Dr Seri predicts Bangkok may face another big flood in 2018

[webfact]

Dr Seri predicts Bangkok may face another big flood in 2018

BANGKOK: -- A wellknown water expert has predicted that Bangkok is likely to face with a big flood in the next four years.

Dr Seri Suptharathit, director of the Centre on Climate Change and Disaster of Rangsit University, who shot to fame for his accurate flood forecasts and for his role in Bangkok’s big flood in 2011, pointed out that rains would become more intense in Bangkok and most parts of the country ten years from now.

Citing the case of rains in Bangkok a few days ago, he said that the rains were so intense that within 15 minutes several low-lying areas in Bangkok were flooded.

Compounded with the problem of clogged or substandard drainage system and several low-lying areas, he predicted that Bangkok could be heavily flooded in the next four years from now unless the drainage system is improved extensively.

He also stressed the need for good coordination among agencies responsible for dealing with flood problem and public participation in addressing the flooding problem.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/dr-seri-predicts-bangkok-may-face-another-big-flood-2018/


-- Thai PBS 2014-10-02

[daoyai]

There will be future rains and floods, ........yes.

[kalbo123]

Good to know this in advance, they can have the boats lined up then pushing the water towards the sea..

[Costas2008]

He did predict the floods by 2018, any predictions on this government or any future government doing anything to prevent BKK from flooding?

Me not think so................

[SPB65]

I wonder how much he's getting paid for spouting the obvious.

I predict it's going to be quite hot in Thailand. The invoice will be in the post shortly.

[Commerce]

He did predict the floods by 2018, any predictions on this government or any future government doing anything to prevent BKK from flooding?

Me not think so................

Why BKK only? Why not the whole darned country?

[Pib]

I predict daily sunshine and nightly darkness between now and 2018.

[Bender]

seri was the guy, that few months ago, claimed that asian people are more smart than westerner... i dont know how this guy become a doctor

[IamNoone88]

He predicts floods by 2018. I predict a huge budget to prevent it………...

[KIWIBATCH]

I am predicting that I will go the 7/11 shop within the next 15 minutes...as I am out of cigarettes and beer

[Robby nz]

I see the usual no nothing knockers are out in force, perhaps if you tried reading a bit about global weather cycles you may be able to make sensible posts.

Hear we have someone who has shown by past performance that he knows what he is talking about.

I suspect he has looked at past history of flood events in the Chao Phraya River basin in particular, and correlated them with the El Niano and La Nina years and their intensity.

Recorded flood history as per such :

These are river level records at Singburi and as you can see there is a fairly even gap between flood levels except in the 2010 and 2011 years when the river was at its highest on record, there will also be records going back before then which he could access.

So with knowledge it is not to difficult to get quite a good prediction of when floods will happen again.

It should be noted that population has expanded in the times of these records and cities and walls have been built which has restricted river flows and prevented the natural flood plain effect which makes flooding worse by limiting where the water can go.

There will also be those who will cite global warming as (the) a culprit.

[tomross46]

If you know it will happen, what actions will you take to prevent it? I am taking about Thailand not just Bangkok. Pathumtani and Ayuthaya were flooded to protect Bangkok. Manufacturers lost billions of dollars because, we must protect Bangkok.

[Gunna]

Bangkok may face another big flood in 2018

he predicted that Bangkok could be heavily flooded in the next four years from now

I think he meant in any of the next 4 years

All it will take is something similar to 2011 when early monsoon rains filled the dams and then a late deluge when there is no storage capacity left and they have to release all the water and Bangkok could be flooded in any year, particularly if the rivers and canals are not cleared of rubbish and vegetation.

In 2011 if there was capacity left to store water in the dams, Bangkok wouldn't have been badly flooded.

The same thing happened in Queensland Australia about the same time when there were huge floods when the dams overflowed

[Captain_Bob]

Not to worry, just fire up the 1000 boats again ;-)

http://youtu.be/S8rGe0m-N_o

[Nuddy]

I cannot believe that anyone would defend this guy Robbie NZ.

The water from the North of Bangkok drains through Bangkok.

(The water from the North East mostly drains to the Mekong.)

So once the dams are full all the water excess is coming to Bk.

This guy says Big flood 2018. Anyone could say that.

I say it will flood in Thailand next year, thats after the currently flooded areas are fixed a bit.

Why predict a flood?

It would be the smarter to predict how to fix flooding.

Regards

[The Deerhunter]

He probably just worked out based on existing intl weather records when the next "el Nino" weather pattern is due to develop. That will probably be the next year Bangkok floods again. If I did a Wiki or Google search in 10 mins or less I could also probably be just as clever & predict the same. If it is a year early or late he will still say "I got it mostly right. My reputation is intact." Clean out than damned Hyacinth for a start & keep it clear. Dredge the troublesome parts and any narrow parts of the rivers

Edited October 2, 2014 by The Deerhunter

[trogers]

More paved surfaces to catch rainfall due to housing development, but the same old clogged up catchments and drainage system.

How can one go wrong with such a prediction?

[nong38]

10 years from now is 2018, says it all......................I rest my case my Lord!

[whybother]

He must have the same 8 ball as I do.

When I asked, "Will it flood in 2018?".

It responded with:

[whybother]

10 years from now is 2018, says it all......................I rest my case my Lord!

Case dismissed:

"he predicted that Bangkok could be heavily flooded in the next four years from now"

[phil2407]

The new Nostradamus - thailand gets flooded in parts every single year _ yet still water shortage - they've lived here so long just life and still not do - always Spanish - manyana - tomorrow

[Benmart]

Plenty of posters predict all sorts of things. I wonder how many are bashing this man for making his own predictions?

[londonthai]

"Dr Seri Suptharathit, director of the Centre on Climate Change and Disaster of Rangsit University, who shot to fame " - google brings only 4 results for his name, all related to this press release. Is his name transcribed properly?

[Ulic]

No news here Bangkok has flooded in the past and it will flood again in the future.

Of course clearing drainage will help but Bangkok is prone to flooding and as it sinks

things will slowly get worse.

[ezzra]

He comes across like a biblical profit... and now we need to get Russell crow and play Noah

again and build us an ark....

Edited October 2, 2014 by ezzra

[rickirs]

"... who shot to fame for his accurate flood forecasts and for his role in Bangkok’s big flood in 2011."

It's odd that I cannot find anywhere on the internet (including TV) about Dr. Seri's shooting to fame for accurate flood forecasts or even his role in the Bangkok 2011 flood. What I did find is that from January to September of 2011, the monthly totals for average rainfall far surpassed the average monthly rainfall for the last 30 years. This was in contrast to the monsoon season of 2010, which dropped so little rain on the country as to cause a drought. No one specifiaclly predicted such an event; I doubt anyone could have made such a prediction for Bangkok as what actually happened defied statistical probability.

There was a general prediction made however for years beyond 2010. A 2010 joint World Bank-Asian Development Bank report projected that Bangkok’s flood-prone areas will experience more extreme weather, and a 2009 ADP report held that Thailand is already experiencing more frequent and destructive extreme weather events than in the past. The flood event that hit Bangkok in 2011 was later to be judged to have been a 50-100 year flood not previously experienced in the area; again this would defy specific predictability of occurrence for 2011.

Can someone provide references that Dr. Seri is "famous for his accurate flood forecasts" and what his role was in Bangkok's 2011 flood?

[whybother]

"... who shot to fame for his accurate flood forecasts and for his role in Bangkok’s big flood in 2011."

It's odd that I cannot find anywhere on the internet (including TV) about Dr. Seri's shooting to fame for accurate flood forecasts or even his role in the Bangkok 2011 flood. What I did find is that from January to September of 2011, the monthly totals for average rainfall far surpassed the average monthly rainfall for the last 30 years. This was in contrast to the monsoon season of 2010, which dropped so little rain on the country as to cause a drought. No one specifiaclly predicted such an event; I doubt anyone could have made such a prediction for Bangkok as what actually happened defied statistical probability.

There was a general prediction made however for years beyond 2010. A 2010 joint World Bank-Asian Development Bank report projected that Bangkok’s flood-prone areas will experience more extreme weather, and a 2009 ADP report held that Thailand is already experiencing more frequent and destructive extreme weather events than in the past. The flood event that hit Bangkok in 2011 was later to be judged to have been a 50-100 year flood not previously experienced in the area; again this would defy specific predictability of occurrence for 2011.

Can someone provide references that Dr. Seri is "famous for his accurate flood forecasts" and what his role was in Bangkok's 2011 flood?

Search on google for "Dr Seri flood". https://www.google.co.th/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#newwindow=1&q=dr+seri+flood

The first 3 were this article. The rest were about his 2011 predictions.

Given that it took 3 months for the northern flood waters to reach Bangkok, it was entirely predictable. Ayutthaya was flooded for a month or more before the flood waters reached Bangkok.

Who in their right mind couldn't predict that Bangkok wasn't going to flood ... oh wait ... the government at the time said that it wasn't going to flood two weeks before they told everyone that they should go on a holiday out of Bangkok.