Prayut must stay on as PM until problems solved: survey

[Fatty123]

Perhaps ginjag's deranged, hateful and profoundly stupid posts can be merged with the what-Thais-hate-about-foreigners thread. That would seem to be their natural home.

There were a lot more like him baying for a coup earlier in the year. The more sensible ones realised that most would change their minds soon enough. Anyone with a brain realises that coups are never the answer. No matter bad the government may be. It's up to the electorate to vote them out. Not to be ousted at gunpoint with weapons paid for by them to protect their democratic rights.

It's like paying a security guard to protect your home and family. He then takes the gun, holds you and your family at gunpoint and takes your house. He then orders you about and punishes you if you don't agree with his every word/command. Make sure you smile, too. He wants you to be realy p..ed off, but wants you to force a smile for him.

This ginjag chap needs a good lie down. And yes. PT were self serving rubbish on the whole (although they did more for poorer Thais than any other party in Thai history), but a coup is never the answer. The foamers answer to that are the rants about civil war and red terrorists. Forgetting the fact that is was the PDRC that started the kerfuffle with their rabble rousing speakers. Using 'you know what' as an excuse, when 99.9% of reds support 'you know what'. Mouthing off in speeches about them being uneducated simpletons and that their votes shouldn't count. Stopping elections. Closing down gov buildings. Why? To give the military a reason to move in. If Suthep and co could cause a mild stink, the army could simply ignore government demands for help and move in claiming they 'stopped a civil war etc'

Truth hurts, but it needs pointing out to the easily led. If the army (or police for that matter) actually did its job and protected the electorate they would've steamed in, arrested Suthep and co (not for protesting but for closing down buildings/cutting power/stopping people from voting etc) and nipped the nonsense in the bud early.

Can you imagine the reaction in the UK or USA if the elected party was booted out after the army refused to help the government after it took sides choosing the opposition? Us Brits are pretty reserved on the whole, but we'd burn London to the ground if that happened. I'm sure the USA would do similar. It's sad innocents had to die in the riots, including children. That is terrible, of course. But so was the gunning down of 90 or so protesters from the 'terrorist' side. They were agrieved voters. Fed up of being ridden roughshod over. So no, they aren't terrorists in my eyes.

[gbswales]

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Well with nearly 94% of approval I'm surprised he hasn't walked on water yet!

Surprisingly no opposition .

He must be doing right thing.

A lot of announcements but not sure what the junta has actually done.

Oh getting the street vendors of the streets and tearing down poor peoples homes on in or near forest boundaries.

Yep I can see why they are so popular.

They have given gainful employment to a lot of old military men coming up to retirement, and ensured families and friends are catered for.

Can't argue with these polls. Well you can, but it may be wrongly construed.

Please pray tell me who was appointed on the PTP cabinet---by who ??? what credentials did they have ??? water management ?? education tablets Rice committee?? transport/highways scams??? who was catered for in Thaksins government---FAMILY for starters.

Old military men will have more gorm than Chalerm/Yingluck/Jutaporn/ etc. These people were complete nutters in comparison. A drunk----an out of touch shopper/ and a red army mobiliser-fanatic..................think before you post please.

I could agree a little with your post re/old retired, but you do not have any reason to doubt their abilities, we have proof of the Shin family/friends abilities at the helm.

"Being better than the outgoing regime" is not really a sufficient qualification for government

[ginjag]

The biggest % of TVF members have had smiles on our faces after the Shins were booted out, whatever happens now is in the hands of the gods, but it's been brilliant watching some of you cringe and squirm. And like rabid dogs try for the Jugular of the PM. You will lose 2 ways, 1 without Shins and 2 with the PM in power. I feel I have gained 2.

Hands of the Gods? 555555 it's in the hands of the Thais electorate and none of them are Gods, although the way youre praising the PM you may feel he's of mythical and biblical status ?

rabid dogs at throat of the PM as opposed to the little boy crying because his hero is getting pelters for some of things he said and done ?

It's funny as still seem to think your opinions like most here matter to the General or the majority of the Thai electorate, opinions that mean nothing to them, unless you've actually got any influence in Thai Politics and are part of their team? Then it matters not, it's opinions Ginjag, some you don't like, but you're always going to have those, where would we be in life if everything was perfect?

You , like myself and many others are spending most of the day on TVF and are getting wound up over something that's nothing to do with the majority of the posters but it's generating debate, if something bothers me so much, I step away for the conversation as it's not with getting ones emotions carried away, and you are better than that.

I might not agree with a lot of what your are saying or standing for, but that doesn't mean I feel the need to start going on about the ignore list it's petulant, you accuse people of posting propaganda but what are the contents of a number of your posts , yeah propaganda and the same old rhetoric and mantra .

Put me on your ignore list if you want, I'll not lose any sleep over it that's for sure but I'll not be childish and put you on mine just to appease you, or to give you some kind of moral victory, you have an ignore button too, it works both ways, incase you hadn't figured it out.

Now put the petted lip away and start posting some humourous stuff that will put a smile on everyone's face ?

After all that, My propaganda ??? because I hate the fugitive Shin style democracy and cry it down. (not alone as you know)

I am giving the PM benefit of the doubt and in my mind Thai have to do. The clan out there you may not belong BUT I would call most of them extremists. Bitterly attacking the PM no matter what, now if you think this is healthier than my stance up to you.

The pm will take care of himself right or wrong from the rabid dogs attitude from this clan on TVF. only themselves to blame if there is a knock at the door. Make your bed you lay on it---the red army has learnt that and PTP.

Just tell me this because you seem to defend the propagandaists---who is niggling endlessly on TVF. ??? who are the problem posters that are getting others banned, Who are the ones here that are constantly baiting others. ??? get my drift ?? Not the long term posters.

My posts of late were making a point to those who are causing problems rather than nicely putting their conversations normally.

My last point being, taking an average of topics on a political nature anything that can be attacked is done by the same bunch. If then a poster answers look at the type of replies he gets. ??? Do I have a hard line view ---YES I'm Nth England guy-there is your answer.....

The pm must now stick it out and try to get this country out the mire it fell into.

[Snig27]

Perhaps ginjag's deranged, hateful and profoundly stupid posts can be merged with the what-Thais-hate-about-foreigners thread. That would seem to be their natural home.

There were a lot more like him baying for a coup earlier in the year. The more sensible ones realised that most would change their minds soon enough. Anyone with a brain realises that coups are never the answer. No matter bad the government may be. It's up to the electorate to vote them out. Not to be ousted at gunpoint with weapons paid for by them to protect their democratic rights.

It's like paying a security guard to protect your home and family. He then takes the gun, holds you and your family at gunpoint and takes your house. He then orders you about and punishes you if you don't agree with his every word/command. Make sure you smile, too. He wants you to be realy p..ed off, but wants you to force a smile for him.

This ginjag chap needs a good lie down. And yes. PT were self serving rubbish on the whole (although they did more for poorer Thais than any other party in Thai history), but a coup is never the answer. The foamers answer to that are the rants about civil war and red terrorists. Forgetting the fact that is was the PDRC that started the kerfuffle with their rabble rousing speakers. Using 'you know what' as an excuse, when 99.9% of reds support 'you know what'. Mouthing off in speeches about them being uneducated simpletons and that their votes shouldn't count. Stopping elections. Closing down gov buildings. Why? To give the military a reason to move in. If Suthep and co could cause a mild stink, the army could simply ignore government demands for help and move in claiming they 'stopped a civil war etc'

Truth hurts, but it needs pointing out to the easily led. If the army (or police for that matter) actually did its job and protected the electorate they would've steamed in, arrested Suthep and co (not for protesting but for closing down buildings/cutting power/stopping people from voting etc) and nipped the nonsense in the bud early.

Can you imagine the reaction in the UK or USA if the elected party was booted out after the army refused to help the government after it took sides choosing the opposition? Us Brits are pretty reserved on the whole, but we'd burn London to the ground if that happened. I'm sure the USA would do similar. It's sad innocents had to die in the riots, including children. That is terrible, of course. But so was the gunning down of 90 or so protesters from the 'terrorist' side. They were agrieved voters. Fed up of being ridden roughshod over. So no, they aren't terrorists in my eyes.

Precisely. And the question then is why did the army take no action? Bruce hit the nail on the head upthread.

[ginjag]

Perhaps ginjag's deranged, hateful and profoundly stupid posts can be merged with the what-Thais-hate-about-foreigners thread. That would seem to be their natural home.

You people as very small minority are a laugh a minute, And you are one to talk about my posts. Ha ha.

Hateful posts ?? you mean because I dislike the fugitive and Family ?? what annoys you guys you hate someone like me agreeing (UP TO NOW) with the PM. in a nutshell.

If you hate the PM create a speakers corner (Hyde Park style) in BKK. you cannot only sneakily slag him off on TVF....Join a Thaksin losers club.

Better you stick to topic---rules you know. So I am agreeing to stick with the pm for now. sorry guys.

There you go again with generalising, you people ? As opposed to you people ? And you have the gall to mention manners ?

You seem to forget that having good manners also means respecting other peoples opinions and views even if they differ from yours.

You're a hoot really, you sound like a typical referee, always right, and never wrong and fail to accept there's times where you made bad calls and made bad judgements .

The moral high horse needs leaving in the stables

Today I have deployed Thaksins style to get the limelight, publicity. it worked and at fever pitch. you see how he used it for his ego trips.

Everyday niggling in at the helm with his sister doing his lousy work, a fugitive running Thailand from abroad.

Now a coup resulted and the followers of this guy are slagging off the PM none of us know what will happen and all the slagging will never help.

Going along with the PM sounds a most terrible thing to do.-------------it's called hope.

[max72]

' His achievements in Italy ' ?

' Able to get the world community to understand the situation in Thailand ' ?

This is the Gospel according to Thailand which has settled into a routine of issuing statements on behalf of others.

No other country represented at Milan made a comment except Japan which called for the return of democracy but was translated by Thai officialdom into satisfaction with the military government.

Self praise is no praise except currently here.

I was in Milan to get my visa and i only saw hundreds of demonstrators against Thai regime,some Thais some Italians.

There was also a group of Thais pro regime, but much smaller. Peaceful demostrations in both cases. Some posters, some chanting.

I don't understand what achievements they are talking about....Maybe the mere presence was an achievement.

Edited November 2, 2014 by max72

[Snig27]

' His achievements in Italy ' ?

' Able to get the world community to understand the situation in Thailand ' ?

This is the Gospel according to Thailand which has settled into a routine of issuing statements on behalf of others.

No other country represented at Milan made a comment except Japan which called for the return of democracy but was translated by Thai officialdom into satisfaction with the military government.

Self praise is no praise except currently here.

I was in Milan to get my visa and i only saw hundreds of demonstrators against Thai regime,some Thais some Italians.

There was also a group of Thais pro regime, but much smaller. Peaceful demostrations in both cases. Some posters, some chanting.

I don't understand what achievements they are talking about....Maybe the mere presence was an achievement.

Sadly few. If he'd done or was seen to be doing a fraction of what was promised I'd be willing to give him a chance (although clearly it's not up to me or us at all but there is increasingly tangible dismay in the Thai electorate). The crusading cop in Phuket has been removed, there is no activity on the anti-corruption front, the economic news and mishandling is all bad and getting worse and tourism is in the tank - I'm driving back from Hua Hin right now and it was a ghost town with gloomy faces everwhere.

[Fat Haggis]

Perhaps ginjag's deranged, hateful and profoundly stupid posts can be merged with the what-Thais-hate-about-foreigners thread. That would seem to be their natural home.

You people as very small minority are a laugh a minute, And you are one to talk about my posts. Ha ha.

Hateful posts ?? you mean because I dislike the fugitive and Family ?? what annoys you guys you hate someone like me agreeing (UP TO NOW) with the PM. in a nutshell.

If you hate the PM create a speakers corner (Hyde Park style) in BKK. you cannot only sneakily slag him off on TVF....Join a Thaksin losers club.

Better you stick to topic---rules you know. So I am agreeing to stick with the pm for now. sorry guys.

There you go again with generalising, you people ? As opposed to you people ? And you have the gall to mention manners ?

You seem to forget that having good manners also means respecting other peoples opinions and views even if they differ from yours.

You're a hoot really, you sound like a typical referee, always right, and never wrong and fail to accept there's times where you made bad calls and made bad judgements .

The moral high horse needs leaving in the stables

Today I have deployed Thaksins style to get the limelight, publicity. it worked and at fever pitch. you see how he used it for his ego trips.

Everyday niggling in at the helm with his sister doing his lousy work, a fugitive running Thailand from abroad.

Now a coup resulted and the followers of this guy are slagging off the PM none of us know what will happen and all the slagging will never help.

Going along with the PM sounds a most terrible thing to do.-------------it's called hope.

Fair points although not everyone who is slagging off the PM is a Thaksinite ? there are plenty of anti PM comments on Social media sites hell I even see a few pro Suthep people here on TVF having a pop at the PM, it's open season on him Ginjag as some of the stuff he tried to enforce have gone back to the way they were before, taxi s jetskis, the comments about sending the army to crack down o the Island Mafias ..... The comments from some of his cabinet are doing him no favours.

Propaganda works both ways the Junta have theirs off to a tee, they should have, as this is a habit of theirs (coups)

[tbthailand]

Between the first quarter of 2001, when former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai party won their first election, and the fourth quarter of 2005, just before significant protests against Thaksin began, the Thai economy expanded by 31.9 per cent in total, equal to an average growth rate of 1.5 per cent quarter on quarter and 6.0 per cent year on year. In the eight and a half years since, the economy has grown by just 21.1 per cent in total, at an average rate of 0.6 quarter on quarter and 2.3 per cent year on year.

Lucky he was in power during a global economic boom, and since he was in power the global economy busted. But the full story doesn't fit the propaganda, does it?

The full story shows that Thailand's economy followed the worldwide economic trends during the Thaksin years and that it bucked those trends and performed worse at the time of the 2006, 2008 and, now, the 2014 'interventions'.

Which should not surprise anyone.

PPP were in power for pretty much all of 2008., but, IIRC, Thailand performed relatively well during the GFC under Abhisit and Korn.

But thanks for confirming the Thaksin didn't do anything special and that Thailand's economy followed the rest of the world during his time in power.

re: thaksin's economy, well, yeah, that's normal - I mean the Thai economy under Thaksin grew faster than the world economy, but when things are good, that is normal for Thailand which is a manufacturing and export country for the world.

Thaksin's benefit for the Thai people was to spread a larger portion of the state budget around the country.

What is equally clear is that the 3 coups effed up the economy big time. This year hurt a lot.

[aripengu]

The surveyocracy takes another step into surrealism and asks only community leaders for their opinion.

If Dr. Prayuth has to stay until the problems are solved he will stay forever OMG!!!

[metisdead]

An off topic post in violation of fair use policy has been removed.

[strabel23]

Legitimate or not he is doing what was needed to be done for a long time now and I hope he does stay on for as long as it takes to get the job done. Anyone that thinks going back to the old ways is a better solution just doesn't know Thailand or Thai politics. If Prayuth hadn't stepped in Thai politics would just be referred to as same ol same ol again and the ones that win would be the politicians with their hands in the public purse as usual again.

Prayuth is doing a great job cleaning up corruption, encroachment, mafia activity, crime and the list goes on and on. Something past governments failed to do so because they were so busy looking after their own self interests which has been the problem with Thailand for a long long time. No one said it could or would be done in a day, and will take time, but it is off to a very good start finally at last.

Money allocated for infrastructure or anything else to improve the standard of living in Thailand is just passed from one hand to the next until there is never enough to complete the project without cutting costs which results in poor quality hwys. and everything else.

With the Government in power now there is finally hope that Thailand will finally become a decent place to live in for everyone.

chairman of the Thai Researchers in Community Happiness Association

This is surely some of the worst propaganda in human history.

Seriously, some of Prayuths top advisors are actually tasked with coming up with propaganda that will somehow inflate their non existent legitimacy - and this is what they come up with

[NeilSA1]

Well with nearly 94% of approval I'm surprised he hasn't walked on water yet!

Surprisingly no opposition .

He must be doing right thing.

A lot of announcements but not sure what the junta has actually done.

Oh getting the street vendors of the streets and tearing down poor peoples homes on in or near forest boundaries.

Yep I can see why they are so popular.

"Oh getting the street vendors off the streets and tearing down poor peoples homes", and rich polticians' illegal homes/holiday houses "on in or near forest boundaries". Removal of illegal buildings/businesses on the beach fronts, containing/banning jet ski operators, following up on illegal wood sales and theft, curtailing the yellow/red violence/ deaths, investigating rice stocks..,

[Bob12345]

Right, it almost seems like the junta is killing time, keeping a tight lid on the country with martial law, and seriously damaging the tourist industry in the process, and creating ongoing political uncertainty which deters much needed investment.

Why would the junta deliberately stall a transition to a more stable government, and do great damage to the Thai economy in the process? What big, traumatic event in Thailand will happen in the near future? Why would the military believe that it, and not an elected government, must be in charge when that happens? I wonder...

This is also the idea that I have gotten after following a former Reuters journalist for a while who spread this theory around a lot (and just published a book based on that theory). I must admit that while I think it all sounds very plausible and there is no way i can refute the points he makes, I still cannot totally answer the question you ask at the end: "why they have to be in charge when that happens?".

It sounds too far fetched to me that a big surprise would take place at that moment, especially not when the military is in charge. They either control the situation, and therefore have no reason for "a big change", or they lose control and thereby put themselves out of the game. It would be easier to have someone else in charge (especially a red government) so you can send "terrorists" through the country to give you an excuse for a coup at that moment. And then you have carte blanche to do what you want in the name of "saving the country". People would cheer for the coup in the first weeks as it will stop the violence, and in those weeks you can make the amendments you planned to make all along. Once the honeymoon weeks are over you might be booted out by the people, but the changes you made cannot be reversed anymore.

Interested if someone can enlighten me a bit more.

Edited November 2, 2014 by Bob12345

[Fat Haggis]

Today I have deployed Thaksins style to get the limelight, publicity. it worked and at fever pitch. you see how he used it for his ego trips.

Everyday niggling in at the helm with his sister doing his lousy work, a fugitive running Thailand from abroad.

Now a coup resulted and the followers of this guy are slagging off the PM none of us know what will happen and all the slagging will never help.

Going along with the PM sounds a most terrible thing to do.-------------it's called hope.

Fair points although not everyone who is slagging off the PM is a Thaksinite ? there are plenty of anti PM comments on Social media sites hell I even see a few pro Suthep people here on TVF having a pop at the PM, it's open season on him Ginjag as some of the stuff he tried to enforce have gone back to the way they were before, taxi s jetskis, the comments about sending the army to crack down o the Island Mafias ..... The comments from some of his cabinet are doing him no favours.

Propaganda works both ways the Junta have theirs off to a tee, they should have, as this is a habit of theirs (coups)

Fairs fair--but how many taxis are there in Thailand--jet ski's-- islands and mafia's in every nook and cranny, some of these can be cracked slowly and some still seem static but it's going to take a year at least to even make inroads, why some people think from the onset everything will be extinguished.

Time has got to be given even more than we can imagine.

For 3 years the cancer has grown more, so in 5 months (sorry PM your no good you have not stopped it all) I say give him 3 years, but the PTP supporters want 5 months.

I'll wait and stand alongside the slaggers if all fails. after all they have nothing to lose. They (not all) as you say have lost already.

Nah I think the PTP supporters want a government that is elected by the people as should most of the Thai electorate rather thN have the Junta in control for any great length of time, it's never worked before so a great deal of Thais are as sceptical about this coup too. Why shouldn't they be sceptical about this one, it's history repeating itself over and over.

I bet the same stuff was said about the last coup, as in " yes but this one is different "

Do you not think that the PM/General can more or less say anything he wants that would elevate his popularity qirhin the electorate ?

He needs to deliver on these promises and one of them was elections within 16 months was it not?

[marinediscoking]

Legitimate or not he is doing what was needed to be done for a long time now and I hope he does stay on for as long as it takes to get the job done. Anyone that thinks going back to the old ways is a better solution just doesn't know Thailand or Thai politics. If Prayuth hadn't stepped in Thai politics would just be referred to as same ol same ol again and the ones that win would be the politicians with their hands in the public purse as usual again.

Prayuth is doing a great job cleaning up corruption, encroachment, mafia activity, crime and the list goes on and on. Something past governments failed to do so because they were so busy looking after their own self interests which has been the problem with Thailand for a long long time. No one said it could or would be done in a day, and will take time, but it is off to a very good start finally at last.

Money allocated for infrastructure or anything else to improve the standard of living in Thailand is just passed from one hand to the next until there is never enough to complete the project without cutting costs which results in poor quality hwys. and everything else.

With the Government in power now there is finally hope that Thailand will finally become a decent place to live in for everyone.

chairman of the Thai Researchers in Community Happiness Association

This is surely some of the worst propaganda in human history.

Seriously, some of Prayuths top advisors are actually tasked with coming up with propaganda that will somehow inflate their non existent legitimacy - and this is what they come up with

Here on the ground in Pattaya nothing has changed. Same jetski scams local politicians/police corrupt as ever. No mafia in Koh Tao. My friend just returned from Phuket, said a taxi is still 200 baht to go 100 meters. So what "corruption clean up" has happened since the coup?

[Snig27]

Well with nearly 94% of approval I'm surprised he hasn't walked on water yet!

Surprisingly no opposition .

He must be doing right thing.

A lot of announcements but not sure what the junta has actually done.

Oh getting the street vendors of the streets and tearing down poor peoples homes on in or near forest boundaries.

Yep I can see why they are so popular.

curtailing the yellow/red violence/ deaths

The obvious point is that he could have curtailed this long before by working with the elected government of the day. That he didn't makes him complicit - part of the problem rather than the cure.

[ginjag]

Fair points although not everyone who is slagging off the PM is a Thaksinite ? there are plenty of anti PM comments on Social media sites hell I even see a few pro Suthep people here on TVF having a pop at the PM, it's open season on him Ginjag as some of the stuff he tried to enforce have gone back to the way they were before, taxi s jetskis, the comments about sending the army to crack down o the Island Mafias ..... The comments from some of his cabinet are doing him no favours.

Propaganda works both ways the Junta have theirs off to a tee, they should have, as this is a habit of theirs (coups)

Fairs fair--but how many taxis are there in Thailand--jet ski's-- islands and mafia's in every nook and cranny, some of these can be cracked slowly and some still seem static but it's going to take a year at least to even make inroads, why some people think from the onset everything will be extinguished.

Time has got to be given even more than we can imagine.

For 3 years the cancer has grown more, so in 5 months (sorry PM your no good you have not stopped it all) I say give him 3 years, but the PTP supporters want 5 months.

I'll wait and stand alongside the slaggers if all fails. after all they have nothing to lose. They (not all) as you say have lost already.

Nah I think the PTP supporters want a government that is elected by the people as should most of the Thai electorate rather thN have the Junta in control for any great length of time, it's never worked before so a great deal of Thais are as sceptical about this coup too. Why shouldn't they be sceptical about this one, it's history repeating itself over and over.

I bet the same stuff was said about the last coup, as in " yes but this one is different "

Do you not think that the PM/General can more or less say anything he wants that would elevate his popularity qirhin the electorate ?

He needs to deliver on these promises and one of them was elections within 16 months was it not?

Last sentence--hopefully.

1st sentence--the PTP supporters now what is left ---agree want Their government back.

The Thai electorate are a different kettle of fish.---but in Issan I do not come across the dissent as we seem to have on TVF.

The coups worked before because they had a goal---the following governments of military rule NO. again a difference.

The coups have near been all different some for power strong holds---I believe this was more of an intervention than a straight in guns blaring coup.

[Dogmatix]

So where is it all heading do you think, Dogmatix?

It's a dynamic situation that now looks very different from the way it looked in the first 3 months after the coup and could easily look different again in another 3 months. However, at this point it looks like this government might stay in place for 2 or 3 years, clean up and sail into the sunset with the leading figures retiring in army camps like the Suchinda group but without trying to get into politics themselves. Political reforms (but few meaningful reforms to the economy, law and order or public administration) are likely to be put in place with the main aim of keeping the Shins out of power after the next election. A weak government would then probably be elected. Then red shirt protests will start and the cycle will start over again. Thai implies a reversion to the status quo after the 2007 constitution. However, there is another potential twist which is a reversion to the status quo of the 80s when an unelcted PM was allowed and a series of weak coalition governments felt they had to appoint Prem as PM to avoid the threat of another military coup. Maybe a totally new model will emerge from the rubble but I see more signs of nostalgia for the past than new thinking. Just my views. What do other think?

That's an interesting couple of scenarios and I'm not sure this lot have quite worked out what to do yet - they seem to be nervously floundering and increasingly paranoid as nothing goes right. Thailand's fiscal problems seem to worsen by the day.

What can be said with some certainty though is that - and this will make our rabid anti-PT pair froth - is that the junta is talking with Thaksin, whether it be a path to a quiet step back from politics or something more pro-active but unseen (that massive PT support base has to be taken into account if there is any way forward), is still less than clear.

I would say the likelihood some behind the scenes dialogue has taken place with Thaksin and may be ongoing is rather high. I just compare his behaviour following this coup with his behaviour following the 2006 coup and during the red shirt protests in 2009 and 2010. He was very shrill then doing interviews with any international media that would have him. This time he has been very subdued and even seems to have pulled the rug out from under Jataporn and Jaruphong's attempts to set up a Thai government in exile. Admittedly he may feel he has more to lose this time as he appears to have taken a calculated gamble to leave his sister in the country like a hostage. Perhaps she insisted she wanted to stay but you can be sure he had some influence over her decision to return after her trip to meet him in Paris. So far little progress has been in the various cases against her. The case over the water management has been thrown out because the damage was only intended but the government had no chance to execute the plan. The A-G declined to prosecute the criminal case againt Yingluck over the rice pledging in the fist instance and, if he doesn't change his mind, the NACC may struggle to prosecute here by itself without the backing of the 2007 constitution which is no longer. Meanwhile the NLA is dragging its heals over impeaching Yingluck and others due to the fact that the interim charter writers failed to write in any specific provisions for impeachment which makes members fear they could be prosecuted later - similar problems arose following the 1991 and 2006 coups after all the brave words about uprooting corruption had died down. The abrogation of the 2007 constitution is also a major impediment to pursuing allegations of wrongdoing in the last government. Allowing prosecutions under the constitution that was in effect at the time would be an obvious solution but that might not be regarded as giving sufficient protection to coup makers from future prosecutions for treason. At the end of the day some sort of dialogue with PT kingpins would be consistent with reconciliation and finding a path to a peaceful transition but striking a balance that doesn't make it look like as if the coup had achieved nothing would be difficult to achieve.

The NCPO seemed to do a great job dealing with pressing economic issues in the period before the governrment was formed. There were a number of jogjams created by the governmental paralysis caused by the protests and the dissolution of parliament and they went about fixing them in a sensible way using absolute power to positive effect. Now the low hanging fruit has gone it will be an uphill struggle. Apart from pressing on with Thaksin's infrastructure plans, there is little they can easily do to stimulate the economy. Consumers are overleveraged and interest rates are already at the bottom and will have to rise. Thai exports are becoming increasingly uncompetitive exacerated by years of lack of R&D and government planning and external demand is sagging at the same time. Fiscal revenues have been falling well below target and a hike of VAT to 10% is only a matter when, not if, since the headline property and inheritance taxes will raise very little. The only stimulus possible is viable leveraging up further in spite of fiscal shortfalls to accelerate the infrastructure projects in the hope they spur more private investment. This is another reason why VAT has to go up to 10% but that will be at the expense of further slowing of private consumption - robbing Peter to pay Paul. It is a tough job but the focus, following the initial attention on the macro side, is inevitably not going to be on the economy because coups create their own priorities. In 1991 the junta appointed an economic reformer as PM by accident and the economic reforms that led to things like Thailand having a viable auto industry are down to him. But this time economic policy, following the initial flurry seems likely to be left to older folk without any visionary ideas for Thailand's economic development over the next 2-3 decades, like Anand had in 1991, and they are more likely to have a conservative approach. Rather than having slower growth but seeing a new vision for Thailand's future economic development being rolled out, as we saw in 1991-92, this time we are likely to just see slower growth. This will be against a faltering global outlook which will take the blame for Thailand's growth downgrades next year.

The point I am trying to make is that we are probably in for a rough ride next year. The reform and political maneuverings are likely to be against a backdrop of harsh economic conditions and disappointments that the government is not likely to have much leeway to deal with and it might find it harder to maintain its popularity as time goes on, unless it can pull some rabbits out of the hat. That could make for some unexpected developments and strange alliances forged by expediency. As I said earlier, we should consider this a highly fluid and unpredictable situation. Again just my ideas based on publicly available information. No one can really say how things will pan out.

Edited November 2, 2014 by Dogmatix

[cmsally]

I think the situation is a bit more complicated. Military has to be in total control but also it can then be used as a scapegoat to run the country into the ground so it can be rescued or "turned around". We could be playing a game of comparatives with the winning hand going to the oarsman who returns the boat to the right course again.

Take the kiddies candy away for a year or so and see how popular you will be if you are the one to hand it back.

[Dogmatix]

I think the situation is a bit more complicated. Military has to be in total control but also it can then be used as a scapegoat to run the country into the ground so it can be rescued or "turned around". We could be playing a game of comparatives with the winning hand going to the oarsman who returns the boat to the right course again.

Take the kiddies candy away for a year or so and see how popular you will be if you are the one to hand it back.

That is going to be tough. After the 1997 crisis the IMF bailed out the baht, avoiding total total collapse, but pushed Thailand into a deeper economic crisis by insisting on strict fiscal and monetary discipline. At least banks were more or less cleaned up and finance companies were shut down. The consumer was still virtually unleveraged then and interests rates were alllowed to fall following the end of the IMF programme and VAT which the IMF had insisted should be implemented at 10% could be dropped to u7%. So with a tidied up financial sector and and a devalued baht that immediately boosted exports and tourism plus no damage to Western economies apart from the dot com bubble it was relatively easy for Thaksin to appear to have engineered a recovery after his 2000 election win. Just about all those factors that were positive in 2000 are now maxed out now leaving public investment which is a relatively small part of the economy to do all the heavy lifting. The global economy might suddenly lurch forward as soon as 'saviour' got into power but this is a long shot and anyway Thailand's export competitiveness remains a problem, while competing tourism destinations like Vietnam (and soon Burma) will be making faster headway. I think it unlikely that anyone taking over will just luck into a economic sweet spot again - more likely to be handed a poison chalice.

[metisdead]

Some more nonsense posts have been removed.

[71Cuda]

Manufacturing your own facts is fun!

You should try it too!

» 18.3% think You're a Great Guy/Gal.

» 21.4% Think You're a Super Great Guy/Gal.

» 60.3% Think You're the Greatest.

» 0% of Respondents were able to find any fault at all with you.

Edited November 2, 2014 by 71Cuda

[cmsally]

I think the situation is a bit more complicated. Military has to be in total control but also it can then be used as a scapegoat to run the country into the ground so it can be rescued or "turned around". We could be playing a game of comparatives with the winning hand going to the oarsman who returns the boat to the right course again.

Take the kiddies candy away for a year or so and see how popular you will be if you are the one to hand it back.

That is going to be tough. After the 1997 crisis the IMF bailed out the baht, avoiding total total collapse, but pushed Thailand into a deeper economic crisis by insisting on strict fiscal and monetary discipline. At least banks were more or less cleaned up and finance companies were shut down. The consumer was still virtually unleveraged then and interests rates were alllowed to fall following the end of the IMF programme and VAT which the IMF had insisted should be implemented at 10% could be dropped to u7%. So with a tidied up financial sector and and a devalued baht that immediately boosted exports and tourism plus no damage to Western economies apart from the dot com bubble it was relatively easy for Thaksin to appear to have engineered a recovery after his 2000 election win. Just about all those factors that were positive in 2000 are now maxed out now leaving public investment which is a relatively small part of the economy to do all the heavy lifting. The global economy might suddenly lurch forward as soon as 'saviour' got into power but this is a long shot and anyway Thailand's export competitiveness remains a problem, while competing tourism destinations like Vietnam (and soon Burma) will be making faster headway. I think it unlikely that anyone taking over will just luck into a economic sweet spot again - more likely to be handed a poison chalice.

Yes if the scenario is correct whether by purpose or by chance; there are the aspects of international economy, debt levels and regional competition. Then into the "soup" go large doses of stupidity, nationalism and big egos. All this could indeed make for a nasty little brew.

[Robespiere]

Manufacturing your own facts is fun!

You should try it too!

» 18.3% think You're a Great Guy/Gal.

» 21.4% Think You're a Super Great Guy/Gal.

» 60.3% Think You're the Greatest.

» 0% of Respondents were able to find any fault at all with you.

This is not a real Thai survey.... your results only go to one decimal place and they actually add up to an even 100%.

Edited November 2, 2014 by Robespiere

[martinhp]

Just place him on kho Tao and tell him to bring his guns there and tell him it's it he will never know the difference

and I gess he never se girls in bikini there and as there are no turist he can remove all from the beaches as he wish .

[bangrak]

Dear TV contributors coming here to read, write, exchange genuine personal opinions, would it not be high time to act against a small minority of posters misusing this forum to propagate political des-information and propaganda?

It is not that we have to read all that trash, thank God not, and for sure don't need to react on it, but don't you think it is cluttering all of this forum to a very unpleasant point, that, to use an image, the volume of garbage they feel compelled to pour all over the peacefull garden of exchange this forum was for most of us, has made it so polluted it has become hard to still discern between the heaps of their smelly debris the presence of beautifull fragrant flowers of opinion we used to come here to discover?

Couldn't we boycott those abusers, isolate them? For instance, under their posts just write one standardised short slogan-esk sentence telling that one disagrees but refuses to honour this poster with a reaction, and the same under a mostly aggressive, when not insulting, reaction of theirs on a genuine post?

What do you think about the idea? Do you like it, or not, let it please be known.

Thank you!

[Trouble]

Posts critical of the news source have been removed. Feel free to comment on the content of the news article. The thread is about the source of the news.

http://asiancorrespondent.com/126917/why-are-some-opinion-poll-results-so-positive-of-the-thai-junta/

This is about the source of the news, the pollsters. It certainly questions the validity of any polls coming from the "Happiness" people.

[Incobart]

And get the problems solved, now.

I don't see anything major happen....By now there should be hundreds of former politicians jailed, and that are just the cases where it is obvious and everyone knows.

bbrr, I get sick of these negative reactions, finally FINALLY there is a right shaped soul, who wants to make Thailand a better and correct country, who cleaned out in a short period a lot of corruption and law mistreats ... and it still not good...

if everything is perfect they will complain its to perfect.

Yes we should let K Prayut clear it all out, its a huge work and still a long way to go, secondly create a government control system, that as soon governments change back we can not refall into corruption again, the control organisation can wipes out any politician/policemen that do something wrong.

Thailand should also need more than 2 parties, let say 3 or 4, so that A en B work together with opposition C, or B and C against A ..

if you only have to cocks black and white, yellow and red ... its always a heavy fight with a dead one ..

Edited November 2, 2014 by Incobart

[Johpa]

This is the transition government whose task is to keep things calm during the transition, whenever that begins. Thus this government is not going anywhere for a few more years. Events on Koh Tao are irrelevant as such malfeasance happens daily throughout the provinces. The minor corruption sweeps are just window dressing and are also irrelevant. In a few years, when the dust has settled, when the Thais know more precisely whose dust underfoot they have become, then they will be able to go back to electing the same corrupt Bangkok internal colonialists as before. And then the waders in the shallows of social media can go back to imagining that Thailand is once again a democracy.