chiang mai Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 (edited) "Now I have made my prediction, that should serve as a suitable cue for a sudden surge in the baht's strength to unprecedented levels". Edited August 16, 2015 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Of course the second anyone makes a forex forecast, based on the facts of the day, be they for or against a stronger/weaker baht, along comes something like last nights bomb in Bangkok which potentially changes the entire landscape. Why, because it adds a level of uncertainty that we haven't seen here on this scale before and the impact on tourism is likely to be substantial, as such, 55 was yesterdays bet, goodness only knows what tomorrows will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Of course the second anyone makes a forex forecast, based on the facts of the day, be they for or against a stronger/weaker baht, along comes something like last nights bomb in Bangkok which potentially changes the entire landscape. Why, because it adds a level of uncertainty that we haven't seen here on this scale before and the impact on tourism is likely to be substantial, as such, 55 was yesterdays bet, goodness only knows what tomorrows will be. Very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It's pretty close to, if not already at the bottom, you'd be silly not to buy at around 55. Not sure I agree with this CM. It might be the case, but I think that although the pound could well weaken against similar currencies, the baht might be due for a major fall all of itself. That's cool. What do you think will be the catalyst for the bahts fall, exports? perhaps the sheer volume of daily bedtime prayers by expats in Thailand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It's pretty close to, if not already at the bottom, you'd be silly not to buy at around 55. Not sure I agree with this CM. It might be the case, but I think that although the pound could well weaken against similar currencies, the baht might be due for a major fall all of itself. That's cool. What do you think will be the catalyst for the bahts fall, exports? perhaps the sheer volume of daily bedtime prayers by expats in Thailand? I dont think many of us pray for people to die ,just to get a few baht more ,do you Naam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rwdrwdrwd Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 (edited) We hit the 6 year high, next step above 57.11 for the 7 year Not only due to BKK bomb, £ shot up against the $ today as well, breaking through a resistance level it's been hitting repeatedly for the last couple of months. Think we could see $1.60 within the next month, and perhaps 60 baht Edited August 18, 2015 by rwdrwdrwd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We hit the 6 year high, next step above 57.11 for the 7 year Not only due to BKK bomb, £ shot up against the $ today as well, breaking through a resistance level it's been hitting repeatedly for the last couple of months. Think we could see $1.60 within the next month, and perhaps 60 baht Cant argue with any of that. Sterling is not exactly rising with any strength just a case of the Baht further weakening against the Greenback and I suspect 36 will breach soon..... Sterling at $1.60 and Baht/Dollar at 36 and we are riding nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Decisions decisions, send gbp now or hold off a month or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Decisions decisions, send gbp now or hold off a month or so? Same here ,i dont need any money for a few months , the experts are a waste of time they never agree , mind you watching bloomberg yesterday Thai baht is one of the top 10 currencies in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 "A bird in the hand..." "He who hesitates is ..." "Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today...." and so on Honestly, 55 is a great buy for Sterling, sure you might get 56 or 57 but I seriously doubt you'll see 60. Soooo, how greedy do you want to be, "are you feeling lucky..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rwdrwdrwd Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I did my transfer at 55.3 - bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Can see it going to 60 in the next month or two, but equally can see it retreating back down to around 52. Longer term I think it will get to 60 again, but I don't transfer long term funds to Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 CM has a point. Part of the reason the exchange rate is rising is because the pound is overly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 CM has a point. Part of the reason the exchange rate is rising is because the pound is overly strong. Some of you Guys amaze me. The Exchange rate wich has moved nicely in our favour has had bugger all to do with Sterling which is Bouncing around the level its been for some time. Its purely down to the Baht declining against the Dollar nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rwdrwdrwd Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 (edited) Not sure that is strictly true, the £ has made recent gains against the $ as well - up 6.5% since April, and just broken through resistance that is has been bouncing off for the last 6 weeks. Edited August 19, 2015 by rwdrwdrwd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 FWIW I transferred some at 54.6, again at 55.10 and will do so again at around 55.5, (any time real soon), I consider anything over 53 to be a real bonus. But I'm here for the long term hence all of this is spending money that I will need at some point so maybe not the right strategy for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Not sure that is strictly true, the £ has made recent gains against the $ as well - up 6.5% since April, and just broken through resistance that is has been bouncing off for the last 6 weeks. Ok its up since April but by the same token down 15 Cents on a Year or so ago. I think a lot of people cant grasp there is no direct exchange rate with the Baht and therein lies the problem. (not you) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 FWIW I transferred some at 54.6, again at 55.10 and will do so again at around 55.5, (any time real soon), I consider anything over 53 to be a real bonus. But I'm here for the long term hence all of this is spending money that I will need at some point so maybe not the right strategy for everyone. Is there any real advantage in transferring three separate times if you are clocking up fees on each transfer? I mean how much are you transferring each time and what are the charges you are incurring each time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 (edited) FWIW I transferred some at 54.6, again at 55.10 and will do so again at around 55.5, (any time real soon), I consider anything over 53 to be a real bonus. But I'm here for the long term hence all of this is spending money that I will need at some point so maybe not the right strategy for everyone. Is there any real advantage in transferring three separate times if you are clocking up fees on each transfer? I mean how much are you transferring each time and what are the charges you are incurring each time? I typically transfer GBP 10k each time, it costs me GBP 4 for the UK end of the transfer (HSBC) and about GBP 8 for the Thai receiving end (UOB) . I've made quite a lot of money over the years from transferring backwards and forwards when the rate swings either way hence keeping a record of the rate is important. The funds I just brought in at 55.10 were part of a tranche that went out at 48.07 in early April. I find I have to have a target exchange rate art which I'm going to execute a trade otherwise I' would just sit on the money and wait for the rate to get even better and of course, it doesn't always do that, that's why I know I will transfer again at 55.5. Edited August 19, 2015 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Makes sense nice option if you have the money to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 CM has a point. Part of the reason the exchange rate is rising is because the pound is overly strong. Some of you Guys amaze me. The Exchange rate wich has moved nicely in our favour has had bugger all to do with Sterling which is Bouncing around the level its been for some time. Its purely down to the Baht declining against the Dollar nothing else. Glad I amaze someone, but what I said is true ! The pound is gaining against the dollar, which itself is regarded as being very strong at present.. The baht on the other hand is weakening against the dollar. So there are 2 aspects, possibly 3 because the baht's decline is not entirely a result of a strong dollar. As poster Einstein once said " It's all relative". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 +1 GBP/USD, 1.48 in March, now pushing 1.57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 +1 GBP/USD, 1.48 in March, now pushing 1.57. -1 GBP/USD 1.71 in July 2014 now pushing 1.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 +1 GBP/USD, 1.48 in March, now pushing 1.57. -1 GBP/USD 1.71 in July 2014 now pushing 1.57 I take it you now accept that the inherent value of the pound (strong or not) is at least a factor when comparing it with another currency. ? The contention that the pound is strong is the general media message. I get most of my info. from Telegraph, BBC, and sometimes Bloomberg. Yes, you are right it is just at about average value against the dollar, but the dollar is extremely strong at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 (edited) +1 GBP/USD, 1.48 in March, now pushing 1.57. -1 GBP/USD 1.71 in July 2014 now pushing 1.57 ++1 1.55 Aug 2013! So what, currencies move in cycles and waves. I think if you talk to most people who know their stuff on this subject you'll find that a 200 moving average is the only real indicator that's useful for determining trend, on that basis GBP is strengthening. Edited August 20, 2015 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandyf Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 +1 GBP/USD, 1.48 in March, now pushing 1.57. -1 GBP/USD 1.71 in July 2014 now pushing 1.57 Yes, you are right it is just at about average value against the dollar, but the dollar is extremely strong at the moment. "Meanwhile, the prospects of a Fed delay have implications for other markets as well, with the U.S. dollar, which has soared since mid-2014 on rate-hike expectations, setting back, while gold futures rebounded sharply after weeks of heavy selling that drove the yellow metal to a six-year low." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Thought this was about the gbp vs baht not dollars or gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Do we see the gbp breaking through the 56 or 60 barriers soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 A break through 56 is possible but I suspect if it does so it wont go very far. The reason I think that is because recent UK retail figures were a disappointment and much of UK economic growth depends on consumer spending. I can't imagine it getting to 60 but as they say, we live in interesting (and very unusual) times. RE WHY USD: There's a relationship between USD and THB that is formal because of exports and reserve currency status. The relationship between GBP and THB is more casual and consequential. Understanding what's happening with USD therefore provides clues to the value of GBP/THB, the remaining link is then, where is the UK economy headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Do we see the gbp breaking through the 56 or 60 barriers soon? any time from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loppylugs1 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 Interest rate rise (UK US) will see a sharp spike in those two countries currencies,and not far in coming either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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