Most people happy with the junta

[visionchaser45]

I'm still waiting for the only meaningful poll; it's called a general election. That way, the truth can be known about how "happy" the majority is with the junta.

[whybother]

do you believe the poll?

The reporting of the poll leaves a lot to be desired. It would be good to have an English translation of the questions to actually know what was asked and what the available answers were (given that it was multiple choice).

Do I believe the general gist of the results? Yes. I reckon people are basically satisfied with what the junta are doing in government. Does that mean that a majority support the junta? No. It doesn't. That isn't what was asked.

[whybother]

I'm still waiting for the only meaningful poll; it's called a general election. That way, the truth can be known about how "happy" the majority is with the junta.

What would that prove? The junta won't be standing in any elections.

What is it with this "only one poll" crap? Polls are used for all sorts of things that have nothing to do with elections, or even politics. They are used to get information and statistically speaking, they are accurate.

They can also be designed to give the "right" results, but, at the very least, you can't comment on that unless you know what the questions are. Does anyone know what the questions of this poll were? Has anyone actually looked at the results of all the questions asked?

[catweazle]

Alllll rrrrrrighty then! If a uniformend man with a gun and unlimited power asks you if you like his "team" your choices for a suitable answer are rather limited I'd say...

[heybruce]

"Are you OK with Dusit polls when they match your expectations?" No.

"Or is it all Dusit polls you have a problem with?" No.

I never trust a poll conducted in a country under martial law with censorship.

Even under more benign circumstances, it's a lot easier to conduct an inaccurate, biased poll than an accurate, unbiased poll (post #16 gives an accurate illustration of one method to first determine the 'correct' poll result then design a poll to arrive at this result, but there are many others). That's why I only trust polls conducted by established companies in the business of polling; companies that have a reputation to maintain and that publish not only poll results but the poll itself, how participants were selected, and how the results were analyzed. How many polls in Thailand fit that description?

Suan Dusit IS an established pollster that has been conducting polls for many years.

Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll.

Maybe you should actually look for the source of the poll results rather than base your comments on a small report in a newspaper.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571411783417.pdf

Nothing in your link in any way refutes what I posted. Polling organizations established in a country where people pay for poll results, not accurate polls, are not credible polling organizations, and neither are their polls. You support that with your statement:

"Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll."

It seems I was correct in assuming that Dusit Poll was paid to produce a certain result.

There are polling organizations that have developed the expertise and earned a reputation for conducting accurate, unbiased polls. They are often commissioned to do research by groups interested in acquiring credible information. However I don't know if any such polling businesses exist in Thailand. With censorship in place they would not be allowed to do many types of polling if they did exist. They wouldn't be allowed to publish results critical of the junta.

"It seems I was correct in assuming that Dusit Poll was paid to produce a certain result. " It seems you make things up.

How do you know that Dusit hasn't "developed the expertise and earned a reputation for conducting accurate, unbiased polls"? They've been conducting polls for ages.

It's just that you don't like the result of this poll, even though you know nothing about what was asked or how it was conducted.

All you are doing is showing your bias.

I didn't make things up, I made a reasonable interpretation of your statement "Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll.". How did you mean for it to be interpreted?

As far as the credibility of Dusit, I would say that there is an inherent credibility problem when a polling organization is in a government university in a country under martial law with censorship and criticism of the junta banned.

You are correct that I don't know how the poll was conducted, which is one of the problems with it. As I wrote earlier:

"That's why I only trust polls conducted by established companies in the business of polling; companies that have a reputation to maintain and that publish not only poll results but the poll itself, how participants were selected, and how the results were analyzed."

Has Dusit made their polling methods public? Information such as how were people selected for the poll, how were questions presented to them, how were the questions to be asked decided upon, how was data analyzed, what was the statistical margin of error, etc.; is this available anywhere? Has the poll and the methods of conducting the poll been published so other organizations can review and critique it?

Finally, don't you find it just a little suspicious that since the coup and since criticism of the coup and junta were made illegal, every poll has shown overwhelming support for the junta? Yet in spite of this overwhelming support calls for elections are also illegal.

[Jim walker]

I am sure you would get the same result or an even higher approval rating in North Korea.

[ThailandNoob]

While i am always dubious about poll results, if memory serves me most of the country were quite happy with the 2006 coup. It took 4 years, 3 governments, a horde of Thaksin's propagandists spreading half truths and outright lies, and bucket loads of money before any serious opposition was voiced.

Your memory has left out the fact that, in the next year, the electorate voted for the "wrong" political party (i.e. a Red one).

Sent from my IS11T using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[halloween]

While i am always dubious about poll results, if memory serves me most of the country were quite happy with the 2006 coup. It took 4 years, 3 governments, a horde of Thaksin's propagandists spreading half truths and outright lies, and bucket loads of money before any serious opposition was voiced.

Your memory has left out the fact that, in the next year, the electorate voted for the "wrong" political party (i.e. a Red one).

Sent from my IS11T using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I remember it well, and the difficulty of campaigning when labelled as a murderer. In light of recent arrests, it seems that label is to be re-applied to where it rightly belongs. Won't that be fun.

[jpeg]

IMO, there is very little chance of an openly "military backed party" going into the next election.

Military 'backed' Let no one delude themselves that this country has, to all intents and purposes, been run by anyone other than the military for very many years

[heybruce]

"Are you OK with Dusit polls when they match your expectations?" No.

"Or is it all Dusit polls you have a problem with?" No.

I never trust a poll conducted in a country under martial law with censorship.

Even under more benign circumstances, it's a lot easier to conduct an inaccurate, biased poll than an accurate, unbiased poll (post #16 gives an accurate illustration of one method to first determine the 'correct' poll result then design a poll to arrive at this result, but there are many others). That's why I only trust polls conducted by established companies in the business of polling; companies that have a reputation to maintain and that publish not only poll results but the poll itself, how participants were selected, and how the results were analyzed. How many polls in Thailand fit that description?

Suan Dusit IS an established pollster that has been conducting polls for many years.

Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll.

Maybe you should actually look for the source of the poll results rather than base your comments on a small report in a newspaper.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571411783417.pdf

Nothing in your link in any way refutes what I posted. Polling organizations established in a country where people pay for poll results, not accurate polls, are not credible polling organizations, and neither are their polls. You support that with your statement:

"Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll."

It seems I was correct in assuming that Dusit Poll was paid to produce a certain result.

There are polling organizations that have developed the expertise and earned a reputation for conducting accurate, unbiased polls. They are often commissioned to do research by groups interested in acquiring credible information. However I don't know if any such polling businesses exist in Thailand. With censorship in place they would not be allowed to do many types of polling if they did exist. They wouldn't be allowed to publish results critical of the junta.

"It seems I was correct in assuming that Dusit Poll was paid to produce a certain result. " It seems you make things up.

How do you know that Dusit hasn't "developed the expertise and earned a reputation for conducting accurate, unbiased polls"? They've been conducting polls for ages.

It's just that you don't like the result of this poll, even though you know nothing about what was asked or how it was conducted.

All you are doing is showing your bias.

I didn't make things up, I made a reasonable interpretation of your statement "Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll.". How did you mean for it to be interpreted?

As far as the credibility of Dusit, I would say that there is an inherent credibility problem when a polling organization is in a government university in a country under martial law with censorship and criticism of the junta banned.

You are correct that I don't know how the poll was conducted, which is one of the problems with it. As I wrote earlier:

"That's why I only trust polls conducted by established companies in the business of polling; companies that have a reputation to maintain and that publish not only poll results but the poll itself, how participants were selected, and how the results were analyzed."

Has Dusit made their polling methods public? Information such as how were people selected for the poll, how were questions presented to them, how were the questions to be asked decided upon, how was data analyzed, what was the statistical margin of error, etc.; is this available anywhere? Has the poll and the methods of conducting the poll been published so other organizations can review and critique it?

Finally, don't you find it just a little suspicious that since the coup and since criticism of the coup and junta were made illegal, every poll has shown overwhelming support for the junta? Yet in spite of this overwhelming support calls for elections are also illegal.

They did publish the methods and results. It's all available online. I linked to it earlier.

Do you even know if the government commissioned the poll?

I think posters are going a bit overboard with the "no criticism" stuff. There has been articles being critical of the government. The criticism hasn't been along the lines of "they're unelected and shouldn't be there", but has discussed some of their decisions.

Do you mean this link http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571411783417.pdf ? That looks like a one page summary of the poll results. Does it answer the questions I underlined above?

I don't know if the government sponsored the poll or if Dusit Polls of Ratchabhat University is being a good lapdog to the new boss, but I seriously doubt that a government university would conduct and publish a poll criticizing this government under these circumstances. By the way, if your link really described poll results and methods it would also describe the motivation behind the poll and who sponsored it.

'Criticism' of the junta has been limited to carefully chosen words stating the obvious, with some subject areas completely off-limits. Without censorship this would be a much more lively debate, and I suspect the polls would not be consistently pro-government.

[rametindallas]

1500 off people is a tiny fraction Of the people in Bangkok and a minuscule part of the entire population. Of you did this poll Out in red country then the results would be different. Anyone trying to use this to gauge the opinion of the entire population Or for some kind of red/yellow point scoring is an idiot

You couldn't conduct an independent poll in 'Red Country'. Bully boys would break it up and intimidate anyone from participating.

1500 off people is a tiny fraction Of the people in Bangkok and a minuscule part of the entire population

Others suggest that a poll with a random sample of 1,000 people has margin of sampling error of 3% for the estimated percentage of the whole population. A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the 95% confidence interval of the sample estimate plus or minus 3%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll

[chotthee]

I am happy.

I am very happy.

With the SET index hitting 1,600 points, I am so very very happy.

Thanks PM Prayuth for making the stock price raise.

[elliss]

History has proved , Democracy has no meaning or value in Thailand .

LONG LIVE THE JUNTA.

[tbthailand]

do you believe the poll?

The reporting of the poll leaves a lot to be desired. It would be good to have an English translation of the questions to actually know what was asked and what the available answers were (given that it was multiple choice).

Do I believe the general gist of the results? Yes. I reckon people are basically satisfied with what the junta are doing in government. Does that mean that a majority support the junta? No. It doesn't. That isn't what was asked.

so I agree with you in a certain way.

it does depend on the questions - as you point out.

surely there are people who are satisfied with the actions of the government - I call it the 'make the trains run on time effect' - so when people see the junta tow away broken down cars and the like, they think 'that's OK'. And they are right, it is OK.

And it is OK to make sure that infrastructure projects are done, and that the basic things in the country get done. That job comes along with the putsch.

Your point about supporting / not supporting the junta is valid - if you ask people 'is it a good thing to clean up clunkers in Bangkok' then the positive/negative answers have nothing to do with the authority behind the activity.

if the question were asked, 'are you happy with the NCPO?', then I think you would get a lot of false-positives.

[tbthailand]

While i am always dubious about poll results, if memory serves me most of the country were quite happy with the 2006 coup. It took 4 years, 3 governments, a horde of Thaksin's propagandists spreading half truths and outright lies, and bucket loads of money before any serious opposition was voiced.

they were so happy with the coup that the first election saw the democrats win in a landslide.

[tbthailand]

Well excuse me,

They wont ? how do you know that ? After the 1992 election Chart Thai and Samakkhi Tham Party and a few other smaller parties joined together to form a government. They nominated 1991 coup leader which had lead to protests and dozens of deaths in a crackdown.

The military are very used to getting involved in politics here. In late 2008 the Democrat-led government was formed in the military barracks.

A new military backed party is actually very plausible. If a political party is military backed in any election then what would you call it, a coalition i suppose ?

Why would there be any other result to a poll in a country still under martial law and rules that say dissent or bad press is not allowed ?

Why would a polls results be allowed to show anything other than positive happiness under the current circumstances ?

Are you saying a different result would be allowed to be published that break clear rules on criticism ?

Or that Dusit would publish anyway if a poll of theirs showed otherwise and break the Juntas current orders ?

Why do your posts in these type of threads always try to allude credibility to the implausible ? the whole countries circumstance and restrictions makes any findings printed being dependable very questionable indeed.

In 1992, the coup leader was appointed PM after the election. It wasn't an election in 2008, it was only a parliamentary vote.

IMO, there is very little chance of an openly "military backed party" going into the next election.

If a poll resulted in bad news for the government, they may not publish it, but that doesn't mean there is anything wrong with the poll.

Well, maybe, it depends on your perspective of 'military-backed party'

IMO the democrats will participate in what ever election is held whenever that might be. And if Abisit is not a tottering old man, he might even be leading the ticket for the dems

[tbthailand]

Years of suppression on a multitude of subjects make them cautious. You too dim to work it out?

If I had your apparent IQ, I wouldn't go around calling anyone 'dim'.

Thais are a proud people and are not serfs anymore. Is 'cautious' another word for 'fearful'? Where were you when Thai people were standing up for their beliefs over the first half of this year? They sure didn't see too 'cautious' to me. You must live in an alternate Thai Universe than the one I do.

with all due respect, the people 'standing up for their beliefs' over the first half of this year were the ones telling the serfs to get back in line and behave themselves as they have for (literally) centuries. And you are right, they were not cautious about it, in fact they were rather bold about it and did not hide their calls for an 'intervention' - which was then duly delivered.

what was that other comment about 'dim'?

I'm not due any respect but thank you for the politeness.

You mean to tell me that all those UDD rallies were to tell the serfs to get back in line? It seems to me, and I have newspaper's photos of large gatherings of Red Shirts, there were lots of UDD members who proudly and openly supported the Yingluck government. Where were you? Do you believe Thais are reticent 'serfs'? I don't. I have a high opinion of Thai people or else I wouldn't live among them.

It seems to me you proved my point that Thai people are bold enough to answer an anonymous poll/survey. Now, who's dim?

no, I mean to say the PDRC rallies.

Which ones did you actually mean in your original post?

as for polls, I would guess that some people are smart enough to provide the expected answer which may or may not represent their real opinion

[mikemac]

I doubt if I ever saw a poll that went against the Shin regime when they were in power. Were polls even allowed back then ? Real polls I mean, not Shin organized polls.

Only the most foolish of fools could put forward an argument that there was greater censorship and suppression of free speech under the Shinawatras than there currently is.

Seems like you insulted me for nothing, unless you were just trolling for a bite. But please explain to the audience how you came to the conclusion that I "put forward an argument that there was greater censorship and suppression of free speech under the Shinawatras than there currently is."

I did not mention censorship or suppression of free speech, my post was about polls, which I mentioned four times.

I believe you are handling the truth carelessly.

[heybruce]

"Are you OK with Dusit polls when they match your expectations?" No.

"Or is it all Dusit polls you have a problem with?" No.

I never trust a poll conducted in a country under martial law with censorship.

Even under more benign circumstances, it's a lot easier to conduct an inaccurate, biased poll than an accurate, unbiased poll (post #16 gives an accurate illustration of one method to first determine the 'correct' poll result then design a poll to arrive at this result, but there are many others). That's why I only trust polls conducted by established companies in the business of polling; companies that have a reputation to maintain and that publish not only poll results but the poll itself, how participants were selected, and how the results were analyzed. How many polls in Thailand fit that description?

Suan Dusit IS an established pollster that has been conducting polls for many years.

Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll.

Maybe you should actually look for the source of the poll results rather than base your comments on a small report in a newspaper.

http://dusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polldata/2557/25571411783417.pdf

Nothing in your link in any way refutes what I posted. Polling organizations established in a country where people pay for poll results, not accurate polls, are not credible polling organizations, and neither are their polls. You support that with your statement:

"Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll."

It seems I was correct in assuming that Dusit Poll was paid to produce a certain result.

There are polling organizations that have developed the expertise and earned a reputation for conducting accurate, unbiased polls. They are often commissioned to do research by groups interested in acquiring credible information. However I don't know if any such polling businesses exist in Thailand. With censorship in place they would not be allowed to do many types of polling if they did exist. They wouldn't be allowed to publish results critical of the junta.

"It seems I was correct in assuming that Dusit Poll was paid to produce a certain result. " It seems you make things up.

How do you know that Dusit hasn't "developed the expertise and earned a reputation for conducting accurate, unbiased polls"? They've been conducting polls for ages.

It's just that you don't like the result of this poll, even though you know nothing about what was asked or how it was conducted.

All you are doing is showing your bias.

I didn't make things up, I made a reasonable interpretation of your statement "Companies that are paid to poll are in the business of producing the results of who ever is paying them for the poll.". How did you mean for it to be interpreted?

As far as the credibility of Dusit, I would say that there is an inherent credibility problem when a polling organization is in a government university in a country under martial law with censorship and criticism of the junta banned.

You are correct that I don't know how the poll was conducted, which is one of the problems with it. As I wrote earlier:

"That's why I only trust polls conducted by established companies in the business of polling; companies that have a reputation to maintain and that publish not only poll results but the poll itself, how participants were selected, and how the results were analyzed."

Has Dusit made their polling methods public? Information such as how were people selected for the poll, how were questions presented to them, how were the questions to be asked decided upon, how was data analyzed, what was the statistical margin of error, etc.; is this available anywhere? Has the poll and the methods of conducting the poll been published so other organizations can review and critique it?

Finally, don't you find it just a little suspicious that since the coup and since criticism of the coup and junta were made illegal, every poll has shown overwhelming support for the junta? Yet in spite of this overwhelming support calls for elections are also illegal.

They did publish the methods and results. It's all available online. I linked to it earlier.

Do you even know if the government commissioned the poll?

I think posters are going a bit overboard with the "no criticism" stuff. There has been articles being critical of the government. The criticism hasn't been along the lines of "they're unelected and shouldn't be there", but has discussed some of their decisions.

"I think posters are going a bit overboard with the "no criticism" stuff."

I just came across this while looking for something else:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/26/thailand-politics-idUSL4N0P71F020140626

[millwall_fan]

http://www.reuters.c...N0P71F020140626

this link from Bruce, illustrates my point

[metisdead]

Off topic posts waffling on about previous juntas have been removed as well as the replies. Inflammatory posts and replies have been removed..

And some posts containing comments that are negative toward the imposition of Martial Law have been removed as well.

[jaideeguy]

And if they took polls during the first few months of any previous administrations, the results would have been quite the same.

Every thing or person starts off favorable, like many xgirlfriends etc in the beginning. Time is the real proof.

My TOT internet connection was the best I've ever had anywhere, but now it's slow as S#&t.

[halloween]

While i am always dubious about poll results, if memory serves me most of the country were quite happy with the 2006 coup. It took 4 years, 3 governments, a horde of Thaksin's propagandists spreading half truths and outright lies, and bucket loads of money before any serious opposition was voiced.

they were so happy with the coup that the first election saw the democrats win in a landslide.

You missed the point, probably intentionally, although one shouldn't put down to malice that which can be explained by incompetence or stupidity.

The 2006 insurgency was purportedly a protest against the coup, even though there had been an election since, which as you correctly insinuate, was won by PPP before they were caught committing bribery. Possibly this was because explaining the machinations of multi-party democracy was a bit too difficult for the target audience. "Coup' and "B500/day" they could manage.

[belg]

most people happy, the rest don't care for nothing and just keep on watching their thai soap operas on tv

Edited September 29, 2014 by belg

[tbthailand]

While i am always dubious about poll results, if memory serves me most of the country were quite happy with the 2006 coup. It took 4 years, 3 governments, a horde of Thaksin's propagandists spreading half truths and outright lies, and bucket loads of money before any serious opposition was voiced.

they were so happy with the coup that the first election saw the democrats win in a landslide.

You missed the point, probably intentionally, although one shouldn't put down to malice that which can be explained by incompetence or stupidity.

The 2006 insurgency was purportedly a protest against the coup, even though there had been an election since, which as you correctly insinuate, was won by PPP before they were caught committing bribery. Possibly this was because explaining the machinations of multi-party democracy was a bit too difficult for the target audience. "Coup' and "B500/day" they could manage.

"the machinations of multi-party democracy was a bit too difficult for the target audience. "Coup' and "B500/day" they could manage."

do you enjoy denigrating the Thai people that way?

[rametindallas]

And if they took polls during the first few months of any previous administrations, the results would have been quite the same.

Every thing or person starts off favorable, like many xgirlfriends etc in the beginning. Time is the real proof.

My TOT internet connection was the best I've ever had anywhere, but now it's slow as S#&t.

That last typhoon damaged the sub-sea Internet cable. That is why your Internet connection is slow. No government actually regulates speed; just content.

[jaideeguy]

And if they took polls during the first few months of any previous administrations, the results would have been quite the same.

Every thing or person starts off favorable, like many xgirlfriends etc in the beginning. Time is the real proof.

My TOT internet connection was the best I've ever had anywhere, but now it's slow as S#&t.

That last typhoon damaged the sub-sea Internet cable. That is why your Internet connection is slow. No government actually regulates speed; just content.

Wrong ram.....................my TOT started slowing for 6 months before the coup due to them over selling their capacity to serve and maintain.

Then it dropped like a rock just after the coup with the military throttling/censoring the feed up and down.

And, you're wrong in that they maybe don't regulate speed, but when they censor traffic, it slows...........ask the experts if you don't believe me.

[rametindallas]

And if they took polls during the first few months of any previous administrations, the results would have been quite the same.

Every thing or person starts off favorable, like many xgirlfriends etc in the beginning. Time is the real proof.

My TOT internet connection was the best I've ever had anywhere, but now it's slow as S#&t.

That last typhoon damaged the sub-sea Internet cable. That is why your Internet connection is slow. No government actually regulates speed; just content.

Wrong ram.....................my TOT started slowing for 6 months before the coup due to them over selling their capacity to serve and maintain.

Then it dropped like a rock just after the coup with the military throttling/censoring the feed up and down.

And, you're wrong in that they maybe don't regulate speed, but when they censor traffic, it slows...........ask the experts if you don't believe me.

Wondering Why Your Internet Is Exceptionally Slow? Here’s Why!

http://www.intellasia.net/wondering-why-your-internet-is-exceptionally-slow-heres-why-390562

It's supposed to be repaired by 6 October.

What purpose does it serve for the NCPO to slow down the Internet for all of Thailand?

Who are the experts that I should ask (not that I don't totally believe you)?

[whybother]

"I think posters are going a bit overboard with the "no criticism" stuff."

I just came across this while looking for something else:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/26/thailand-politics-idUSL4N0P71F020140626

There is an article in the Bangkok Post entitled "NRC picks stir barrage of criticism" which states that PTP and red shirts have voiced concern. I assume they're all in jail now. Or not.

[whybother]

http://www.reuters.c...N0P71F020140626

this link from Bruce, illustrates my point

"the military would monitor reports that were false or posed a threat to national security."

That's a big step away from arresting people criticising the government.