Smog in Chaing Mai - Travel in April is ok?

[Tywais]

got to admit this is the worse march since ive been here, hope the rains come soon my eyes and chest are hurting.

[FolkGuitar]

If you were searching for something dumb to post on the thread I think you found it.

Tell me, do you think it's any dumber than complaining here in Thai Visa?

I think you have the area of dumb responses well covered.

I'm sorry if my response when over your head. That must be embarrassing for you. Please accept my apologies.

[Awk]

got to admit this is the worse march since ive been here, hope the rains come soon my eyes and chest are hurting.

Rain.png

So, to beat that other poster to the punch, that means there is a bare 0.115 percent chance it won't rain any of those six days, and thus a 99.885 percent chance it will rain at least one of the days? Sounds like good odds to me.

Though, what is the chance that the weather forecast is 100% correct regarding the chance of rain being 60%, 70%, or 80% on those days? And how does rain or not rain one day affect the probability of rain or not rain the next day?

[cloudhopper]

got to admit this is the worse march since ive been here, hope the rains come soon my eyes and chest are hurting.

Rain.png

So, to beat that other poster to the punch, that means there is a bare 0.115 percent chance it won't rain any of those six days, and thus a 99.885 percent chance it will rain at least one of the days? Sounds like good odds to me.

Though, what is the chance that the weather forecast is 100% correct regarding the chance of rain being 60%, 70%, or 80% on those days? And how does rain or not rain one day affect the probability of rain or not rain the next day?

Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows:

PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

So... in the case of the forecast above, if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".4" which equals .4 or 40%.)

But, most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. )

In either event, the correct way to interpret the forecast is: there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ Fortunately it doesn't actually have to rain (everywhere) for a clearing effect to occur. Just having a weather system move in from a different direction is just fine to clear things up, also when it doesn't actually rain. We've seen this plenty times.

Edited March 20, 2015 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Thailand]

If you were searching for something dumb to post on the thread I think you found it.

Tell me, do you think it's any dumber than complaining here in Thai Visa?

I think you have the area of dumb responses well covered.

I'm sorry if my response when over your head. That must be embarrassing for you. Please accept my apologies.

To the OP, my apologies on behalf of some members who feel it necessary to divert threads for their own quirky needs.

If the rains do arrive as forecast then your visit to Chiangmai will be well worth it, many things to see and do and hopefully in the comfort of smog mask free environment.

Good luck.

[Fiddlesticks]

BANGKOK: -- The haze in Northern Thailand may last longer till end of April unless fire hotspots across the border are put under control, warned Dr Anond Snidvongs, executive director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency.

A news posting from the TV News forum. FYI, the term "haze" is what Thailand uses for what we in the US call smog or air pollution.

[bangmai]

the term "smog" comes from combining smoke with fog. So there is no smog in the dry season. You do hear the term haze in the states, when the air is dry.

[Thailand]

the term "smog" comes from combining smoke with fog. So there is no smog in the dry season. You do hear the term haze in the states, when the air is dry.

Smaze then?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ Fortunately it doesn't actually have to rain (everywhere) for a clearing effect to occur. Just having a weather system move in from a different direction is just fine to clear things up, also when it doesn't actually rain. We've seen this plenty times.

Highlighting the above... Today we got a nice breeze and significant clearing of haze. Shows that you don't need rain for air to clear significantly.

Chances are the PM10 will creep back up again for another couple days spike before it ends, but I'd just thought I'd highlight it to everyone who says "it'll last until June because it only clears due to rain". That's not the case, thank god.

[FolkGuitar]

Rather clear in the Ma Sa valley today.

We noticed something interesting when riding the Samoeng Loop... Lots of burned areas along both sides of the road, clearing out the underbrush, going up the sides of the hills only about 5 meters. Virtually no burned areas above that. The hillsides higher up were still quite choked with undergrowth, and only the sides of the road were burned back. Almost as if those responsible for keeping the roadway clear of foliage were using burning instead of cutting... Not farmers. Not spontaneous fires due to hot/dry conditions. Not shady areas good for mushroom hunting. Just road-side underbrush along the shoulders. Makes me wonder...

Edited March 22, 2015 by FolkGuitar

[Mapguy]

Referring to the ping pong game above:

Excellent, a 280% chance of rain from Sunday to Wednesday, or did I read it wrong!

I just assume you are being obtuse. 5 weather sites all indicating chance of rain beginning Sunday.

No, not really obtuse, just silly. However, the percentage chance of rain varies considerably and appears to lean toward thunderstorms, which can be short in duration and spotty in impact. Not all that unusual at this time of year, really, if memory serves me well enough.

[Mapguy]

Rather clear in the Ma Sa valley today.

We noticed something interesting when riding the Samoeng Loop... Lots of burned areas along both sides of the road, clearing out the underbrush, going up the sides of the hills only about 5 meters. Virtually no burned areas above that. The hillsides higher up were still quite choked with undergrowth, and only the sides of the road were burned back. Almost as if those responsible for keeping the roadway clear of foliage were using burning instead of cutting... Not farmers. Not spontaneous fires due to hot/dry conditions. Not shady areas good for mushroom hunting. Just road-side underbrush along the shoulders. Makes me wonder...

Nothing to wonder about really, just normal road maintenance although machine cutting (by heavy-duty weed whacker) is used along some roads as well road-graders, the latter often very difficult due to the terrain (road verge angle, et cetera) These methods are probably quite a bit more expensive. Otherwise that roadside underbrush will eventually end up being creeping thicket over the road.

Edited March 22, 2015 by Mapguy

[CNXBKKMAN]

Rather clear in the Ma Sa valley today.

We noticed something interesting when riding the Samoeng Loop... Lots of burned areas along both sides of the road, clearing out the underbrush, going up the sides of the hills only about 5 meters. Virtually no burned areas above that. The hillsides higher up were still quite choked with undergrowth, and only the sides of the road were burned back. Almost as if those responsible for keeping the roadway clear of foliage were using burning instead of cutting... Not farmers. Not spontaneous fires due to hot/dry conditions. Not shady areas good for mushroom hunting. Just road-side underbrush along the shoulders. Makes me wonder...

I believe its to stop forest fires caused by motorists throwing their still burning cigarettes out of their vehicles as they drive along. Keeps the roadside growth down also.

[FolkGuitar]

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Rather clear in the Ma Sa valley today.

We noticed something interesting when riding the Samoeng Loop... Lots of burned areas along both sides of the road, clearing out the underbrush, going up the sides of the hills only about 5 meters. Virtually no burned areas above that. The hillsides higher up were still quite choked with undergrowth, and only the sides of the road were burned back. Almost as if those responsible for keeping the roadway clear of foliage were using burning instead of cutting... Not farmers. Not spontaneous fires due to hot/dry conditions. Not shady areas good for mushroom hunting. Just road-side underbrush along the shoulders. Makes me wonder...

Nothing to wonder about really, just normal road maintenance although machine cutting (by heavy-duty weed whacker) is used along some roads as well road-graders, the latter often very difficult due to the terrain (road verge angle, et cetera) These methods are probably quite a bit more expensive. Otherwise that roadside underbrush will eventually end up being creeping thicket over the road.

I believe its to stop forest fires caused by motorists throwing their still burning cigarettes out of their vehicles as they drive along. Keeps the roadside growth down also.

I really need to be more clear when I post in ThaiVisa.

I'm not wondering 'why' it's being done, or who is doing it. This is obviously being done by municipal workers doing roadway maintenance. We saw kilometer after kilometer of burned roadside. Based on the extensive use of it, I'm wondering why people are so quick to allow all the blame to be laid on the farmers rather than the municipal governments who permit this sort of behavior!

Edited March 22, 2015 by FolkGuitar

[onthedarkside]

4 off topic posts removed.

[Ricardo]

Rain (in some areas) yesterday & heavy thundery showers today, should have washed a lot of the smog 'dust' out of the air !

[heybruce]

Thank you rain. If the majority of the burning areas are drenched as well as Chiang Mai was this afternoon (let's hope so) it will take a while before things dry out enough for more burning. I'm too much of a pessimist to be certain the burning season is over, but things look much better than they did a few days ago.

[blueyeshk]

http://www.chiangmaicitylife.com/news-archive/governor-asks-media-not-to-wear-face-masks-or-write-about-pollution-as-it-creates-bad-image-chiang-mai-netizens-furious/

There is no burning season

[Asiantravel]

Is it still clear up there?

[T_Dog]

It seems to be creeping up again. Living in a low lying area, it was bad enough to make the eyes sting this morning. Certainly not as bad as it was in March but we don't appear to be in the clear yet.

[CNXBKKMAN]

Is it still clear up there?

Its much better than the bad spell in March. If the OP is reading this i would say still travel up here. Its the fag end of the smokey season.

[beau thai]

Is it still clear up there?

Its much better than the bad spell in March. If the OP is reading this i would say still travel up here. Its the fag end of the smokey season.

Really?? the Environment Minister has just announced that 1 million rai will be burned in the northern provinces this month and he is asking them to defer burning until May as that is rainy season. Maybe that will happen and maybe not .

And he should be asking them not to burn at all but I suppose that is considered unrealistic.

[angiolo]

April 5th. Its bad again in the North. Mae Sai vis is about 1 kilometer. And getting worse

[CNXBKKMAN]

Is it still clear up there?

Its much better than the bad spell in March. If the OP is reading this i would say still travel up here. Its the fag end of the smokey season.

Really?? the Environment Minister has just announced that 1 million rai will be burned in the northern provinces this month and he is asking them to defer burning until May as that is rainy season. Maybe that will happen and maybe not .

And he should be asking them not to burn at all but I suppose that is considered unrealistic.

I reckon those 1 million rai have been burnt every year. April definately has more chance of thunderstorm showers than March. It always rains during Songkran and in my experience the air improves in April especially compared to the peak doom and gloom days in March. i would still travel up here.

[beau thai]

Is it still clear up there?

Its much better than the bad spell in March. If the OP is reading this i would say still travel up here. Its the fag end of the smokey season.

Really?? the Environment Minister has just announced that 1 million rai will be burned in the northern provinces this month and he is asking them to defer burning until May as that is rainy season. Maybe that will happen and maybe not .

And he should be asking them not to burn at all but I suppose that is considered unrealistic.

I reckon those 1 million rai have been burnt every year. April definately has more chance of thunderstorm showers than March. It always rains during Songkran and in my experience the air improves in April especially compared to the peak doom and gloom days in March. i would still travel up here.

We will never know if the 1 mil he refers to was also burned last year but what is reported is that Govt have been encouraging farmers to switch to miae and apparently agreed some accommodation about burning off that stubble.

CP are the biggest buyers of their maize and have been asked to only buy from non-burn off farmers. Not a snowball's chance in hell....

Its a govt job not for CP to become policeman surely? I dont think that concept of corporate responsibility exists around here.

From this morning's smog the 1 mil burn-off has started-and no significant rain forecast.

[cheeryble]

I read the first page of posts and no one mentioned it already rained and the air is much cleaner in the 70s and I've stopped using a. Mask when cycling.

Is it likely to get that dirty again by Songkran or at all?

[blueyeshk]

Came back to early- next year out end of February and not coming back before May - it's still horrible to see the mountains and fields on fire so late into April.

[true blue]

next year im out of cnx march and possibly april,been bad this year and to date still no really clear days.

[Chicog]

I'm giving it a skip next year too, I think I'll try Hua Hin.