash and they can afford to leave empty for years.

I also looked at some condos for sale in a 5-year old building. They have never been sold or lived in. The prices now are 20% higher than 5 years ago. So not being able to sell some since the building was first built hasn't dragged prices down. They can afford to wait or not ever sell. That s a huge different between Thai and Western property markets. There is a more of a rich/poor divide here and more buying with cash. They just don't need to sell, so there is no downward pressure on prices.

This is what makes the market here so hard to work out. Everything seems overvalued, but I can't see any real way for prices to drop drastically because there aren't many sellers who will lower prices. In UK, a developer would drop the prices for the last few sales. Here they would keep for 30 years if they didn't sell. It's a very different market.

Might be different in places like Jontiem in the coming years because areas like that seem so oversupplied that something will have to give eventually. But evn there I could be wrong.

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Visa runners also spend their 30, 40, 50,000 / month in the economy, and if they are no longer here, neither is their money which is is cycled and recycled throughout the community; this will make a difference to the businesses which they frequented and the businesses which received it from them as well.

The smiles which will now be on the faces of all of the Cambodian businesses and landlords will have come from the Thai faces.

And or, there will be a lot more students on ed visas.

1. yes, there will be many long faces...

2. forget the ED visa as a solution, that's the next one on the list...

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I know many expats living here 6-12 months a year on tourist visas. Most have the means but not age requirement for retirement visa. These folks are not deadbeats at all, they just have earned or inherited too much money too early in life.

If they have money they can get an Elite Card. No need for visa runs.

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How many tourist-visa runners own property? Zero.

False.... under 50 year old age ( I don't worked, I dont leartn thai, I had no thai wife... I was just a long term tourist: Only relax and spending my money ) no any other options to stay in the country for longer time, than the 3 entry tourist visa ( visa runs ) Now it seems illegal, despite the law says it is still legal.... BTW I own 3 condo and planned to buy a 4th... Under the new " visa lottery " I changed my mind...

You have money. Why not get an Elite Card? I don't know much about them but I think they allow you to stay for 5 years for around 500K baht. Reasonable price for people with money.

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Won't make any difference. Most foreigners that buy property have visas to stay here. Those doig visa runs generally don't buy property. There are exceptions of course, but this affects very few people.

Admitted, I also don't have a crystal bowl either , but most replies along the lines "it has no effect" are very simplistic and naive, I believe. Things are a little more complex:

1. MANY Thais who buy property as "investment" are over-indebted. They buy on loans and in a high property price level.

2. in places, like Phuket and other areas which will see an exodus of "long-term tourists", the rental market will get a serious hit with large numbers of "tourists" having to leave because of the new visa handling

3. this will get a lot of these over-indebted Thai property owners who need the rental income to pay their monthly dues into trouble. As said, many are financially on the edge already; even more so with "under-the-table revenues" under attack...

4. the logic consequence would be that there will be quite a few emergency sales in some places, which WILL hit the property price for some sort of properties ("mid-quality", not so much on the hight end, I guess)

5. It will also affect the rate by which properties under development will be snapped up (again, mostly for "mid-quality" properties, not so much on the hight end, I guess)

6. As I hear from some banks, no surprise, they get stricter on property mortgage approvals already, which of course also reduces the buyer market, which will affect the property price level

7. All in all, I believe this will be in some significant parts of the market a bigger problem than portrayed here. It will be a "cooling of a bubble" in some segments of the market", and we saw how that tastes ...

Yes, it's simplistic, but not naive. No need to make a simple situation into something complicated. The fact is that the visa changes won't affect many people. Yes, they'll be less renting, but a tiny fraction of the rental market. So tiny that it's insignificant. There are already tens of thousands of empty properties and it doesn't seems to have pushed prices down. A few more won't make any difference. Most Thais I know or have spoken to about property buy with cash if they are investing. I was looking at a condo in Bangkok the other day and the owner said I could rent or buy. I asked why she;d want to sell, as teh condo was quite new. She said she had around 15 condos so it was ok to sell some occasionally. She said that generally she preferred to have money in property than in cash. And that is what I see with lots of Thais. They have bought with cash and they can afford to leave empty for years.

I also looked at some condos for sale in a 5-year old building. They have never been sold or lived in. The prices now are 20% higher than 5 years ago. So not being able to sell some since the building was first built hasn't dragged prices down. They can afford to wait or not ever sell. That s a huge different between Thai and Western property markets. There is a more of a rich/poor divide here and more buying with cash. They just don't need to sell, so there is no downward pressure on prices.

This is what makes the market here so hard to work out. Everything seems overvalued, but I can't see any real way for prices to drop drastically because there aren't many sellers who will lower prices. In UK, a developer would drop the prices for the last few sales. Here they would keep for 30 years if they didn't sell. It's a very different market.

Might be different in places like Jontiem in the coming years because areas like that seem so oversupplied that something will have to give eventually. But evn there I could be wrong.

citing "tens of thousands of already empty properties" and then still arguing that "there will be no effect" just reminds me of the guys who gave our world economy a clean bill of health on the day before reality kicked in ("2008", if you remember...)

some people never learn... what the heck... we'll see... a waste of time getting exited about it here...

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I am so glad Thailand is finally making it hard for the the trailer trash types to stay long term in line with other neighboring countries. We want more quality not quantity. Its high time we clean the place of foreign crap that have brought down the name of the country.

Most of the 'foreign crap' that I've seen are genuine tourists who come for a couple of weeks. Sorry to have to inform you, but they'll still be coming.

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It may affect rentals in a few places like Pattaya and Phuket, but on a big picture scale/Thailand as a whole farang ownership or rental of properties in Thailand is a drop in the bucket...this crackdown will just make that drop a tiny bit smaller.

yes, it's a "niche"... but for those in these "niches" it will be a problem... All these "tourists" who are kicked out now don't spend a lot of money individually, I guess most dont have the money to spend a lot, but collectively they still represent not a small amount of cash which is now missing in many local Thai business owner's pocket. Almost each of the one's kicked out now had have to rent a motorbike or a car, rent some apartment/room, do the laundry, get some food (not to forget the drinks and "the fun"....).

Many small/mid Thai business owners depended on those kind of customers (in areas like Phuket, Samui, Hua Hin, Pattaya, etc...). Also some properly registered and official farang businesses cater for a farang community which is being kicked out now... we will see a lot of very unhappy (local) faces along the way the "cleaning up" road... That's inevitable, unfortunately... Let's just not pretend it is "business as usual"... in some "hot spots" it will cause havoc...

That's true, but you could make that case for all countries. Schengen only allows a 3-month stay every 6 months. So once you've stayed 3 months you have to leave and can't come back for another 3 months. Yes, that affects businesses because people who want to stay and can't now spend their money elsewhere.

I'm all for everyone being able to travel wherever the want. Abolish all passports and let people travel freely and live wherever they want. But that's not going to happen. But one person's loss is another person's gain. Some business will lose, but the long-term visa runners will go elsewhere and help business in that country. So they will be helping others by renting getting laundry done, etc. It will just be in a different country. So it all works out. Unless you think Thai people are more deserving of our money than Cambodian people, for example. By spending in Thailand you are affecting business owners in other countries by not spending there.

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Won't make any difference. Most foreigners that buy property have visas to stay here. Those doig visa runs generally don't buy property. There are exceptions of course, but this affects very few people.

Admitted, I also don't have a crystal bowl either , but most replies along the lines "it has no effect" are very simplistic and naive, I believe. Things are a little more complex:

1. MANY Thais who buy property as "investment" are over-indebted. They buy on loans and in a high property price level.

2. in places, like Phuket and other areas which will see an exodus of "long-term tourists", the rental market will get a serious hit with large numbers of "tourists" having to leave because of the new visa handling

3. this will get a lot of these over-indebted Thai property owners who need the rental income to pay their monthly dues into trouble. As said, many are financially on the edge already; even more so with "under-the-table revenues" under attack...

4. the logic consequence would be that there will be quite a few emergency sales in some places, which WILL hit the property price for some sort of properties ("mid-quality", not so much on the hight end, I guess)

5. It will also affect the rate by which properties under development will be snapped up (again, mostly for "mid-quality" properties, not so much on the hight end, I guess)

6. As I hear from some banks, no surprise, they get stricter on property mortgage approvals already, which of course also reduces the buyer market, which will affect the property price level

7. All in all, I believe this will be in some significant parts of the market a bigger problem than portrayed here. It will be a "cooling of a bubble" in some segments of the market", and we saw how that tastes ...

Yes, it's simplistic, but not naive. No need to make a simple situation into something complicated. The fact is that the visa changes won't affect many people. Yes, they'll be less renting, but a tiny fraction of the rental market. So tiny that it's insignificant. There are already tens of thousands of empty properties and it doesn't seems to have pushed prices down. A few more won't make any difference. Most Thais I know or have spoken to about property buy with cash if they are investing. I was looking at a condo in Bangkok the other day and the owner said I could rent or buy. I asked why she;d want to sell, as teh condo was quite new. She said she had around 15 condos so it was ok to sell some occasionally. She said that generally she preferred to have money in property than in cash. And that is what I see with lots of Thais. They have bought with cash and they can afford to leave empty for years.

I also looked at some condos for sale in a 5-year old building. They have never been sold or lived in. The prices now are 20% higher than 5 years ago. So not being able to sell some since the building was first built hasn't dragged prices down. They can afford to wait or not ever sell. That s a huge different between Thai and Western property markets. There is a more of a rich/poor divide here and more buying with cash. They just don't need to sell, so there is no downward pressure on prices.

This is what makes the market here so hard to work out. Everything seems overvalued, but I can't see any real way for prices to drop drastically because there aren't many sellers who will lower prices. In UK, a developer would drop the prices for the last few sales. Here they would keep for 30 years if they didn't sell. It's a very different market.

Might be different in places like Jontiem in the coming years because areas like that seem so oversupplied that something will have to give eventually. But evn there I could be wrong.

citing "tens of thousands of already empty properties" and then still arguing that "there will be no effect" just reminds me of the guys who gave our world economy a clean bill of health on the day before reality kicked in ("2008", if you remember...)

some people never learn... what the heck... we'll see... a waste of time getting exited about it here...

I'm just commenting on what I see here. If most people own property outright, then they never have to sell. It's different in places like the US where they lend money to people that have no hope of paying it back. I already said that I think property here is overpriced, but that doesn't mean it will drop in price because a few visa runners leave. I've lived through many property crashes in the West and am well aware that more will come. I'm also not claiming that it could never happen here, as it happened in 1997. What I'm saying is that when the economy is doing ok, no-one is forced to sell and a few visa runners less will make zero difference. If you think something like that will affect property prices here then you have no understanding at all of the property market here.

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Visa runners also spend their 30, 40, 50,000 / month in the economy, and if they are no longer here, neither is their money which is is cycled and recycled throughout the community; this will make a difference to the businesses which they frequented and the businesses which received it from them as well.

The smiles which will now be on the faces of all of the Cambodian businesses and landlords will have come from the Thai faces.

And or, there will be a lot more students on ed visas.

1. yes, there will be many long faces...

2. forget the ED visa as a solution, that's the next one on the list...

ED visas will still be allowed if it's genuine. If someone has been doing visa runs for 5 years and then suddenly gets refused and decides to get an ED visa and learn Thai I think they may still be refused entry because it will look more than a little suspicious. But for someone coming for the first time to study for a fixed time period I can't see any reason for it to be a problem. There is no crackdown on people here for genuine reasons with the correct visa. The new enforcement is how most countries enforce the rules. Trying doing visa runs from UK, USA and see how far you get.

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I also looked at some condos for sale in a 5-year old building. They have never been sold or lived in. The prices now are 20% higher than 5 years ago. So not being able to sell some since the building was first built hasn't dragged prices down. They can afford to wait or not ever sell. That s a huge different between Thai and Western property markets. There is a more of a rich/poor divide here and more buying with cash. They just don't need to sell, so there is no downward pressure on prices.

This is what makes the market here so hard to work out. Everything seems overvalued, but I can't see any real way for prices to drop drastically because there aren't many sellers who will lower prices. In UK, a developer would drop the prices for the last few sales. Here they would keep for 30 years if they didn't sell. It's a very different market.

The market is different because there are no property ownership taxes here. One day some clever government (this one?) will introduce them and that will probably have a big effect on the number of empty properties around and their asking prices.

Think about it: property taxes are the easiest of all to apply as you cant hide the property you own and you cant move it either. It's a mystery to me why they dont already exist in some substantial form. They would raise billions and billions for the government.

Edited by KittenKong
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How many tourist-visa runners own property? Zero.

False.... under 50 year old age ( I don't worked, I dont leartn thai, I had no thai wife... I was just a long term tourist: Only relax and spending my money ) no any other options to stay in the country for longer time, than the 3 entry tourist visa ( visa runs ) Now it seems illegal, despite the law says it is still legal.... BTW I own 3 condo and planned to buy a 4th... Under the new " visa lottery " I changed my mind...

You have money. Why not get an Elite Card? I don't know much about them but I think they allow you to stay for 5 years for around 500K baht. Reasonable price for people with money.

Because I don't buy an Uganda type brigand blackmail....for this money I can buy half Cambodia....

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I also looked at some condos for sale in a 5-year old building. They have never been sold or lived in. The prices now are 20% higher than 5 years ago. So not being able to sell some since the building was first built hasn't dragged prices down. They can afford to wait or not ever sell. That s a huge different between Thai and Western property markets. There is a more of a rich/poor divide here and more buying with cash. They just don't need to sell, so there is no downward pressure on prices.

This is what makes the market here so hard to work out. Everything seems overvalued, but I can't see any real way for prices to drop drastically because there aren't many sellers who will lower prices. In UK, a developer would drop the prices for the last few sales. Here they would keep for 30 years if they didn't sell. It's a very different market.

The market is different because there are no property ownership taxes here. One day some clever government (this one?) will introduce them and that will probably have a big effect on the number of empty properties around and their asking prices.

Think about it: property taxes are the easiest of all to apply as you cant hide the property you own and you cant move it either. It's a mystery to me why they dont already exist in some substantial form. They would raise billions and billions for the government.

Yes it would have an effect, but that's not what the OP asked. He asked about the border runner crackdown affecting prices.

UK has very minimal property tax as well.

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How many tourist-visa runners own property? Zero.

False.... under 50 year old age ( I don't worked, I dont leartn thai, I had no thai wife... I was just a long term tourist: Only relax and spending my money ) no any other options to stay in the country for longer time, than the 3 entry tourist visa ( visa runs ) Now it seems illegal, despite the law says it is still legal.... BTW I own 3 condo and planned to buy a 4th... Under the new " visa lottery " I changed my mind...

You have money. Why not get an Elite Card? I don't know much about them but I think they allow you to stay for 5 years for around 500K baht. Reasonable price for people with money.

Because I don't buy an Uganda type brigand blackmail....for this money I can buy half Cambodia....

What has it got to do with Cambodia. USA, UK and others have similar schemes for rich people But vastly more expensive. And a few Euro countries as well.

I suppose you'll be off to Cambodia then. Goodbye.

You'd also better look up the definition of blackmail. No-one is blackmailing you. You obviously don't know what it means.

Edited by ldnguy
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What has it got to do with Cambodia. USA, UK and others have similar schemes for rich people But vastly more expensive. And a few Euro countries as well.

I suppose you'll be off to Cambodia then. Goodbye.

You'd also better look up the definition of blackmail. No-one is blackmailing you. You obviously don't know what it means.

I like when the commie type zeal turns some people thinking they are the authority to say me good bye...w00t.gif

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Agree with above "PattayaPhom", but also for other cities.

My landlady has had a couple of properties vacant for aout 4 months. cosequently she is about 120,000 out of pocket. She sent me a letter the other day informing me that as of September my rent would increase by approximately 60%

In answer to the OP's question, I think that new house sales will be hardly be affected, but wental properties certainy will, and it will get worse. as short term renters vacate.

What a stupid woman. Now you'll move and she'll be out much more.

Unbelievable. I presume she is doing this to others if there are multiple units/properties already rented. Get out and let her pay for her stupidity.

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UK has very minimal property tax as well.

Really? I dont call UK council tax minimal, and council tax is just rates (property tax) by another name.

In Europe the full local property tax on my house was somewhere north of 150,000B(equiv)/year though I did get some rebates on that.

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My landlady has had a couple of properties vacant for aout 4 months. cosequently she is about 120,000 out of pocket. She sent me a letter the other day informing me that as of September my rent would increase by approximately 60%

What a stupid woman. Now you'll move and she'll be out much more.

Maybe she just wants him out anyway, for whatever reason.

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Agree with above "PattayaPhom", but also for other cities.

My landlady has had a couple of properties vacant for aout 4 months. cosequently she is about 120,000 out of pocket. She sent me a letter the other day informing me that as of September my rent would increase by approximately 60%

In answer to the OP's question, I think that new house sales will be hardly be affected, but wental properties certainy will, and it will get worse. as short term renters vacate.

My wife has several properties,bought 8-10 years ago,and in that time have not

been able to raise the rents,as I don't think the market is right to put the rents up,

The returns are still good @ 12-16% and the houses have paid for themselves,

We are not greedy and have happy long term tenants, as we look after them.

Regards Worgeordie

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