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AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore missing


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Posted

The danger for the aircraft is not "Lightening" it is "Hail". If enough hail gets sucked into the engines it stalls. In engine testing you can shoot water directly from a fire hose into a jet engine and it will keep running but inject ice...bad things happen. Also a A320 also has a "ditch switch" for water landings . The pilot if he able too can ditch in water and the plane floats. But now I'm hearing they found wreckage but that's unconfirmed.

Would you indulge me by taking the time to explain this in a way that untechnical types can understand please; it sounds very interesting.

Because planes fly over water Boeing decided to add this feature to planes they produce. It's called the "Ditch Switch". In layman's terms it prevents all the doors from being opened or any "sealed door" on the plane thereby allowing the plane to float. It can be deactivated if need be. It's not perfect but if the pilot is able to ditch without causing major damage the plane it stays afloat for a considerable amount of time. Once people are calm, the doors can be opened and rescue slides become "Rafts" and will hold a lot people in each one. The plane that Capt Scully flew into the New York river had it but it was not activated and if it was he didn't remember it. Still the plane stayed afloat and was actually towed to a pier.

I've read the same news, wreckage seen on or near a small (uninhabited?) Indonesian island and rescue teams sent to investigate.

Posted

Probably a silly thing to say but what about the flight recorder / black box? Are they going to leave this aspect ignored like in the Malaysian airline disappearance or are they going to try and locate it?

When something like this happens every avenue must be explored you cant afford to try one and when it doesnt work think of what is next.

Come on guys get people on everything

Posted

Some one knows what's going on around here, plane's dont just disapear with the radar and satelite equipment in operation today. Many modern cars have webcams on dashes, although not transmited to a base in real time, it couod be done on aircraft for avery small cost, why is it not?

Besides how many innocent people are dying in afganistan, iraq, ukrane, mexican massacure of 100's of school children, etc I rarely see much sentiment expressed about these atrocites or the concern about how many more to come.

Many posters here seem to express concern only for the possibility that it really could be them.

Affluent jetsetters appear to be given more value than hundreds of thousand people dying in poor countries, why is that?

Posted

I see conflicting information given by two Indonesian officials about the last communication from the aircraft to air traffic control.

  • Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at the Transport Ministry, told a news conference on Sunday that the plane had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds.

  • "At 6.12 am, the pilot asked Jakarta tower to be allowed to move up to 38,000 feet from 32,000 feet and to fly around a bad cloud. The tower lost contact at 6.17am," Murjatmodjo told a media briefing at Indonesia's main international airport, the Soekarno-Hatta, outside Jakarta.
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-indonesia-flight-qz8501-pilot-asked-fly-higher-altitude-avoi#sthash.WTJeLBcM.JF1Ydm62.dpuf

The first information quoted above suggests that the pilot only asked to change altitude. The second suggests that he asked to change altitude and to change direction. Perhaps Murjatmodjo also meant to say that the pilot asked to change altitude to avoid the clouds, ie fly above them. I guess one can fly around a cloud also on a vertically -- not doing a full circle, of course -- not just horizontally.

I believe the safest reply is: "that depends". If "loops" around a cloud are disallowed, how about "flat spins"?

There is the horrific story of Pulkovo 612 08/22/06 - Wiki, which AFAIC is a prophetic parallel to the AF447 loss.

"Early reports suggest that Flight 612 may have been caught in a thunderstorm; immediately prior to the crash, the pilots notified air traffic control that they were experiencing severe turbulence. According to the residents of a nearby town, the weather at the time of the crash was violent enough to cause power outages and cell phone disruptions on the ground. Authorities on the scene have speculated that the aircraft was struck by lightning which may have initiated an onboard fire. However, another theory has since been proposed. Based on various information, including the partially decrypted from a recovered flight recorder crash investigators believe that the aircraft climbed to an altitude higher than the maximum for which it was designed, causing the aircraft to enter into a flat spin from which it never recovered." (edited - emphasis mine)

Pulkovo 612 Flight Simulation - YouTube (Becomes dramatic around 3 minutes in)

That video will keep me in nightmares for a long time to come.

For the first time in my life, I am starting to get seriously spooked about air travel. Does anyone else feel the same way or is my imagination in overdrive because of the recent tragedies?

Posted (edited)

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The anvil shape at the top of a thunderstorm is an indication the storm is dying. The strong up and downdrafts that cause the mushroom shape are relenting. It's still incredibly dangerous to get near it.

Actually not true. For the record the anvil shape is the formation of ice crystals spreading out in the thinner colder air at the greater altitude, as I remember my physics I believe it is when it breaks through the tropopause. Normally as you climb higher the air gets progressively colder as the pressure drops though when you break through that tropopause layer the air will initially get warmer (though still very very cold up there of course) and this temperature inversion as it is called is what forms this tropopause layer. Once the powerful rising storm cell air column breaks through this layer with such force behind it and from below, then it will with such momentum of course rise rapidly and super freezes to form the ice crystals spreading out and thus forming the anvil shape we see. It takes a lot of upward force for the rising air to break through a strong tropopause layer and thus it cannot be an indication of the storm dying at all but clearly an indication of how strong and well established the storm most probably still is.

The mushroom appearance of CB clouds is in the lower area before the tropopause as once that billowing mushroom looking cloud breaks through only then does the familiar anvil shape referred to above appear. Whereas a dying storm cell is indicated by the ragged appearance of the clouds no longer being fed by the updraught of warmer moist air from below. Anyhow that is as I remember it from my much loved physics lessons years ago and also my later interest led study of meteorology, still in my younger days.

Anyway now lets get fully back on this sad news topic, and what of course really matters. As a very caring Atheist (not that it matters right now but yes caring is not the exclusive domain of religious folk you know and in my experience it is often a more prevalent trait with Atheists actually!!), I want to add that I am feeling very tearful and deeply saddened by this terrible incident. My thoughts and feelings go out to all the families and friends of these innocent folk who currently appear to have lost their lives so suddenly today in this tragedy. RIP to the poor victims, but let us still hang on to a slim hope that they all survived somehow, or at the very least that some of them may have. A very deeply sad day indeed.

We must of course all wait to hear the true cause, but I endorse what others here have said here in that the huge thunderstorm in the area seems pretty sure to be the primary or only cause of this terrible disaster.

That's interesting. Of all of the ground school I had I was always taught different. Not that it matters because I'd steer far clear of it. But I just looked it up and you're right.

Thanks for that confirmation as being so long ago as I implied I was not 100% sure but shows a big good character for you to admit what was anyway an easy error. I also liked your factual post about instrumentation with the lack of the normal avionics being available. I understand that to be true from my limited hobby led knowledge of aviation and time spent a few years ago with a fairly accurate PC based flight sim, and indeed gliding pilot theory and practical gliding instruction many more years ago.

Anyway of course none of that is important, nor does it help find the actual answer to what did happen here today, or indeed take away the terrible sadness and shock we are all feeling right now.

Actually you are both right!

Neversure, you are correct in that in almost all ground schools it is taught the anvil indicates a dying storm. Technically this is correct as this occurs in the latter stages of the 'mature stage', and the anvil is the very last part of the cloud to dissipate as the storm cloud will disappear from bottom to top. As soon as a good anvil has formed it is technically all down hill from there and the storm is passing its peak. Hence the assertion that it is 'dying'. However as you also point out, treat with extreme caution!

The technical description by rayw as to how/why the anvil forms is spot on.

This apparent weather accident is a complete tragedy and i hope the investigation will point a finger at the massive commercial pressure to operate flights on time every time, Vs the safety decisions that need to be made on occasion when the Captain feels that a better course of action would be a delay. Sometimes, no matter how much of a rush you are in it is better to sit on the ground for an hour until safer/more favorable flight conditions exist.

Edited by GentlemanJim
  • Like 1
Posted

I wonder how many planes the airline industry has to " lose" before they finally install

real time tracking that is broadcast back to their home base.... In this day and age

of electronic marvels, losing a plane and then go to try and find it is insane.....

I am not talking about the complex engine ACARS system, but rather just a simple ongoing

location system.

Note to self : Do not fly on a Malaysian Airline. They seem to be having a run of bad luck....

I agree it is quite ridiculous, google can track you to a toilet in any part of the world to within 5 feet of a urinal yet we are seeing aircraft with all this technology getting completely lost

I've had GPS turned on while flying and it tells absolutely everything about my position speed altitude heading all in real time - go figure

I've often thought about this since the Malaysian plane went missing - we were in Penang airport waiting to fly back to Bangkok when it was first reported on the news.

My phone, which is worth all of a hundred dollars or so can be traced to the thief's bedroom, yet an aircraft worth just a little bit more doesn't have the same technology my cheap phone has. I know it's a bit different, but surely not that different. It's a chip! Something which came as a shock to me and many others around the world was the broadly held assumption that the pilot was in direct contact with his own control room if nothing else. What if there's a funny noise and he just forgets to mention it for a while as often happens with cars (me anyway, I've driven around with strange bumps and knocks for a few weeks before remembering to say something about it. Yes, there should be and most likely is a system in place which requires both the pilot and his off-sider to write it down in a log book or similar, but that is open to human error - if they got distracted, there is a possibility that they would forget to write it up. The other big shock was that the tape on the voice recorder is only ever 120 minutes long as it overwrites itself after 2 hours. Multi-tetra-byte storage has been widely available for long enough for it not to be expensive - you can get a fair few hours of recorded video on a single tetra-byte and voice only should require much less storage. I know it has to be shock proof and water proof, but 2 hours? Really?

Sadly, none of these things come to our attention until the aftermath of a disaster, but then you'd think that governments and insurance companies would insist on anything like this being rectified almost immediately it becomes apparent.

Also, very sad to see the conspiracy theorists are having a field day (on the internet in general, not ThaiVisa).

Aircraft can receive GPS signals but there is nothing convenient to transmit their location data back to. A mobile phone in your hand in the middle of a city can also receive GPS data and the phone then uses its mobile or WIFI networks, that are everywhere, to interface with mobile maps etc or otherwise use its coordinates.

But those ever present and always on networks don't exist once airborne, miles above the ground and out at sea. The same seamless connectivity would cost vast amounts to develop, although I am sure they are trying to do something with satellites like Iridium, but costs are highly prohibitive. And in any case, if the data isn't entirely accurate and truly real time, it won't be much more useful than the "ping" that already exists. Planes are traveling at hundreds of miles and hour, so a small degree of uncertainty in timing of position data implies a vast area of uncertainty on the surface of the sea or ground.

It's not about conspiracy theories, it's about technology and economics, although I'm sure the bars are not short of idiots knowingly lecturing everyone about all kinds of nonsense....CIA, evil bankers, evil big business, the illuminati, the da Vinci code...blah blah blah....or how they are so much cleverer than the stupid airline executives and they could easily do it etc etc...yawn yawn yawn....explaining GPS etc etc....showing location on their phone....etc etc .....and no, it's not just a f******g chip....

Posted

Prayers to those onboard.

Looking at the weather map of Indonesia on TV just now. It looked like torrential rains over the entire region. I do not know how current the radar weather was but weather could have played a part in whatever has happened to the plane. My prayers for all onboard and for theirt families.

Posted

I see conflicting information given by two Indonesian officials about the last communication from the aircraft to air traffic control.

  • Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at the Transport Ministry, told a news conference on Sunday that the plane had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds.

  • "At 6.12 am, the pilot asked Jakarta tower to be allowed to move up to 38,000 feet from 32,000 feet and to fly around a bad cloud. The tower lost contact at 6.17am," Murjatmodjo told a media briefing at Indonesia's main international airport, the Soekarno-Hatta, outside Jakarta.
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-indonesia-flight-qz8501-pilot-asked-fly-higher-altitude-avoi#sthash.WTJeLBcM.JF1Ydm62.dpuf

The first information quoted above suggests that the pilot only asked to change altitude. The second suggests that he asked to change altitude and to change direction. Perhaps Murjatmodjo also meant to say that the pilot asked to change altitude to avoid the clouds, ie fly above them. I guess one can fly around a cloud also on a vertically -- not doing a full circle, of course -- not just horizontally.

I believe the safest reply is: "that depends". If "loops" around a cloud are disallowed, how about "flat spins"?

There is the horrific story of Pulkovo 612 08/22/06 - Wiki, which AFAIC is a prophetic parallel to the AF447 loss.

"Early reports suggest that Flight 612 may have been caught in a thunderstorm; immediately prior to the crash, the pilots notified air traffic control that they were experiencing severe turbulence. According to the residents of a nearby town, the weather at the time of the crash was violent enough to cause power outages and cell phone disruptions on the ground. Authorities on the scene have speculated that the aircraft was struck by lightning which may have initiated an onboard fire. However, another theory has since been proposed. Based on various information, including the partially decrypted from a recovered flight recorder crash investigators believe that the aircraft climbed to an altitude higher than the maximum for which it was designed, causing the aircraft to enter into a flat spin from which it never recovered." (edited - emphasis mine)

Pulkovo 612 Flight Simulation - YouTube (Becomes dramatic around 3 minutes in)

That video will keep me in nightmares for a long time to come.

For the first time in my life, I am starting to get seriously spooked about air travel. Does anyone else feel the same way or is my imagination in overdrive because of the recent tragedies?

The older i get the more scared i get about flying.

I took an Air Asia flight at 2pm today and it was not easy. I had to keep reminding myself that travelling by road is much more dangerous. I have a fear of heights which adds to my fears.

I am not at the point yet where i will not fly anymore and travel by road. I keep reminding myself that if i stay off the roads i will live longer.

Posted

Terribly sad news, thoughts with all concerned.

Once the wreckage is found they will get all the definitive answers.

Ice Crystal Icing is one potential threat which can lead to engine problems. It's a fairly new discovery and with ongoing development and understanding.

A weather radar failure in this part of the region would pose some real challenges for a crew.

Thunderstorm activity is a threat to airline safety and is one faced by crews on a daily basis. A healthy respect is required when it comes to the challenges posed by weather.

Flight dispatch who generate the flight plan should take into account any potential threat posed by weather en route and plan accordingly. If the crew are not happy then they can request a new flight plan prior to departure. The area on the chart will provide the required information to the crews on the type of cloud and turbulence and icing associated with that area. The area depicted on the chart might be quite large but once airborne the actual conditions might differ.

Best not to try and climb over a thunderstorm. Avoid it laterally by at least 20 miles when at high altitude if possible. This normally involves using the weather radar properly with a good understanding of the area of operation. As an example thunderstorms are much less reflective over water and require an appropriate amount of tilt to ensure you paint the correct picture on your navigation display. The new automatic radars work pretty well but some form of manual intervention is sometimes required.

Safety is first and foremost. Passenger comfort will follow based on logical safe operation.

Weather deviation will require some form of communication with air traffic control. On occasion this may not be possible but the crew will still deviate to avoid flying through a thunderstorm I hope.

The upper winds in this region tend not to be too strong but there are some fairly extensive thunderstorms present both during day and night.

  • Like 1
Posted

I see conflicting information given by two Indonesian officials about the last communication from the aircraft to air traffic control.

  • Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at the Transport Ministry, told a news conference on Sunday that the plane had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds.

  • "At 6.12 am, the pilot asked Jakarta tower to be allowed to move up to 38,000 feet from 32,000 feet and to fly around a bad cloud. The tower lost contact at 6.17am," Murjatmodjo told a media briefing at Indonesia's main international airport, the Soekarno-Hatta, outside Jakarta.
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-indonesia-flight-qz8501-pilot-asked-fly-higher-altitude-avoi#sthash.WTJeLBcM.JF1Ydm62.dpuf

The first information quoted above suggests that the pilot only asked to change altitude. The second suggests that he asked to change altitude and to change direction. Perhaps Murjatmodjo also meant to say that the pilot asked to change altitude to avoid the clouds, ie fly above them. I guess one can fly around a cloud also on a vertically -- not doing a full circle, of course -- not just horizontally.

I believe the safest reply is: "that depends". If "loops" around a cloud are disallowed, how about "flat spins"?

There is the horrific story of Pulkovo 612 08/22/06 - Wiki, which AFAIC is a prophetic parallel to the AF447 loss.

"Early reports suggest that Flight 612 may have been caught in a thunderstorm; immediately prior to the crash, the pilots notified air traffic control that they were experiencing severe turbulence. According to the residents of a nearby town, the weather at the time of the crash was violent enough to cause power outages and cell phone disruptions on the ground. Authorities on the scene have speculated that the aircraft was struck by lightning which may have initiated an onboard fire. However, another theory has since been proposed. Based on various information, including the partially decrypted from a recovered flight recorder crash investigators believe that the aircraft climbed to an altitude higher than the maximum for which it was designed, causing the aircraft to enter into a flat spin from which it never recovered." (edited - emphasis mine)

Pulkovo 612 Flight Simulation - YouTube (Becomes dramatic around 3 minutes in)

That video will keep me in nightmares for a long time to come.

For the first time in my life, I am starting to get seriously spooked about air travel. Does anyone else feel the same way or is my imagination in overdrive because of the recent tragedies?

My sincere apologies. So I guess your wanting to read a transcript of the Pulkovo 612 CVR is out of the question then?

Posted (edited)

From Air Asia's website:

The flight of the airline AirAsia Indonesia QZ8501.

Airline AirAsia Indonesia Please Amendment nationality of passengers and crew on Flight QZ8501 as detailed below nationality of passengers 1 Singapore 1 Malaysia 3 South Korea 1 United Kingdom 149. Indonesian nationality of the crew 1 France 6 IndonesiaAirAsia Indonesia has once more. We will notify you immediately. The tracker www.airasia.com

It's quite shocking how this year ends. I'm not in the mood sending people New Year wishes.....blink.png

http://crisis.airasia.com/thth/index.html

Edited by lostinisaan
Posted (edited)

RE: No radio contact.

There are situations where the pilots are so busy trying to fly the plane that they don't have the extra mental or physical capacity to do anything else.

Edited by NeverSure
  • Like 2
Posted

It's currently 22:24PM local time, both search from sea and sky have ended.

Quote: Victims's family have left the crisis center now, and all transported to Juanda International Airport's hotel. They promised to give the victim's family more explanation at 8AM tomorrow morning

Before they leave, SAR gives an explanation that the plane might have attempted an emergency landing in Teluk Kumai.

Source: http://news.detik.com/read/2014/12/28/221004/2788532/10/keluarga-penumpang-tinggalkan-crisis-center-diinapkan-di-hotel-bandara-juanda

Posted

The conspiracy theorists will be all over this one soon.

its not a conspiracy that indonesian and Malaysian police arrested 12 terrorists from Surabaya trying to leave to Syria and to join isis.

  • Like 1
Posted

Personally once someone has posted RIP and talks about prayers, there is no need for another 100+ saying the same thing, it doesn't add anything. Facts are good updates.

Really? How about you and let people say what they want about this situation. Not everyone is a life-hating atheist.

RIP and my prayers are with any survivors and the families of everyone on board.

I agree,,, that's a bit like telling someone that's late to a funeral,, "Sorry, we're all full up, we don't need your comments/sentiments",,,,, as long as the posts here stay civil, ON track,,, who CARES how many people care to offer their condolences,,, Don't like them?,,, don't read them,,,, pretty simple,,, from follow up info,, it appears they've found wreckage,,, so Ya,,,, RIP to the passengers involved,,,,

Posted (edited)

Probably a silly thing to say but what about the flight recorder / black box? Are they going to leave this aspect ignored like in the Malaysian airline disappearance or are they going to try and locate it?

When something like this happens every avenue must be explored you cant afford to try one and when it doesnt work think of what is next.

Come on guys get people on everything

tweets: Singapore's Air Accident Investigation Bureau has offered specialists & underwater locator beacon detectors to assist with search of #QZ8501

AFAIK all commercial aircraft carry ELT (Emergency Locator Transmitter) or EPIRB (Emergency Position-Indicating Radio Beacon) which are automatically activated on contact with water, but no word on any being detected, if they were activated surely they would have been picked up by now.

Edited by Basil B
Posted

They have to locate the wreckage tomorrow , this will not be a repeat of another missing aircraft , I do not believe in conspiracies but if this one goes missing as well I am a believer .

Posted
That video will keep me in nightmares for a long time to come.

For the first time in my life, I am starting to get seriously spooked about air travel. Does anyone else feel the same way or is my imagination in overdrive because of the recent tragedies?

The older i get the more scared i get about flying.

I took an Air Asia flight at 2pm today and it was not easy. I had to keep reminding myself that travelling by road is much more dangerous. I have a fear of heights which adds to my fears.

I am not at the point yet where i will not fly anymore and travel by road. I keep reminding myself that if i stay off the roads i will live longer.

It doesn't scare me at all. As said, it's the safest way to travel. It's just big news when it happens. There were thousands of planes in the air, day after day before this happened. I'm more afraid to walk in a crosswalk.

I'm relieved when that plane takes off and I know I don't have anything to do until we get there, unlike driving or riding a scooter. I usually fall asleep.

Ask a doctor for a beta blocker. It's a heart medicine that won't hurt you but it blocks the body's ability to release adrenaline. You'll stay calm without feeling tranquilized. I'm a musician (pianist) and I once developed a horrible case of stage fright. I couldn't play due to mental and physical reactions. My doctor gave me a beta blocker and all of those symptoms disappeared. I needed the med only a few times until I regained confidence.

  • Like 1
Posted

Ask a doctor for a beta blocker. It's a heart medicine that won't hurt you but it blocks the body's ability to release adrenaline. You'll stay calm without feeling tranquilized.

Always handy when the plane's in a vertical spin.

I don't like flying either, but it's a necessity in my life.

  • Like 1
Posted

Simply put, the pilot should have turned back.

Easy for you to say.

If the weather was as bad as that first satellite image on here showed, I would have turned back or chosen an alternate landing location.

By far it wouldn't be the first time. Planes are regularly grounded or sent to alternate airports due to weather and often due to thunderstorms. At some point it is considered the wise thing to do to turn back or ask for an alternate airport.

BTW all speculation that the pilot tried to outclimb a thunderstorm is off the charts. First, the plane can't do it and second, if he could get above a thunderstorm he'd be toast. Thunderstorms are deadly for several reasons (hail stalling the compressors and losing all thrust, violent wind shear etc.) and no sane pilot goes near one intentionally.

Posted

EDIT: Spillchekker

Blimey.

Anyway, my point is we weren't in control of the aircraft and making split second decisions. Doesn't matter if you've been sitting in a tower for six or twelve years. You're no more qualified than I.

What we do have in common is the ability to promote our definition of hindsight. Like I said, easy to say.

Posted

Simply put, the pilot should have turned back.

Easy for you to say.

If the weather was as bad as that first satellite image on here showed, I would have turned back or chosen an alternate landing location.

By far it wouldn't be the first time. Planes are regularly grounded or sent to alternate airports due to weather and often due to thunderstorms. At some point it is considered the wise thing to do to turn back or ask for an alternate airport.

BTW all speculation that the pilot tried to outclimb a thunderstorm is off the charts. First, the plane can't do it and second, if he could get above a thunderstorm he'd be toast. Thunderstorms are deadly for several reasons (hail stalling the compressors and losing all thrust, violent wind shear etc.) and no sane pilot goes near one intentionally.

Flights in US are delayed or rerouted for much less than what that radar showed.

  • Like 2
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