Thailand and China discuss progress in Chinese rail project

[Lite Beer]

Thailand and China discuss progress in Chinese rail project

BANGKOK, 10 October 2015 (NNT) - Thailand and China have discussed progress in a Chinese rail project which is going on smoothly in Thailand.

Thai Foreign Affairs Minister Don Paramatwinai, who met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during his official visit to China marking the 40th anniversary of Thailand-China diplomatic relations, said both parties have agreed to schedule the start-up phase of the rail project by the end of this year.

Besides, Thailand and China agreed to start a Lantsang-Mekong cooperation mechanism aimed to help countries along the international river realize common development interests through complementary cooperation.

The Thai foreign minister said Thailand was willing to strengthen cooperation on water resources, drought control and disaster relief under the mechanisms of the Lantsang-Mekong cooperation.

He also met with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and both pledged to strengthen the bilateral relationships.

-- NNT 2015-10-10

[clockman]

With Bangkok having the largest number of Chinese, of any city in the world. Outside China. 4 million. We can see the connections!

[Praematura]

It's great that by some estimates this project won't pay for itself for 200 years. Don't want to publicize small facts like this as one would question the folks that approved the use of funds. Corruption at its best financed by the Chinese. Sadly, these funds could be used more judiciously.

[retell]

The Thai foreign minister said Thailand was willing to strengthen cooperation on water resources, drought control and disaster relief under the mechanisms of the Lantsang-Mekong cooperation.

anybody want to elaborate ?

[zaphod reborn]

No mention as to the dispute over the cost of the project due to the construction of tunnels or the fact that China has lost its financial backing due to its economic situation?

[Srikcir]

"both parties have agreed to schedule the start-up phase of the rail project by the end of this year"

And yet less than a month ago a headline read: "Thailand-China railway project unlikely to begin in 2015," [2015-09-13]. The latest bilateral talks had found the project’s construction costs were higher than the Thai government’s estimation by 20-30%. Furthermore, Transport Minister Arkhom Termpitthayapaisit said that assessment of the anticipated income and operational costs still need to be made clear for the Bangkok-Kaeng Khoi and Kaeng Khoi to Nakhon Ratchasima sections.

Did the Thai government backoff for political considerations, ie., keep the Junta's original timetable at any cost? Ordinarily, a nation's legislative body might take issue with the government rushing into such a massive project. But with the Junta-appointed "rubberstamp" NLA there's not much chance of accountability.

[bendejo]

It's like the Thai guys are little boys on Christmas morning and China is Santa.

"I want a train!"

"I want a submarine, the kind that shoots missiles!"

And Santa says "what I want is a strategic military alliance."

Asian-style Christmas, quid pro quo.

[Srikcir]

It's great that by some estimates this project won't pay for itself for 200 years. Don't want to publicize small facts like this as one would question the folks that approved the use of funds. Corruption at its best financed by the Chinese. Sadly, these funds could be used more judiciously.

Sadly, the Thai government will only have a 30% equity in the project instead of 100%.

It would actually be better to have 100% equity that would maximize the project's contribution to GDP growth rate. It is the Chinese that will instead benefit the most in terms of GDP growth by lending funds to Thailand over a repayment period of 25 to 40 years including the nonpayment grace periods.

[soalbundy]

"both parties have agreed to schedule the start-up phase of the rail project by the end of this year"

And yet less than a month ago a headline read: "Thailand-China railway project unlikely to begin in 2015," [2015-09-13]. The latest bilateral talks had found the project’s construction costs were higher than the Thai government’s estimation by 20-30%. Furthermore, Transport Minister Arkhom Termpitthayapaisit said that assessment of the anticipated income and operational costs still need to be made clear for the Bangkok-Kaeng Khoi and Kaeng Khoi to Nakhon Ratchasima sections.

Did the Thai government backoff for political considerations, ie., keep the Junta's original timetable at any cost? Ordinarily, a nation's legislative body might take issue with the government rushing into such a massive project. But with the Junta-appointed "rubberstamp" NLA there's not much chance of accountability.

It is on schedule, the brown envelopes got a little fatter

[Oziex1]

Thailand is rapidly becoming China's bitch.

Some will do well, most will not.

[Eric Loh]

The cost of this rail project has not been established and not even discussed by the cabinet and go through the NLA. In normal democractic time, this project will be deemed unconstitutional and the ministers charged for negligence and malfeasance. The people will have to bear with the cost and loss of sovereignity after the junta leave office.

[Bender]

the dear leader is more busy signing contract than fighing corruption....

by the way how much did he (uncle Too) pocket invest in this scam project?

[JakeSully]

In 15 years China will have run out of drinking water.

Considering the migrant crisis using trains currently in Europe, do the thai's not foresee a problem building infrastructure so that a mass migration of 1 billion + from China can take place in 15 years?

[Ricardo]

It's great that by some estimates this project won't pay for itself for 200 years. Don't want to publicize small facts like this as one would question the folks that approved the use of funds. Corruption at its best financed by the Chinese. Sadly, these funds could be used more judiciously.

Sadly, the Thai government will only have a 30% equity in the project instead of 100%.

It would actually be better to have 100% equity that would maximize the project's contribution to GDP growth rate. It is the Chinese that will instead benefit the most in terms of GDP growth by lending funds to Thailand over a repayment period of 25 to 40 years including the nonpayment grace periods.

I disagree, the main beneficiary of the project is clearly China, which can then get its exports to the Thai ports and away to overseas-markets much quicker, there is only a secondary benefit for Thai domestic-passengers or exports Northwards.

Those Thai exports to China will help Thai GDP, so will the construction of that part of the line ( a small part), which lies within Thailand. But that's no reason to finance the whole of the cost of the entire project.

So it is entirely correct, that Thailand should only pay a minor share of the costs, of setting it up.

Perhaps Thailand can learn from helping the Chinese build the line, and later apply the knowledge to other internal projects, if there are indeed any which would pay back the investment ... a line across to Dawei might be one possibility. Doubling the metre-gauge tracks from north of Bangkok down to the Malaysian-border (where a double-track was recently completed on to Singapore) might be another possibility.

[connda]

It's great that by some estimates this project won't pay for itself for 200 years. Don't want to publicize small facts like this as one would question the folks that approved the use of funds. Corruption at its best financed by the Chinese. Sadly, these funds could be used more judiciously.

Sadly, the Thai government will only have a 30% equity in the project instead of 100%.

It would actually be better to have 100% equity that would maximize the project's contribution to GDP growth rate. It is the Chinese that will instead benefit the most in terms of GDP growth by lending funds to Thailand over a repayment period of 25 to 40 years including the nonpayment grace periods.

I disagree, the main beneficiary of the project is clearly China, which can then get its exports to the Thai ports and away to overseas-markets much quicker, there is only a secondary benefit for Thai domestic-passengers or exports Northwards.

Those Thai exports to China will help Thai GDP, so will the construction of that part of the line ( a small part), which lies within Thailand. But that's no reason to finance the whole of the cost of the entire project.

So it is entirely correct, that Thailand should only pay a minor share of the costs, of setting it up.

Perhaps Thailand can learn from helping the Chinese build the line, and later apply the knowledge to other internal projects, if there are indeed any which would pay back the investment ... a line across to Dawei might be one possibility. Doubling the metre-gauge tracks from north of Bangkok down to the Malaysian-border (where a double-track was recently completed on to Singapore) might be another possibility.

Nice to see someone else has an understanding of what going on in Asia at the macro level. It goes over the head's of most beer swilling, bar-girl chasing expats or even though who lock themselves in gated communities, or limit their exposure to the surrounding cultures and the interaction of the surrounding countries domestically and internationally.

This is part of China's New Silk Road strategy. Google it. You might want to add "Pepe Escobar" to the search as well. He has a good handle on ME/NA and Asian issues and current affairs. He written about and is a correspondent on The New Silk Road.

[Srikcir]

It's great that by some estimates this project won't pay for itself for 200 years. Don't want to publicize small facts like this as one would question the folks that approved the use of funds. Corruption at its best financed by the Chinese. Sadly, these funds could be used more judiciously.

Sadly, the Thai government will only have a 30% equity in the project instead of 100%.

It would actually be better to have 100% equity that would maximize the project's contribution to GDP growth rate. It is the Chinese that will instead benefit the most in terms of GDP growth by lending funds to Thailand over a repayment period of 25 to 40 years including the nonpayment grace periods.

I disagree, the main beneficiary of the project is clearly China, which can then get its exports to the Thai ports and away to overseas-markets much quicker, there is only a secondary benefit for Thai domestic-passengers or exports Northwards.

Those Thai exports to China will help Thai GDP, so will the construction of that part of the line ( a small part), which lies within Thailand. But that's no reason to finance the whole of the cost of the entire project.

So it is entirely correct, that Thailand should only pay a minor share of the costs, of setting it up.

Perhaps Thailand can learn from helping the Chinese build the line, and later apply the knowledge to other internal projects, if there are indeed any which would pay back the investment ... a line across to Dawei might be one possibility. Doubling the metre-gauge tracks from north of Bangkok down to the Malaysian-border (where a double-track was recently completed on to Singapore) might be another possibility.

This rail system will also deliver massive amounts of Chinese agricultural products into the Thai market. The history of chinese import strategy shows China likes to dominate the local markets by dumping their products at below market discounts. There has been no discussion between the Prayut government and farmers on how to deal with this threat to their livelihood. Maybe it will just be Prayut's "Go find a new job."

[anon4546543]

It is jusr a railway that will allow Chinese goods to be sent to a port, without going around the Malaysian/ Singapore peninsular. Get a grip all you doomsdayers. Loved some of your posts though. xenophobia at its most extreme and funniest posts for a long time.

[Ricardo]

This rail system will also deliver massive amounts of Chinese agricultural products into the Thai market. The history of chinese import strategy shows China likes to dominate the local markets by dumping their products at below market discounts. There has been no discussion between the Prayut government and farmers on how to deal with this threat to their livelihood. Maybe it will just be Prayut's "Go find a new job."

The Free Trade Agreement between Thailand & China dates back to 2003, and Thai farmers have already suffered as a result of it, I agree. Several governments have struggled with the consequences.

https://aric.adb.org/fta/peoples-republic-of-china-thailand-free-trade-agreement

One can remember the late-PM Samak, recommending Thais to use local garlic when cooking, rather than cheaper & allegedly-inferior Chinese stuff.

There was also the infamous dried-longan scandal, another example of Thailand getting the mucky-end-of-the-stick, trying to send Thai agricultural products to China.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/564308-govt-spending-bt42-billion-to-cover-up-thaksins-botched-policy/

But I'd argue that the long-term economic aim for China's railroad-to-the-South was always for moving containerized-exports, initially down to Singapore, but now to closer Laem-Chabang instead.

Local agricultural-trade, whether it's Thai rice being sent North or Chinese products moving South, is surely a lower-priority than China's manufacturing-exports to the rest of the world.

So too is making limited use of the line, for improving domestic-travel links to the North-East, the economic case for building a new line purely for that would be very weak IMO. But it does make sense for Thailand to achieve whatever gain for passenger-transport is possible, if the line is to be built anyway, as the Chinese (the primary moving force) intend.

And improving domestic-travel helps governments, of whatever colour, sell the idea of allowing the line to be built across Thai soil.

Edited October 11, 2015 by Ricardo

[trainman34014]

It's great that by some estimates this project won't pay for itself for 200 years. Don't want to publicize small facts like this as one would question the folks that approved the use of funds. Corruption at its best financed by the Chinese. Sadly, these funds could be used more judiciously.

Sadly, the Thai government will only have a 30% equity in the project instead of 100%.

It would actually be better to have 100% equity that would maximize the project's contribution to GDP growth rate. It is the Chinese that will instead benefit the most in terms of GDP growth by lending funds to Thailand over a repayment period of 25 to 40 years including the nonpayment grace periods.

I disagree, the main beneficiary of the project is clearly China, which can then get its exports to the Thai ports and away to overseas-markets much quicker, there is only a secondary benefit for Thai domestic-passengers or exports Northwards.

Those Thai exports to China will help Thai GDP, so will the construction of that part of the line ( a small part), which lies within Thailand. But that's no reason to finance the whole of the cost of the entire project.

So it is entirely correct, that Thailand should only pay a minor share of the costs, of setting it up.

Perhaps Thailand can learn from helping the Chinese build the line, and later apply the knowledge to other internal projects, if there are indeed any which would pay back the investment ... a line across to Dawei might be one possibility. Doubling the metre-gauge tracks from north of Bangkok down to the Malaysian-border (where a double-track was recently completed on to Singapore) might be another possibility.

This rail system will also deliver massive amounts of Chinese agricultural products into the Thai market. The history of chinese import strategy shows China likes to dominate the local markets by dumping their products at below market discounts. There has been no discussion between the Prayut government and farmers on how to deal with this threat to their livelihood. Maybe it will just be Prayut's "Go find a new job."

By the time the railway is actually built (if it ever is) and not being just talked about Prayut will be ashes and so will a lot of us as the way things are it will most likely be 2040 and beyond before any trains are running. No serious costings have been presented as yet and with every passing day the enormous cost burden of building new railways to modern safety standards is going up literally by the minute. The frightening costs of such projects will most likely mean the whole idea is binned by this Junta or the next elected Government or two, that is with a Coup or two in between Talk is cheap and so are dreams....and Thailand has plenty of both.