I Am Not Evil

[John K]

Lukamar,

this has nothing to do where you are from east, west, north, or south. It simply has to do with human instincts and subconscious response and that is indeed my area of expertise.

Right now it appears Thaksin has convinced himself that he is fighting a winning battle. He has become so easy to read I suspect young children could see this. When he acts arrogant and is back to his usual ways, he has just finished with some behind the scenes deal to keep him in power. When he is hiding he is not secure.

Although as simple as it sounds, if Thaksin was to see some polling results that suggest that his Isaan support is gone, he would then see it as a losing battle. Remember all he is trying to do is hold on until the next elections. If that prize is removed, Thaksin would change his tactics and probably make use of the military in some sort of martial law scenario the same as in southern Thailand. It is likely he would shut down the courts labeling them as corrupt all the while declaring he is single handedly protecting democracy. Unfortunately this does fit his style and I am sure many of you can see this as a possibility.

[lukamar]

As I said John.. Psychobabble in post after post. It looks as if you are trying to convince yourself of something or maybe you are just talking with yourself. Field of expertise or not, post after post of psychobabble is boring as h_ll for everyone that's not an "expert" in the field because it appears, even if not on purpose, that you talk down to everyone that does not share the same views as yourself.

[John K]

I understand what you are saying, I am just trying to make a reasonable prediction as to what may happen if some things change. Many of the things I listed in post #2 of Thaksin Returns As Pm thread have come true. That was done back in May (below). All I did was apply the same form of thinking as how the subconscious governs much of what we do and it allows a certain predictability of what a person might do.

I am not talking down or at least not deliberately, I am simply sharing my opinion the same as everyone else does. The only difference is I am blending in some professional views with personal views. Just as some of the news posts quote peoples professional view, you are hearing it from a TV poster. We debate what they say and compare western thinking to what is going on. Just think of what I post not as gospel but more as food for though, that is how I view it. I don’t know if other posters are applying any professional opinions to their posts, but if I feel it is appropriate to help understand to see what they are probably thinking and where things might go I will do so. I think it is a bit more exciting to predict what may happen as compared to talking about what did happen.

“Anti government rallies start again”

“PM moving his fortune out of reach of asset freezing”

“Government sanctioned police action escalates”

“Court rules against TRT”

“PM Thaksin indited”

“Democratic party HQ bombed again”

“Military intervenes”

“Political chaos hurts Thailand’s tourism”

“New EC seated”

“Election date set for late July”

[chownah]

How about that secret letter. Guess Toxin doesn't know how to send a message and keep it secret. Guess that proves he's incompetent.

OK, we're all done here. Toxin has been proven to be incompetent so we're running him through the shredder tomorrow. You can close this topic now.

Imaginations run wild in Thai politics.......and also in this thread...

[John K]

How about that secret letter. Guess Toxin doesn't know how to send a message and keep it secret. Guess that proves he's incompetent.

OK, we're all done here. Toxin has been proven to be incompetent so we're running him through the shredder tomorrow. You can close this topic now.

Imaginations run wild in Thai politics.......and also in this thread...

very true.

[penzman]

Now would it not be interesting that if a letter is produced, and then shortly after the USA produces the original that does not match. It certainly is a possibility that it will happen to clear the USA from being seen as meddling in Thai affairs. I suspect any letter that is produced will have a Thaksin twist in his favor.

If the letter is not produced by the USA , can it's content be known under the Freedom of Information Act?

How about that secret letter. Guess Toxin doesn't know how to send a message and keep it secret. Guess that proves he's incompetent.

OK, we're all done here. Toxin has been proven to be incompetent so we're running him through the shredder tomorrow. You can close this topic now.

Imaginations run wild in Thai politics.......and also in this thread...

The fact that he can't keep that letter secret doesn't prove his incompetence but the content of that letter may just prove that.

[John K]

Penzman;

I think it depends if it is classified or not, but I find it hard to think it would be classified as it is from another country. If it can’t be obtained then watch the US embassy’s website for information as to their take on the political situation.

http://bangkok.usembassy.gov/

[chownah]

I'm glad that this thread is back on topic and is discussing substantial political issues like the "charismatic" figure, the "secret" letter, and let's not forget the "Finland" plot. When these issues are resolved I do believe that the political air will be cleared and Thailand will have been made ready for Democracy once again.

[ando]

I'm glad that this thread is back on topic and is discussing substantial political issues like the "charismatic" figure, the "secret" letter, and let's not forget the "Finland" plot. When these issues are resolved I do believe that the political air will be cleared and Thailand will have been made ready for Democracy once again.

I guess its just because there seems to be a bit of a pause in news of proceedings right at the moment that those who wish to keep the momentum going are clutching onto these issues.

[John K]

Well people who have today off are still sleeping as the world cup finals are over. I suspect renewed vigor soon.

[hammered]

In the small and totally Thai village I live in in the East it may surprise that People now openly talk of Thaksin as various things usually prefixed with "ai" and often including references to lizards and acts that should not be performed with ones mother. One year ago if anyone criticized Thaksin they were likely to be beaten up or killed. Now even the local mafia have given up trying to enforce respect for the great one. This is in a province where every MP was TRT in the last real election. However, informattion is readily available and unlike in some places the loca cable TV was not cut. Just shows the power of information.

My goodness....what kind of people do you hang out with that talk that way in public. Where I live no respected Thai would exhibit such hot headedness in a public venue. Sounds like you are hanging out with some really sleazy people...mafia????

Actually at markets and vendors stools that is how it is discussed. The shall we say better educated people I know use different but equally abrasive condemantions. Lets not get into how the technical students describe him. The local mafia support him as do most local mafias.

The days where all Thai people did not diss authority are well over, and it is for the better if you ask me. Maybe you live in one of those villages where no uncensored information is allowed in and it is far too dangerous to evn say you dont like Thaksin. It used to be like that here one year ago. By the way that does not make everyone a democrat or PAD supporter or even anti some TRT politicaians. They just dont like Thaksin, and sometimes former supporters who feel they have been let down by someone are the most vociferous n the theri condemnation.

As a final comment I find it disturbing that anyone would think a Thai person who described Thaksin in a strong derogatory way as being sleazy. Not all parts of Thailand are the same, and the country is changing.

[ando]

I understand what you are saying, I am just trying to make a reasonable prediction as to what may happen if some things change. Many of the things I listed in post #2 of Thaksin Returns As Pm thread have come true. That was done back in May (below). All I did was apply the same form of thinking as how the subconscious governs much of what we do and it allows a certain predictability of what a person might do.

I am not talking down or at least not deliberately, I am simply sharing my opinion the same as everyone else does. The only difference is I am blending in some professional views with personal views. Just as some of the news posts quote peoples professional view, you are hearing it from a TV poster. We debate what they say and compare western thinking to what is going on. Just think of what I post not as gospel but more as food for though, that is how I view it. I don’t know if other posters are applying any professional opinions to their posts, but if I feel it is appropriate to help understand to see what they are probably thinking and where things might go I will do so. I think it is a bit more exciting to predict what may happen as compared to talking about what did happen.

“Anti government rallies start again”

“PM moving his fortune out of reach of asset freezing”

“Government sanctioned police action escalates”

“Court rules against TRT”

“PM Thaksin indited”

“Democratic party HQ bombed again”

“Military intervenes”

“Political chaos hurts Thailand’s tourism”

“New EC seated”

“Election date set for late July”

Another way of looking at it is that Thaksin is just a very smart businessman of Chinese decent who simply applied the tried and proven business practices acceptable in Thailand to a political career.

He ran the country like a CEO and took advantage of some of the perks of office as CEOs do everywhere. Overall, the country prospered under his leadership. However as the country moves more towards a true functioning democracy, some of his perks and methods are now being called into question. Thaksin was probably the right guy at the right time to lead the country, but now the country has moved on and evolved a little closer to becoming a true democracy and a little less of being a country ruled by the upper social class of the educated elite. The time for a leader like Thaksin in Thailand may have passed now, but the one thing he did teach academics and political elite is that in a democracy such as Thailand, in order to gain power, you must win the votes of the majority of people. And of course in Thailand where the wealthy elite have controlled just about everything in the past, that means a major shift in thinking. Not to mention a major shift in wealth distribution over time. Socialistic?-- Maybe. Democratic?-- Definitely. With the majority of Thailand's voters being the rural poor (not to mention the urban poor) the democratic process does pose some threat to the future of elite ruling class.

Handing the balance of democratic power to the poor uneducated masses at this point in time may be a bit of a gamble on the countries future, but it all depends on the elected politicians and the way they handle that power.

I see the country at a crossroads right now. Not just nutting out points of law in the courts to prevent further corruption, but at a point of social change where they can embrace democracy, warts and all, including the votes of the poor peasants. Or they can struggle along within the framework of democracy trying to preserve the old hierarchal power structure.

Thaksin, being primarily the business man that he is, saw the opportunity under the democratic process and exploited the rural vote to gain power. Something his opponents had failed to do.

Even now with a democratic power struggle going on Thaksins opponents disregard the rural poor vote as ill advised and instead concentrate on support from academics and urban elite in court battles and street protests.

[hammered]

On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest.

An interesting paragraph from a Nation article: Regional Perspective

[ando]

On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest.

An interesting paragraph from a Nation article: Regional Perspective

Read the link. As usual another frank and unbiased article from the Nation

Talk about media censorship? Looks more like free press with a very strong anti-government slant to me.

[hammered]

On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest.

An interesting paragraph from a Nation article: Regional Perspective

Read the link. As usual another frank and unbiased article from the Nation

Talk about media censorship? Looks more like free press with a very strong anti-government slant to me.

Before slating it. Read the first sentence in the quote and think about it. I posted this to give information not to start another round of pro or anti Thaksin rubbishing.

[ando]

On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest.

An interesting paragraph from a Nation article: Regional Perspective

Read the link. As usual another frank and unbiased article from the Nation

Talk about media censorship? Looks more like free press with a very strong anti-government slant to me.

Before slating it. Read the first sentence in the quote and think about it. I posted this to give information not to start another round of pro or anti Thaksin rubbishing.

Please note my comments were about the political flavour of the content in the link.

And not about your attempt to "give information".

Please feel free to give information and please don't take any personal offense if I criticize the source.

[hammered]

On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest.

An interesting paragraph from a Nation article: Regional Perspective

Read the link. As usual another frank and unbiased article from the Nation

Talk about media censorship? Looks more like free press with a very strong anti-government slant to me.

Before slating it. Read the first sentence in the quote and think about it. I posted this to give information not to start another round of pro or anti Thaksin rubbishing.

Please note my comments were about the political flavour of the content in the link.

And not about your attempt to "give information".

Please feel free to give information and please don't take any personal offense if I criticize the source.

OK

[jdinasia]

Being new to this village I am loathe to address politics TOO much with the locals ...

Jd you should get out there and educate all them new locals and sell them some PAD bumper stickers and bandannas. You you express strong views here, so it should be your duty to pass those thoughts along to all the villagers at every opportunity to protect democracy especially in the bars as I'm sure they would be open to you or maybe not

These folks aren't uneducated ... and compared to YOUR comments from Canada ... my comments are pretty tame If you read my WHOLE post instead of just quoting a tidbit of it you would see they were WATCHING Sondhi ... now that the TV isn't offlimits to the opposition.

JD I was making a joke, thus all the smiley faces. I like Chownah took your "but lots of expats and visitors to genuine night entertainment" comment incorrectly, probably just our totally wrong view of genuine expat Phuket night entertainment, and I also apologize.

Phuket Fantasea is in my village .... and not a gogo to be found

[chownah]

"On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest."

I wish H.M. The King a speedy and full recovery.

I think there is unanimous agreement that Oct. 15 is too soon for an election. There are clearly matters that must be resolved before it becomes clear just who might be allowed to contend in the next election.

Edited July 10, 2006 by chownah

[Martin]

Let's put a few bits side-by-side.

In post #101, 'hammered' said:

"Not all parts of Thailand are the same, and the country is changing."

Then, in post #102, 'ando' said:

"I see the country at a crossroads right now. Not just nutting out points of law in the courts to prevent further corruption, but at a point of social change where they can embrace democracy, warts and all, including the votes of the poor peasants. Or they can struggle along within the framework of democracy trying to preserve the old hierarchal power structure. "

Then, in post #103, 'ando' gives us the news that election has been put back.

My comments would be that Thailand has been dithering at this crossroads for 74 years, because not all parts of Thailand are the same. And Taksin's capture of the parliamentary democracy bit has caused a reaction from those who would like it continue on the hierarchical 'road'.

There is such a disjointedness about the parts that make up Thai society that an agreement (or stable stalemate) will probably have to be reached that dithering at the crossroads should carry on during the next generation. But even getting to that could well take months, and a good long period for parties (old or new) to sort themselves out would have to be allowed, before the election could be held.

And don't expect too much to happen even in another generation.

If you read Nils Mulder's book "Thai images", where he looks at what the official textbooks direct the teachers to teach to their pupils, you could conclude that the 'uneducated poor' are only going to become the 'miseducated poor'.

But what the heck. None of this has any effect on the growth of the rice, which is nearly all planted now, and looking well.

[hammered]

"On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest."

I wish H.M. The King a speedy and full recovery.

I think there is unanimous agreement that Oct. 15 is too soon for an election. There are clearly matters that must be resolved before it becomes clear just who might be allowed to contend in the next election.

I hope you are right about unanimous agreement although I recently read that the "Caravan of the Poor" intend mass demonstrations if the Oct 15 poll is not held.

[John K]

Ando, good read post #102. I particularly like

“He ran the country like a CEO and took advantage of some of the perks of office as CEOs do everywhere.”

That certainly did contribute to Thaksin’s problems. Thaksin forgot one very important thing.

At the border is does not say

“Thailand co. Ltd.”

It says

“Kingdom of Thailand.”

Where CEOs can and do take perks in companies, this is not a company. However again Thakin’s perception differs from reality and his perception may be ‘If I run it like a company certainly I can take company perks.’

Changing laws like changing company rules.

Disciplining employees who make trouble.

Moving employees around to maximize profits.

Placing employees who are good followers with management skills in top positions.

Offer incentive/bonus rewards to the workers who toe the company line.

All sound moves in a company and I would agree with them 100% if Thailand was a company. In fact if Thailand was a company I would be phrasing Thaksin because he is good at it. I can also see how he can say he is not evil if he thinks of himself as a CEO, because if he was there would be no issue. So again Thaksin’s perception differs from reality as apparently he sees Thailand as his company.

But simply the fact it is not and when I punch the clock at the end of my shift I want to be on my own time.

[Martin]

After the devaluation of the baht in 1997, and then Chuan's ineffectual government, I seem to remember a mood that said: "What we want is a competent CEO type of PM, not another incompetent political type."

And, of course, Thaksin was a very successful CEO.

However, parliamentary politics demands more than just CEO outlooks, attitudes and techniques.

So PAD got a case against him.

It is all very well pointing out the errors of Thaksin's ways, but I don't hear any name being mentioned as someone who would make a much better PM.

The bureaucracy are probably quite happy that in the end they will get either Thaksin and TRT with a majority (but Thaksin having had his wings well clipped) or a messy, ineffectual coalition.

Either way, the bureaucracy would be back in the saddle.

[John K]

I think the concept is sound however the part installed in Thailand malfunctioned and started requiring more and more power and resources to run.

The question remains is it general incompatibility mixing a CEO with government or just a bad part.

Ross Perot had the same concept when he was running for President of the USA. I wonder what that Presidency would have yielded if he was elected.

[slimdog]

"On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest."

I wish H.M. The King a speedy and full recovery.

I think there is unanimous agreement that Oct. 15 is too soon for an election. There are clearly matters that must be resolved before it becomes clear just who might be allowed to contend in the next election.

I join you in wishing HM a full and speedy recovery

I also concur that there are too many issues which really need to be cleared up prior to an election.

One of the things that I don't understand though is that on what is obviously a slow news days in regards to the current political crisis, not one paper picked up on the story, including the Nation, for whom the author of the piece is a deputy editor. Although they did decide to do two pieces on the women of "Blue Blood" who held a meeting last week demanding the name of the Charasmatic individual be revealed.

Unless of course I missed something..

[chownah]

Toxin may have used a CEO style of management in running the gov't (can't say that I know enough about exactly what style he used to be able to agree or disagree with this) but I don't really recall that his style of management was ever brought up as an issue in all these happenings at all. I think I remember that when the teachers first signed on to the demonstration circuit they had the simple complaint that they didn't like the decentralization of the educational system...the gov't wanted decisions to be made at the Chiangwat level and not at the national level....interesting because in the US it is generally accepted that most decisions *should* be made at the local level....but I digress here....my point is that this is not a management style issue...in fact it seems to me that to want to oust the PM because of this change in administrative structure is a bogus call..its just not an adequate reason in my opinion. Then there were the workers from some ministry that got combined with another ministry (was it the forest worker people?) who had this as their major complaint. This too is not a management style issue...its a reorganizational issue. Then there was the issue about the sale of the Shin Corp. shares....this is not management style either. There were also other people who were complaining about the gov't restrictions/censorship of the media. This is not management style either.

Seems like all of these things could have been done by any PM with any management style. I guess to me it doesn't see that his management style really has any direct bearing on the issues.....but it does make a really easy arguement if you just want to bash him.....not that I think that anyone here would just want to bash him......

[John K]

chownah;

I think the issue here is a CEO is the boss of a company and he only needs to answer to the board of directors. More or less a CEO is a dictator of a company. I suspect the thinking was Thaksin would take only the best qualities of being a CEO and apply them to a democracy when he was elected. Unfortunately Thaksin brought the whole package that turned out to be incompatible. I suspect that Thaksin is incapable of acting as a CEO without the full package. It took time for Thaksin to accumulate all his enemies. That was mostly done by people expecting a democratic response and ended up with the boss coming down on them with both feet.

[Old Man River]

After the devaluation of the baht in 1997, and then Chuan's ineffectual government....

Chuan's ineffectual government? There was nothing ineffectual about Chuan's government from an economic standpoint, which at the time they took office was the only thing on people's minds. During this crisis time (post 1997), the Thai economy strengthened under the Demo's, led primarily by export growth. The Chuan government eventually lost popularity because they did a poor job of communicating with the populace, perhaps resting on their laurels. Where the TRT promised the poor direct aid, the Demo's were talking about creating jobs through their construction programs. While economists figured this as a wash, the voting public saw it as vastly more attractive, and the TRT won by a landslide. However, the economy by this time was very much improved from when the Demo's first took office.

[Plus]

Thaksin's style of management is not the most important issue at the moment, but if people are interested...

It was analysed numerous times, notably in the Nation (where else), "Roo tan Thaksin" series of books, and in the books by that fashist, nationalist, ultra-right zealot chauvinist pig Pramual (in tribute to Colpyat who'd loudly protest if Pramual is called anything less).

Thaksin runs a country not like a western educated CEO would, but like Chinese run their families.

Ando, in your overview of Thailand at crossroads of democracy you mistakenly assumed that Thaksin is the first one who pandered to the rural voters. That was Chavalit - the PM who didn't win a single seat in Bangkok but carried Isan. Was forced to resign after baht devaluation, by the "elite". Actually people who joined PAD demonstratioins are not elite, or bureaucrats looking for lost power, that's another wrong assumption.

There was nothing democratic in the way Thaksin obtained all those rural votes, it was never "empowering the people" or "awakening of the masses". This concept was brought forward only when the PAD and law started catching up with Thaksin. Today he is the defender of democracy, last year "democracy was only a tool, not the end".

However, he deserves the credit for imaginative ways he bought all those votes - with people's own money!

[hammered]

Thaksin's style of management is not the most important issue at the moment, but if people are interested...

It was analysed numerous times, notably in the Nation (where else), "Roo tan Thaksin" series of books, and in the books by that fashist, nationalist, ultra-right zealot chauvinist pig Pramual (in tribute to Colpyat who'd loudly protest if Pramual is called anything less).

Thaksin runs a country not like a western educated CEO would, but like Chinese run their families.

Ando, in your overview of Thailand at crossroads of democracy you mistakenly assumed that Thaksin is the first one who pandered to the rural voters. That was Chavalit - the PM who didn't win a single seat in Bangkok but carried Isan. Was forced to resign after baht devaluation, by the "elite". Actually people who joined PAD demonstratioins are not elite, or bureaucrats looking for lost power, that's another wrong assumption.

There was nothing democratic in the way Thaksin obtained all those rural votes, it was never "empowering the people" or "awakening of the masses". This concept was brought forward only when the PAD and law started catching up with Thaksin. Today he is the defender of democracy, last year "democracy was only a tool, not the end".

However, he deserves the credit for imaginative ways he bought all those votes - with people's own money!

Little credit has been given to Mr. Thaksin for his use of state money in direct vote buying. Ths had never been done before and is unique. To buy votes without using your own money is an interesting concept, and according to the EC legal, which sets an interesting precedent. However, does any regard the EC as anything other than the slaves of Thaksin? Andof course Mr. Thaksin has a history of not wanting tio use his money for anything when the money of others can be used.