Baht likely to fall to 36.75 baht per US dollar at year-end

[lavender19]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

------------------------------

Due to uncontrollable external factor".

In short a slowdown in the Chinese economy and therefore a fall in Thai exports to China ..... but they don't dare say that directly.

However, as it says in the Bible, "They that hath eyes, let them see, and they that hath ears let them hear also".

Yes but you know how it works here

[lostoday]

Jury still out there. USA economy improving but not great. The employment gains really not up to expectation. There really no inflation at the moment and a strong dollar is bad for the exporters at time when other competing countries have a weak currency and global demand is still very soft. Doubt September and possibly kick the can to next year.

Almost certainly will raise this month. 25 basis points, from nearly zero for years now, won't even be noticed and is long overdue. Even if they raised it 50 basis points, which they won't...it would still be historically very low. A hike will bring some stability back to the markets and also prepare for further rate hikes next year. Then watch the baht crumble!

Certainly will not raise this month. Come back in a few weeks and admit you were wrong.

No problem admitting when wrong, but since you're the one making the positive claim...TV members following this thread will expect full admittance of your error if you prove to be incorrect. Looking forward to it...

You wrote, "Almost certainly will raise this month. 25 basis points, from nearly zero for years now, won't even be noticed and is long overdue." I only replied to your uneducated guess. Really like taking candy from a baby. Not much of a challenge. I'd me more than happy to come back and say I was wrong in the event that proves to be true.

Edited September 9, 2015 by lostoday

[up-country_sinclair]

I'm currently keeping my powder dry and hoping for the rate to continue going down. At some point I'm going to have to transfer funds. Maybe at 37 I'll make a move.

[White Tiger]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

When they become a full member of ASEAN a lot of very hard lessons will come

Get your facts straight: Thailand has been a full member of ASEAN since 1967. If you lack such basic knowledge better not post such nonsense!

Correct, Thailand is already a full member of ASEAN. It was one of the countries that founded it in August 1967. http://www.asean.org/asean/about-asean/history

The ASEAN Economic Community is a system of closer economic ties and co-operation between ASEAN member countries – a plan for a single market and production base in S East Asia. The blueprint envisages free movement of goods, services, capital, and skilled workers between ASEAN member countries – as I understand it it’s meant to be an ASEAN version of the European Community. An agreement was signed in November 2007 by all the ASEAN member countries, by which they agreed to implement these things by 2015. http://www.asean.org/communities/asean-economic-community

A little bit of semantics, but I’m pretty sure this is what Gandalf was talking about in his earlier post (not ASEAN, but the ASEAN Economic Community). Thailand seems to me, as a casual observer, to be some way from being compliant within the agreed timescale – it can’t even agree on its constitution let alone changes to its laws to make it compliant with the ASEAN Economic Community principles. I agree with Gandlaf that the country is in for a shock when it eventually delivers on the things it signed up to in November 2007. Some things should already be in place and we should now be at the monitoring stage, but I doubt that they are in place. (For example, a single ASEAN wide standard for electrical and electronic equipment; or the implementation of ASEAN wide road safety measures – I kid you not – should have happened in 2012-13).

The blueprint document – the things that were agreed to in November 2007 – with all the details can be read here http://www.asean.org/archive/5187-10.pdf

Sorry this is off topic of the original thread. Unless, that is, you think that the possibility, perhaps, of a single ASEAN currency (along the lines of the Euro in the EC) at some point in the future to help facilitate the implementation of the blueprint, is relevant to movements in the Baht. But a single currency is a long long way off in my opinion and if it were mooted it is easy to see Thailand going for an 'opt-out' to keep the Baht, much as the UK decided to keep the Pound Sterling rather than adopt the Euro.

[Thai at Heart]

Thailand should overall be happy about this, exports should get a bump out of this. The USD has been very weak for a very long time. Nothing is forever in economics.

Money will flow back to the USD inevitably .

[2fishin2]

Baht isnt fallling, dollar is getting stronger

[chiang mai]

Do Americans really want such a high dollar? Surely the American economy depends on some exports to the rest of the world? Or can the Americans just keep sucking in cheaper and cheaper imports (presumably displacing American products) without a hitch? How high does America want its dollar to go? Double what it is now?

What does the price of the dollar have to do with what Americans want? It's not like they elect the Chairman of the Fed.

The value of the dollar, it's strength or weakness over time, determines to a large extent the quality of the US economy and the lifestyle of its people, an overly strong dollar in a weak economy means a reduced standard of living - think exports and imports.

[Praematura]

Anyone recall a post where bad economic news was due to "internal factors." Fed should raise rates and send the baht higher. Let's face it we are looking at 38 baht+ in the near future.

[farangmick]

I hope he is wrong. I want it to fall quicker. School fees x 3, wife's birthday and car insurance all fall due in November, a grim month.

[Nick167]

Only 36.75....really....lol!

[Skeptic7]

Almost certainly will raise this month. 25 basis points, from nearly zero for years now, won't even be noticed and is long overdue. Even if they raised it 50 basis points, which they won't...it would still be historically very low. A hike will bring some stability back to the markets and also prepare for further rate hikes next year. Then watch the baht crumble!

Jury still out there. USA economy improving but not great. The employment gains really not up to expectation. There really no inflation at the moment and a strong dollar is bad for the exporters at time when other competing countries have a weak currency and global demand is still very soft. Doubt September and possibly kick the can to next year.

Certainly will not raise this month. Come back in a few weeks and admit you were wrong.

No problem admitting when wrong, but since you're the one making the positive claim...TV members following this thread will expect full admittance of your error if you prove to be incorrect. Looking forward to it...

You wrote, "Almost certainly will raise this month. 25 basis points, from nearly zero for years now, won't even be noticed and is long overdue." I only replied to your uneducated guess. Really like taking candy from a baby. Not much of a challenge. I'd me more than happy to come back and say I was wrong in the event that proves to be true.

WOW...really?

FYI...I know what I wrote...I WROTE IT! Silly of me to assume such undeserved credit, so I'll spell it out. When someone says or writes "almost certainly"...there has been no positive claim made, only an opinion given. Intentionally leaving some room for error. The word almost is the qualifier which sees to that. When someone (YOU) states, "certainly will not"...a definite positive claim of knowledge has been declared authoritatively. NO wiggle room...NO room for error. You have pronounced a claim with absolute certainty. I have only shared my opinion. Got it now?

[bangrak]

I stand by my 40 baht to the USD by 2016.

And that rate of 40Baht to the USD would, at last, reflect the real, intrinsic, value of the Baht, IMO. But the way rates are manipulated here by the BoT, who knows which 'preferred clients' the big guys there will need to serve to line their, deep pockets... Some Singaporian funds, or will it be a Malaysian ones, hush!

[lostoday]

Certainly will not raise this month. Come back in a few weeks and admit you were wrong.

No problem admitting when wrong, but since you're the one making the positive claim...TV members following this thread will expect full admittance of your error if you prove to be incorrect. Looking forward to it...

You wrote, "Almost certainly will raise this month. 25 basis points, from nearly zero for years now, won't even be noticed and is long overdue." I only replied to your uneducated guess. Really like taking candy from a baby. Not much of a challenge. I'd me more than happy to come back and say I was wrong in the event that proves to be true.

WOW...really?

FYI...I know what I wrote...I WROTE IT! Silly of me to assume such undeserved credit, so I'll spell it out. When someone says or writes "almost certainly"...there has been no positive claim made, only an opinion given. Intentionally leaving some room for error. The word almost is the qualifier which sees to that. When someone (YOU) states, "certainly will not"...a definite positive claim of knowledge has been declared authoritatively. NO wiggle room...NO room for error. You have pronounced a claim with absolute certainty. I have only shared my opinion. Got it now?

You think they will raise the rate I think they will not. Simple isn't it? Got it now?

[spidermike007]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Due to some external factors, combined with an extraordinary lack of talent in the current administration, is closer to the truth. Oh, wait a minute. That admission would require taking some responsibility for the current predicament. How naive of me to consider that possibility, Little P. has shown that taking responsibility is not his strong suit, nor that of his subordinates.

[bangrak]

OK so its the USA's fault again for the weakening baht. I will have to tell then embassy to keep up the good work then because it is making me rich changing dollar to baht now. Heheee

No, the refugees' problems in Europe have been caused by the ever-so-silly foreign policies of the USA, but the weakening of the Baht, for sure not, the more so while, anyway' the Fed' doesn't belong to the Federal authorities, but to a select bunch of families (as crazy as things can get there)...

[Srikcir]

Normally, an inflating currency will attract more foreign investment capital. The cost of market entry, production and sales will generate significant profit margins.

However, there must be an increasing domestic consumption (aka domestic GDP) to reward foreign capital investment. Otherwise, all the tea in China won't bring capital into the country. But Thailand's domestic consumption is in trouble. For example:

- the Consumer Confidence Index slid for the eighth consecutive month to 72.3 points in August 2015

- Thailand is highly likely to post negative inflation in 2015 for the first time in six years

- Thai household debt has increased to the highest in ten years

Furthermore, as investors look at Southeast Asia nations for investment opportunities, political stability will be an important factor. But the Junta has now announced elections are scheduled for mid-2017, assuming the next draft constitution is passed by the NRC successor and referendum. Otherwise, elections might slip into 2018! In the interim the Junta will continue its absolute rule. This creates a lot of investment uncertainty in Thailand. Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia might better benefit than Thailand.

Thailand is more likely to duplicate Venezuela's currency problems.

[stickylies]

It's the asteroid's fault...

[Time Traveller]

I'd never predict rates more than a year ahead .. but yes, the thai economy is in bad shape.

Major events can trigger confidence one way or the other. At some point the baht will fall in value massively but forums rules mean I can't say why.

So what you are saying is that you are sitting on an important piece of information that no one else knows about and if they did then t hey haven't already factored that into the market because everyone else is just soo dumb, right?

Well fish fingers, don't just sit here talking, go out and sell everything you have leverage up and short the Baht......you'll be a trillionaire soon.

[Jon Wetherall]

I stand by my 40 baht to the USD by 2016.

And that rate of 40Baht to the USD would, at last, reflect the real, intrinsic, value of the Baht, IMO. But the way rates are manipulated here by the BoT, who knows which 'preferred clients' the big guys there will need to serve to line their, deep pockets... Some Singaporian funds, or will it be a Malaysian ones, hush!

That's interesting. I said the same thing about BOT a few weeks ago and some muppet told me I was crazy. But the charts clearly show when they turn it on and off.

Glad I wasn't hallucinating. Glad he was in deep wishful thinking territory.

[yrag]

FOR THE LAST 8 YEARS APPROX .SURROUNDING COUNTRYS HAVE BEEN SAYING THAI BAHT NOT WORTH WHAT YOU SAY IT IS TO THAILAND

[Time Traveller]

And that rate of 40Baht to the USD would, at last, reflect the real, intrinsic, value of the Baht, IMO. But the way rates are manipulated here by the BoT, who knows which 'preferred clients' the big guys there will need to serve to line their, deep pockets... Some Singaporian funds, or will it be a Malaysian ones, hush!

No I think you're just biased toward round numbers. Currencies do not come with intrinsic values apart from the value of the paper and metal in their notes and coins

[Thai at Heart]

Normally, an inflating currency will attract more foreign investment capital. The cost of market entry, production and sales will generate significant profit margins.

However, there must be an increasing domestic consumption (aka domestic GDP) to reward foreign capital investment. Otherwise, all the tea in China won't bring capital into the country. But Thailand's domestic consumption is in trouble. For example:

- the Consumer Confidence Index slid for the eighth consecutive month to 72.3 points in August 2015

- Thailand is highly likely to post negative inflation in 2015 for the first time in six years

- Thai household debt has increased to the highest in ten years

Furthermore, as investors look at Southeast Asia nations for investment opportunities, political stability will be an important factor. But the Junta has now announced elections are scheduled for mid-2017, assuming the next draft constitution is passed by the NRC successor and referendum. Otherwise, elections might slip into 2018! In the interim the Junta will continue its absolute rule. This creates a lot of investment uncertainty in Thailand. Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia might better benefit than Thailand.

Thailand is more likely to duplicate Venezuela's currency problems.

Foreign companies enter Thailand to export not to sell to domestic consumers. Most businesses providing products and services to Thais are restricted....

[Thai at Heart]

And that rate of 40Baht to the USD would, at last, reflect the real, intrinsic, value of the Baht, IMO. But the way rates are manipulated here by the BoT, who knows which 'preferred clients' the big guys there will need to serve to line their, deep pockets... Some Singaporian funds, or will it be a Malaysian ones, hush!

No I think you're just biased toward round numbers. Currencies do not come with intrinsic values apart from the value of the paper and metal in their notes and coins

Indeed. Relative interest rates play a bigger part than so called intrinsic value.

Carry trade in currencies makes up a huge part of investments. A tiny uptick in usd rates is enough to suck money back into usd.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Thai at Heart

[FredNL]

Blablablablablabla..

The reality is that Thai economy is going down the drain. It is not because of the rise of the dollar.

Today I heard from suppliers that the reason that prices went up (exanple from 18 THB to 45 THB /pc) were due to the rise of the Chinese Dollar... Now we start to import supplies for ourselves and don't give a $#!t about our lying supplier.

Thailand is living on a giant soap bubble. It is what I already said in 2010 !!!

I predict a dollar rate of at least 39 THB on the dollar before this year ends... Prove me that I am wrong !!!

Edited September 10, 2015 by Tywais
Changed to standard font

[Thai at Heart]

Blablablablablabla..

The reality is that Thai economy is going down the drain. It is not because of the rise of the dollar.

Today I heard from suppliers that the reason that prices went up (exanple from 18 THB to 45 THB /pc) were due to the rise of the Chinese Dollar... Now we start to import supplies for ourselves and don't give a $#!t about our lying supplier.

Thailand is living on a giant soap bubble. It is what I already said in 2010 !!!

I predict a dollar rate of at least 39 THB on the dollar before this year ends... Prove me that I am wrong !!!

Utter piffle.

[Thai at Heart]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11854084/China-leading-world-towards-global-economic-recession-warns-Citi.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

China leading the world into recession......

So happy Thailand hooked it's carriage to China?

[chiang mai]

I stand by my 40 baht to the USD by 2016.

And that rate of 40Baht to the USD would, at last, reflect the real, intrinsic, value of the Baht, IMO. But the way rates are manipulated here by the BoT, who knows which 'preferred clients' the big guys there will need to serve to line their, deep pockets... Some Singaporian funds, or will it be a Malaysian ones, hush!

That's interesting. I said the same thing about BOT a few weeks ago and some muppet told me I was crazy. But the charts clearly show when they turn it on and off.

Glad I wasn't hallucinating. Glad he was in deep wishful thinking territory.

Trust me, you were hallucinating!

[chiang mai]

Blablablablablabla..

The reality is that Thai economy is going down the drain. It is not because of the rise of the dollar.

Today I heard from suppliers that the reason that prices went up (exanple from 18 THB to 45 THB /pc) were due to the rise of the Chinese Dollar... Now we start to import supplies for ourselves and don't give a $#!t about our lying supplier.

Thailand is living on a giant soap bubble. It is what I already said in 2010 !!!

I predict a dollar rate of at least 39 THB on the dollar before this year ends... Prove me that I am wrong !!!

if your suppliers are telling you the price increase is because of the 18/45% rise in the Chinese Dollar you're a mug, China doesn't use a currency by that name and its actual currency hasn't increased in value by anything like that amount. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/currency

As for your soap bubble theory: You were wrong in 2010 and five years later you're wrong yet again, I'd give up if I were you.

[zierf1]

Hey, what happened to that guy that said the Baht was unlikely to fall below 35??? Seems to be a moving target now. I think it will hit 40 soon.

[sandyf]

THAILAND: Given the recent sharp declines in the Thai baht vs the USD and the
likelihood of Fed lift-off soon, BOA Merrill Lynch strategists look at the
prospects of "sharp and disruptive capital outflows from Thailand" going
forward. "Our conclusions point to the possibility of tangible capital outflows
from a continued foreign sell - down of Thai stocks, more Thai investments
abroad given the limited investment opportunities in Thailand, and regulatory
changes that not only allow but encourage Thais to diversify their portfolio
investments abroad," they say. At the same time however, "Thailand's large
current account surplus (equaling 5% of GDP this year) and sizeable foreign
reserves provide ample buffers to minimize the likelihood that such unexpected
events could undermine the resilience of the Thai economy," they say. Overall,
they do not find any "apparent vulnerability that would trigger unmanageable
capital outflows from Thailand." USDTHB holds near Thb36.12, on the high side of
a Thb35.937/36.149 range. The pair topped out yesterday at Thb36.230, the
highest level seen since March 2009 (Thb36.438 March 2, 2009).