Confrontation looms as two fortresses rise in South China Sea

[wwest5829]

Recommend the reading of, "On China", followed by, "When China Rules the World" for a better understanding of the traditional Chinese approach to diplomacy. Whether the traditional approach will work in today's world I do not know. The books do give a good background.

[Bwanatickey]

China is building military bases in Africa, an Airbase in Zimbabwe, a Naval base in Namibia.

[mikebike]

it is easier for China to start a war by virtue of being a political dictatorship.

I strongly doubt the veracity of the above statement. Modern China has yet to engage in any military action outside of its own direct sphere of influence. The USA on the other hand, has proven its eagerness to invade and destabilize world-wide, without the political burden of actually having to debate in congress or actually declare war. The US military might - stronger alone than all the nations of the world combined - has proven the ease in which it can go to war. Dictatorship or democracy where there's a will...

[arjunadawn]

China is perhaps the greatest adversary the US has ever had. The US, unable to articulate a policy short of 4 years and unable to abide by moral principles that govern its longer policy objectives, is a paper tiger, literally. In the hands of inexorable long range visions and policies toward that end, the US underestimates China at every turn. I have no doubt the US could stomp China today, but the losses would be incalculable for both. Failing that untenable option, the US basically and consistently plays into Chinese hands. Having said this, China is less interested in ideologically/military trumping the US as it is motivated to achieve regional and global hegemony with the US subordinated to its inferior house.

[ABCer]

I strongly hope that opinions opposite to mine turn out true and there is no war.

I wholeheartedly wish that if the war breaks out it will be short and victorious.

But I'm afraid. Very afraid...

After all, China is no Afghanistan, no Iraq, no Vietnam, no N. Korea - it's much more than all of them rolled in one.

Edited June 11, 2015 by ABCer

[ABCer]

That would be most interesting. I wonder how many countries would be willing to sell oil to China in Yuan.

I know at least one that would be interested in a barter deal - arms for oil. Not even conventional arms at that.

[rexaco123]

That would be most interesting. I wonder how many countries would be willing to sell oil to China in Yuan.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-09/petroyuan-born-gazprom-now-settling-all-crude-sales-china-renminbi

[IAMHERE]

China would not be playing high stakes poker if she didn't calculate her adversaries would fold. Whether or not this proves to be the case I can certainly see how they might have arrived at such a conclusion.

China doesn't have adversaries. Only one adversary: USA

[ace]

The US has fought 2 wars with China in the last 60 years, neither went well and at the time the military superiority was far greatrr than today. They have also stated under the current administration that military action is not on the table. Therefore China acts to implement its own version of the Monroe doctrine,

[Usernames]

I have no clue as to why Western powers buy one ggdddmmm thing from China, further propping up it's otherwise defunct economy. The countries it is threatening are all major buyers of its exports.

Put an additional 25% import tariff on everything it exports to drastically reduce its competitiveness. Leave that in place while announcing further increases over time to allow international companies to pull out of there and locate elsewhere including in the West. We give them jobs and manufacturing money just so they can turn around and threaten?

Next fly a couple of stealth bombers over and drop bunker busters on their projects and then follow with a couple more and then more. Then deny, deny, deny. Stealth means stealth.

Who in his right mind would threaten his only big export customers? Answer: The communists in Beijing aren't in their right minds.

The communists in Beijing are wily old strategists. They also have several millions of "citizens" placed around the globe, "innocently" baking bread, tending market gardens, and cooking egg foo yung for Western customers.

James W. Gerard, the former US ambassador to Germany, had this to say to German threats in 1918.

The Foreign Minister of Germany once said to me "your country does not dare do anything against Germany, because we have in your country 500,000 German reservists who will rise in arms against your government if you dare to make a move against Germany." Well, I told him that that might be so, but that we had 500,001 lamp posts in this country, and that that was where the reservists would be hanging the day after they tried to rise.

[Trouble]

Think it is time for a joint US, Taiwan, Philippine, Japanese, Korean project to do a reclamation project in the same area and suck as much oil out of the seabed as they can. They can build their own islands and not let China end up claiming the entire area.

[Publicus]

The PLA has apparently been put under orders from Xi Jinping to talk this through with SecDef Ashton Carter and US Pacific Naval Command at Pearl Harbor to reach agreed bottom lines that each side can live with.

The Global Times which is normally a strident PLA mouthpiece published an editorial yesterday proposing the US and CCP military leaders sit down and talk. It noted China's top military officer Gen Fang Chanlong is currently visiting in the US and is scheduled to sit with Sec Carter after a tour of the huge Ft. Hood in Texas, headquarters of US Army Armor Command (tanks).

The Global Times editorial spoke in language Xi uses regularly, such as the Chinese Dream, new power relations between the US and China, a positive dialogue, and it pointed out that :

"Recently, concerns have grown about the increasing possibilities of military miscalculations and hence conflicts between the two given the harsh US stance on China's construction activities in the South China Sea. In this context, a visit that enables military leaders from China and the US to express their bottom lines and concerns is certainly useful to alleviate unfavorable emotions."

The GT took a remarkably soft line of mutual interest throughout the editorial, further noting that....

"Some prominent China experts think that bilateral relations are at a crisis point and call for a major adjustment or even shift to containment in its policy on China. But overall, the China-US relationship is an enormous and complicated system.

"China and the US are forming a new type of relations and various exchanges have been conducted to better understand each other and reduce the chances of miscalculations. Meanwhile, the extensive and sizable exchanges in economic, cultural and personnel sectors that have massive implications worldwide will ensure the two sides will act cautiously when making decisions.

"There will be friction and divergences between China and the US, but as neither wishes for conflict, military ties will steer in a positive direction. In this process, frank communication and exchange between them is always helpful."

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/926447.shtml

Maybe the bully up north there has got the message to chill or to be chilled and now it wants to talk this through.

The fact is it's the 21st century and no one is inscrutable and the United States has an overabundance of experience in dealing with the Marxist-Leninist plus Maoist mindset, and Xi Jinping has an unreconstructed one. And no one has ever accused Xi Jinping of being anything more than a man of modest intellectual gifts. Still, Xi can't be too slow witted cause he wants to saddle up the PLA to negotiate whatever it takes to get him out of the current mess.

The appeal in the otherwise militant Global Times is also significant because by the end of last year Xi had purged the PLA and military command of generals and admirals loyal to Xi's mortally conflicting predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, replacing them with commanders whose first loyalty is to Xi and above all else to Xi, who is now the most powerful CCP chairman since Mao Himself.

[lannarebirth]

I have no clue as to why Western powers buy one ggdddmmm thing from China, further propping up it's otherwise defunct economy. The countries it is threatening are all major buyers of its exports.

Put an additional 25% import tariff on everything it exports to drastically reduce its competitiveness. Leave that in place while announcing further increases over time to allow international companies to pull out of there and locate elsewhere including in the West. We give them jobs and manufacturing money just so they can turn around and threaten?

Next fly a couple of stealth bombers over and drop bunker busters on their projects and then follow with a couple more and then more. Then deny, deny, deny. Stealth means stealth.

Who in his right mind would threaten his only big export customers? Answer: The communists in Beijing aren't in their right minds.

Well the US and China make strange bedfellows. First the US buys all their "junk" from China the stuff that used to made in the USA years ago. This supposedly freed up the USA to concentrate on producing high value products that in turn would be sold around the world. Hence all that money flows to China. Because of this China now holds a TRILLION or more dollars of American Tbills. In essence it holds the USA in its financial RED fist. If the USA quits buying China dumps all those Tbills on the market and causes a world wide panic and destabilizes the USA and its currency and the world economies collapse. In summary I am on your side. We should not be doing business with countries that are corrupt, have no pollution standards or regards for human labor. But there is a trump card in all of this called BIG BUSINESS GREED!! Greed has no honor, humility, knows no boundries. It is a juggernaut rolling over the planet much like climate change. Greed's foot soldiers politicians are always on the march marginalizing the lowly worker to make way for the future. I am glad I will have passed by then it will not be pretty.

I agree with you about doing business with countries that pollute heavily. Goods from there should be taxed heavily towards future costs of the environmental fallout. Such a tax will either persuade the exporting country to tighten environmental guidelines, or persuade producers to estblish factories in other countries.

I think your fear of China selling off T Bills is a bit of a red herring though. If that were ever to come to pass Bond funds, other foreign nations and The Fed would be quick to step in.

[NeverSure]

Hence all that money flows to China. Because of this China now holds a TRILLION or more dollars of American Tbills. In essence it holds the USA in its financial RED fist.

I think your fear of China selling off T Bills is a bit of a red herring though. If that were ever to come to pass Bond funds, other foreign nations and The Fed would be quick to step in.

"Hence all that money flows to China. Because of this China now holds a TRILLION or more dollars of American Tbills. In essence it holds the USA in its financial RED fist."

I can never understand how this myth is perpetuated. It's isn't the US that's trapped by this, it's China!! The USD is the world's international trading currency. China has to hold a lot of dollars to engage in international trade because few would accept its money for its purchases, and few would pay it in its currency.

China holds US Dollar Treasury Bill reserves so that it has money to back its international trades. End of.

China really can't afford to hold the bills and it can't afford not to or it would be out of its biggest business - international trade.

When someone gets over the mistaken idea the "the US needs to borrow money from China", only then can he began to see the fragility of the Chinese economy which relies on the West for a huge chunk of its export income.

China bought USD because it had to.

[Publicus]

I have no clue as to why Western powers buy one ggdddmmm thing from China, further propping up it's otherwise defunct economy. The countries it is threatening are all major buyers of its exports.

Put an additional 25% import tariff on everything it exports to drastically reduce its competitiveness. Leave that in place while announcing further increases over time to allow international companies to pull out of there and locate elsewhere including in the West. We give them jobs and manufacturing money just so they can turn around and threaten?

Next fly a couple of stealth bombers over and drop bunker busters on their projects and then follow with a couple more and then more. Then deny, deny, deny. Stealth means stealth.

Who in his right mind would threaten his only big export customers? Answer: The communists in Beijing aren't in their right minds.

Well the US and China make strange bedfellows. First the US buys all their "junk" from China the stuff that used to made in the USA years ago. This supposedly freed up the USA to concentrate on producing high value products that in turn would be sold around the world. Hence all that money flows to China. Because of this China now holds a TRILLION or more dollars of American Tbills. In essence it holds the USA in its financial RED fist. If the USA quits buying China dumps all those Tbills on the market and causes a world wide panic and destabilizes the USA and its currency and the world economies collapse. In summary I am on your side. We should not be doing business with countries that are corrupt, have no pollution standards or regards for human labor. But there is a trump card in all of this called BIG BUSINESS GREED!! Greed has no honor, humility, knows no boundries. It is a juggernaut rolling over the planet much like climate change. Greed's foot soldiers politicians are always on the march marginalizing the lowly worker to make way for the future. I am glad I will have passed by then it will not be pretty.

China now holds a TRILLION or more dollars of American Tbills. In essence it holds the USA in its financial RED fist. If the USA quits buying China dumps all those Tbills on the market and causes a world wide panic and destabilizes the USA and its currency and the world economies collapse.

The CCP Boyz in Beijing and the entire world know the Boyz can't dump their USD of forex reserves without necessarily destroying their own economy and country. The myth of Beijing being the banker of the US is the most prolific fairy tale in the world today, so no matter how people continue to slice it, it's still baloney.

The Boyz would break the yuan and destroy it, demolish their current account, explode inflation and send the country quickly to hell. It would be mutually assured destruction and anyone who can count the number of pennies in one dollar knows this.

T-Bills as with any financial instrument of its kind are time-termed so if the Boyz would want to take a haircut that would leave them completely bald that would be another factor.

The quoted statement, which is repeated ad infinitum and ad nauseam, is legend, myth, superstition. The US and the PRChina are mutually interdependent and each side knows it. And the world would end up back on the USD anyway -- the world knows this to include the Boyz.

The United States is thus prepared to make a stand in the SCS, Beijing is not.

[Publicus]

China is building military bases in Africa, an Airbase in Zimbabwe, a Naval base in Namibia.

Counting Fiery Reef in the SCS, that gives the CCP Boyz in Beijing a global grand total of three military bases - Zimbabwe with their guy Robert Mugabe, Nambia, Fiery Reef.

The Boyz might have built one or two more while I was busy reading the Global Times, so maybe now the global total of CCP military bases might be six or so.

Actually the Boyz have several more military bases in their "String of Pearls" around India from Myanmar to Pakistan which India considers to be rather forward and impolite at the least, so India just recently constructed huge naval and air force facilities in the Andaman Islands at the entrance to the Malacca Strait. That changed India's fairly recent "Look East" policy (China) to its present "Move East" policy (China) to include naval maneuvers with Vietnam and also Malaysia.in the SCS, not to mention with Japan also in the East Sea.

The Boyz were recently thrown out of Sri Lanka due to a surprise election outcome btw that sent their guy in the presidency back to his hometown in the jungle.

The CCP Boyz in Beijing are a gang of klutzes.

[NeverSure]

I agree with you about doing business with countries that pollute heavily. Goods from there should be taxed heavily towards future costs of the environmental fallout. Such a tax will either persuade the exporting country to tighten environmental guidelines, or persuade producers to estblish factories in other countries.

I think your fear of China selling off T Bills is a bit of a red herring though. If that were ever to come to pass Bond funds, other foreign nations and The Fed would be quick to step in.

I apologize for quoting you here when I didn't mean to reply to two posts and it's too late to change it. I meant to reply only to the nested one. I agree with your post here.

Cheers.

[geriatrickid]

The US has fought 2 wars with China in the last 60 years, neither went well and at the time the military superiority was far greatrr than today. They have also stated under the current administration that military action is not on the table. Therefore China acts to implement its own version of the Monroe doctrine,

I disagree. In Korea, the Chinese greatly outmanned the UN forces. However, the large US contingent was able to maintain the integrity of South Korea. In the Vietnam/Laos/Cambodia conflict, the US was again outmanned. Circumstances were very different during that period, with the US military being made up in large part of poorly trained, poorly led ill disciplined personnel. The US learnt its lesson and by the time its forces went back into action in Panama, and the two Gulf Wars, the US military had become a well disciplined, motivated and professional military. Unlike China, the US has had a chance to hone its skills and test its tactics. Despite all the criticism levied by GOP hawks against Obama, his disengagement strategy in Afghanistan and Iraq has given the US military breathing room and a chance to regroup and for the US economy to save billions of $$ that would have otherwise been wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It's easy to snipe at the US, but China has had its arse handed to it by the Vietnamese on a couple of occasions. China also has to concern itself with a hostile border with India. China cannot afford to fight a multi front war and to take on South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan. 3 of those countries have militaries that are highly rated and well equipped and they won't run away from the Chinese because they know that their freedom and national integrity is at stake.

[squarethecircle]

"But I'm afraid. Very afraid...

After all, China is no Afghanistan, no Iraq, no Vietnam, no N. Korea - it's much more than all of them rolled in one."

Well any military action would be on the periphery, and I suppose this is why the Ch. war hawks would launch a brief, decisive war strike, ie: they are the ones who are expanding outwards.

And for an actual invasion of the mainland as you describe, even "small" Chinese cities are so densely freaking packed that an actual invasion as you suggest is not in anyone's interest. (not to trash-talk the place but it is kind of a polluted s******e).

Like in Korea, the communist forces were able to maintain an area tucked in to China, but their expanse was halted.

But doing so would invite a Ukraine-style response. Putin made it clear that direct intervention in eastern Ukraine would draw Russian military response, just like this. So an economic response was made.

I notice both Putin and Xi see themselves as some kind of restorers of a glorious Chinese / Russian past, this is reflected in their propaganda like on Pravda or CCTV. Denying that to them over the long term would be another way to respond. Then again, I don't believe either of them have souls.

[Publicus]

Here's a selected partial summary of the SCS problem as the problem exists up to the present.

I'd add to it that India in recent years has become very active in assisting certain Asean countries that are the most focused target of the CCP Boyz' revanchism and irredentism.

India has very recently signed new "strategic agreements" with Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, to include Navy maneuvers with each country in each the East Sea and in the SCS. India has its own aircraft carrier and is itself constructing two more, in addition to building its own nuclear powered missile submarines to expand their number. India announced two years ago it had successfully tested a missile that can reach Beijing.

China’s Indian Ocean push

Chinese military leader Zhao Nanqi said in the 1990s: “We can no longer accept the Indian Ocean as an ocean only of the Indians”.

China’s Maritime Silk Route Is New String of Pearls Theory

In 2005, the U.S. consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton came up with the “string of pearls” theory, which posits that China will try to expand its naval presence by building civilian maritime infrastructure along the Indian Ocean periphery. Its military use cannot be ruled out and India is not convinced with Chinese denial of using these ports for its military. China’s Maritime Silk Route is nothing but rehashed String of Pearls which will help it exercise influence in the Indian Ocean.

http://swarajyamag.com/world/sino-india-rivalry-in-the-indian-ocean/

[thaibeachlovers]

China would not be playing high stakes poker if she didn't calculate her adversaries would fold. Whether or not this proves to be the case I can certainly see how they might have arrived at such a conclusion.

I can't see any of the western powers standing up to China other than the US. But, isn't that why we still have nuclear weapons?

[Publicus]

The United States is establishing a chain of military bases with the P-3 Orion maritime surveillance aircraft to monitor China's activities in the South China Sea, says Duowei News, a US-based Chinese political news outlet.

Countries with the P-3 Orion in their arsenal include Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, Thailand and Taiwan, with Vietnam expected to join their ranks in the immediate future. Australian P-3s are expected to also fly out of Butterworth Air Field in Malaysia.

A Japanese P-3 Orion departs the Pearce Air Base on March 24, 2014 in Perth, Australia. (Photo/CFP

Admitting that Japan has the capability to project its naval force to the South China Sea, Admiral Li Jie of China's People's Liberation Army said Chinese warships also have the right to ram Japanese ships in the disputed region, according to the nationalistic Chinese tabloid Global Times.

The P-3C anti-submarine warfare aircraft, and E-2C and E-767 early warning aircraft of the Japan Self-Defense Forces can fly directly from Japan to the area, he said, while its KC-767J refueling aircraft can extend the operational range of fighters such as the F-15J and F-2. Japanese warships including the newly commissioned helicopter destroyer Izumo are perfectly designed for operations in the South China Sea, Li said.

US X-47B UCAV Replacing Piloted Fighter Aircraft in South China Sea

The X-47B has a range of 3,000 nautical miles, greater than that of the F/A-18 and F-35C fighter jets. UCAVs also don't need to worry about pilot fatigue as operators work in shifts and are easily substituted, meaning mission lengths can be extended to up to 50 hours. By comparison, fighter jets need to return to base, undergo maintenance and change pilots before they can take off again.

An unmanned US Navy X-47B undergoes a mid-air refueling test on April 22. (Photo/CFP)

UCAVs can also carry a wide range of ammunition, including the MK-84, GBU-31, BLU-109, MK-83, MK-82, GBU-32, GBU-103, GBU-104, GBU-105, AGM-114, AGM-65E, CBU-99, GBU-12, MK-82, MK-46/50/54, and so forth, making them extremely versatile and capable of carrying out missions over both sea and land as well as engaging in aerial combat. Importantly, the X-47B would allow US aircraft carriers to maintain a distance of more than 500 nautical miles off the coast of mainland China in an assault on Chinese territory, which is well beyond the range of any land to sea missile in the arsenal of what for the PLA is its most technologically advanced Second Artillery Force.

The PLA's DF-21D "carrier killer" ballistic missile with an estimated range of between 1000 to 1700 miles has been tested in China's western deserts and not ever against a moving ship at sea.

Here are the current analysis and evaluations by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff of the PLA's "carrier killer" ballistic missile, referencing the Doctrine of Air-Sea Battle adopted by the United States in 2010 for the specific purpose of defeating in war China, Iran, Russia....stated by Admiral Johathan Greenert in command of the USN, and General Mark A. Welsh, chief of USAF.

“AirSea Battle defeats threats to access by, fi rst, disrupting an adversary’s command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems; second, destroying adversary weapons launchers (including aircraft, ships, and missile sites); and finally, defeating the weapons an adversary launches,” they wrote.

They further noted that to succeed in attacking US forces, an enemy “must complete a sequence of actions, commonly referred to as a ‘kill chain.’ ” The enemy’s surveillance systems must locate US forces, its communications networks must relay targeting information to weapons launchers, weapons must be launched, and then they must home in on US forces.

“Each of these steps is vulnerable to interdiction or disruption, and because each step must work, our forces can focus on the weakest links in the chain, not each and every one,” the two service Chiefs pointed out.

Additionally Lt. Gen. Herbert J. Carlisle, when he was the Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations, plans, and requirements, testified to Congress that the Air Force has “taken [China’s] kill chains apart to the nth degree.” Carlisle is now a four-star general in command of Pacific Air Forces.

http://missilethreat.com/chinas-carrier-killer-threat-and-theatrics/

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1101&MainCatID=11&id=20150611000071

One of the problems with U.S. extended nuclear deterrence is that, although Europe may have gotten rusty on its nuclear strategy 101, U.S. allies in Asia never even got to touch the book. Since Europe was more important, East Asia only got the “leftovers” of U.S. capabilities and doctrine. But now it is clear that the Asian landscape is just as important, if not more, than Western Europe today, to the global strategic landscape. And nuclear weapons will have a role in containing the prospects for a conflict between China and the U.S.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/tactical-nuclear-weapons-and-deterrence/

[copa8]

I have no clue as to why Western powers buy one ggdddmmm thing from China, further propping up it's otherwise defunct economy. The countries it is threatening are all major buyers of its exports.

Put an additional 25% import tariff on everything it exports to drastically reduce its competitiveness. Leave that in place while announcing further increases over time to allow international companies to pull out of there and locate elsewhere including in the West. We give them jobs and manufacturing money just so they can turn around and threaten?

Next fly a couple of stealth bombers over and drop bunker busters on their projects and then follow with a couple more and then more. Then deny, deny, deny. Stealth means stealth.

Who in his right mind would threaten his only big export customers? Answer: The communists in Beijing aren't in their right minds.

The communists in Beijing are wily old strategists. They also have several millions of "citizens" placed around the globe, "innocently" baking bread, tending market gardens, and cooking egg foo yung for Western customers.

But then Washington also have millions of "expats" placed around the globe, "innocently" acting as overweight & bald retirees, sexpats, backpackers and internet forum posters spewing BS.

[sdanielmcev]

China cannot afford war with the U.S., nor does it have the national will to do it, or the technology. The U.S. is it's #1 trading partner, the U.S. would default all loans and debt and Chinas' economy would sink. So, China is only sabre-rattling. They need oil. And right now the U.S. is war weary. Would be smart for the U.S. to let this slide

[boomerangutang]

I think China resembles an overblown N.Korea more than it resembles Thailand.

China had a long bitter personality worship cult with Mao. Similar to what PDRK have been and are going through now. Similarly, China went through a long miserable time, just a few decades ago, with its Cultural Revolution and victimizing intellectuals and everyone with any creative ideas or free thinking - similar to what N.Korea is doing now. Same same for famines.

Thankfully, China came out of its miserable Mao years, and realigned it's worship of money to become the big money player it is now. It took Tibet easily, just by commiting some equipment and troops. It wants to take the Spratleys from Philippines, but as the article mentions, war is almost inevitable, or at least some military action. Trouble is, there's always suffering with military action. China's military is still low-tech, but it's so vast, that if it goes ape-shit, it can cause quite a bit of harm - particularly to non-military targets. If China were to face off with the US Navy, it doesn't have much of a prayer, unless it gets a lucky shot, like the Argentinians did with a Naval battle vs the Brits - but the Argies still wound up losing in a brief war, right on their doorstep.

Probably the least harmful outcome is a brief military vs military scuffle between the US and China, where China would lose, and China would then be forced to abandon their land grap of the Philippine islands. Unfortunately, I think it will be bloodier than that, and that civilians will get bloodied.

[NeverSure]

China cannot afford war with the U.S., nor does it have the national will to do it, or the technology. The U.S. is it's #1 trading partner, the U.S. would default all loans and debt and Chinas' economy would sink. So, China is only sabre-rattling. They need oil. And right now the U.S. is war weary. Would be smart for the U.S. to let this slide

That would be nice but the US can't let it slide. It has treaties to defend these Asian allies and that includes India. The US and India just renewed their treaty this past January. India is the most powerful democratic ally of the US. It is an enemy of China. India hates China.

The US will keep its commitments no matter how war weary. If China gets too far out of line IMHO and only IMHO we would see trade sanctions much like are against Russia. China doesn't have oil as Russia does but is a net importer. China relies heavily on the West for its export buyers aka money.

The US is now the world's #1 oil producer, achieving that in half the time that was predicted just five years ago. The US has more oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined. China has the world's largest population which amounts to 1.3 billion mouths for a communist country to feed, and China isn't tropical except in the extreme South and they need energy aka oil. Much of China's climate is Alpine and even sub-Arctic.

China is a net importer of food, unable to grow enough food for its people. A lack of money from a trade embargo and an unwillingness to sell would set China on it's heels. When China's Food Runs Out - Forbes

A little scratching below the surface shows just how vulnerable China is to economic, energy and food disruption. There's no need for a lot of military action atm but a few quick kicks to the groin just to show seriousness might not be a bad idea either. Maybe drop a few bunker busters on those new artificial islands from stealth bombers and simply deny it.

Edited June 13, 2015 by NeverSure

[Publicus]

First of all, we need to give proper attention to the CCP's strategy of creating a small high tech force inside its military. While the military in the PRChina is bloated, corrupt, disorganized because it's run by party hacks or regional war lords, incompetent, the small high tech elites such as the Second Artillery Corps (missiles) is high tech, efficient, well trained and led...just not so very high tech.

The small elite high tech land based PLA forces are confident they can black out US satellites and destroy US systems of command, communication, control etc (C4/SR), successfully conduct cyberwarfare and the like. Thing is, they probably can do at least some of these things to one extent or another. They certainly have been working towards this goal 24/7 for more than 20 years.

The recent US Doctrine of AirSea Battle is designed to counter and overcome this as it is a highly aggressive system of integrated warfare, from satellites to cyberwar to missiles, bombers, fighters, aircraft carriers, submarines and more, which includes penetrating coastal defenses into the deepest parts of China to destroy its missile bases far within. The entire strategy of the US armed forces is to successfully absorb the first blow and then to demolish the war capabilities of the People's Republic of China, which is precisely what would occur.

Because no one at all is talking about economic or financial sanctions, this SCS confrontation may well have to be settled by a small scale military clash. Each side is definitely willing and able to do that. For sure.

The CCP Boyz cannot be confident about this, however. Their attempts to take down the USAF Global Hawk recon drones over the Spratlys was a total failure. Beijing had been barking it could jam the Global Hawks but it could not (the Hawk guidance and control systems are designed to transform jamming into instructions to remain precisely on course).

The Boyz then said they could sever satellite communications with the Hawk but they could not. Then the Boyz said they could send up PLA Air Force fighters to shoot down the Hawks but never tried it. Finally, the Boyz said they could use cyberwarfare to take control of the Hawk's guidance and control systems inside the Hawk and, while classified reports remain classified, which means it's not clear whether this was attempted, no Hawks have gone missing, so one must conclude either that was not tried or it was tried and it also was a failure.

It's beginning to look like all this PLA high tech talk over several years now is not much more than blue smoke and mirrors from Beijing. The Boyz really have to be careful in this because their generations of much taught revanchism and irredentism to the population has created a broad, deep and fierce nationalism that, if the Boyz get burned in either the SCS by the US or in the East Sea vis-a-vis Japan, will hurt them profoundly with their own people at home. Really hurt them and severely.

It's been said and it's worth keeping in mind, that the only thing to fear more than a rising China is a falling China.

[NeverSure]

Looking solely at military would be what the man on the street was doing with the Soviet Union after WWII. How many times did school kids practice nuclear bomb drills in the classrooms? Yet the fall of the Soviet Union wasn't a military one, but an economic one. In 1991 it was officially finished but it was finished as to viability a long time before that. President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned and handed the keys to President Boris Yeltsin, declaring the Soviet Union dead.

As to bullying neighbors, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall". When Reagan arrived in Berlin, 50,000 W. Germans protested his visit and he made that speech from behind bullet proof glass.

As for those who had protested his visit, Reagan had this to say: "The wall cannot withstand freedom. I wonder if they have ever asked themselves that if they should have the kind of government they apparently seek, no-one would ever be able to do what they're doing again."

Reagan said: "General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate!"

"Mr Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall!

Left to its devices with a little help from the West, China will collapse of its own weight. It doesn't have oil as The USSR did, and it manufactures for its money at the pleasure of The West.

[JLCrab]

From Post #1: It knows there is oil in the Spratlys, otherwise it would not risk billions of dollars and war for the island chain.

From US Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2013:

Contested areas of South China Sea likely have few conventional oil and gas resources

Industry sources suggest almost no oil and less than 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves exist in fields near the Spratly Islands. The Paracel Island territory has even less natural gas and no oil.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10651

Edited June 13, 2015 by JLCrab

[Scott]

Off-topic post and reply removed.