Happiness eludes divided Thailand as farmers struggle

[webfact]

Happiness Eludes Divided Thailand as Farmers Struggle
by Chris Blake

(Thailand) There’s not much sign of Thailand’s yearlong military rule in Sakhon Sutasaeng’s home in the rice-growing northeast region of Isan.

In the traditional thatched sala outside his house, beside a sign that says “Defend Democracy,” hangs a portrait of Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed by a 2006 coup. Inside, on a bookshelf, are photos of Thaksin’s sister Yingluck, whose government was toppled by the military last May.

“We’re waiting for the election next year,” said Sakhon, 66, a retired agriculture ministry official. Like many people in the region, he still supports the political movement known as the Red Shirts, who backed Thaksin and his sister. “If nothing happens we are ready to fight to have an election. We have more Red Shirts than the military has soldiers.”

The junta seized power with a promise to bridge a decade of political schism in the country, root out corruption and bring happiness. Coup leader-turned-Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha said he’ll return the country to democracy next year if there is no dissent and a new constitution is put in place.

Full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/happiness-eludes-thailand-s-divided-regions-as-farmers-struggle

-- Bloomberg Business 2015-05-22

[Anthony5]

sign of the times ahead.

[lovetotravel]

From the article:

He said the stable prices under Thaksin had allowed poor farmers to plan their lives, to borrow money and invest in their future.

Stable prices that have put the country seriously into debt. The populist program could not have been continued. Especially considering the slowing global economy.

The farmers would have been better off if the government just gave them money. At least a majority of it would have gone into their pockets instead of those up stream from them. And lost via corruption.

Education is the key here, methinks.

[NeverSure]

The voters will blame the economy on the current government. One of Bill Clinton's advisers said it best when Clinton was running for president. "(It's) the economy, stupid."

The junta will be judged first on the economy whether that's right or not.

[pinkpanther99]

for me, this paragraph is most striking:

"....it has faced a global commodities slump, increasing competition from neighboring countries and slowing demand from China. Consumer confidence fell in April to its lowest level in almost a year, and the baht is Asia’s worst-performing major currency so far this quarter.

Output at Thailand’s factories has declined every month but one since March 2013. Economic growth last quarter was probably about half the pace of Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam."

You could also add to that the decline in tourism, which despite the figures the TAT continues to put out, anyone living here just has to look around to see how quiet it's been this year.

For whoever is running the country, it's going to take a hell of a lot to get Thailand back on track. Maybe it's too late?

[trogers]

How happy can one get being clamped between low produce prices and high level of debts, both a consequence of the populist policy they once cheered for...

Low prices from the high unsold stock, and high debts due to the belief tomorrow never ends.

[worgeordie]

Farmers struggling,what happened to all the good money they

got for their rice? the concept of saving for a rainy day,must

be beyond them,the good times never last forever.

So if they are struggling now,does that mean the fortune spent

on buying rice was a complete failure.

regards worgeordie

[candide]

Here an interesting quote from this Bloomberg's article that sheds light on one of the motive why Southerners went to protest in Bangkok against YL:

"

Manoon joined the protests in Bangkok against Yingluck’s government that eventually led to the military takeover after protest leaders said getting rid of her would lead to higher rubber prices. Now, he says he and his friends feel betrayed.“It’s like a broken promise,” he said. “They don’t care about us at all.”

[hawker9000]

Populism doesn't fix governments or economies. It bloats, undermines, bankrupts, and destroys confidence in them. Amazing that so many can remain in thrall to Thaksin. They have learned nothing, and are therefore doomed to a solutionless future.

[Muhendis]

Farmers struggling,what happened to all the good money they

got for their rice? the concept of saving for a rainy day,must

be beyond them,the good times never last forever.

So if they are struggling now,does that mean the fortune spent

on buying rice was a complete failure.

regards worgeordie

What good money are we talking about here?

Let us say the average rice farm consists of 24 rai and a good yield is one ton/rai. I don't remember the exact figure the farmers were promised by the rice pledging scheme but at the current price of 15 baht/Kg your farmer will have a single crop income of just under £7,000 before costs are subtracted, to last a year. Difficult to find any surplus for a rainy day I think. Until economies of scale come into play (ie farms of 100 rai or more) the only solution is what farmers do now which is to become builders during the non agricultural season.

[lucky11]

How happy can one get being clamped between low produce prices and high level of debts, both a consequence of the populist policy they once cheered for...

Low prices from the high unsold stock, and high debts due to the belief tomorrow never ends.

....but for some absurd reason they still support Thaksin - what is wrong with them, they clearly haven't learned their lesson!!!

If someone claimed to be your friend ( purely for personal gain reasons) and duped you out of all your belongings, then would you still call them your friend? He deserves to suffer due to his ignorance and stupidity!!

[soalbundy]

Farmers struggling,what happened to all the good money they

got for their rice? the concept of saving for a rainy day,must

be beyond them,the good times never last forever.

So if they are struggling now,does that mean the fortune spent

on buying rice was a complete failure.

regards worgeordie

What good money are we talking about here?

Let us say the average rice farm consists of 24 rai and a good yield is one ton/rai. I don't remember the exact figure the farmers were promised by the rice pledging scheme but at the current price of 15 baht/Kg your farmer will have a single crop income of just under £7,000 before costs are subtracted, to last a year. Difficult to find any surplus for a rainy day I think. Until economies of scale come into play (ie farms of 100 rai or more) the only solution is what farmers do now which is to become builders during the non agricultural season.

My wife has 220 rai and couldn't make ends meet at today's prices which is why we wont plant anything until prices rise

[wowfactor10]

I sorry to admit that Thailand lost a lot of his credit and its appeal from foreigners..

[elgordo38]

Here an interesting quote from this Bloomberg's article that sheds light on one of the motive why Southerners went to protest in Bangkok against YL:

"

Manoon joined the protests in Bangkok against Yingluck’s government that eventually led to the military takeover after protest leaders said getting rid of her would lead to higher rubber prices. Now, he says he and his friends feel betrayed.“It’s like a broken promise,” he said. “They don’t care about us at all.”

You can be guaranteed the elite in Bangkok are still popping the Champagne corks.

[Robby nz]

Unfortunately that Bloomberg article has quite a number of inaccuracies which detract from its credibility, for instance :

"Thaksin, who pursued a similar rice-purchase program, fled Thailand after being convicted by a military-appointed court of corruption and abuse of power."

He was not convicted by a military appointed court he was convicted by a criminal court during the tenure of one of his own proxy parties.

Things like that make me wonder where they get their information.

But PT will have their lobbyists out there telling things their way and hoping to convince as many as possible to vote for them or their reincarnation in the next election

Things may not be quite as clear cut as they would like us to believe with all the rice farmers still supporting a shin party, read the following link and you may get an idea why :

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/700555-unpida-thai-rice-farmers-allege-intimidation-as-protest-ends/

[trogers]

Farmers struggling,what happened to all the good money they

got for their rice? the concept of saving for a rainy day,must

be beyond them,the good times never last forever.

So if they are struggling now,does that mean the fortune spent

on buying rice was a complete failure.

regards worgeordie

What good money are we talking about here?

Let us say the average rice farm consists of 24 rai and a good yield is one ton/rai. I don't remember the exact figure the farmers were promised by the rice pledging scheme but at the current price of 15 baht/Kg your farmer will have a single crop income of just under £7,000 before costs are subtracted, to last a year. Difficult to find any surplus for a rainy day I think. Until economies of scale come into play (ie farms of 100 rai or more) the only solution is what farmers do now which is to become builders during the non agricultural season.

One tonne per rai? That would be from 3 harvests, not one.

[ldiablo]

What has this so called government actually done to try to get these two sides to coexist. Absolutely nothing.

[baboon]

Here an interesting quote from this Bloomberg's article that sheds light on one of the motive why Southerners went to protest in Bangkok against YL:

"

Manoon joined the protests in Bangkok against Yinglucks government that eventually led to the military takeover after protest leaders said getting rid of her would lead to higher rubber prices. Now, he says he and his friends feel betrayed.Its like a broken promise, he said. They dont care about us at all.

But, but Thanksin...

Just thought I would save somebody else the bother...

[MaeJoMTB]

My wife has 220 rai and couldn't make ends meet at today's prices which is why we wont plant anything until prices rise

My wife has 5 rai of paddy, hasn't planted the last 3 years, not worth the effort.

[steven100]

farmer will only be happy when ....

[Skywalker69]

Farmers struggling,what happened to all the good money they

got for their rice? the concept of saving for a rainy day,must

be beyond them,the good times never last forever.

So if they are struggling now,does that mean the fortune spent

on buying rice was a complete failure.

regards worgeordie

What good money are we talking about here?

Let us say the average rice farm consists of 24 rai and a good yield is one ton/rai. I don't remember the exact figure the farmers were promised by the rice pledging scheme but at the current price of 15 baht/Kg your farmer will have a single crop income of just under £7,000 before costs are subtracted, to last a year. Difficult to find any surplus for a rainy day I think. Until economies of scale come into play (ie farms of 100 rai or more) the only solution is what farmers do now which is to become builders during the non agricultural season.

I don't remember the exact figure the farmers were promised by the rice pledging scheme

15 000 thb/ton but in a blink of an eye, the lease of land went up, crops went up, fertiliser went up, the price for pesticide went up, also not all the farmers got the 15 000 they was promised, so now the farmers are poorer than before the sceme.

[h90]

From the article:

He said the stable prices under Thaksin had allowed poor farmers to plan their lives, to borrow money and invest in their future.

Stable prices that have put the country seriously into debt. The populist program could not have been continued. Especially considering the slowing global economy.

The farmers would have been better off if the government just gave them money. At least a majority of it would have gone into their pockets instead of those up stream from them. And lost via corruption.

Education is the key here, methinks.

ahh next election the Thaksin party will promise everyone get rich, get a Pickup, a free iPhone, hot ice cream and 500 Baht for the right vote and they will get elected again. And if the Democrats over it than Thaksin will promise a free Ferrari for everyone and tell it is only the Bangkok elite who wants them poor....

[emilymat]

I sense in my bones a snap 'poll' from those university people. Mid 80's happiness factor I would have thought

[steven100]

I sorry to admit that Thailand lost a lot of his credit and its appeal from foreigners..

that depends on what you mean by credit & appeal .. I still enjoy the sex & beer !! that's my appeal.

[ratcatcher]

Here an interesting quote from this Bloomberg's article that sheds light on one of the motive why Southerners went to protest in Bangkok against YL:

"

Manoon joined the protests in Bangkok against Yingluck’s government that eventually led to the military takeover after protest leaders said getting rid of her would lead to higher rubber prices. Now, he says he and his friends feel betrayed.“It’s like a broken promise,” he said. “They don’t care about us at all.”

You can be guaranteed the elite in Bangkok are still popping the Champagne corks.

"You can be guaranteed the elite in Bangkok are still popping the Champagne corks. "

As a fellow member of the elite (Dubai chapter) I'll drink to that ! .

[Robby nz]

What has this so called government actually done to try to get these two sides to coexist. Absolutely nothing.

You may or may not have noticed but they actually paid the rice farmers what they were owed which is something the Yingluck Govt failed to do or make provision for before they dissolved the house.

It is also a fact that farmers debt is a left over from the Yingluck term, according to the Freedom Barometer report :

http://freedombarometer.org/assets/pdfs/Freedom-Barometer-Special-Report-Thailands-Agrarian-Policy.pdf

Coinciding with increases in

governmental debt is overall debt

held by farmers, which now

amounts to 103,047 baht per

head. Since 2010 debts have

climbed by 6% per year.

So a 6% per year climb in farmers debt, sort of gives a lie to helping the farmers and there is more : And :

Costs have risen from between 5,000 and 6,000 baht per ton of rice to between

7,000 and 9,000 baht per ton, mainly due to increasing rents and increasing prices of

fertilisers and insecticides. In addition, there are new minimum wages for agricultural workers

which have to be paid by the farmers. One also has to consider the fact that the grain mills are

authorised to deduct an amount of up to 3,000 baht per ton if the rice is assessed as being too wet.

As you can see the landlords and suppliers put their prices up in order to get their share of the bonanza. And :

Overall, farmers’ average revenues have decreased by 23% between 2011 and

2012. This is not solely a result of problems in the rice industry, but also because of a weak

market for other agricultural products such as rubber and palm oil.

It would seem given these facts that it may just be a little unreasonable to expect things to be put right in one year

[tomacht8]

From the article:

He said the stable prices under Thaksin had allowed poor farmers to plan their lives, to borrow money and invest in their future.

Stable prices that have put the country seriously into debt. The populist program could not have been continued. Especially considering the slowing global economy.

The farmers would have been better off if the government just gave them money. At least a majority of it would have gone into their pockets instead of those up stream from them. And lost via corruption.

Education is the key here, methinks.

Education is the key here, methinks.

Agree 100%

Many simple farmers do not know that other countries also grow rice and are much more productive.

The prices of agricultural goods are world market prices.

Instead of subsidizing blind here selected party loyalty rice farmers, the money should be invested in education.

Having a target market, to grow appropriate species, long-term keeping of a farm operation, etc.

Listening to a Messiah who promises wealth with the simple cultivation of rice, is tempting.

[Emster23]

But he promised to return happiness to Thai people! He really, really, really, really REALLY did! All they had to do was "loan" him rulership privileges for a "limited time" (The universe scheduled to end in 100 trillion years...). Ever loan anything to Thai and had it paid back? Seems loan and gift are synonyms...

[Mr Somtam]

From the article:

He said the stable prices under Thaksin had allowed poor farmers to plan their lives, to borrow money and invest in their future.

Stable prices that have put the country seriously into debt. The populist program could not have been continued. Especially considering the slowing global economy.

The farmers would have been better off if the government just gave them money. At least a majority of it would have gone into their pockets instead of those up stream from them. And lost via corruption.

Education is the key here, methinks.

ahh next election the Thaksin party will promise everyone get rich, get a Pickup, a free iPhone, hot ice cream and 500 Baht for the right vote and they will get elected again. And if the Democrats over it than Thaksin will promise a free Ferrari for everyone and tell it is only the Bangkok elite who wants them poor....

Yes, and it's the people's right to vote for him if they want. Stupid or not. It's called democracy. Eventualy, without the military intervening, they will get smarter and the system can mature.

[Alwyn]

Populism doesn't fix governments or economies. It bloats, undermines, bankrupts, and destroys confidence in them. Amazing that so many can remain in thrall to Thaksin. They have learned nothing, and are therefore doomed to a solutionless future.

Perhaps these people still like Thaksin or don't like him but really don't like the alternatives to him? Rightly or wrongly they just don't like the alternatives.