Putin jockeying for deal with US on Syria

[webfact]

Putin jockeying for deal with US on Syria
VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press

MOSCOW (AP) — Signs of an ongoing Russian military buildup in Syria have drawn U.S. concerns and raised questions of whether Moscow plans to enter the conflict. President Vladimir Putin has been coy on the subject, saying Russia is weighing various options, a statement that has fueled suspicions about the Kremlin's intentions.

Observers in Moscow say the Russian maneuvering could be part of a plan to send troops to Syria to fight the Islamic State group in the hope of fixing fractured ties with the West. They warn, however, that Putin would likely find it hard to sell his idea to a skeptical U.S. and risks potentially catastrophic repercussions if he opts for unilateral military action in Syria.

By playing with the possibility of joining the anti-IS coalition, Putin may hope to win a few key concessions. His main goal: the lifting of Western sanctions and the normalization of relations with the United States and the European Union, which have sunk to their lowest point since the Cold War amid the Ukrainian crisis. In addition, the Russian leader may be angling to make the West more receptive to Moscow's involvement in Ukraine, while retaining influence in Syria.

Early this summer, the Kremlin put forward a peace plan for Syria that envisions enlisting Syrian government forces and Iran in the anti-IS coalition. A few rounds of negotiations with the Americans and Saudis have brought no visible results, and now Moscow appears to be testing the water for a next move: beefing up its military presence in Syria.

While Putin said Friday there is no talk "just yet" about Russian troops joining the fight against the Islamic State, he seemed to keep the door open for the possibility, saying "we are looking at various options." The Russian leader is set to attend the United Nations General Assembly later this month, and some analysts say a proposal to deploy troops to Syria could be the focal point of his visit.

Since the Soviet times, Russia has had close political and military ties with Syria, which hosts a Russian navy facility in the Mediterranean port of Tartus intended to service and supply visiting ships. While the Soviet-era facility has just a couple of floating piers along with a few rusting repair shops and depots, it has symbolic importance as the last remaining Russian military outpost outside the former Soviet Union.

Moscow has staunchly backed Syrian President Bashar Assad throughout the nation's 4 ½-year civil war, providing his regime with weapons and keeping military advisers in Syria. Putin said again Friday that Russia is providing the Syrian military with weapons and training.

Rami Abdurrahman, the head of the Britain-based monitoring group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said there have been reports since mid-August of Russian troops in the capital's airport and another airport in the coastal city of Latakia.

"We don't know if they are troops or transporters of weapons and ammunition," he said, noting an increase in the flow of Russian weapons arriving in Syria since July.

"The fact that (military cooperation) is not new is one thing, but there is a noticeable increase," said Abdurrahman, who has a large network of activists on the ground in Syria helping him monitor the situation.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry signaled Washington's concern in a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov over the weekend. The State Department said that Kerry made it clear that if reports of an imminent Russian military build-up in Syria were accurate, "these actions could further escalate the conflict, lead to greater loss of innocent life, increase refugee flows and risk confrontation with the anti-ISIL Coalition operating in Syria."

According to U.S. defense officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the sensitive issue, the U.S. has seen an increasing number of Russian transport planes seeking diplomatic approval for flights into Syria. They said it's not clear what is in the aircraft or what their purpose is.

Greek Foreign Ministry spokesman Constantinos Koutras said the U.S. has asked Greece to cancel overflight permission given to Russia Sept. 1-24, for flights headed to Syria. He said they are examining the request.

U.S. officials said they also have seen the movement of some prefabricated housing in Syria, although they haven't seen any troops moving in or becoming involved in actual combat activities, as some media reports suggested.

Sergei Karaganov, the founder of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a leading association of Russian political experts, said that Russia was considering the possibility of joining the anti-IS coalition, but the West so far has been unwelcoming. "They are reluctant to accept proposals from Putin, whom they want to contain," he said.

Karaganov, who has good connections among the Russian officials, said he doesn't expect Russia to opt for unilateral military action in Syria if it gets the cold shoulder from the U.S. and its allies. "It would involve enormous risks," he said.

Igor Korotchenko, a retired colonel of the Russian military's General Staff who is now editor of the National Defense magazine, also said that while Russia has supplied Assad's government with weapons, it has no intention to send its troops to Syria.

"Russia will not send its troops to the Middle East, it's absolutely excluded," he said. "It's the U.S. problem. Russia will not pay for that with its soldiers' lives."

Alexander Golts, an independent military analyst, said Putin sees joining the anti-IS coalition as a chance to reach rapprochement with the West. "Russia has found itself in isolation, which has been increasingly felt," he said.

He said the latest reports about the movements of troops and military cargo to Syria appeared to demonstrate Moscow's readiness to join the coalition, falling short of a big-size deployment.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based analyst who specializes in military and security issues, said that the apparent increase in the Russian presence in Syria could be part of Kremlin efforts to raise the pressure on the U.S. to accept Putin's plan.

"Such a coalition ... would allow Assad's regime to survive and allow Russia to maintain its presence in the Middle East," he said.

If Russia ends up sending its military contingent to Syria, it will likely include a few combat jets along with support personnel and some troops to guard them, Felgenhauer said. Staying away from ground action would allow Russia to avoid any significant losses.

Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East expert with the Carnegie Endowment's Moscow office, was skeptical, saying that Putin's apparent plan to use Syria to improve ties with the West will be unlikely to succeed.

He warned that if Russia fails to strike a deal with the U.S. and tries to do it alone alongside Assad's forces, it would further damage its relations not just with the U.S. but regional powers. It will also likely trigger a negative public response, providing a painful reminder of the botched Soviet war in Afghanistan.

"It will not be received with joy here in Russia; everyone will compare it to Afghanistan," he said. "If they do it, it would be a very stupid thing. It's very simple to get in, but it could be quite difficult to get out."

Malashenko also warned that deploying Russian soldiers to fight the IS would draw risks of retaliation and raise the terror threat for Russia.

While launching unilateral action would be extremely risky, it's difficult to predict how Putin will act if his offer of joint action against the IS is rejected by Washington, Malashenko said.

"Putin is unpredictable, and he is very emotional," he said.


-- (c) Associated Press 2015-09-08

[HLover]

Perfect, hope they create a coalition and start relations.

[Bakseeda]

Nothing to worry about.... Russia has more internal problems than Mr Methane... Putin just likes to read his own name...

[maidee]

russia could send some of them troops to go fight, i guess they miss the time when they did war on afghanistan

[h90]

Perfect, hope they create a coalition and start relations.

USA is putting pressure on Greek to not let Russian airplanes with weapons fly over their land.

So as it seems USA is protecting ISIS

[craigt3365]

Perfect, hope they create a coalition and start relations.

USA is putting pressure on Greek to not let Russian airplanes with weapons fly over their land.

So as it seems USA is protecting ISIS

Perhaps they are trying to keep more Russian troops from entering Syria?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11840713/Russian-troops-fighting-alongside-Assads-army-against-Syrian-rebels.html

[Baerboxer]

russia could send some of them troops to go fight, i guess they miss the time when they did war on afghanistan

I don't think many Soviet service personnel enjoyed their time in Afghanistan. Russia hasn't had a successful record of troops fighting colonial wars and lacks that experience.

[anon4546543]

More hypotheticals. However there was a brief mention of Russian "fighter" aircraft being deployed to Syria in Australian parliament today. Not that you could believe any thing in The House of Lies these days. But Russia supports Assad and says it want to fight ISIL. US does not support Assad but does want to defeat ISIL without use of ground troops. Kurds want their traditional homeland back and wants to defeat ISIL. Turks don't want to give the Kurds back the land it stole from them. Turkey is an ally of the US, so the US will not support the Kurds. It is a confusing situation and I have not even mentioned other players such as Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Arabia and other Gulf states such as Qatar. Perhaps if everyone packed up their bags and went home, it may sort each other out. As to defeating ISIL, there is one way to defeat them. ISIL requires supplies, arms and finance. Cut off anyone of these essentials and they will collapse.

[Loptr]

This is the dumbest read from the AP that I have ever seen... Putin is an ally of Assad and Syria, while the US created ISIS as a clandestine organization to take out Assad... Putin's move to put troops on the ground in Syria is a huge f##k you to Obama and America for doing the dirty work of Saudi Arabia and Qatar... As usual, more disinformation for the masses from the largest propaganda machine on the planet, the AP...

[Publicus]

This is the dumbest read from the AP that I have ever seen... Putin is an ally of Assad and Syria, while the US created ISIS as a clandestine organization to take out Assad... Putin's move to put troops on the ground in Syria is a huge f##k you to Obama and America for doing the dirty work of Saudi Arabia and Qatar... As usual, more disinformation for the masses from the largest propaganda machine on the planet, the AP...

AP which is the Associated Press has been a middle of the road news organization since it was founded in 1846 as the fact-based alternative to the local press in the US that was controllled by the political parties. The period in US journalism that is known as the time of the Partisan Party Press.

It was as if people read either Fox or MSNBC cause that's all there was. So the AP came along to fill the void in the center and it's been successful and accurate since.

AP in fact remains the most reliable, i.e., accurate, news organization in the United States. Always has been. The marginals have always got quite stressed out about it.

[ggt]

Like a masterful chess match...Putin has already thought several moves ahead...while the US is still trying to figure out his last move...

Quality leadership, intelligence reporting, and analysis is in short supply in Western countries these days...IMHO

[capcc76]

^^^. Yep, Putin has treated Obama like his little bi*** every step if the way since 2012. Embarrassing and now we have a big mess.

[Srikcir]

If Putin hadn't been backing the Asaad regime, ISIL wouldn't be an issue within Syria. Asaad would have been overthrown and ISIL would be fighting unified Syrian army and nation.

Putin is only interested in keeping Asaad as a client for projection of Russian influence in the region. He could care less otherwise about ISIL. There is no reason for the USA to partner with Putin in the Middle East nor make concessions to Putin over Ukraine for such a partnership.

Putin is showing the USA economic sanctions are affecting Putin's Grand Imperialism. Putin is trying to find a way out of the economic chains Obama has Russia wrapped in while trying to gain an advantage. If Syria were a chess game, Putin is trying to castle his King for a better defense.

Edited September 8, 2015 by Srikcir

[timbothaivisa]

Everyone who thinks Russia is kowtowing to the West with this move is deluded. He has rightly calculated that with the humanitarian crisis now mounting, he has:

• a moral case to fill the power void in the Middle East
• a good excuse to strengthen political & military relations with Iran
• an opportunity to boost Russia as a popular world-player
• a chance to stick one to the (deliberately) impotent West
• and remind the rest of the BRICS group that Russia is still the alpha-male of the team

Make no mistake, the goal's wide open & he's taking the shot

Edited September 8, 2015 by timbothaivisa

[anon4546543]

Timbothaivisa. So you think that a country that bombs its own people with chemicals supplied by Russia and is supported by Russia is morally responsible. Boost Russia as popular? Russia is only popular to idiot repression Africans that want weapons to demonise their countries like Syria is doing. Stick one to the west - oh yeah they can do that while oil prices are low and the rouble is rubble. You are joking. Russia stinks and Putin is putrid. Check your facts, the BRICs are rapidly coming to the conclusion that Russia is meaningless, still having trouble feeding its people, still murdering anyone in dissent, still having huge AWOLs from troops forced into combat in the Ukraine, a population that does not want war in Arab countries. This is a last desperate measure from razPutin, a man who has run out of ideas supported only by delusional Russian Imperialists with only one overseas military harbour. Syria. Get a grip

[timbothaivisa]

Timbothaivisa. So you think that a country that bombs its own people with chemicals supplied by Russia and is supported by Russia is morally responsible. Boost Russia as popular? Russia is only popular to idiot repression Africans that want weapons to demonise their countries like Syria is doing. Stick one to the west - oh yeah they can do that while oil prices are low and the rouble is rubble. You are joking. Russia stinks and Putin is putrid. Check your facts, the BRICs are rapidly coming to the conclusion that Russia is meaningless, still having trouble feeding its people, still murdering anyone in dissent, still having huge AWOLs from troops forced into combat in the Ukraine, a population that does not want war in Arab countries. This is a last desperate measure from razPutin, a man who has run out of ideas supported only by delusional Russian Imperialists with only one overseas military harbour. Syria. Get a grip

Well half of that is regurgitated propaganda, and the other half is just your regular BS. If you think the powers controlling the West are still the good guys, then you have a lot of coffee to drink.

Edited September 8, 2015 by timbothaivisa

[Publicus]

Like a masterful chess match...Putin has already thought several moves ahead...while the US is still trying to figure out his last move...

Quality leadership, intelligence reporting, and analysis is in short supply in Western countries these days...IMHO

Like a masterful chess match...Putin has already thought several moves ahead

Putin hasn't ever played chess with anyone he couldn't put in jail.

Putin is an Old World loser, a Marxist-Leninist-Tsarist egomaniac dictator-tyrant.

[konying]

Nothing to worry about.... Russia has more internal problems than Mr Methane... Putin just likes to read his own name...

Do tell what those are

[konying]

russia could send some of them troops to go fight, i guess they miss the time when they did war on afghanistan

I don't think many Soviet service personnel enjoyed their time in Afghanistan. Russia hasn't had a successful record of troops fighting colonial wars and lacks that experience.

Remind me again how well US and NATO did in Afghanistan or Syria or Iraq or Vietnam ?

[capcc76]

Nothing to worry about.... Russia has more internal problems than Mr Methane... Putin just likes to read his own name...

Do tell what those are

C'mon, you have to admit Russia is a basket case right now. I will give you Putin being a better leader than Obama, but Russia is a wreck. We are looking to bring most of wife's extended family over. Things sux in Russia right now.

[timbothaivisa]

Remind me again how well US and NATO did in Afghanistan or Syria or Iraq or Vietnam ?

Truth is, nobody does well when the inhabitants don't want you there. Of course this is not the situation in Syria - 4 million refugees sitting on the borders says they want back in

[Linky]

Why do people think the US and only the US can fix this mess. Is it to save face?

The US and its allies, under threat of 'with us or against us' threats created this mess. Sometimes it is better to stand back and let others try things.

What is so wrong with Russia trying. Is it a US superiority complex thing not to want that?

I think so.

[Linky]

Everyone who thinks Russia is kowtowing to the West with this move is deluded. He has rightly calculated that with the humanitarian crisis now mounting, he has:

• a moral case to fill the power void in the Middle East
• a good excuse to strengthen political & military relations with Iran
• an opportunity to boost Russia as a popular world-player
• a chance to stick one to the (deliberately) impotent West
• and remind the rest of the BRICS group that Russia is still the alpha-male of the team

Make no mistake, the goal's wide open & he's taking the shot

It is obvious that western style democracy does not work in the middle east. I think a Putin style will have a lot more chance than the US style.

The US caused it all, let someone else fix it.

[Publicus]

Anyone who thinks Putin is a Mr Fix-it had better not get a leaky roof or termites cause a barrel bomb is his first solution. Polonium is his second. Investigative journalists in Russia have the shortest life expectancy of 'em all over there. And dontcha know Putin loves Muslims so much he's letting Grozny rebuild itself from the ground up.

Putin is globally isolated except for the governments, peoples and countries like himself and like his own. The economy there is sinking and so it Putin. The sanctions will continue through all of 2017 at the least, which the US and EU figured from their outset would run Putin out of time, money and town. The freight train looking to lay a kiss on Putin's face is running on schedule.

[timbothaivisa]

Putin is globally isolated except for the governments, peoples and countries like himself and like his own. The economy there is sinking and so it Putin. The sanctions will continue through all of 2017 at the least, which the US and EU figured from their outset would run Putin out of time, money and town. The freight train looking to lay a kiss on Putin's face is running on schedule.

You need to stop watching Fox News; Russia's main import from the west was food. It's main trading partner is China anyway, and yes it'll take a year to get production fully online, but it has more than enough land to take care of its own. Europe on the other hand, is sailing very close to the wind - would hate to wake up in Berlin in January with no gas...

The illusions that people gobble up from our air-bag propaganda-artists is jaw-dropping.

Edited September 9, 2015 by timbothaivisa

[Linky]

Anyone who thinks Putin is a Mr Fix-it had better not get a leaky roof or termites cause a barrel bomb is his first solution. Polonium is his second. Investigative journalists in Russia have the shortest life expectancy of 'em all over there. And dontcha know Putin loves Muslims so much he's letting Grozny rebuild itself from the ground up.

Putin is globally isolated except for the governments, peoples and countries like himself and like his own. The economy there is sinking and so it Putin. The sanctions will continue through all of 2017 at the least, which the US and EU figured from their outset would run Putin out of time, money and town. The freight train looking to lay a kiss on Putin's face is running on schedule.

So what would you prefer.

The US causes the mess because Hussein and Ghaddafi had control, as harsh as that was. But it kept the extemists in line. Very little international issues.

The US gets into things and the whole world turns to cr*p.

My vote for Putin to move in and bring some stability back and nto the region.

[Publicus]

Putin is globally isolated except for the governments, peoples and countries like himself and like his own. The economy there is sinking and so it Putin. The sanctions will continue through all of 2017 at the least, which the US and EU figured from their outset would run Putin out of time, money and town. The freight train looking to lay a kiss on Putin's face is running on schedule.

You need to stop watching Fox News; Russia's main import from the west was food. It's main trading partner is China anyway, and yes it'll take a year to get production fully online, but it has more than enough land to take care of its own. Europe on the other hand, is sailing very close to the wind - would hate to wake up in Berlin in January with no gas...

The illusions that people gobble up from our air-bag propaganda-artists is jaw-dropping.

Russia loves to use its natural energy resources in what it thinks are advantageous strategic ways, but that is a bust because it is blackmail not strategy. Europe is anyway energy independent of Russia and Putin, by a combination of reserves and new suppliers that are not strategic competitors or enemies.

Russia's main business is money and without US dollars and with global sanctions, Russia is, well, busted, broke.

This Putin gamble in Syria will be worse for Russia than Afghanistan was and worse than Vietnam was for the United States. Putin just can't help himself in barging out both arms swinging in this direction and in that one. As I'd noted, the guy is a Marxist-Leninist-Tsarist aggressor. Compulisve, not measured.

[Publicus]

Putin is globally isolated except for the governments, peoples and countries like himself and like his own. The economy there is sinking and so it Putin. The sanctions will continue through all of 2017 at the least, which the US and EU figured from their outset would run Putin out of time, money and town. The freight train looking to lay a kiss on Putin's face is running on schedule.

You need to stop watching Fox News; Russia's main import from the west was food. It's main trading partner is China anyway, and yes it'll take a year to get production fully online, but it has more than enough land to take care of its own. Europe on the other hand, is sailing very close to the wind - would hate to wake up in Berlin in January with no gas...

The illusions that people gobble up from our air-bag propaganda-artists is jaw-dropping.

You need to stop watching Fox News

[capcc76]

Nothing to worry about.... Russia has more internal problems than Mr Methane... Putin just likes to read his own name...

Do tell what those are

C'mon, you have to admit Russia is a basket case right now. I will give you Putin being a better leader than Obama, but Russia is a wreck. We are looking to bring most of wife's extended family over. Things sux in Russia right now.

A wreck in comparison to whom? Bankrupted US or Saudis?

I was giving you a chance to garner some credibility, but you got none. US had their bad times in 2008/09. Russian has had their bad times and, unfortunately, they are in the thick of one of the worst times ever.

Do you even know anyone in Russia? We have family that spans all ages, some retired, some college educate, some truck driver types and etc. They are hurting reall bad. All of them.

How is here in the states? Well, I purchased a new car last week, had a bottle 2005 Dom that I took to a restaurant last week, m wife is doing mid 6 figures selling stuff of all things, I give all of my work to younger associates because I get 1/2 of what they bill without doing anything and my biggest decision tonight is Wyuga beef or back to our seafood place that flies it in fresh every day.

Meanwhile, my mother in law and her entire family cannot even purchase groceries this week and stuff like barley has not been on the shelves for weeks. I would not even eat barley yet they are desperate to get it.

I have to say life is much better here.

[Publicus]

This is the dumbest read from the AP that I have ever seen... Putin is an ally of Assad and Syria, while the US created ISIS as a clandestine organization to take out Assad... Putin's move to put troops on the ground in Syria is a huge f##k you to Obama and America for doing the dirty work of Saudi Arabia and Qatar... As usual, more disinformation for the masses from the largest propaganda machine on the planet, the AP...

AP which is the Associated Press has been a middle of the road news organization since it was founded in 1846 as the fact-based alternative to the local press in the US that was controllled by the political parties. The period in US journalism that is known as the time of the Partisan Party Press.

It was as if people read either Fox or MSNBC cause that's all there was. So the AP came along to fill the void in the center and it's been successful and accurate since.

AP in fact remains the most reliable, i.e., accurate, news organization in the United States. Always has been. The marginals have always got quite stressed out about it.

Yeah, just like Reuters...

Yep

AP was the first model of the mainstream mass media we presently have, since 1846. The AP has impacted journalism to change and shape it as no other media organization has. It created a vast and varied readership mainstream from what had been only two huge fringes. Historic indeed.

Often called the "Marine Corps of journalism"—always first in and last out—AP reports history in urgent installments, always on deadline, with accuracy, impartiality, integrity.

The AP's multi-topic structure has resulted in web portals such as Yahoo! and MSN posting its articles, often relying on AP as their first source for news coverage of breaking news items. This and the constant updating evolving stories require has had a major impact on the AP's public image and role, giving new credence to the AP's ongoing mission of having staff for covering every area of news fully and promptly.

https://quizlet.com/28349587/history-of-american-journ-flash-cards/

The opposite of Russia and China to include all the countries, governments, elites that worship the two. Assad prominently comes to mind at the moment.