Baht likely to fall to 36.75 baht per US dollar at year-end

[webfact]

Baht likely to fall to 36.75 baht per US dollar at year-end



BANGKOK: - The weakening of Thai baht against the US dollar is likely to stay put for a longer period than earlier anticipated and importers are advised to resort to currency hedging to protect their business.

Mr Chow Kengchon, managing director of the Kasikornthai’s research centre, said Wednesday that the baht currency would continue to remain weakened against the US dollar due to uncontrollable external factor. Nevertheless, he said such a situation would not pose a business disadvantage as long as the Thai baht remains weak in the same level like other currencies in the region.

Mr Thiti Tantikulanant, an executive in capital market business of Kasikornthai Bank, suggested importers to secure currency hedging to reduce the risk for exchange fluctuation as the baht currency is likely to fluctuate until next year.

He anticipated the baht to weaken to 36.75 baht per US dollar at the end of this year as it was speculated that the US Federal Reserves would increase the interst rate by 0.25 basis points during a meeting on September 16-17.

The weakened baht currency corresponds with economic fundamentals and some sectors may be affected such as the importers and out-bound tour operators but the effects will be manageable, said Mr Kobsak Phutrakul, assistant president of Bangkok Bank.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/baht-likely-to-fall-to-36-75-baht-per-us-dollar-at-year-end

-- Thai PBS 2015-09-09

[thesetat2013]

OK so its the USA's fault again for the weakening baht. I will have to tell then embassy to keep up the good work then because it is making me rich changing dollar to baht now. Heheee

[worgeordie]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

[craigt3365]

It's been widely reported many currencies will weaken once the fed raises interest rates. A lot the "hot" money that flowed here during the QE programs will flow back. Nobody has a crystal ball, but with things the way they are now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the rate go to over 37.

Naam: where's your crystal ball??? LOL

[Jon Wetherall]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

[chiang mai]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

OK I'll bite, what was it that Thailand did that wrought havoc with the economy and why was the current fall in value of THB their fault?

[ExpatOilWorker]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

So it is all our fault, but we just don't know why it is our fault. Everything is clear now, or maybe it is not. I am not sure, but that is my own fault.

[IMA_FARANG]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

------------------------------

Due to uncontrollable external factor".

In short a slowdown in the Chinese economy and therefore a fall in Thai exports to China ..... but they don't dare say that directly.

However, as it says in the Bible, "They that hath eyes, let them see, and they that hath ears let them hear also".

[Naam]

It's been widely reported many currencies will weaken once the fed raises interest rates. A lot the "hot" money that flowed here during the QE programs will flow back. Nobody has a crystal ball, but with things the way they are now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the rate go to over 37.

Naam: where's your crystal ball??? LOL

my dogs took it away and forgot where they buried it

[lostoday]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

OK I'll bite, what was it that Thailand did that wrought havoc with the economy and why was the current fall in value of THB their fault?

Banks said Oct 2014 - TMB Bank plc, formerly known as Thai Military Bank, reckons the moment Thais will confidently dip into their spending money is just around the corner and that it will produce a “V-shaped” recovery. Economists at Siam Commercial Bank, also see a nice pick-up around the corner, with the economy returning to its potential of around 4.5% in 2015. And the Bank of Thailand, the central bank, agrees that things will soon improve.

Ask economists at the World Bank (which stopped lending to Thailand long ago because the country had become too rich) and the answer is different.

It surprises no one that Thailand’s economy has performed poorly over the past year. The country has suffered six months of political agitation; the absence of a proper government capable of handling fiscal policy since the end of 2013, when the prime minister at the time, Yingluck Shinawatra, dissolved parliament; and then a military coup in May.

An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/10/thailands-economy

So, there is your answer.

If you would like to know how to increase the GDP and the value of the baht it is no problem but I charge for that information. PM me for rates. PS I give a discount for democracies.

Edited September 9, 2015 by lostoday

[chiang mai]

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

OK I'll bite, what was it that Thailand did that wrought havoc with the economy and why was the current fall in value of THB their fault?

Banks said Oct 2014 - TMB Bank plc, formerly known as Thai Military Bank, reckons the moment Thais will confidently dip into their spending money is just around the corner and that it will produce a “V-shaped” recovery. Economists at Siam Commercial Bank, also see a nice pick-up around the corner, with the economy returning to its potential of around 4.5% in 2015. And the Bank of Thailand, the central bank, agrees that things will soon improve.

Ask economists at the World Bank (which stopped lending to Thailand long ago because the country had become too rich) and the answer is different.

It surprises no one that Thailand’s economy has performed poorly over the past year. The country has suffered six months of political agitation; the absence of a proper government capable of handling fiscal policy since the end of 2013, when the prime minister at the time, Yingluck Shinawatra, dissolved parliament; and then a military coup in May.

An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/10/thailands-economy

So, there is your answer.

If you would like to know how to increase the GDP and the value of the baht it is no problem but I charge for that information. PM me for rates. PS I give a discount for democracies.

Sorry but no, that's not a viable answer.

You start off by taking a shot at how poorly some Thai banks have forecast recovery in the Thai economy, a sin not suffered by banks in other economies of course, ahem! And then you talk about the World Bank having a different answer, whatever that might be! Reminds me somewhat of Christine Laggard forecasting that the economy of UK Plc would hit the skids, only to offer a grovelling apology two months later.

But then to the probable crux of what you've written, the reason the Thai economy is in the doldrums is because of the coup and this has been proven by studies of the economies of other countries post coup. Oh really!

History has shown that "political agitation" has had no lasting impact whatsoever on the Thai economy, even when there were tanks in the streets and snipers shooting people in temples, the economy remained robust, and as a bi-product, so did the currency.

I'm afraid matey that you've missed it all by a wide margin here, but I understand that it's just so easy to blame the coup or indeed, bash Thailand. Had you said a combination of capital outflows resulting from the US rate picture and a slow down in the Chinese (and global) economy were to blame I could have agreed with you and given you a like, as it stands I I'm headed in the opposite direction.

Edited September 9, 2015 by chiang mai

[whatawonderfulday]

Wrong translation. They mean the this weekend as it is 36.1 just now

[ehs818]

The baht will continue to weaken. But no one can predict to what level it will go. As for me, I'm going to get a funds transfer as soon as it hits 36.5.

[lostoday]

OK I'll bite, what was it that Thailand did that wrought havoc with the economy and why was the current fall in value of THB their fault?

Banks said Oct 2014 - TMB Bank plc, formerly known as Thai Military Bank, reckons the moment Thais will confidently dip into their spending money is just around the corner and that it will produce a “V-shaped” recovery. Economists at Siam Commercial Bank, also see a nice pick-up around the corner, with the economy returning to its potential of around 4.5% in 2015. And the Bank of Thailand, the central bank, agrees that things will soon improve.

Ask economists at the World Bank (which stopped lending to Thailand long ago because the country had become too rich) and the answer is different.

It surprises no one that Thailand’s economy has performed poorly over the past year. The country has suffered six months of political agitation; the absence of a proper government capable of handling fiscal policy since the end of 2013, when the prime minister at the time, Yingluck Shinawatra, dissolved parliament; and then a military coup in May.

An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/10/thailands-economy

So, there is your answer.

If you would like to know how to increase the GDP and the value of the baht it is no problem but I charge for that information. PM me for rates. PS I give a discount for democracies.

Sorry but no, that's not a viable answer.

You start off by taking a shot at how poorly some Thai banks have forecast recovery in the Thai economy, a sin not suffered by banks in other economies of course, ahem! And then you talk about the World Bank having a different answer, whatever that might be! Reminds me somewhat of Christine Laggard forecasting that the economy of UK Plc would hit the skids, only to offer a grovelling apology two months later.

But then to the probable crux of what you've written, the reason the Thai economy is in the doldrums is because of the coup and this has been proven by studies of the economies of other countries post coup. Oh really!

History has shown that "political agitation" has had no lasting impact whatsoever on the Thai economy, even when there were tanks in the streets and snipers shooting people in temples, the economy remained robust, and as a bi-product, so did the currency.

I'm afraid matey that you've missed it all by a wide margin here, but I understand that it's just so easy to blame the coup or indeed, bash Thailand. Had you said a combination of capital outflows resulting from the US rate picture and a slow down in the Chinese (and global) economy were to blame I could have agreed with you and given you a like, as it stands I I'm headed in the opposite direction.

What do you mean not a viable answer? Get a stable government to stop the economic slide. Doesn't take a brain trust to figure that one. History has shown An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup."

Thailand is not different (except in economic expertise) than any other country. I'm right. The numbers reflect I'm right and you are wrong.

Things haven't gone as hoped. Eight months later, capital is fleeing the country ($1.58 billion out of equities alone in the last 12 months). The economy is flirting with deflation and a possible recession; both consumer prices and the economy are growing at a meager 0.6 percent pace. Unless the government gets moving on long-postponed structural reforms, the economy could well slip into its own lost decade.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-22/thailand-coup-leaders-need-to-revamp-economy-faster

[flyingdoc]

Watching the £ rate as well !

[WhizBang]

Let's aim for 46 baht/$, shall we. I have my fingers crossed.

[Pib]

It's nice getting a pay raise due to a better exchange rate...especially for folks living on govt pension payments because the pension COLA increases sure haven't kept up with real world inflation.

[miamiman]

The Thai government said the Baht will weaken to 36.5 this 2015. I think we are looking at considerably more before the year is out. Next year looking at 40+ easily if things trend as they are now.

[godden]

Bring it on.

[chiang mai]

OK I'll bite, what was it that Thailand did that wrought havoc with the economy and why was the current fall in value of THB their fault?

Banks said Oct 2014 - TMB Bank plc, formerly known as Thai Military Bank, reckons the moment Thais will confidently dip into their spending money is just around the corner and that it will produce a “V-shaped” recovery. Economists at Siam Commercial Bank, also see a nice pick-up around the corner, with the economy returning to its potential of around 4.5% in 2015. And the Bank of Thailand, the central bank, agrees that things will soon improve.

Ask economists at the World Bank (which stopped lending to Thailand long ago because the country had become too rich) and the answer is different.

It surprises no one that Thailand’s economy has performed poorly over the past year. The country has suffered six months of political agitation; the absence of a proper government capable of handling fiscal policy since the end of 2013, when the prime minister at the time, Yingluck Shinawatra, dissolved parliament; and then a military coup in May.

An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/10/thailands-economy

So, there is your answer.

If you would like to know how to increase the GDP and the value of the baht it is no problem but I charge for that information. PM me for rates. PS I give a discount for democracies.

Sorry but no, that's not a viable answer.

You start off by taking a shot at how poorly some Thai banks have forecast recovery in the Thai economy, a sin not suffered by banks in other economies of course, ahem! And then you talk about the World Bank having a different answer, whatever that might be! Reminds me somewhat of Christine Laggard forecasting that the economy of UK Plc would hit the skids, only to offer a grovelling apology two months later.

But then to the probable crux of what you've written, the reason the Thai economy is in the doldrums is because of the coup and this has been proven by studies of the economies of other countries post coup. Oh really!

History has shown that "political agitation" has had no lasting impact whatsoever on the Thai economy, even when there were tanks in the streets and snipers shooting people in temples, the economy remained robust, and as a bi-product, so did the currency.

I'm afraid matey that you've missed it all by a wide margin here, but I understand that it's just so easy to blame the coup or indeed, bash Thailand. Had you said a combination of capital outflows resulting from the US rate picture and a slow down in the Chinese (and global) economy were to blame I could have agreed with you and given you a like, as it stands I I'm headed in the opposite direction.

What do you mean not a viable answer? Get a stable government to stop the economic slide. Doesn't take a brain trust to figure that one. History has shown An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup."

Thailand is not different (except in economic expertise) than any other country. I'm right. The numbers reflect I'm right and you are wrong.

Things haven't gone as hoped. Eight months later, capital is fleeing the country ($1.58 billion out of equities alone in the last 12 months). The economy is flirting with deflation and a possible recession; both consumer prices and the economy are growing at a meager 0.6 percent pace. Unless the government gets moving on long-postponed structural reforms, the economy could well slip into its own lost decade.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-22/thailand-coup-leaders-need-to-revamp-economy-faster

We do not agree, I do not accept the quality of the government is the sole root cause as you posted earlier, not a chance. And your empirical analysis is nonsense from an unreliable source that quotes averages and is contrary to recent history in Thailand. A useful quote here says much:

"While Thailand's military-led government is clearly aware of the need to avoid scaring off foreign investment, it remains to be seen whether the junta will be any better than its elected predecessors at attracting it".

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Junta-sends-clear-message-More-foreign-investment-a-must.

But I am pleased to see that you've amended your reasoning a little bit to include capital outflows, keep going, you're getting there, slowly.

[Jon Wetherall]

There are some folk who just will not acknowledge that a very poor quality government and it's extremely poor management of the economy can cause a slide, both in the value of the currency and the numbers of its economic performance generally, as reported by much more cl;ever people than me, who do so for a living.

If it wasn't at least in part due to this useless government, then perhaps it was magic? Voodoo? The fireball? Maybe we should all jog on down to the wat and make a nice bit of merit.

Hard to believe.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Jon Wetherall

[gandalf12]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

When they become a full member of ASEAN a lot of very hard lessons will come

[losworld]

I stand by my 40 baht to the USD by 2016.

[sabdart]

Does anyone really believe the Fed will do a rate rise this September?

[lostoday]

Banks said Oct 2014 - TMB Bank plc, formerly known as Thai Military Bank, reckons the moment Thais will confidently dip into their spending money is just around the corner and that it will produce a “V-shaped” recovery. Economists at Siam Commercial Bank, also see a nice pick-up around the corner, with the economy returning to its potential of around 4.5% in 2015. And the Bank of Thailand, the central bank, agrees that things will soon improve.

Ask economists at the World Bank (which stopped lending to Thailand long ago because the country had become too rich) and the answer is different.

It surprises no one that Thailand’s economy has performed poorly over the past year. The country has suffered six months of political agitation; the absence of a proper government capable of handling fiscal policy since the end of 2013, when the prime minister at the time, Yingluck Shinawatra, dissolved parliament; and then a military coup in May.

An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/10/thailands-economy

So, there is your answer.

If you would like to know how to increase the GDP and the value of the baht it is no problem but I charge for that information. PM me for rates. PS I give a discount for democracies.

Sorry but no, that's not a viable answer.

You start off by taking a shot at how poorly some Thai banks have forecast recovery in the Thai economy, a sin not suffered by banks in other economies of course, ahem! And then you talk about the World Bank having a different answer, whatever that might be! Reminds me somewhat of Christine Laggard forecasting that the economy of UK Plc would hit the skids, only to offer a grovelling apology two months later.

But then to the probable crux of what you've written, the reason the Thai economy is in the doldrums is because of the coup and this has been proven by studies of the economies of other countries post coup. Oh really!

History has shown that "political agitation" has had no lasting impact whatsoever on the Thai economy, even when there were tanks in the streets and snipers shooting people in temples, the economy remained robust, and as a bi-product, so did the currency.

I'm afraid matey that you've missed it all by a wide margin here, but I understand that it's just so easy to blame the coup or indeed, bash Thailand. Had you said a combination of capital outflows resulting from the US rate picture and a slow down in the Chinese (and global) economy were to blame I could have agreed with you and given you a like, as it stands I I'm headed in the opposite direction.

What do you mean not a viable answer? Get a stable government to stop the economic slide. Doesn't take a brain trust to figure that one. History has shown An empirical analysis of the impact of coups on other national economies shows that growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 and 0.2 in the first and second year after the coup."

Thailand is not different (except in economic expertise) than any other country. I'm right. The numbers reflect I'm right and you are wrong.

Things haven't gone as hoped. Eight months later, capital is fleeing the country ($1.58 billion out of equities alone in the last 12 months). The economy is flirting with deflation and a possible recession; both consumer prices and the economy are growing at a meager 0.6 percent pace. Unless the government gets moving on long-postponed structural reforms, the economy could well slip into its own lost decade.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-22/thailand-coup-leaders-need-to-revamp-economy-faster

We do not agree, I do not accept the quality of the government is the sole root cause as you posted earlier, not a chance. And your empirical analysis is nonsense from an unreliable source that quotes averages and is contrary to recent history in Thailand. A useful quote here says much:

"While Thailand's military-led government is clearly aware of the need to avoid scaring off foreign investment, it remains to be seen whether the junta will be any better than its elected predecessors at attracting it".

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Junta-sends-clear-message-More-foreign-investment-a-must.

But I am pleased to see that you've amended your reasoning a little bit to include capital outflows, keep going, you're getting there, slowly.

Capital is not running away from Thailand because of the USA or any other foreign influence. It is running out of Thailand because of historical experience with similar situations in other countries the same as Thailand. BTW last response to you as you are being patronizing and impolite.

[little mary sunshine]

Their estimates are always self-serving...I will not be

Surprised to see the Baht weaken to 39.5-40 by

Feb or March of 2016.

[Shiver]

I don't know the detail, but was under the impression that Thailand was *intentionally* going to devalue the baht.

Fed doing rate rise, I don't know how they can. I think they'd like to, but the system is in such a state that I'm not sure it could accommodate it.

[captspectre]

"Due to uncontrollable external factor", Heres me thinking it

was more an internal factor,well its always someone or somethings

fault.

regards worgeordie

Yes, but Thais will never admit that something they did wrought havoc on the economy, whatever it was.

It's always be the foreigners, and usually the westerners who don't understand Thai culture.

The problem is that they do understand and they don't swallow the BS. That's the real problem in a nutshell.

Some hard lessons coming.

OK I'll bite, what was it that Thailand did that wrought havoc with the economy and why was the current fall in value of THB their fault?

how abut the overthrow of two freely elected governments! also the curtailment of civil liberties? the stop and frisk of foreigners? the "tea"money expected if you get stopped for any reason? the list goes on!

[lostoday]

I don't know the detail, but was under the impression that Thailand was *intentionally* going to devalue the baht.

Fed doing rate rise, I don't know how they can. I think they'd like to, but the system is in such a state that I'm not sure it could accommodate it.

How would Thailand intentionally devalue the baht?

[BuaBS]

Does anyone really believe the Fed will do a rate rise this September?

Maybe 0,125 or 0,25 % , then the stockmarket crashes and boom QE 4 . I predict after start of QE4 the dollar will slide back to 32 THB.

But again , why is everybody bashing THB and Thai economy/government . Look around : Malaysia, India, Indonesia , all with weak currencies against de usd.