BOT says economy losing momentum, to cut growth forecast

[Lite Beer]

SLOW RECOVERY
BOT says economy losing momentum, to cut growth forecast
Erich Parpart
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand (BOT) said the "slow and fragile" economic recovery in April and the potential of a lower-than-expected growth in China might slow down Thailand's economic momentum, raising the possibility of the economic outlook for the second quarter only matching the first quarter.

Thailand's economy in the first quarter expanded by only 0.3 per cent when compared to the 1.7-per-cent growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to data provided by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board.

"The economy is recovering but we will have to wait and see whether it is a decent or a slow recovery, as we are currently reassessing our economic and export projections," said Roong Mallikamas, BOT's senior director at the Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Department.

"The economic momentum in the second quarter has slowed down compared to what we had previously assessed and the economic expansion in the second quarter would also determine the economic momentum in the next quarters," she added.

The BOT is expecting to revise down its gross domestic product forecast for 2015 on June 10 from the current 3.8 per cent projection. Roong confirmed what BOT director of the Macroeconomic Policy Office Don Nakornthab had said earlier that Thailand's export sector faced the risk of contracting for three years in a row.

"The expansion of the export sector will be around zero or lower than that this year," she said.

BOT explained that households and businesses had stayed cautious last month as non-farm household income moderated and farm income was pressured by low agriculture prices and lower output. Private investment indicators have decreased slightly when compared to March despite lower cost of funding following the policy rate cut.

Meanwhile, merchandise exports continued to contract and the main culprit was the slowdown in the Asean market, which was impacted by the slowdown in China. The slow recovery in major trading partners, namely the US, Japan and Europe also contributed to the fourth consecutive month of export contraction since the beginning of the year.

Public spending, particularly capital expenditure for transportation and irrigation continued to disburse well but more spending on mega-projects was needed to boost private investment.

"The economic momentum would be delayed further [in the second half of the year]," Roong said.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/BOT-says-economy-losing-momentum-to-cut-growth-for-30261293.html

-- The Nation 2015-05-30

[quandow]

This story changes every day of the week that end in "Y."

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Let see:

1. An El Nino on its way, predicted to be as bad as the 1997/98 one. Which would lead to increased food prices and food shortages. Farmers will have less income because of lower yields or the inability to plant.

2. Exports slumping as world demand decrease.

3. Tourism income falling due to a world wide recession.

4. Rejection of the constitution farce by the people. Junta holding on to power for another 2 years to draw up another farce of a constitution.

5. Continued suppression of peoples views and more human rights violations.

What can go wrong ?

[Pib]

Sounds like another rate cut coming on 10 June when the BOT Monetary Policy Committee meets.

[NeverSure]

Sounds like another rate cut coming on 10 June when the BOT Monetary Policy Committee meets.

You're probably right. Now might be a good time to be in Pounds or Dollars. The baht dropped noticeably after the last policy rate cut.

[mango66]

Sounds like another rate cut coming on 10 June when the BOT Monetary Policy Committee meets.

You're probably right. Now might be a good time to be in Pounds or Dollars. The baht dropped noticeably after the last policy rate cut.

its time the baht goes down there where he should be !!

Foreigners will not always sponsor there overpricing !!

[mango66]

you should pay more for the rice to farmers,

and compensate this by higher export prices !

You will catch 2 flies in one step,

more buying power by people,

and more income from export !

Thaksins did show for many years how perfect this works !!

[elgordo38]

Let see:

1. An El Nino on its way, predicted to be as bad as the 1997/98 one. Which would lead to increased food prices and food shortages. Farmers will have less income because of lower yields or the inability to plant.

2. Exports slumping as world demand decrease.

3. Tourism income falling due to a world wide recession.

4. Rejection of the constitution farce by the people. Junta holding on to power for another 2 years to draw up another farce of a constitution.

5. Continued suppression of peoples views and more human rights violations.

What can go wrong ?

Wake me up when we get to the stalled part

[elgordo38]

Sounds like another rate cut coming on 10 June when the BOT Monetary Policy Committee meets.

I think you got it right soon we will have to pay to park our money with the banks. The cut will come with a statement saying inflation has dropped again. I sure would love a devaluation but that might a some time off after the government has used up as the say in the West "All the tools at our disposal" unquote

[elgordo38]

Sounds like another rate cut coming on 10 June when the BOT Monetary Policy Committee meets.

You're probably right. Now might be a good time to be in Pounds or Dollars. The baht dropped noticeably after the last policy rate cut.

its time the baht goes down there where he should be !!

Foreigners will not always sponsor there overpricing !!

As in poker you do not go "All In" till you have to. The Set has also been hanging in there but as interest rates drop the flow of incoming money could be outgoing. Money is much like the tides in the ocean. Its only when the tide goes out that you see the truth. Low tide reveals many things.

Edited May 30, 2015 by elgordo38