Effect of Junta on Thai's Personal Economy

[ClutchClark]

Well I can tell you that in Chiang Mai, the tourists keep flocking in....much to my dismay. We normally get a break during the slow season, but this year's slow season seems to be much busier than in previous years. And the high season is truly congested. And this is in the midst of the military coup. The demographics are changing as we're getting more and more Chinese tourists. Anyways, getting a bit OT. But I like what the Junta is doing.

If you look at the figures on the Wikipedia entry for tourism in Thailand - and I accept that they are TAT's figures but I'm unaware of another source - China has doubled it's tourist numbers into Thailand year after year from less than 800K in 2009 to 4.7 million in 2013. Given the size of that market, its not inconceivable that even more will eventually find their way to Thailand - whether it's this year or after the General has finished his reforms, I believe Thailand will eventually have to accommodate even more Chinese. I'll leave it to the mathematicians to add the numbers for Oz, the US, UK, Germany, France and Sweden from that 2013 listing but it's clear that the vast majority of the people TAT considers tourists are from Thailand's regional neighbours and not the countries most of us think of when we hear the term 'Farang'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand#Annual_statistics

Excellent post. Those numbers from China are remarkable.

[Naam]

Well I can tell you that in Chiang Mai, the tourists keep flocking in....much to my dismay. We normally get a break during the slow season, but this year's slow season seems to be much busier than in previous years. And the high season is truly congested. And this is in the midst of the military coup. The demographics are changing as we're getting more and more Chinese tourists. Anyways, getting a bit OT. But I like what the Junta is doing.

me too!

[robblok]

It is reasonable to assume that there will be a massive spike in crime in Phuket in the coming months.

Here are just a few reasons why:

1. Tuk tuks have lost their income

2. The owners and staff of all of the beachside restaurants and bars have lost their income

3. The chair and umbrella vendors have lost their income

4. The beach boys (jet ski and watersport) vendores have lost their income

5. The owners and staff of all of the visa run companies have lost their income

6. The bargirls and girlfriends who have visa runner partners have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

7. In the next month the debts for gambling on the World Cup will be pursued by the loan sharks

8. Gold is at a historic low compared to recent years and many thai families have porned their gold to pay for start of school expenses

9. All of the ancillary businesses that support the beachside enterprises have lost their income. For example the guys that run into the seafood market in Phuket Town and/or Makro or super cheap Yai every day to run stock back out to the west coast

10. All of the ancillary businesses that support the Tuk and Taxi and visa run industry are gutted. I know a thai guy who has the bridgestone shop at Thalang. He told me the other day that his revenue has dropped 35 to 40 percent since the junta arrived in Phuket and his business is now trading below break even

11. Anyone renting a room or motorbike to a visa runner have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

It could be argued that the Bangkok elite don't like Phuket. Perhaps those in power prefer a feudal system where they keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer.

Everyone cheered the clearing of the west coast beaches in Phuket.

But the elephant in the room is that Phuket is now controlled by the Bangkok elite.

Be very careful what you wish for.

BD,

Thanks, this is the type of information that I was wondering about...as well as your mention of increase in crime being a likely outcome.

Cheers

Typical doom thinking because they dont like the Junta.

Cleaning up Phuket will actually add more money in the pockets as tourist will come back.

Money that is not made by the businesses there will go to other legit businesses unless you think all the tourists will leave now the beaches finally are nicer without thugs.

Letting corruption flourish will ultimately drive tourists away.. the junta counters it and all of a sudden anti junta people moan.

It is true about the visa runners but that is about it.

Moving vendors in BKK will not magically mean spending will go down either people will spend their money somewhere else or follow the sellers. It might actually win a lot of money if traffic flows better. Yes some people will loose out while others will win. Net spending wont change. These vendors might actually end up with more money not having to pay too much corruption money.

[ClutchClark]

It is reasonable to assume that there will be a massive spike in crime in Phuket in the coming months.

Here are just a few reasons why:

1. Tuk tuks have lost their income

2. The owners and staff of all of the beachside restaurants and bars have lost their income

3. The chair and umbrella vendors have lost their income

4. The beach boys (jet ski and watersport) vendores have lost their income

5. The owners and staff of all of the visa run companies have lost their income

6. The bargirls and girlfriends who have visa runner partners have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

7. In the next month the debts for gambling on the World Cup will be pursued by the loan sharks

8. Gold is at a historic low compared to recent years and many thai families have porned their gold to pay for start of school expenses

9. All of the ancillary businesses that support the beachside enterprises have lost their income. For example the guys that run into the seafood market in Phuket Town and/or Makro or super cheap Yai every day to run stock back out to the west coast

10. All of the ancillary businesses that support the Tuk and Taxi and visa run industry are gutted. I know a thai guy who has the bridgestone shop at Thalang. He told me the other day that his revenue has dropped 35 to 40 percent since the junta arrived in Phuket and his business is now trading below break even

11. Anyone renting a room or motorbike to a visa runner have lost, or will very soon lose, their income

It could be argued that the Bangkok elite don't like Phuket. Perhaps those in power prefer a feudal system where they keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer.

Everyone cheered the clearing of the west coast beaches in Phuket.

But the elephant in the room is that Phuket is now controlled by the Bangkok elite.

Be very careful what you wish for.

BD,

Thanks, this is the type of information that I was wondering about...as well as your mention of increase in crime being a likely outcome.

Cheers

Typical doom thinking because they dont like the Junta.

Cleaning up Phuket will actually add more money in the pockets as tourist will come back.

Money that is not made by the businesses there will go to other legit businesses unless you think all the tourists will leave now the beaches finally are nicer without thugs.

Letting corruption flourish will ultimately drive tourists away.. the junta counters it and all of a sudden anti junta people moan.

It is true about the visa runners but that is about it.

Moving vendors in BKK will not magically mean spending will go down either people will spend their money somewhere else or follow the sellers. It might actually win a lot of money if traffic flows better. Yes some people will loose out while others will win. Net spending wont change. These vendors might actually end up with more money not having to pay too much corruption money.

I'm sorry...who doesn't like the Junta? Where diid you read that?

The only lack of support for the Junta I have read on TV is when they tried to close down the booze for a day ;-)

[Stradavarius37]

With regards to tourist figures I think it's going to be downhill all the way from here on in.

Every one of those visa runners entries counts as a tourist arriving.

I suspect the arrival figures are going to take a big hit over the next 3-6 months when compared with the figures from previous years.

Every time some random TV prognosticator predicts this - and every time tourism rebounds stronger than previously. You would think they would catch on by now....

Sent from my iPhone using ThaiVisa app