Thai stocks: JAS/JASIF

[usernamex]

Any stock investors out there with some insights into JAS or its infrastructure fund JASIF? I see JAS has paid out a high dividend and will be issuing warrants in June, certainly seems like a good dividend yielding stock in a growth sector but the price of the stock has plummeted over the past couple of weeks. Good buying opportunity or are there some fundamental issues weakening??? Also - what's up with JASIF? - High dividend fund that seems on par with TRUEIF but price continues to drop from IPO price of 10 (while TRUEIF is in the high 11s) - any insights?

Thanks in advance...

Edited March 24, 2015 by usernamex

[fletchsmile]

Don't follow those myself. The following may be of interest to you though:

A sell recommendation from Asia Plus out today

http://inv4.asiaplus.co.th/web_research/doc/2015/03/JAS150326.pdf

Can search for other reports

http://inv4.asiaplus.co.th/cms/index2.php?sc=asp_res_stocktip_h&tid=32455&ln=e

SET info

http://www.set.or.th/set/companynews.do?symbol=JAS&language=en&country=US

SET info - Management Discussion and analysis - from there click on the download

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?headline=Management+Discussion+and+Analysis+Yearly+Ending+31-Dec-2014&time=1425015180000&source=JAS&symbol=JAS&pdf=dat%2Fnews%2F201502%2F15016424.pdf++++++++++++++++++&filename=dat%2Fnews%2F201502%2F15016424.e15++++++++++++++++++&type=H&language=en&country=US

sett trade info on JAS - click on the tabs etc

http://www.settrade.com/C04_01_stock_quote_p1.jsp?txtSymbol=JAS&selectPage=

From the above links you can also do the searches on JASIF in the same way

Cheers

Fletch

[usernamex]

Thanks Fletch!

I noticed one of your other posts - I'm also a big fan of BTS and its one of the biggest in my port - any insight on to my its been on a steady decline for the last 2 months or so ((from about 10.30 to 9.10 yesterday)?

Cheers

[MacWalen]

I believe JAS will go up.

[AyG]

I believe JAS will go up.

I believe the sun will rise tomorrow, and have good reasons to think so.

You believe JAS will go up. Why? (And perhaps you'd care to say over precisely what period your prognostication applies?)

[MacWalen]

I believe JAS will go up.

I believe the sun will rise tomorrow, and have good reasons to think so.

You believe JAS will go up. Why? (And perhaps you'd care to say over precisely what period your prognostication applies?)

The company is profitable and there is still a lot of room for growth. But I don't have to be explaining to you why, do I? I just expressed my opinion. In investing you don't know things exactly. By the end of the year could be 7 baht, maybe more. Nobody can tell exactly. Could it go lower before it goes up? Yes, that could also happen, that is why in investing you need to diversify in case you are wrong.

[AyG]

I believe JAS will go up.

I believe the sun will rise tomorrow, and have good reasons to think so.

You believe JAS will go up. Why? (And perhaps you'd care to say over precisely what period your prognostication applies?)

The company is profitable and there is still a lot of room for growth. But I don't have to be explaining to you why, do I? I just expressed my opinion. In investing you don't know things exactly. By the end of the year could be 7 baht, maybe more. Nobody can tell exactly. Could it go lower before it goes up? Yes, that could also happen, that is why in investing you need to diversify in case you are wrong.

Uh, you are the one promoting an investment course. I thought you might have liked the opportunity to give us some insight into your analytical process.

Based upon "I believe JAS will go up" followed by "The company is profitable and there is still a lot of room for growth" I don't yet see any evidence of anything that would encourage me personally to fork out $1,200 for access to a distillation of your investment wisdom.

[MacWalen]

Investor's intuition. Takes training to develop it. Following fundamentals. Buying at the right time etc.

[MacWalen]

Got me confused, I just got 206,000 baht after tax from Jasmin. Hard ot keep track of all those dividends. Enjoy my trader friends. Learn how real money is made by investors.

[MacWalen]

Today I have increased my position with JAS to 1,481,600 shares. Good time to buy. Should be easy 10-15% profit or even more.

[NanLaew]

I believe JAS will go up.

I believe the sun will rise tomorrow, and have good reasons to think so.

You believe JAS will go up. Why? (And perhaps you'd care to say over precisely what period your prognostication applies?)

The company is profitable and there is still a lot of room for growth. But I don't have to be explaining to you why, do I? I just expressed my opinion. In investing you don't know things exactly. By the end of the year could be 7 baht, maybe more. Nobody can tell exactly. Could it go lower before it goes up? Yes, that could also happen, that is why in investing you need to diversify in case you are wrong.

Uh, you are the one promoting an investment course. I thought you might have liked the opportunity to give us some insight into your analytical process.

Based upon "I believe JAS will go up" followed by "The company is profitable and there is still a lot of room for growth" I don't yet see any evidence of anything that would encourage me personally to fork out $1,200 for access to a distillation of your investment wisdom.

Who here is trying to encourage you to do anything of the kind?

Stop cadging for information.

Stop grinding the axe.

Whichever applies (or both).

[MacWalen]

Today I have increased my position with JAS to 1,481,600 shares. Good time to buy. Should be easy 10-15% profit or even more.

My transaction yesterday. I think getting back to 7.5 - 8 baht is within a year totally possible if there is no major correction or crash. It is a profitable company.

Edit: again I forgot the file.

Edited April 3, 2015 by MacWalen

[usernamex]

Yep - one of the best dividends out there this year! Next will be the warrants...

[MacWalen]

Possibly the bottom and now JAS might start going up again, looks like it. A lot of action today.

[MacWalen]

Look at the last transaction. Someone bought 24.8 mil shares worth 141 mil baht.

[AyG]

When the OP first posted JAS was at 5.65. It's now fallen to 4.92 - a loss of 13% in a month and a half. It fell 4.5% on Friday alone. (Don't know why. It wasn't because it went ex-div.)

Going back a bit further, it was at 9.1 in late February, so since then it's fallen 46%.

Definitely not a stock for widows and orphans.

[WorkingTourist]

I am not trading on the SET so I know nothing about Thai stocks, but I did a bit of reading about Jasmin International because a quick look at their financial report seemed to paint a rosy picture: year-over-year revenue up 16% and an amazing 12.8bn in net profit, so why are people selling the stock?

Turns out 12bn of the Q1 profit came from selling their fiber (they will now lease it from JASIF), so if we subtract the profit made from this sale the year-over-year profit is down 8.3%.

Growth of subscribers did increase in Q1, but if we look at earnings-per-share the growth here is decreasing, in 2011-14 it was: 0.15, 0.30 (100%), 0.42 (40%), and 0.46 (9.5%). The projection for 2015 is negative growth. This can be explained by the average revenue per user, which has been in decline since 2013, and when AIS officially enters their business, it’s probably not going to get any better.

The P/E ratio has gone down from 21 to around 16 which does seem to show that the market does not think of Jasmine International as a growth company.

There seems to be a few other issues, like a planned stock dilution of 33% later this year and a plan to enter the 4G market, which is a long-term bet that is expected to generate a loss for the first 2-3 years.

So all in all I wouldn’t trust MacWalen’s intuition about this company. It’s ironic though, normally I would say that stock markets are not rational (in the short term), so intuition gets you nowhere, but in this case, it seems the investors who sell JAS are fairly rational.

[JB300]

Turns out 12bn of the Q1 profit came from selling their fiber (they will now lease it from JASIF)

So I guess that could explain where the generous dividend came from, but what about the next one?

[MacWalen]

The P/E ratio has gone down from 21 to around 16 which does seem to show that the market does not think of Jasmine International as a growth company.

You could be right or you could be wrong. Time will show. There are a lot of irrational traders.

Edited May 13, 2015 by MacWalen

[MacWalen]

When the OP first posted JAS was at 5.65. It's now fallen to 4.92 - a loss of 13% in a month and a half. It fell 4.5% on Friday alone. (Don't know why. It wasn't because it went ex-div.)

Going back a bit further, it was at 9.1 in late February, so since then it's fallen 46%.

Definitely not a stock for widows and orphans.

And today it was up. Notice that the market is depressed and that weighs on a lot of stocks including this one. Traders have weak nerves so they like to take a loss at they s..t their pants easily.

Edited May 13, 2015 by MacWalen

[MacWalen]

it seems the investors who sell JAS are fairly rational.

Investors are not selling. Just trader boys do. All the way to financial death as is usually the case with most trader boys.

[JB300]

it seems the investors who sell JAS are fairly rational.

Investors are not selling. Just trader boys do. All the way to financial death as is usually the case with most trader boys.

"Trade/Sell"feels the right call on this one...

From http://inv4.asiaplus.co.th/web_research/doc/2015/03/JAS150320.pdf

Jasmine International

1 unit of JAS-W3 for 2.04 shares of JAS

The Board of Directors’ Meeting No. 3/2015 of JAS approved the issuance and allocation of up to 3,497 million units of JAS-W3 Warrants to the existing shareholders in proportion to their shareholding at a ratio of 2.04 ordinary shares of JAS for one unit of JAS-W3 Warrant. In this regard, the unit price of JAS-W3 Warrant is B0; the term of the warrants is five years from the issuance date; the exercise period is the last business day of each quarter (the first exercise date is the last business day of the first quarter following the issuance date of JAS-W3 Warrants). The conversion exercise ratio is one unit of JAS-W3 Warrant for one ordinary share of JAS at an exercise price of B4.30/share. JAS is going XW on June 25, 2015.

High dilution. New business unlikely to generate profit promptly

It is very likely that shareholders who are given JAS-W3 Warrants will exercise their conversion rights since the first year (probably 3Q15) because the exercise price is 35% lower than the market price of JAS. Based on a conservative assumption that JAS-W3 Warrants are entirely converted in the first year, there will be a dilution effect of 33% while JAS will gain B15bn for investing in a new business, 4G mobile service, which may be a joint venture with overseas partner (under a negotiation process now), hoping to encourage JAS home internet and mobile internet use and rival an integrated service of ADVANC and TRUE. However, we have a negative view on the strategy. Since a mobile business will need massive investments for nationwide network expansion and license bidding, JAS will have high fixed expenses in early years of operation. Furthermore, the company will be able to generate add-on revenue only from its existing customers (while it has to compete with other mobile operators in the market to seek new subscribers). Accordingly, we believe JAS would face massive loss at the beginning of the business. We are likely to revise down our profit forecast when JAS’s business plan is clear. Yet, JAS is ready for the new business in terms of investments, given its net cash after JASIF establishment and increasing capital from JAS-W3 Warrants conversion.

Sell when price rebounds

Earnings in the long run can be dampened by the mobile business, which is already dominated by three major players. In addition, new fair value in case that JAS-W3 Warrants are entirely converted in 2015 is B6.3. Accordingly, we downgrade our recommendation to SELL. The fair value has still not included B1.29/share theoretical value of JAS-W3 Warrants; there can be speculation in the short term. The share price may also rebound after falling sharply yesterday because JAS has explained that it would decrease its paid-up capital from 142.7 million repurchased shares and would not sell the repurchased shares to the market as concerned. Nevertheless, due to changes in fundamental factors, we recommend selling JAS when the price rebounds.

Edited May 14, 2015 by JB300

[MacWalen]

it seems the investors who sell JAS are fairly rational.

Investors are not selling. Just trader boys do. All the way to financial death as is usually the case with most trader boys.

"Trade/Sell"feels the right call on this one...

From http://inv4.asiaplus.co.th/web_research/doc/2015/03/JAS150320.pdf

Jasmine International

1 unit of JAS-W3 for 2.04 shares of JAS

The Board of Directors’ Meeting No. 3/2015 of JAS approved the issuance and allocation of up to 3,497 million units of JAS-W3 Warrants to the existing shareholders in proportion to their shareholding at a ratio of 2.04 ordinary shares of JAS for one unit of JAS-W3 Warrant. In this regard, the unit price of JAS-W3 Warrant is B0; the term of the warrants is five years from the issuance date; the exercise period is the last business day of each quarter (the first exercise date is the last business day of the first quarter following the issuance date of JAS-W3 Warrants). The conversion exercise ratio is one unit of JAS-W3 Warrant for one ordinary share of JAS at an exercise price of B4.30/share. JAS is going XW on June 25, 2015.

High dilution. New business unlikely to generate profit promptly

It is very likely that shareholders who are given JAS-W3 Warrants will exercise their conversion rights since the first year (probably 3Q15) because the exercise price is 35% lower than the market price of JAS. Based on a conservative assumption that JAS-W3 Warrants are entirely converted in the first year, there will be a dilution effect of 33% while JAS will gain B15bn for investing in a new business, 4G mobile service, which may be a joint venture with overseas partner (under a negotiation process now), hoping to encourage JAS home internet and mobile internet use and rival an integrated service of ADVANC and TRUE. However, we have a negative view on the strategy. Since a mobile business will need massive investments for nationwide network expansion and license bidding, JAS will have high fixed expenses in early years of operation. Furthermore, the company will be able to generate add-on revenue only from its existing customers (while it has to compete with other mobile operators in the market to seek new subscribers). Accordingly, we believe JAS would face massive loss at the beginning of the business. We are likely to revise down our profit forecast when JAS’s business plan is clear. Yet, JAS is ready for the new business in terms of investments, given its net cash after JASIF establishment and increasing capital from JAS-W3 Warrants conversion.

Sell when price rebounds

Earnings in the long run can be dampened by the mobile business, which is already dominated by three major players. In addition, new fair value in case that JAS-W3 Warrants are entirely converted in 2015 is B6.3. Accordingly, we downgrade our recommendation to SELL. The fair value has still not included B1.29/share theoretical value of JAS-W3 Warrants; there can be speculation in the short term. The share price may also rebound after falling sharply yesterday because JAS has explained that it would decrease its paid-up capital from 142.7 million repurchased shares and would not sell the repurchased shares to the market as concerned. Nevertheless, due to changes in fundamental factors, we recommend selling JAS when the price rebounds.

They could be right but the JAS stock was up over 4% again today. Perhaps the stock does not know about that SELL recommendation. Hm..., time will tell if trader boys are right, they could be, sometimes they get it right. Mostly they get it wrong. If it went back to 9 baht what would they say? It might.

[WorkingTourist]

If it goes back to 9? That’s a 61% increase, yet it would still be lower than two years ago, where it reached 9.55…

I looked at my own portfolie two years ago and now, it has increased by 87% (excl. dividends), so I’m not impressed if your stock reaches 9 by the end of this year.

And speaking of dividends, I just got one myself: more than ฿450K (after tax), and this was actual profit, not just selling company assets. Amounts in picture below are in USD.

Maybe I should come to your class and teach you a thing or two about how you actually make money on the market, I won’t even charge you?

Edited May 14, 2015 by WorkingTourist

[JB300]

it seems the investors who sell JAS are fairly rational.

Investors are not selling. Just trader boys do. All the way to financial death as is usually the case with most trader boys.

"Trade/Sell"feels the right call on this one...

From http://inv4.asiaplus.co.th/web_research/doc/2015/03/JAS150320.pdf

Jasmine International

1 unit of JAS-W3 for 2.04 shares of JAS

The Board of Directors’ Meeting No. 3/2015 of JAS approved the issuance and allocation of up to 3,497 million units of JAS-W3 Warrants to the existing shareholders in proportion to their shareholding at a ratio of 2.04 ordinary shares of JAS for one unit of JAS-W3 Warrant. In this regard, the unit price of JAS-W3 Warrant is B0; the term of the warrants is five years from the issuance date; the exercise period is the last business day of each quarter (the first exercise date is the last business day of the first quarter following the issuance date of JAS-W3 Warrants). The conversion exercise ratio is one unit of JAS-W3 Warrant for one ordinary share of JAS at an exercise price of B4.30/share. JAS is going XW on June 25, 2015.

High dilution. New business unlikely to generate profit promptly

It is very likely that shareholders who are given JAS-W3 Warrants will exercise their conversion rights since the first year (probably 3Q15) because the exercise price is 35% lower than the market price of JAS. Based on a conservative assumption that JAS-W3 Warrants are entirely converted in the first year, there will be a dilution effect of 33% while JAS will gain B15bn for investing in a new business, 4G mobile service, which may be a joint venture with overseas partner (under a negotiation process now), hoping to encourage JAS home internet and mobile internet use and rival an integrated service of ADVANC and TRUE. However, we have a negative view on the strategy. Since a mobile business will need massive investments for nationwide network expansion and license bidding, JAS will have high fixed expenses in early years of operation. Furthermore, the company will be able to generate add-on revenue only from its existing customers (while it has to compete with other mobile operators in the market to seek new subscribers). Accordingly, we believe JAS would face massive loss at the beginning of the business. We are likely to revise down our profit forecast when JAS’s business plan is clear. Yet, JAS is ready for the new business in terms of investments, given its net cash after JASIF establishment and increasing capital from JAS-W3 Warrants conversion.

Sell when price rebounds

Earnings in the long run can be dampened by the mobile business, which is already dominated by three major players. In addition, new fair value in case that JAS-W3 Warrants are entirely converted in 2015 is B6.3. Accordingly, we downgrade our recommendation to SELL. The fair value has still not included B1.29/share theoretical value of JAS-W3 Warrants; there can be speculation in the short term. The share price may also rebound after falling sharply yesterday because JAS has explained that it would decrease its paid-up capital from 142.7 million repurchased shares and would not sell the repurchased shares to the market as concerned. Nevertheless, due to changes in fundamental factors, we recommend selling JAS when the price rebounds.

They could be right but the JAS stock was up over 4% again today. Perhaps the stock does not know about that SELL recommendation. Hm..., time will tell if trader boys are right, they could be, sometimes they get it right. Mostly they get it wrong. If it went back to 9 baht what would they say? It might.

But that feels more like speculating than investing...

From my (very) brief & limited research

As a Speculator, I might be interested as I know that if I bought shares now...

1) They're reasonably low in price to what they have been previously.

2) I get the "Right" on 25th June to increase my holding by almost 50% at a 35% discount (Rights Issues being one of my favorite "Punt" signals & interests me more than a seemingly low stock price).

3)The point about the joint-venture with an overseas telecom is interesting as this could lead to a buy out (of the 4G infrastructure/licenses) at some point which would see a sharp increase in the price (I can't see this happening, but you never know).

However, as an Investor, I'd be concerned about...

1) The Company has already raised capital once so not only is it not the same Company as it was when the share price was higher (holdings have been diluted) it doesn't seem to have done what was expected with the proceeds (buy back & cancel shares to reduce the dilution) but seems to have used it to prop-up its dividend (in itself a worrying sign)

2) The 2nd raising of capital (another red flag) is to be invested in infra/licenses that are going to take years (of low returns/dividends) to payback & at best put them where their competitors are today, during which time they will struggle to attract new customers (not having a 4G offering) and probably lose some to the competition.

As I said, I've only (very very) briefly looked into the Company & there's no doubt a lot that I don't know about, but the red flags above would be enough for me to pass on investing or speculating in it

Good Luck, will be interesting to see what happens to the stock price around the ex-warrant date (25th June) & the date the warrants 1st become exercisable.

Edited May 15, 2015 by JB300

[WorkingTourist]

But that feels more like speculating

[…]

The point about the joint-venture with an overseas telecom is interesting as this could lead to a buy out (of the 4G infrastructure/licenses)

I think you nailed it. Jasmine International is mainly profitting from their 3BB broadband company (about 89% of total revenue).

Fixed broadband is not the future, as the trend is to skip broadband and go directly to mobile (for new users). Media Partners Asia Ltd. estimate that there will be 9.1m broadband connections in Thailand in 2019, that comes out to yearly growth of about 15%, so if 3BB keeps their current marketshare (which at 29.6% is high) and their ARPU does not go down (which it has in the past few years), then we can expect a yearly growth of 15%. But we will hit saturation sooner rather than later, and eventually we will see fixed broadband lines go down (just like dial-up today is a relic).

Focusing on 4G is an obvious choice, as that’s where the (internet) customers are (and/or will go), but running a mobile network requires a lot of investment because you need to have nationwide coverage before you are competitive, and competition here is hard, as the consumer can pick between all of the providers regardless of area, and the current market has data plans where you only subscribe for a single day (i.e. no one year contract to guarantee the provider fixed income).

So buying JAS now is a bet on their potential future 4G business. There is a lot of uncertainty here which equates risk, but the higher the risk, the higher the (potential) return should be.

[WorkingTourist]

I believe JAS will go up.

[…] You believe JAS will go up. Why? […]

The company is profitable and there is still a lot of room for growth.

Having familiarised myself with this company now, I am curious as what you are referring to when you say there is room for a lot of growth.

Are you talking about their 3BB internet business? And if so, do you think it will grow faster than the overall fixed broadband market? I.e. they will increase their marketshare, despite expected competition from AIS.

And what about their ARPU? Do you think it has found its level (after years of decline)?

But I don't have to be explaining to you why, do I? I just expressed my opinion.

True, but it’s a much more interesting discussion if we backup our opinions with the arguments that formed them.

I often learn something when I have to argue my own case, and I learn something when I read other peoples’ arguments for how they reached their conclusion.

I do not learn anything from just seeing an opinion stated without any context.

[MacWalen]

If it goes back to 9? That’s a 61% increase, yet it would still be lower than two years ago, where it reached 9.55…

I looked at my own portfolie two years ago and now, it has increased by 87% (excl. dividends), so I’m not impressed if your stock reaches 9 by the end of this year.

And speaking of dividends, I just got one myself: more than ฿450K (after tax), and this was actual profit, not just selling company assets. Amounts in picture below are in USD.

Maybe I should come to your class and teach you a thing or two about how you actually make money on the market, I won’t even charge you?

You think I have only one stock in my portfolio? Also that I got just one dividend? 450k is little, this is only May and my dividends are already over 1.7 mil so I fail to be impressed. This thread is not about Walen School of Investing, I see you are fascinated by my person and are trying to make this thread a parallel thread to the other one.

[MacWalen]

True, but it’s a much more interesting discussion if we backup our opinions with the arguments that formed them.

If you want me to be teaching you then you need to join Walen course.

[MacWalen]

I do not learn anything from just seeing an opinion stated without any context.

My posts here are not intended to teach anything, I am just sharing my opinions and observations.