How are the occupancy rates doing?

[jamie obda]

I ask this question every three or four months, not as a troll post, but to get a more accurate measure of how things look from a locals point of view. I'm pretty sure TAT and AOT numbers are skewed and/or unreliable. I try to get a sense of things from PG, and mostly it seems like people bitching about beach chairs and swearing to never come back. I don't even read PW anymore as AM seems mad.

I like Phuket. I like it a lot. I usually come during the low season, but last year I came in December and it was noticeably more quiet. Although there were a fair amount of Russians and Midle Easterners. More often than not I stay in the Kata area, and spend some time with an old friend who lives in Chalong. So my question is, how are occupancy rates doing now (excepting the Lunar New Year) and how are future bookings?

Thanks in advance

[Peterocket]

A few stats for 2014 inclusive of the start of high season compliments of C9 Hotel works:

Market-wide occupancy tallied in at 69% in 2014 compared to 74% in the previous year.

Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013 as the Thai Baht depreciated 6% versus the US Dollar.

Martial Law produced a contraction in international and domestic passenger arrivals in June of -14%

Top geographic markets for year-on-year growth were Hong Kong SAR (+20%), U.K. (+17%), Japan (+9%), and Singapore at (+5%).

Substantial decreases were experienced for two European nations, namely the Netherlands (-58%) and Norway (-30%). On the regional front Taiwan (-56%), South Korea (-18%) and India (-17%) all experienced double digit declines

[Sharp]

A few stats for 2014 inclusive of the start of high season compliments of C9 Hotel works:

Market-wide occupancy tallied in at 69% in 2014 compared to 74% in the previous year.

Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013 as the Thai Baht depreciated 6% versus the US Dollar.

Martial Law produced a contraction in international and domestic passenger arrivals in June of -14%

Top geographic markets for year-on-year growth were Hong Kong SAR (+20%), U.K. (+17%), Japan (+9%), and Singapore at (+5%).

Substantial decreases were experienced for two European nations, namely the Netherlands (-58%) and Norway (-30%). On the regional front Taiwan (-56%), South Korea (-18%) and India (-17%) all experienced double digit declines.

Wow!! This must be the first time I actually believe the numbers... Congrats sir.....

[stevehaigh]

"Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013"

are you saying the avg rate per night is $146. that's amazing, i assumed it would be more like $30-$50, guess i'm just a cheap charley

[stevenl]

"Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013"

are you saying the avg rate per night is $146. that's amazing, i assumed it would be more like $30-$50, guess i'm just a cheap charley

I think this info stemms from reports from some of the better hotels.

[DrDave]

"Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013"

are you saying the avg rate per night is $146. that's amazing, i assumed it would be more like $30-$50, guess i'm just a cheap charley

Consider the source. C9 Hotelworks "Asset Management & Hospitality Consulting". e.g. High-end properties only.

[2fishin2]

I dont believe this survey either. $146 average room rate means the "normal" tourists rooms were not included as norm tourists pay from 1000-2000 baht a night and that top end for them. Also, I Dont understand the Thai baht depreciation comment of 6%?? If I compare exchange rates last year to today its exactly same. Either way im confused

[2fishin2]

Edit....after looking at the webpage, the survey quoted is an no way accurate for the average tourist and should not be used in reference for this post. This survey is HIGH END tourists only. Now where we....

[madmitch]

I dont believe this survey either. $146 average room rate means the "normal" tourists rooms were not included as norm tourists pay from 1000-2000 baht a night and that top end for them. Also, I Dont understand the Thai baht depreciation comment of 6%?? If I compare exchange rates last year to today its exactly same. Either way im confused

It's not a survey. C9 Hotelworks manage a number of generally high end properties and these figures will be based upon their experience.

Other similar reports from TAT and the THA are also based on properties formally registered with the organisations, again, top of the range.

Basically there's no way of knowing what the overall occupancy rates really are. Small establishments are not included in any of the above. I also wonder what is considered an occupied room, meaning that is a room deemed occupied if it's been paid for or if someone physically occupies the room. Tour groups can block-book a number of rooms and the hotel gets paid whether or not all the rooms are sold, hence the reason you see last-minute discounted packages.

Alasdair Forbes at the Phuket News attempted to get smaller places to register and report occupancy rates some time back in order to try to get a more realistic idea of overall occupancy rates but it was not a success, unsurprisingly.

[2fishin2]

Semantics....the "data" is high end only. As by their own admission, they are primarily a consulting firm. These figures are derived from high end hotels and tourists, not average hotels and people which, Im sure what the majority of tourists actually are. That being said, the figures used and quoted are NOT what the OP is looking for.

And yes there is absolutely no way to get accurate data on tourists figures in Thailand. A WAG is the only thing anybody will ever get.

[Pinot]

I was reading somewhere that the occupancy rates were 99% during this last week here in Phuket. That's of course wrong, probably supplied by TOT which always pulls these numbers from where the sun don't shine. I do know the big resorts were full. The Chinese were all over Jungceylon yesterday. The roads are packed, traffic terrible. My guess after living in Phuket for 5 years is that occupancy is maybe 70% when you include smaller hotels. It feels like it's as busy as it's ever been. Far fewer Russians, thank Buddha.

There was a significant lull after the New Year. It was unusually quiet, but it's back to where it should be. I wouldn't be surprised if it fell off again after the Chinese New Year.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Pinot

[ozyjon]

I usually stay in Hotels of 600 - 800 Baht usually 3 star,

i don't need any more, man i must be cheap.

[louse1953]

"Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013"

are you saying the avg rate per night is $146. that's amazing, i assumed it would be more like $30-$50, guess i'm just a cheap charley

I think this info stemms from reports from some of the better hotels.

Not better,more expensive.

[ToddinChonburi]

Now November of 2013 the baht was 29. to 1 US dollar now it is 32. so how is that 6% lower. looks like an increase to me and my bank account.

[pistachios]

Now November of 2013 the baht was 29. to 1 US dollar now it is 32. so how is that 6% lower. looks like an increase to me and my bank account.

One dollar gets you 3 more baths a year later... it should tell you that the baht is worth less dollars than before. That's the definition of depreciated in my book.

[LivinginKata]

Now November of 2013 the baht was 29. to 1 US dollar now it is 32. so how is that 6% lower. looks like an increase to me and my bank account.

One dollar gets you 3 more baths a year later... it should tell you that the baht is worth less dollars than before. That's the definition of depreciated in my book.

Depends on where the dollars come from, for example the AUD (Oz$) today gets you 24.8 Baht, last year is was more like 32+ baht, same with the Euro and GB Pound, well down in buying baht power. Much more visitors from Europe and Australia than from the US.

Oh - and the Russian Rouble is worth about half in Baht.

[mango66]

"Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013"

are you saying the avg rate per night is $146. that's amazing, i assumed it would be more like $30-$50, guess i'm just a cheap charley

No , not cheap,

he requested not to count chinese and chinese new year -

than room rates will be low to 10 - for rooms without toilett

and 20 for rooms with chinese toilett

147 is only for western tourists with more than 1 * star !!

occupancy 10 bht rooms - by chinese 100%

4* I would guess 50%

5- 6* about 65% ok, as reach people have no time and not realice when they are cheeted !!

[connda]

Acquaintances I know in Chiang Mai who own Guest Houses have no complaints this year. Sounds like business is brisk.

[Peterocket]

I dont believe this survey either. $146 average room rate means the "normal" tourists rooms were not included as norm tourists pay from 1000-2000 baht a night and that top end for them. Also, I Dont understand the Thai baht depreciation comment of 6%?? If I compare exchange rates last year to today its exactly same. Either way im confused

It's not a survey. C9 Hotelworks manage a number of generally high end properties and these figures will be based upon their experience.

Are you sure?

Is it not based on 750 licensed establishments within Phuket and Market-wide occupancy.

Is that not what the OP was requesting?

[keestha]

Acquaintances I know in Chiang Mai who own Guest Houses have no complaints this year. Sounds like business is brisk.

Sure there are always people around whose businesses are going just great. But no old hand who has his feet on the ground will deny tourism is down this year.

Example: to my experience snorkeling tours to the islands off Phangnga (Similan, Koh Ta Chai, Surin) were always bookable for the next day this season, previous seasons they were booked out often enough.

[2fishin2]

I dont believe this survey either. $146 average room rate means the "normal" tourists rooms were not included as norm tourists pay from 1000-2000 baht a night and that top end for them. Also, I Dont understand the Thai baht depreciation comment of 6%?? If I compare exchange rates last year to today its exactly same. Either way im confused

It's not a survey. C9 Hotelworks manage a number of generally high end properties and these figures will be based upon their experience.

Are you sure?

Is it not based on 750 licensed establishments within Phuket and Market-wide occupancy.

Is that not what the OP was requesting?

Your figures were based on HIGH END hotels only. Thats not what the OP asked. Cant compare Sheraton or Ritz Carlton figures to a 1500 baht night room hotel.

[steelepulse]

I'm in tourist areas pretty much every day and there seems to be a nice increase in European visitors, which is filling up many restaurants that were not full when it was mainly Russians, ie Buffalo Steakhouse, Two Chefs etc. It seems busier now then 3 weeks ago and that's not counting the Chinese, although I did see many Chinese plated cars driving around yesterday.

[keestha]

I'm in tourist areas pretty much every day and there seems to be a nice increase in European visitors, which is filling up many restaurants that were not full when it was mainly Russians, ie Buffalo Steakhouse, Two Chefs etc. It seems busier now then 3 weeks ago and that's not counting the Chinese, although I did see many Chinese plated cars driving around yesterday.

You mean just tour vehicles with Mandarin writing on them right, not cars with Chinese licence plates that have been driven down from China?

[steelepulse]

I'm in tourist areas pretty much every day and there seems to be a nice increase in European visitors, which is filling up many restaurants that were not full when it was mainly Russians, ie Buffalo Steakhouse, Two Chefs etc. It seems busier now then 3 weeks ago and that's not counting the Chinese, although I did see many Chinese plated cars driving around yesterday.

You mean just tour vehicles with Mandarin writing on them right, not cars with Chinese licence plates that have been driven down from China?

Many cars with blue plates and Chinese characters. Seems instead of flying for the lunar new year, they drove to Phuket. Some nice cars too, Audi, Mercedes, big SUV's etc.

Edited February 25, 2015 by steelepulse

[keestha]

Yeah, thanks, that's something new for me. Quite a long drive for them, would be at least something like driving from Denmark to the South of Italy.

[madmitch]

I'm in tourist areas pretty much every day and there seems to be a nice increase in European visitors, which is filling up many restaurants that were not full when it was mainly Russians, ie Buffalo Steakhouse, Two Chefs etc. It seems busier now then 3 weeks ago and that's not counting the Chinese, although I did see many Chinese plated cars driving around yesterday.

This has probably been the busiest two weeks of the season: Chinese New Year coinciding with half-term holidays in Europe. Flights out of Phuket to Bangkok have been full all week. I've had one family fly to Chiang Mai instead of Bangkok, another get the boat to Krabi to get a flight from there and others having to wait until the end of the week for an expensive flight to Bangkok..

However flight availability seems back to normal from next week, schools are back so what will happen?

[mickyboy]

"Consolidated average room rates achieved US$146 versus US$147 in 2013"

are you saying the avg rate per night is $146. that's amazing, i assumed it would be more like $30-$50, guess i'm just a cheap charley

yes its the average if your staying in 5* manderine oriental at say $250 a night or the d and d khoasan at $25 a night then the average is around $150 anight

[jamie obda]

I was hoping SteveNL would chime in, as he is always a great source of on the ground info.

Yet that being said, I look to try to cast a wide net when there is no reliable data - to an extent run a scatter chart and eliminate the outliers. True, one could get a fan room at the Lamplighter in soi paradise for the price of a set meal at Burger King in Jungceylon. And at the other end of the spectrum is a sky villa (cheapest) at Kata Rocks for US$900.

The US$ is about 6% up on the baht. I don't know why. Maybe are currencies are tanking and the Thai economy is actually quite strong.

Foolishly, my supposition was that TAT banked on the Russians and Chinese, which scoured out many of the europeans, and as the ruble tanked, vacancies rates would be higher. I suppose I should include the AUS$ in that mix. In a normal economy, hotel prices should drop.

Maybe a better question might be how far out do most hotels book in terms of price points? And when do the discounts arrive?

[stevenl]

I was hoping SteveNL would chime in, as he is always a great source of on the ground info.

Yet that being said, I look to try to cast a wide net when there is no reliable data - to an extent run a scatter chart and eliminate the outliers. True, one could get a fan room at the Lamplighter in soi paradise for the price of a set meal at Burger King in Jungceylon. And at the other end of the spectrum is a sky villa (cheapest) at Kata Rocks for US$900.

The US$ is about 6% up on the baht. I don't know why. Maybe are currencies are tanking and the Thai economy is actually quite strong.

Foolishly, my supposition was that TAT banked on the Russians and Chinese, which scoured out many of the europeans, and as the ruble tanked, vacancies rates would be higher. I suppose I should include the AUS$ in that mix. In a normal economy, hotel prices should drop.

Maybe a better question might be how far out do most hotels book in terms of price points? And when do the discounts arrive?

Ok, special request

I would guess about 50% less than 3 years ago, about 25% less than last year. The special weeks (X-mas and (Chinese) New Year have been busy, I think Chinese NY more so than last year, but for the rest, it is not good. The only places that seem to be doing well are some with many returning guests and the ones that are mainly catering to the Chinese market.

I do have the feeling, but it is no more than that, that March and April will be better with more Europeans coming again. My guess is that some of the hotels have offered special rates to the European agents.