Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$

[Thailaw]

Holding pretty steady at 36.10 since 6am BST. Down we go.......

Super Rich in Bangkok, which generally offers the best paper transaction exchange rates, has the UD$/THB exchange rate at:

Buying Selling

USD 100 36.15 36.18

GBP 50 55.40 55.55

EUR 500-100 40.40 40.55

What is curious is the unusually narrow spread (3 Satang) b/t the buy and sell rates for the Dollar, which suggests, I think, that Super Rich (or the market more generally) sees less risk of Dollar depreciation (i.e., volatility on the downside) against the Baht (and more exchange volume, as people move out of the Baht), at least in the near term.

[Chivas]

Bouncing around 36.20 currently Interbank

[Rocketsurgeon]

34.5 end 3rd Q?

Ill take that bet. In a few days perhaps thb will hit 36.5 if it keeps falling as it has recently.

Then it needs to strengthen 2 full baht by end of September? Lol.

[stament]

Creeping up to 36, on the 35.90 mark according to xe.com

Will it go back above the magic 36 mark and towards the high of 36.5 we saw last month before the year end?

Jobs market in US appears to be the reason for this surge as the market didnt expect such good numbers. Now it appears the markets are anticipating a rate rise soon, according to my very naive and non-expert take on it.

What do the experts say?

[sandyf]

Creeping up to 36, on the 35.90 mark according to xe.com

Will it go back above the magic 36 mark and towards the high of 36.5 we saw last month before the year end?

Jobs market in US appears to be the reason for this surge as the market didnt expect such good numbers. Now it appears the markets are anticipating a rate rise soon, according to my very naive and non-expert take on it.

What do the experts say?

Very unlikely, back in September when the rate was well over 36 the dollar index was about 96. Since then the dollar index has surged to 99 but the rate has remained below the 36 mark. The pound has not done so well and taken a severe knock from the strengthening of the dollar.

I think it would take further intervention by the BOT to prop up the baht to make any significant change against the dollar.

[Berkshire]

Creeping up to 36, on the 35.90 mark according to xe.com

Will it go back above the magic 36 mark and towards the high of 36.5 we saw last month before the year end?

Jobs market in US appears to be the reason for this surge as the market didnt expect such good numbers. Now it appears the markets are anticipating a rate rise soon, according to my very naive and non-expert take on it.

What do the experts say?

My sentiments exactly, regarding recent job numbers. The USD may just keep rising in anticipation, but when the interest rate hike actually happens, it may just stabilize a bit and possibly even dip a tad. Then it should slowly build momentum again. But if the feds somehow decide not to raise rates....all bets are off.

[SunLover2]

Creeping up to 36, on the 35.90 mark according to xe.com

Will it go back above the magic 36 mark and towards the high of 36.5 we saw last month before the year end?

Jobs market in US appears to be the reason for this surge as the market didnt expect such good numbers. Now it appears the markets are anticipating a rate rise soon, according to my very naive and non-expert take on it.

The October report of 271,000 jobs was an outlier. September was only 142,000 jobs. Average the two months and you get a better read. But the Fed will take the opportunity and raise short term rates by 25 basis points, which is something they should have done already.

The dollar index gives a false read for individual currencies. Countries with natural resource based economies are more volatile. The Baht is relatively thinly traded and can be more influenced short term by BOT policy.

That said - I would see a continued creep up, and once the US interest rate increase takes place in December the x-rate settling around ~36.50b at year end. And my guess is as good as yours.

SL

[stament]

closed 35.88

[Langsuan Man]

[stament]

nearly 36 on xe now

Is it ever possible to get a rate higher than what is on xe or beat superich by say negotiating a rate if you are transferring a quit large sum say USD 25,000?

[stament]

Whoops, just realised that was off topic, Mods feel,free to delete

[Naam]

nearly 36 on xe now

Is it ever possible to get a rate higher than what is on xe or beat superich by say negotiating a rate if you are transferring a quit large sum say USD 25,000?

$25k is not a large sum that you get a phone call from your bank enabling you to negotiate a few Satangs. that starts with $/€ 50k when you are with Siam Commercial or Kasikorn. don't know how other banks are handling this.

addendum: xe and superrich are irrelevant. your bank's TT rate applies:

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

[stament]

I meant I could just go to superich with cash and get the better rate

[chiang mai]

But you need to deduct from your "better rate" the cost of getting hit over the head and relieved of your USD 25 K, then see if it's still a better deal!

[Naam]

hmmm... 35.11

[Langsuan Man]

hmmm... 35.11

Or 35.10 per Bangkok Bank

http://www.bangkokbank.com/BANGKOKBANK/WEBSERVICES/RATES/Pages/FX_Rates.aspx

[sandyf]

Now that Yellen mentioned negative rates the dollar may be in for a rough ride, and hopefully stop the slide on the pound.

[chiang mai]

Now that Yellen mentioned negative rates the dollar may be in for a rough ride, and hopefully stop the slide on the pound.

Markets think the first interest rate rise for the Pound is pushed back to 2019.

[sandyf]

Now that Yellen mentioned negative rates the dollar may be in for a rough ride, and hopefully stop the slide on the pound.

Markets think the first interest rate rise for the Pound is pushed back to 2019.

Six months ago the pound was about 1.58 and a fortnight ago it hit 1.41, probably a lot to do with the swing in the opinion polls for the referendum.

Historically, when the dollar drops the pound rises so hopefully the USD will come to the rescue, the opinion polls are likely to get worse before they get better.

Pound risen to 1.44 in the last few days as the dollar has weakened.

If there is no improvement I will be back on a marriage extension this year.

[Naam]

Siam Commercial TT rate 34.93

[sandmike]

Smile they said, things could be worse ...

BKK historical TT rates USD/baht from my records ...

Today 14/03/2016 - 34.9

11/03/2015 - 32.72

23/03/2014 - 32.28

13/03/2013 - 29.45

13/03/2012 - 30.48

Things could be a lot worse ....

Keep smiling !!

[sandmike]

^ should say Bangkok Bank ...

[stament]

any expert views on where its likely to go over the next month or so? Also the Gbp re brexit? what are we likely to see?