Thai Baht AUS$ falling everyday. Anyone have an insight on what may happen?

[RandomSand]

SIMPLE:

You want to come to TH because it offers good value for money. The shrewd will already have caught my drift...

Your currency is over-valued Vs the THB. You perfectly demonstrate this "open secret" by your very demand for the THB.

Long term, so long as people flock to TH because it's cheap, THB will be on the rise.

Forget about fx rates. Imagine you have 20 gold coins. Spend 10 in Aus and 10 in TH.

Which country offers better value for your 10 gold coins ?

Obviously it depends on what you value, e.g education, health care, night life, etc...

But based on what you value... what you demand from the exchange of your coins.. ask yourself what country offers better value for money?

If the answer is Thailand... or if you'd still come to Thailand if the fx rate was expensive for you....

Buy THB NOW.

Edited November 7, 2014 by RandomSand

[Naam]

I have to be honest ...

Just read every post here.

Why is the major number of posts refer to the US/THB exchange rate?

The OP refers and enquires about the AUD/THB exchange rate.

Not related rates of exchange.

So, for clarification ... the OP is asking about the exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the Thai Baht.

.

So, for clarification David... any opinion or advice referring to the OP's question is useless without reference to USD/AUD because that is the major pivoting point for AUD/THB.

[Strangebrew]

My advice to you at this time unless you got money to burn stay put ride it out there you stand to lose big time coming here now. But if you wait you might be rewarded with cheaper stuff here cause this time there maybe at lot people going else where and need to dump assets. I warned of this happening last year by summer was a little off but well it is here as you can see. But the nay sayers just laughed .

[Naam]

Try looking at ozforex.com.au

Thaibath all time follow US Dollar

no fairy tales please!

[Naam]

The AUD is at levels that au treasury are not all that happy with. The exchange rate against the standard..ie greenback was a while back very high.

Normal rates for AUD may fall below 0.80 USD. Some predicting lower....

If you live here and have to exchange into baht on regular basis move your aid into something else. Gold would not be stupid, esp given world events.

no daydreaming please! actually AU Treasury is quite happy that the AUD/USD had reached a level which was desirable a year ago.

December 13, 2013

RESERVE Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens says he'd prefer a fall in the value of the Australian dollar over lower interest rates as a means to lift the local economy.

Mr Stevens said on Friday he would like a dollar closer to 85 US cents to help stimulate trade-exposed sectors of the economy.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/rbas-glenn-stevens-wants-australian-dollar-closer-to-85-us-cents/story-e6frfm30-1226782084533

Hello sunshine.... The AU Treasury does not control the exchange rate.....its a simple demand/supply and subject to fluctuations outside the control of treasury.......they have expressed "what they would like"

Perhaps you did eco 101 in days of fixed exchange rates

Spare me trite advice

nobody claimed that the Oz Treasury controls the exchange rat. i just proved that your claim

"The AUD is at levels that au treasury are not all that happy with."

is nothing but *^%$%# and that goes for any advice from you too

[poweratradio]

The USD is getting stronger due to the announcement that QE is ending. After a few months, the stock market will start to tank, like gold already has. Then we will be hit with QE4 and the USD will drop like a rock.

It will just take China releasing all the U S dollars back into the system to deflate the green back

[NanLaew]

Hello sunshine.... The AU Treasury does not control the exchange rate.....its a simple demand/supply and subject to fluctuations outside the control of treasury.......they have expressed "what they would like"

Perhaps you did eco 101 in days of fixed exchange rates

Spare me trite advice

nobody claimed that the Oz Treasury controls the exchange rat. i just proved that your claim

"The AUD is at levels that au treasury are not all that happy with."

is nothing but *^%$%# and that goes for any advice from you too

Yo! jacksam! Y'all gonna need a much bigger handbag.

[winnerinsix]

Russian rubel hit the bottom...

that would be the sanctions biting and the russians giving up attempting to prop it up

[winnerinsix]

The low price for Iron Ore is hurting the AUD, along with the new restrictions China has placed on coal fired emissions.... Australia is a quarry, and sadly is at the mercy of world commodity markets... Look for above than expected Chinese growth figures and the AUD will strengthen.... The other yolk around the neck of the AUD, is the highest unemployment figures in 12 years.. Business, has openly lost confidence in the government which is another small but important factor.

The USD is rallying, rightly or wrongly, we have to wait and see... The USD jumped on the election of the republicans a couple of days ago, but I feel that may be short lived optimism.

I think the silver lining is the Baht, IMO, it is heading for a decline... The stimulus package either hasn't been effective or has only in part been implemented... that is unclear, because the current Thai Govt, is a very confusing animal itself... The projected growth rate for Thailand is 1.5%, well below like countries in the region....

Gold is low atm, at 1133 USD, but I would wait.. I have seen forecasts of 800 USD by the end of 2015.. whether that happens or not is another thing.

YO! The dollar rallied because of the Republicans the other day??? LOL. And it'll be short-lived??? Double LOL!

The dollar has been in a sustained rally since last May, when it bottomed out (last 12 months prices, anyway) at about .79 euros, I believe. Now it's .88. Yeah, it rallied a little bit the other day, more than usual like you said, but it's been rallying for quite a while, against all other currencies, and if not against all, against most, for sure.

And the Repukes are known for hubris. They will self-destruct, maybe very quickly, since those boys and girls would sell their own mommies for the right price. They'll turn on and eat other alive, just watch. They haven't had any positive ideas or programs for decades. Hill will be sitting pretty in 2 years time... In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Bill, Hill, and Barry didn't plan it this way.

As fas as the baht is concerned, it's been doing what every currency has been doing vs the dollar.

The AUD took a real big hit after the election.... coincidence? Up to you.... The AUD had been in a slide, no doubt....but it dropped the night of the election....

The optimism comment, is that there is a market expectation that with both US houses under control of the right, that things like Keystone will get the go ahead... look at the price of oil.... again remains to be seen... but that is probably one fight Obama won't take up...

I think you have taken me wrong here, I am well and truly of the left.... I too think of the right much the same as you do.....

[Old Croc]

SIMPLE:

You want to come to TH because it offers good value for money. The shrewd will already have caught my drift...

Your currency is over-valued Vs the THB. You perfectly demonstrate this "open secret" by your very demand for the THB.

Long term, so long as people flock to TH because it's cheap, THB will be on the rise.

Forget about fx rates. Imagine you have 20 gold coins. Spend 10 in Aus and 10 in TH.

Which country offers better value for your 10 gold coins ?

Obviously it depends on what you value, e.g education, health care, night life, etc...

But based on what you value... what you demand from the exchange of your coins.. ask yourself what country offers better value for money?

If the answer is Thailand... or if you'd still come to Thailand if the fx rate was expensive for you....

Buy THB NOW.

You're right of course that it is much cheaper to live in Thailand than the highly developed western countries most of us come from. That's a big part of the reasons many of us are here.

We gave up some of the advantages of first world living because our middleclass money allows us live richer in Thailand by their standards.

But that has little to do with exchange rates. When we get less baht for our buck than we hoped for, it does lessen our expectations and high purchasing power here. Most of us like the fact that we've morphed from middle class to hiso elite.

Call it greed if you like, but when we get less because our currency is falling it hurts. There are sacrifices made in living here that normally are compensated for by the purchasing power of our dollars. I, for one, don't want to lose that to an AUD down to 24 or 25 baht!

[louse1953]

Try looking at ozforex.com.au

Don't use Aussie banks.If your game,bring it over in cash.Go to Super Rich in Bangkok,then go to the Bangkok Bank on the corner,40 metres from SR,and open an account.There are other ways,if you have Thai friends in Oz,ask them,but you must have a Thai bank acc.so that counts you out.

[David48]

I have to be honest ...

Just read every post here.

Why is the major number of posts refer to the US/THB exchange rate?

The OP refers and enquires about the AUD/THB exchange rate.

Not related rates of exchange.

So, for clarification ... the OP is asking about the exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the Thai Baht.

.

So, for clarification David... any opinion or advice referring to the OP's question is useless without reference to USD/AUD because that is the major pivoting point for AUD/THB.

Naam, you know I have great respect for you, but I have to be honest, I don't understand your post?

The OP is asking about the AUD/THB exchange rate ... nothing to do with the USD/THB exchange rate.

If you are saying that the USD/THB exchange rate bares any impact on the AUD/THB exchange rate then I am genuinely confused ...

Not saying that graphs can't be produced showing a similarity ... but, to my knowledge, there is no fiscal tie ... no Ménage à trois between the 3 currencies.

Happy to be shown how there is.

.

[lannarebirth]

Almost every trade on earth, whether it be currency, commodity, bonds, emerging market or whatever is to a large extent a trade on what the $USD will do. There are no $AUD:THB instruments as far as I am aware. There exist $USD:THB and $USD:$AUD financial products. $AUD:THB will to a great extent be an extrapolation of the movement in those financial instruments.

[Naam]

I have to be honest ...

Just read every post here.

Why is the major number of posts refer to the US/THB exchange rate?

The OP refers and enquires about the AUD/THB exchange rate.

Not related rates of exchange.

So, for clarification ... the OP is asking about the exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the Thai Baht.

.

So, for clarification David... any opinion or advice referring to the OP's question is useless without reference to USD/AUD because that is the major pivoting point for AUD/THB.

Naam, you know I have great respect for you, but I have to be honest, I don't understand your post?

The OP is asking about the AUD/THB exchange rate ... nothing to do with the USD/THB exchange rate.

If you are saying that the USD/THB exchange rate bares any impact on the AUD/THB exchange rate then I am genuinely confused ...

Not saying that graphs can't be produced showing a similarity ... but, to my knowledge, there is no fiscal tie ... no Ménage à trois between the 3 currencies.

Happy to be shown how there is.

.

the BoT is trying hard to manage THB rate vs. a basket of currencies. sometimes with success sometimes without. from all indications (i don't have the time to write a thesis or dissertation on this subject) the US-Dollar is the heavy weight in this basket. as simple as that David.

read also the comment of Lannarebirth in this context!

[Si Thea01]

Please elaborate a little more on your plans. Are you coming as a tourist; are you planning to work or study here or retire. What type of visa do you have. How long do you intend to stay. There are many factors that you must take into consideration before you even contemplate transferring funds and never transfer all that you have. Remember, do not place all your eggs in the one basket.

Firstly, you must be able to open a bank account here. Remember, you are required to declare anything over A$10,000 before you depart and anything over US$20,000 when you arrive. There are many ways to transfer funds but I find internet banking the best. Cost is A$20.00 for any amount up to $10,000.00. If no bank account how do you envisage transferring funds?

Transferred funds yesterday and received B27.87; 9 months ago 30.85; 8 years ago when I set up, B21.33. In the past 9 months the A$ has gone from about $0.94 to now $0.86 yet the baht has only dropped just under 3 baht per dollar. So if you were to transfer now you would receive about B15000 (A$539.00) less than 9 months ago but still receive approximately B1,750,000.00, less of course, your transfer fees both here and in Australia. I also always send my money here in Australia dollars and then change to baht via my Thai bank, as the exchange rate is reasonable. Do not convert it to baht in Australia as the Banks really stick it up you and you can loose up to another B2.00 per dollar.

To buy a vehicle here you need to provide an address and proof of that, also a letter from immigration providing your details, which allows the dealer to sell to you. If you do not have that letter or proof of where you stay, no sale. To the best of knowledge I was charged B500.00, about A$18.00 at the current rate for the letter. You will also need at least, an international license in order to drive here. If you buy a new vehicle it takes about 3 months for the registration to come through but you can hire a red plate at a cost of B3,000.00, which is refundable when returned to the dealer.

Hope this has been of some help.

[Naam]

The AUD took a real big hit after the election.... coincidence? Up to you.... The AUD had been in a slide, no doubt....but it dropped the night of the election....

The optimism comment, is that there is a market expectation that with both US houses under control of the right, that things like Keystone will get the go ahead... look at the price of oil.... again remains to be seen... but that is probably one fight Obama won't take up...

I think you have taken me wrong here, I am well and truly of the left.... I too think of the right much the same as you do.....

i hate to be a spoilsport but here are the facts (AUD up after elections):

-USDAUD sep 1st, 2013.......................................0.89360

-USDAUD election day sep 13th, 2013.................0.92468

-USDAUD sep 17th, 2013.....................................0.93520

-USDAUD oct 14th, 2013......................................0.95120

[kennw]

Even though the question relates to A$ to Baht exchange rate, the value of the Baht is based on a basket of currencies the most important of which is the US$, therefore if the US$ moves so will the Baht. The A$ is freely traded so it can move independently of the US$. Thus if the A$ falls against the US$ it also falls against the Baht and visa versa

[Naam]

The AUD had been in a slide, no doubt...

that's a matter of perspective, the selection of a certain period and comparison vs. a certain currency.

example AUDUSD:

if you take as a starting point end of march 2001 and compare the rate with today's prevailing one you see a strengthening from 47.90 to 86.35 = ~+80%!

[hugh2121]

The USD is getting stronger due to the announcement that QE is ending. After a few months, the stock market will start to tank, like gold already has. Then we will be hit with QE4 and the USD will drop like a rock.

Bow locks. US$ has taken on the role which used to be performed by gold. Many countries no longer hold the metal but hold dollars instead. The price of gold is only down against the dollar, as most major currencies are. This is due to a rise in the dollar not a fall in gold or other currencies, although some may have fallen anyway. I don't know what you mean by "start to tank" but chances are that stock markets will rise (although there will be some volatility) after the recent correction. Stock markets are markets, when demand is high, prices go up. Demand is high due to poor interest rates elsewhere.

[dean008]

For what its worth, I would say if you are happy with the current rate then go for it, or make 3 separate transfers. I bought some condos and watched and waited and waited until I had to change my £'s in order to pay for the condos on deadline day. It cost me an extra £10,000

In hindsight I should have either made a few transfers over a period of time (to balance out the risk) instead of waiting and hoping. It could have gone the other way and saved me £10,000 but you win some and lose some

[Evilbaz]

I agree that the trend for AUD/BHT is down.

I would do it now if you are moving here - then you can stop worrying about FX rates because you are spending Baht.

I transferred a big wedge in early September and got 29.7.

It has dropped nearly 2 baht since then.

Unfortunately the AUD is classed as a "commodity currency" and the smallest fart out of China causes the AUD to drop v USD and consequently v Baht.

I have been waiting in vain for over 5 years for the over-valued Baht to be re-valued, but I fear there is too much "Face" to be lost for this to happen.

I moved here in 2008 when the AUD was in the high 32s Baht.

Before too long it was 22! That bloody hurt.

The rate remains steady on the weekends (BOT closed), often drops on Mondays and is often highest around Wednesday/Thursday.

Xe.com is a good site for graphs, but you wont get their "mid market rate".

[winnerinsix]

The AUD took a real big hit after the election.... coincidence? Up to you.... The AUD had been in a slide, no doubt....but it dropped the night of the election....

The optimism comment, is that there is a market expectation that with both US houses under control of the right, that things like Keystone will get the go ahead... look at the price of oil.... again remains to be seen... but that is probably one fight Obama won't take up...

I think you have taken me wrong here, I am well and truly of the left.... I too think of the right much the same as you do.....

i hate to be a spoilsport but here are the facts (AUD up after elections):

-USDAUD sep 1st, 2013.......................................0.89360

-USDAUD election day sep 13th, 2013.................0.92468

-USDAUD sep 17th, 2013.....................................0.93520

-USDAUD oct 14th, 2013......................................0.95120

AUD OZ elect.jpg

Wrong election ................................... the mid terms just gone I am talking about, nothing to do with OZ elections....

" The Australian dollar has recovered slightly after hitting a four year low as the greenback surged on the Republican win in the US midterm elections.

At 1700 AEDT on Thursday, the local currency was trading at 86.19 US cents, down from 87.24 US cents on Wednesday."

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/hits-four-low-greenback-surges-064811334.html

Edited November 8, 2014 by winnerinsix

[BlackJack]

if you google this

A Scary Story for Emerging Markets

By Worth Wray

you will read that if the US$ gains more then US$ offshore money will be sucked out of the emerging markets and back into the US$ as a safe haven.

This is happening and there will be a tipping point soon and emerging markets will crash.

Australia is one of the few countries in the World with banks having AAA ratings

I would not put bets on the Australia dollar staying down if the crash happens

it is a safe currency unlike the US$ that is practically worthless due to QE

but its easy to deal in international markets and so will remain one of the safe currencies. However once the association with the US$ and oil diminishes then there will certainly be some action in the World markets.

The Asean thing will become a dream as the funding will not be there as its borrowed money. The money will go back into safe countries.

So read the link above and make up your own mind.

I remain in cash and metals so that I can scoop up bargains

[retarius]

Actually, no one knows what is going to happen to the Aussie dollar in the future....no one at all. The reason for this is because the event is in the future and human beings can only see into the past...and they don't do that very reliably.

So historically rates have tended to go up and down over time....but the cycles can be very long indeed, so if you wait for the Aussie dollar to rise you may be in your grave before it happens. You may do better to buy other currencies such as JPY, Sing Dollar, SWF, Euro, or Sterling as these may strengthen as their economy improves and interest rates go up....and because now people think the Aussie economy is going to tank....but the Aussie economy will improve if other economies like China improve...so you pays your money and takes your choice....but don;t listen to anyone who tells you they know what direction the Aussie dollar will take from tomorrow onwards as they are either deluded or liars.

[Robert24]

I expect the US$ to continue to get stronger relative to most currencies, incl THB because of the expectation of an interest rate increase by the FED in 2015. I also expect Commodities to continue to be weak which also puts pressure on the AUD.

[Naam]

if you google this

A Scary Story for Emerging Markets

By Worth Wray

you will read that if the US$ gains more then US$ offshore money will be sucked out of the emerging markets and back into the US$ as a safe haven.

This is happening and there will be a tipping point soon and emerging markets will crash.

Australia is one of the few countries in the World with banks having AAA ratings

I would not put bets on the Australia dollar staying down if the crash happens

it is a safe currency unlike the US$ that is practically worthless due to QE

but its easy to deal in international markets and so will remain one of the safe currencies. However once the association with the US$ and oil diminishes then there will certainly be some action in the World markets.

The Asean thing will become a dream as the funding will not be there as its borrowed money. The money will go back into safe countries.

So read the link above and make up your own mind.

I remain in cash and metals so that I can scoop up bargains

Australia is one of the few countries in the World with banks having AAA ratings

for the record: no Australian bank exists that has an AAA rating. the only bank that operates in Australia and is rated AAA is the Dutch Rabobank.

[Naam]

The USD is getting stronger due to the announcement that QE is ending. After a few months, the stock market will start to tank, like gold already has. Then we will be hit with QE4 and the USD will drop like a rock.

Bow locks. US$ has taken on the role which used to be performed by gold. Many countries no longer hold the metal but hold dollars instead. The price of gold is only down against the dollar, as most major currencies are. This is due to a rise in the dollar not a fall in gold or other currencies, although some may have fallen anyway. I don't know what you mean by "start to tank" but chances are that stock markets will rise (although there will be some volatility) after the recent correction. Stock markets are markets, when demand is high, prices go up. Demand is high due to poor interest rates elsewhere.

more huge big bow locks!

[Naam]

The AUD took a real big hit after the election.... coincidence? Up to you.... The AUD had been in a slide, no doubt....but it dropped the night of the election....

The optimism comment, is that there is a market expectation that with both US houses under control of the right, that things like Keystone will get the go ahead... look at the price of oil.... again remains to be seen... but that is probably one fight Obama won't take up...

I think you have taken me wrong here, I am well and truly of the left.... I too think of the right much the same as you do.....

i hate to be a spoilsport but here are the facts (AUD up after elections):

-USDAUD sep 1st, 2013.......................................0.89360

-USDAUD election day sep 13th, 2013.................0.92468

-USDAUD sep 17th, 2013.....................................0.93520

-USDAUD oct 14th, 2013......................................0.95120

AUD OZ elect.jpg

Wrong election ................................... the mid terms just gone I am talking about, nothing to do with OZ elections....

" The Australian dollar has recovered slightly after hitting a four year low as the greenback surged on the Republican win in the US midterm elections.

At 1700 AEDT on Thursday, the local currency was trading at 86.19 US cents, down from 87.24 US cents on Wednesday."

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/hits-four-low-greenback-surges-064811334.html

The AUD took a real big hit after the election.... coincidence? Up to you.... The AUD had been in a slide, no doubt....but it dropped the night of the election....

then let's use the "right" election to look at AUDUSD and realise that the big slide started in september

[louse1953]

Thanks for all the advice fellers. I think I'll just go over and sit tight. Problem is we live about 60km out from the city and renting a car is prohibitive and too far for a motor bike.

I have to say this is the only forum I have ever been on where there is 100% positive and constructive advice. Great to not have someone jump in correcting spelling errors or driving your question off topic completely with a side debate before even getting an answer. Great stuff!

Hang around a bit longer mate,it's a snakepit sometimes.

[Si Thea01]

I'd just go ahead and transfer now. If you're waiting for the Aussie to hit 30 baht again, you might not have that new pickup for a long time.

You're still going to get that new car far cheaper than what you'd pay in Australia anyway.

Nobody knows what the dollar will do. I clearly recall the last time that the Aussie dollar dropped below 90 cents, 'experts' were coming out of the woodwork in the media proclaiming that the Aussie would promptly fall to 70 cents or even as low as 55 cents to the $US. What happened next? It climbed back up to 94 cents and stayed thereabouts for over 6 months.

On balance, it would appear that sentiment is more bullish on the $US recently and who knows how long this will last?

With the Russian ruble down 30% to the Thai baht compared to last high season, I think the tourism sector is in for a rude shock this Christmas season. Can you imagine the $AUD fetching 20 baht? That's the equivalent fall for the Russians. I think this may negatively affect the baht.

I agree with you on certain aspects but differ of the price of a new car. Last year, when I was getting around 30 baht t the dollar I bought a new Honda CRV at a cost of A$56,000. Many standard options included in the Australian model were missing and could not be added or even sourced here.

This price was, after negotiations, reduced by $1,000. or B30,000.00. The same vehicle, fully optioned and with the accessories I fitted could be bought back home for $45,000.00 or B1,282,500.00 as compared to B1,596,000.00.

This year I bought my wife a new Toyota Espirit, at a cost of about A$31,600.00 or B900,000.00. This one was cheaper than that in Australia but I am assuming this was because it too was missing options that were standard on the Australian model, and again not able to be sourced here.

In so far as the Australian dollar this has dropped from a high of $1.10 to the US dollar in 2011 to a current low of $0.86. As I am not good at maths this may be about the same drop as the ruble. Feel free to correct me if my maths do not add up. I can however remember 8 years ago when the dollar was just over B21 to the dollar so I do not need an imagination, I actually know.