SURVEY: Are the recent attacks in Bangkok a harbinger of a new and dangerous chapter in Thailand?

[dontoearth]

I realize many who post on ThaiVisa Forum are farang living in Thailand. I will follow this thread all week. I am retiring next year and was going to spend 6 months living in Thailand. I have been spending 3 months a year and a few long sabbaticals since 1989 in Bangkok. A great place to visit and a good country to use a base while u see all of S.E.Asia. Frankly, I am having second thoughts. It will be interesting to see how the next 9 months of so play out before I have to make my trip. Or not! This is a great forum to get a bird's eye view of what people are thinking. So post and vote on.....

[arjunadawn]

Yes, by definition this last event represent an evolution of such acts in Thailand; this was a different bombmaker than the past, and more sophisticated. In the lager context (of possible concern) the ISIS shift to SE Asia has long been known and feared and detected by intel agencies from Perth to Singapore to Malay to Indo to India.

[billd766]

I guess we know who the real perps are. The lack of acknowledgement of responsibility is disturbing.

No, we don't know who the perps are.

Please enlighten us all, great knowing one.

[Credo]

I think people are being thrown off by the fact that no group has taken responsibility. This may very well have been a practice run for larger events and as such, the group might not want to make it's existence known. Thailand is a military gov't and they can make free movement quite difficult.

I think it will be a while; a matter of months, and then there will be more and possibly bigger events.

These people slipped in and slipped out of the country with relative ease. They got materials, assembled bombs and detonated them with out alerting anyone to what was going on.

This takes some patience, planning and a fair amount of money to finance.

[JAG]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

[LarryBird]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

Virtually impossible? The person who did it is still on the loose.

I'm curious why you think learning about who actually did it, changes the opinion of whether it will happen again.

[arjunadawn]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

Wrong!

[arjunadawn]

Another ridiculous poll. NOBODY casting a vote has any facts, only information the media is releasing.

What FACTS do you want?

I have 3 facts:

A bomb exploded.

20 people died.

The person who did this hasn't been caught.

The poll isn't asking who did it... In which case, I would agree, I think all of the speculation has been useless.

I do not agree all the speculation is useless. Across wide swaths of the internet a sense of things can be crowd sourced from collective self evidence noted in various threads and posts online. It is abundantly clear what people are not primarily suggesting as the cause/culprit. This single point is of value. So, it may not be widely held who has done this but its palpably clear (or unclear) who has not likely done it. In Thailand, this is noteworthy.

[JHolmesJr]

You can't rule out this ever happening again....i think the erawan incident was one where the public got off lightly....now that it has been proved how easy it is, I fear it may attract attention from others who seek to exploit such weaknesses.....after all if you wanna take out a whole bunch of farangs in asia, you could not ask for a better place than bangkok and pattaya...all those temple gazers and culture vultures

[chrisinth]

Until the reasons for the two events are known, we don't know.

Until the people responsible are identified, we don't know.

Any speculation that this indicates an increase in (what????) in Thailand with the information available to the public at present would be unfounded.

Sad to say, the events could have been anything from a full scale terrorist attack to amateur night gone horribly wrong inclusive of everything in between.

Reasons why i voted No in the poll.

[Jingthing]

Amateur night? Give us a break. The bomb was very sophisticated.

[mauGR1]

I did not vote, i just don't have a clue.

It just feels bad, very bad.

[chrisinth]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

Virtually impossible? The person who did it is still on the loose.

I'm curious why you think learning about who actually did it, changes the opinion of whether it will happen again.

I agree with what JAG is saying here. There are a lot of seriously messed up people in this world supporting guided/misguided causes who would be capable of doing what was done.

But even the most seriously damaged of them generally do not pick a country and carry out an atrocity like this without a reason.

Alas, there are others who believe they are doing good by their actions without authorization from the people they believe they are supporting. In a world of danger, these are the most dangerous and will be the most difficult to catch for any police force if they remain silent.

Find the reason, ID the people responsible and carry out a re-poll

[Thailand]

This crazy world we are living in seems to be getting worse not better,we don't seem to learn.

As we are supposed to be the most intelligent life forms on the planet we are making an almighty hash of it.

I sincerely hope that this is the last of it but in my heart I fear it is not.

[Jingthing]

Polls here are presented for discussion purposes only and are never represent scientific polling.

[chrisinth]

Amateur night? Give us a break. The bomb was very sophisticated.

The bombs are being reported as pipe bombs. Pipe bombs are not sophisticated when it comes to explosive devices. The authorities have stated that the shrine one was detonated on a timer, not remotely detonated. The only difference to previous devices used in Thailand is that they were enhanced with ball bearings instead of the normal scrap metal and nails.

This is going by what has been reported up until now. If it was a pipe bomb, then it was not very sophisticated.

[RJF]

I realize many who post on ThaiVisa Forum are farang living in Thailand. I will follow this thread all week. I am retiring next year and was going to spend 6 months living in Thailand. I have been spending 3 months a year and a few long sabbaticals since 1989 in Bangkok. A great place to visit and a good country to use a base while u see all of S.E.Asia. Frankly, I am having second thoughts. It will be interesting to see how the next 9 months of so play out before I have to make my trip. Or not! This is a great forum to get a bird's eye view of what people are thinking. So post and vote on.....

No, ThaiVisa is really a forum for highly cynical expats who seem mainly concerned with local beer prices and temporary bar closures. I would definitely not base my decisions on what I read on ThaiVisa. That said, some of the comments here are absolutely gold and personally I enjoy the sarcasm and dry humor flying around. Just put it all in perspective.

[RJF]

Amateur night? Give us a break. The bomb was very sophisticated.

The bombs are being reported as pipe bombs. Pipe bombs are not sophisticated when it comes to explosive devices. The authorities have stated that the shrine one was detonated on a timer, not remotely detonated. The only difference to previous devices used in Thailand is that they were enhanced with ball bearings instead of the normal scrap metal and nails.

This is going by what has been reported up until now. If it was a pipe bomb, then it was not very sophisticated.

Sophisticated enough to kill 20 innocent people and injure over a hundred. In your expert opinion, what should deaths/injuries add up to before you'd refer to a bomb as 'sophisticated'?

[ToddinChonburi]

Thailand seems to be very good at advertising there inability to solve problems. Keep your head down and eyes open, good luck men.

[chrisinth]

Amateur night? Give us a break. The bomb was very sophisticated.

The bombs are being reported as pipe bombs. Pipe bombs are not sophisticated when it comes to explosive devices. The authorities have stated that the shrine one was detonated on a timer, not remotely detonated. The only difference to previous devices used in Thailand is that they were enhanced with ball bearings instead of the normal scrap metal and nails.

This is going by what has been reported up until now. If it was a pipe bomb, then it was not very sophisticated.

Sophisticated enough to kill 20 innocent people and injure over a hundred. In your expert opinion, what should deaths/injuries add up to before you'd refer to a bomb as 'sophisticated'?

There is nothing sophisticated about a lorry load of fertiliser, a 9 volt battery, two wires a timer and a firing cap. Yet, the damage and destruction that could do is unimaginable.

I was pointing JT in the direction of what a pipe bomb was, not the destructive power of one.

Just for your reference:

Sophisticated - Ahead in development; complex or intricate

[JAG]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

Virtually impossible? The person who did it is still on the loose.

I'm curious why you think learning about who actually did it, changes the opinion of whether it will happen again.

Because with knowing who ( as in which organization ) was behind it comes an awareness of their motives and aims. When you know that then you can form an opinion.

For example, if the aim is to cripple Bangkok, economically and socially, then there may be more.

If the aim is to coerce the government into granting your political goal there may be more; but you need to announce what that aim is - (claim responsibility).

If you are sending a message, well then if you consider the message is delivered, and understood, then this may be a one off.

Edited August 24, 2015 by JAG

[JAG]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

Wrong!

Because?

[arjunadawn]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

Wrong!

Because?

Oh, sorry. I had answered previously then saw this and chopped up my response.

I dont think the public requires any requirements to form opinion at all. Maybe it would be great, but it does not happen that way. Just looking through the numerous online opeds and threads it may not be clear who did this but its clear what is not being discussed (at least its clear to me)- people feel this may be a harbinger of future events (this is the correct word). From this I think it is quite fair to consider this as barometer of public thinking. Opinions do not have a beyond a doubt threshold, many other factors weigh- Intuition, previous experience, or just dead certainty, or not, are frequently the standards that form opinions. I think people have every reason to believe it will happen again based on the fact that contemporary history has increasingly more dire events like this. Many are nearly numbed by these events globally so noting what appears to be new handiwork locally, fear, and intuition= valid opinion. IMO

[joshstiles]

lets hope so...something has to be the catalyst fir change....rarely in history does big change come without the loss of life.

Oh you dont like to hear that???

Grow up...study your history...history repeats itself

[maderaroja]

I think this type of bombing is new and is likely to recur. So say the politically active people whom I know of.

[Jingthing]

lets hope so...something has to be the catalyst fir change....rarely in history does big change come without the loss of life.

Oh you dont like to hear that???

Grow up...study your history...history repeats itself

Well, the theory I think is most likely is that bombing is related to South Thailand Islamic insurgency. Is that the kind of change you're hoping for? Or do you think it's red shirts (also possible) and you cheer on those kinds of terrorist tactics? Yes, I think you've crossed a line endorsing terrorism against innocent civilians.

Edited August 24, 2015 by Jingthing

[Asiantravel]

lets hope so...something has to be the catalyst fir change....rarely in history does big change come without the loss of life.

Oh you dont like to hear that???

Grow up...study your history...history repeats itself

Well, the theory I think is most likely is that bombing is related to South Thailand Islamic insurgency. Is that the kind of change you're hoping for? Or do you think it's red shirts (also possible) and you cheer on those kinds of terrorist tactics? Yes, I think you've crossed a line endorsing terrorism against innocent civilians.

but Bill Ayers of the Weather Underground said much much worse than what joshstiles said in that post. In fact he even said he didn't regret setting off bombs in 1990 - result = at least 19 invitations to the White House

[Jingthing]

Don't divert. This big bomb was placed in an area packed with innocent civilians with the clear intention of mass murder. There was no target except that.

[JAG]

Until it is known, or at least there is some evidence suggesting, who did it, it is virtually impossible to form an opinion on whether it will happen again.

The public, the media and the police are all in the same boat, they simply don't know.

Wrong!

Because?

Oh, sorry. I had answered previously then saw this and chopped up my response.

I dont think the public requires any requirements to form opinion at all. Maybe it would be great, but it does not happen that way. Just looking through the numerous online opeds and threads it may not be clear who did this but its clear what is not being discussed (at least its clear to me)- people feel this may be a harbinger of future events (this is the correct word). From this I think it is quite fair to consider this as barometer of public thinking. Opinions do not have a beyond a doubt threshold, many other factors weigh- Intuition, previous experience, or just dead certainty, or not, are frequently the standards that form opinions. I think people have every reason to believe it will happen again based on the fact that contemporary history has increasingly more dire events like this. Many are nearly numbed by these events globally so noting what appears to be new handiwork locally, fear, and intuition= valid opinion. IMO

Thank you for your reply. There is much in what you say, especially your last point "fear, and intuition= valid opinion".

My reply to the post preceding yours , #51, explains my thinking. I was trying to be as dispassionate as possible in forming my opinion.

Of course neither of us has really discussed the third option, that it may be the act of a nutter (think the chap who blew up the federal offices in Oaklahoma), in which case no logical or dispassionate thought process can predict what he may do again!

Lets just hope and pray that it is a one off.

Edited August 24, 2015 by JAG

[arjunadawn]

Oh, sorry. I had answered previously then saw this and chopped up my response.

I dont think the public requires any requirements to form opinion at all. Maybe it would be great, but it does not happen that way. Just looking through the numerous online opeds and threads it may not be clear who did this but its clear what is not being discussed (at least its clear to me)- people feel this may be a harbinger of future events (this is the correct word). From this I think it is quite fair to consider this as barometer of public thinking. Opinions do not have a beyond a doubt threshold, many other factors weigh- Intuition, previous experience, or just dead certainty, or not, are frequently the standards that form opinions. I think people have every reason to believe it will happen again based on the fact that contemporary history has increasingly more dire events like this. Many are nearly numbed by these events globally so noting what appears to be new handiwork locally, fear, and intuition= valid opinion. IMO

Thank you for your reply. There is much in what you say, especially your last point "fear, and intuition= valid opinion".

My reply to the post preceding yours , #51, explains my thinking. I was trying to be as dispassionate as possible in forming my opinion.

Of course neither of us has really discussed the third option, that it may be the act of a nutter (think the chap who blew up the federal offices in Oaklahoma), in which case no logical or dispassionate thought process can predict what he may do again!

Lets just hope and pray that it is a one off.

I considered this but there is nothing in the MO and the technique of the bomb that suggests a nutter- to me (an FBI forensics profile would be useful here). The motivation to kill various people praying to a god, ancestors, etc., would have to transcend common conscience. There are few mindsets that meet this criteria, in this context: religion is one of two possibilities, the unmentioned other I do not think has merit.