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Posted

If one reads all the headlines of the Junta and the various bold efforts at reform, its impossible to not wonder the effect it will have on personal economies.

-Mass exodus of foreign labor (construction).

-Regulation of taxi mafias.

-Pushcart vendors removal from sidewalks.

-"Visa run" services being eliminated.

-Early closure of late night alcohol establishments.

-Even loss of "tea money" for police as small businesses are shuttered.

-Loss of Tourism for past 2 Quarters.

And we have not yet seen the effects of the crackdown on Visas, which will eliminate many illegal wage earners who, never-the-less, returned those wages immediately back into the local economy in the purchase of rent and living costs. What impact will this have on the condo market in Pattaya or Sukhumvet?

As I understand it, many Thai are not good savers and spend as they earn. I have read many have taken out loans in recent years and household debt is at the highest it ever has been historically. How many months can the average Thai household survive on their savings?

Are the ripple effects being felt already? Ofcourse, we are still in the early stages and there are still more reforms planned. It will be another 30-60 days before we see the full impact of the Visa crackdown.

I fully support the efforts and goals of the General and the Junta--I only wonder what observations or forecasts some of you might have.

Cheers

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Posted

I would think there will be a few performing rectal exercises right now and for others there may be a degree of uncertainty. For those totally legit and sorted the future I think looks very promising.

  • Like 1

 

 

Posted

With regards to tourist figures I think it's going to be downhill all the way from here on in.

Every one of those visa runners entries counts as a tourist arriving.

I suspect the arrival figures are going to take a big hit over the next 3-6 months when compared with the figures from previous years.

Posted

Khun T destroyed the economy.

But then all those highly original individual Thai businesses will always survive as they have no competition. coffee1.gif

Same as all those farang highly original farang bars. coffee1.gif

Khun T seemed to want to destroy the economy and pushed people into debt and destroy businesses, now all that available money (unpaid income tax being a high proportion of it) isn't available. Everywhere is empty, bars , restaurants, shopping malls (except for the air conditioning balloon chasers), even Tescos tonight barely anyone there.

As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that. The falsely high baht saw to that and yes the increased prices of a certain type of girl got rid of a lot of a certain type of tourist. How many American and European sex tourists are there now compared to before , they go to Central and south America and Eastern europe now.

If the tourist numbers are low now imagine what they would have been like if Khun T and co had succeeded in what they wanted, who would come then ?

Posted

I am most curious about the post-Junta economic environment, specifically its impact on the average Thai household. I would prefer to keep the thread from getting siderailed by historical partisan diversion.

If Thais start to feel the pinch in their pockets for very long then will the current wave of support for the Junta fall off?

It would seem this is one reason why changes have been pushed so quickly rather than in stages over time. Best to swallow the medicine in one gulp.

The above reference to "working" girls is an interesting one since they generate more income than many street vendors and other small businesses. Much of their earnings are sent to the parents and further trickle down into rural economies. Am I correct in thinking the reforms of the Junta are not yet being felt in the economy as much as they will be in another few months?

Thanks

  • Like 1
Posted

Khun T destroyed the economy.

But then all those highly original individual Thai businesses will always survive as they have no competition. coffee1.gif

Same as all those farang highly original farang bars. coffee1.gif

Khun T seemed to want to destroy the economy and pushed people into debt and destroy businesses, now all that available money (unpaid income tax being a high proportion of it) isn't available. Everywhere is empty, bars , restaurants, shopping malls (except for the air conditioning balloon chasers), even Tescos tonight barely anyone there.

As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that. The falsely high baht saw to that and yes the increased prices of a certain type of girl got rid of a lot of a certain type of tourist. How many American and European sex tourists are there now compared to before , they go to Central and south America and Eastern europe now.

If the tourist numbers are low now imagine what they would have been like if Khun T and co had succeeded in what they wanted, who would come then ?

:"As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that"

I am curious - how did you come to your conclusion?

The numbers I saw do not appear to support your assertion in the slightest:

2013 26.7 (in millions) (source: TAT)

2012 22.3

2011 19.2

2010 15.9

  • Like 1
Posted

Khun T destroyed the economy.

But then all those highly original individual Thai businesses will always survive as they have no competition. coffee1.gif

Same as all those farang highly original farang bars. coffee1.gif

Khun T seemed to want to destroy the economy and pushed people into debt and destroy businesses, now all that available money (unpaid income tax being a high proportion of it) isn't available. Everywhere is empty, bars , restaurants, shopping malls (except for the air conditioning balloon chasers), even Tescos tonight barely anyone there.

As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that. The falsely high baht saw to that and yes the increased prices of a certain type of girl got rid of a lot of a certain type of tourist. How many American and European sex tourists are there now compared to before , they go to Central and south America and Eastern europe now.

If the tourist numbers are low now imagine what they would have been like if Khun T and co had succeeded in what they wanted, who would come then ?

:"As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that"

I am curious - how did you come to your conclusion?

The numbers I saw do not appear to support your assertion in the slightest:

2013 26.7 (in millions) (source: TAT)

2012 22.3

2011 19.2

2010 15.9

cheesy.gif You're quoting TAT figures. cheesy.gif

Posted

"You're quoting TAT figures" - fair point, but they are all that I have available to me for this decade. I know TAT figures are suspect, and that is why, for transparency, I stated the source.

Which (better?) source did you use in formulating your statement "As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that" -- or was your assertion a scientific conclusion reached by "your eyes"?!smile.png

Posted

If Thais start to feel the pinch in their pockets for very long then will the current wave of support for the Junta fall off?

Support (or lack thereof) for leaders only matters in a democracy.

Posted

"You're quoting TAT figures" - fair point, but they are all that I have available to me for this decade. I know TAT figures are suspect, and that is why, for transparency, I stated the source.

Which (better?) source did you use in formulating your statement "As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that" -- or was your assertion a scientific conclusion reached by "your eyes"?!smile.png

He doesn't have a source, he just made it up. Funny how those predicting (read hoping) the demise of Thailand always have a need to throw in a bunch of fictitious facts and figures just to make their point.

Posted

Honestly, from just about everyone I've spoken to--farang and Thai--the belief is that the Junta is doing a good job running Thailand. Now I'm not supporting a military dictatorship as a proper governing body. But for the short term, the Junta beats the heck out of the previous administration (and their political opposition).

  • Like 1
Posted

I would think there will be a few performing rectal exercises right now and for others there may be a degree of uncertainty. For those totally legit and sorted the future I think looks very promising.

I don't agree,

I believe this is part of a drive to remove all foreigners from Thailand.

Which of us is right? We will have to wait and see.

  • Like 1
Posted

I see local (Pattaya) visa run companies still running their ads on local TV, maybe they'd already paid up front for the ads and just letting them run anyway.

Posted

I would think there will be a few performing rectal exercises right now and for others there may be a degree of uncertainty. For those totally legit and sorted the future I think looks very promising.

I don't agree,

I believe this is part of a drive to remove all foreigners from Thailand.

Which of us is right? We will have to wait and see.

What and go back to susbsistence farming?

Posted

I would think there will be a few performing rectal exercises right now and for others there may be a degree of uncertainty. For those totally legit and sorted the future I think looks very promising.

I don't agree,

I believe this is part of a drive to remove all foreigners from Thailand.

Which of us is right? We will have to wait and see.

You keep making comments like that and people are going to think you have some kind of paranoid personality disorder.

  • Like 1
Posted

It is reasonable to assume that there will be a massive spike in crime in Phuket in the coming months.

Here are just a few reasons why:

1. Tuk tuks have lost their income

2. The owners and staff of all of the beachside restaurants and bars have lost their income

3. The chair and umbrella vendors have lost their income

4. The beach boys (jet ski and watersport) vendores have lost their income

5. The owners and staff of all of the visa run companies have lost their income

6. The bargirls and girlfriends who have visa runner partners have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

7. In the next month the debts for gambling on the World Cup will be pursued by the loan sharks

8. Gold is at a historic low compared to recent years and many thai families have porned their gold to pay for start of school expenses

9. All of the ancillary businesses that support the beachside enterprises have lost their income. For example the guys that run into the seafood market in Phuket Town and/or Makro or super cheap Yai every day to run stock back out to the west coast

10. All of the ancillary businesses that support the Tuk and Taxi and visa run industry are gutted. I know a thai guy who has the bridgestone shop at Thalang. He told me the other day that his revenue has dropped 35 to 40 percent since the junta arrived in Phuket and his business is now trading below break even

11. Anyone renting a room or motorbike to a visa runner have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

It could be argued that the Bangkok elite don't like Phuket. Perhaps those in power prefer a feudal system where they keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer.

Everyone cheered the clearing of the west coast beaches in Phuket.

But the elephant in the room is that Phuket is now controlled by the Bangkok elite.

Be very careful what you wish for.

  • Like 1
Posted

"You're quoting TAT figures" - fair point, but they are all that I have available to me for this decade. I know TAT figures are suspect, and that is why, for transparency, I stated the source.

Which (better?) source did you use in formulating your statement "As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that" -- or was your assertion a scientifiic conclusion reached by "your eyes"?!smile.png

He doesn't have a source, he just made it up. Funny how those predicting (read hoping) the demise of Thailand always have a need to throw in a bunch of fictitious facts and figures just to make their point.

Sigh. Who is predicting the demise of thailand ? I'm talking about the past. If you cant see tourist areas over the last few years are much emptier than they used to be then you dont get out much.

Posted

I would think there will be a few performing rectal exercises right now and for others there may be a degree of uncertainty. For those totally legit and sorted the future I think looks very promising.

I don't agree,

I believe this is part of a drive to remove all foreigners from Thailand.

Which of us is right? We will have to wait and see.

You keep making comments like that and people are going to think you have some kind of paranoid personality disorder.

it is not a problem for me

it is a problem for you

Posted

I would think there will be a few performing rectal exercises right now and for others there may be a degree of uncertainty. For those totally legit and sorted the future I think looks very promising.

I don't agree,

I believe this is part of a drive to remove all foreigners from Thailand.

Which of us is right? We will have to wait and see.

Edit didnt read properly.

Posted

"You're quoting TAT figures" - fair point, but they are all that I have available to me for this decade. I know TAT figures are suspect, and that is why, for transparency, I stated the source.

Which (better?) source did you use in formulating your statement "As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that" -- or was your assertion a scientifiic conclusion reached by "your eyes"?!smile.png

He doesn't have a source, he just made it up. Funny how those predicting (read hoping) the demise of Thailand always have a need to throw in a bunch of fictitious facts and figures just to make their point.

Sigh. Who is predicting the demise of thailand ? I'm talking about the past. If you cant see tourist areas over the last few years are much emptier than they used to be then you dont get out much.

Well I can tell you that in Chiang Mai, the tourists keep flocking in....much to my dismay. We normally get a break during the slow season, but this year's slow season seems to be much busier than in previous years. And the high season is truly congested. And this is in the midst of the military coup. The demographics are changing as we're getting more and more Chinese tourists. Anyways, getting a bit OT. But I like what the Junta is doing.

Posted

I would think there will be a few performing rectal exercises right now and for others there may be a degree of uncertainty. For those totally legit and sorted the future I think looks very promising.

I don't agree,

I believe this is part of a drive to remove all foreigners from Thailand.

Which of us is right? We will have to wait and see.

You keep making comments like that and people are going to think you have some kind of paranoid personality disorder.

it is not a problem for me

it is a problem for you

A problem for me? Not sure what you mean. But if you think there's some sort of grand plan to remove all foreigners from Thailand, I'd say that's a bit paranoid.

Posted

A problem for me? Not sure what you mean. But if you think there's some sort of grand plan to remove all foreigners from Thailand, I'd say that's a bit paranoid.

Sorry BS, some sort of misunderstanding on your part.

I'm not a foreigner, nobody's' out to get me. (therefore not paranoid)

Mind you, if all the foreigners are forced out, doubt I would stay much longer.

Posted

A problem for me? Not sure what you mean. But if you think there's some sort of grand plan to remove all foreigners from Thailand, I'd say that's a bit paranoid.

Sorry BS, some sort of misunderstanding on your part.

I'm not a foreigner, nobody's' out to get me. (therefore not paranoid)

Mind you, if all the foreigners are forced out, doubt I would stay much longer.

What are you, Thai or have Thai citizenship?

Posted

It is reasonable to assume that there will be a massive spike in crime in Phuket in the coming months.

Here are just a few reasons why:

1. Tuk tuks have lost their income

2. The owners and staff of all of the beachside restaurants and bars have lost their income

3. The chair and umbrella vendors have lost their income

4. The beach boys (jet ski and watersport) vendores have lost their income

5. The owners and staff of all of the visa run companies have lost their income

6. The bargirls and girlfriends who have visa runner partners have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

7. In the next month the debts for gambling on the World Cup will be pursued by the loan sharks

8. Gold is at a historic low compared to recent years and many thai families have porned their gold to pay for start of school expenses

9. All of the ancillary businesses that support the beachside enterprises have lost their income. For example the guys that run into the seafood market in Phuket Town and/or Makro or super cheap Yai every day to run stock back out to the west coast

10. All of the ancillary businesses that support the Tuk and Taxi and visa run industry are gutted. I know a thai guy who has the bridgestone shop at Thalang. He told me the other day that his revenue has dropped 35 to 40 percent since the junta arrived in Phuket and his business is now trading below break even

11. Anyone renting a room or motorbike to a visa runner have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

It could be argued that the Bangkok elite don't like Phuket. Perhaps those in power prefer a feudal system where they keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer.

Everyone cheered the clearing of the west coast beaches in Phuket.

But the elephant in the room is that Phuket is now controlled by the Bangkok elite.

Be very careful what you wish for.

BD,

Thanks, this is the type of information that I was wondering about...as well as your mention of increase in crime being a likely outcome.

Cheers

Posted

"You're quoting TAT figures" - fair point, but they are all that I have available to me for this decade. I know TAT figures are suspect, and that is why, for transparency, I stated the source.

Which (better?) source did you use in formulating your statement "As for tourist numbers the truth is they have been falling for years anyone who opens their eyes can see that" -- or was your assertion a scientifiic conclusion reached by "your eyes"?!smile.png

He doesn't have a source, he just made it up. Funny how those predicting (read hoping) the demise of Thailand always have a need to throw in a bunch of fictitious facts and figures just to make their point.

Sigh. Who is predicting the demise of thailand ? I'm talking about the past. If you cant see tourist areas over the last few years are much emptier than they used to be then you dont get out much.

Well I can tell you that in Chiang Mai, the tourists keep flocking in....much to my dismay. We normally get a break during the slow season, but this year's slow season seems to be much busier than in previous years. And the high season is truly congested. And this is in the midst of the military coup. The demographics are changing as we're getting more and more Chinese tourists. Anyways, getting a bit OT. But I like what the Junta is doing.

If you look at the figures on the Wikipedia entry for tourism in Thailand - and I accept that they are TAT's figures but I'm unaware of another source - China has doubled it's tourist numbers into Thailand year after year from less than 800K in 2009 to 4.7 million in 2013. Given the size of that market, its not inconceivable that even more will eventually find their way to Thailand - whether it's this year or after the General has finished his reforms, I believe Thailand will eventually have to accommodate even more Chinese. I'll leave it to the mathematicians to add the numbers for Oz, the US, UK, Germany, France and Sweden from that 2013 listing but it's clear that the vast majority of the people TAT considers tourists are from Thailand's regional neighbours and not the countries most of us think of when we hear the term 'Farang'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand#Annual_statistics

Posted

A problem for me? Not sure what you mean. But if you think there's some sort of grand plan to remove all foreigners from Thailand, I'd say that's a bit paranoid.

Sorry BS, some sort of misunderstanding on your part.

I'm not a foreigner, nobody's' out to get me. (therefore not paranoid)

Mind you, if all the foreigners are forced out, doubt I would stay much longer.

You're not a foreigner in Thailand or you're not a foreigner in America ? I'm confused.

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