Pension rapidly going down

[biplanebluey]

Hi Guys

Just wondering if any of you other guys out there are having the same problems as me. My NZ Pension has been pretty regular at around 25bt to the dollar for the last 8yrs and any problems have been universal and well known for short periods,but lately my rate of exchange (SCB) has dropped to last weeks 22.9 and now this week to21.8.Obviously this makes a hell of a drop in my pension.My friend from UK has had a raise in his rate of exchange---- anybody else having probs and do you know what the problem is.Thanks for any replies.Dougal

[samuibeachcomber]

Same with the aussie dollar,nothing you can do except tighten the belt.

[emilymat]

You have my sympathy - even though I from the UK.

The whole world of exchange rates is a mystery to most of us. It seems to have little to do with the economy of a country. For example, the UK has been bouncing back from the recession with continuous modest growth (that's what they tell us anyway,whereas Thailand seems to have been in the economic doldrums for the last year. Yet, it is only recently the pound as strengthened against the mighty baht. This could be because the UK has indicated that interest rates are likely to rise soon.

The irony is that when the UK pound strengthens, exporters start squealing and the government often then issue some negative statements and forecasts to dampen down the rise.

I don't know exactly, but posters on this forum in the past have indicated that exchange rates are greatly influenced by potential and actual interest rates rises and national debt.

I have no real idea about the NZ economy - has something been said by the NZ government?. Like the previous poster you have just got to hope NZ rate will recover.

These fluctuations of rates can drive us modest income expats crazy. That is why you have my understanding about the problem.

Not much help really but at least you know you are not alone.

[AyG]

Until recently Australia and New Zealand have had freakishly high interest rates. This has made the currencies attractive, keeping the exchange rate high. As interest rates have fallen, the currencies have become less attractive, so the exchange rate has fallen to reflect the lowered demand for the currency.

[i claudius]

When we came here 10 years ago the pound was at 71 baht and interest rates were 6% it went down to 44 to the pound ,i now work on 48 so anything over is a bonus ,

[fang37]

Even without the OAP, bring $$$ into LOS requires a lotta luck.

My whinge - I do not get the OAP.

If the sh.. hit the fan, I would need to return to Oz & wait 2 years to qualify. Thank you kindly, to the honorable member. Abode in Oz - Vinnies or the Salvos.

[jjczap]

Most of the central banks have been lowering interest rates in an attempt to devalue their currency to try to help their economy with exports. Thailand has not been aggressive in this area so the Baht has been staying relatively strong to the US dollar while the Euro Auz Nz dollar has dropped on avg 30% . For example my understanding in my readings is that the Auz gov wanted their dollar to drop to .75 of the US dollar to help with exports. Well they have achieved their goal but it continues to drop - 73 as of Friday - why 2 major reasons , 1 Auz has a major link to China with exports of minerals and the China economy is slowing with many thinking there will be a crisis 2 the US dollar continues to get stronger and when the US Fed Reserve starts to increase interest rates it will even get stronger -- so the reality is if the Baht stays relatively in line with the dollar there are many currencies that will buy fewer and fewer Baht -- sooo with these two trends the only hope for many is that the Thai gov consciously starts a program to lower the value of the Baht -- my belief is and I am betting on it that they will - the Thai exports continue to go down , in one year the Thai export product have become 30 % more expensive to the Euro zone and others - good luck out there - you just can't sit back and tighten the belt you have to understand whats happening out there and take action - I have advised many to go to the US dollar for many to late

[mickjn]

Even without the OAP, bring $$$ into LOS requires a lotta luck.

My whinge - I do not get the OAP.

If the sh.. hit the fan, I would need to return to Oz & wait 2 years to qualify. Thank you kindly, to the honorable member. Abode in Oz - Vinnies or the Salvos.

Go back for 2 years they will give you New Start.Greatest country in the world

[Pib]

A 20 Jul 15 news article NZ dollar finds support at 'Goldilocks' level of 65 US cents

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/currency/news/article.cfm?c_id=167&objectid=11483809

[beechguy]

You have my sympathy, but your pension hasn't gone down, you just aren't getting as many Baht as you used to. I see remarks on a regular basis, as how the GBP used to be 70 Baht, or for the U.S. dollar near 50 Baht. Most of those rates were not long after the 1997 crash.But only an idiot would move here, expecting those rates to last forever.

[emilymat]

You have my sympathy, but your pension hasn't gone down, you just aren't getting as many Baht as you used to. I see remarks on a regular basis, as how the GBP used to be 70 Baht, or for the U.S. dollar near 50 Baht. Most of those rates were not long after the 1997 crash.But only an idiot would move here, expecting those rates to last forever.

I can't speak for the dollar but the pound was at 90 baht for a short time in 1997 period.

I moved here in 2006 and it was 71 - so that was 9 years after the Asia crash. The fall in value of the pound from 70 plus followed almost exactly the un winding of the calamity of the banking crash in the west.

Anyway, as you say, we are where we are. I think all most people would ask for is stability of the rates, not the yo-yo we have experienced recently.

[IMA_FARANG]

I don't think it has any chance of happening.... but if Cameroun does have a referendum and by some off chance the U.K. votes against staying in the

Eurozone... which as I said I see no chance of happening ... then you will see the pound dropping against the Baht as the Eurozone goes into a

frenzy about the future of the Euro.

I admit, I would personally like to see that happen.... but I doubt that

it ever will.

But I would LOVE to see the U.K. reject staying in the Eurozone in 2017...but I just don't see a chance of it happening.

To much to hope for.

[jjczap]

Most of the central banks have been lowering interest rates in an attempt to devalue their currency to try to help their economy with exports. Thailand has not been aggressive in this area so the Baht has been staying relatively strong to the US dollar while the Euro Auz Nz dollar has dropped on avg 30% . For example my understanding in my readings is that the Auz gov wanted their dollar to drop to .75 of the US dollar to help with exports. Well they have achieved their goal but it continues to drop - 73 as of Friday - why 2 major reasons , 1 Auz has a major link to China with exports of minerals and the China economy is slowing with many thinking there will be a crisis 2 the US dollar continues to get stronger and when the US Fed Reserve starts to increase interest rates it will even get stronger -- so the reality is if the Baht stays relatively in line with the dollar there are many currencies that will buy fewer and fewer Baht -- sooo with these two trends the only hope for many is that the Thai gov consciously starts a program to lower the value of the Baht -- my belief is and I am betting on it that they will - the Thai exports continue to go down , in one year the Thai export product have become 30 % more expensive to the Euro zone and others - good luck out there - you just can't sit back and tighten the belt you have to understand whats happening out there and take action - I have advised many to go to the US dollar for many to late

an add on to my comments - a very very good read as to the financial worlds view on the NZ and AUZ dollar - Auz and NZ number one export customer is China , Auz with iron ore and NZ with dairy both products declining in price and China slowing down - looks like NZ central bank will continue to lower interest pushing their dollar lower - 60 to the US dollar ??!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/20/commodity-currencies-in-decline.html

[jjczap]

Most of the central banks have been lowering interest rates in an attempt to devalue their currency to try to help their economy with exports. Thailand has not been aggressive in this area so the Baht has been staying relatively strong to the US dollar while the Euro Auz Nz dollar has dropped on avg 30% . For example my understanding in my readings is that the Auz gov wanted their dollar to drop to .75 of the US dollar to help with exports. Well they have achieved their goal but it continues to drop - 73 as of Friday - why 2 major reasons , 1 Auz has a major link to China with exports of minerals and the China economy is slowing with many thinking there will be a crisis 2 the US dollar continues to get stronger and when the US Fed Reserve starts to increase interest rates it will even get stronger -- so the reality is if the Baht stays relatively in line with the dollar there are many currencies that will buy fewer and fewer Baht -- sooo with these two trends the only hope for many is that the Thai gov consciously starts a program to lower the value of the Baht -- my belief is and I am betting on it that they will - the Thai exports continue to go down , in one year the Thai export product have become 30 % more expensive to the Euro zone and others - good luck out there - you just can't sit back and tighten the belt you have to understand whats happening out there and take action - I have advised many to go to the US dollar for many to late

an add on to my comments - a very very good read as to the financial worlds view on the NZ and AUZ dollar - Auz and NZ number one export customer is China , Auz with iron ore and NZ with dairy both products declining in price and China slowing down - looks like NZ central bank will continue to lower interest pushing their dollar lower - 60 to the US dollar ??!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/20/commodity-currencies-in-decline.html

it appears we are heeded thru another cycle -- is it another Asian financial crisis , a China crises or something new -- look at the chart -- the pound is another story but for everyone else you are tied to the dollar - pay attention --

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/this-dollar-chart-means-bad-news-for-emerging-markets

[Brit_Doggie]

Get used to it life is full of ups and downs i don't see anyone cheering when it the opposite.

[JockPieandBeans]

I don't think it has any chance of happening.... but if Cameroun does have a referendum and by some off chance the U.K. votes against staying in the

Eurozone... which as I said I see no chance of happening ... then you will see the pound dropping against the Baht as the Eurozone goes into a

frenzy about the future of the Euro.

I admit, I would personally like to see that happen.... but I doubt that

it ever will.

But I would LOVE to see the U.K. reject staying in the Eurozone in 2017...but I just don't see a chance of it happening.

To much to hope for.

Is it possible that you could expand on the part that I have highlighted ?

IMO if the UK votes to leave the EU, it would be the Euro that would go into freefall as its very existence would be in serious doubt following the withdrawal of 1 of the major Net Contributors.

I believe that the demise of the Euro / EU would only strengthen the £ Sterling.

[jjczap]

Get used to it life is full of ups and downs i don't see anyone cheering when it the opposite.

get used to it !! well I would love for you to tell that to our Auz andNZ friends and even some of our Euro buddies that have taken a 30 to 40% hit on currency exchange that now cannot meet the retirement visa requirements -- get used to it - I know many and now they are looking to visa agents at 25000 baht to cover their retirement visa requirements - get used to it

[CaptHaddock]

As Hyman Roth explained so movingly to the young Michael Corleone, "This is the life we have chosen." As an expat with assets/pension in one currency and liabilities in another we are always at the mercy of exchange rates. We have always known about the danger than inflation could pose to retirement income over time. But as voluntary expats we have chosen to accept exchange rate risk, which as we have seen, is, in fact, much higher than inflation. The only way to eliminate that risk is to move all your assets into Thai baht, but only a madman would do that. The other alternative is to move to a country with a better exchange rate, but that sounds like too strenuous a plan for aging pensioners. At the moment, it's the Canadians, Aussies, and Kiwis who are taking it in the ear, while the Brits and Americans are sitting pretty, but the wheel can turn.

[billd766]

When we came here 10 years ago the pound was at 71 baht and interest rates were 6% it went down to 44 to the pound ,i now work on 48 so anything over is a bonus ,

Here is a link that might amuse/send you into despair. It works on most currencies against others going back to 1953 so you can even use it as a check on your memories. I have it set to GBP/THB but you can play with it to your hearts content.

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1999&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=31&MM2=12&YYYY2=1999&btnOK=Go!

[beechguy]

Get used to it life is full of ups and downs i don't see anyone cheering when it the opposite.

get used to it !! well I would love for you to tell that to our Auz andNZ friends and even some of our Euro buddies that have taken a 30 to 40% hit on currency exchange that now cannot meet the retirement visa requirements -- get used to it - I know many and now they are looking to visa agents at 25000 baht to cover their retirement visa requirements - get used to it

30%-40% hit, as opposed to the 50% gain they made after the 97 crash. What do you want to use as base line? Use the chart billd766 posted. It's unfortunate, but again, if anyone thinks there can't be drastic changes in rates, they need to stay home.

Edited July 25, 2015 by beechguy

[jjczap]

Get used to it life is full of ups and downs i don't see anyone cheering when it the opposite.

get used to it !! well I would love for you to tell that to our Auz andNZ friends and even some of our Euro buddies that have taken a 30 to 40% hit on currency exchange that now cannot meet the retirement visa requirements -- get used to it - I know many and now they are looking to visa agents at 25000 baht to cover their retirement visa requirements - get used to it

30%-40% hit, as opposed to the 50% gain they made after the 97 crash. What do you want to use as base line? Use the chart billd766 posted. It's unfortunate, but again, if anyone thinks there can't be drastic changes in rates, they need to stay home.

you know I agree with you in a way- the thread started with hey what's going on? I attempted to educate by sharing what's going on in the world with a few articles and comments " protect yourself " - but as usual it turns negative -- never mind trying to help -- your comment of " they need to stay home " shows the way your mind works - did you ever think some came here because they could not afford to live at home ? - but maybe there are those out there that need some help in understanding whats going on in their journey - to help them understand

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Until recently Australia and New Zealand have had freakishly high interest rates. This has made the currencies attractive, keeping the exchange rate high. As interest rates have fallen, the currencies have become less attractive, so the exchange rate has fallen to reflect the lowered demand for the currency.

[beechguy]

Get used to it life is full of ups and downs i don't see anyone cheering when it the opposite.

get used to it !! well I would love for you to tell that to our Auz andNZ friends and even some of our Euro buddies that have taken a 30 to 40% hit on currency exchange that now cannot meet the retirement visa requirements -- get used to it - I know many and now they are looking to visa agents at 25000 baht to cover their retirement visa requirements - get used to it

30%-40% hit, as opposed to the 50% gain they made after the 97 crash. What do you want to use as base line? Use the chart billd766 posted. It's unfortunate, but again, if anyone thinks there can't be drastic changes in rates, they need to stay home.

you know I agree with you in a way- the thread started with hey what's going on? I attempted to educate by sharing what's going on in the world with a few articles and comments " protect yourself " - but as usual it turns negative -- never mind trying to help -- your comment of " they need to stay home " shows the way your mind works - did you ever think some came here because they could not afford to live at home ? - but maybe there are those out there that need some help in understanding whats going on in their journey - to help them understand

Very well, they should get a job, or some other means to increase their income. How's that for helpful.

I'm well aware that people are here for a number of reasons, but ignoring reality isn't helpful. As I said, use that chart that was provided, and use a 30 year period. Most will see their home currency gained considerable strength at the 97 crash, and has slowly weakened since the peak. If one moved here expecting to maintain a reasonable exchange, my comment is reasonable compared to what? Again, if someone is too ignorant to examine that, then perhaps they have endangered their economic future.

Edited July 25, 2015 by beechguy

[Paul1952]

UK expats that I have dealt with who have UK pensions put them into a QROPS denominated in the local currency which removes the exchange rate risk but I don't know if you can do that with yours if it is already in payment. Other than that I agree there is not much you can do except dabble in the FOREX market which is difficult.

[MaeJoMTB]

UK expats that I have dealt with who have UK pensions put them into a QROPS denominated in the local currency which removes the exchange rate risk but I don't know if you can do that with yours if it is already in payment. Other than that I agree there is not much you can do except dabble in the FOREX market which is difficult.

They no longer have to worry about exchange rates, as all their money has been scammed from them.

Surprised all the crooks who persuaded pensioners to move money into QROPS aren't in jail.

If there were a God they would all be struck dead.

[i claudius]

You have my sympathy, but your pension hasn't gone down, you just aren't getting as many Baht as you used to. I see remarks on a regular basis, as how the GBP used to be 70 Baht, or for the U.S. dollar near 50 Baht. Most of those rates were not long after the 1997 crash.But only an idiot would move here, expecting those rates to last forever.

I do not wish to be rude but you are the idiot for saying that ,when we came back here it was nearly 10 years after the crash ,so it was nothing to do with that ,check before you post i suggest .

[beechguy]

You have my sympathy, but your pension hasn't gone down, you just aren't getting as many Baht as you used to. I see remarks on a regular basis, as how the GBP used to be 70 Baht, or for the U.S. dollar near 50 Baht. Most of those rates were not long after the 1997 crash. But only an idiot would move here, expecting those rates to last forever.

I do not wish to be rude but you are the idiot for saying that ,when we came back here it was nearly 10 years after the crash ,so it was nothing to do with that ,check before you post i suggest .

Oh, so you are saying Thailand owes everyone a favorable exchange rate indefinitely? As I said in a later post, referencing another poster's chart(billd766, post #19), exchange rates change, get over it.

Actually, you would be the idiot, thinking that 10 years is a long time, after a major economic event like the 97 crash. Review some economic history, even current issues. You don't think the world is still affected by 2007/08 U.S. recession?

Perhaps you would benefit from checking, before running your mouth fingers on the keyboard.

Edited August 15, 2015 by beechguy

[i claudius]

You have my sympathy, but your pension hasn't gone down, you just aren't getting as many Baht as you used to. I see remarks on a regular basis, as how the GBP used to be 70 Baht, or for the U.S. dollar near 50 Baht. Most of those rates were not long after the 1997 crash. But only an idiot would move here, expecting those rates to last forever.

I do not wish to be rude but you are the idiot for saying that ,when we came back here it was nearly 10 years after the crash ,so it was nothing to do with that ,check before you post i suggest .

Oh, so you are saying Thailand owes everyone a favorable exchange rate indefinitely? As I said in a later post, referencing another poster's chart(billd766, post #19), exchange rates change, get over it.

Actually, you would be the idiot, thinking that 10 years is a long time, after a major economic event like the 97 crash. Review some economic history, even current issues. You don't think the world is still affected by 2007/08 U.S. recession?

Perhaps you would benefit from checking, before running your mouth fingers on the keyboard.

Sorry if you cant take it ,but i think i am nearer the truth than you anyway i dont need 70 to live here ,i work on 48 have done for years , but hey ho .

[beechguy]

You have my sympathy, but your pension hasn't gone down, you just aren't getting as many Baht as you used to. I see remarks on a regular basis, as how the GBP used to be 70 Baht, or for the U.S. dollar near 50 Baht. Most of those rates were not long after the 1997 crash. But only an idiot would move here, expecting those rates to last forever.

I do not wish to be rude but you are the idiot for saying that ,when we came back here it was nearly 10 years after the crash ,so it was nothing to do with that ,check before you post i suggest .

Oh, so you are saying Thailand owes everyone a favorable exchange rate indefinitely? As I said in a later post, referencing another poster's chart(billd766, post #19), exchange rates change, get over it.

Actually, you would be the idiot, thinking that 10 years is a long time, after a major economic event like the 97 crash. Review some economic history, even current issues. You don't think the world is still affected by 2007/08 U.S. recession?

Perhaps you would benefit from checking, before running your mouth fingers on the keyboard.

Sorry if you cant take it ,but i think i am nearer the truth than you anyway i dont need 70 to live here ,i work on 48 have done for years , but hey ho .

Oh, I take it just fine. You are entitled to your opinion, and if you want to argue with years of historical FX data, knock yourself out.

[RasiMike]

There are a number of Oz / NZ business people and government members rubbing their hands together over their dropping $ and are keenly looking forward to a rate at or below 70 US cents.

I'm not convinced it is a good thing as, like other TV members, I have a vested interest in the exchange rates due to 'Thai ties'. To top that off, manufacturing of essential goods has ceased in my home country so the cost of living/retiring is increasing no matter where I find myself later on. ....This year I'd better plant some more fruit trees and build a couple more frog ponds to offset my losses.