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Patong is dead.


hansgruber

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Yes, NKM .... I agree. I've made back my 'investments' with splendid returns over almost 20 years. I would no way even consider doing the same now, or even 8 years ago.

 

Even my Thai wife who is a glass half full sort of person has just started to see how bad business is in Phuket.

Edited by LivinginKata
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Hiphoplims have a frequent need to wear sunglasses in nightclubs (in the 'nob-esque' style) despite them being unlit and virtually pitch-black inside.

 

Ah, so wearing sunglasses in nightclubs is no longer cool?  

 

I was wondering why I could neither attract nor even see the pretty women in these clubs :)  

 

I was worried that it might be my dress sense.

article-2021973-0D3D96F100000578-334_468

 

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39 minutes ago, simon43 said:

 

 

 

Ah, so wearing sunglasses in nightclubs is no longer cool?  

 

I was wondering why I could neither attract nor even see the pretty women in these clubs :)  

 

I was worried that it might be my dress sense.

article-2021973-0D3D96F100000578-334_468

 

Jimmy Saville? :tongue:

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2 hours ago, NamKangMan said:

As another year comes to pass on Phuket, I remember the comments of members who would ridicule those who would say, "They are killing the golden goose" and many other similar comments. 

 

I ask, where are these members now, and what argument could they possibly mount against overwhelming evidence that Phuket has changed dramatically over the last 12 months. 

 

The Thai military has been in control of the country for well over 2 years, yet, the transport mafia on Phuket continue to destroy the tourism industry here, along with failing infrastructure, sewage freely flowing into the beach waters along the coast, a sharp rise in the crime rate - particularly involving violence and firearms, and a steady rise in prices which continues to make Phuket uncompetitive as a holiday destination.

 

I would suggest, it is now undeniable that Phuket is dying. 

 

"Pirate Island" as it is know in many expat circles, has robbed, raped and pillaged so many over the years that western tourist are now changing course for other destinations.

 

I agree with LIK's comment that Phuket is fine for expats, because "we know the ropes" but it is a mine field for tourists, and the word has now well and truly got out.

 

So, where to for Phuket in 2017?   Sadly, I think more of the same.

 

I predicted the "Phuket Financial Crisis" sometime ago, and I believe the island is still heading in that direction.  

 

A saying that sums up the Phuket tourism industry is, "You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time" and we are clearly seeing that now with the western tourism market.  

 

As stated previously, Phuket will not change, there are just too many Thai's here that feel they are entitled to an easy tourist baht, however, it's not difficult to notice that tourism has changed around Phuket's lack of change, and it hasn't been for the better. 

 

So, Happy New Year to those holding back Phuket's progress, for their own financial gain, and Good Luck for 2017 - you are going to need it.   

 

 

 

 

"too many Thai's here that feel they are entitled to an easy tourist baht"

 

Yep, that's the bottom line now. 

 

Talking  to some of the traders in JC’s they are having a very tough high season with some claiming trade down some 40% from last year...looking at the near empty malls (for high season) and a number of closures I suspect this figure may actually be higher.

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2 hours ago, NamKangMan said:

The Thai military has been in control of the country for well over 2 years, yet, the transport mafia on Phuket continue to destroy the tourism industry here, along with failing infrastructure, sewage freely flowing into the beach waters along the coast, a sharp rise in the crime rate - particularly involving violence and firearms, and a steady rise in prices which continues to make Phuket uncompetitive as a holiday destination.

 

You are quite right, and you forgot to mention the rise in drug use and drug dealing, with new offenders being caught almost daily.

 

The failing infrastructure is something that I have mentioned very often in my posts, because that in itself is a direct result of the amount of corruption, greed and stupidity inherent within the "hierarchy" here.

 

Everything that could have been done to lower the tone and desirability of the place, has been done by all of the greedy Thais wishing to dip their snouts into the tourist trough. And now that the cheaper tourists are arriving, there's not so much to go round, so something has to give.

 

I also agree with LIK's comment regarding the expats who live here, because we know the lay of the land and provided we stay focused, we shouldn't fall prey to the likes of the timeshare touts, 13% investment returns on property, buying apartments and condos off the plans and so on.

 

Having said that, the new arrivals are still fair game and just yesterday I saw a lovestruck farang (he could not stop touching, stroking and kissing his bovine-like girlfriend) in the process of negotiating some deal or another with a farang and when he actually turned to his girlfriend and stated, "there you go are you happy now?" and giving her a hug, I pretty well knew that another farang was having his savings or pension tapped into; so the gullible and weak minded are still coming to the place.

 

Unfortunately it's also bringing in the cheap and nasty – – cheap Chinese, rough Russians and French-African scum along with a few others and when every business owner I know is lamenting the fact that spend is seriously down and they don't know if they can survive, the influx of the aforementioned tourists will almost certainly put the seal on their fate.

 

Such a shame to see what could have been a lovely place ruined by greed and small mindedness.

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, xylophone said:

 

You are quite right, and you forgot to mention the rise in drug use and drug dealing, with new offenders being caught almost daily.

 

The failing infrastructure is something that I have mentioned very often in my posts, because that in itself is a direct result of the amount of corruption, greed and stupidity inherent within the "hierarchy" here.

 

Everything that could have been done to lower the tone and desirability of the place, has been done by all of the greedy Thais wishing to dip their snouts into the tourist trough. And now that the cheaper tourists are arriving, there's not so much to go round, so something has to give.

 

I also agree with LIK's comment regarding the expats who live here, because we know the lay of the land and provided we stay focused, we shouldn't fall prey to the likes of the timeshare touts, 13% investment returns on property, buying apartments and condos off the plans and so on.

 

Having said that, the new arrivals are still fair game and just yesterday I saw a lovestruck farang (he could not stop touching, stroking and kissing his bovine-like girlfriend) in the process of negotiating some deal or another with a farang and when he actually turned to his girlfriend and stated, "there you go are you happy now?" and giving her a hug, I pretty well knew that another farang was having his savings or pension tapped into; so the gullible and weak minded are still coming to the place.

 

Unfortunately it's also bringing in the cheap and nasty – – cheap Chinese, rough Russians and French-African scum along with a few others and when every business owner I know is lamenting the fact that spend is seriously down and they don't know if they can survive, the influx of the aforementioned tourists will almost certainly put the seal on their fate.

 

Such a shame to see what could have been a lovely place ruined by greed and small mindedness.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

'touching, stroking and kissing his bovine-like girlfriend"

 

hee hee...:smile:

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1 hour ago, simon43 said:

 

 

 

Ah, so wearing sunglasses in nightclubs is no longer cool?  

I was wondering why I could neither attract nor even see the pretty women in these clubs :)  

I was worried that it might be my dress sense.

 

 

 

uhhh, if that's what you look like old bean, then you are gay, gay, gay and that would explain why  pretty women are cruising the guys who aren't  80 year old gays. Sorry.

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50 minutes ago, billythehat said:

Jimmy Saville? :tongue:

 

 

No Karl Lagerfeld the very flamboyant elderly gay fashion designer. He  was walking around the Dusit in Bang Tao in the  Dusit bathrobe about 20 years ago when I first came to Thailand. His  skinny American toy boy or  assistant or whatever he was, walked  5 paces behind and  did as he was told. Even then he  had a white ponytail and waved his fan.

 

And I laugh at Patong's demise. No other island deserves  and has earned the misery that Phuket will have.

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Allot of Phuket "death spiral" prognostications in this thread.

 

Phuket does indeed have some major problems, worst of which is the disgusting and dangerous raw sewage polluting its beach waters.

 

However,what other place can seriously threaten to takeover Phuket's crown as Asia's top beach destination in the medium term?

 

 

Edited by Mysterion
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The big increase in Hotel prices over the last couple of years don't help --an example- the C&N where I always stayed has priced me out of that hotel--Standard room was 900-1400b depending on the season now 1900 low season---2450b right now  -- :sad:

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Quote

 


uhhh, if that's what you look like old bean, then you are gay, gay, gay...
 

 

 

Doh! It was sarcasm :)  ==> A form of humour which is totally lost on some...

 

I would never wear gloves like that

 

Happy New Year to all

Edited by simon43
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14 hours ago, billythehat said:

"too many Thai's here that feel they are entitled to an easy tourist baht"

 

Yep, that's the bottom line now. 

 

Talking  to some of the traders in JC’s they are having a very tough high season with some claiming trade down some 40% from last year...looking at the near empty malls (for high season) and a number of closures I suspect this figure may actually be higher.

When I was in JC last July it was like a Ghost Mall --the centre of it where the boat and water feature are--were closed off because  the concrete beams below were showing signs of stress--maybe the weight of water wasn't calculated ?? --has that been fixed up now ??

 

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9 hours ago, Mysterion said:

However,what other place can seriously threaten to takeover Phuket's crown as Asia's top beach destination in the medium term?

 

Anywhere without sewerage running into the sea and freely on the roads after heavy rain; without jet-ski touts threatening violence if their scams don't come off; without crazy prices for a 100 mtr ride in a tuk tuk; somewhere that allows loungers and umbrellas on the beach........oh, and somewhere that isn't full of cheapskates and louts.

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NKM here is a shopping list of predictions that were laughed at by other members.  Care to add anything:

 

1. Toxicity of water on Phuket beaches reaching biohazard levels:  Tick

2. Increase in violent crime against foreigners with theft as motive: Tick

3. Increase in violent crime against foreigners due to resentment and  nationalism: Tick

4. Increase in drug usage and drug trade due to unemployment in lower classes that where cleared off the beaches: Tick

5. No interuptions whatsoever to business of jet ski and parasail operations: Tick

6.  Collapse of the traditional beer bar business model: Tick

7.  Rapid islamization of Phuket: Tick

8. Removal of major developments in National Park areas around Nai Thon would not occur despite many so called investigations.  I note that the Pullman and Trisara are infact working on additional new developments as I type: Tick

9.  After a brief hiatus the Tuk Tuk situation would return to "normal": Tick

10. Tuk Tuk operators would begin to feed upon themselves in the absence of western quality tourists to prey upon.  I note a spate of Thai on Thai Tuk Tuk murders in the past few months: Tick

11. Western tourists would eventually stop going to Phuket all together in favor of other destinations such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar: Tick

12. Increase in Thai on Thai violence, especially rape, due to drug usage: Tick

13. Increase in road deaths due to everyone rushing out to borrow for a new car to get the 100K cash back from Yingluck.  At the time it was suggested that there should be a class action raised for gross negligence.  Thousands, perhaps millions, of Thais were cajoled into car ownership due to this cash handout but not a single satang was spent on increasing driver awareness and training: Tick

14. Visa restrictions would continue and in out border runs and the ED visa would become unworkable: Tick

15.  Many foreigners with significant skin in the game, in terms of property and business assets, would be stuck in Phuket unable to sell those assets.  I recall the repeated use of phrases such as "get out now, while you can": Tick

16. Buses, Songtaels, or other cheap public transport....Sigh...can even finish this point...too damn depressing

17. Focussing on Chinese would make a few hiso hoteliers and bus company owners rich while the workaday Thais in small business would go broke: Tick

18. Eventually negative word of mouth would adversely affect visitation from Chinese: Tick

19. The last few remaining coral gardens around the island would be destroyed due to sediment run off from inapropriate mountainside development.  The southern point at Nai Thon is a relevant example.  I also note some recent developments appearing on the hillside behind Ao Sane: Tick

20. Increase of animal show business models to cater for Chinese: Tick

21. Marine safety related incidents and deaths would continue to increase: Tick

22. The number of foreigner deaths attributed to suicide would continue to increase: Tick

23. Moves toward the creation of one internet gateway would continue: Tick

24. The death toll from runaway buses on Patong hill would continue.  What happen to the ban that required buses approach from Kamala?: Tick

25. Thepkrassatri Road will continue to hold the title as the most lethal stip of tarmac on the planet.  A week or so ago a taxi hit two Russians on a motorbike.  One killed, leg ripped off I think, other critical.  But "importantly" the one guy did not die on the bitumen, he made it as far as Thalang hospital apparently...so one dead, and another's life turned upside down forever...but the road death statistics for Thailand did not increase at all.  Because as we all know, you have to die on the road itself to be counted: Tick

26. In a last ditch bid to save tourism on Phuket, casinos are  built at Patong and Nai Harn: Pending?

 

 

 

Edited by Bulldozer Dawn
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9 hours ago, Bucko said:

The big increase in Hotel prices over the last couple of years don't help --an example- the C&N where I always stayed has priced me out of that hotel--Standard room was 900-1400b depending on the season now 1900 low season---2450b right now  -- :sad:

Your comment refers to one hotel who must be using the Thai business model of raising prices when business is down

 

There's a huge surfeit of rooms in Patong and many hotels and guesthouses are offering unprecedented cheap high season prices. They may not be offering those prices online but go to Patong and look around and you'll find them.

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37 minutes ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

NKM here is a shopping list of predictions that were laughed at by other members.  Care to add anything:

 

1. Toxicity of water on Phuket beaches reaching biohazard levels:  Tick

2. Increase in violent crime against foreigners with theft as motive: Tick

3. Increase in violent crime against foreigners due to resentment and  nationalism: Tick

4. Increase in drug usage and drug trade due to unemployment in lower classes that where cleared off the beaches: Tick

5. No interuptions whatsoever to business of jet ski and parasail operations: Tick

6.  Collapse of the traditional beer bar business model: Tick

7.  Rapid islamization of Phuket: Tick

8. Removal of major developments in National Park areas around Nai Thon would not occur despite many so called investigations.  I note that the Pullman and Trisara are infact working on additional new developments as I type: Tick

9.  After a brief hiatus the Tuk Tuk situation would return to "normal": Tick

10. Tuk Tuk operators would begin to feed upon themselves in the absence of western quality tourists to prey upon.  I note a spate of Thai on Thai Tuk Tuk murders in the past few months: Tick

11. Western tourists would eventually stop going to Phuket all together in favor of other destinations such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar: Tick

12. Increase in Thai on Thai violence, especially rape, due to drug usage: Tick

13. Increase in road deaths due to everyone rushing out to borrow for a new car to get the 100K cash back from Yingluck.  At the time it was suggested that there should be a class action raised for gross negligence.  Thousands, perhaps millions, of Thais were cajoled into car ownership due to this cash handout but not a single satang was spent on increasing driver awareness and training: Tick

14. Visa restrictions would continue and in out border runs and the ED visa would become unworkable: Tick

15.  Many foreigners with significant skin in the game, in terms of property and business assets, would be stuck in Phuket unable to sell those assets.  I recall the repeated use of phrases such as "get out now, while you can": Tick

16. Buses, Songtaels, or other cheap public transport....Sigh...can even finish this point...too damn depressing

17. Focussing on Chinese would make a few hiso hoteliers and bus company owners rich while the workaday Thais in small business would go broke: Tick

18. Eventually negative word of mouth would adversely affect visitation from Chinese: Tick

19. The last few remaining coral gardens around the island would be destroyed due to sediment run off from inapropriate mountainside development.  The southern point at Nai Thon is a relevant example.  I also note some recent developments appearing on the hillside behind Ao Sane: Tick

20. Increase of animal show business models to cater for Chinese: Tick

21. Marine safety related incidents and deaths would continue to increase: Tick

22. The number of foreigner deaths attributed to suicide would continue to increase: Tick

23. Moves toward the creation of one internet gateway would continue: Tick

24. The death toll from runaway buses on Patong hill would continue.  What happen to the ban that required buses approach from Kamala?: Tick

25. Thepkrassatri Road will continue to hold the title as the most lethal stip of tarmac on the planet.  A week or so ago a taxi hit two Russians on a motorbike.  One killed, leg ripped off I think, other critical.  But "importantly" the one guy did not die on the bitumen, he made it as far as Thalang hospital apparently...so one dead, and another's life turned upside down forever...but the road death statistics for Thailand did not increase at all.  Because as we all know, you have to die on the road itself to be counted: Tick

26. In a last ditch bid to save tourism on Phuket, casinos are  built at Patong and Nai Harn: Pending?

 

 

 

 

 

Quite a comprehensive list, BD.  Hard to argue against any of your points.

 

I would probably add:

 

27.  Increasing traffic on the roads on Phuket, with even a short journey taking more time to complete. (you were probably going to say this in Point 16)  This has / will lead to more noise and air pollution.

 

28.  Failing infrastructure, which will be particularly noticed with more power black outs, water cut offs, flooding, and disintegrating roadways.

 

29.  A sharp increase in derelict buildings, both commercial and residential, as people walk away.

 

30.  A sharp increase in police corruption (yes - it is possible) as their traditional sources of "tea money" dry up, they will be looking to extort money in other ways.

 

I would have left out Laos as an alternative holiday destination as it is land locked. 

Edited by NamKangMan
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Just now, madmitch said:

Your comment refers to one hotel who must be using the Thai business model of raising prices when business is down

 

There's a huge surfeit of rooms in Patong and many hotels and guesthouses are offering unprecedented cheap high season prices. They may not be offering those prices online but go to Patong and look around and you'll find them.

 

No they are offering them online as well.  A few months back, admittedly not yet high season, my girl and me stayed in a 5 star (maybe 4 star not sure) hotel on the beach in Patong.  Lovely room, with studio style sofa area and massive bathroom.  Valet park the car (free parking) access to a nice gym and big swimming pool, and a free full western/thai fusion buffet breakfast including bacon, milk, fresh juices, brewed coffee, pastries, cut fruit...etc.  Booked via agoda website.  Total cost for room including free buffet breakfast for two: 632 Thai Baht.

 

They are losing money hand over fist at this rate  but I suspect that they endeavor to keep rooms occupied so as to not have to let staff go and then be faced with the problem of rehiring for high season.

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10 hours ago, Mysterion said:

Allot of Phuket "death spiral" prognostications in this thread.

 

Phuket does indeed have some major problems, worst of which is the disgusting and dangerous raw sewage polluting its beach waters.

 

However,what other place can seriously threaten to takeover Phuket's crown as Asia's top beach destination in the medium term?

 

 

 

 

"However,what other place can seriously threaten to takeover Phuket's crown as Asia's top beach destination in the medium term?" - tourism to Vietnam has increased 26%. 

 

I would say Danang and Nha Trang saw a lot of that 26%, with Phu Quoc's tourism increasing as well. 

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NKM

 

The reason that I included Laos in the alternative new destination list is that I recently met a very astute young German guy.  He has recently developed a huge eco style resort beside a beautiful major river in the north of Laos.  Stunning natural timber and surrounding environment.  The money to do this was just 250K US (supplied by his dad).  The lad had a huge gallery of photos on his laptop.  The place is already enjoying healthly occupany levels.  The targeted guest????  Middle aged western women (Think eat, pray, love) who stay there for a yoga holiday.  The resort features a lovely timber yoga (dojo???) over looking the river valley.  He told me about 75% of his customers used to go to Phuket, but now it is too busy and stressful for them.

Edited by Bulldozer Dawn
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Just now, NamKangMan said:

 

 

Quite a comprehensive list, BD.  Hard to argue against any of your points.

 

I would probably add:

 

27.  Increasing traffic on the roads on Phuket, with even a short journey taking more time to complete. (you were probably going to say this in Point 16)  This has / will lead to more noise and air pollution.

 

28.  Failing infrastructure, which will be particularly noticed with more power black outs, water cut offs, flooding, and disintegrating roadways.

 

29.  A sharp increase in derelict buildings, both commercial and residential, as people walk away.

 

30.  A sharp increase in police corruption (yes - it is possible) as their traditional sources of "tea money" dry up, they will be looking to extort money in other ways.

 

I would have left out Laos as an alternative holiday destination as it is land locked. 

 

Oh....how could I forget...

 

31. Death toll arising from visa run mini bus incidents would continue unabated.  Note that I use incident and not accident.  Nothing accidental about a speeding untrained driver high on meth amphetamines crashing a vehicle: Tick

Edited by Bulldozer Dawn
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Just now, NamKangMan said:

 

 

"However,what other place can seriously threaten to takeover Phuket's crown as Asia's top beach destination in the medium term?" - tourism to Vietnam has increased 26%. 

 

I would say Danang and Nha Trang saw a lot of that 26%, with Phu Quoc's tourism increasing as well. 

 

Myanmar has over 400 islands, many of which are far more stunning that what Phuket was in its prime.

 

Let us also not forget that Phuket is actually a regenerated mining site.  The many lakes around the island are old mine sites.  The ground water table on the island, from which its denizens drink (if not directly, then indirectly), both Thai and foreigner alike, has been filtering through the residues of decades of digging for tin and lead.  The streets in Phuket are not named Dibuk and Takua for nothing.

 

Edited by Bulldozer Dawn
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12 hours ago, Mysterion said:

Allot of Phuket "death spiral" prognostications in this thread.

 

Phuket does indeed have some major problems, worst of which is the disgusting and dangerous raw sewage polluting its beach waters.

 

However,what other place can seriously threaten to takeover Phuket's crown as Asia's top beach destination in the medium term?

 

 

 

Boracay is nice, as is Bohol, Malapascua and Puerto Galera. Trat has potential, but I think Sihanoukville will eclipse Phuket most likely in the medium term. Have you been to any of these places?

 

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I would have left out Laos as an alternative holiday destination as it is land locked. 

 

It has a nice beach (in the dry season), just opposite Nong Khai.  I've sat in a deckchair on that beach with a cold Beer Lao.

 

Just have to watch out for the big lorries scooping up the 'beach'  :shock1:

 



He has recently developed a huge eco style resort beside a beautiful major river in the north of Laos. 

 

I looked at Laos about 10 years ago, with the idea of building an eco-resort.  At that time, there were major infrastructure issues, as well as the nearest Makro wholesaler being ... er ... in another country (ie Thailand).

 

I still have plans to open a small resort in Laos as a 'retirement' project, but need to save a billion Lao Kip to allow me to legally own the business 100%.

 

There are some good opportunities in Laos for eco-related investments, with Lao government incentives.  This website is a joint project with consultants from The Netherlands.

 

http://www.ecotourismlaos.com/

 

 

 

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There are definately better beaches and lovely charming towns all across SE Asia, but which of them offer Phuket's combination of:

- easy global flight accessibility

- " good" beaches

- world famous entertainment (bangla and discos and shows etc)

- western quality amenities of malls, theaters, dining, hospitals etc

- foreign freehold ownership of condos

 

Could it take 10-20 years for any real competitor to emerge/develop and threaten Phuket?

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

There are definately better beaches and lovely charming towns all across SE Asia, but which of them offer Phuket's combination of:

- easy global flight accessibility

- " good" beaches

- world famous entertainment (bangla and discos and shows etc)

- western quality amenities of malls, theaters, dining, hospitals etc

- foreign freehold ownership of condos

 

Could it take 10-20 years for any real competitor to emerge/develop and threaten Phuket?

 

 

 

 

 

- easy global flight accessibility

 

Sihanoukville is in the process of upgrading its airport.

 

" good" beaches

 

you'll have to define that, as in no raw sewage or jet skis?

 

- world famous entertainment (bangla and discos and shows etc)

 

do you mean prostitution?  or drugged out tiger kingdom, or dolphinariums or ladyboy shows?

 

- western quality amenities of malls, theaters, dining, hospitals etc

 

dining yes, hospitals no. Jungceylon, pillow factories, gem stone stores?

 

foreign freehold ownership of condos

 

coming soon

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

There are definately better beaches and lovely charming towns all across SE Asia, but which of them offer Phuket's combination of:

- easy global flight accessibility

- " good" beaches

- world famous entertainment (bangla and discos and shows etc)

- western quality amenities of malls, theaters, dining, hospitals etc

- foreign freehold ownership of condos

 

Could it take 10-20 years for any real competitor to emerge/develop and threaten Phuket?

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Could it take 10-20 years for any real competitor to emerge/develop and threaten Phuket?" - ahhhh, where do you think all the western tourists that Phuket has lost over the last 2 years are going????

 

In my opinion, Phuket's biggest competitor will come from Vietnam.  (tourist numbers up 26% - and I would suggest, that's tourist with money, not "zero baht" Chinese package holiday tourists)

 

I also notice Vietnam's budget airline, Vietjet, is gaining more and more international routes, and frequency of flights.

 

While Phuket refuses to change, their competition has been developing their tourism industry, rapidly.

 

This is the type of places being built, particularly in Vietnam, whilst Phuket still allows its same old scams and extortion, with higher prices for poorer service.

 

http://www.thegrandhotram.com/

 

By not moving forward, Phuket is actually slipping backwards. 

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