Hi,

Handy little tool that.

For the months you are talking about referring to the foreign currency reserves.

The highest in July 2012 was on 27th at 165,096 million. (Baht was 31.572)

The lowest in March 2013 was on the 29th at 167,728 million. (Baht was 29.302)

That is an increase of 1.6%.

This is possibly down in the noise of currency fluctuations as we have no idea how the forex mix at the BoT is comprised.

Where do you get the expected THB 0.7 billion of accruals each month?

Or am I somewhere off the track?

Yes you are off track, you're looking at the wrong line, use the numbers in the total line, I'm using the value of all holding in this category, not just notes but gold also, they all form part of the reserves!

"Let's take this one step at a time:

in July 2012 USD/THB stood at 31.55, in April 2013 it was worth 28.76. (any news article written in June 2014 is superfluous)

During the same period, FCY reserves were USD 182 bill. and USD 177 bill. respectively."

And the USD 0.7 bill accrual number represents on average the amount of monthly increase in the reserves over time, it's an historic number.

I have decided that the armchair experts on Thai Visa know as much as the "real experts" the other day i was listening to financial experts on Bloomberg discussing currencies and do you know not one of them could agree ,and these were the guys at the top running the money markets. so as i have said many times i am always 50% right ,the pound either goes up or down ,just like all currencies.

Hi,

Handy little tool that.

For the months you are talking about referring to the foreign currency reserves.

The highest in July 2012 was on 27th at 165,096 million. (Baht was 31.572)

The lowest in March 2013 was on the 29th at 167,728 million. (Baht was 29.302)

That is an increase of 1.6%.

This is possibly down in the noise of currency fluctuations as we have no idea how the forex mix at the BoT is comprised.

Where do you get the expected THB 0.7 billion of accruals each month?

Or am I somewhere off the track?

Yes you are off track, you're looking at the wrong line, use the numbers in the total line, I'm using the value of all holding in this category, not just notes but gold also, they all form part of the reserves!

"Let's take this one step at a time:

in July 2012 USD/THB stood at 31.55, in April 2013 it was worth 28.76. (any news article written in June 2014 is superfluous)

During the same period, FCY reserves were USD 182 bill. and USD 177 bill. respectively."

And the USD 0.7 bill accrual number represents on average the amount of monthly increase in the reserves over time, it's an historic number.

Hi,

Even if I use the total, the highest in July 2012 on the chart from the BoT was USD 175,296 million, not 182,000 million you gave.

By using the price of gold on the two dates I have calculated that the physical amount of gold did not change, so the 800 million increase in USD gold value was purely due to the gold price increase and should not be taken into the analysis. Similarly the SDR fluctuations are due to currency exchange rate movements, SDR's are very rarely bought/sold. The reserve position at the IMF has also not changed.

I cannot see any reason to include a monthly 0.7 billion accrual in the analysis, a regular month accrual is not evident in the figures.

Basically I cannot see any evidence of intervention by the BoT, the Baht strengthened because of demand for the currency.

I have decided that the armchair experts on Thai Visa know as much as the "real experts" the other day i was listening to financial experts on Bloomberg discussing currencies and do you know not one of them could agree ,and these were the guys at the top running the money markets. so as i have said many times i am always 50% right ,the pound either goes up or down ,just like all currencies.

I think it is indicative of the huge market in forex, indeed all financial instruments that are widely traded.

At any point in time the price is determined by buyers and sellers at the margin, which moves the price around.

If there was a consensus that the price would go up in six months, then the current price would rise as they all bought to make a profit until the price reached a level where there is once again a balance of views, and all the information available is included in the price, and we are left with only opinions.

Such as when the FED will raise interest rates. Nobody, not even the FED, knows when that will happen. There is no long term fixed plan. But there are any number of "experts" who "know" when it will happen, and they do not agree.

There is also the selection procedure on Bloomberg, if they selected "experts" who agreed, then it would be boring. So they make sure that they have "experts" with different views.