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Posted

I'm interested in the historical forex rate for aud/usd. Do you know a good website to give information on the last time the exchange rate was down in the low 70's? I remember vaguely that it was in this area in late 2008. What about before that?

I am thinking of buying shares on nasdaq from my oz bank trading account. Obviously they convert aud to usd at the rate in the low 70's. If I buy more shares I will obviously be subjected to currency risk when I sell. All rates move in cycles and thus Im keen to know how often it has gone down to the low 70's in the last 15 years.

thanks

Posted

That strategy would hedge you against a FURTHER decline in the Oz dollar and expose you to any correction in the US markets.

I think the OZ dollar will go a little lower but cannot see it falling below 65c. I also see a correction on the horizon for US markets.

Why don't you just open an account with Citibank in Singapore. You can have an AUD account and USD account and transfer to hedge curriences as you wish.

Posted

I also see a correction on the horizon for US markets.

That horizon is in the rear view mirror now....been going on for a few months now with it accelerating over the last few weeks.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

Posted

The last week has been especially bad for the AUD against the USD and THB (and other currencies). And it doesn't look like today/Friday trading in the U.S. is going to make it any better per these two snapshots from Bloomberg a few minutes ago.

post-55970-0-08029000-1441375820_thumb.j

post-55970-0-71950700-1441375828_thumb.j

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

In your specific case I'd suggest that you convert your AUD to NZD hedging as a buffer to more losses in the 10% range (betting on parity or below with NZD/AUD) against USD. I don't know what sort of interest you'd receive with NZD compared to the 3.25 % in AUD stated which sounds unreal to me but that's what I would do now wearing your shoes. AUD/USD 60 most likely soon and 50 possible too (not very) but if then that's where exhaustion will swing it around again in no time.

USD is tricky but it will get hammered again in a while and harder than ever. Capitalism in America is way after it's peak.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

In your specific case I'd suggest that you convert your AUD to NZD hedging as a buffer to more losses in the 10% range (betting on parity or below with NZD/AUD) against USD. I don't know what sort of interest you'd receive with NZD compared to the 3.25 % in AUD stated which sounds unreal to me but that's what I would do now wearing your shoes. AUD/USD 60 most likely soon and 50 possible too (not very) but if then that's where exhaustion will swing it around again in no time.

USD is tricky but it will get hammered again in a while and harder than ever. Capitalism in America is way after it's peak.

Regarding the 3.25% this is the rate I received on October 2014, and the TD will mature next month. I have just sent a mail and enquired what the present rates are.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

In your specific case I'd suggest that you convert your AUD to NZD hedging as a buffer to more losses in the 10% range (betting on parity or below with NZD/AUD) against USD. I don't know what sort of interest you'd receive with NZD compared to the 3.25 % in AUD stated which sounds unreal to me but that's what I would do now wearing your shoes. AUD/USD 60 most likely soon and 50 possible too (not very) but if then that's where exhaustion will swing it around again in no time.

USD is tricky but it will get hammered again in a while and harder than ever. Capitalism in America is way after it's peak.

Regarding the 3.25% this is the rate I received on October 2014, and the TD will mature next month. I have just sent a mail and enquired what the present rates are.

at the same time you'd ask about how much they pay interest for NZD.

Posted

As per there web page they pay 2.14% for NZD & 2.30% for AUD for 1 year TD

well then you should now what is more beneficial to you in case you follow my advice. But then you know I dont really know but experienced.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

you obviously stick to your advice on your avatar "man should be brave" losing in AUD since oct 2014 17% and out of that nearly 6% vs. Thai Baht in less than a month and then enquire about present rates thumbsup.gif

Posted

The AUD is just weak against many currencies right now whether it's the USD, Eur, GBP, Yen, and even Thai baht.

Take a look at the chart below showing the performance of the AUD againt the USD, Yen, Eur, pound, Canadian dollar and baht....the AUD weakened by 10 to 26% against these currencies over the past 12 months with the drop against an also weakening THB being 17%...it's just the AUD weakened more than the THB...not that the THB got stronger as its been weakening against most currencies also. The AUD sure appears to be be closely tied to world commodity prices such as ore prices and we all know which way commodity prices such as iron ore, oil, etc., have been heading....take a look at the iron ore commodity trend chart below for the last 5 years.

post-55970-0-74724900-1441595757_thumb.j

post-55970-0-18595800-1441596047_thumb.j

Posted (edited)

I think we will eventually see the AUD in the 50s against the greenback.

The down ward tend in commodities will carry the AUD down to low 60s.

Then the next black swan event, be it debt bubble related or otherwise will see an additional flight to USD as we saw in 2008.

At that point the AUD will drop to mid to low 50s.

When I first moved here I transferred over about the equivalent of 10 million THB from AUD and around 31THB.

During the protests I was worried about visa security and so transfered 75% of that capital to Singapore (at around 1.14) and hold in SGD. AUD has now dropped below parity with the SGD so I did ok.

Edited by Bulldozer Dawn
Posted

I think we will eventually see the AUD in the 50s against the greenback.

The down ward tend in commodities will carry the AUD down to low 60s.

Then the next black swan event, be it debt bubble related or otherwise will see an additional flight to USD as we saw in 2008.

At that point the AUD will drop to mid to low 50s.

When I first moved here I transferred over about the equivalent of 10 million THB from AUD and around 31THB.

During the protests I was worried about visa security and so transfered 75% of that capital to Singapore (at around 1.14) and hold in SGD. AUD has now dropped below parity with the SGD so I did ok.

another crystal ball owner smile.png

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

you obviously stick to your advice on your avatar "man should be brave" losing in AUD since oct 2014 17% and out of that nearly 6% vs. Thai Baht in less than a month and then enquire about present rates thumbsup.gif

Naam if in my position what would be the forward plan, or is it sit and wait if the funds are not required

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

you obviously stick to your advice on your avatar "man should be brave" losing in AUD since oct 2014 17% and out of that nearly 6% vs. Thai Baht in less than a month and then enquire about present rates thumbsup.gif

Naam if in my position what would be the forward plan, or is it sit and wait if the funds are not required

Your strategy should be to generate income. The rest will look after itself.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

Australian property is still a good bet and over time better performing than a term deposit, at least look at moving part of it into a managed fund.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

In your specific case I'd suggest that you convert your AUD to NZD hedging as a buffer to more losses in the 10% range (betting on parity or below with NZD/AUD) against USD. I don't know what sort of interest you'd receive with NZD compared to the 3.25 % in AUD stated which sounds unreal to me but that's what I would do now wearing your shoes. AUD/USD 60 most likely soon and 50 possible too (not very) but if then that's where exhaustion will swing it around again in no time.

USD is tricky but it will get hammered again in a while and harder than ever. Capitalism in America is way after it's peak.

60 is rubbish and if it got that low would be temporary, Australia is facing the same problems as everybody else, hugh room for growth once we get the right government pulling the strings, lot of doom and gloom merchants abound crazy stupid things both in here and in newspapers...

NZ???? Ummm hardly a rock solid currency.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

In your specific case I'd suggest that you convert your AUD to NZD hedging as a buffer to more losses in the 10% range (betting on parity or below with NZD/AUD) against USD. I don't know what sort of interest you'd receive with NZD compared to the 3.25 % in AUD stated which sounds unreal to me but that's what I would do now wearing your shoes. AUD/USD 60 most likely soon and 50 possible too (not very) but if then that's where exhaustion will swing it around again in no time.

USD is tricky but it will get hammered again in a while and harder than ever. Capitalism in America is way after it's peak.

60 is rubbish and if it got that low would be temporary, Australia is facing the same problems as everybody else, hugh room for growth once we get the right government pulling the strings, lot of doom and gloom merchants abound crazy stupid things both in here and in newspapers...

NZ???? Ummm hardly a rock solid currency.

everything's possible but a further drop most likely. Currencies when trending they do it for a very long time usually ignoring any sort of fundamentals because those moves are caused and driven forward by big institutions.

The only positive thing I can think about is that there is a strong seasonal tendency for rising AUD lasting the whole of October.

Posted

Trying to factor in the historical rates is a waste of time. It is what it is at any particular time. Dollar cost averaging is when you decide to take a position and purchase over a length of time, 100 shares each month for instance.

I have around 230k AUD in a TD account with HSBC Perth, at present they pay around 3.25%. I am based in Thailand and will never be living in Oz to use the AUD there.

I have no need to use this money at present, and if required I can let it sit for 5 years or more ,any thoughts on how to make the most on these funds.

My plan was to use it as retirement cash, but as it is now there is no way I can change to Thai Baht at the present rate.

you obviously stick to your advice on your avatar "man should be brave" losing in AUD since oct 2014 17% and out of that nearly 6% vs. Thai Baht in less than a month and then enquire about present rates thumbsup.gif

Naam if in my position what would be the forward plan, or is it sit and wait if the funds are not required

i would do what you should have done last october. forget any interest and park your AUD temporarily in USD till the dust settles. Australia exports commodities. nearly all of them show a further downtrend. aggravating the situation is the slowdown of the Chinese economy Australia's main buyer of iron ore and coal. therefore... outlook still negative.

caveat: this is my opinion (which i think is appropriate considering all circumstances) and not a prophecy! unlike some others i do not possess a crystal ball enabling me to see the future.

Posted

If I was to convert my AUD to USD I would be out of pocket big time as around 3 years ago I converted from USD to AUD when the rates were almost even. The interest rate then was 5.5% but my plan has backfired.

230,000.00 AUD = 161,007.92 USD Australian Dollar US Dollar 1 AUD = 0.700034 USD 1 USD = 1.42850 AUD

Posted

If I was to convert my AUD to USD I would be out of pocket big time as around 3 years ago I converted from USD to AUD when the rates were almost even. The interest rate then was 5.5% but my plan has backfired.

230,000.00 AUD = 161,007.92 USD Australian Dollar US Dollar 1 AUD = 0.700034 USD 1 USD = 1.42850 AUD

English is my third language IF. please explain (use simple wording) why you would be "out of pocket big time" by converting AUD into USD.

Posted

If I was to convert my AUD to USD I would be out of pocket big time as around 3 years ago I converted from USD to AUD when the rates were almost even. The interest rate then was 5.5% but my plan has backfired.

230,000.00 AUD = 161,007.92 USD Australian Dollar US Dollar 1 AUD = 0.700034 USD 1 USD = 1.42850 AUD

English is my third language IF. please explain (use simple wording) why you would be "out of pocket big time" by converting AUD into USD.

This is the deal.

On 2012 I converted around $230K USD to AUD, the exchange rate was near 1 to 1 so I ended up with around 230K AUD. The reason I converted was because the TD rate for the AUD was over 5%, while the TD rate for USD was almost zero.

So if I convert back to USD I will receive around 161K USD, and if I continue with the TD the rate as of now is around 2.30%

Posted

If I was to convert my AUD to USD I would be out of pocket big time as around 3 years ago I converted from USD to AUD when the rates were almost even. The interest rate then was 5.5% but my plan has backfired.

230,000.00 AUD = 161,007.92 USD Australian Dollar US Dollar 1 AUD = 0.700034 USD 1 USD = 1.42850 AUD

English is my third language IF. please explain (use simple wording) why you would be "out of pocket big time" by converting AUD into USD.

This is the deal.

On 2012 I converted around $230K USD to AUD, the exchange rate was near 1 to 1 so I ended up with around 230K AUD. The reason I converted was because the TD rate for the AUD was over 5%, while the TD rate for USD was almost zero.

So if I convert back to USD I will receive around 161K USD, and if I continue with the TD the rate as of now is around 2.30%

this is my deal:

even the bravest man in Issan wouldn't like my rebuttal. therefore i refrain from commenting wai2.gif

Posted

It is often the case where one must ask oneself, "why is the yield so high"? Why is this yield multiples of what I can get elsewhere?

“More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun.” –Raymond DeVoe, Jr.

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