Is this a condominium bargain……… or a sign of difficult times?

[Keesters]

The bubble will burst. Sooner rather than later. I know a few people that have got out or are trying to get out of the market. These scams .. Oops... schemes are an attempt to get as much now because no matter what the developers tell you they know what is going to happen. Massive drop. Uncompleted buildings.

Me, my house is my home worth 1 baht or 10 million. I'll live in it till I die. Value of it makes no difference to me.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Keesters

[georgegeorgia]

Yes stay away from those newer developments in Pratumnak and lesser extent Jomtien.

Although personally I still like the View Talay Condo...they are mostly holding their price...although if you are a investor seeking to get a rental return it now maybe more difficult.

I tend to like suburban type areas..I think the dark side will rise in price in the next few years..that area could be a goer...

As for guaranteed rental returns..I have my doubbts over those claims..the only time I have accepted that was from the Defence Forces who were selling their houses and renting on behalf of their staff.

On another I have a friend who took a potential tenant to look at his condo up near Mr Macs Hotel traffuc lights.

He has paid 3 million for this studio and took the tenant up there to a dark building...only 4 lights on ..vacant front Security/reception .the condo management cant sell the remaining so theres no building fees coming in to pay for staff.

Even if thise condo's went down in price to 1 million baht...still not a good investment

Edited March 12, 2015 by georgegeorgia

[Asiantravel]

My wife deals with quite a few very savey Thai property owners ,and to be honest they know exactly where to buy and they make a lot of money ,she also gets a load of people who think they can get rich quick in the condo market ,they dont ,if you know your way around ,its a good market here in Pattaya ,unfortunatley 90% of the buyers and renters dont.

You may remember we discussed the strength or otherwise of the property market as related to Korean and Chinese buyers in a different thread a few months ago. I even mentioned a brand-new condominium building near big C extra which I am sure you said your wife had shown to prospective tenants.

My neighbour ( who has also started working in real estate ) even told me many of those condominiums had been sold to Koreans. I was highly sceptical.

But one thing is indisputable. At night there is not a single light on in the entire building. How many Korean investors would be happy with that situation and that location is considerably more convenient than Jomtien.

[samsensam]

this has served me well over the years: if something sounds too good to be true it probably is.

[Nbarch]

A good friend of mine in the UK bought into a similar deal, with the same sort 'buy back' of guarantees, in Cyprus many years ago. A few years after he purchased the property and wanted to sell he learnt that the original developers had quietly sold the company to another company for a nominal amount.

And the new company was under no legal obligation to honour the original buy-back arrangement.

(How would this work under Thai law?)

Caveat Emptor!

[Asiantravel]

A good friend of mine in the UK bought into a similar deal, with the same sort 'buy back' of guarantees, in Cyprus many years ago. A few years after he purchased the property and wanted to sell he learnt that the original developers had quietly sold the company to another company for a nominal amount.

And the new company was under no legal obligation to honour the original buy-back arrangement.

(How would this work under Thai law?)

Caveat Emptor!

interesting. And I just found this article from July last year. Maybe this is where pattaya developers got their idea that this would be attractive with Chinese

China Developers Offering Home Buybacks in Weakest Markets

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Property developers in two of China’s weakest housing markets are offering to buy back homes above the purchase price to boost sales as demand slows.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-07-01/china-developers-offer-buyback-guarantee-in-weakest-home-markets

[Asiantravel]

and here is another article that indicates this has also been done in India

Buyback schemes are similar to assured return offers. Developers assure buyers that they will repurchase the property at a 30-35% higher price, within a stipulated time, generally 18-36 months from the completion of
the project.

But when you read the paragraph entitled RISKS INVOLVED, the first item on the list is “ No regulator for real estate ” which certainly applies to the property market in Thailand.

http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/developers-offer-buyback-schemes-tread-with-caution/1/204809.html

[Asiantravel]

okay That's it!!

When it finally becomes impossible for central banks worldwide to hide the fact that we have entered an inescapable deflationary era, I predict this gimmick is going to turn into a disaster of epic proportion

[does]

Dear n210mp (Senior Member),

Sorry if I offended you. I just found your answer a bit over the top, but it seems I owe you an explanation.

You write:

"...before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building."

Reading this I wondered how you can be so certain of the "inevitable crash"? Why couldn't it become a soft landing? How can you predict that Pattaya becomes a "wasteland"? What makes you say that Pattaya is slowly dying? Do you have stats to back that up? Do you mean Pattaya will go the way of Detroit?

You also write:

"Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts." Which "dark side" are you referring to? What is the problem with geriatric residents in Pattaya? The city has thousands of Westerners enjoying their retirement years, many of them spending much less than they would in the EU or the US.

Yes, Pattaya is overbuild, with condo’s and shophouses. Many Russians are forced out of the condo market due to the collapse of the rubble. That's driving condo prices down. Overbuilding? Sure, but isn't that driven by money going into real estate because banks don't give you any returns.

Back on the topic of the original OP: you responded from the viewpoint of a professional investor or real estate broken. I responded with what I think was common sense advice; if the OP wanted to buy a condo in Pattaya as a place of residence, (i.e. if he is not a flipper), go right ahead. If buying a one million baht condo could force you into banrupcy, perhaps you have no business buying a condo. The OP should perhaps have been a bit more specific - why does he want to buy, how does he want to buy/pay, how old is he, etc. Agreed?

This senior member knows a lot more about real estate than I do, but I do find his sweeping generalizations and his tone ("I am totally right and can look into the future") a bit offensive.

1. If you like living in Pattaya and want to buy a condo, you can find a decent place for a million baht. If you don't plan to "flip" it but just want to live out your years here, by all means, buy it. There are not many beach-side cities in the world when you can buy a condo for that kind of money.

2. If you live in the EU or the US, and if (as the Senior Member predicts) the western economies crash, it's not bad to have a roof over your head in Thailand, where you can live an a very low budget if needed. If we get a global depression, I'd rather be in Pattaya than in, say, Paris.

3. It could very wel be that property and land prices in Pattaya will decline in the future, but that could happen anywhere. Anyone who has lived in or frequently visited Pattaya in the past ten years will know that traffic is getting worse every year. Not exactly a sign of a city in decline.

I remember getting into a nasty debate with "Dirty Dog" of Teak door forum. ( I think that at that time he owned the forum and didn't we posters know it)

Some time ago about 4/5 years ago I had the audacity to say on that forum, that with the Western world economies floundering the price of Pattaya land would ether remain stable, depreciate or collapse completely

The reason I felt that it would remain stable without any real increase in value was because of the hold, those with the money power and investment in the area would not allow any serious depreciation of Pattaya land values just by simply holding onto their investment because they were exceedingly rich, please read over capitalised, and unaffected by possibly short term fluctuations in the land values .

This is in effect IMHO is a right and proper way of maintaining any investment as long as one's main capital is unaffected and business can be continued semi normally .

I say semi normally because Pattaya has always been the odd one out, the sex capital of the world and once the place where thousands of men (and some women) from all over the world came to satiate their sexual desires because it was cheap, cheerful and the ladies were the most beautiful, of course the Yanks had led the way into making this place the most promiscuous place on Earth but that is another story

in other words the big boys are waiting for the market to return, hopefully before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building.

Unfortunately this has not happened and here we are some five years later still not really understanding just what is going on in Pattaya or like DD of the Teak door forum having so much invested in Pattaya that He could not face up to the fact that Pattaya is slowly dying a death.

For those with tooooooo much investment in Pattaya unable to face up to the reality that I see in the place on a daily basis just look at the numbers of tourists from the more wealthy parts of the world who are simply not coming here anymore to marry into the culture and become the lifeblood of Pattaya by eventually becoming in the scheme of things local "wealthy"residential ExPats.

Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts like Costas and I

The only younger semi ExPats are the offshore workers who make up the clientele of the bars, cafes.

I can only think that the powers that be are closing their eyes and ears to what is going on in the world at large.

The only tourist of plenty I see are the Chinese and the Arabs widely know for their inability to part with any real cash money!

I was in discussion with a like minded friend the other day who used the argument that the Thais were getting ready for the mass immigration to Pattaya and to Thailand when the barriers finally come down with the opening of the borders and boundaries to the Assian Community.

in that the building that seems to be completely out of sync or sensible control with the demand at this moment in time will be justified when the masses arrive.

In other words the writing is on the wall for me at any rate and there will be at this moment in time some properties where the builders, owners ,may be in dire circumstances and possibly taking a big cut in asking prices for their properties.

To summarise and go to the reason for the OP

If I were a customer for a condo or indeed any property in Pattaya I would be waiting a year or so to see what the effect of the opening of the borders has on the value of properties in this area and possibly taking advantage of the reduction in rentals that is now becoming more apparent especially since the void left by the Russians has left many properties in the jomtien area with a question mark over them as well as many properties that have been vacated by them

Please try and I know its hard at times not to personalise a posters point of view as being somehow "not allowed, not PC, offensive or simply wrong"

My point of view ,

whatever you think of me personally is my point of view and I think that I posted it without any malice or rancour, maybe you could give me a little respect by allowing me to have my point of view, maybe at the same time you could say what bit from my post you particularly thought was offensive?

Your point of view as stated in your post gives me an idea of where the differences are between us but I will not diminish you or your posts by resorting to personal comments bringing you into any disrepute with others who may not know or have not met you.

On your post I will say this though;

If you are going to rely on income generated from saving or investments from abroad to live in your house in pattaya I think I can safely say that you are in for a shock and can expect to live at the lowest common denominator, maybe not now but when the knot begins to tighten ....well!

However if you have been over here many years and you have invested wisely and have maybe Thai income from your Thai business than I feel that you may fare well.

Oh and just one final thing if you find my "generalisations" offensive then stay around because you have a lot of skin to add to your rather thin skinned back.

I am pretty tame when it come to offending people just stick around kiddo you aint seen nothin yet from some of the posters on here!

My generalisations incidentally come from a lifetime within the property business and watching trend, recession and so called upturns, what are your qualifications if your are questioning mine?

And please notice that not once in my reply to your post was I offensive to you personally.

[i claudius]

My wife deals with quite a few very savey Thai property owners ,and to be honest they know exactly where to buy and they make a lot of money ,she also gets a load of people who think they can get rich quick in the condo market ,they dont ,if you know your way around ,its a good market here in Pattaya ,unfortunatley 90% of the buyers and renters dont.

You may remember we discussed the strength or otherwise of the property market as related to Korean and Chinese buyers in a different thread a few months ago. I even mentioned a brand-new condominium building near big C extra which I am sure you said your wife had shown to prospective tenants.

My neighbour ( who has also started working in real estate ) even told me many of those condominiums had been sold to Koreans. I was highly sceptical.

But one thing is indisputable. At night there is not a single light on in the entire building. How many Korean investors would be happy with that situation and that location is considerably more convenient than Jomtien.

I remember to be honest I personally think they are overpriced and the rents wanted for them very high ,but some people seem to like them the ones I have seen are nice ,but at what a price

[i claudius]

Also many of them were bought as investments,to rent out,one of her Thai clients has three!! And quite a few so I was told are just weekend places,.but as I said compared with many nice places she has for rent I feel they are a bit on the high side

Edited March 12, 2015 by i claudius

[Asiantravel]

Also many of them were bought as investments,to rent out,one of her Thai clients has three!! And quite a few so I was told are just weekend places,.but as I said compared with many nice places she has for rent I feel they are a bit on the high side

But that was my point. The developer said to my neighbour most of them had been sold to Koreans or Chinese to be rented out but the fact that the place is totally in the dark at night suggests there are no tenants ?

And if they were sold with rental guarantees I wonder what representations were made regarding achievable rents before the contracts were signed? It would be highly embarrassing to the developers if they now discover the real rental value is in fact nowhere near the original expectations. (Because economic conditions have changed considerably since then in many ways)

So they wouldn't be able to slash the asking rents even if they wanted to?

Edited March 12, 2015 by Asiantravel

[Asiantravel]

Dear n210mp (Senior Member),

Sorry if I offended you. I just found your answer a bit over the top, but it seems I owe you an explanation.

You write:

"...before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building."

Reading this I wondered how you can be so certain of the "inevitable crash"? Why couldn't it become a soft landing? How can you predict that Pattaya becomes a "wasteland"? What makes you say that Pattaya is slowly dying? Do you have stats to back that up? Do you mean Pattaya will go the way of Detroit?

You also write:

"Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts." Which "dark side" are you referring to? What is the problem with geriatric residents in Pattaya? The city has thousands of Westerners enjoying their retirement years, many of them spending much less than they would in the EU or the US.

Yes, Pattaya is overbuild, with condo’s and shophouses. Many Russians are forced out of the condo market due to the collapse of the rubble. That's driving condo prices down. Overbuilding? Sure, but isn't that driven by money going into real estate because banks don't give you any returns.

Back on the topic of the original OP: you responded from the viewpoint of a professional investor or real estate broken. I responded with what I think was common sense advice; if the OP wanted to buy a condo in Pattaya as a place of residence, (i.e. if he is not a flipper), go right ahead. If buying a one million baht condo could force you into banrupcy, perhaps you have no business buying a condo. The OP should perhaps have been a bit more specific - why does he want to buy, how does he want to buy/pay, how old is he, etc. Agreed?

This senior member knows a lot more about real estate than I do, but I do find his sweeping generalizations and his tone ("I am totally right and can look into the future") a bit offensive.

1. If you like living in Pattaya and want to buy a condo, you can find a decent place for a million baht. If you don't plan to "flip" it but just want to live out your years here, by all means, buy it. There are not many beach-side cities in the world when you can buy a condo for that kind of money.

2. If you live in the EU or the US, and if (as the Senior Member predicts) the western economies crash, it's not bad to have a roof over your head in Thailand, where you can live an a very low budget if needed. If we get a global depression, I'd rather be in Pattaya than in, say, Paris.

3. It could very wel be that property and land prices in Pattaya will decline in the future, but that could happen anywhere. Anyone who has lived in or frequently visited Pattaya in the past ten years will know that traffic is getting worse every year. Not exactly a sign of a city in decline.

I remember getting into a nasty debate with "Dirty Dog" of Teak door forum. ( I think that at that time he owned the forum and didn't we posters know it)

Some time ago about 4/5 years ago I had the audacity to say on that forum, that with the Western world economies floundering the price of Pattaya land would ether remain stable, depreciate or collapse completely

The reason I felt that it would remain stable without any real increase in value was because of the hold, those with the money power and investment in the area would not allow any serious depreciation of Pattaya land values just by simply holding onto their investment because they were exceedingly rich, please read over capitalised, and unaffected by possibly short term fluctuations in the land values .

This is in effect IMHO is a right and proper way of maintaining any investment as long as one's main capital is unaffected and business can be continued semi normally .

I say semi normally because Pattaya has always been the odd one out, the sex capital of the world and once the place where thousands of men (and some women) from all over the world came to satiate their sexual desires because it was cheap, cheerful and the ladies were the most beautiful, of course the Yanks had led the way into making this place the most promiscuous place on Earth but that is another story

in other words the big boys are waiting for the market to return, hopefully before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building.

Unfortunately this has not happened and here we are some five years later still not really understanding just what is going on in Pattaya or like DD of the Teak door forum having so much invested in Pattaya that He could not face up to the fact that Pattaya is slowly dying a death.

For those with tooooooo much investment in Pattaya unable to face up to the reality that I see in the place on a daily basis just look at the numbers of tourists from the more wealthy parts of the world who are simply not coming here anymore to marry into the culture and become the lifeblood of Pattaya by eventually becoming in the scheme of things local "wealthy"residential ExPats.

Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts like Costas and I

The only younger semi ExPats are the offshore workers who make up the clientele of the bars, cafes.

I can only think that the powers that be are closing their eyes and ears to what is going on in the world at large.

The only tourist of plenty I see are the Chinese and the Arabs widely know for their inability to part with any real cash money!

I was in discussion with a like minded friend the other day who used the argument that the Thais were getting ready for the mass immigration to Pattaya and to Thailand when the barriers finally come down with the opening of the borders and boundaries to the Assian Community.

in that the building that seems to be completely out of sync or sensible control with the demand at this moment in time will be justified when the masses arrive.

In other words the writing is on the wall for me at any rate and there will be at this moment in time some properties where the builders, owners ,may be in dire circumstances and possibly taking a big cut in asking prices for their properties.

To summarise and go to the reason for the OP

If I were a customer for a condo or indeed any property in Pattaya I would be waiting a year or so to see what the effect of the opening of the borders has on the value of properties in this area and possibly taking advantage of the reduction in rentals that is now becoming more apparent especially since the void left by the Russians has left many properties in the jomtien area with a question mark over them as well as many properties that have been vacated by them

Please try and I know its hard at times not to personalise a posters point of view as being somehow "not allowed, not PC, offensive or simply wrong"

My point of view ,

whatever you think of me personally is my point of view and I think that I posted it without any malice or rancour, maybe you could give me a little respect by allowing me to have my point of view, maybe at the same time you could say what bit from my post you particularly thought was offensive?

Your point of view as stated in your post gives me an idea of where the differences are between us but I will not diminish you or your posts by resorting to personal comments bringing you into any disrepute with others who may not know or have not met you.

On your post I will say this though;

If you are going to rely on income generated from saving or investments from abroad to live in your house in pattaya I think I can safely say that you are in for a shock and can expect to live at the lowest common denominator, maybe not now but when the knot begins to tighten ....well!

However if you have been over here many years and you have invested wisely and have maybe Thai income from your Thai business than I feel that you may fare well.

Oh and just one final thing if you find my "generalisations" offensive then stay around because you have a lot of skin to add to your rather thin skinned back.

I am pretty tame when it come to offending people just stick around kiddo you aint seen nothin yet from some of the posters on here!

My generalisations incidentally come from a lifetime within the property business and watching trend, recession and so called upturns, what are your qualifications if your are questioning mine?

And please notice that not once in my reply to your post was I offensive to you personally.

does

I have no interest whatsoever in buying because I regard the whole Pattaya real estate market as an intransparent sham and these real estate guys know exactly what's coming.

if you reread my original post you will see I made no insinuation I was an interested buyer? I was merely asking TV members why they thought developers were engaging in this kind of thing. Now that I see it is being applied even in other countries I'm even more convinced than ever it's a sign of desperation.

And when you write " Reading this I wondered how you can be so certain of the "inevitable crash"? Why couldn't it becom e a soft landing? "As to whether it will be a crash or not is irrelevant. I predict it will be very similar to what happened to Japan in 1990 which wasn't a crash as such but it still meant once prices gradually went down they didn't recover for decades.

Even more worrying this time though compared to 1990 is that the entire world now is swimming in an ocean of debt simultaneously.I would bet it's going to be much worse this time.

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/

Edited March 12, 2015 by Asiantravel

[Mr Wonderful]

Sansiri offers two year rental guarantee last year on one of their resort developments. They actually rebate 12 percent against the selling price on closing. So can't lose.

But what I saw today 5 year 10 percent rental guarantee... That's not gonna be fun from an unknown developer. Now. If Central offered it. Or movenpick perhaps. That's a different story. Everything else assume to be a sham.

[Mr Wonderful]

I wouldn't say that necessarily condo investment is a bad deal. You have to buy right and treat tenants well furnish nicely and take care of problems.

Infinat we how one can invest in a single unit and try to rent it for 10k a month. Waste of time really.

The best returns are typically off plan. So that's not an option except from reputable establaihed companies.

[puukao]

Now they must be paid in bitcoins!!!!

seems legit. Don't they care about me and my money???

[n210mp]

Dear n210mp (Senior Member),

Sorry if I offended you. I just found your answer a bit over the top, but it seems I owe you an explanation.

You write:

"...before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building."

Reading this I wondered how you can be so certain of the "inevitable crash"? Why couldn't it become a soft landing? How can you predict that Pattaya becomes a "wasteland"? What makes you say that Pattaya is slowly dying? Do you have stats to back that up? Do you mean Pattaya will go the way of Detroit?

You also write:

"Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts." Which "dark side" are you referring to? What is the problem with geriatric residents in Pattaya? The city has thousands of Westerners enjoying their retirement years, many of them spending much less than they would in the EU or the US.

Yes, Pattaya is overbuild, with condo’s and shophouses. Many Russians are forced out of the condo market due to the collapse of the rubble. That's driving condo prices down. Overbuilding? Sure, but isn't that driven by money going into real estate because banks don't give you any returns.

Back on the topic of the original OP: you responded from the viewpoint of a professional investor or real estate broken. I responded with what I think was common sense advice; if the OP wanted to buy a condo in Pattaya as a place of residence, (i.e. if he is not a flipper), go right ahead. If buying a one million baht condo could force you into banrupcy, perhaps you have no business buying a condo. The OP should perhaps have been a bit more specific - why does he want to buy, how does he want to buy/pay, how old is he, etc. Agreed?

This senior member knows a lot more about real estate than I do, but I do find his sweeping generalizations and his tone ("I am totally right and can look into the future") a bit offensive.

1. If you like living in Pattaya and want to buy a condo, you can find a decent place for a million baht. If you don't plan to "flip" it but just want to live out your years here, by all means, buy it. There are not many beach-side cities in the world when you can buy a condo for that kind of money.

2. If you live in the EU or the US, and if (as the Senior Member predicts) the western economies crash, it's not bad to have a roof over your head in Thailand, where you can live an a very low budget if needed. If we get a global depression, I'd rather be in Pattaya than in, say, Paris.

3. It could very wel be that property and land prices in Pattaya will decline in the future, but that could happen anywhere. Anyone who has lived in or frequently visited Pattaya in the past ten years will know that traffic is getting worse every year. Not exactly a sign of a city in decline.

I remember getting into a nasty debate with "Dirty Dog" of Teak door forum. ( I think that at that time he owned the forum and didn't we posters know it)

Some time ago about 4/5 years ago I had the audacity to say on that forum, that with the Western world economies floundering the price of Pattaya land would ether remain stable, depreciate or collapse completely

The reason I felt that it would remain stable without any real increase in value was because of the hold, those with the money power and investment in the area would not allow any serious depreciation of Pattaya land values just by simply holding onto their investment because they were exceedingly rich, please read over capitalised, and unaffected by possibly short term fluctuations in the land values .

This is in effect IMHO is a right and proper way of maintaining any investment as long as one's main capital is unaffected and business can be continued semi normally .

I say semi normally because Pattaya has always been the odd one out, the sex capital of the world and once the place where thousands of men (and some women) from all over the world came to satiate their sexual desires because it was cheap, cheerful and the ladies were the most beautiful, of course the Yanks had led the way into making this place the most promiscuous place on Earth but that is another story

in other words the big boys are waiting for the market to return, hopefully before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building.

Unfortunately this has not happened and here we are some five years later still not really understanding just what is going on in Pattaya or like DD of the Teak door forum having so much invested in Pattaya that He could not face up to the fact that Pattaya is slowly dying a death.

For those with tooooooo much investment in Pattaya unable to face up to the reality that I see in the place on a daily basis just look at the numbers of tourists from the more wealthy parts of the world who are simply not coming here anymore to marry into the culture and become the lifeblood of Pattaya by eventually becoming in the scheme of things local "wealthy"residential ExPats.

Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts like Costas and I

The only younger semi ExPats are the offshore workers who make up the clientele of the bars, cafes.

I can only think that the powers that be are closing their eyes and ears to what is going on in the world at large.

The only tourist of plenty I see are the Chinese and the Arabs widely know for their inability to part with any real cash money!

I was in discussion with a like minded friend the other day who used the argument that the Thais were getting ready for the mass immigration to Pattaya and to Thailand when the barriers finally come down with the opening of the borders and boundaries to the Assian Community.

in that the building that seems to be completely out of sync or sensible control with the demand at this moment in time will be justified when the masses arrive.

In other words the writing is on the wall for me at any rate and there will be at this moment in time some properties where the builders, owners ,may be in dire circumstances and possibly taking a big cut in asking prices for their properties.

To summarise and go to the reason for the OP

If I were a customer for a condo or indeed any property in Pattaya I would be waiting a year or so to see what the effect of the opening of the borders has on the value of properties in this area and possibly taking advantage of the reduction in rentals that is now becoming more apparent especially since the void left by the Russians has left many properties in the jomtien area with a question mark over them as well as many properties that have been vacated by them

Please try and I know its hard at times not to personalise a posters point of view as being somehow "not allowed, not PC, offensive or simply wrong"

My point of view ,

whatever you think of me personally is my point of view and I think that I posted it without any malice or rancour, maybe you could give me a little respect by allowing me to have my point of view, maybe at the same time you could say what bit from my post you particularly thought was offensive?

Your point of view as stated in your post gives me an idea of where the differences are between us but I will not diminish you or your posts by resorting to personal comments bringing you into any disrepute with others who may not know or have not met you.

On your post I will say this though;

If you are going to rely on income generated from saving or investments from abroad to live in your house in pattaya I think I can safely say that you are in for a shock and can expect to live at the lowest common denominator, maybe not now but when the knot begins to tighten ....well!

However if you have been over here many years and you have invested wisely and have maybe Thai income from your Thai business than I feel that you may fare well.

Oh and just one final thing if you find my "generalisations" offensive then stay around because you have a lot of skin to add to your rather thin skinned back.

I am pretty tame when it come to offending people just stick around kiddo you aint seen nothin yet from some of the posters on here!

My generalisations incidentally come from a lifetime within the property business and watching trend, recession and so called upturns, what are your qualifications if your are questioning mine?

And please notice that not once in my reply to your post was I offensive to you personally.

Hello Does

Thanks for the apology.

It really does nobody any good at all to get too personal unless of course Like some of the guys on here who thrive on that sort of thing you get your kicks that way.

I am sure that you dont!

As for the points that you are trying to debate with me I think that I can safely say that there; "birds of every kind and men of different minds" and on the matter of trying to fathom the unfathomable I have my point of view and you have yours.

I reluctantly do not see any bright future for Thailand at all with the tale of woe in the Country especially with world wide depression stoking the problems up even more but that is another story.

Apart from the many "experts" who are soothsaying gloom and doom not only for the USA but for all those economies linked with the USA $,

I also after being in business all my life have an uneasy feeling that the next depression , recession will be world wide and worse than anything that I have ever experienced n my 70 years.

The continuing decrease in the value of the GPB exacerbates my ill ease.

I am sure that posters on here with considerable investments both of a personal and financial nature in Thailand dont like to hear my words.

At my age I havnt a lot to be concerned about but if I could persuade some young fellow that investment in Jomtien or Pratamnak hill condos is a bad thing at this moment in time I will have done my good deed for the day.

I feel that most who are posting on this subject will not be Mega corporations looking to buy masses of land for future development because that would colour my opinion in another direction

Regards Harvey

[n210mp]

Dear n210mp (Senior Member),

Sorry if I offended you. I just found your answer a bit over the top, but it seems I owe you an explanation.

You write:

"...before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building."

Reading this I wondered how you can be so certain of the "inevitable crash"? Why couldn't it become a soft landing? How can you predict that Pattaya becomes a "wasteland"? What makes you say that Pattaya is slowly dying? Do you have stats to back that up? Do you mean Pattaya will go the way of Detroit?

You also write:

"Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts." Which "dark side" are you referring to? What is the problem with geriatric residents in Pattaya? The city has thousands of Westerners enjoying their retirement years, many of them spending much less than they would in the EU or the US.

Yes, Pattaya is overbuild, with condo’s and shophouses. Many Russians are forced out of the condo market due to the collapse of the rubble. That's driving condo prices down. Overbuilding? Sure, but isn't that driven by money going into real estate because banks don't give you any returns.

Back on the topic of the original OP: you responded from the viewpoint of a professional investor or real estate broken. I responded with what I think was common sense advice; if the OP wanted to buy a condo in Pattaya as a place of residence, (i.e. if he is not a flipper), go right ahead. If buying a one million baht condo could force you into banrupcy, perhaps you have no business buying a condo. The OP should perhaps have been a bit more specific - why does he want to buy, how does he want to buy/pay, how old is he, etc. Agreed?

This senior member knows a lot more about real estate than I do, but I do find his sweeping generalizations and his tone ("I am totally right and can look into the future") a bit offensive.

1. If you like living in Pattaya and want to buy a condo, you can find a decent place for a million baht. If you don't plan to "flip" it but just want to live out your years here, by all means, buy it. There are not many beach-side cities in the world when you can buy a condo for that kind of money.

2. If you live in the EU or the US, and if (as the Senior Member predicts) the western economies crash, it's not bad to have a roof over your head in Thailand, where you can live an a very low budget if needed. If we get a global depression, I'd rather be in Pattaya than in, say, Paris.

3. It could very wel be that property and land prices in Pattaya will decline in the future, but that could happen anywhere. Anyone who has lived in or frequently visited Pattaya in the past ten years will know that traffic is getting worse every year. Not exactly a sign of a city in decline.

I remember getting into a nasty debate with "Dirty Dog" of Teak door forum. ( I think that at that time he owned the forum and didn't we posters know it)

Some time ago about 4/5 years ago I had the audacity to say on that forum, that with the Western world economies floundering the price of Pattaya land would ether remain stable, depreciate or collapse completely

The reason I felt that it would remain stable without any real increase in value was because of the hold, those with the money power and investment in the area would not allow any serious depreciation of Pattaya land values just by simply holding onto their investment because they were exceedingly rich, please read over capitalised, and unaffected by possibly short term fluctuations in the land values .

This is in effect IMHO is a right and proper way of maintaining any investment as long as one's main capital is unaffected and business can be continued semi normally .

I say semi normally because Pattaya has always been the odd one out, the sex capital of the world and once the place where thousands of men (and some women) from all over the world came to satiate their sexual desires because it was cheap, cheerful and the ladies were the most beautiful, of course the Yanks had led the way into making this place the most promiscuous place on Earth but that is another story

in other words the big boys are waiting for the market to return, hopefully before the inevitable crash that comes when the world economies do not recover in time and Pattaya becomes a wasteland of half built and empty building.

Unfortunately this has not happened and here we are some five years later still not really understanding just what is going on in Pattaya or like DD of the Teak door forum having so much invested in Pattaya that He could not face up to the fact that Pattaya is slowly dying a death.

For those with tooooooo much investment in Pattaya unable to face up to the reality that I see in the place on a daily basis just look at the numbers of tourists from the more wealthy parts of the world who are simply not coming here anymore to marry into the culture and become the lifeblood of Pattaya by eventually becoming in the scheme of things local "wealthy"residential ExPats.

Go out in the dark side and see many geriatric and older old farts like Costas and I

The only younger semi ExPats are the offshore workers who make up the clientele of the bars, cafes.

I can only think that the powers that be are closing their eyes and ears to what is going on in the world at large.

The only tourist of plenty I see are the Chinese and the Arabs widely know for their inability to part with any real cash money!

I was in discussion with a like minded friend the other day who used the argument that the Thais were getting ready for the mass immigration to Pattaya and to Thailand when the barriers finally come down with the opening of the borders and boundaries to the Assian Community.

in that the building that seems to be completely out of sync or sensible control with the demand at this moment in time will be justified when the masses arrive.

In other words the writing is on the wall for me at any rate and there will be at this moment in time some properties where the builders, owners ,may be in dire circumstances and possibly taking a big cut in asking prices for their properties.

To summarise and go to the reason for the OP

If I were a customer for a condo or indeed any property in Pattaya I would be waiting a year or so to see what the effect of the opening of the borders has on the value of properties in this area and possibly taking advantage of the reduction in rentals that is now becoming more apparent especially since the void left by the Russians has left many properties in the jomtien area with a question mark over them as well as many properties that have been vacated by them

Please try and I know its hard at times not to personalise a posters point of view as being somehow "not allowed, not PC, offensive or simply wrong"

My point of view ,

whatever you think of me personally is my point of view and I think that I posted it without any malice or rancour, maybe you could give me a little respect by allowing me to have my point of view, maybe at the same time you could say what bit from my post you particularly thought was offensive?

Your point of view as stated in your post gives me an idea of where the differences are between us but I will not diminish you or your posts by resorting to personal comments bringing you into any disrepute with others who may not know or have not met you.

On your post I will say this though;

If you are going to rely on income generated from saving or investments from abroad to live in your house in pattaya I think I can safely say that you are in for a shock and can expect to live at the lowest common denominator, maybe not now but when the knot begins to tighten ....well!

However if you have been over here many years and you have invested wisely and have maybe Thai income from your Thai business than I feel that you may fare well.

Oh and just one final thing if you find my "generalisations" offensive then stay around because you have a lot of skin to add to your rather thin skinned back.

I am pretty tame when it come to offending people just stick around kiddo you aint seen nothin yet from some of the posters on here!

My generalisations incidentally come from a lifetime within the property business and watching trend, recession and so called upturns, what are your qualifications if your are questioning mine?

And please notice that not once in my reply to your post was I offensive to you personally.

does

I have no interest whatsoever in buying because I regard the whole Pattaya real estate market as an intransparent sham and these real estate guys know exactly what's coming.

if you reread my original post you will see I made no insinuation I was an interested buyer? I was merely asking TV members why they thought developers were engaging in this kind of thing. Now that I see it is being applied even in other countries I'm even more convinced than ever it's a sign of desperation.

And when you write " Reading this I wondered how you can be so certain of the "inevitable crash"? Why couldn't it becom e a soft landing? "As to whether it will be a crash or not is irrelevant. I predict it will be very similar to what happened to Japan in 1990 which wasn't a crash as such but it still meant once prices gradually went down they didn't recover for decades.

Even more worrying this time though compared to 1990 is that the entire world now is swimming in an ocean of debt simultaneously.I would bet it's going to be much worse this time.

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/

""The entire world is swimming in an ocean of debt"

Who does the entire world owe?

Have you ever heard of the "Theory of Chaos"?

This is becoming more salient and credible as I get older.

Even partial understanding of the concept would automatically trigger an answer for your very sensible question

[Rimmer]

A flame has been removed also a post with hopelessly messed up quotes

[ggt]

Developers have been know to change their minds, go bankrupt, and totally disregard their contractual obligations...

If it sounds too good to be true...it probably is...

[Asiantravel]

does

I have no interest whatsoever in buying because I regard the whole Pattaya real estate market as an intransparent sham and these real estate guys know exactly what's coming.

if you reread my original post you will see I made no insinuation I was an interested buyer? I was merely asking TV members why they thought developers were engaging in this kind of thing. Now that I see it is being applied even in other countries I'm even more convinced than ever it's a sign of desperation.

And when you write " Reading this I wondered how you can be so certain of the "inevitable crash"? Why couldn't it becom e a soft landing? "As to whether it will be a crash or not is irrelevant. I predict it will be very similar to what happened to Japan in 1990 which wasn't a crash as such but it still meant once prices gradually went down they didn't recover for decades.

Even more worrying this time though compared to 1990 is that the entire world now is swimming in an ocean of debt simultaneously.I would bet it's going to be much worse this time.

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/

""The entire world is swimming in an ocean of debt"

Who does the entire world owe?

Have you ever heard of the "Theory of Chaos"?

This is becoming more salient and credible as I get older.

Even partial understanding of the concept would automatically trigger an answer for your very sensible question

[does]

Hi AseanTravel,

Your original post fooled me, in that I assumed you were considering buying property in Pattaya. I quote two segments from your initial post that led me to that conclusion:

1 - "But I also wonder what are the risks to the buyer?"

2 - "I’m just wondering if any TV members here have been presented with this opportunity and whether they think it’s a good idea or not?"

Especially number 2 made me think you were "in the market" for a condo.

I now understand that the topic you raised was about scams. Pattaya has lots of scammers and scams have been around for ages - remember the time-sharing scams?

The crash you have referred to in Japan was more of a blowup of a bubble - remember that Tokyo real estate was worth more than the entire US?

I agree the world is swimming in an ocean of debt and that there are reasons to be worried. But this tread seems to conflate two issues - global economics and real estate scammers.

I think we mostly agree but come from different vantage points. The advice I give to my friends: if you are worried about a global crash, (say a Great Depression-like event), and have the means to do so, buy a condo for a million baht in Pattaya (or elsewhere in Thailand) so you have a cheap place to ride out the storm.

Conversely, if you have money to flip condos and already have a roof over your head and other safe assets, you probably don't have to worry too much if we get a crash.

[does]

Hello Harvey,

Like me, I think you assumed AsianTravel was considering buying property in Pattaya. As you initially wrote:

"To summarise and go to the reason for the OP ... If I were a customer for a condo...".

My initial response to your comment was triggered by a few phrases that looked to me like judgmental (geriatric and old farts; and Chinese and Arabs not able to part with real money), and the certainty you conveyed in your expectations about the Pattaya market. But I realize not harm was meant on your part.

I think timing and personal circumstances are key to buying real estate. An acquaintance of mine bought about 3/4 rai of land some eight years ago for 2.8 million baht. He's recently been offered 15 million baht. It's possible the same plot will be worth a fraction of that in a few years, but nobody can say for sure.

As I wrote to AsianTravel, buying a condo in Thailand for a million baht can be a safe investment if you plan to use it when things get real bad. And I agree with you that things look bleak from a global economic vantage point, especially the position of the US$.

As to people (over)invested in Thai real estate, they should be smart enough to have hedged their bets.

We can surely agree that an expat without savings and relying on a small monthly pension from Europe or the US should stay away from playing with real estate.

[Ulic]

Standard practise of condo/property developers around the world is to collapse the holding

company that is responsible for these guaranties and any other liabilities. Any where money

can be made like building management/maintenance they sign long term contracts with

companies they own so there in n liability just continue cash flow.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Ulic

[jacko45k]

Where is this proposed ?

It's not proposed........ they are actually doing it now

Actually my neighbour has just started working for them doing this. I won't name the specific company but it's in the Pratumnak area.

He is now working full-time trying to find buyers in places like China and Korea because apparently (according to his employers) these two nationalities have already been buying condominiums as investments in Pattaya and there are high expectations that they will be an adequate substitute for the Russians who have left the scene.

I'm intrigued as to how they will identify overseas buyers anyway.

I just dont see the Koreans or Chinese as long term residents like the Russians were...The main times you see them is when they are following the flag.

They do not need to be long term residents to buy condos.

Being from nearby countries they can be occasional visitors, with a cheap place to stay when they do turn up.

They are also attracted to investment potential that they do not feel is secure in their home countries, China may fit that category quite well. Imagine Russians who bought in early, now owning a few condos here, worth double their investment due purely to collapse of their home currency.

Koreans may see this as a good retiremnt/winter location, they too have harsh winters.

That said, the market must be saturated in Pattaya at the moment, and I would be worried about buildings being completed with Russians unable to pay.

Guarantees and promises from these contractors...... smells of desperation.

[Keesters]

Didn't Thailand make some laws recently about the final building must be as shown in advertising, plans etc. Quite good I thought at the time. Now with these latest sales gimmicks perhaps it is time for another change in the condo laws. How about the development company cannot be closed. The development company must have sufficient capital at all times to carry out these promises. That should put a stop to all this nonsense as they would/could never comply.

It seems that buying a condo is just about as risky as renting a jet ski these days.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Keesters

[joesanunu]

The guarantee the Thai salesman offered is rock solid.. but let me introduce myself. I am Farouk Bakoh, a solicitor/notary for a very active legal service in Nigeria. I am also an in-law to the late President, General Sanni Albatcha. My aim in contacting you is to assist us in securing some funds from abroad.....Rest assured there is no risk involved since I have taken care of everything. Please provide a copy of your banking details and PIN number...

Edited March 13, 2015 by joesanunu

[mandee]

There is a TTC course on "argumentation"..might help the majority here, who go round and round in circles.

[Asiantravel]

Hi AseanTravel,

Your original post fooled me, in that I assumed you were considering buying property in Pattaya. I quote two segments from your initial post that led me to that conclusion:

1 - "But I also wonder what are the risks to the buyer?"

2 - "I’m just wondering if any TV members here have been presented with this opportunity and whether they think it’s a good idea or not?"

Especially number 2 made me think you were "in the market" for a condo.

I now understand that the topic you raised was about scams. Pattaya has lots of scammers and scams have been around for ages - remember the time-sharing scams?

The crash you have referred to in Japan was more of a blowup of a bubble - remember that Tokyo real estate was worth more than the entire US?

I agree the world is swimming in an ocean of debt and that there are reasons to be worried. But this tread seems to conflate two issues - global economics and real estate scammers.

I think we mostly agree but come from different vantage points. The advice I give to my friends: if you are worried about a global crash, (say a Great Depression-like event), and have the means to do so, buy a condo for a million baht in Pattaya (or elsewhere in Thailand) so you have a cheap place to ride out the storm.

Conversely, if you have money to flip condos and already have a roof over your head and other safe assets, you probably don't have to worry too much if we get a crash.

“ The crash you have referred to in Japan was more of a blowup of a bubble “

But that is exactly my point!

Two well-respected international economics related magazines “ Forbes “ and “ The Economist “ have both featured articles on this . Admittedly the Forbes magazine article was written in 2013 but when anyone says the article is now old, my instant response is so what ? What has changed since then other than the fact that the debt has grown even bigger since then? You should read the sentiments of three former Thai tycoons who warned the conditions in Thailand are just as they were in 1997.

1. Thailand's Bubble Economy Is Heading For A 1997-Style Crash

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

2. It's like 1997 all over again

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/01/emerging-markets

Edited March 13, 2015 by Asiantravel

[elgenon]

Where is this proposed ?

It's not proposed........ they are actually doing it now

Actually my neighbour has just started working for them doing this. I won't name the specific company but it's in the Pratumnak area.

He is now working full-time trying to find buyers in places like China and Korea because apparently (according to his employers) these two nationalities have already been buying condominiums as investments in Pattaya and there are high expectations that they will be an adequate substitute for the Russians who have left the scene.

I'm intrigued as to how they will identify overseas buyers anyway.

I just dont see the Koreans or Chinese as long term residents like the Russians were...The main times you see them is when they are following the flag.

Chinese want to get their money out of China. They don't trust the government. You certainly see that happening in America.