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Posted

Thailand has a floating currency rate and is determined by the market forces of supply & demand. How much demand there is in relation to supply of a currency will determine the currency's value in relation to another country's currencies.

I believe Thailand's economy is ok...better than during the protests but probably worse than pre - protest.

Trade surplus will increase the demand for country's currency by foreigners, so there should be appreciation in value. A trade deficit would weaken the currency.

Thailand is basically self sufficient in many areas but the previous high cost of oil that has now been greatly reduced has helped ease the flight of Thai baht from the country which probably offsets any real improvement in the economy.

A country's currency has nothing to do with gold reserve..although it probably should...but this gets into the argument of gold vs fiat currency.

The Foreign exchange market ( Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. It is by far the largest Market in the world in terms of volume of trading, The main players in the Forex are the large international banks.

Unfortunately, the Western banksters control (or try to) the World. All the Markets are fixed now.. the Stock Market,Forex etc.

Capitalism has been replaced.

The large Banks are too Big to Fail but they will..It's all a "House of Cards" ready to collapse.

Thailand is in the middle..not doing great & not doing that terrible.

A couple of points:

THB is not a freely convertible currency plus it is very small in global currency terms, western banks are not interested in controlling or manipulating THB, even if they could (which they can't). The only entity that could manipulate THB is BOT and if/when they do so, evidence is clearly seen that they have done so.

The Thai baht is an independent, free-floating currency.

From 1956 until 1997, the baht was pegged to the US dollar until the Asian Financial crisis..then was floated since then.

The Banks control the Forex, the Foreign Exchange Market.

Traders on the Forex can influence a currency..one can look at the run on the Russian Rouble.

It's to do with money coming in & money going out.Thailand is relatively stable..Fewer Thai Baht going out to buy barrels of oil vs any improvement in the economy.

Canada's rate of exchange along with other nations is due to less dollars coming in from oil..when oil is $120+ a barrel the Canadian dollar will be even or maybe a little above the US dollar.

yes BOT can support the Baht...buy buying Baht back.

As Captbonio stated in a previous post..."it's not so much that the Baht is strong , but rather that the others are weak".

With the Japanese Yen decline I expect a currency war in se asia..so I too expect the Thai Baht exchange to drop so that Thailand will remain competitive in exports.

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Posted

Last I looked the other day the US, Canada and Aussie $ had all dropped... two or three baht... sad.png

One does have to wonder why, the baht is so strong, for sure~ !

I to am watching the Canadian dollar bleed against the Thai baht and am puzzled. The Set is holding its own as well. I think the baht is linked to the American dollar in some way. The economy here does not look all that promising. The yen, euro, ruble have dropped so that will mean a big drop in tourism. A lot of the car manufacturers are looking elsewhere to set up shop consumers are loaded with debt. Chiang Mai is overbuilt so I would presume the rest of the country is to. We have no water for all the new buildings going up and God knows where the sewage is going I even hate to speculate about this one. I say a prayer each time I pull the handle. Pollution is building and they want to build more coal fired power plants in the future. My crystal ball imploded. The whole world is crazy.

In case you have been in a coma for the last few months. Oil - one of Canada's key exports - has lost 50% of it's value over the last 6months. And many other ocmmodities which Canada exports have seen similar declines.

Hence, the C$ is weakening.

It's rather amazing that a Canadian wouldn't know what's going on in his own country. But it's not surprising that his knowledge of the Thai economy is so dismal.

Every time a thread like this comes up, it's obvious who's being hurt financially by the strong baht. It's the guys who try to rationalize why the baht should be weaker. At least this time, we don't have to listen to whining/whinging Americans because the dollar is holding its own. (note that I'm an American)

Posted

Except THB cannot be exported hence FOREX manipulation is only possible in country by BOT licensed banks.

are you saying the Thai baht is not traded on the Forex?

"The Thai Baht in the Forex Market

According to the Bank for International Settlements or BIS, the Thai Baht ranked 26th among the most actively traded currencies in the forex market in April 2010, accounting for 0.2 percent of average daily forex market trading volume that month.

The Thai Baht trades most actively against the U.S. Dollar as the counter currency in the USD/THB currency pair. In the foreign exchange market, this pair is typically known as Dollar Baht. The Thai Baht lacks a popular nickname in the forex market, so it is typically referred to simply as the Thai Baht by forex traders.

Furthermore, due to Thailand’s industrial and service led free-market economy, the Thai Baht has enjoyed considerable interest among traders in the forex market despite its status as an exotic currency. Nevertheless, since Thailand is a net importer of fuels, raw materials and capital goods, and a net exporter of textiles, shoes, and electronics, the value of the Thai Baht can be influenced by fluctuations in the relative values of those items." http://www.ozforex.com.au/news-commentary/forex-wiki/currency-encyclopedia/thb

"How Soros earns $790 Million, crashes the Thai Baht and triggers the Asian crisis.

The second most notorious trade of Soros came in 1997 as he saw a possibility that the Thai Baht could go down so he went short on the baht (by going long on USD/THB) using forward contracts. His actions are often considered to be a triggering factor which formed the big Asian financial crisis affecting not only Thailand but also South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Honk Kong and others." http://forexillustrated.com/trading-strategies-biggest-trades-soros/

Posted

For some reason that is beyond me, Thailands economy as a whole appears to be Teflon coated at this moment in time, when other nations which also have weak performance metrics are being hammered.

Maybe the money markets are playing Thailand as some kind of haven bubble in the search for returns ?, but with the over inflated stock prices and manipulation in the SET, this senario will very quickly change, as other countries become better chances for returns.

Russia looks good for high returns in the near future, as Oil finds its way back up.

Posted

Except THB cannot be exported hence FOREX manipulation is only possible in country by BOT licensed banks.

are you saying the Thai baht is not traded on the Forex?

"The Thai Baht in the Forex Market

According to the Bank for International Settlements or BIS, the Thai Baht ranked 26th among the most actively traded currencies in the forex market in April 2010, accounting for 0.2 percent of average daily forex market trading volume that month.

The Thai Baht trades most actively against the U.S. Dollar as the counter currency in the USD/THB currency pair. In the foreign exchange market, this pair is typically known as Dollar Baht. The Thai Baht lacks a popular nickname in the forex market, so it is typically referred to simply as the Thai Baht by forex traders.

Furthermore, due to Thailand’s industrial and service led free-market economy, the Thai Baht has enjoyed considerable interest among traders in the forex market despite its status as an exotic currency. Nevertheless, since Thailand is a net importer of fuels, raw materials and capital goods, and a net exporter of textiles, shoes, and electronics, the value of the Thai Baht can be influenced by fluctuations in the relative values of those items." http://www.ozforex.com.au/news-commentary/forex-wiki/currency-encyclopedia/thb

"How Soros earns $790 Million, crashes the Thai Baht and triggers the Asian crisis.

The second most notorious trade of Soros came in 1997 as he saw a possibility that the Thai Baht could go down so he went short on the baht (by going long on USD/THB) using forward contracts. His actions are often considered to be a triggering factor which formed the big Asian financial crisis affecting not only Thailand but also South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Honk Kong and others." http://forexillustrated.com/trading-strategies-biggest-trades-soros/

Of course THB is in the FOREX market, but:

1) THB in that market is controlled by BOT since all THB transactions must go via BOT - if you don't believe this, try going into any Thai bank and ordering USD 50k of THB for delivery to an overseas bank!

2) Despite what various cheap web sites might say, Geroge Soros did not take a position against THB in the 1997 crash although he did so against the Ringit. The problem in Thailand that caused THB to go through the floor was its peg to USD and the huge amount of external debt (real estate loans mostly) denominated in USD for which there was no local currency support, as a consequence the peg was removed and the Baht was floated.

Posted

For some reason that is beyond me, Thailands economy as a whole appears to be Teflon coated at this moment in time, when other nations which also have weak performance metrics are being hammered.

Maybe the money markets are playing Thailand as some kind of haven bubble in the search for returns ?, but with the over inflated stock prices and manipulation in the SET, this senario will very quickly change, as other countries become better chances for returns.

Russia looks good for high returns in the near future, as Oil finds its way back up.

Thailand is definitely vulnerable to outside forces & we all probably agree that the Thai economy can't be that great but is holding it's own..the US dollar is increasing in value so Americans in Thailand aren't probably feeling any negative effect only positive exchange rates.

The Euro is a mess & oil producing economies like Canada are on the downward trend.Generally Asia is doing ok..except for Japan that has a GNP debt percentage of 212%..Thailand debt to GNP is about 46%..the US is debt is 72% of GNP.

Despite all the negative western press re. Russia they are ok..their debt to GNP is 12% and they have surplus money on hand not the 17 trillion dollars in debt the US has.

Putin has been buying discounted roubles with his over inflated in reserve US dollars as Russia moves away from the US petro dollar anyways and making trade deals with Asia as this is where the economies on the rise are.So I agree..Russia would be an excellent choice to invest.Russia is not selling it's gold..it's buying gold.the gold price is manipulated by the Forex to be under valued to keep the US dollar high.

Expect a financial reset in 2015 when the oil derivatives come due to low oil prices & the demise of the US fracking industry.

Where Thailand will be after that I have no idea as probably will be relative to our own currencies getting hammered.

Of course this is my opinion..At the moment I can still survive nicely in Thailand with my reduced exchange rates..I'm thinking maybe I should learn how to grow rice to prepare for the worst. wai2.gif

Posted

Checkout interest rates in the west and the very real prospect of deflation there and a slowdown in the recovery there goes quite a way in explaining why the bht is where it is.

Spot on. Forex is a market just like any other. Offer somebody 2.5% interest in Thai bank or 0.1% interest in UK bank, where will they keep their money? Everyone changing their home currency into THB is helping to push up the price as in any other market.

Posted

A good write up here for those interested in understanding what happened during the Asian crisis, as it refers to Thailand:

http://www.wright.edu/~tdung/asiancrisis-hill.htm

See the chapter entitled "meltdown in Thailand". It's interesting to note that BOT's strategy with regard to foreign currency reserves was a major factor in the need to remove the peg and eventually call in the IMF, had the currency reserves been better managed the crash in Thailand might possibly have looked quite different or even avoided to some extent.

Posted

Except THB cannot be exported hence FOREX manipulation is only possible in country by BOT licensed banks.

are you saying the Thai baht is not traded on the Forex?

"The Thai Baht in the Forex Market

According to the Bank for International Settlements or BIS, the Thai Baht ranked 26th among the most actively traded currencies in the forex market in April 2010, accounting for 0.2 percent of average daily forex market trading volume that month.

The Thai Baht trades most actively against the U.S. Dollar as the counter currency in the USD/THB currency pair. In the foreign exchange market, this pair is typically known as Dollar Baht. The Thai Baht lacks a popular nickname in the forex market, so it is typically referred to simply as the Thai Baht by forex traders.

Furthermore, due to Thailand’s industrial and service led free-market economy, the Thai Baht has enjoyed considerable interest among traders in the forex market despite its status as an exotic currency. Nevertheless, since Thailand is a net importer of fuels, raw materials and capital goods, and a net exporter of textiles, shoes, and electronics, the value of the Thai Baht can be influenced by fluctuations in the relative values of those items." http://www.ozforex.com.au/news-commentary/forex-wiki/currency-encyclopedia/thb

"How Soros earns $790 Million, crashes the Thai Baht and triggers the Asian crisis.

The second most notorious trade of Soros came in 1997 as he saw a possibility that the Thai Baht could go down so he went short on the baht (by going long on USD/THB) using forward contracts. His actions are often considered to be a triggering factor which formed the big Asian financial crisis affecting not only Thailand but also South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Honk Kong and others." http://forexillustrated.com/trading-strategies-biggest-trades-soros/

Soros did not face the restrictions in 1997 which exist since 2003!

Dear Client,

Thai Baht Currency Restrictions

Further to the Bank of Thailand’s Measure No. 33/2003 (Additional Measure to Prevent Thai Baht Speculation), which came into effect in October 2003, XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch is subject to restrictions affecting its holdings of Thai Baht currency. These include the following:

Maintaining THB accounts in Thailand for settlement purposes only, where settlement means the settlement of securities transactions and cash payment transactions. The exception is for deposits of a tenor of at least 6 months or more.

Forfeiture of credit interest on its accounts (other than deposits of a tenor of at least 6 months or more)

Ensuring that the aggregated end of day balances for cash accounts with all financial institutions in Thailand do not exceed THB 300 million (the “Daily THB Limit”)

Imposition of deposit charge on THB account balances.

In relation to the Daily THB Limit, XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch will be required to adjust its Thai Baht balances in all its client accounts to be compliant with the permitted level as determined by the Thai authorities on a daily basis. As such accounts may include balances in Thai Baht held on your behalf, it is critical that we are able to adjust client THB balances to ensure compliance.

Accordingly, at any time that you are holding a long position in THB, we reserve the right in our absolute discretion and without prior notice to you to convert your holding of THB, in whole or part, into United States dollars at the prevailing spot rate.

Yours truly,

XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch

Posted

Thailand has a floating currency rate and is determined by the market forces of supply & demand. How much demand there is in relation to supply of a currency will determine the currency's value in relation to another country's currencies.

I believe Thailand's economy is ok...better than during the protests but probably worse than pre - protest.

Trade surplus will increase the demand for country's currency by foreigners, so there should be appreciation in value. A trade deficit would weaken the currency.

Thailand is basically self sufficient in many areas but the previous high cost of oil that has now been greatly reduced has helped ease the flight of Thai baht from the country which probably offsets any real improvement in the economy.

A country's currency has nothing to do with gold reserve..although it probably should...but this gets into the argument of gold vs fiat currency.

The Foreign exchange market ( Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. It is by far the largest Market in the world in terms of volume of trading, The main players in the Forex are the large international banks.

Unfortunately, the Western banksters control (or try to) the World. All the Markets are fixed now.. the Stock Market,Forex etc.

Capitalism has been replaced.

The large Banks are too Big to Fail but they will..It's all a "House of Cards" ready to collapse.

Thailand is in the middle..not doing great & not doing that terrible.

Buying $ with Baht to pay for oil will reduce as this poster says, and these smaller transactions do improve the strenght of Baht, but political factors often produce investment selling which means buying $ reducing the value of Baht. So strength and weakness based on these and many other factors. FYI, the Baht and Philippine Peso were both in the range of 25 to US$. Only the Baht has recovered at all, Peso around 44 today. :( Good for exporters but not so good for investors who got caught.

Posted

Because the Thai economy is strong. Car manufacture & other massive manufacturing (& export) rice & rubber grows, tourism, although a bit down is still strong & borrowings for infrastucture are well within managable levels. (Unlike USA which is technically bankrupt)

Off subject but how did the Swiss Franc shoot up to 37bht last evening?

Posted

Because the Thai economy is strong. Car manufacture & other massive manufacturing (& export) rice & rubber grows, tourism, although a bit down is still strong & borrowings for infrastucture are well within managable levels. (Unlike USA which is technically bankrupt)

Off subject but how did the Swiss Franc shoot up to 37bht last evening?

Explained here: http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/switzerland-euro-currency-ceiling/index.html?iid=Lead

You'll also notice that the article expects the Euro to be on decline this year and into next.

Posted

Because the Thai economy is strong. Car manufacture & other massive manufacturing (& export) rice & rubber grows, tourism, although a bit down is still strong & borrowings for infrastucture are well within managable levels. (Unlike USA which is technically bankrupt)

Off subject but how did the Swiss Franc shoot up to 37bht last evening?

Explained here: http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/switzerland-euro-currency-ceiling/index.html?iid=Lead

You'll also notice that the article expects the Euro to be on decline this year and into next.

Actually, I was reading another article that was embedded in that article, to wit: http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/13/investing/dollar-euro-exchange-rate-currencies/index.html?iid=EL

That's the one that discussed the Euro v. Dollar.

Posted

I went to bed last night, slightly worried as the Swiss Frank has gradually sliding down to ฿32.-. Woke up this morning, it is now ฿37.70 and apparently it shot up to 48 overnight. The Swiss National Bank got rid of capping of the CHF/ Euro rate to 1.23. So I went and bought a roof this morning!

Posted

Strewth.

If people havent worked out yet that the issues are largely external to Thailand thry must be really dumb.

The following things have a huge effect on the baht beyond what occurs in the growth of the Thai economy

Interest rates for USD, GBP and eEuro

GDP growth forus, us, uk and euro

Inflation for us, uk and euro

Fiscal deficit for us, uk and euro

Global oil prices

Money supply for us, uk and euro

The issue is not that the baht is so strong it is that the uk is still funding a massive deficit, obama still prints boatloads of USD and the Greeks still might leave.

The stories have a result on the baht value 10 times larger than if Thai tourisum numbers at 25mn of 23 mn or if rice exports drop.

Try to think a little macro instead of being extremely micro. There are still massive issues globally that will take forever to solve.

Posted

Why al the volatility in the Baht.today.......Bkk Bnk is on its 5th adjustment today.

They're reading Thai Visa and found out the baht is not pegged to the dollar anymore.

Posted

ESPECIALLY would I want to drag the USA into this scenario.

- Geographical over expansion.

- Financial over expansion. (The astronomical budget-deficits are mostly covered by the rest of the world) and not by US-Citizens and their meager savings.

- The Influx of people from south of the Rio Grande will eventually have the same effect as 1600 years ago has happened the roman- empire.

Not ever have I seen such striking parallels in history as compared to the US of today versus the "the fall of the roman empire".

Same story, same outcome.. Except this time it happens in our lifetime.

Cheers.

You're nuts!

The Roman Empire fell due to invasion of goths, visigoths and because their army was weak.

As an American, I see people willing to give their lives so that their family has a green card. I see an army that is reasonably modern. I see no Canadian or Mexican army invading.

What do you think will cause us to collapse? Rising Oceans because of global warming? Ok maybe that's it.

Less crack and more swiss cheese!

As a footnote: Why was the army weak? Because a major part of the army was manned by "barbarians" and not romans in the final years of the empire. The rotten finances did not allow to pay their legionaries regularly anymore.= Financial overexpansion.

- All the green card chasers of today are nothing more than economic refugees unlike the "Mayflower" crowd, that came to build a nation based on their convictions and beliefs.

For an empire to fall it dosn't necessarily take an invading army. The de-solidarisation of a populace will have the same effect. By looking at the US, we can witness this process practically "on line" on a daily basis.

Cheers.

Posted

ESPECIALLY would I want to drag the USA into this scenario.

- Geographical over expansion.

- Financial over expansion. (The astronomical budget-deficits are mostly covered by the rest of the world) and not by US-Citizens and their meager savings.

- The Influx of people from south of the Rio Grande will eventually have the same effect as 1600 years ago has happened the roman- empire.

Not ever have I seen such striking parallels in history as compared to the US of today versus the "the fall of the roman empire".

Same story, same outcome.. Except this time it happens in our lifetime.

Cheers.

You're nuts!

The Roman Empire fell due to invasion of goths, visigoths and because their army was weak.

As an American, I see people willing to give their lives so that their family has a green card. I see an army that is reasonably modern. I see no Canadian or Mexican army invading.

What do you think will cause us to collapse? Rising Oceans because of global warming? Ok maybe that's it.

Less crack and more swiss cheese!

As a footnote: Why was the army weak? Because a major part of the army was manned by "barbarians" and not romans in the final years of the empire. The rotten finances did not allow to pay their legionaries regularly anymore.= Financial overexpansion.

- All the green card chasers of today are nothing more than economic refugees unlike the "Mayflower" crowd, that came to build a nation based on their convictions and beliefs.

For an empire to fall it dosn't necessarily take an invading army. The de-solidarisation of a populace will have the same effect. By looking at the US, we can witness this process practically "on line" on a daily basis.

Cheers.

I know how much you like the USA and Thailand but it's a pretty far stretch to link both of them to the Roman Empire. Why don't you give your nutty prejudices a rest for a while or open up a thread in the Anti USA forum or Anti Thai forum.

Posted

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

You feel this is the place to ask such a question ?

Thai Visa ? Have you read some of the offerings by the members of this forum ?... and their replies !!

If you had, you wouldn't even ask where the next street is let alone future predictions for foreign exchange.

Amazing !

And what kind of question would you like Him to ask?

Or Better Yet! Ask the Damned Question Yourself, so the rest of us can attack You like you did with the Op!

This is a Thai Form. His question was centered around the Thai Baht, which in case you did not know, is Thai Currency! So he was perfectly legal and within his rights to ask such a question here. If you don't understand things like Currency Exchange, then stay out of it.

But you, on the other hand with your reply, are not with in fare rule here! Nobody put a gun to your head to reply or read his post, and we certainly did ask you to represent us, and speak for us, and tell him what we think and want to read here. As You My Friend, have no idea!

Butt Out! If you cannot contribute something useful here then be quiet and read, if you know how. Which I am sure has been said to you many times before.

But not from me!

Posted

Except THB cannot be exported hence FOREX manipulation is only possible in country by BOT licensed banks.

are you saying the Thai baht is not traded on the Forex? "The Thai Baht in the Forex Market

According to the Bank for International Settlements or BIS, the Thai Baht ranked 26th among the most actively traded currencies in the forex market in April 2010, accounting for 0.2 percent of average daily forex market trading volume that month.

The Thai Baht trades most actively against the U.S. Dollar as the counter currency in the USD/THB currency pair. In the foreign exchange market, this pair is typically known as Dollar Baht. The Thai Baht lacks a popular nickname in the forex market, so it is typically referred to simply as the Thai Baht by forex traders.

Furthermore, due to Thailand’s industrial and service led free-market economy, the Thai Baht has enjoyed considerable interest among traders in the forex market despite its status as an exotic currency. Nevertheless, since Thailand is a net importer of fuels, raw materials and capital goods, and a net exporter of textiles, shoes, and electronics, the value of the Thai Baht can be influenced by fluctuations in the relative values of those items." http://www.ozforex.com.au/news-commentary/forex-wiki/currency-encyclopedia/thb

"How Soros earns $790 Million, crashes the Thai Baht and triggers the Asian crisis.

The second most notorious trade of Soros came in 1997 as he saw a possibility that the Thai Baht could go down so he went short on the baht (by going long on USD/THB) using forward contracts. His actions are often considered to be a triggering factor which formed the big Asian financial crisis affecting not only Thailand but also South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Honk Kong and others." http://forexillustrated.com/trading-strategies-biggest-trades-soros/

It is very actively traded on the fx Mkts....I sit 10 m away from one of the largest brokers in it and the don't stop all day....don't let anyone think it's on the sidelines .

Posted

Why al the volatility in the Baht.today.......Bkk Bnk is on its 5th adjustment today.

For what currency?

Posted

In 2011, Switzerland's central bank started to support the Euro at CHF 1.20/EUR and yesterday morning stopped this support, following which the EUR dropped sharply vis-à-vis the CHF. I do not know if and for what reason this may have had an effect on the Baht rate for currencies other than the EUR but I have noticed that the Baht weakend considerably against the Swiss Franc.

post-21260-0-07700700-1421406489_thumb.p post-21260-0-90727600-1421406994_thumb.p

Source of graphs: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/

Posted

In 2011, Switzerland's central bank started to support the Euro at CHF 1.20/EUR and yesterday morning stopped this support, following which the EUR dropped sharply vis-a-vis the CHF. I do not know if and for what reason this may have had an effect on the Baht rate for currencies other than the EUR but I have noticed that the Baht weakend considerably against the Swiss Franc.

attachicon.gifEUR-CHF.png attachicon.gifTHB per CHF.png

Source of graphs: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/

Ora rather the Swiss Franc strengthened against THB!

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