Take your pick: This charter or a delayed election

[webfact]

STOPPAGE TIME
Take your pick: This charter or a delayed election

BANGKOK: -- The general theory of relativity should apply when it comes to whether one year is too short or too long before a general election can be held.

The red shirts are seen as the most impatient bunch whereas the Democrats are thought to be more flexible. To interim Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, time flies the fastest.

But last week's development was intriguing. For different reasons, the Democrats, the red shirts plus the political party they support, and Prayut may have reached an unspoken agreement that one year from now might be a bit too short. If comments made during and after a crucial meeting last week were any indication, few appear to be in a hurry to put Thailand back on a civilian-led track.

It's not that everyone has turned against democracy all of a sudden. What makes people dread an early election is the draft charter, which has very quickly turned infamous. The Democrats and red shirt-backed Pheu Thai took one look at the draft and felt chills down their spines. Mind you, the most vocal opposition to the one-year wait was delivered by former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan.

According to Prayut's post-coup road map, a general election should take place early next year or in May at the latest. Nobody was happy about that. The red shirts thought Thailand shouldn't wait that long. The Democrats thought one year was not enough. Western countries would send congratulatory messages to Thailand if an election were held here tomorrow. As for Prayut, the timeframe is a polite statement to the world that he doesn't intend to hog the political limelight.

So, one year meant different things to different people. Until the charter draft came along, that is. Now, one year - to the Thai people at least - seems too short. Jatuporn, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and the Chart Thai Party all have this to say (in their own words, of course): "If we have to pick between this charter draft and waiting longer, it's a no-brainer. If Thailand goes to the polls with this charter, all hell would break loose again, sooner rather than later."

Prayut becomes emotional every time critics pour contempt on the charter draft. His frustration, however, cannot blur the fact that disagreements over charter proposals could inadvertently benefit him. On paper at least, he could start it all over again. A new interim legislature could be set up. A new Constitution-drafting committee could be launched. The only problem is that there are few "new faces" left for him to pick if he is to launch a new constitutional reform process.

What Abhisit doesn't like about the draft has become clearer over the past few days. He said Articles 181 and 182 were big potential problems. Article 181 would virtually enable the prime minister to use parliamentary support to escape censure. It states that the prime minister is entitled to seek parliamentary endorsement of his or her work through a vote. Continued parliamentary support would effectively block a censure motion against him or her in that parliamentary session, whereas the unlikely case of parliamentary objection would lead to House dissolution rather than the prime minister's resignation.

Article 182 could allow the prime minister to bypass Parliament and enact emergency laws. The only way for Parliament to block that would be to launch a censure motion within 48 hours.

Ahbisit is also opposed to the idea of having an all-powerful "reconciliation committee" that would have the ultimate say on who should get political amnesty.

What red shirts and Pheu Thai don't like is the "same old, same old", so to speak. Having portrayed the Yingluck administration as a victim of political conspiracies, they basically cannot afford to back a charter born of Yingluck Shinawatra's "victimisation". But for the record, they don't like the proposed origin of the Senate, the fact that an outsider can become prime minister, and other clauses that could "weaken" the party system.

Meanwhile general observers criticise the charter draft for trying to "overcompensate" in seeking balance. For example, the "too much power" granted the prime minister coincides with the alleged weakening of the party system. Future political parties could face competition from independent candidates, while their right to name high-ranking bureaucratic appointments could also be taken away.

Last but not least, what about grumpy old Prayut? Last week he appeared to underline his stand on his original timeframe, but added "everything depends on the circumstances". That could mean anything, couldn't it? Is it possible that this charter draft was written in the most extreme way so that it would be rejected and thus prolong Prayut's reign? He would respond angrily to that question on his weekly national broadcast and flatly deny it. But one thing he should realise is that this question has the potential to go from a whispered conspiracy theory to a buzzing speculation at any time.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Take-your-pick-This-charter-or-a-delayed-election-30259387.html

-- The Nation 2015-05-06

[aussieinthailand]

So why not enact the 2006 charter and tweak it here and there where necessary, elections in 60 days, then overhaul the judiciary, the police, the education system, health, military, media, and enforce serious penalties for government officials that cheat (corrupt) the country, but with irrefutable evidence as all to often evidence can be manufactured. as for the mafia, human traffickers, and drug dealers, put out a very large reward for people to provide evidence and conviction for the scum, now half of Thailand's problems are finished.

[oneday]

Far better a delayed election than a horribly flawed constitution that will be the guiding laws of the country until the next "coup". That's an easy choice.

[soalbundy]

Far better a delayed election than a horribly flawed constitution that will be the guiding laws of the country until the next "coup". That's an easy choice.

The next coup will come whatever happens,it's a Thai hobby.

[quandow]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

So why not enact the 2006 charter and tweak it here and there where necessary, elections in 60 days, then overhaul the judiciary, the police, the education system, health, military, media, and enforce serious penalties for government officials that cheat (corrupt) the country, but with irrefutable evidence as all to often evidence can be manufactured. as for the mafia, human traffickers, and drug dealers, put out a very large reward for people to provide evidence and conviction for the scum, now half of Thailand's problems are finished.

Why not? One word - Thainess

[Srikcir]

"A new interim legislature could be set up. A new Constitution-drafting committee could be launched. The only problem is that there are few "new faces" left for him to pick if he is to launch a new constitutional reform process."

There are plenty of "new faces." The military just got 1,043 new generals. More than enough to play the roles of NLA, NRC, and CDC. Maybe with a 100% military government General Prayut can shove through the "right" constitution without resrting to Article 44.

[FangFerang]

"Is it possible that this charter draft was written in the most extreme way so that it would be rejected and thus prolong Prayut's reign?"

[Alwyn]

"Is it possible that this charter draft was written in the most extreme way so that it would be rejected and thus prolong Prayut's reign?"

I'd put money on it!

[heybruce]

"A new interim legislature could be set up. A new Constitution-drafting committee could be launched. The only problem is that there are few "new faces" left for him to pick if he is to launch a new constitutional reform process."

There are plenty of "new faces." The military just got 1,043 new generals. More than enough to play the roles of NLA, NRC, and CDC. Maybe with a 100% military government General Prayut can shove through the "right" constitution without resrting to Article 44.

Can you provide a source for the number of new generals? I believe it, but I find it difficult to get accurate information about the Thai military.

The US has less than 1000 admirals and generals on active duty http://archive.armytimes.com/article/20130610/NEWS05/306100039/Defense-bill-calls-reducing-number-generals-flag-officers. It's probably good that they don't have more, it seems when a military has too many generals they start sitting on corporate boards, overthrowing governments, and doing other non-military stuff.

[meltingpot2015]

There were certain clauses left out of the interim constitution (like the requirement for a referendum on the fresh charter) in order to speed-up the process. So, any delay (now) would go against that "original" intention.

Now that there is going to be a referendum, does that mean, avoiding "the lengthy process" is out of the picture.

[bkkcanuck8]

How about a referendum and an election (same time). If the referendum fails, the elected government can chose one of the prior charters - and an amending formula.

Edited May 6, 2015 by bkkcanuck8

[NCFC]

The Charter? How long will it last? If history is anything to go by it won't be more than a couple of years before the next one comes along. What's a million times more important is to get the rule of law imposed - on everyone. There won't be any progress until that happens.

[tbthailand]

"A new interim legislature could be set up. A new Constitution-drafting committee could be launched. The only problem is that there are few "new faces" left for him to pick if he is to launch a new constitutional reform process."

There are plenty of "new faces." The military just got 1,043 new generals. More than enough to play the roles of NLA, NRC, and CDC. Maybe with a 100% military government General Prayut can shove through the "right" constitution without resrting to Article 44.

Can you provide a source for the number of new generals? I believe it, but I find it difficult to get accurate information about the Thai military.

The US has less than 1000 admirals and generals on active duty http://archive.armytimes.com/article/20130610/NEWS05/306100039/Defense-bill-calls-reducing-number-generals-flag-officers. It's probably good that they don't have more, it seems when a military has too many generals they start sitting on corporate boards, overthrowing governments, and doing other non-military stuff.

you will find the number here

[BSJ]

"A new interim legislature could be set up. A new Constitution-drafting committee could be launched. The only problem is that there are few "new faces" left for him to pick if he is to launch a new constitutional reform process."

There are plenty of "new faces." The military just got 1,043 new generals. More than enough to play the roles of NLA, NRC, and CDC. Maybe with a 100% military government General Prayut can shove through the "right" constitution without resrting to Article 44.

Can you provide a source for the number of new generals? I believe it, but I find it difficult to get accurate information about the Thai military.

The US has less than 1000 admirals and generals on active duty http://archive.armytimes.com/article/20130610/NEWS05/306100039/Defense-bill-calls-reducing-number-generals-flag-officers. It's probably good that they don't have more, it seems when a military has too many generals they start sitting on corporate boards, overthrowing governments, and doing other non-military stuff.

you will find the number here

That link doesn't work. Does the 1043 new Generals replace 1043 old retiring Generals? It's mind boggling to think they need 100 in total, but a thousand!

[heybruce]

"A new interim legislature could be set up. A new Constitution-drafting committee could be launched. The only problem is that there are few "new faces" left for him to pick if he is to launch a new constitutional reform process."

There are plenty of "new faces." The military just got 1,043 new generals. More than enough to play the roles of NLA, NRC, and CDC. Maybe with a 100% military government General Prayut can shove through the "right" constitution without resrting to Article 44.

Can you provide a source for the number of new generals? I believe it, but I find it difficult to get accurate information about the Thai military.

The US has less than 1000 admirals and generals on active duty http://archive.armytimes.com/article/20130610/NEWS05/306100039/Defense-bill-calls-reducing-number-generals-flag-officers. It's probably good that they don't have more, it seems when a military has too many generals they start sitting on corporate boards, overthrowing governments, and doing other non-military stuff.

you will find the number here

That link doesn't work. Does the 1043 new Generals replace 1043 old retiring Generals? It's mind boggling to think they need 100 in total, but a thousand!

In 2013 there were 1750 generals and admirals in Thailand http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-011013.html. I suspect the number has gone up since then, but it's difficult to find credible information.

[rubl]

"A new interim legislature could be set up. A new Constitution-drafting committee could be launched. The only problem is that there are few "new faces" left for him to pick if he is to launch a new constitutional reform process."

There are plenty of "new faces." The military just got 1,043 new generals. More than enough to play the roles of NLA, NRC, and CDC. Maybe with a 100% military government General Prayut can shove through the "right" constitution without resrting to Article 44.

Didn't know you suddenly started to like the way the NCPO 'controls' thinks, or is it just a suggestion from your imagination to make someone look bad?

[rubl]

you will find the number here

That link doesn't work. Does the 1043 new Generals replace 1043 old retiring Generals? It's mind boggling to think they need 100 in total, but a thousand!

In 2013 there were 1750 generals and admirals in Thailand http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-011013.html. I suspect the number has gone up since then, but it's difficult to find credible information.

Not that any of this has anything to do about the charter or elections, but strangely there doesn't seem to be data on how many Police Generals there are either.

[meltingpot2015]

Did an online search for "impose rule of law" using my favorite search engine. The top most entry is the definition:

http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Rule+of+Law%2c+the

Further down, we have the wikipedia entry for martial law:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law

Imposition of the rule of law is clearly related to Martial Law, and would be a step back in the current circumstances. (with section 44 in place). of course, some camps argue that section 44 gives the junta more sweeping powers than martial law.

Edited May 7, 2015 by meltingpot2015